The 787 Delivery-Order Gap

Recently, it’s been noted that both Airbus and Boeing have dwindling wide body sales in the recent months. Even though on the eve of Farnborough Air Show during July, this could all change or be confirmed as a reality. So in an educational form Winging It has made a bar graph trending towards the exhaustion for the 787 backlog during the next five years. The explanation is below: 

Notice no forecasting line is included, only 2015 and 2016 YTD numbers. It also assumes projected production for each year going into the future at twelve 787 a month, where it may go to fourteen units a month if Boeing can sell more 787 during the next two years.

The Gold standard for the 787 is its backlog in total, where the blue is the number delivered actually in year one and during year two is represented as a YTD total. The grey colored bar is the Gap or shrinking backlog during the five year period. 

Year two is 2016 where only sixteen 787 are ordered and a projected 138 will be delivered after which 2016 is over, one hundred and forty-four 787's will be delivered each year per Boeing guidance. Partial year number during 2016 show sixty-two 787 delivered. 

Since no orders can be estimated going forward through the fifth year (6), Boeing has five years to maintain its backlog. Farnborough will add some 787 orders in 2016 (see bar graph 2), helping rise the orange bar and shrink the Grey for this year. The goal is to minimize the grey impact as found in 2015 or noted as year (1). Boeing can get into year (7) or 2021 with a backlog with no orders until 2021. 

The year 2016 currently is showing few orders to date indicating a slow wide body order year at the halfway point. There are about 10 747 not yet reported and could be added to the show. The 767 freight business is gaining altitude and the 777 remains a mystery at this time. I would expect the 787 will jump up another 30 units at Farnborough making the orange grow and the Grey bar shrinks. The Year 2020 will exhaust the Boeing 787 backlog if another is not taken, but that is not conceivable at all. Boeing will sell the 787 at a slower pace for the next 12 months. 

Once the backlog shrinks with a five year backlog number (BL-12 units a month) it will cause openings for orders during the early part of 2017 as the 787 Backlog falls below five hundred units on order, even if only no orders are booked between now and March 2017. The opportunity factor and airlines five year plans will then merge into orders during the early part of 2017. Any rising fuel prices will proportionally increase wide body demand. Boeing can and will maintain a five year backlog for the 787.

Not Counting The Iran Effect The 737 Orders Are Strong (Update)

Boeing is six months through the order year. Critical is the programs viability for producing both the 737 NG and the 737 Max. An optimal transition pace from the NG to the Max is critical. In essence, Boeing would like a full NG order book through 2020 after which the Max becomes the predominant production floor model in Renton, WA. The Boeing book as of May 2016 has about 1,215 unfilled 737 NG for all types. A sufficient backlog number for keeping the production at current levels. 

Iran Effect via "All Things 787" Link:

“A little more detail came out regarding the proposed commercial aircraft deal between Boeing and Iran.  There are no 787s in the deal but here is the breakout:”

Direct purchase:
4 x 747-8I
15 x 777-9
15 x 777-300ER
6 x 737 NG
40 x 737MAX

Lease:
29 x 737 NG

During 2016, a problem for Boeing would be maintaining an order flow for both the NG and the MAX. So far so good, as it has booked orders in an almost 50/50 split for both the NG and the Max (see tables below). The NG has about 46% of the orders and the Max about 54% of booked 737.

Total NG's ordered Year-To-Date:

Snagged from Boeing Data

Total Max ordered Year-To-Date:

Per Boeing

The total un-adjusted book count is for 265 single aisle aircraft accumulated since January 1, 2016 until June 20, 2016. Production units per month does not equate with orders received and the backlog continues to grow, thus a smooth production output will be achieved when Boeing increases to fifty-two units a month in the near future.

