Lindbergh Arrives at Le Bourget in 2017 Ninety Years Later.

The International Paris Air Show takes place for the fifty-second time on 7 days from Mon., June 19, 2017 to Sun., June 25, 2017 in Le Bourget.

Charles Lindbergh landed at Les Bourget on May 21, 1927 at 10:22 PM Paris time in a single aisle aircraft 90 years ago. He achieved the nick name “Lucky Lindy” for this feat. Not to be forgotten, the Paris Airshow is for the daring and brave. The $ 25,000 Orteig prize no longer exists as Lindbergh and his partners collected the prize.

Acknowledging the website: Historical Log Of Lindberg’s Flight

Lindbergh's Transatlantic Flight: New York to Paris Timeline, May 20-21, 1927

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Charles Lindbergh

Photo by Harris & Ewing

7:52am - Charles Lindbergh takes off from Roosevelt Field, Long Island, New York. The heavy plane, loaded with 450 gallons of fuel, clears telephone wires at the end of the runway by only 20 feet.

8:52am - Altitude: 500 ft. Wind velocity: 0 mph. Currently over Rhode Island. Except for some turbulence, the flight over Long Island Sound and Connecticut was uneventful. Only 3,500 miles to Paris.

9:52am - Boston lies behind the plane; Cape Cod is to the right. Altitude: 150 ft. Airspeed: 107 mph. Wind velocity: 0 mph.

10:52am - There's a breeze blowing from the NW at 10mph. Lindbergh begins to feel tired, although only four hours have passed since leaving New York. He descends and flies within ten feet of the water to help keep his mind clear.

11:52am - Four hundred miles from New York. Altitude: 200 ft. Nova Scotia appears ahead. After flying over the Gulf of Maine, the Spirit of St. Louis is only six miles, or 2 degrees, off course.

12:52pm - Wind velocity has increased to 30 mph. Lindbergh flies over a mountain range. Clouds soon appear and thicken as the Spirit of St. Louis approaches a storm front.

2:52pm - Altitude: 600 ft. Air speed: 96 mph. Lindbergh's course takes him away from the edge of the storm. Wind velocity has dropped to 15 mph.

3:52pm - The eastern edge of Nova Scotia's Cape Breton Island lies below. In minutes Lindbergh will be over water again. Although it's only the afternoon of the first day, Lindbergh struggles to stay awake.

5:52pm - Flying along the southern coast of Newfoundland. Altitude: 300 ft. Air speed: 92 mph. Wind velocity: 20 mph.

7:52pm - Stars begin to appear in the sky as night falls. The sea below is completely obscured by fog. Lindbergh climbs from an altitude of 800 ft to 7500 ft to stay above the quickly-rising cloud.

8:52pm - Altitude: 10,000 ft. The cloud that first appeared as fog is still below. A thunderhead looms ahead. Lindbergh files into the towering cloud, then turns back after noticing ice forming on the plane.

10:52pm - Lindbergh's fight to keep his eyelids open continues. To keep warm, Lindbergh considers closing the plane's windows, but then decides that he needs the cold, fresh air to help stay awake.

11:52pm - Altitude: 10,000 ft. Air speed: 90 mph. Five hundred miles from Newfoundland. The air has warmed -- there's no ice remaining on the plane.

1:52am - Halfway to Paris. Eighteen hours into the flight. Instead of feeling as though he should celebrate (as he had planned), Lindbergh feels only dread: eighteen long hours to go.

2:52am - Daylight! Because Lindbergh has travelled through several time zones, dawn comes earlier. The light revives the pilot for a while, but then drowsiness returns. He even falls asleep, but only for a moment.

4:52am - Flying in the fog. Lindbergh continually falls asleep with his eyes open, then awakens seconds, possibly minutes, later. The pilot also begins to hallucinate. Finally, after flying for hours in or above the fog, the skies begin to clear.

