The China 300 Is What's For Dinner

Three hundred aircraft have been agreed upon in Seattle. It's not the 300 sounding the deal but the location that underscores the deal. China came to Seattle with its Nation's President marking the importance for China rather than Boeing going to China asking for some preferred customer status. This is possibly more important than the order coming from China.

Comac, a Chinese production attempt, is not ready for China's emergence into the aviation market. It needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China. But China came to Boeing signing away what it wants and needs from Boeing. That is the most important action taken this year for both partners. The three hundred undefined orders would suggest the bulk as a single aisle MAX or NG's. However it also paves the way for follow-on 787 orders not yet announced. The devil is always in the details.

The "General Deal": #300 is Recommended: <<Click left for best results

Perhaps in giving what China wants, Boeing has already moved past what China wants. A clean way to build Single Aisle NG Aircraft, where Boeing can amp up Max production in Renton Washington. It can now can sell more Max down the road in five years. China can now pass a road block when using Boeing's lifetime achievement expertise for building single aisle, which Comac lacks. It's a win-win for both giants. There should be some 787 orders in there for Chinese sweetening. The undefined nature of the Chinese order suggest much more in the paper work than just 300 airplanes ordered and Boeing manufacturing in China using Chinese staffing requirements.

Boeing has “Maxed” its plant facility in Washington, and Boeing pivots toward the orient slicing off the Airbus hoards wanting more and more from the orient. Make no mistake in thinking Boeing will master the Orient with this move. It has bought significant time, and a placeholder in the largest market coming into the world. China will not stop Comac nor its aspirations as an aircraft player. Boeing knows this all too well. It has its own plans founded in the near future and is depending on having a technological edge in the aviation for many years to come. China is expecting to bridge its technological aviation gap it has surveyed with Boeing over the next ten years. This deal has limits for each and its in the paper-work. 

However, it serves both well during its relevant positions found in the current market place. Both will win on this deal otherwise China wouldn't have come to Seattle.

F-35 Reveal Has Started

US officials: F-35 will outmatch any aircraft in development

Flight Global has started the ball rolling for the F-35 news this month. September 2015 is both a watershed moment for the Boeing KC-46 and the Lockheed F-35. Please link up above for Flight Globals report.

“It’s the finest fighter airplane in the world and nothing compares to it,” Bogdan says. “I’d put this airplane up against any airplane in the world today, tomorrow and for the next 20 or 30 years and we’ll come out ahead.”

Bogdan was responding to a question about whether the F-35 could hold its own against the latest Russian jets, particularly the T-50 that will reportedly enter service in 2016 in a limited capacity."

Boeing's China Visit Is Not A Tea Party

China is visiting Boeing this week. It is not a political junket for China's president, Xi Jinping. He is not interested in Seattle's importation of restaurants in the downtown Seattle area. Xi is looking at what an auto pen will do to Boeing's order book. A Translator from China relates to Xi Jinping, "If you push this button it will sign your name here, here, and here. Viola, China now owns a good chunk of Boeing's production.

The Boeing walk through- meet and greet is underway. The glad handing promenade is a nonstop tour of the American industrial and technological engine, China can't wait for current conditions to turn up for its own aviation juggernaut to catch up. They need aircraft now. Well at least in the next five years.

This week’s Boeing tour is not exploratory, it's more of a validation on the production might Boeing has, and it is giving China more assurance, and yes Boeing can do the Job with China's top leader in the buildings. The "shop stop" signals a deal will be done this year. It will be a single aisle barrage splinting up China's domestic expansion. It will also be a wide body "all-in" stance, since it brings China to the world. Several airlines like China Southern have already committed to Boeing through its testing fleet of 787's, using the 787 in long range market, and it agrees that it is a winner and the foundation for world travel.

The last questions remain for Boeing, "do you want it super-sized with 787-10's or will the Max -8's be your order today?"

China has a huge thirst at this time. It should be a super-sized orders for its national carriers. A China order should be an all-in Max line, complemented by its 787 family of aircraft. If only Winging It had an "Eager Meter" strapped to Xi Jinping's wrist, I could tell you an accurate guess on China's Boeing Aspirations. This is not a tea party, but more of a fortune cookie.

