Boeing Says,"Meat of the Market"

It's has taken a while, but I think I know and I get it. The long thin routes are not where the money is found but its the best advertising focal point money can buy. The other philosophy is for passenger demand. Boeing has built two aircraft for an answer. One for passenger density, the other for distance traveled. The 777-8X mashes miles, not passengers and the 777-9X is the inverse of that proposition. Therefore as the Australian Aviation has published about "the resurgence of the 777-8X order book".

Does it make sense to haul 250 of your "best" friends for eighteen hours in a tube? How about 400+ friends going 7,000 miles for 16 hours. Boeing has explored the market and came up with the 777-9X and 777-8X configuration destined for 2020-2022 entry into service respectively. So the 777-8X sales surge is not expected until later as its 777-300ER's are of age to retire.

The 777-9X, the Boeing advertising giant, will come out in 2020, as the first lever for retiring the A380 completely according to data and customer preferences. The A-380 is a white elephant that cost Airbus more than its pride. Then the true market crusher arrives, the 777-8X. It will do more with less, an "old" industrial buzzword from the millennial generation. The do more with less crowd is buying the airline tickets today. They want comfort and space and not necessarily 18 hrs of flight time, but it wants Fiji islands instead, from anywhere in North America. Sounds like a millennial concept to me! Or Boeing centric ner-do-wells prefer the 777-8X for another gap filler.

Flying far and stuffing the tube is an Airbus dream. The A-380 was that bridge which became too far from its profit engine. Stockholders for Airbus will scramble when the NEW 777-X's comes forward. Airbus sycophants will just have to buy the A-350-1000's as its traditions require. The 777-8X is a design which only a computer data program can churn out when finding the meat of the market. 

The efficiency graph line starts high at take-off and then downward for about 5,000 miles reaching a point every mile flown at this point is at its highest efficiency and lowest costs and then at 6,000 miles it slightly nudges upwards until it runs out of the market. The Caveat is most seats are filled because it can satisfy the meatier part of the market. It's easier to fill 350 seats in the densest part of the market than 400 seats going halfway around the world from point A-B. The world's half is about 18 hrs one way or another and an airplane doesn't need to travel farther than its half. This is where the airline industry is today. 

However, the other data says 95% of the market lies in the 777-8X's reach. That sounds pretty meaty to me. Boeing algorithms say so too. Hence, the 777-8X pops out on the graph somewhere between LA and Tokyo. The low flatten line of efficiency falls within the "Middle of the Meat". Most restaurants call it Prime Rib on the menu. Boeing calls it the 777-8X. Who wants to fly west going 8,000 miles to Australia and who wants to fly east going 8,000 miles to Australia. Now you see how graphs can work. Either way, the 777-8X fills that market. Who wants a bigger load (777-9X) flying west to Australia from LA and who wants a bigger load flying East to Australia from New York? Gosh, this is getting serious and airlines remain behind to figure this out.

Even though the 777-9X has a bloated order book compared with the 777-8X. Emirates, a big one airline, is the reason. It has ordered 156 777-9X and is the World's largest A-380's holder which is destined to a boneyard closest to Tucson, AZ.  

Therefore, the Boeing graph chart has identified aviation's sweet spot. Twelve hours anywhere on a 777-9X and 14 hours everywhere on a 777-8X. More 777-8X sales are on the way once the first tests of the 777-9X succeed.

The Bloodless War

The US and the Eastern spheres are fighting a bloodless war for the high ground. Currently, the S-400 missile deal with Turkey and Russia is the currently discussed battlefield. Winner takes or Keeps F-35 secrets. The loser may have spent hundreds of billions on an F-35 or the other could be rendered defenseless in a real shooting war. Turkey a NATO member raised the white flag on behalf of its partnering alliance members when buying the S-400 missiles. The purchase is perceived as a pilot hole into NATO defensives and those who purchased the Lockheed F-35 fighter.

When Russia delivers its first group of S-400 missiles the F-35 will disappear from Turkey. Russia has taken round one without shedding blood. The US will have to find other sources for F-35 Turkish made parts. A Big inconvenience which slows the F-35 development. The pattern has been set as the Chink in the F-35 program plan has been discovered.

In order to sell so many F-35’s to partner nations, the US dangled a piece of the F-35 development in front of every participating member core group. Turkey was the most vulnerable since it has ordered 100 F-35’s with lucrative participation into the program. Some nations will not be able to buy the F-35 on a quid pro quo basis. Nations like Australia do but are unlikely to buckle under to Russia’s enticing chess move selling S-400 to anybody with an F-35 position. The battle is afoot.   The US is fighting back by falling on its foolish sward it had made when it sold Turkey 100 F-35’s and gave Turkey a prominent position as a contributing “build member” for the same 5^th generation Joint Strike Fighter jet.

