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Wednesday, February 20, 2019

After The 777X Flies, The Aviation Pigs Say 797 At Paris

"All that oinking and so many pavilions", screams Paris 2019 airshow. 

The 777X first flight is holding the 797 off the news pages and the internet. Boeing is not dithering the announcement it has already foreshadowed its existence. Dither is an F-bomb without the letter F fronting its spelling. Boeing knows and it won't tell because the game is afoot said, Sherlock.  Paris is the target no doubt when the 797 idea takes first flight at the big pavilion in the sky. It will indeed hold 220-260 passengers and supplant the 737-9 and 737-10. Embraer will build up a 185 seat lineage from its playbook that Boeing bought on an 80% down payment for anything single. That is the rumor. Enjoy!

A Longer Wing Makes The L/D Ratio Better

The Liftndrag blog of Winging It has a new kid on the block and its Boeing's longer 777X wing. It folds, it flies and lifts better than any other WB wing in the world. Boeing did it, not Winging It but the metaphor if the L/D is not lost on Wining It. The folding wing is Winging Its answer to blogging and the 777X is coming next year to Lufthansa Airlines.  It is (Lufthansa) excited and so Winging It is excited and so forth.

The drag is taken out of aviation when reading this blog. Just unfold its pages and you will see the advent of spell-check and Grammarly.   and then you know how the lift overcomes the drag of this Winging It blog. This edition is just an inhale of the metaphor of why its called "Winging It" and looking further you will note its found at liftndrag.blogspot.com. And that link name is no accident at its inception. Boeing's 777X folding wing aircraft is a journey from the beginning when it featured back in December of 2012 the "

The 777X Project Is Going Underground Call It Project X



LiftnDrag awakens with articles like this in the above in link.

Seven Years and the 777X to show for it. Go Boeing you fly your opus.

Monday, February 18, 2019

Where Is Boeing Going?

The quick and dirty of it all. This is without punditry attached!


Going to Embraer 190- ???,  a new 737 based on Ryan Air's 737-200c
Going From:   its 737-7-8,     

Quick and dirty analysis. Boeing bought Embraer for new series line replacing the 737 lower ends of the line and then it has moved towards the upper end of 737 line and with adding new 797 models by 2030.

Fill in your own thoughts with this supposition.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Two Philosophies 747 and A380

Boeings approach to airplane building is centered on the airline the Airbus approach is centered on the passenger.

It is best said the A380 was built for passengers and not accountants and the 747-8i was an accounting adjustment for airlines. Both carried the moniker of a "Heavy". However, this approach carries through to all of the respective Airbus and Boeing product lines. Airbus is built for passenger sensory organs and Boeing is for accountants wanting performance over posterior. Hence the A-380 lost the battle as Boeing continues to build 747-8F freighters for its customers. Some even think if the 747-8F continues long enough in production, allowing an order for the 747-8i to materialize again in the next five years and after the A-380 is long put to rest.

What is the best final approach for the aircraft industry? Performance or Posterior? The answer will come as fuel price increases and routes are congested. The 747 concept has an afterlife but it has to have two engines instead of four. The 777X is probably the best example of performance coming to the forefront and Boeing holds that key.

A quick mention of the A-350-1000 as a long-range high-density people hauler falls short of the 777X. I would be foolish not to mention recent cancellations from Etihad for its 777X of about 20 units, but Etihad canceled 42 a-350's at the same time! A tiny Boeing phyric victory. However, is this an indication of what is to come for the 777X and its customers? The answer is a resounding no! The industry is in shock over the A380 as a symbolic Boeing beater is laid to rest. Companies like Etihad have found tall grass in which to adjust their accounting problems with the A-380 demise. The 777X reduction is more of an indicator of Etihad financial distress and the A380 collapse is good cover for this type of fleet reorganization. Etihad rapidly becomes a 2nd tier airline while Qatar and Emirates become the big 2 (top tier) Middle East Carriers (ME 2 (3)). 

But there is demand out in airline world. Where one airline retreats another picks up the order slack and don't count Etihad out entirely. It has the scent of 777X blood in its nostrils and it should come back and order another 6 777X's in five years with a reasonable Boeing offer as a tailwind. Boeing just has to get this airplane into customers hands before another accounting adjustment is made in the aviation world.

Boeing's accounting approach for new models is baffling Airbus as they try to beat Boeing from a posterior position instead of performance for the accountants. Customers may like the extra five inches in  A-350 over the  787 in cabin size, but Boeing bet passengers would put up with a 17 1/2" seat compared with an 18" wide seat on an A-350, as an example.

The 777X solves the posterior position Airbus has taken. It can go ten abreast at 18" per passenger seat wide. The A350-1000 is stuck with this problem where it can change its configuration without billions backing a change. Boeing has leaped frog Airbus making the A350 an obsolete choice but still an interesting proposition for airlines. The 777X is a fine wine needing some aging before passengers get to taste its finer points. Even though Etihad is broke it will come back and revisit the 777X order book but within its own successful planning of fleet dynamics. It will never compete with Emirates on a one to one basis. The market is getting saturated and Emirates has momentum in fleet planning to stay ahead of its competitors. Performance over posterior wins and Airbus knows it.