Even Though Five Delivered 787 In September, Boeing makes Guidance

Boeing has delivered by the 21st of September 2015, thirty-one 787 during its third quarter. It has met delivery guidance for the 787 type once again as stated by averaging 10.33 a month during the whole of the third quarter with another nine days remaining in September. Boeing is achieving consecutive quarters meeting guidance since the first of the year.

Even though only five have so far been delivered, in the month of September 2015, it remains solid that it will continue with a few more 787 deliveries before quarter's end, which indicates Boeing continues a surplus in production numbers above its own original guidance. Expectations should bring in about thirty-four 787 during the third quarter as it could add three more 787 during September. It would bring Boeing's monthly delivery on pace, when considering current production energy on the floor and what is in the Boeing supply chain. The EX/IM banking issue in the US is affecting delivery confidence as some customers have Boeing aircraft ready for delivery, but no banking resources available from the EX/IM quandary coming from the US Congress.

Postoperative Debriefing

Everything went well as in text book well. Now it's back to limited scope work out on WI. The veritable progress of aviation’s renaissance is back on track. Since I don't follow news during in shop maintenance, it's a protocol thing, I will spend 24 more hours getting back in the saddle again. Therefore, I will relate to what's going on with Boeing. A ton of things to be exact. I am expecting another order breakthrough announcement in the next 60 days. The Dubai meetings have a pre announced slow sales activity benchmark. However, something in the month of November is percolating up even though it may be a non-Dubai activity announcement. The year's total for the 787 orders will be respectable and interesting I am stilling leaning towards a 100 787 order year by December 31, 2015.

787 production goals are going to exceed guidance. Boeing is coming in for a 2015 big finish. I am anxious on my predictions and how it plays out. Acting as a de facto Boeing executive, my laser pointer says Boeing is going to continue its positive march in forward for market share in spite of the Airbus single aisle flurry it just put together with its key single aisle customers.

Heads-Up Display

I am sorry to announce that I will have some repair and down time! The Doctor and engineers want to install a new operating system near to the center of my heart. It will make me fly a little longer. My sarcasm and what little wit I have left was promised as an intact feature and will remain operational after this system is installed and implemented. I should be down for maybe, up to several weeks according to the KC-46 program heads. After which, I will come out with parachute packed and safety net installed. If it works, I will land back here at Winging It soon. Thanks for reading and watching in advance, over this site while I'm down. Just keep clicking, there is a lot of blogging within Winging It for your further confusion. You will just have to get back to work. There is no other way, but work, it's your job!

Last of its kind before the Jet age. A Montana Teepee burner at Fort Missoula Historical Park. A complete train set and station sits behind me. It was spectacular when they put on a log afterburner show back in the day of the lumber mill. It was a wood burning jet engine that never flew.

First 737 Max In the Renton Assembly Line III

The 737 Max in this Boeing picture is at the start of line III. In front of its nose is open space going to the end of its ground journey. Notice the wing tip feathers. Just for fun count the number of people in this frame. I expanded the photo on screen and found 17 people. I may have missed a few.

KC-46 Will Have An Air Force Problem Reveal Next Week (Updated \ Video)

Not only is the KC-46 on the docket for next week’s military problem reveal, the F-35 often criticized program will be there too. It’s perhaps the most important discussion coming from the US Air Force affecting the US military industrial complex in a long time. The stock market will parse and analyze words spoken.

Aviation junkies must memorize these Air Force names, Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan for the F-35, and Brig. Gen. Duke Richardson for the KC-46. They hold sway over the future of these two critical programs. They have been tasked with oversight and act as the canary in the mine if something falls short of delivering what was promised.

Many doubts are raised about the F-35 meeting and exceeding fourth generation fighters such as the F-16 and other foreign adversarial fighter airframes. 

What is purported on the F-35:

General Mark A Welsh III: AFA conference
Chief Of Staff USAF Washington, DC

Counters these arguments listed below and makes the F-35 case during the video.
Check The 36:12 minute mark on video about the F-35 Program Status.