The US is seeking time by stalling the process while it builds an infrastructure replacing Turkey’s role as a customer and an F-35 resource. The US is telling Turkey to go ahead and take those S-400 missiles since you needed them so bad and we will not ship you “our” F-35. That’s right “Our”. The core partners are surrogate holders for the defense of the Western hemisphere. Russia is a lead player for the Eastern Idea-ology. Turkey lies wedged between the two Ideals and has now chosen the S-400 giving Russia the tap hole into the F-35. China will have to steal the rest of that technology.

At this time no other F-35 customer looks to play with Russia for F-35 secrets. The US chose an ill-advised position to go quid pro quo with its partners on this program development. Meaning, if you buy the F-35 we will give you a piece of the development and sustainment action. The other shoe is now dropping as a retraction of source F-35 participation in the program. The US has already found replacement resources for the building of the F-35 away from Turkey moving to participants closer to home. They have spent the last year getting this done. Even if Turkey cancels the S-400 Russian order for receiving its ordered 100 F-35’s it’s too late for them to play on the US F-35. It is a done deal, Turkey is out. 

A replacement plan is already progressing.

However, the US can only implode the program so far but there are fewer options for Russia. Turkey was its main players and it is a failing play if the US is resolved to cut Turkey out. 

The possibility is strong, the US has already won the bloodless battle against the S-400. If it’s rolled out for firing, the system will be decommissioned by multiple means not yet published at this time. The S-400 maybe be a dead duck already and Turkey makes a prideful blunder.

The line in the sand starts at Ankara, Turkey.

Russia loses the battle deal but it doesn’t stop them from trying to penetrate the F-35 systems. The F-35 must be really awesome.

Are We There Yet, The Rivian Arrives

Or according to Fox news, the children in the back says I'm only good for 400 miles and we need to play crowd is turned loose.

The Rivian is an electric SUV/Truck

The Culture of Demand is about to replace the internal combustion engine, read about this new modern culture busting electric conveyance. It will be a boon for "convenience gasoline markets" such as Maverick stores across the Northwest region. Imagine after 400 miles you pull in to a charging stall as the family has time to unload, buy stuff, and eat. The power charging may cost $50 but the stuff the family indulges on could easily run to $100 with a gross profit dollars running at 50% of retail sales. A true convenience store dream. Gasoline pumping takes to little time and then the money moves down the road in under 10 minutes. But wait, what about a half hour charge? The store has time to fleech customers from pizza to jerky. The Slurpee is revived!

The charging network is a question? Will Tesla merge with Rivian on this topic. If so the culture may change to electric and half hour charging over the next two years, The merge will need to join with a convenience store chain to make the transition before others will join the electric rush. I am sure Big Oil is keeping its options open for super fueling stations on this one.

The culture will change as the interface catches up with the electric motor popularity.

NMA 797 Is A Program Role Reversal From The 787 Program.

Typically, an aircraft manufacturer announces a new airplane and then puts all the build elements together in some kind of haphazard way. Please refer to the 787 programs when a shell of a 787 was rolled out on 7-7-2007 to a skeptical public. It took Boeing five more years to deliver its first customer's 787 in the fall of 2012. Much criticism was mentioned when Boeing couldn't deliver what it seems to promise from the announcement of the program in 2004.

Let's jump to 2018 with so many rumors flying about for an impending announcement for a middle of the market 797 aircraft. The pundits are having a tough time getting its arms around when Boeing will announce its NMA aircraft. All have concluded a 797 should deliver during 2025. Boeing has a "meh" attitude for the concept as it continues to fall back on its "we are in a study phase" excuse. 

However, this site has long held Boeing wants to build the 797 airplanes first using proven design compared with all its years tinkering within the 787 programs as Airbus watched planned and implemented its A-350 during the longtime Boeing tinkered. This is a role reversal of how it handled its 787 programs back through 2004-2012.

The 797 should be known more of an electronic airplane of proven technology than a paper dream one like the 787. Computer-aided design has taken 787 lessons learned and infused onto a 797 CAD computer. Boeing's lame statement,  "we're in a study process" is also doublespeak for assembling an NMA from its supplier partners through the production facility environment before announcing a program launch. 

Did I mention launch customers? Try squeezing Delta, United and American airlines for launch customer answers for this 797 launch. Once Boeing decides to launch this concept, it will be announced after the 777X flies its last few test flights. The time gap will allow Boeing to build an NMA from 2021 to its first delivery during 2025. The announcement for this venture will come mid-2019 at an airshow near Paris. 

The Parisian slap in the Airbus face will be the order numbers generated during the announcement of the NMA 797. No one will be shocked by the announcement but the order scope could be immense and that may cause some recitation work being done in the Airbus Pavillion.

Note Worthy 777X Day

The first flying test 777X finished its initial body join today as the photo below shows.