Queen of The Skies Lives Another Day

About 10 747-8F's are on the line for Russian Freight counting $4 Billion at list prices. Volga-Dnepr Group, a subset of AirBridgeCargo, it will complete a contractual offering or proposal with Boeing and will be probably announced at Farnborough during the shows date later this summer. The link for this announcement can be found: 

Boeing said near US$4b deal with Russian firm to save 747

 

The shows date window for announcements could reveal more information during the July 11-16 extravaganza. However, this order revealed this week is unofficial until formal announcements are made, but the deal is real and almost done as reported.

Iran and Boeing Order up 100 Aircraft

The point of this blog is not so much in the order placement, but by in the Boeing types in play. The view on Airbus/Iran order is a strong indicator of what Iran has ordered with Boeing's 100 aircraft order. The devil is always in the details:

Airbus/Iran Order for 118:

Covered in the historic Airbus accord are: 

21 A320ceo  

24 A320neo, 

27 A330ceo, 

18 A330-900neo, 

16 A350-1000s 

12 A380s. 

Total 118 

Now the Boeing probable (predicted) starting order lineup:

20 - 737-800 NG

25 - 737-800 Max

25 -787's 800/900 are fifty-fifty split.

25 - 777's classics and 777X

  5 - 767

Total 100

The prediction is based on Iran's need for immediate replacements and the 767 while meeting that objective as it goes to the head of the delivery line. Iranian pilots are capable handling the both the NG's and the 767 with minimal additional training.

The Max will be a works in progress for the next five years and then Iran will be ready for its emergence as its market absorbs the 737 NG's.

The 787-800 can jump to the head of the line sooner in production than the 787-900's which have a long wait. This allows Iran immediate fleet renewal and favorable pricing. Time and resources from Boeing are made available to Iran from a 787-800 selection. The order book will be a Boeing variety with each having significance for its future fleet growth and comparable with Airbus equipment ordered.

Follow On To Motley Fools 787-10 Question

Motley fool has taken a questioned approach to the viability for the 787-10 program. After selling only 153 of its type during its first offering, Boeing has managed a niche allotment of orders having few follow on orders in the last few years. The well of orders seemed to dry up very fast. The next hope for the 787-10 will come from the "show me phase" of delivery.

An argument can be made via Motley Fools analysis, there are replacement slots for future 787-10 sales coming from the Boeing 777-200 aging fleet. The 787-10 is just as capable as the 777-200 only with a reduced fuel consumption. Rising fuel prices will save the 787-10 future program. Future orders can surprise program managers as oil prices go northward it will press the Boeing order book another 150 of its type ordered during the next decade.

The answer for the 787-10 program comes from several intrinsic conditions. One being the 787 achieves the industry standard for aircraft over the Airbus offering. The 787-10 will gain greater acceptance from this evolving condition as more 787 flood the market place.

The second condition illustrates how effective the 787-10 can be in higher density markets such found in Asia. The 787-10 can haul more passenger for less within a five thousand mile circle of any airport. Customer application of the aircraft will show the market how to make a profit from its place in the industry.

Having a third pillar supports the whole notion for the 787-10. The 777X program compliments the 787-10 as the market leaves the 777-200 behind and while the 787-10 will easily complete the mission already established by the 777 family and it will be a more advanced aircraft as a family member of the 787's already in service. 

That becomes the intrinsic value and inherent attribute for the 787 family. A familiar movie quote of "you complete me", becomes the 787-10 new theme of having value for any airline building its fleet around the Boeing family of aircraft. Having a mixed fleet approach of two manufacturers becomes a fools errand in the market. Having a family plan for any airline is a stronger position towards profitability for that airline's marketing  objectives.

Airlines who rearrange its own inventory towards a mono sourced inventory of aircraft reach a higher efficiency state greater than manipulating the manufacturer through its leverage of manufacturing duality of a purchase. Having faith in your own plan while not serving two manufacturing masters is the optimal condition for airline efficiency. The 787 is all about its efficiency. 

  

Thinning Out The 787 Order Book

Many Boeing customers have already taken a plethora of orders through initial delivery and some have not delivered even one order suggesting they make the list of zero Boeing 787 deliveries to date. Hence they make my deeper list of the "what's up with that", or the list of potential customers from limbo.

