Emirates Stuck On Range Gap Will Order Later

Tim Clark of Emirates has expressed a desire holding off on ordering for his next batch of Wide Body from either Airbus or Boeing. It signals a want of allowing Boeing a showing of the 787-10 in real time capabilities. He has placed the Airbus A350-9 as a 14 hour range hauler and the 787-10 as an 8 hour range hauler. His concern is desert heat and take-off weight, hauling full loads whether they be full passenger loads, freight or both.

Emirates demands an 8 hour range hauler for 95% of its fight routes. Therefore the A350-900 may be wasted capacity 95% of the time. Where the Boeing 787-10 may have a shortfall 5% of the time. The tie breaker is what manufacturer has the best takeoff and landing dynamics while meeting requirements in the desert heat without enabling some kind of Boeing enhancements for its engine thrust configurations. Engine tweaking may cost Emirates more money than it wants to expend having a 787-10 order selection.

Boeing is addressing these concerns through its 787-10 development progressions, and will give Emirates a final solution for its fully configured 787-10 desert bird. It may not do enough for Tim Clark and he will pay the penalty by ordering under utilized A350-900 will a Maximum range of 14 hours. Either way this article could be written for Airbus or Boeing and the tipping point could be having the 777X added for that 5% of the time needing its Long range and freight capacity coming from a 777-8 or 777-9. Clark is running numbers from its computer route generator in figuring out what option would complete the Emirates planning.

A hint is the fact he is willing to wait for the decision before placing the order for about 70 aircraft. Deal making will make the winning order. Timing is in Boeing's corner. If Emirates waits another year before ordering, looking at either  manufacturers backlog or order position is a key element in the deal. In one year Boeing will have shrunk production capacity back log by another 140 787 frames were built and delivered. In one year Airbus will have probably shrunk its production backlog by only forty more A350 frames.

Boeing has the high ground for Emirates at this time when Clark says wait another year before dropping the order into a selected production line. It is really up to each framer what it can do to tie the deal with Emirates at this time. Boeing will bring the price and production slot to Tim Clark for what he needs. If Boeing assures and demonstrates to Tim Clark, the thrust package will exceed performance expectation in the Emirates route environment, then this delay signals an Emirates preference for a Boeing Order.

British Airways Celebrates First 787-9

British Airways turn a page in its illustrious business as a leading aviation company moving people around the world. Its first 787-9 signals a jump start for its competitors that invaded London Heathrow landing in boat loads of 787 aircraft from the four corners of the earth. The 787-9 will level the playing field as:

"It is the first of 22 787-9s the airline is set to receive from Boeing, with the next due to arrive in mid-October and a further two expected by the end of the year."  Quote from: "Breaking Travel News"

Since the news on BA 787-9 arrivals has been out this week for a few days, I'll just say Boeing's lead over Airbus WB A-350 offering, is ever widening through the air. By the time Airbus goes max production its A-350 line within three years, Boeing will have already added 400 hundred more 787, equaling more than 725 flying by end of 2018. It would represent a close number of Boeing 787 flying, as compared with Airbus Current order book of 782 A-350's, and having only five A-350's delivered at this time.

Speaking of Nazi Germany What!!!

Hitlers comrades built a Stealth Jet. Here is the design sketch.

The Nazis Made a Stealth Jet During WWII

The Nazis Made a Stealth Jet During WWII

787 3rd Quarter Has Set

Since October 1, 2015 is today what does the 787 look like after its 92 day journey  through the hot of the summer?  The answer is in the Winging It charts below created for pondering over  and reflection as we move towards Dubai and the fall with the 787 programs.

End Of Month Comment

Defense issues, programs and progress have been a feature in Winging IT during the third quarter 2015. It was not by accident. In fact this blog has incorporated into its composition facets of Navy ships, Fighter jets and Tankers from Boeing. The common denominator comes from military themes and national importance going forward. Boeing is in the midst of this vortex. The Military Industrial Complex is at this century's crossroad from the financial perspective, and having an unsure foreign policy throughout the world it becomes a more critical focus on what our nation needs to build. Military equipment is the tool box of our foreign policy.

It is time to step up with a new feature for the Winging It Blog. It will be Americas Long Range Bomber (LRB) program. The military purchasing program has delayed a decision for two more months from its earlier announcement date by end of September 2015. The players are Boeing-Lockheed and Northrup participants. A shroud of secrecy over the LRB attributes exists for all manufacturers joined in the contract hunt.  Boeing with its famed expertise for plastic flying bodies, Lockheed for its more famous dash of flying excellence through its super-secret spy planes. Northrup-Grumman is no slouch for bomber air-frames either. They have built some serious Bombers just by looking.

Northrup-Grumman B-2 B Stealth Bomber

So here is the Blogs perspective, no matter who wins the bid, it won't have Boeing's auto attention thrown on it. Since this is an almost Boeing exclusive Blog. Winging It, will apply due diligence and enthusiastic commentary for the winner of the Bid Process selection. In other words, I will submit a follow-up on all event milestones regarding the "Life of The American Long Range Bomber", during its development start through the first delivery time frame.

Northrup Super-Secret Bid Is What lies Beneath

The next step is the announcement phase for the LRB winner. I don't care who wins the bid, but I do care if the winner is the best choice for this nation. If Northrup does win, I am excited about this nation. If Boeing-Lockheed wins it had to be better than Northrup submission, otherwise, I would hate to hear of a crony outcome, because all our lives are dependent on the B-52 bomber replacement. The B-52 reaches age 70 before I do, in fact, the first B-52 to fly is older than I am, by four months. The first one flew in April 1952. Now we find ourselves at this point in history. We need a new LRB! All the players are game and can get the job done. Winging It wants to follow this airplane passage no matter the winner of this once-in-a-lifetime event for me. I invite you also to come along for the ride.