7:52am - Twenty-four hours have elapsed since taking off from New York. Lindbergh does not feel as tired.

9:52am - Several small fishing boats spotted. Lindbergh circles and flies by closely, hoping to yell for directions, but no fishermen appear on the boats' decks.

10:52am - Local time: 3:00pm. Lindbergh spots land to his left and veers toward it. Refering to his charts, he identifies the land to be the southern tip of Ireland. The Spirit of St. Louis is 2.5 hours ahead of schedule and less than three miles off course.

12:52pm - Wanting to reach the French coast in daylight, Lindbergh increases air speed to 110 mph. The English coast appears ahead. The pilot is now wide awake.

2:52pm - The sun sets as the Spirit of St. Louis flies over the coastal French town of Cherbourg. Only two hundred miles to Paris.

5:22pm - The Spirit of St. Louis touches down at the Le Bourget Aerodrome, Paris, France. Local time: 10:22pm. Total flight time: 33 hours, 30 minutes, 29.8 seconds. Charles Lindbergh had not slept in 55 hours. Source: The Spirit of St. Louis, by Charles A. Lindbergh

Oh how times have changed in ninety years of flying to Europe. No longer does a pilot or passenger endure exhaustion from not sleeping. Paris/Le Bourget is the show and America has a definite presence. It could offer a new MOM 797 at the show as if it were claiming another Orteig price once again. A slam against Europe and its A-321 NEO. There is rumblings coming from Boeing and its officers, as references are made about a whole new 797 twin aisle aircraft proposal in the makings.  Is it the long awaited 757 replacement completing Boeing’s family of Aircraft? Maybe Paris in the spring is the real deal and love once again shows at the show for all aviation enthusiast. 

Airbus Loses Some Ground to Boeing With Orders and Deliveries 2017

Airbus numbers are out and as soon as possible there will be Boeing numbers in which to compare critical data. In total Airbus has stumbled out of the data gate. Boeing will surpass Airbus in several categories in both orders and deliveries. A subtle change has occurred in the all-in-all backlog total. Boeing will have a smaller unit and dollar value backlog again as Airbus' decade of the NEO has surpassed Boeing order totals by a wide margin. However, there is a turning and balancing of the market for more of a fifty-fifty split between the mega builders. In Fig. 1 the total backlog value has shrunk for Airbus and the book to bill ration during the first two months of 2017 goes negative in a significant way. Airbus has ten more months to make this up and it may accomplish a fatter backlog by years end once again. 

Fig. 1

Boeing on the other hand continues to shrink its backlog in units and value at a steady pace and it has outperformed Airbus during the first two months of 2017. The data is incomplete but preliminary numbers are based on data available before Boeing will publish its February numbers on March 9, 2017. The early numbers suggests Boeing had a consistent February over the Airbus slow down. The next posting will demonstrate the head to head" World's Largest Framer of Aircraft 2017" version with Boeing having an early lead again. However, Boeing may yet receive more orders than Airbus during 2017 and it will likely out produce Airbus within the same period. 

Fig. 2

Boeing 787 Numbers During February 2017

Boeing program numbers have moved under 700 Dreamliners to go with 1,207 ordered

Orders as shown in Fig. 1 below, middle chart: 

Fig 1.

Boeing has slipped below 12 a month delivery pace over the last 90 days averaging period. Shown in Fig 2. below:

Fig 2.

Program at a glance in a year by year summary.

Fig 3.

Fig 4.

Fig 5.

787-8 Is Winding Down To Better Things

Exactly how much of this market remains? The 787-8 does not receive new orders like a drunken salesman in the bar ordering drinks for everyone. It will barely produce:

·       By David Wren dwren@postandcourier.com   Quotation below

And Uresh Sheth numbers: ALL Things 787 projections of production and delivery statistics.