Thursday, February 14, 2019

What Is Known As The Emirates 40 Is Orphaned

Now it lays at Boeing's feet. Emirates has signed for 40 787-10 in the midst of its reshuffling fortune as it cancels out the A-380 and soothes the Airbus customers by sliding over to the A330 NEO and A350 orders for a total of 70 airplanes, but no word as of yet what it will do with its LOI Boeing 787-10s order for forty. Herein lies the puzzle, and one clue has already been exposed. The clue is in all this bluster of trading A-380's for the 40 A330 NEOs and 30 A350 WBs with no mentioned of canceling the 40 LOI 787-10's.

It means that Emirates is not done yet as it reaffirms six 777X's coming on board. Emirates could close the Boeing case with a large additional order by expanding it to greater than 150 777X units as it already intends on. The forty LOI 787-10 gained by Emirates during 2017 is a card in play for pricing reduction and a build schedule. Boeing will blink and give Emirates a low ball price on 20 787-10's and then sign on for another 777X 20 by signing for 5, 777-8x and 15, 777-9X with special pricing. The delivery duration will be a strung out affair over the next dozen years as the Emirate fleet flexes and grows during its aviation cycles. Boeing will save face and hunker down with its gains during this Emirates fleet reshuffle. 

Emirates needs time and opportunity to adjust its fleet operations with the 70 Airbus WB's and another potential 40 Boeing WB if acted upon. It is important to note Emirates has about 148 older 777's in its fleet today and could easily replace those 777 classics on a one for one basis with its current 777X order book. It was dabbling with the 787-10 but the 40 A330 NEO's and 30 A-350 orders may negate having the 787-10's at all. Drawing a 5,000 mile from Dubai includes all of Africa, Europe and the complete near east. This is billions of potential passengers for Emirates.

Having only 20 787-10 in your fleet underutilizes a business case on one of the world's busiest corners. There is potential room in the Emirates scheme of things to fit in the 787-10 on high-density routes with an unmatched seat mile efficiency not found in the Airbus product. Emirates can go back to both Airbus and Boeing and re-write the order book. Since no cancellation proclamation has been made on Emirates 40 787-10's, it is assumed another shoe will drop explaining the outcome of the LOI. Emirates could just simply drop LOI for 40 at this time but it looks like there is more blood to squeeze out of that turnip in the meantime.

Farewell A-380

And don't let the big, door hit you on the way out. The 747 will have no peer by 2021 but will the 747 still exist by 2021? Some optimists say yes. I say maybe. But all-in-all the 747 remains on the shelf and not below in the garbage bin as the A380 is headed via a Valentine's Day A380 massacre by Airbus announcing its demise.

The long-awaited jumbo airplane stare down has ended and the 747 wins? As it makes presidential airplanes and many freighters. It may stay alive once four engines can operate as efficiently as two big ones or perhaps two big ones will fly a 747 freighter-8F by 2025. It could happen if a market is once again found, but it will take new 747 engine technology to find that market. The 747 does have freight space without engine efficiency but it makes it a substantial freighter even with older engine technology.

Gone is the passenger model but it could reoccur if the price and demands are right. Demand would be overcrowded hubs the A380 could not fit in with, during its 14-year tenure once production for its type ends.

A four hundred seats two engine behemoth could be made under the right circumstances called a 747-9c(c=contentinental). a 5,000 miles people freighter from mega hub to mega-hub. It would be simple for Boeing to make a case than Airbus could, even on a Valentine's Day massacre day.

A 747 twin is a 747 frame with 777 attributes imbued into its being going from New York to Hawaii or to Paris. Boeing wouldn't do it for anything less than 300 frames ordered through its immediate life cycle. 

Or in other words, could it get 300 747-9C's ordered by 2030? If not, forget about it. A 747-9C is a blogger's delight with no reality attached to it. Four engines are so Victorian when you can have a GE 9X hanging on the wings.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

It's January Airbus And It Shows

The airplane booking count falls to Boeing during January as Airbus eats a negative 23 cancelations with 8 of them coming from Qantas for 8 A-380's, orders it long held. It sounds like the A380 program has matured right into the Airbus dumpster.

Boeing has nothing to shout about as it did accumulate 43 net orders during the month. There where 18 unidentified 787's ordered with a posting of 25 737 type frames ordered for both military or commercial operations. The summary opinion for the two is it's too early to tell what is happening in the market place. The Airbus rewind will close down its A-380 orders on the book with Emirates and add some A-350 orders and probably damage Boeing's 787-10 40 units documented on its LOI with Emirates.

A good outcome for Boeing would be having Emirates replace its backlogged of near 40 A380's with about 20 A350-1000's and then split the Boeing 787-10 order in half with an additional 777X's at a later date. It would give Emirates time to fit the fleet expansion and renewal in a seamless process when it dumps the A350. There are just so many charter airplane services wanting an A380 around the world and Airbus would really help Emirates out with the A380 disposition, as it would take multiples of A350-1000's during a trade-off. Boeing would do well to assist these players with supporting sentiments as Emirates rewrites its fleet plans with Airbus product in the wings.

