The 787 2016 Before Boeing Numbers Recap

The Pre Boeing 787-2016 Numbers Analysis is a daunting task when not knowing what cards Boeing may hold, since it has not announced anything but the Delta cancellation of 18  Dreamliners during the last month. Those were 787-8's and it hurt the backlog and order book. However, they is plenty of good new on the horizon for the order category. There are several large 787 orders hanging in the market place one of which may come from Emirates and Tim Clark. That announcement should come in the year 2017. There are some additional orders from the Chinese market which have yet to be confirm but are hanging on with MOU's.

The chart below (Fig. 1) main thing is the strong production year of 137 Dreamliners for 2016. Looking at the 694 in backlog illustrates a twofold impact. If a customer orders a Boeing wide body it could receive it before an Airbus placed order. Secondly, Boeing demonstrates a resiliency in the market place outpacing Airbus over the last several years over Airbus. Airbus since the beginning of 2013 has booked only a net of 162 A-350's. Boeing has booked a net 382 of its 787 family of aircraft.

This represent a greater than 2-1 booking pace over Airbus even long after it had announced selling its wide body.  

Fig. 1

Fig. 2, represents net numbers starting in 2012, marking the beginning of the delivery cycle for the 787 aircraft. Noting the order to delivery comparison over this time period shows almost a 1-1 book to bill rate. Five hundred 787's are billed and 427 are booked, returning a .85 book to bill rate. Ideal is a ratio of 1 after the backlog has been established. When first entering the market, the desirable rate should be well above the number 1 as production has not yet started until years later. In Boeing's case the .85 ratio is a measure at full production while having a healthy backlog. Boeing with a few great years could maintain a 1-1 ratio is it takes on another 150 ordered 787's in the next several years. That would be a Boeing sales goal.

Fig. 2

The ninety day moving average is a production efficiency number. Guidance was established in the first quarter of 2016 at 12 per month. The month of January 2016 only delivered seven 787's and it reached 12 a month by March 2016. However, fourth quarter 2016 only delivered 11 a month during this time period. Boeing also exceeded 12 a month pace during the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016.

Fig. 3

The Year Over year chart below demonstrates a steady growth of the program with predictable changes in both delivery and order dynamics. The latter being typically inconsistent.

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Mach 1.6 Is Possibly The Sweet Spot

Have you ever wondered about modern fighter jet speed? An assumption by many, "is the faster a fighter jet goes the more dominant it becomes as a fighter". In some cases that may be true but in other cases it may be a useless feature because the battle energy required comes from a slower speed in close quarters.

The F-35 development has startled many observer of having a top speed of only Mach 1.6 which falls below the faster breed of fighter going Mach 1.8 and higher with 2+. The answer may come from battle space efficiency, stealth and performance. What the F-35 gives up from being Mach 1.6 it will add on from being a far more efficient and invisible aircraft. In other words going fast would delimit the F-35's capabilities for which it was designed.

There may be a different assumption in play having the F-22 combined with having a F-35 commonality. The F-22 is the muscle where the F-35 is the brains when flying in formation. A flying formation of two F-22's combined with four F-35, communicates a need for further F-22's on order to complete with intense and purpose of total aerial combat.

The congress is looking to upload another 200 F-22's when money is found. If completed, then the F-35 becomes more deadly than its first take would suggest. It won't need to go Mach 1.8 as the F-22 goes Mach 2.0+ with stealth capabilities. The F-35 computers hook-up with the F-22 systems and sends it into combat with an autonomous pilot at the controls. Both the F-35 and F-22 become a greater force.

I would suggest that is the military thinking of synergism of both systems with each other. The F-35 is in its sweet spot at Mach 1.6 where its stealth makes it stay within its optimal capabilities of design and it can now operate from its most capable position given its multi functions. In other words, the balance between brains and muscle makes the F-35 a formidable and untouchable aircraft. Having the F-22 as its wing man makes the F-35 unreachable. No other nation has this type of one-two punch in its own formations. The F-35 is the screw driver and the F-22 is the hammer.

