Lion Air's 737 Max Crash Hot Potato

Amongst the crash data lies some truth of why Lion Air's new 737 Max-8 crashed killing 189 trusting souls. The tragedy is real but who’s to blame? Or better yet who has the most to lose finding answers? 

Boeing would like Lion Air operational incompetence to headline the investigation. Lion Air would like Boeing to shoulder the blame and customers placing a claim against those with the deepest pockets. So the investigation remains in no-man’s land where Lion Air threatens to cancel its huge order with Boeing with many, many, more Max on the order cancelation line. 

The airplane flew successfully for several months before any indication there was a flaw or mishap was about to happen. It is also known that a prior flight had indicated a problem, but the crew was savvy enough to conduct work-arounds mitigating flight behavior problems before safely landing. Into the shop this 737 Max went. The maintenance crew, who were newly introduced to the advanced 737 replaced a sensor part. The flying crew were not fully aware of the problem or how to do a work-around as the prior crew had managed when it flew into the same behavior of rapid nose down descent as the later flight was directed by software or a system failure went it crashed.

Whose fault was it? That is the big multi-billion dollar question. The answer will come in time and much more time as if time will dilute the impact for either Boeing or Lion Air. By the way, Boeing will offer a further discount to Lion Air before it can cancel its order and Boeing delivers its backlogged order from Lion Air. But blame has to be assigned first and that's what time is for, assigning blame where no one is driven out of business over the loss of 189 passengers. 

The time is 2019, the blame goes to an unprinted a manual update and sloppy maintenance or training for the 737 Max no one else seems to chime in about having any problems. Unless a news report has been missed the Max keeps flying without any indication of a problem Lion Air experienced. The dangerous game is afoot. Assuming it was a one-off mishap, which there is blame to go around to everybody having some kind of consequential impact in the investigation. Lion Air will cancel its threat to cancel its Boeing order. Boeing will give Lion Air further discounts on its order when it pays out to injury family members who lost somebody on that flight. No one wants to go out of business and no one wants not to be compensated and finally no one wants to take the blame.

Let's just say the crashed Lion Air flight problem has been found in many levels throughout the aviation market chain and only the dead cannot feel the pain at this time.  I'm so sorry that, “to error is human" and bad things happen to everyone at some point! The biggest dog in this situation will pay with little fanfare demonstrated. It's a hot potato no one wants to handle.

Exostructure, an Aviation Dream

Building something without adequate support requires an exostructure for its existence. Much like the crab that has an exoskeleton wrapping its inerds with a hard exterior, a commercial  airplane must also also have a hardshell around it in order to survive. Boeing has just announced it will make available a 777X BBJ without a market. It lacks a exostructure or a true market or an order for it to exist. Therefore orders represent an "Exostructure".

Part of the Exo support is airports capable of landing this behemoth. The folding wings is a clue. The Exostructure are found in the wings in this case. The 777X BBJ can land at any selfrespecting larger airport. It hasn't been shown how short of a runway it can land on. That will be found out in testing during 2019. The timing may be right as the  US could be considering an Airforce-1 may be a 777X BBJ modified for presidential use. 

However, potential, is that softshell mebrane that wraps an idea in its infancy. That's what Boeing has with its 777X BBJ concept just launched. Any national president or Bill Gates type can order one for $3/4 of a billion with upgrades included. The hardshell is that "exo order" allows the jet to live. The 777X BBJ gestation period is not defined as long as Boeing builds the 777-8X or 777-9X.  An analyst will quip, "that's alot of oil pumped out of a lot sand. Let's go pound some sand"!

Boeing believes it has an exostructure to support a 777X BBJ. It may come by it with a half dozen orders. Super states are the likely suspects along with an oil kingdom in the mix. Boeing wouldn't launch an idea without some softshell interest. Having that thought, it bears consideration, who that might be. The the question arises, four engine security over two engine efficiency. Let's face it, any self-respecting super-power can stuff the frame with all the latest communication and counter measures. The 777X BBJ would have room for file cabinets but a thumb drive would work in someones pocket as a terabyte pretty much fits within anywhere under the size of a coffee table coaster.

