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Friday, February 17, 2017

Trump Take Aways During 787-10 Introduction

Donald Trump showed both style and substance today in a unique back drop of the 787-10 parked outside the giant factory doors at Boeing Charleston SC facility. The site will be the only producer of the 787-10. It is the last in a series of 787 models to be built. Unlike the July 7, 2007 roll out of its sibling, 787-8, this could fly within a few months as all systems are real and live at this point of production. It just needs to be tested for Quality assurance purposes and then lit up for first flight.

The first roll out in Everett, Wa. was not a paper aircraft but more of a plastic airplane where the Charleston example is a genuine airplane with the President of the United States cheering along with the 5,000 plus Boeing employees seated in the massive hall made for airplane production.

Boeing Chief CEO, Dennis Muilenburg, was in his exuberant demeanor of sell, sell, sell mode; made it clear he was proud of the Boeing accomplishment and believes in his employees who put this key member of the 787 family together. It will seat 330 passengers as designed and more as airline customers may adjust interiors when pushing the 787-10 limits.

Image result for Trump 787-10
Left to right: President Trump, Dennis Mullenburg and 787-10 background. Boeing Employees foreground.


President Trump took the opportunity of validating/reminding about his campaign promises for jobs, American industrial expansion, and world trade conditions for which the Boeing Corporation must compete in an international environment. No mention of the recent IAM union vote failure this week as it was expected a "no vote" the South Carolina region. The comparison with Everett, Wa is stark as the unions in the Northwest represent most of Boeing's airplane workers. The battle line is between Union made verses the competitive ad hoc human resources made found within the south. This is Charleston's first test for building a new version of the 787 all on its own. The factory assembly becomes an important test as much as the fly-away testing.



Thursday, February 16, 2017

Dabbling Spreadsheets Airbus Boeing

Below is some spreadsheet doodling’s from reliable sources outside of Boeing.

The snapshot below will be used each month recapping many of the quick and dirty details regarding the commercial airplane competition between Airbus and Boeing.

Items of interest as follows:

·      Backlog value as of January 1, 2017
·      YTD orders added by both in units and corresponding $dollar values updated each period.
·      Total recap of Backlog units as they stand within 2017 YTD point in time.
·      2017 having the total value of both makers backlog charted.
·      A Book to Bill Ratio going forward after all orders and deliveries are accounted during the YTD 2017 periods.

    Below are January numbers included and a few February numbers as tested for this spreadsheet. The chart should be self explanatory as is viewed. Boeing data includes both months of January complete and the YTD February numbers from its website. However Airbus is derived from January numbers only. A month to month posting will have both makers on  the same page as data is made available during the following first week of the next month's reporting. Enjoy following this data through out the year.


 Fig. 1: YTD Backlog units and Book value for Boeing and Airbus Commercial Aviation progress.

Airbus Is A Suspect In Playing Dirty

Headlines:"from Belfast Telegraph"


The Serious Fraud Office has launched a criminal investigation into alleged fraud, bribery and corruption at civil aviation giant Airbus Group.

Oh my Airbus, as it claims the title "The Most Advance Aircraft In The World". No one paid attention to that baloney in the recent years anyways, only its advertising wing who pushed it forward.

Meanwhile, back in the trench warfare is a little noteworthy snippet. 

"Airbus cheats at marketing." 

A mustard gas like substance is permeating from the market place and investigators would like to know if Airbus is behind the smell.

Another dirty tactic floats up from the mega producer who preys upon Vulnerable Air Wings Inc. world wide. It sounds like a man who is standing on a street corner in his full Euro trench coat with watches wrapped around the forearm available at an incredible price.

Image result for street corner watch dealer



Belfast Telegraph Quote:


"In a statement released on Sunday, Airbus said: "Airbus Group has been informed by the SFO that it has opened a criminal investigation into allegations of fraud, bribery and corruption in the civil aviation business of Airbus Group relating to irregularities concerning third party consultants. Airbus Group continues to cooperate with the SFO."
An SFO spokesman confirmed: "The director of the Serious Fraud Office has opened a criminal investigation into allegations of fraud, bribery and corruption in the civil aviation business of Airbus Group. These allegations relate to irregularities concerning third-party consultants."
The SFO appealed for anyone with information about the case to contact them via a secure and confidential reporting channel on their website www.sfo.gov.uk.
The use of third-party middlemen in major commercial deals has been the target of anti-bribery legislation around the world.
Guidance issued for companies under the UK's Bribery Act 2010 warns that "the bribery risks associated with reliance on a third party agent representing a commercial organisation in negotiations with foreign public officials may be assessed as significant and accordingly require much more in the way of procedures to mitigate those risks".
Will anything happen? Nah, too much money and too many lawyers are involved it will just make it go away. However, the important thing here is it was reported at all, since Airbus has a reputation beyond reproach as it demonstrated by trying to sue Boeing in the World Courts over receiving "special Treatment" when Boeing obtained Tax Credits from the state of Washington, USA. As it was incentivized  for building and keeping the Boeing manufacturing in the Northwest State. After-all Airbus wouldn't receive favorable treatment from the Euro government for building the A-380 or A-350. It is too clean to try that fiasco.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Buy-Sell-Leaseback??? Airplanes!!!