I would assume wire connectivity is going on inside and then installing its equipment comes next. To anyone watching the process you can imagine all parts and equipment for this first flying example are stored in warehouse bins. It is also noteworthy, a new assembly process for the 777X was implemented during this occasion and will continue until a run to the paint shop occurs. One of the interesting steps is: as equipment is added, it will be tested when power is applied. Then it will be tested again once the above ship is fully loaded and engine simulation of power is applied. It will be completely tested again once the engines are a fixed to the wings and fired up for its first low engine power run. So forth and so forth goes the testing before its first test flight during 2019.

There are two more coming down the 777X assembly hall for 2019 flight testing. A good way to imagine the process is if something is installed it be tested before any next step of the assembled aircraft. The "new build process" includes a slimming of the work process through the modular assembly and CAD techniques pioneered during the 787 and Max programs. The area shown at the lower bottom of this photo suggests space is ready for a row of engineering "cubes" which will be added before Christmas and will become operational for the next several frames coming behind this one. Expect to see tables, monitors and engineers at the workstations as mechanics will spend time "inside this aircraft" reading schematics and assembling its equipment with appropriate newly formed tools. The test articles will take more time to assemble as systems and equipment are installed for the first time. The process should include preliminary lab time where Boeing employees practice how the plane will assemble on the floor.

The 777X is almost ready for game time as the practice session has become a reality on the assembly floor. Every day forward from this point is a direct contribution to first flight as all other steps in its creation has been successfully accomplished. The GE9X engine has processed its separate testing regimen. The indicators published to date exceeds engine expectation progress for the GE9X engines. 787 technology is an already proven item which needs little time to conform to the 777X layout and its size. A "technology commonality" has already been proven during the Max program and should translate well to the 777X program. All-in-all, the above photo demonstrates Boeing is well within its developmental progress as it's no longer a "paper airplane", but the real deal coming down the ramp in the next 90 days for possibly its first flight by end of March 2019.  

The Right Hammer,787-10

Building a home may take a half dozen different hammers. One for finish nails (molding), or one for framing not to mention drywalling and roofing activity. The hammer types keeping mounting per specialty or function. A big framing hammer comes in as a 16oz concussion on a nail head. Or also known as one pound the world around. There are 2d to 40d nails and varying classes of nail types within that range counting roofing, drywall, and finishing requiring different hammer types as well. This brings us to airplanes.

The two mega manufacturers have tried to cover nail use or passengers with different hammers types or airplane models. The 16d nail could be called the 787-9 for framing a business together. So what is a 787-10, it's a 20d nail or even a 16d nail for most routes airlines travel. A 16oz hammer could do in either but becomes more tedious if used on a 20d nail as would an 8oz hammer on a 16d nail pounding all day. Enough of nails and hammer matching and back to airplanes.

The 787-10 could be the hammer used all day accepting 300+ passengers (nails) while going 6,000 plus miles or in the center of the aviation market. Air New Zealand is weighing an order for its fleet renewal and for fleet expansion. The 787-10 is on the watch list for a decision by the end of this year. If it goes with Airbus A-350 it will be a complete fleet renewal with Airbus. If it goes with Boeing it will expand its Boeing types into different models down the road such as 787-10's or 777X's.

Hill AFB Does a Mass F-35 Launch

What this means?:

1. Hill AFB Utah has 35 of its intended 78 F-35 already active on its flight line.
2. Going to war against the US is a very bad idea.
3. Hill AFB can launch a wartime quantity in eleven minutes.
4. Hill AFB F-35's sent 12 to the Orient for a year and then 12 came back.
5. There are about $3.5 billion aircraft in one photo.
6. More F-35 aircraft in one Utah AFB based photo than any other nation has at this time.
7. The USAF is ready for the next war since there another 200+ F-35's flying in the US.
8. It takes a very large village like 1,700 personnel to fly the 388th Air Wing's F-35s.
9. The Marines have more F-35B than Hill's AFB's 35 units.
10. Velociraptor is Marine Jargon for the 24-0 kill ratio.

Hill AFB Utah 35 Velociraptors F-35A Mass Exercise 11-18-2018

What Downed The 737 Max 8?

There are several theories floated by the press that the automated leveling electronics failed to fly the 737 Max at the appropriate elevation. Soon after take-off, this Lion Air Max 737 airplane crashed presumed to kill all on board with 189 passengers and crew. The various accident review boards quickly encircled electronic parts that could cause a catastrophic flight level change for which the pilots could not overcome. The airplane flew into the sea, killing everyone. The plane's body has not been located indicating a nose dive with a 600 mile an hour entry into a cement-like ocean.

This may not even be the real cause but it is a start and may lead to the real reason the brand new 737 failed to fly as designed. Boeing will try to replicate its faults in the lab. It will use its Max systems set up for all planes currently flying to see if it can duplicate an errant condition with all parts used in flying at a level course. Pilots usually take-off and land for about several minutes at each end of the flight. They are also responsible for making good judgment calls for unhooking automated flying systems as extraordinary flying conditions exists. The pilot must fly the plane under those rules and judgments about the aircraft.