Standard complaints offered on the sideline:

• Its falls short to the F-16 in air to air close combat.
• It has had encountered too many program faults
• It will not have close combat air superiority over the latest generation foreign fighters
• It compromised its air frame, giving up performance for both STOVL and Carrier based fighter configuration for the Navy and Marines. One concept does not always fit all.
• Concurrency is a Military STD on its building complex. 

This now brings us to the Boeing KC-46 Air Force Report Card. The fixed cost has been an impediment to Boeing trial and error approach during development, with a follow-on air tanker from a commercial frame. Its error margin is already gone when installing critical systems. When delivery time is a key element for the military, it becomes a key cost to the supplier (Boeing) to make it on time.

• The KC-46 needs and error free flight test period
• The Air Force Should Tell Us straight Up Were The KC now stands
• Boeing can deliver and succeed on this key project but it will take an investor hit because of it.

The Air Force Presentation next week will sway the Boeing stock market one way or another, when it comes to the KC-46 project. Lockheed's F-35 won't have a final answer until it goes to combat someday. However, early reports indicate the Marines have a winner. It is not known how well the F-35 super-secret internals will buy back many advantages in aerial combat, or how it can be used as an interface within the total combat arena assisting old technology.

Its multi-systems and pilot helmet controls can help fourth generation fighters with what they lack in the combat arena. The F-35's stealth gives it a longbow advantage for incoming fighters 100 miles out. Close combat may not be its specialty, but its added combat values nullify the need for close combat encounters. The Air Force must learn how to leverage the F-35 technology into air superiority, and that may take hands-on and brains-on time in the cockpit. The military has to catch up to this technology and not look back at the old paradigm of the F-16 as the role model. This is a different animal.

Latest News: 9/15/2016

AFA 2015: KC-46 first flight back on schedule

Budget Gridlock Looms Over AFA  Next weeks news added.

GE-9X Makes A Break Through With Its CMC

The 777X9 needs an engine. Boeing has chosen GE for the honors for that task. They have named it the GE9X reflecting a developmental label for the 7779X program. What is so different with this engine over the 777-300ER GE90 engine is that it will be a lighter, smaller by inches and made with stuff GE has been working on for ten years. The material is called CMC or a carbon ceramic material that is lighter thinner and heat resistant in a super-hot environment. This means, a more efficient Jet engine developing 102,000 pounds of thrust compared with 115,000 pounds of thrust with the 777-300ER. Engine Diameter will be 133.5 inches across. Sixteen blades are needed for the main fan. It will have a 10% fuel efficiency over prior models of the GE90 configured engines. A 5% improved specific fuel consumption (SFC) versus any twin-aisle engine at service entry.

Regarding the CMC testing just reported. GE has advanced its CMC materials used for fan blades and internal parts while subjecting it in duration testing and gaining such positive results it will proceed forward with those parts in the upcoming flying tests for the GE9X engine on the 747 test bed. The remark coming out of duration parts testing, indicated the materials retained a pristine composition after 2,800 hours of undergoing the duress of heat and pressures exceeding engine operational conditions. Ten years of research for the CMC material has paid off for GE. It is proceeding with making a better engine for the 777X9 program, and may spin-off more advances for the 787 program after it successfully testing out it engine building propositions for the 777-X9 program.

B of A analyst Says: A Gap Filler Is A Good Place For Boeing Replacing Its 757

Bank of America analyst have recommended Boeing build the consummate tweener. A 757 2.0 version. Boeing could in one sweep of the design board stop all the nonsense found in the A-320 Neo program. A new class of Boeing with the possibility of 1,000 of its type in sales could be coming.

Seeking Alpha has Reported:

Boeing gets support for new mid-range jetliner from BofA analysts

Boeing has said it is considering a new jet that would fit a niche between its single-aisle 737 and long-range 787 Dreamliner, and the BofA analysts find "a strong case" for Boeing to go ahead, estimating a market for ~2,700 planes from airlines to replace older planes or swap in for inefficient, long-range jets that they are currently using for medium-range flights.

However, the analysts say Boeing's ability to recover its cost of capital on the program would depend on executing a more cost effective production method than the 787, which has struggled with high production costs building the mostly carbon-fiber composite jet.