Sell and lease back is strategic financial positioning.
The first thing on the table is get the definitions out of the way;


Winging It Made Simple

Image result for accounting nightmare



Wet Lease:

A wet lease is a leasing arrangement whereby one airline (the lessor) provides an aircraft, complete crew, maintenance, and insurance (ACMI) to another airline or other type of business acting as a broker of air travel (the lessee), which pays by hours operated.

Dry Lease:

A dry lease is a leasing arrangement whereby an aircraft financing entity (lessor), such as GECAS or AerCap, provides an aircraft without crew, ground staff etc.


Sell-Lease back:

Selling an entity aircraft asset to a leasing company and then lease back from same lessor for the same aircraft is usually results in a long term dry lease. The action turns the lease into an income statement type expense coming from its operation. At which point the former asset can no longer depreciate during its limited depreciation term allowed in the balance sheet (assets = liabilities) otherwise stopping any interest expense accrued. 

Blithering discussion:

Example: Tax worksheet modeling takes advantage of depreciation during a five-seven year depreciation schedule allowed, where it has has a limited duration of time for income tax write-offs claimed. In this case a 787 worth hundreds of millions is depreciated with the majority of its value during the first years of ownership. An entity can take a significant portion of any airplane value applying it towards the Income Tax liability during its early years of service.

However, to maximize cash flows and make efficient use of its assets an entity can sell its asset to a leasing company thus eliminating the remaining depreciation towards asset value. The lease back portion of the deal moves the aircraft out of its balance sheet status (which has a limited remaining depreciation advantage with a longer term loan interest expense value remaining) into an operational expense condition by the amount of the periodic lease payment amount. 

Instead of having an asset under generally accepted accounting principles, it morphs the asset into a lease expense on the Income statement. The leverage of this transaction reduces assets and reduces liabilities at the same time while moving cash flows to a monthly leasing expense line found on the Income statement for profit and loss and becomes an EBIT item affecting any Income Tax liability down the road.

The relationship of having aircraft for revenue routes and operating expense is greatly changed. Rather than asset and liability relationship for company valuations, the move has an immediate change in the relationship affecting the profit loss condition reported each year. Cash (liquid assets) is freed up for making more purchases using a leveraging lease back move for its inventory.

What occurs by this example: an airline buys the aircraft valued at purchase price through paying cash and borrowing money for the aircraft. The aircraft value is the asset while the cash is a reduction of its liquid assets. The money borrowed for the purchase is a corresponding liability amount equaling the asset balance reduced by cash plus adding the airplane’s valuation to the asset balance.

There is much more occurring with this example that can be explained reasonably and with limited information. The important point is aircraft companies needing fast access to more airplanes often divide its inventory up with buying and leasing its inventory. An entity can take advantage of both its assets for income tax purposes and/or its profit and loss record growing its retained earnings into an asset value.

Finding error is to human. Accounting is inhuman.

"T" Accounting Example:

Transactions for balancing assets = liabilities

Cash reduced: -10 million down payment

Airplane Value: + 100 million

Loan: -90 million

Asset Balance: 100 million

Loan of: 90 million equals the Asset Balance of 100 million via its -10 million cash reduction combined with $90 million loan.

THE LAST BUT NOT LEAST ITEM: Sale of asset to leasing company at a higher amount than the original purchase price from the manufacturer can become a significant capital gain for an entity strapped for cash.


More definitions and More Coffee Needed

Asset:

Inventory or property owned by a person or company, regarded as having value and available to meet debts, commitments, or legacies.

"growth in net assets"


"For every asset there as an equal liability for said person or company or corporation. Assets equal liabilities and remain in balance of value concerning each person, company, or corporate entity."

Depreciation:

noun
1.  A reduction in the value of an asset with the passage of time, due in particular to wear and tear.
synonyms:
 devaluing, decrease in value, lowering in value, reduction in value, cheapening, 
o   Decrease in the value of a currency relative to other currencies.
 Plural noun: depreciations

Expense:

offset (an item of expenditure) as an expense against taxable income.

Income Statement:

Also known as the profit and loss statement or statement of revenue and expense, the income statement is the one of three major financial statements in the annual report and 10-K. All public companies must submit these legal documents to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and investor public. The other two financial statements are the balance sheet and the statement of cash flows. All three provide investors with information about the state of the company's financial affairs, but the income statement is the only one that provides an overview of company sales and net income.