Thinking About The Grinch Visit At Delta For Christmas

Yes, Delta canceled 18 787-8's from its decade old order from Boeing. Does it hurt? The answer is what this contribution for discussion is about. The pomp and ceremony of a 1200 wide body order book has a smear on it. Delta had no intention long ago of completing this order. It was just a place holder for something in case Airbus could not do with its wide body, an A350. In fact Delta was set up for the Airbus A330-NEO class more than the 787-8. Then Airbus came out with the A350 and successfully moved it to the market.

Long had Delta switched its efforts towards obtaining an Airbus platform. It was as simple as becoming a single operating system company loaded with iPhones instead of having an Android based phones for its operation. Why does Delta prefer Airbus? The simple answer is because the mission and vision of Delta had a subtle change from the top. Some new people came "on board" over the years and joined the clamor of a one fleet world for various and seemingly important reasons. 

Having two fleet types containing both Boeing and Airbus is a theme Delta departed from when inserting its team of new leaders since the year 2005. The leadership analysis demonstrates a startling reveal on the ages of position holders and the respective start date for each in that position. The average age of top leadership is 58.7 years as of today and the average start date of an officer is 2013.

Note: The top tier execs for which almost all are highlighted in yellow averages 53 years of age. The advisory board members average age is 67.

Reuters has provided an Organization listing:  Winging It Analysis Added:

The column with yellow highlights illustrates an age range of 40-60 years suggesting personnel having a new and non -legacy attitude. 

The top of the executive organization has an average age of 53 years. Chairman of the Board is not included with the in-house leadership as that order begins below the Chairman of the Board.

What does all this mean? The new blood has taken the competitive route infusing commonality of inventory for all its aircraft. The one-off example, is the Boeing 737-900 with a total order standing for 120 of its type. This suggests an independent rule is applied for its single aisle segment within its inventory. 

However, Boeing is still vulnerable to Delta's mission and vision going forward. As the 737-900 fleet ages and after that order is completed or cancelled, Delta may opt to go A321-NEO completing its obvious mission/vision one fleet view. The new exec team has chosen to drink the "cool-aid" from the previous boards since 2005 at a time when Northwest's 787-8 order was first placed and as a pre-merger condition for which Delta absorbed.

For all intent and purpose, the 2005 Delta board was hedging its bet when merging with Northwest's 787-8 order and waited until Airbus got its act together on the wide-body segment. The 18-787-8 order merged with Delta was sketchy at best since 2005 pre-merger status with Northwest Airlines. The dropping of Delta's 787-8 order will adjust Boeing's order book by 1.5 percent, and as a further example, the Qatar order for its 787-9's during 2016 has increased the order book by 2.5 % at that moment in time. 

All-in-all there are changes causing a continuous flux from the commercial airplane market. Boeing has had about a half-a dozen years available for addressing the Delta reduction in orders for which it has already done so when booking more orders this year than expected.

Delta Vision/Mission Statement:

"We—Delta's employees, customers, and community partners together form a force for positive local and global change, dedicated to bettering standards of living and the environment where we and our customers live and work."

After analyzing the Delta Mission they missed the corporate version and painted in the employee version as its leading view for the company. It has the heft of a salad shooter.

Slogan:

"Delta Air Lines. We love to fly. And it shows."

Winging It Version: "Delta Air Lines, We love to Fly Airbus and it shows"

Competition Starts With Cement Slabs at Boeing

All the fixtures are bolted down on cement slabs. Fixtures are measured in tons and tons and need a lot of cement on which to sit upon. The 777 factory in Everett has major challenges as the order was given "continue 777-300-ER production while building a 777X and yeah it's in the same place". The problem is not so much a continuous flow from the 777-300-ER and back to the 777X in the same gigantic space, but having divergent technologies colliding on the factory floor.

A plastic wing assembled on a 777X is completely different than an aluminum wing attached to the 777-300ER. These are no small potatoes rolling through the assembly hall. The problem is so complex it will take a team of planners, engineers and mechanics in order to solve the gigantic puzzle. The final solution is years in the making going forward. The 777-300ER will be built for an additional ten years or longer, as the 777X becomes the new standard. In fact the 777-300ER may never be out of favor for some of Boeing's customers, as found with its 767. Freight 767's for FedEx and the KC-46's for the military both having recent orders is proving the modular space flexibility of building different purpose built types on the same line/space as a goal.

