1500 Posts At Winging It!

Thanks all for reading.!!!!

Notes:

May 2016 Viet Jet ordered 100 Max 200's

*February 2019 Viet Jet Ordered 80 737 Max 10s 
                                                20 737 Max 8s
*Bamboo Air                             10 787-9s (10 787 + 25 Max in Talks/Options)
                              Total Today:110 Booked 

Vietnam has firmed 210 (Viet Jet 100 (2016) +100 (2019) Bamboo 10 787-9s) Boeing aircraft with option and intents remaining for a growing industry in the region with Bamboo Airways yet to firm its single-aisle equipment needs.

2/28/2019 who wins the BA order bid 777X or the A350-1000? Only hours away for the answer.

Randy Tinseth On Airshow Approach

Here is a break for Boeing-o-philes. A Randy Tinseth looks at Boeing Thinking.

2018 Dubai Airshow

Farewell A-380 You Are Changing The Market On Departure

When the A-380 is last produced in 2021 it will affect the market significantly by making Twin Engine behemoths, the new aviation rock stars. Enter the 777X and the A-350-1000 for which Airbus contemplates a 777X killer called an A-350-2000. The 2000 lineage from Airbus would indicate plus 400 seats but how will it match what Boeing is trying with its 777Xs?

1. Starting with Boeing's folding wing, Airbus won't match it
2. Enlarging A-350 windows will be done in some other shape
3. Fixing 400 plus seats Airbus will accomplish
4. Flying lighter than the 777X frame is an Airbus accomplishment
5. Having seat/mile costs the lowest is a Boeing win.
6. Boeing has the Engine GE9X, Rolls just dreams about it.
7. Boeing 777X program timing is on the cusp of the A-380 demise
8. Pricing of both the 777X and A-350-2000 is a push
9. The market has room for just one Aircraft maker for the size of the airplane class
10. Boeing owns the pole position in this race and the 777X becomes the industry standard.

The 7478F and A-380 are under the microscope where the 7478F remains to have a freight market sewed up. It will be built for the next 20 years as a stablemate with the 777-8XF or 9XF going forward much like the 767 has done over the last 10 years. The A-380 is basically done by 2021 where Airbus will unleash resources to counter Boeing's effort with new airframe offerings.

Bamboo Bang For Buck Is 787 For Ten

Bamboo just signed for 10 more 787's while President Trump viewed on during his summit visit to the Far East with NK Leaders. The Vietnam based airline already has 20  787 on firm orders and this 10 just signed will increase the Boeing fold to 30 787's.

"The carrier, which is owned by property and leisure company FLC Group and made its first flights in January, placed a provisional order last year for 20 Boeing 787 widebody jets worth $5.6 billion at list prices." is reported.

The word provisional sticks out the most as Bamboo seems it has not firmed the first 20 at this time. However, it firmed 10 with the Trump visit and is new and separate from the 20 it provisioned last year. This indicates Boeing and Bamboo have not yet settled on a price for 20 but Bamboo is still intending on those first 20 it had committed to buy.

In all, Bamboo is looking for the lowest price per plane as it already has higher priced A350's in its fleet. The 787 will cover the same market the A-350 covers. If Bamboo's 20 787 are firmed in 2019 then Bamboo will have added 30 787's to Boeing's bookings.

Pre and Post Lion Air Crash Boeing 737 Max Sales

The months August, September, and October saw Boeing book 132 sales of its Max to Customers. The post-Lion Air crash three months accumulated 266 737 Orders. President Trump will sign for 100 Viet Jets orders this month in a diplomatic gesture to Vietnam. January saw 28 737's signed, including military 737's and unidentified. The year 2019 has been a continuation of Boeing's sales run in the summary. The Lion Air 737 Max crash killing 189 has not dampened Boeing's sales momentum for its 737 Max line of aircraft. ANA is buying 20 Max with the other 100 mentioned it brings the total Max ordered since the October  2018, accident to 386 Max ordered.

The argument continues between Boeing and the accident investigators what the appropriate measure Boeing should take when assisting on fixing how this type of accident may never happen again. To explain what happened at this time is premature until the final accident report is issued. It's clear the accident occurred from a series of misunderstandings from the pilot with his 737 Max in distress. The plane nosed into the ocean, going full throttle killing everyone. It's complicated to cipher what went wrong these many months later. However, procurement for single-aisle Max has not slowed, so the reasoning continues as does the buying. Boeing is fixing its instruction to pilots and making software changes promising the 737 Max was safe to fly in the first place but these adjustments will make it more secure to pilots unfamiliar with the Max after the NG version in service.