They have earned the "Chartreuse Order of the Soft Question Mark". Taking data from "All Things 787" page. Then I have isolated the zero delivery list of Boeing's 787 customers, and from that list, I wonder if they will ever deliver having the questionable color of chartreuse?

The white coded customer are solid and should deliver into the future, where the color becomes a questionable Boeing order, but "should" deliver anyways. Knowing Aeroflot has tried to bail out on Boeing, the order remains on the books. The unidentified customer is surrounded in mystery by its own nature of not knowing the customer by reputation. The Republic of Iraq is a customer in a volatile part of the world where money, peace and war provides a very inconsistent environment and future delivery is not assured by those local conditions. Color coded Unidentified customers remain uncertain by not enough information available to rate a certainty for delivery. 

The fact is the zero delivery list is made up by 787-8 and 787-9 types only since the 787-10 has yet to begin its delivery. Boeing is five years into the delivery program for the 787, and having customers not ever receiving certain types of 787 or none at all, puts them into the spotlight of when first delivery will occur! 

The white coded lines are for customers who already have production aircraft scheduled or other types delivered. Uzbekistan Airways does have scheduled production slots but the few number ordered and its region makes an uncertainty until production actually starts on its two aircraft. They have never received a 787 to date.

El Al could have a questioned delivery time since its a volatile region and conditions do change quickly, but it remains on schedule to receive its first dream-liner. Geopolitical condition do affect several customers not because of an airlines solid reputation, but because of conditions beyond an airlines control, and it may place an order even in jeopardy of its delivery sometime into the future. This is not an exact prediction, but does demonstrate Boeing has some risks at the back of its order book. 

Woe Is Me: Airbus Has a Battery Of A350 Delivery Problems

Airbus is giving Boeing a chance to crank out 12 787 a month over the next several month as A350 production languishes from a battery of supplier problems. The 2016 goal for Airbus was to produce about 50 A350's during 2016. However interior supplier problems have arisen and are being resolved of course over the remainder of the year. The Airbus production outlook has dropped below the 2016 50 unit production outlook where it may only deliver in the low forties. 

Airbus A350s Delays Could Help Boeing 777, 787 Orders

This slows the Airbus A350 units to market. Case in point is the recent Boeing 787-9 delivery to United Airlines, seating 252 (seat guru) flying from San Francisco, CA, to Singapore, after which Singapore Airline is going to receive its first A350-900 about four months later for a competitive flight from Singapore to San Francisco. The Singapore A350-900 will seat 253-257 seats as it has announced.

Airlines notice who is doing what to whom in the market place suggests Boeing has an advantageous backlog over Airbus as it delivers more than twelve 787 a month at times. This opens opportunity for its customers in the market place. An airline can order a 787, and it can expect a firm delivery date for said purchase. Airbus has a mushy production schedule at this time and will promise customers an "about" delivery time for any A350 purchase. 

In fact, the Boeing 787 backlog is less than the Airbus A350 backlog by a comparative number of 733 units in backlog for Boeing and 778 for Airbus. The Boeing build rate will increase pressure for Airbus customers when it decides on what airplane product to choose as production slots tighten up with its customers from the Airbus slower delivery pace. If Airbus delivers twenty-one more A350's during 2016 from this date, it will fall way short of Boeing's 787 production pace of more than seventy-two additional 787's before the end of this year.

Without any additional orders for the two competing Airline framers, the back order for 2016 ending, should be about:

Estimation for market backlog by end of 2016:

Boeing 787’s      665

Airbus A350’s     772

Boeing has about 107 more wide body slots available over Airbus backlog by years end. The potential future sales opportunity may steal customers from Airbus in the second half of the year since Airbus will have a difficult case for when a customer will exactly receive an A350 when ordered. 