A four engine consideration burns more fuel and can go pretty far. A two engine GE9X engine will take anyone to the other side of the world while going East or West and then landing at the same location. Possibly the US has reconsidered the 747-8i AF1 order with a 777-8X workup. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes another 3 years before a first delivery of the presidential 747-8i ("AF1") or a 777X BBJ is in the works. A new president could mean a new order in a deal making venture with Boeing. After-all if it is good enough for the president of the US, then its good enough for a Chinese trade mission. Enough two engine excursions around the world has proven two engines are as safe as four engines. In most cases better than four engines unless there is some sort catestrophic mishap were both types would not have survived.

A 777X BBJ can just sit and wait for a "EXO" order to hold this program together a little while longer.





   

777X Powers ON

Or as Aero Space Testing puts it,

"Boeing powers up first 777x test aircraft"

So goes the march towards its first flight. The 777X has become one gigantic poker hand for potential customers. In that some are holding its hand before making a play for ordering the giant. Will more 777X orders come forward for Boeing? Boeing thinks so, but to be perfectly clear, Boeing is depending more on "Seattle's Best Coffee" then a new 777X order at this time. It is nervous until this thing flies and bragging will continue making airlines flinch once more with a business plan for a jet holding 400+ passengers flying 7,600 miles. Could it go farther? Ah, yeah, but the airline would have to toss some passengers and its luggage for more fuel loaded, but the 777-8X may have already done that for the customer with its 350" seat configuration. Even if Boeing sends out a 290 seat aircraft it would approach 9,000 miles of travel comfortably and Qantas is ready to Punch on its Project Sunrise as soon as Boeing comes back after first test flight and says this beast is a modern marvel it can do better than what was promised!

"Power on", is a step in that scenario. Below is the 777-9X airframe thousands of hours before a push out for the cameras and Boeing employees crowding around the airframe on a clear sunny  Everett, Wa day in about sixty days. That's right, only 1,440 hours for Ave Geeks to fix their computers for the big roll-out ceremony having a cheesing Boeing PR person speaking about how many things were accomplished to make this roll-out possible. 

Courtesy of Aero Space Testing Published Photo of its Author

The power on step shown above, is to light up all electrical systems found on the aircraft as if an engine were hung on the wing and supplying its power. Do all the electrical components work as entended? This won't be the last  time Boeing will light-up. Every time something is added, even the paint. an eltrical power on test will occur. The 777X won't fly until everything works and works over and over again. Power cycling this airplane is much like your home computer. Every time it power cycles it resets electronics or it confirms the wiring remains solid as intended. The first power-on checks for smoke, fire and burnoutof everything electrical as that is a common step for all new 777-300ER's coming off the production line. However, this a completly new design and the this airplane requires the power tests that are analysed and recorded for further study. Once those checks are completed it may fly.

In the mean time, other activitie from now until the middle of Frebruary 2019, Boeing will install the enterior components including work stations and corresponding testing equipment and its corresponding seats. First flight is for systems checks and over-all flight characteristics before the road of daily flying occurs for its year long testing period. Sixty days is not far off.  

Data Fusion The F-35's Real Weapon.

ALIS was the big data kid on the block, Then there was mission data and finally adversarial data. Eventually, the repetition of take-offs and landings using military weapon loads had to be factored in. 

A system in secret was developed called " C-3". This fusion of data had to tell the F-35 program players what part and what mission the F-35 is assigned. Defense One covers this topic. C-3 is programming for AI and predictive modeling well beyond a visual examination or situational awareness. Whether looking at a part or going against the unknown, it is framed in the architecture of C-3. It can and will tell the humans surrounding the F-35 its next move before it flies. Normally it takes months or even a year to render a solution from data for everything from bolts to washers. Now the C-3 company says it can do in a month instead of months. The ultimate goal would be under 24 hours in a conflict. It's a matter of time for this to happen.

• BY PATRICK TUCKERTECHNOLOGY EDITOR

 California company is looking to accelerate the Defense Department’s embrace of artificial intelligence, starting with some of its most important aircraft.

C-3 will or could predict what part is ready for change out or what missile should be loaded for a mission, depending on what the predictive C-3 modeling reveals. It is simply the added value of the flying F-35 computer. In a perfect F-35 world it seeks optimal solutions for real-time battle situation heading the F-35 in a direction on the ground as well as in the air for optimal results.

The example is a mission assignment going to "X" and taking out target "Y" with the most proficient "Z" fully operational. The Lightning II is about to be militarized with the C-3 signature of supercomputing on-board or located from somewhere in California in a big "underground" building. The F-35  gives the F-35, oversight, for its every move from a computer to the team who will support its mission and further. It is too secret for this kid to know.

