A Few Days Off Brings Us To : The F-35

"Today there are 126 F-35s of various models in service (plus 19 test aircraft); by the end of 2019, that will skyrocket to 493. “When we have those 493 airplanes out in the field in 2019, guess how many of them will be in what I consider to be the right configuration?” Bogdan asked the ComDef conference here. “Not. A. One. Every one of the airplanes coming off the production line today and coming off the production line for the next two and a half years, plus all the airplanes we’ve built already, will need some form of modification to get them up to the full capability that we promised the warfighter. That is a massive undertaking..”

So says,  Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan, program executive officer (PEO) for the F-35.
This is from an intensive series of articles supplied by"Breaking Defense".

Currently exciting news comes from Italy: Via Defense News

F-35 Soars Over Italy, First Time Outside the US

In summary Italian interest have built or should say assembled its first F-35 at an airport plant, and rolled it out the door. It flew off for an hour and twenty-two minutes. How about that, it's a F-35 project milestone?

Now comes the entanglement of production the F-35 finds itself in, through the concept called "concurrency". They were right starting the word with "Con", as in con job. The above Bogdan quote best describes concurrency at its peak. "Not A One", is like any other F-35. Bits and pieces litter the production trail, marking a project falling apart along the production way. The mitigation of the problem is found with block production runs, hoping containment stays within each block. However, containment of production progress, within a concurrent plan allows seepage flowing into any block when having daily updates applied to anyone's model on-the-line!

Sad Sack is defending America from the production floor. Before "anyone" buys the next bomb shelter, there is some hope for future military programs. Concurrency is a buzzword waiting for the next military industrial complex idea. It will be retired by a new conceptual phrase, perhaps, "Next Fighter Up". The sum of all changes has to reach a culmination where all fighters are consistent within not a block but through entire division of military applications and concept. 

Starting with one frame, and applying that frame to three different applications is a nightmare. The Air Force, Marine, and Navy is a concurrent design flaw concept. The Marines affect both the Navy and Air Force potential capability. The Marine design must adapt a central fan for STOVL operations. The Carrier version is beefed-up and heavier than the Air Force version. The Air Force version is limited on speed and agility of what an advanced fighter could have been if it had not been penalized by the Navy and Marine versions in base designs. The Concurrent Three Musketeer sentiments flows with "A One for all and all for one," mess.

The limitations arrive with having flying characteristics marginally different than the F-16. There are faster more nimble fighters available as adversaries. However, they lack the electronic sophistications of the F-35 which gives them "internal" air superiority, and a very long reach with some invisibility.

This brings us to the biggest problem, internal computer codes that have to have so many updates. The code corrections are awaiting its implementation while in testing mode, assuring program stability and validation. The "main edge" over other adversarial aircraft is scattered all over the concurrent production floor within each "Block model" having a different "Block code version", installed controlling its secret military platforms. It is reaching its final giant Cluster F*** and then it will fly concurrently with Block 11, as its role model.

What the military and Lockheed are now doing for these dismal concurrent conditions is sweeping up the technological crumbs that were swept off the table after each "Block Release".

What Came First A Wing Or a Bird?

Answer: The Wing Plant



Boeing Building Business is alive and well in Everett. This Spring time photo shows the airplane will be built. The wing will roll out on a specialized carrier frame rolling into the 777 manufacturing site straight into the production building.

 

Note the orange or yellow colors of cranes in the background (center back of roof line). This is the wing plant under construction just behind the World's largest building. The Wing center remains dwarfed by the main show in the front of this photo.

It will receive the title of World's Largest Twin Engine Passenger Jet. It will be built in the World's Largest Building next to the Word's Largest Wing Manufacturing Facility. Records are made, to be broken. Today is Boeing's day as it embarks on a fanciful journey of airplane building, because it can. There is no glory in accomplishing what it can do anyways, as Airbus would have you believe. There is only glory in doing what no one else can do. Build planes that are needed for the existing market.              