Iran and Boeing Dance With A Deal

A Deal has been struck with Iran that it will buy Boeing aircraft in some numbers. It will announce by weeks end what the "Deal" entitles Boeing and Iran in trade. The US federal government has oversight on every aspect of the deal as it closely is monitoring Iran's aspiration in the Mid-East region. The risk for Boeing is immense, if something were to go south with Iran's political aspirations for its region. The deal should address every aspect of the Boeing offering from Single aisle through the wide body family of aircraft.

Expect some Iranian caveats in play as it has probably thrown Boeing ancillary support and Boeing would expect some conditions are met completing the whole "Deal". I would expect Boeing throwing a sweetener into the deal pot from a bulk order point having some conditional aspirations joined within the regions risk issues. However, the measure of the deal may enlighten investors as compared with the prior Airbus purchase from last year. If Boeing exceeds Airbus in units purchased then Boeing can expect a stock market surge, where if Boeing losses ground to Airbus by unit count, investors should respond as Boeing doing a high risk venture with an adversarial country and will mute stock reaction. A generous commitment from Iran suggests its own renewal need out-ways Boeing's risk taking.

The Link to the feature Article for this topic: 

Iran and Boeing Co (BA) Strike Deal

When Do You Know The 787 Has Reached Maturity?

"Boeing reorg streamlines 787 production oversight"

So says the "Seattle Times" and Beverley Wyse, Chef 787 trouble shooter from Charleston, SC. Who has repositioned herself back to Seattle as... President of Shared Services or whatever the heck that is. It sounds like a golden parachute was deployed for her as loose ends have been mopped up for Charleston’s production output.

"Along with a shift in the reporting structure for management of its 787 production sites on opposite coasts, the company announced Beverly Wyse will be president of its Shared Services Group.”

It also signals a bench mark is now in place for reaching 14 787's a month with a joined effort of its Everett, Wa. facility. Beverley is ready to collect a career dividend with a new functionary duty of Boeing's Shared Services Group. "Huh?"  

... "which provides common internal services and systems company wide."

Once more, huh? 

Therefore:

She’ll be replaced by Joan Robinson-Berry, 56, a former McDonnell Douglas executive who has held many supplier management, business and engineering positions at Boeing. Robinson-Berry will have overall responsibility for the South Carolina site, which includes engineering and 737 MAX work, but she won’t be involved in day-to-day 787 Dreamliner operations there.

Dave Carbon, the vice president of 787 operations in South Carolina, will report not to Robinson-Berry but to Mark Jenks, 55, the Everett-based leader of the 787 program.

One last time, Huh?

The music has stopped and everyone is told to please sit down in the nearest chair. All this suggest Boeing is extremely confident in its leadership for a mature program such as the 787. The airplane wars has new generals at the helm and Boeing's battery issue is so last decade. Gone are supply chain problems, gone are strayed rivets and errant shims. The 787 has arrived as a staple Boeing mechanism towards profitability.

100 More Journals to Reach 1000 and I'll Take a Break

It’s been about 2 and 1/2 years and over 900 entries into this blog concerning aviation, Boeing and modern military marvels. I hope to complete the 1000th journal by end of 2016. If not it will be the beginning of 2017 in January. It is the journal's hope to bring interested people to the forefront of Boeing's endeavors in a biased manner. It is also this journal's intent to write about and log opinion and articles about military jets and progress. I have featured the Destroyer class DDG-1000 because it’s a modern marvel. 

The last hundred journal entries will include putting the 787-10 progressions to bed and the Boeing 777X in a complete configuration as it exits through 2016. At about the halfway point for 2016 there are many more talking points to sort through. Up to this point, it has been a challenge to include what would be interesting for this blog/journaling. However, the topics are infinite and are changing the world we live in within the framework of the Boeing products.

The transition of air travel is paced by the 787 as the A350 has too few copies flying to effect the world of travel at this time. Therefore, the 787 is changing the travel culture to anywhere, anytime and with any value for the passenger.