“Looking into the future, Boeing has just 26 787-8s on its production schedule through 2018 compared with plans to build 210 787-9 models, according to Uresh Sheth, ALLTHINGS787. The newest and largest Dreamliner, the 787-10 built exclusively in North Charleston, has 15 slots on the production chart through the end of next year.”

The quotation and information provided above will also show,  that only 90 of the 787-8 remain to be delivered and a further 23 787-8 will be delivered during this year out of a possible 145 787’s for all types scheduled for 2017. With that realization, an examination of the remaining undelivered 787-8 order book has many inferences.

All THINGS 787 Derived Charts below:

Fig.1

Fig-1 Above demonstrates the raw order book yet to be delivered with those already delivered and finally those in the remaining backlog. It stands @90 to go with few orders on the horizon for its type. Boeing needs to revisit the first born of the family and give it a make-over in a new market segment. Winging IT has already written enough about MOM aircraft suggesting a move in this direction for the 787-300 rebirth. (The 787-300 Redux). “Ahora Nunca!” The slogan for addressing the ninety 787-800 backlog. Announcing a new version isn't over-stepping vast production challenges for the 777-9X, 737-Max or the 787-10 makings in the near term. It will take more than three years ramping-up the 787-8 renewal member having a revised body type completing the line of aircraft and thus bridging its single aisle line-up in the market place.

Fig.2 All Things 787 reference

Above in figure 2, demonstrates the possible deliveries for those customers who have yet to receive its first 787-8. This number is over half of the remaining 787-8's in the backlog. Looking at each customer on this list the risk exist few will be delivered and the remaining few will be further out on the delivery schedule. It has become a 787-9 and 787-10 show going forward as the 787-8 slumps into its repose.

Fig. 3 All Things 787 reference

Figure 3, above shows the whole dichotomy of the 787 family of aircraft yet to deliver and a corresponding percentage of backlog remaining. It is clear to see the way forward for Boeing is the Middle Of the Market using the 787 concept and not the Max concept while only 90 787-8's remain to be built. Boeing has three years to fold in a spin-off long after the 787-10 and 777-9X flies and is delivered. The 737 Max will have long flown the coup in this three years future period of where Boeing is going.

The case comes from the numbers above, assuming Boeing's propensity to expand its market and it will no longer watch Airbus steals the market away as did the A-321 NEO Boeing debacle.

The 787-300 Redux

Boeing could regroup its plan for the 787 family now that the 787-ten reaches its production threshold. The failure was pushing a middle of the market wide body because Japan ordered it. There was no salient business supporting a 5,000 Km 290 passenger aircraft. There is still no need for such a configuration.

Wikipedia small reference note:
“The -3 was going to be the smallest and would have the shortest range at about 5000 km, and would fly about 290 people. It would have replace the Boeing 747-400D (the D stands for domestic, which means flights that take-off and land in the same country) that was used by two Japanese airlines. At first these Japanese airlines had ordered the 787-3, but since the plane was late the airlines cancelled their orders. This made Boeing stop making the 787-3.”

Rethinking the cancelation of the 787-300 has made a full circle since 2010, when it was expelled as part of the family of 787’s. After much consideration a new formulation for the 787-300 should be on the table. The A321-NEO is the guide on for such a discussion after airbus has taken in about 1,400 such orders since the 757 ceased production.

Building it with a smaller barrel diameter for the fuselage and reconfiguring an engine matching is weight and size would be an academic exercise and not ground breaking. The cost of bringing one of these would sink a few billion dollars but would also kill the A-321-NEO single aisle dominance.

A down sized body would fit going seven across as a dual aisle. Eliminating two seats per row from a 18 foot wide 787-8 could shrink the 787-300 fuselage by about three feet. Seven times 34 rows is 238 passengers, beating the A-321 by a long shot. The A-321 NEO asking price is 115 Million. A Boeing 787-300 with its 240 seats beats the A321-NEO’s 185 seats by 55 paying seats. Weights of aircraft and capacity for each would make a 787-300 an attractive option in higher density markets.