Profit or loss:

An income statement or profit and loss account (also referred to as a profit and loss statement (P&L), statement of profit or 
loss, revenue statement, statement of financial performance, earnings statement, operating statement, or statement of operations) is one of the financial statements of a company and shows the ...

Balance sheet:
noun
1.  A statement of the assets, liabilities, and capital of a business or other organization at a particular point in time, detailing the balance of income and expenditure over the preceding period.


Taxes:

What’s left over goes to the government J

The incredible mess above requires a 4-5 years of accounting and another 10 years for understanding. Having the 4-5 years down there remains another ten years for understanding. Therefore, keeping it somewhat simple is the goal and only for making a point. Understand what a “wet lease” and “dry lease” are and then understand what and “asset” and “expense” can do for a company.

If an airplane is an asset then there is a liability offsetting the asset such as loans and stockholder ownership. However, if an airplane is a lease it is not an asset, but an operational expense. No asset, no depreciation expense and no liability. An airline who is strapped for cash when expanding its fleet will buy, sell and leaseback aircraft leveraging its capital support its expansions at the same time.

Moving an asset off the books allows an airline to expense the total aircraft, crew and maintenance applied to a revenue stream as expenses. If the airline makes a profit (P/L), it can add that profit to a retained earnings process. Tax advantages arise in this flow. An asset is not part of the P/L revenue statement, only through depreciation expense, which is limited to Tax laws on depreciation schedules over time. 

However when leasing, it becomes an expense item as described in the above paragraph. This condition allows airlines to leverage its cash stream of uses for down payments and increase its fleet of revenue producing aircraft at the same time. No longer will it have to borrow billions of dollars for aircraft purchases and come up with the cash for entering into those types of financing. The lease becomes a pay as you go proposition matching revenue streams coming from each aircraft it leases with revenue and expenses. 

It must remain competitive with its peers during growth periods and leasing leverages a competitive position extending its inventory. When economic times change in the travel industry, drop those leases within a shorter time period rather than having to sell any owned aircraft risking a severe discount and experiencing a loss.

Saturday, February 11, 2017

777X Check-Mate's Airbus in Checkers?

Can the 777X program get its wings during 2017? The main thing, Boeing needs about another 150 777-X's orders placed to feel a sense of comfort as it will strive to build about 100 of its type each year. That arbitrarily production numbers fills the five year business cycle, requiring about 500 777X for the production cycle backlog. Currently the book stands at 326 777-X ordered since Singapore dissed Airbus. A significant number but only represents about 65% of five hundred units needed during a five year production plan, or a customer buying plan.

At the end of any five year period, Boeing already needs a reload for the 777X orders totaling another five hundred when keeping the annual production count at 100. Counting today’s backlog of 326 777X’s and going forward ten years from first delivery (2018-2019), gives Boeing  time to fill up 174 more 777X orders by 2022 and another 500 777X orders by 2029 totaling 626 777X ordered over the next 10 years. In other words Boeing needs about 62 777X ordered each year going forward for maintaining an optimal production pace for an extended period of time.

The Singapore Air order becomes a cross road for both manufacturer as the market ponders not having A-380 replacements and coupling with long range metrics from a customer perspective. Airbus wants a business case made for going forward with more A-350 models or an A-380 renovation called a NEO. However, this ship may have already sailed and Airbus was left at the dock!

Image result for 777x9 A-350 1000

When Boeing announced the 777X type, it had done its due diligence within the total market and needed to sew its family of aircraft together while beating Airbus to the draw. The Airbus dilemma, Airbus knew it was already shot when Boeing moved on the 777X announcement, and it now finds itself scrambling for an answer without spending billions. The A-380 is "Dead On Arrival", and Airbus knows it. The A-350-1000 has peaked while the A-350-2000 and A-350-8000 are billions away from becoming a reality. It will take Airbus at least five years to bring ether Airbus advanced wide body concepts to the market.

The long range mega planes market is a very thin one at that. City pairs from 7,000-9,000 miles are counted on ledger sheets with airlines forecasting and note pads. It doesn’t take a big computer analyzing if it will be profitable. Meanwhile, it takes multitudes of people and computers tracking every "single aisle" routing pairs as those routes are numbered in the thousands. 

Looking at the wide bodied end of opportunity is a two edge sword. First the 777X carries a lot of people. Secondly, there are limited opportunities for moving lots of people going from point A to point B farther than 8,000 miles. 

The 777X got there first. Remember when Airbus announced the A-320 NEO before Boeing was even ready for announcing the 737-Max a year later. Somebody got "fired" at Boeing for that mess-up.

The wide body announcement of the 777X several years back is the same thing in reverse for Airbus as what happened with Boeing during its single aisle debacle. Airbus wasn’t ready with gap filling its just launched A-350-900 wide body, and Boeing stole the thin market before it could even load up its drafting pencil lead. Boeing was playing chess and Airbus was player checkers, and it has now found itself check-mated at this time. 