Monday, February 11, 2019

The 777X Is Built To Fit

Boeing took a new tack over the A-380. Airbus builds out of pride driven concepts where Boeing is reflecting Stock Holder sentiment through its 777X concept. It will just fit into airports and not make passengers look for cup holders situated a new 777 model. The 777X is coming for passenger sensibility and airport compliance. Don't move that bulldozer just add more boarding seats at the 777X gate.

The A-380 is experiencing an old saying, "pride cometh before the fall". It's big and passenger hip as a turtle neck sweater from the seventies demonstrated. The 777X is the new black dress. The A-380 is so 2007. Right up there with Hemi engines and four-barrel carburetors.  Everyone loves the V-10 Hemi pickup truck from Ram. Go buy one and the price is right.

Back to fitting in and stockholder pleasing gestures from Boeing is the 777X soon to fly near a Puget Sound near you. I guess the 777X won't find its stroke until 2020 when more orders flood in!

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Perhaps, Boeing Wants To Close On Some 787 Deals Before Announcing The 797

For a long time, Boeing has stated it does not want to cannibalize the 787 order book before announcing its up and coming 797 announcements.  Perhaps that sentiment is true and its working to protect its 787 order book and delivering more 787 before announcing the 797 programs. Besides waiting for an engine maker decision for the 797 this is a true belief from the ranks of Boeing's board and marketing gurus.

The old relationship terminology would add "it's complicated" to its 797 lexicon.  However, it doesn't stop Winging It from considering the why's and what's going on with Boeing. The main thing is to keep the main thing, the main thing! The 797 is the main thing after-all. I can't determine where the balance of power is on the 797 concepts. I am still working with the Chicken or the egg problem and have determined it's all a scrambled mess.

But the good news is having an opinion where the bad news is your opinion really is a bunch of hooey. Here is my opinion with hooey at no extra charge. The 797 is waiting for its engine before laying an egg. The Chicken lives a long life in spite of fast food drive-throughs. The 797 is coming to a theatre near you by 2020.

Friday, February 8, 2019

A Sea Change Is On The Way And Boeing and Airbus Grapple

The "Sea Change", is the battle between Airbus and Boing with Emirates being the key to this impactful event. Who will win the day? There are before and after scenarios which can be used to out think Emirates position in this matter. 

The gauntlet thrown down by Emirates comes from its mid-market correction. The A380 fails to meets Emirates needs for it to be competitive in the wide-body market. The 500+ passenger per plane carrier costs too much for a reasonable return on profit while maintaining its full capacity in order to be consistently profitable for each A380 loaded with 100% capacity loading. 

The smaller widebody market makes money from each flight even when carrying an 85% load factor, thus lowering its financial risk from profitable routes and uses. A small wide-bodied aircraft can supplement each trip with an added value freight component when the A350 and 787 are keen to add relatable freight to the aircraft.

UAE is taking a course correction and has about three dozen A380 in the Emirates backlog, as it also added about 20 A380 to the book in 2018 Emirates has recognized the market change and nobody wants the responsibility of keeping a new A380 in shipshape operation. It too is labor and parts intense of a risk to make it spread over route comes with a steep price.

An example comes when a per seat formula illustrates how fast an Airline will lose money when it isn't filled or the set price loses an ability to lower its seat price. The math problem begins to evolve in this way. Each seat makes $100 per seat no matter the airplane type. The Airbus has about 550 seats it could fill. The A350 has about 375 seats and 787 could have 330 seats. Now the rough and dirty number will show how difficult the A380 is tough to fill it to its capacity is killing the program and Emiirate is Airbus' best buyer of its most expensive airplane.

When just good enough wasn't a leap far beyond its competitor, Boeing.  Airbus will retire the production schedule of its A380. The remaining outstanding orders it has for the A380 are the usual suspects of airlines that are those dubious customers with an uncertain financial position. Qantas just canceled its last 8 unfilled A-380's orders by a major airline. The A-380 end is on the final approach. A hail mary toss from Emirates is too late. It too is in discussions on how to convert its outstanding A-380 order it made just last year. Airbus would gain some A350 orders at the expense of A-380 orders ditched. Boeing would like to slip in some 777Xs with a 797 caveat. It looks more certain Emirates will go with Airbus' A-350s out of a professional "courtesy" and a low ball price. Boeing is in no position to lowball its 777X or "797" (under a study conditioned unannounced new NMA type) 

A Being "just good enough undercuts" a competitive philosophy in a free market environment. Big corporations need to step up and the 787 was that attempt, hence the A-350 and so forth. The grapple comes from the conflict of just good enough against a quantum leap above the competitor when introducing a new product, therefore expectations are set for something special for the 777X and any other follow-on from Airbus as well. The A321LR has the pole position in the market from its base customers of the A-321. The 797, if announced, is designed for ending the A-321 reign using better is best tactics.