The production dance requires a little drop in productivity in the near term. A timely introduction with a new and different type of aircraft (777X) massive assembly is required. This "change" is from using CFRP wings and other components inserted on the 777X and then Boeing flips back to building a 777-300ER all in the same space at the same time. The Boeing dance is mapped out with use of "modular space" and the production floor changes after each milestone is reached for which changes the process flow. 

A definition of modular space: "is a space having an open architecture area flexible enough for installation of new processes and equipment designated for that process. Change within space is complimentary of change within the process occupying that space."  

Here's the plant's team feedback, "Get-er-done"


Example:

In an office building, a company may renovated 3,000 square feet at a time. However, Boeing will make and then close production bays as needed having the heft of 150,000 square per bay. Imagine an area the size of a Super Costco and then one can imagine the temporary space that each stage needs. Each inserting its footprint or closing a production bay as maturity of production process requires. The 777 production is so complicated it must transition towards a bi-production process of building different but similar aircraft each having different technologies all on the same line.

Boeing will leap frog production space as it transitions towards having the 777X model inserted into the Everett facility. Boeing must build every modular space with the capability of supporting immense manufacturing weights. Hence, a six foot thick cement slab is poured into a factory floor in order to take on any task the space may face in the next fifty years. 

Currently Boeing engineers are digging dirt that supported the 747 process back in 1968. A sense of flexibility for change on a massive scale is felt as if Boeing was tasked to move a cement Dam every 50 years while a river changes direction. The 777X impact is that river, and Boeing is digging deep before the year 2020 comes when the ramping up for the 777X process merges with the 777-300ER process. Both model must seamlessly keep the production flow going forward without any conflicting manufacturing impedance.

Boeing is challenging Airbus at the always improving state of mind.

The F-35 Is All About Smoke And Mirrors

Chinese FC-31 #001

The Chinese has released its FC-31, an off-the-shelf Chinese twin engine fighter design.

The F-35 can't haul as much armaments as the FC-31's eight tons of missiles and bombs. It doesn't go as fast as the FC-31. The Gyrfalcon will go Mach 1.8 which is faster than the F-35's Mach 1.6. The FC-31 does though have improved stealth over its recently shown Chinese built J-30. But what is not reveled is the "Smoke and Mirrors Division" (SMD) within the FC-31 capability.

Remember the troubled F-35 program in getting it right with its technologies, and now the program has brought the fusion to fruition. The FC-31 has just rolled out ten years after the F-35 made its debut. The Chinese are at least ten years behind in program development and now having a less sophisticated base version. 

The FC-31 technical muscle does not even compare with the F-22 muscle such as speed, weights and stealth. When looking at the F-35, one can quickly conclude it’s not about having twin engine performance, and payloads but about something more devious. The F-35 is about its SMD, which no one in the world has or has even begun to prove it has that capability. Sensor fusion needs a reliable power plant, and the PW-135 it that power plant driving everything F-35.

The FC-31 (China) has a long history of cheesy jet engines which may fail or cause huge maintenance attentions to keep it flying. If they have advanced its jet engine capability, then it is a baby step going forward and not a quantum leap forward which PW has mastered for the F-35.

The F-35 is not about jet muscle or armaments, as the Chinese and Russians are presenting in its respective models. The F-35 is about sensor fusion for which little is known, including the US armed services in training, whom are now learning about its "hearing and seeing" everything capability. Then it can, in a split second, manage its own capabilities striking from a long way off. Even if an adversary gets a jump on the F-35 with jet muscle, the F-35 becomes very hard to find or fight. The weight hanging on the wings of any adversary makes it a flying pig with a bull’s eye painted on its body.