Simply put, it's smarter than a fifth grader type of execution. The adversary cannot predict what will happen when its trigger is pulled and the F-35 responds. The C-3 system moves the goals post as weapons are changed or become available while internalizing F-35 capability against adversarial systems and placements. A strike comes with an "I didn't see that coming" outcome. The fighter pilot climbs in and responds with its resources for the F-35 and its supporting players. 

Boeing Says,"Meat of the Market"

It's has taken a while, but I think I know and I get it. The long thin routes are not where the money is found but its the best advertising focal point money can buy. The other philosophy is for passenger demand. Boeing has built two aircraft for an answer. One for passenger density, the other for distance traveled. The 777-8X mashes miles, not passengers and the 777-9X is the inverse of that proposition. Therefore as the Australian Aviation has published about "the resurgence of the 777-8X order book".

Does it make sense to haul 250 of your "best" friends for eighteen hours in a tube? How about 400+ friends going 7,000 miles for 16 hours. Boeing has explored the market and came up with the 777-9X and 777-8X configuration destined for 2020-2022 entry into service respectively. So the 777-8X sales surge is not expected until later as its 777-300ER's are of age to retire.

The 777-9X, the Boeing advertising giant, will come out in 2020, as the first lever for retiring the A380 completely according to data and customer preferences. The A-380 is a white elephant that cost Airbus more than its pride. Then the true market crusher arrives, the 777-8X. It will do more with less, an "old" industrial buzzword from the millennial generation. The do more with less crowd is buying the airline tickets today. They want comfort and space and not necessarily 18 hrs of flight time, but it wants Fiji islands instead, from anywhere in North America. Sounds like a millennial concept to me! Or Boeing centric ner-do-wells prefer the 777-8X for another gap filler.

Flying far and stuffing the tube is an Airbus dream. The A-380 was that bridge which became too far from its profit engine. Stockholders for Airbus will scramble when the NEW 777-X's comes forward. Airbus sycophants will just have to buy the A-350-1000's as its traditions require. The 777-8X is a design which only a computer data program can churn out when finding the meat of the market. 

The efficiency graph line starts high at take-off and then downward for about 5,000 miles reaching a point every mile flown at this point is at its highest efficiency and lowest costs and then at 6,000 miles it slightly nudges upwards until it runs out of the market. The Caveat is most seats are filled because it can satisfy the meatier part of the market. It's easier to fill 350 seats in the densest part of the market than 400 seats going halfway around the world from point A-B. The world's half is about 18 hrs one way or another and an airplane doesn't need to travel farther than its half. This is where the airline industry is today. 

However, the other data says 95% of the market lies in the 777-8X's reach. That sounds pretty meaty to me. Boeing algorithms say so too. Hence, the 777-8X pops out on the graph somewhere between LA and Tokyo. The low flatten line of efficiency falls within the "Middle of the Meat". Most restaurants call it Prime Rib on the menu. Boeing calls it the 777-8X. Who wants to fly west going 8,000 miles to Australia and who wants to fly east going 8,000 miles to Australia. Now you see how graphs can work. Either way, the 777-8X fills that market. Who wants a bigger load (777-9X) flying west to Australia from LA and who wants a bigger load flying East to Australia from New York? Gosh, this is getting serious and airlines remain behind to figure this out.

Even though the 777-9X has a bloated order book compared with the 777-8X. Emirates, a big one airline, is the reason. It has ordered 156 777-9X and is the World's largest A-380's holder which is destined to a boneyard closest to Tucson, AZ.  

Therefore, the Boeing graph chart has identified aviation's sweet spot. Twelve hours anywhere on a 777-9X and 14 hours everywhere on a 777-8X. More 777-8X sales are on the way once the first tests of the 777-9X succeed.

The Bloodless War

The US and the Eastern spheres are fighting a bloodless war for the high ground. Currently, the S-400 missile deal with Turkey and Russia is the currently discussed battlefield. Winner takes or Keeps F-35 secrets. The loser may have spent hundreds of billions on an F-35 or the other could be rendered defenseless in a real shooting war. Turkey a NATO member raised the white flag on behalf of its partnering alliance members when buying the S-400 missiles. The purchase is perceived as a pilot hole into NATO defensives and those who purchased the Lockheed F-35 fighter.