The A-321 at 206,000 lbs vs 500,00lbs for the 787-800 could compete with a trimmed 787-300 would have considerably less weight counting its fuel and reduced frame size and engine configuration. It could come in at around 330,000 lbs fully loaded and have an empty weight of around 280,000 lbs. However with its expanded number seats it works out at around 1,300 lbs per seat of aircraft weight, for both Airbus and Boeing given these assumptions.

The range and passenger differences favor a right sized 787-300 over any single aisle proposed today. Boeing could sell about 1,000 or more of lightly configured 787-300’s in the near term. The market place has changed since the cancellation of the original 787-300 in 2010.

Boeing and Singapore Air Validate A "Sea Change"

The A-380 is bigger than most visionary predictions. Boeing complained when the A-380 first delivered that it had a shorten order book and Airbus wouldn’t turn a profit with the big bird. Boeing believed that from its own waning 747 orders. It didn’t expect to beat the A-380 many attributes, but did want to dampen the Airbus enthusiasm for its Opus Grande rendition of "Ride of the Valkyries". The Airbus A-380 will never make it to Valhalla.

This visual metaphor for the A-380 has a group of back-slapping Boeing execs restraining from singing the “I told you so chorus” as Singapore Air unloads its leased A-380’s (5) and will hold on to its remaining nineteen A-380’s it had purchased.

If Batman’s Robin were in the house you might hear a “Holy flying pig” exclamation! Because Boeing just sold 20 777-9X to Singapore Air. While having only nineteen A-380’s in its fleet, the message is not lost on the aviation world as it will receive 20 777-9X over the next years in a stream of deliveries mirroring the same retirement rate for Singapore’s fleet of A-380’s in total. The icing came when Singapore had already booked 30 of Boeing’s 787-10, thus covering every route Singapore had and will have going forward. It ordered an additional nineteen 787-10’s for expansions of its Markets.

Seats are seats going everywhere:

• A-380: 545 seats X 19 = 10,355 passengers going 19 places to and fro.
• 777-9X: 405 seats X 20   = 8,100 going 20 places.
• 787-10: 330 seat X 49    = 16,170 going 49 places.

There is ample room to replace the A-380, as a planner now has 24,270 Boeing seats that can fly to 69 locations a day. Hanging on to the A-380 would handcuff Singapore Air from its market expansion plans when it goes long or regional risking not filling seats.

Singapore can now open up new routes with the Boeing orders. Even though it was keen on the A-350’s ordered for its fleets, the signal is loud and long Boeing has a critical offering that completes Singapore’s plans. It didn’t order more A-350’s? A two manufacturer fleet gives Singapore dominance beyond it region for years to come, but the A-380 is good until the last 777-9X is delivered from this recent order.

A further danger exists for Airbus if Singapore develops longer thin routes requiring less passenger density. It may order some 777-8X when those routes are established. The flexing of commonality from type to type is way more flexible with Boeing than Airbus in this case.

A final thought, the aviation world watches each other with due diligence because opportunities are shrinking as every airline expands its footprints. The Middle East is ahead of the curve with its order books, however China lags and has notice this Singapore nuance. Then EVA Air ordered 24 787-10’s. There is a sea change happening and Boeing has caught a tailwind from that change.

There Is A New Mom on The Block, 787-10

Yes, you read it right, the 787-10 is Asia’s MOM and here's why:

• Groomed for 330 seats
• Range 6,450 miles
• 25% fuel efficiency improvement over models it Replaces (777-200).

What gives with the MOM (middle of the market) moniker? Well Boeing has been deciding what to do with its 757 replacement. Its done nothing that would please Winging It in this case. It hasn't announced a new champion MOM. The 737-9 MAX is a replacement for the 737-900 NG. However, stumbling on to this idea, Boeing suckered punched its rival with the 787-10 offering and roll-out.