The Chinese have achieved a certain amount of stealth using its own systems testing its stealthy capabilities, but it does not have a NASA like technology which the F-35 owns. China's primal engine concepts and stolen technology makes for a poor military advantage. The F-35 is built to adjust to an ever changing battle field no matter what is currently available. The FC-31 won't change the F-35 base architecture, but it will only change some of the F-35's flexible configurations using its inherent capabilities against other new or potential adversary when it emerges, such as the Chinese FC-31 newest offering. 

Remember the F-35's SMD has been at work for twenty years to get to this point and it applauds all others for its efforts as it will quietly grin at the others for having superior speed, agility and arms under wings. It becomes a just dial up a solution and fire kind of aircraft destroying all other incoming fighting antics from its potential adversaries.

Quora Asked Whose Better The 787 or A350?

"Boeing 787 is a much better aircraft at the moment. Airbus A350 was a product of a knee jerk reaction. Time will tell which will succeed however. Both the aircraft are still under development."

And goes into a brief summary of some attributes of both aircraft.

How does the new Airbus A350XWB compare to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner?

Apollo 13 Rescued By The F35

Is the F-35 a "moon shot"? Many years ago as a 17 year old I worked on a ranch in Montana with only having a radio to listen of the world. That summer in 1969 there came the Chappaquiddick incident with the Kennedy's and then a successful moon shot. Man finally discovered there was no air on the moon and its gravity was the real deal, when having only a small token of earth's gravity. Those were the golden years of youth. Riding horseback every day and hitching up the draft mules for another run at the hay fields.

Gordon Ranch Montana. Barn where Maude and Ginny the mules lived. Road where the wolf stood.

Man went to the moon, and a politician swam the swamp saying, "it wasn't me". Americans bit the story line and I went swimming on the lake "next door". It was living in a real wilderness with grizzly bears, cougars, and wolves, even though they weren't supposed to be any wolves in Montana in 1969. They were there and I saw one every morning at 6: AM when hitching up the mules just down the trail from the barn.

Now comes the F-35, a Lockheed version of NASA's "Moon Shot". It cost hundreds of billions and it glitches as often as Apollo 13 did in its Journey around the moon during April 1970. The fighter discovers air and gravity are a real threat to its mission. The F-35 will use a vast array of new terminology like "fusion", "stealth" and "fifth Generation". It will become the foremost defense expenditure flying as a "fifth generation fighter" from this date.

Does the US really need the F-35 to only discover no one else can do it? Does fusion make a difference in the battle? Can the invisibility of stealth hide the facts about the program? All these questions will be answered in the next decade. A lot of money is riding on this "Moon shot". What I believe is not important since what facts are more important. If the F-35 makes America forget about Tom Hanks and Apollo 13, then mission is accomplished and the Universe is back in balance.

Tom Hanks script:

"Jim Lovell: [narrating] Our mission was called "a successful failure," in that we returned safely but never made it to the moon. In the following months, it was determined that a damaged coil built inside the oxygen tank sparked during our cryo stir and caused the explosion that crippled the Odyssey. It was a minor defect that occured two years before I was even named the flight's commander. Fred Haise was going back to the moon on Apollo 18, but his mission was cancelled because of budget cuts; he never flew in space again. Nor did Jack Swigert, who left the astronaut corps and was elected to Congress from the state of Colorado. But he died of cancer before he was able to take office. Ken Mattingly orbited the moon as Command Module Pilot of Apollo 16, and flew the Space Shuttle, having never gotten the measles. Gene Kranz retired as Director of Flight Operations just not long ago. And many other members of Mission Control have gone on to other things, but some are still there. As for me, the seven extraordinary days of Apollo 13 were my last in space. I watched other men walk on the Moon, and return safely, all from the confines of Mission Control and our house in Houston. I sometimes catch myself looking up at the Moon, remembering the changes of fortune in our long voyage, thinking of the thousands of people who worked to bring the three of us home. I look up at the moon and wonder, when will we be going back, and who will that be?"