Not knowing the answer, to what went wrong on this flight, makes the case a clear mystery even for the professional observer. The pilots could not control the aircraft with the state the equipment was in during its last minutes. The black box information will show the pilot was trying to save the airplane. The second box when found should complete what happened from the human and mechanical side of the accident. The real topic is a brave new world type of conjecture.

The airplane automation is good or in some cases a great addition to flying but atrophying pilot abilities back to the 20th century. The plane flies itself and pilots are needed to watch as flying caretakers. When something breaks, the human is locked out of the solution because so many interdependent systems are overwhelmed, it too loses additional functionality on the aircraft for which the pilot cannot intercede with its automated systems fast enough. Diagnosing the problem of a million parts going bad takes too long and can lead to miscorrecting the problem and cause a further catastrophe. Has aviation reached a new vulnerability?

The pilot is just a monitor and not the craftsman at the controls. If a computer chip has a weakness in its circuitry, eventually one day it will mishap during mid-flight where systems may not let those monitors "in" to do the job needed. I will be interested in the final summary report on this crash as it will explain how far technology has taken aviation away from humans while placing us in the hands of electronic controls and computers. 

What downed the 737 Max? It wasn't the pilot!

Aviation's Venn Diagram Is A Boeing Dream

Long ago there were Venn diagrams, maybe as far back as a sophomore in the 1968 high school geometry class. Anyways, the diagram might have a circle for the A-380 and its seat and range graphic. It may have a 787 near the center of the diagram for its ultimate plotting. 

Below is a very accurate detail of how the Venn diagram works for an aviation aficionado. Boeing has "its hand in the air" with its 787 analysis and Airbus has put everyone on the floor with its A-380 big dream. Obviously, Airbus doesn't read its own Venn diagrams and is paying for it at this time as the A-380 and other of its wide-bodied aircraft look for "I'm not asking twice" zonal thinking.

Boeing 787 Program Venn Diagram

Boeing will continue to expand its lead order over Airbus with its "hands in the air" approach. "Are you with me?" What is missing from Airbus is its asking price for the A-350 and A-380 models. Boeing has undercut the price market with its offering. The reason the 777X has stalled is that the 777X is in the "DJ's" realm on the chart.  The price is not right and the distance too thin for a reconfiguration of the marketplace. The final Venn diagram tells Boeing, 

"if you don't listen to me there will be severe consequences!" 

Boeing will sell more 777X after it enters the market because it reaches and it settles into the blank spaces of "put your hands in the air", near the center, and on either side of the 787 pole position in this diagram.

An Every Member Canvass

An old school term for going around a membership and seeing whose in. In Boeing's case, the club includes those who are currently flying firmed up or delivered 787s from prior orders. The importance of this "Club" has spurred Boeing to make a 14 month 787 production goal with its suppliers and customers. It has or will have the orders to support this commitment. The case in point is United has now firmed up another nine 787-9 on Boeing's books. By the end of this year, more orders will be added. How many is pure conjecture but any indication of this order goal is that another 50 orders remain to be gleaned from the marketplace during 2018?

I haven't forgotten the 40 hanging orders for the 787-10 "committed" by Emirates during this year but has not yet firmed. That number could be part of Boeing's sales canvass of how many 787's its current customers are signaling as an eventual "Firm" order. 

In a perspective view, Boeing could book 170 787's during 2018. That would be a pinnacle year when no new Boeing 787 model types were introduced and only current models were ordered. This also would be "a great disappointment" for Airbus as Boeing's customers are reloading the order gun with Boeing's bullet-nosed 787's. Whatever is not booked this year could flow into next year thus making the decision to increase 787 production to 14 a month a logical decision. Boeing then needed to ramp up production through its supplier base giving it a long enough lead time for its supplier base.

Only 644 units of the 787 remain to be delivered at this time and a healthy order year makes the 14 a month goal possible. Boeing has made its customer canvass with those already held 787's in its respective fleets. So Boeing has a ballpark number of how many 787's it will need over the next five years for satisfying its customer's needs. A 14 a month pace times 60 months or five years would require 840 unit backlog of 787's where now it only has 644 units yet to be built. 

Boeing needs another 196 787's ordered over the next five years and that "canvass" plus committed orders suggest it has met that objective easily. Taking this assumption further, it also spills into the deferred costs reduction of its $24 Billion to go from about $30 Billion initially. The unit analysis of 1398 total 787's booked will grow to 1594 if Boeing receives another 196 orders during the next 60 months. That is achievable and Boeing already knows what it can do over the next five years driving the deferred cost to zero long before the fifth year arrives.