Airbus can’t sacrifice the A-350-2000 even though it’s a rook, and not the single aisle pawn used to confound Boeing. Losing the wide body battle can crumble the Airbus castle. The A-380 is not a “Queen of the skies”, but it will retire off the board quicker than accountants can count any profit. 

The 777X once again angles across the chess board and captures the A-380 as if it were a bishop. Is the 777X a rook or a bishop? Singapore Airlines has hinted at retiring its fleet of A-380's through fleet reductions. The Singapore Boeing 777X order was no hint at all.


The Singapore Airlines order is a market game changer (20 777-X9's and 19 787-10's). Boeing can currently connect the dots from its single aisle to Jumbo size twin engine aircraft. The only hole in its scheme is with the A-321 NEO. A 737 Max-10 pawn would be a sacrificed piece on the board, as once again the Boeing "787 Knight" will rewrite the 757 market using a CFRP based Tweener in ten years. 

It’s coming, it’s just a matter of somebody else money before announcing or moving forward on various other programs such as the 737 Max, the 777X and 787-10. Boeing must stop spending somebody’s money on vast programs before the Tweener can get to the money trough or gets on the game board. 

Thursday, February 9, 2017

World's Largest Airplane Manufacturer Race Starts January 2017

The Airbus/Boeing horse race is on, “Whose Biggest Maker at  the end of 2017. There are obvious strengths and weaknesses coming from each in the running. Airbus has strength of Backlog. Boeing has strength of productivity. Airbus is far behind its customer’s planning cycle while Boeing cannot sustain its production surge for only a few more years as it has a lower backlog value than Airbus.

Fig.1 All financial calculation are based on "List" prices.






What this all means is the following:

·            Airbus has time for its productivity increasing upward from its enormous backlog.

·            Airbus needs to rapidly increase production drawing down its backlog

·            Boeing has little time for booking additional sales matching the Airbus backlog.

·            Boeing is running out of big ticket deliveries as the 747 retires and 777X is not ready for delivery.

·            Boeing having a 25 billion plus order year over Airbus will take it about six years for catching Airbus' lead

·            The backlog disparity can be advantageous for Boeing as they become more customer concentric for making deliveries.
  • Boeing can absorb more airshow orders than Airbus.
·        Airbus has a robust single aisle delivery potential greater than Boeing’s.      

Backlog build-up is the key for both manufacturers. The Boeing strength is managing its backlog with customer demand, where Airbus can’t out produce its own backlog with customer requirements for timely deliveries. In some cases customers may wait longer for a delivery out of its own financial sources available. 

Fig. 2  Boeing Single Aisle January 2017 YTD Match-up




Fig. 3  Airbus Single Aisle January 2017 Comparison YTD



Most corporate companies have five year plans where any manufacturer such as Airbus have an order backlog greater than five years of backlog coming from its single aisle production. The difficult task is optimal efficiency for production and a large enough just-in-time delivery schedule.

Having a right sized backlog assures lower prices from having large just-in-time parts ordering. A lumpy production cycle disrupts the ability of having lower parts pricing such as the 747 is currently experiencing. Optimal efficiency comes from a continuous production flow which takes advantage of all resources and gives customers the ability to plan its own future growth or replacements inventory.



Boeing is closer to this philosophy than Airbus, but Boeing is also closer to lowering its own production pace than Airbus which will contribute in time for whom becomes the world’s largest airplane manufacturer.

Even though Boeing deliveries where greater than its orders (748/668) during 2016, and all predictions lean towards a scant order year for both makers, it remains to be seen how this will impact both by years end 2017. However, two things are certain, 

Boeing will maintain productivity pace and Airbus will increase its productivity over its 2016 numbers.

Both mega builders have challenges which they must address. Boeing needs more orders and Airbus needs a level production flow for all its types ordered. 

Below are Winging It best information chart for the racing status with the number to look at units produced during 2017 and value of those units in total. 

The secondary analysis number is the backlog value and units to be built, as it will determine each corporate's stamina for the long run. Boeing leads on the backstretch but can it maintain its pace at an arbitrary finish line?

Fig. 4 Boeing 2017 YTD Orders Wide Body



Fig. 5 Airbus 2017 YTD Orders Wide Body


Fig. 6 Boeing January YTD Deliveries Wide Body




Fig. 7 Airbus 2017 YTD Deliveries Wide Body



The final period-one numbers demonstrates Boeing is out of the 2017 gate faster than Airbus in large number since the typical January "retooling" period is the slowest production time of the year. Even though Boeing reduced its backlog further than Airbus it is closer to its prime customer's wait time making room for future orders with delivery dates considering customer planning. Round 1 goes to Boeing by a long shot.