Gleaning The 777X To-do Field

Gleaning is a long used biblical word. Taking what's left over after the harvest. The technology harvest installed the 777X first flight airplane. Gleaning takes the time to pick up every loose grain found in the field. That is what happens to the 777X until sometime in March when First Flight rolls out the factory doors. Dozens of people with clipboards and testers in hand are checking every rivet, bolt, or electrical panel. Technicians in other rooms are even plugged into the big jet for running its software in a proforma attitude checking to see if any code does not perform in a situational awareness test of what if's.

Suppose if there is a crosswind of 50,  what flap will do what? Now you get it, its mind boggling how much Boeing has to do before first flying copy rolls out.  This is no 787 rollout on 7-7-07. It's not a plastic hulk for photo ops. This example is meant to fly soon after its rollout. Engines are ready and the tires on this rollout will be airborne soon after the cupcakes are eaten by those in attendance.

Therefore, my impatience is calmed, knowing people are pulling over-time, in order for its first flight is the goal by late next month. Sometime in 2020, Lufthansa will demonstrate to its customer what a deal they made buying the first 777-9 ticket. The oohs and awes will sell more of the same next time launched. The take-off with the GE-9's will warmly hum in the cabin and soon the most disturbing sound is someone snoring. "Wake that passenger, I want to hear the crinkling of my first 777-9 candy wrapper" goes the child in me.

Therefore my inpatients are only mitigated by countless web browsing sessions under the heading of 777X.

Viet Jet 2018 Deal Confuses Trump's visit

Last year at Farnborough there was an MOU deal with Viet Jet for 100 737 Max for 13 billion US. However, some reported Boeing reported this on its unidentified order book. There were 125 Max booked on December 24,2018 as those unidentified isn't a Farnborough date nor 100 units leaving it to booking 125 737 jets on one date late in December of 2018. The question arises who did Boeing book for 125 737 Max on December 24, 2018, as unidentified? Donald Trump is going to Vietnam to talk to Kim Jung Un of North Korea fame and sign a deal for 100 Viet Jets at the same time which doesn't look at all like the mystery of 125 737's on December  24, 2018, found on Boeing's book.

So going forward it seems like Boeing should add 100 Viet Jet's MOU coming from 2018 to Boeing's 2019 book for 20 737-Max 8 and 80 737 Max 10's which doesn't align well with Airbus' vision for progress in the market place. If Boeing already did book those orders in late December 2018, as unidentified, then the MOU from Viet Jet has turned into a firm order just a few months ago. Its something to watch for on Boeing's book after Trump's visit. Boeing could be amassing an early lead over Airbus for orders in 2019. Single-aisle orders do matter as Boeing beat Airbus last year with the single-aisle order class numbers.

An Airbus A321XLR decision Is What Boeing Wants

If Airbus does announce the A321XLR shortly that is exactly what Boeing wanted in it's overarching strategy. An Airbus single-aisle airplane against an NMA dual aisle Boeing. Some say an A321XLR will cause Boeing to lose the gap competition. The jury still is out on that particular notion. Some say Boeing must reduce its 797 build costs which are now holding Boeing back. The sunk cost on such an NMA has already been spent and will not be included with the price of a Boeing NMA.

Boeing is going big or not at all in the current situation. "Big", being something new and something affordable in a new niche. The A321XLR can do this but the Boeing proposal far outclasses the Airbus ideas. The 797 will be dual aisle with big windows for all. It will fly 5,000 miles comfortably at seven seats across. The A321XLR will stretch longer at 6 seats across. The A321XLR may take its energy forward it has gained in the market place during the last ten years, but the 797 will overcome that energy with an all-new offering for the same cost of the A321XLR. Time has come to lay down the cards that are held. However, Airbus will lay down its hand first and that is the game Boeing is playing since it holds a card Airbus doesn't have.

Boeing's False Flag Strategy

Let's face it, Boeing can do what it wants whether it's a "moon shot" capsule and all, or an A-380 type of aircraft, but it would rather have, is its juvenile competitor build a prideful A-380 instead. Even after Boeing understood its own 747 was ready to haul the last remaining DoDo birds found on the planet, Boeing simply wanted the Airbus A350 to come until its own 787 entrenched itself in the market place. Notice Boeing has firmed up over 1,400 orders where the A350 has firmed up over 800 orders. Including the A330 line its only about 1,000 WB's on the books.

Now Boeing is launching the 777X soon and that gamble comes from 777300ER success and more savvy studying of the aviation market. The 777X has patented folding wings and Airbus will definitely go bigger with an A-350-2000 hoping to park it within expanding airports. It almost sounds juvenile again as was experienced with its now dead A-380 market. The 777X is the airplane Airbus can't build, no matter how self-centered it becomes. It's just a Euro thing. Boeing's play is coming from all its data.