The new MOM arrived expanding seating for high density markets going intercontinental. Isn't that what the 757 was designed to do? Fly the pond packing customers on-board. That smells like a MOM template after all and the A321-NEO doesn't pack the same efficiency as the 787-10 does when loading its 330 passengers, and it can't pack the passengers on board like the 787-10 does (second mention in a row). The A-321-NEO doesn't do the Pacific Rim. The 787-10 does with room to spare.

Price is a concern for mid wide body buyers when it comes to any MOM customers. However, the world grew significantly bigger when the 757 was taking its dive 13 years back.

You may think this proposition of being a MOM replacement is ludicrous however, listen to the sales pitch first and catch a glimmer at this devious concept. The A-330 is a minor league player with all its versions. The A321-NEO is bleeding Boeing red. The A-321 price is 126 million listed. The A-330 starts at 231 million and then goes up to 287 million at the top where the 787-10 goes for $306 million. Big price indeed but will customers go for it?

The Middle of the Market 787-10 is for an extended range while getting the bang for the buck. The A-321NEO is a lady in waiting for someone to knock her off her perch. The newest A-330-900 NEO rendition is a fence straddle and tries on the cheap irritate the 787 family.

However looking deeper when the 757 stopped production the largest market in the world had not yet emerged. China grew into a big sphere of commercial influence and can reach everywhere it needs to go under 6,000 miles. This is where the 787-10 model comes in, carrying a higher capacity. The A-321 needs two aircraft to the one 787-10 to get the job completed for moving copious amounts of Chinese passengers going under 6,000 miles. Eva Air saw this and ordered 24 787-10's. Singapore came back and ordered an additional nineteen 787-10's while totaling its own fleet size upwards for 49 of the 787-10's. In all that is an Asian fleet compliment of 73 of the 787-10's ordered before China even weighs in on the aircraft.

Boeing could have made the 787-10 fly a bit further but didn't need to from its own research. The 787-10 can reach 90% of the world's destinations with its range of 6,430 miles. It will probably fly farther than that after testing is complete in 2017. Engine refinements with actual performance numbers will tell if they engineered it correctly.

The single aisle MOM is dead and makes way for the giant 787-10 serving 330 passengers every time it lands. Having the A-330-900 NEO range is not as important as it seats forty-three less revenue seats than the 787- 10, and about a dozen seats less than the average 300 seat 787-9. The only damage was done to the 787-8 comes from the A-330-900 NEO, which acts as a straw replacement after Airbus failed A-350-800 attempt. However the 240 million 787-8 asking price is considerably better than the Airbus A-330-900 NEO. 

The seat capacity and range capability are the 787-10's strong attributes which beats out its competition for many reasons. It has not been mentioned how efficient this aircraft will be once loaded with passengers. It should be Asia's Middle of the Market work horse.

Finding Nemo The Flying Fish

The pursuit of the Holy Grail is a much related story by classic writers and movie promoters. In that same mold came the Disney movie Finding Nemo, a story of a fish who lost his way in the deep blue ocean and searched for his home. As vast as the ocean the story had a happy ending as required by Disney productions.

The line-up of airplane classes and the much sought after market sweet spot has been discussed researched and analyzed to no real certainty so the makers of aircraft end up throwing airplane darts at the dart board as in search of the Holy bull’s eye or a Flying fish named Nemo. The makers of airplane framers set-up data sets and forecasting models aiding them in finding the bulls eye or Nemo the flying fish. A Holy Grail for which luck pours over of its edge is expected from this pursuit.

Now comes reality. The airplane wars are a competition between two mega builders vying for the title of world's largest airplane maker. All the money, profits, and riches come from that proclamation of "World’s Largest". A maker only has to make more airplanes than the other maker in any given year. The maker who finds the holy flying fish named Nemo should prevail over the other maker.