CFRP Must Have A Turn-over Quotient For Boeing

Without really understanding the CFRP financial model it is plain to every observer, at some time it is necessary to turn over a product into the heap bin. This is necessary for customers to buy more of its kind. This is an important profit engine measuring product turn-over as a quotient. Boeing was instrumental in introducing a mass production model for super-huge plastic products called the 787, 737, and then the 777X family of aircraft. Over half of the 787 is CFRP and the "others" in Boeing's production plan call for CFRP X wings and some Max things. In fact all its Boeing commercial aviation product line will have a certain degree of CFRP in its constructs.

What is in Boeing's plan for turn-over of said products? An aluminum can of soda even goes to the recycle bin. The average land fill garbage dump avoids burying its plastics into the ground while recycling has change the American culture by having two garbage can at the curb. One for biodegradable and one for recycling. This brings to the attention of how long will a plastic bodied airplane last before replacing it in the market place. Hanging on to plastic airplanes longer also effects the financials of a producer such as Boeing. It must replace world fleets in a timely manner in order to make profits. The plastic production plan will reach saturation in the next decade when customers can still flying the CFRP's without fatigued and a need for replacement.

A turn-over quotient becomes an important part of a manufacturer’s forecasting model and the CFRP aircraft has thrown a wrench into the typical inventory modeling coming from the aluminum aircraft. Typically a traditional aircraft will stay with a fleet of a top line commercial carrier under twenty years before replacement. Models can be based on this assumption when calculation ordering and profitability cycles. What if an aircraft last longer like a 787, then what happens to all the modeling and a saturation of commercial aviation buying market. In other words there may be a period of time when buyers don’t need to buy an aircraft because its inventory has a longer shelf-life with its 787’s fleet. "They" can just maintain it indefinitely.

Fortunately for Boeing, improvements, wear of other non-plastic parts such as engines or avionics make it replaceable and outdated for more efficient examples in the market place. No longer can a product depend on wear and tear to retire its type for a new refreshed frame. It must depend on advanced innovations for retiring any plastic airplane within a financial cycle. Waiting for plastic to age is a long, long process. The old aluminum bodied aircraft have a shelf-life and then it goes to South America or Africa for its final gig. 

However, a plastic aircraft will fly as long as parts are maintained large and small. The metal components wear out and replacements are required. Boeing will need innovative new wings, body, and systems before a 787 should be retired. The 787 could fly for fifty years before the next big thing will replace it slowing the turn-over engine for Boeing at the factory level. Hence, a new Boeing division is needed. Having a retrofit and recycling division will be needed for plastic bodied aircraft. Installing new systems, engines and innovations, while making an old 787 body sing is what it needs to do in a factory setting.

A thirty year old 787 body enters the production floor where dis-assemblers remove all pre 2020 systems and parts and replacing it with new and enhanced performance parts and systems at a smaller cost than a new 787. The innovation factor is bolted on the initial frame from the pre 2020 CFRP period. Refitted aircraft will fly more efficiently than its former iteration with all the latest features because the CFRP portion is still good for another 30 years of retrofitted service.

The turnover comes from innovations added values on new production models. The retro fitted example is a continuation of its former self for less money but a high return on the updated example. Long gone are the days of moving an aluminum bodied aircraft to the desert for retirement after metal fatigue takes its toll like an aircraft cancer. The CFRP model can be resurrected. The most critical area is an aircraft's wing area and secondly the air frame. The 777X will have an all plastic wing and its body is engineered for the long haul making this aircraft a prime candidate for aviation's refurbishment program.

The Max series was designed for turning-over, since its relative lower cost of purchase allows the customer to trade-in for a newer model ever dozen or so years as part of it operation's cost of doing business. The 300 million class of aircraft need to have the life span of the Empire State Building such as the 777X family.

In conclusion, keep the plastic out of the dump and send it to the recycle bin when making it a new 787.

500-10: Odds Makers Lose Bet To Boeing

Boeing has reached its 500th 787 since its first delivery back in September of 2011. Boeing has assembled its first 787-10 on the "Charleston Factory Floor". The All Things 787 blog posted pictures and noteworthy statements on both events. (inhale)... Boeing is silent, perhaps waiting for end of year bragging rights, as it may announce more than these two milestones with closing order announcements, and it remains the world's largest aviation producer if that even matters.