When Russia delivers its first group of S-400 missiles the F-35 will disappear from Turkey. Russia has taken round one without shedding blood. The US will have to find other sources for F-35 Turkish made parts. A Big inconvenience which slows the F-35 development. The pattern has been set as the Chink in the F-35 program plan has been discovered.

In order to sell so many F-35’s to partner nations, the US dangled a piece of the F-35 development in front of every participating member core group. Turkey was the most vulnerable since it has ordered 100 F-35’s with lucrative participation into the program. Some nations will not be able to buy the F-35 on a quid pro quo basis. Nations like Australia do but are unlikely to buckle under to Russia’s enticing chess move selling S-400 to anybody with an F-35 position. The battle is afoot.   The US is fighting back by falling on its foolish sward it had made when it sold Turkey 100 F-35’s and gave Turkey a prominent position as a contributing “build member” for the same 5^th generation Joint Strike Fighter jet.

The US is seeking time by stalling the process while it builds an infrastructure replacing Turkey’s role as a customer and an F-35 resource. The US is telling Turkey to go ahead and take those S-400 missiles since you needed them so bad and we will not ship you “our” F-35. That’s right “Our”. The core partners are surrogate holders for the defense of the Western hemisphere. Russia is a lead player for the Eastern Idea-ology. Turkey lies wedged between the two Ideals and has now chosen the S-400 giving Russia the tap hole into the F-35. China will have to steal the rest of that technology.

At this time no other F-35 customer looks to play with Russia for F-35 secrets. The US chose an ill-advised position to go quid pro quo with its partners on this program development. Meaning, if you buy the F-35 we will give you a piece of the development and sustainment action. The other shoe is now dropping as a retraction of source F-35 participation in the program. The US has already found replacement resources for the building of the F-35 away from Turkey moving to participants closer to home. They have spent the last year getting this done. Even if Turkey cancels the S-400 Russian order for receiving its ordered 100 F-35’s it’s too late for them to play on the US F-35. It is a done deal, Turkey is out. 

A replacement plan is already progressing.

However, the US can only implode the program so far but there are fewer options for Russia. Turkey was its main players and it is a failing play if the US is resolved to cut Turkey out. 

The possibility is strong, the US has already won the bloodless battle against the S-400. If it’s rolled out for firing, the system will be decommissioned by multiple means not yet published at this time. The S-400 maybe be a dead duck already and Turkey makes a prideful blunder.

The line in the sand starts at Ankara, Turkey.

Russia loses the battle deal but it doesn’t stop them from trying to penetrate the F-35 systems. The F-35 must be really awesome.

Are We There Yet, The Rivian Arrives

Or according to Fox news, the children in the back says I'm only good for 400 miles and we need to play crowd is turned loose.

The Rivian is an electric SUV/Truck

The Culture of Demand is about to replace the internal combustion engine, read about this new modern culture busting electric conveyance. It will be a boon for "convenience gasoline markets" such as Maverick stores across the Northwest region. Imagine after 400 miles you pull in to a charging stall as the family has time to unload, buy stuff, and eat. The power charging may cost $50 but the stuff the family indulges on could easily run to $100 with a gross profit dollars running at 50% of retail sales. A true convenience store dream. Gasoline pumping takes to little time and then the money moves down the road in under 10 minutes. But wait, what about a half hour charge? The store has time to fleech customers from pizza to jerky. The Slurpee is revived!

The charging network is a question? Will Tesla merge with Rivian on this topic. If so the culture may change to electric and half hour charging over the next two years, The merge will need to join with a convenience store chain to make the transition before others will join the electric rush. I am sure Big Oil is keeping its options open for super fueling stations on this one.

The culture will change as the interface catches up with the electric motor popularity.

NMA 797 Is A Program Role Reversal From The 787 Program.

Typically, an aircraft manufacturer announces a new airplane and then puts all the build elements together in some kind of haphazard way. Please refer to the 787 programs when a shell of a 787 was rolled out on 7-7-2007 to a skeptical public. It took Boeing five more years to deliver its first customer's 787 in the fall of 2012. Much criticism was mentioned when Boeing couldn't deliver what it seems to promise from the announcement of the program in 2004.

Let's jump to 2018 with so many rumors flying about for an impending announcement for a middle of the market 797 aircraft. The pundits are having a tough time getting its arms around when Boeing will announce its NMA aircraft. All have concluded a 797 should deliver during 2025. Boeing has a "meh" attitude for the concept as it continues to fall back on its "we are in a study phase" excuse. 