Airbus has taken the following rounds to date. The A321NEO and the A-330 tin types over the Boeing 737-900 and 767. In fact the disparity is large enough that the A-330 aircraft has attacked the Boeing 787 from its rear flank. However, Boring has a victory or two as well. It could be said the 787 family has stalled the A350 family. The 747-8i has tripped-up the A380 within a very thin market. The 777X offering has stymied the A350-1000 from making a ripple over the pond. While looking for the flying fish named Nemo both are at a grid lock and remain searching for the over-arching tie breaker. The story has not ended as the 777X has not flown. Something must give but not without a battle. Winning the battle doesn't mean winning the war. It’s so complicated writing stories becomes futile for finding an ending.

Both makers find s sustainability problem of production. The wide body orders are not coming fast enough from an exhaustion of market demand or need. The wide body mark is pausing until it finds itself again. The requiring factor for this market is a catalyst opening up the order books. It won't come from presentations nor marketing technique but will come from external conditions such fuel prices going upward and developing markets are starved of flying fish capability. Bask to the forecasting model. In the beginning was an inference it would get complicated. Both makers hope to happen upon a silver bullet shot unraveling the complexity of finding the Grail or the fish.

Forecasting again comes into play when considering firing a silver bullet. Which caliber and how many grains loaded are needed for the perfect shot at the bull’s eye? Boeing has fired a 777X and Airbus responded with the A-350-1000 and maybe more model numbers are added at the dicey end of the airplane dichotomy, called wide body.

Wide bodies have more profit dollars per frame but less future opportunity within its class. Single aisle has more opportunity as world growth expands but less profit dollars per frame. Airbus has an unwieldy single aisle backlog where Boeing can see the light at the end of its tunnel within its single aisle order book.

In order to find Nemo the Flying fish, one maker must solve the puzzle ahead of the other maker. That can be done once the Holy Grail of aviation is obtained. Then the trillion dollar question is resolved. Once again the key to all this is from forecasting and making the lucky shot before the other does make that shot. Nemo is found when success reveals its lucky character where the other has no answer.

Part of The Game is Stealing The Wide Body Market

Airbus learned a long time ago as in the 1990's to bring to market a new concept before its competitor could as found in the single aisle market with its NEO A-320's during the years 2010-2016. It romped over Boeing bursting out with more than 5,000 units sold. Boeing came out second with 3,600 737 Max sold. However a bigger influence on this strategy of First to Market comes the condition of Market forecasting. Using the Boeing data of market forecasting demonstrates how Boeing has cut Airbus off at the pass.

Fig. 1 Boeing Data Source as of 12-31-2016

Boeing has stated in its forecast the market will need:

"On the wide body side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies such as the 787, 777 and 777X.

With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters." 

In this discussion several assumptions should be made. Boeing's forecast is accurate and world conditions remain seasonally straight going forward or in other words the world remains stable.

The below chart opens a discussion of wide body and of the large wide body stealing from Boeing over Airbus starting with the 777-9X.

Fig.2 Looking at the potential. As of 12-31-2016: The Boeing Forecast for demand.

The focus is on the last lines of the market by size and capability of aircraft offered. Both Boeing and Airbus have bracketed each other found in the backlog data and the future is open for single aisle where Boeing seeks opportunity for 4,096 small duo aisles. The large wide body includes the A-350-900 and A-350-1000 with seating between 300-400. Its undelivered advantage is centered on its key aircraft the A-350-900. However Boeing splits this anomaly in the A-350 seating when the 787-8 and 787-9 is at 240 and 294 seats respectively, making the 787-9 classed in the small wide body data by this chart when it could be considered a medium body by seating capacity. The Airbus arrangement pushes ahead of Boeing in a bracketed manner. It tries to undercut Boeing with its A-330 NEO's at one end and then beat it in the large end with the A-350-1000 types of aircraft.