Boeing-Lockheed LRB Assumption Is Depicted Below

Dubai November 8-12 Boeing Senses The Positive

The upcoming Dubai airshow is rapidly becoming the end of year match for what airplane framers crave. Most of all, the loose end orders for Boeing, may come together at the meet. There are several 787 orders in play coming from the East and South East from Dubai's position on the globe. Qantas and China could announce seizable 787 orders. The 777X has been order quiet for some time as the big players have already spoken on the 777X program since the 2013 Dubai Air Show. So what is Boeing excited about? That is the tease and the beauty of this airshow. It's the battle field for commercial airplane. It is also a place to show off Apache helicopters and the P-8, Boeing's super duper snooper Navy Air Force tool. I am for the order book war and how it plays because Boeing has a grin going for the show. Don't forget Single Aisle orders could come to the Dubai dance.

The World Changes With One 787 At A Time

Boeing's indomitable spirit marks the business case with JetStar. The announced plan was for Jetstar to take on 11 787 in behalf of the Qantas booking adjustments when they made a Business decision folding its initial 787 order book to a hold ’em position. Is anybody lost at this point? I am but can explain another take on JetStar's windfall for eleven 787 flying in its fleet. They had (past tense) A330 routing its network back in 2013. Then came the order book swap with parent Qantas, who had reached beyond a state of nirvana when ordering back in the day (2005) for over a hundred 787. Two Bloody Mary's later, Jetstar gets sloughed some 787. Qantas goes deep into the walk-in financial freezer. Now Qantas has cleaned-up its business case and are ready to bail out its 787-9's in the Boeing holding tank.  

Jetstar ends A330 operations, moves to all-787 long-haul fleet

Today is another 17,520 hours later than 2013 when Jetstar's first 787-8 loaded was loaded with 334 seats and was delivered. It is also a time when the first "free" (for Qantas) A330 is moved to the parent operation, Qantas. Those same models may also be the first casualties when infusing its first bunch of 787-9's into the mold. Say goodbye to A330 from the Qantas operations deck in five years. 

In summary of a clouded explanation for investors, Qantas has caught up with its business pivot when it realized they were in deep Bull Kah-Kah. Many, many meetings later, Jetstar is now ready to play full efficiency dollars with its eleven 787. Qantas is ready to buy full efficiency 787-9's for its stable of aircraft. The head scratching resulted in the lice being evicted. Questions, anyone?

Next KC-46 Milestone, Money

On October 1st. The military will know if budget consideration are on track for the KC-46 program.

Defense News has offered this September 26, 2015 an observation: "Adding to Boeing’s troubles, service officials warned this month that the Air Force may be forced to break the KC-46 contract if the Pentagon is slapped with a yearlong continuing resolution (CR) at the beginning of the fiscal year. If Congress can not come to a budget agreement by Oct. 1, the Pentagon may be forced to operate under a long-term CR, a stop-gap spending measure that temporarily funds the government at prior year levels."

By the way the KC-46 passed its initial fully loaded system flight test yesterday. This paves the way for testing each system loaded on the KC-46 during the next steps testing progressions, regardless of having a money milestone conquered while the military seeks etching money from congress. 



The process continues, however, with a lower build rate if Congress does not pull its collective head out of the congressional well. There are several military projects hanging on a budget vote of importance featured in Winging It. KC-46, F-35, and the Navy's DDG1000 program. Money not in place for the programs is the game changer. 

CR Waivers... Waiver???? KC-46/F-35

The Air Force is slipping another trick past its vaunted programs. They may seek Continuing Resolution Waivers from the US Congress for two critical programs currently in the breach of development. The KC-46 is going for its first test flight this weekend and the F-35 is deploying its Model A to the Military inventory and several other nations while in the midst of some budget controversy.

Air Force Could Request Continuing Resolution Waivers for Top Programs

NDIA Link

This is great news for the programs, if followed up, and successfully completed. It's my kind of big news on the defense front. However, carving out budget for its programs is a "Hail Mary" throw at the goal post. It also means the Air Force would be going to the mat for the two different frames and pushing the programs forward.

Otherwise, it will be stagnation for programs so corrosive as salt on iron.

What If China Was A Launch Customer For MOM

The proverbial Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft could be China swinging for the fences. Remember when the 757 was vogue now it's still vogue. China came to Boeing this week and got me thinking, why? Somebody must have something up its sleeve. 

The 757 segment is the last untapped Boeing resource for the decade. China has a need for people movers throughout its continent and its surrounding region. What better of a way of suppressing the demand, with becoming the launch customer of an all new clean sheet MOM. It would be a 200-270 seat oval shaped wonder-kin of Boeing. It would establish a 5,000 mile parameter for China. Seven across dual aisle seating, and as airport compliant as the 737 MAX. 

Boeing -Seeking Alpha Graphic

Keep it secret? You Betcha, you'd better keep it secret. Did China order it? No they didn't, but the caveat may have been in the 300 plane order China made with Boeing.  How about a little clause of being the launch customer when Boeing announces the new flying Oval with 777 like wings, 787 like avionics and engines and Max like Aluminum dynamics (Advanced technology wings and laminar flow characteristics installed).

Call it, ??? I'm working on the moniker. Currently it’s down to:

• Continental Drift
• The MOMinator
• NapLiner

I never worked in advertising and it shows.

Seeking Alpha Comment About The MOM