However, this site has long held Boeing wants to build the 797 airplanes first using proven design compared with all its years tinkering within the 787 programs as Airbus watched planned and implemented its A-350 during the longtime Boeing tinkered. This is a role reversal of how it handled its 787 programs back through 2004-2012.

The 797 should be known more of an electronic airplane of proven technology than a paper dream one like the 787. Computer-aided design has taken 787 lessons learned and infused onto a 797 CAD computer. Boeing's lame statement,  "we're in a study process" is also doublespeak for assembling an NMA from its supplier partners through the production facility environment before announcing a program launch. 

Did I mention launch customers? Try squeezing Delta, United and American airlines for launch customer answers for this 797 launch. Once Boeing decides to launch this concept, it will be announced after the 777X flies its last few test flights. The time gap will allow Boeing to build an NMA from 2021 to its first delivery during 2025. The announcement for this venture will come mid-2019 at an airshow near Paris. 

The Parisian slap in the Airbus face will be the order numbers generated during the announcement of the NMA 797. No one will be shocked by the announcement but the order scope could be immense and that may cause some recitation work being done in the Airbus Pavillion.

Note Worthy 777X Day

The first flying test 777X finished its initial body join today as the photo below shows.



I would assume wire connectivity is going on inside and then installing its equipment comes next. To anyone watching the process you can imagine all parts and equipment for this first flying example are stored in warehouse bins. It is also noteworthy, a new assembly process for the 777X was implemented during this occasion and will continue until a run to the paint shop occurs. One of the interesting steps is: as equipment is added, it will be tested when power is applied. Then it will be tested again once the above ship is fully loaded and engine simulation of power is applied. It will be completely tested again once the engines are a fixed to the wings and fired up for its first low engine power run. So forth and so forth goes the testing before its first test flight during 2019.

There are two more coming down the 777X assembly hall for 2019 flight testing. A good way to imagine the process is if something is installed it be tested before any next step of the assembled aircraft. The "new build process" includes a slimming of the work process through the modular assembly and CAD techniques pioneered during the 787 and Max programs. The area shown at the lower bottom of this photo suggests space is ready for a row of engineering "cubes" which will be added before Christmas and will become operational for the next several frames coming behind this one. Expect to see tables, monitors and engineers at the workstations as mechanics will spend time "inside this aircraft" reading schematics and assembling its equipment with appropriate newly formed tools. The test articles will take more time to assemble as systems and equipment are installed for the first time. The process should include preliminary lab time where Boeing employees practice how the plane will assemble on the floor.

The 777X is almost ready for game time as the practice session has become a reality on the assembly floor. Every day forward from this point is a direct contribution to first flight as all other steps in its creation has been successfully accomplished. The GE9X engine has processed its separate testing regimen. The indicators published to date exceeds engine expectation progress for the GE9X engines. 787 technology is an already proven item which needs little time to conform to the 777X layout and its size. A "technology commonality" has already been proven during the Max program and should translate well to the 777X program. All-in-all, the above photo demonstrates Boeing is well within its developmental progress as it's no longer a "paper airplane", but the real deal coming down the ramp in the next 90 days for possibly its first flight by end of March 2019.  

The Right Hammer,787-10

Building a home may take a half dozen different hammers. One for finish nails (molding), or one for framing not to mention drywalling and roofing activity. The hammer types keeping mounting per specialty or function. A big framing hammer comes in as a 16oz concussion on a nail head. Or also known as one pound the world around. There are 2d to 40d nails and varying classes of nail types within that range counting roofing, drywall, and finishing requiring different hammer types as well. This brings us to airplanes.

The two mega manufacturers have tried to cover nail use or passengers with different hammers types or airplane models. The 16d nail could be called the 787-9 for framing a business together. So what is a 787-10, it's a 20d nail or even a 16d nail for most routes airlines travel. A 16oz hammer could do in either but becomes more tedious if used on a 20d nail as would an 8oz hammer on a 16d nail pounding all day. Enough of nails and hammer matching and back to airplanes.

The 787-10 could be the hammer used all day accepting 300+ passengers (nails) while going 6,000 plus miles or in the center of the aviation market. Air New Zealand is weighing an order for its fleet renewal and for fleet expansion. The 787-10 is on the watch list for a decision by the end of this year. If it goes with Airbus A-350 it will be a complete fleet renewal with Airbus. If it goes with Boeing it will expand its Boeing types into different models down the road such as 787-10's or 777X's.