Boeing has beaten back the A-350-900 attempts with its medium WB's (787-9) 787-10, and 777-300- ER's. The Boeing Bracketing occurs with the top end of the market with its 777-9X and 8X order book where Airbus cannot sink billions into an answer for this line- up, since the remaining large market forecast is relatively small. 

That end has forecasted room for 2,391 medium wide Body orders spanning the 300-400 seat capacity over the next 20 years. This number works out for a market wide availability of taking orders for up to 119 aircraft a year from both maker's combined. The 777-9X has stolen the forecasted availability (large wide body) undercutting future aspiration for any new A-380 orders while giving the 747-8i a nice send-off. A 777-10X concept is restrained by how litle room remains at the super large end. That end only has room for only 139 more large air-frames ordered in the upcoming years thus ending the Airbus fantasy for the A-350-2000. 

The market has responded with this deadlock. It isn't ordering anymore A-380's or 747-8i's as that class has already dried up the potential long before Airbus intended. The 747-8i was a lost leader also intended for slowing the A-380 onslaught of orders from the beginning. It did its job and now the market "Big's" have moved on to the 777-9X order book were it now stands at 326 or so orders.

The 777-8X is a one-off gap filler making the 777-9X a stronger proposition as the 8X addresses the 777-200LR retirement. Its range and seating capacity of around 350 seats neatly folds in commonality strategy for having a family of aircraft even though less than sixty have been ordered and no further orders from Boeing for the 777-8X have been taken. 

The A-350-900 and A-350-1000 is an Airbus attempt at bracketing Boeing with these offerings having a 330 -366 seat capacity for its customers. The Boeing recommendations for seat count as follows from its family of aircraft. The 787-9 seats 294, the 777-8x seats about 356, and the 777-9X attacks the Jumbo end with 405 seats. There is no market at this time for a Boeing 777-10X seating about 450. The -10X would truly replace the 747-8i with comparable capacity and superior efficiency.

When reading and studying the Boeing 20 year outlook it appears it is a real dog fight having no end, but Boeing has filled the Big End of the wide body market before Airbus could get a "Big" design into production. This condition is leaving little room for potential orders in the next decade as only 139 remain from predictions when factoring on order  backlog. The 777-9X slots have already stolen this market from its 530 stated potential having 326 of the 777-X's already ordered. This leaves a remainder of 139  "Big's" available for the whole of the market within this forecast until 2035.

The Art of The Canadian F-35 Deal

US President Donald Trump is in a position to make a deal with Prime minister Trudeau of Canada, AKA the Canadian government's winner of its national election who had no idea Trump would be the US President. Trudeau believed his deal making would be validated with a Democrat winning the White House back when Obama was still president. The prime minister made a campaign promise. It would suspend the acquisition of its F-35 procurement if elected. Go fish Lockheed but not in Canadian waters was his campaign promise. Trudeau being a sensible leader talked to his military chief and concluded the F/A 18C, "C" for Canada was the popular choice for defending the North Slope.

Boeing promptly popped another beer can gleefully and rendered to Canada a replacement deal for its F/A-18 CF ageing version even written on Canadian paper products. Thus upsetting the balance of power in North America. The power is not military might but a discussion who will defend whom and who will pay for it. Canada positioned itself as a country, if in a fix, will depend on the US taxpayers for bailing out the defense of the Canadian Shield, by coming from Alaska in a time of war. The Canadian brew has left the US with mud in its face on falling down on deal for about 65 of the F-35 type because it was "too expensive".

By the way, Canada still makes an F-35 engineering contribution and is getting US Taxpayer money for that R&D enterprise with the hope of Lockheed building those F-35's paid by the rich Canadian brew dollars going north. However, Canada while going on the cheap, is preferring to refresh its air wings with new F/A-18CF's and then will look to the US for its ultimate defense in time of war or invasion from the great white north.

But the deal maker Trump won the office of president and any self-respecting deal-maker would put pressure on Canada by saying the F-35 is no longer for sale to the Canadian military at any price since it canceled its deal with the US.