Boeing.Photo from AllThings787

Post #1000 Winging It, A Boeing Assignment

It all started back on October 17, 2012 with the following link 1st link ever of Liftdrag.blogspot.com, below a Winging It opening salvo of witticisms with reporting. 

British Airways Announce Start Of First 787 Construction

In a way, it is sad to say a time has come to review and regroup this exercise with a then and now opening and a closing.

Andrew Boydston "Winging It" On A Hike In Montana 2013.

Then:

After suffering a massive heart attack I was pronounced dead at the hospital emergency and then a miracle happened when my body reached room temperature. My heart started again devoid of any medical attention they were five minutes away from bagging my body having only the last electrode attached to my chest removed when a beep occured on the screen. 

The RN in charge was there as was my grieving wife when she said, "He's got a beep let's work with it".  

An observer would note the impossibility as any human aware would. The hospital death report was to be updated with the simple phrase, "Then he lived", after the report documented Mr. Boydston died at 2:30 PM June 1, 2011. The cardiac team descended on my totally blue body with a purpose. My wife who held my foot at the time of life was astounded. She let go and the heart monitor flat lined. 

The RN shouted at her, "Grab his foot you have a miracle touch".

She did and my heart once again started without any medical intervention as reported. However, so minutes had passed between death and restart, as it was determined later, I had annoxic brain injury announced by the fine attending cardiac physician, who is also my Heart Doctor before this condition. 

Then:

He said to my family, "he will not live through the cath lab" for which is necessary for any chance of his survival." 

The process of sending a cath tube with camera up my leg and into my heart would surely kill me! I passed the cath test as they discovered a blockage in one of my twenty year old by-passes. Yes, I am a four-way by-pass recover-er from 1994. The same year I met Dr. Benjamin Carson, who has since become the new USA HUD cabinet leader on PEOTUS, announced on December 5, 2016. 

I went to symposium where he was the key note speaker on heath issues. I was keen to learn after my By-pass surgery in 1994 about healthy life styles.

After making it out of the lab, My Cardiac doctor came to my wife on that same day, and once again told my wife, "I would die as two patients that day had already died after chilling the brain. 

My brain was swelling from the trauma and needed ice packed around the cardio ares and brain area to save me. The Doctor told my wife I would die there was little hope.

I made the 12 hours of treatment and the brain returned to a normal state with what is called "annoxic brain injury”, the prognosis was the high probability of being a vegetable or at best limited mental functions. 

Then: 

After I made it out of the freeze my doctor disappeared from the hospital leaving this message behind to the hospital staff, "I resign and will pursue an education of being an attorney at law".

He made good on his vow and is now at the same hospital where I recovered and is a attorney for its operational functions. That was five years ago when he resigned. He finished law school in three years or less time. I have since started writing this blog during my rehab stint.

My rehab addressed memory problems and some other issues which are now solved. During rehab I couldn't even write especially with a keyboard. The therapist gave me a work assignment. Write about something you love or know about, and everything will fall into place.

Now:

I took her to heart, and started the "Winging It" blog.

To all the thousands of readers that have had the opportunity of reading this blog, thank you.

It’s been my pleasure providing aviation insight with tongue in cheek humor at the same time. I love sarcastic journalism mixed with factual information and observations. My self-imposed work assignment was to write about Boeing and other big things such as the F-35 and the USS Zumwalt Destroyer.

My own heritage goes back to the P-38 Lightening and SR-71 coming from my Uncle's journey going through wars as a fighter pilot, and Lockheed's key engineer flying the "Black Bird" from the ground.

The Boeing project is a culmination of a love for aviation and a need to exercise my wits. It is my hope, I could fuse the data noise from the aviation world as a useful tool, and I believe I have done so. Blog number 1,000 was a goal completed. The year 2017 is still up for grabs for this blog status, as I too become tired from effort but not in spirit.

I love life, and the pursuit of marvelous inventions made during the progress of mankind’s journey. In that Light, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We have much to be thankful for from our progress, and much more work to be done while alleviating the world’s pain with humankind’s suffering.