You know data is the thing that Boeing amasses along with big aero wings that fold. Boeing can incrementally expand that fold by several meters on each side and still land at every major airport in the world. So Boeing added about 7 meters or 3.5 meters a side or 11 feet of lift per side to make the wing go from 213 feet to 235 feet. Airbus will have to make new airports to make its own rendition compete well with the 777X. Airbus is contemplating a 777X killer with an A-350-2000.

What it won't have are the 777X passenger's body width and that folding wing. It also won't have Boeing's passenger windows. It can make a facsimile aircraft but this would lack the Boeing toner of systems and the GE9x engine. Rolls Royce again could make a bigger engine for an A-350-2000, which is what they are probably working on today in a scale up from its current  787/A380 Trent 900-1000 to a Trent 2000 and so forth. 

Yeah, Airbus can do a knock-off,  but Boeing has already knocked-off Airbus in this game as Airbus plays the juvenile airplane builder. The Boeing false flags (laughing all the way to the bank) have made Airbus blink.

The 777X, Now What, The NMA?

So say, Dennis Muilenburg, CEO Boeing at a recent conference. Once the 777X is launched assuming first delivery because it has already a launch announcement since 2012. Then the "launch" of its  NMA, assuming a launch announcement because it won't say until Dennis Muilenburg says so! Now we know the time schedule for the NMA notice (797) and it points to well... Paris 2019?.

Listen from this Link

Or watch This

DJ Aviation Thinks So

Reading tea leaves is a blogger purpose. These scant tea leaves are all about some kind of launch point for some kind of phase during program development. It is left to others to suppose its way from here to there. So I suppose.

The 777X launch 1 is complete. It has booked 300 units for the 777X. Launch 2 is coming in March when the first flying example rolls out Boeing's doors about next mid-month. Launch 3 is when the first delivery is made in 2020 to Lufthansa. I do believe Muellinburg is talking about launch 2 coming next month and not launch 3 with its main launch customer, Lufthansa. 

Paris Airshow falls between launch #2 and launch #3 so the NMA is on the hot seat at this very moment. Boeing has been gathering data, well, forever and that the old excuse has worn thin where people just smile when Boeing rolls out another big shot who harrumphs his way through the words "still studying" the NMA. The current "study" is about engine maker and what seats will be shown on the Paris Airshow big screen. There are several engine makers vying for that honor and Safran, PW, and Rolls have long since made its final engine pitches for 50,000 lbs of thrust because that's what they already do as a business, to begin with.

Engines are further along than a sketch at this point. An NMA engine is already burning on a test block somewhere in the Midwest under the mask of some fuel-efficient  R&D test you don't need to know about! So it's up to the Paris Airshow demonstrating how cup holders can deftly slide in and out of armrests of airline seats on an NMA. That's how far Boeing's study has gone. Three test bed fuel burning engines and cup holders. That must be the study position at this very moment because Boeing has already built a few airplanes and they have that down well. Boeing already knows how many customers will order and in what numbers, because they hired more NMA specific build engineers (1,000+) and "it's is waiting for more data?" Naw, Airbus doesn't believe that because it wouldn't be toying with its A321 into infinity and beyond spending 100's of million on some kinda aviation pooka.

Dennis, you are silly collecting more NMA data because the answer was made to build it when the idea was first slipped out to its stock-holders, years ago. 

Me, "you are looking at building an NMA to fill the proverbial gap mentioned at every press conference!" 

Yes, we are all stupid and Boeing's comments show that. The Hoax That Wasn't", is just a tittle of a Boeing book when numbering the pre-sales made for a flying pooka. Money isn't spent over 10 years studying a decision. That only happens in the encyclopedia business which is no longer in fashion. Going to the dentist is easier with having your wisdom teeth pulled and stitches strung in gums than buying into the idea that further studies are needed before we can announce the NMA. "Can we just all get along", says Rodney King from LA fame. 

The next NMA PR speech I would like to write and here it is in Boeing speak.

"A new study has been "launched". The NMA study is for launch #3 of the 777X, which is included. Boeing has to determine where in the market to make an NMA's first delivery and when it should occur since we have 12 launch customers in-waiting back at the Boeing Castle. It looks like if we make a launch for a 797, it will be a customer based north of the equator. If that decision is to be made it will need another study before deciding how far North of the Equator the launch customer will reside. We, Boeing, can't launch an NMA until after 100 first deliveries are made to 12 customers. It will be important to its business decision whether the NMA can deliver in a timely manner to 12 customers in its first year." (applause from the minion). 

Boeing is also working on a new Yo-Yo as its studies billions of yo-yo's that have been used and it indicates future development for the yo-yo is promising. Boeing is looking at a new string to reel in its massive wheel. Boeing is trying to determine if the wheel really works in everyday life before it announces the results. Boeing also laid-off the "no guts no glory" sign holder from its Everett, Wa street corner near the Puget Sound, as a study is conducted whether or not glory will fit into its market."