The F-18CF suits Canada just fine whether it’s the old aging version or a handful of new built Boeing versions. By the way, if Canada is invaded Trump will defend Alaska with its last F-35. Someone mentioned NATO or some such drivel about a treaty. Then Trump mentioned sending aging A-10's North in time of treaty trouble, as some kind of lend/lease deal coming from the same school of WWII lend/lease deal makers as an upgraded 3.0 deal package.

Trump came forward and tweeted, "keep your hockey sticks, they crack skulls, but we won't sell you Alaskan Dog sleds for your national defense". The follow-on tweet came. “I thought we were neighbors and you were allied with us on defending North America what happened?"

"If Canada has a problem with the F-35 talk to Boeing they will defend your airspace with a slightly used AF1",tweeted Trump. 

North American Defense Memorandum: When the invading hoards get within eye sight of Niagara Falls then we'll do a fifty-four-forty or fight routine and give Oregon back to Canada because we can! 

Tweet three,"The Portlandians will never know the difference anyways as the smoke rises from coffee houses within the greater Mt. Hood eye sore". 

"That's so Trump", said a bystander for treaty rights for which anyone with sense doesn't know America has treaty rights North of South Dakota pipeline. "It’s in the Bill of Right of the US constitution. Doesn't Trudeau know who's he messing with when you cancel a deal?" Tweet four,"One good action deserves an opposite and equal reaction." 

Trump again tweets, "we’ll build a Canadian Wall and take that Trudeau".

An eastern Montana farmer opposes the wall idea as he has 600 acres of good bottom land in Canada. Trump tweets again, "have a head ache- am going in the opposite direction Mar a Lago for some more Lockheed gratuitous shrimp.

"Is the Invasion of Canada still on?” shouts a crowd gathering at the Boeing/Everett assembly airplane center.

Before things get out of hand, President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada find common ground in the saving face category. Trump strikes the deal that he will lease 65 F-35's for fifty years at 2 million Canadian dollars a year for each of the lot. The US will buy those 65 F-35 from Lockheed and promises Boeing, it will buy equal amounts of up to 100 each of the F-35C's and FA-18's -v -4.5 for the US Navy. 

Giving the Navy its replacement wings it desperately needs.

PM Trudeau makes a speech to the Canadian Parliament, “President Trump has made a deal with Canada for our F-35's for which no one could have foretold would happen when I was elected. In the best interest of Canadian defense, we will lease 65 F-35 for 2 million Canadian dollars a year based on the 2017 Canadian dollar value found on January 1, 2017. In total that will amount to the number of aircraft each year under lease when delivered and will grow to the full number in the next ten years when Canada receives its last F-35. It won't cost Canada a dime because the American Taxpayer will pay for it. I don't know how, but they’ll pay.

That sent the "press" to their calculators and came up with this. Canada will lease-on to 65 of the F-35's for about 1.5 million US dollars a year. The full potential revenue to the US after ten years will amount to an annual lease price of 94.5 Million in Canadian dollars at which time 65 F-35 (CF's 😀)will have been delivered during the first ten leasing periods. The lease completes December 2077 or there about (😅).

Trudeau quips, "Under the US/Canadian Treaty, we must have one of those somewhere, the US will supplement the Canadian defense budget by $2 Million US dollars a month per aircraft delivered until lease agreement ends in 2077 (maybe?). Canada does not pay one Canadian Dime in this deal even though Donald Trump is the world's best deal maker.

In a Canadian Parliament back room, a Boeing VP, pops open another brew in gleeful anticipation of the 100 F-18's the Navy and the Canadian F-18CF's 25 just ordered in the last 48 hours. The art of the deal isn't dead as everybody wins with a "Canada First" policy and then the "Boeing First" Policy shake of hands for 25 F-18 from its gratuitous F-18C's deal made just before the "speech". Ain't "America First" just a great Trump policy?