Boeing Goes For Extra Space With Its Starliner

Space the final frontier, is Boeing's new Florida gig. They will build its Starliner in Florida on-site near the launch cape. They have to build it because there already a rendering of the spacecraft.



Its really big tub taking on an Apollo motif. What it can carry is a full space station crew and large amounts of space station type cargo. It's a sole source project for the ISS. Boeing with this sketch is not going to Mars or around the Moon. It could carry and plant small satellites into orbit during a crew change out run to the ISS while  orbiting.  The Starliner is not breaching new technology in its approach but enhance the old technology by making it bigger, more durable and well suited for its mission. Making the US space program relevant with the ISS mission.

The importance of this demonstration is for American industry, which can once again re-enter the space age filling a mission gap existing since the space shuttle was mothballed by NASA. It also gives another domestic industry a step into the space age, where it could later design follow-on long range capsules for a Mars trip. Boeing will have gained a real bench mark experience through this Starliner project that could lead to building a Mars capsule, and for its return with a same unit from Mars.

Boeing Builds Worlds Largest Airplane (errrh Twin Engine)

Every headline I take with a grain of salt as misleading. The recent Headline oft repeated Goes like this:

Boeing 777-9X: World's Biggest Jet 

This example of a headline is balderdash in the back pasture. So let's get this straight from the get go, we are talking "Twin Engine People", quoted from Yosemite Sam's cartoon series. The engines are bigger with two identical cans hung from the enormous wing which extend 235 feet in unflappable symmetry. Did you know the engine cowling leading edge will have Laminar Flow Technology, patented by Boeing and shared with GE. For those who don't care, I'll explain it anyways because you stumbled onto Winging It. Start with dimples on golf balls which make 'em fly further on the driving range with your new monster headed driver making you into an Arnold Palmer. Go to the aircraft body maker and lifting surface gurus and they say we've done it and patented it already. Boeing put edges on the Horizontal and Vertical leading edges and have done some golf-ball like tricking on its 787-9's and next the 787-10 model. 

They call it the Laminar Flow Technology Prominently Installed Somewhere Serious (LFT-PISS). Remember the old Spoilers on some race cars in the 70's with those awful looking wings welded, bolted, or glued on the back of a car. They called those "Spoilers". The really spoiled the looks of a race car on a short track. Laminar flow is now added to the Jet engine opening reducing drag, and you can't even really see it unless you are a maintenance guy with a scrub brush looking for bug splotches on certain surfaces. Digress I must, because people are expecting something World's Largest to happen, but it really bugs me about any headline pimping and bugs have to be accounted for in such an airplane as Boeing is building. They are going from a fly paper airplane to fly swatter sized Airbus smasher with its new 777X build. When they start making parts it's no longer a fly-paper airplane, it will include the LiftnPiss system.

Moving forward with intellectual commentary is the sole source of any humor. Boeing has Sole Sourced the 77X trump card thrown down on the industry. Everyone in the industry is blinking feverishly at the concept. You don't build a Wing Plant in Everett Washington state unless you are holding nothing but Aces as Trump cards in the game of Airplane poker. Say Goodbye A-350-1000 and say good-bye, dare I say, A350-900, as Boeing backhands them with a better product. Wide Body buyers are stunned. They bought Airbus already, hook line and sinker. Fleet renewal just took on a new definition from the 777X. It will replace the following aircraft in the next order round for all customers. The 747, A350-1000, A350-900, and A380 as the 777X will fit into nearly all high density airports.

Boeing has maximize the Twin Engine Concept (TEC). It’s the final pin Boeing has inserted into the Airbus Voodoo doll, ouch.  TEC is here to stay and four engines is so 1950's for both big and small types. 

Late 1950's Boeing 707

Oshkosh Defense Replaces Hummer: Primer

For those of you living under a rock. The Hummer productions is no more. China bought the mold. However, before going gonzo crazy over its demise. Stop drop and roll infantry style. The Oshkosh defense has a suite of combat vehicles starting with the L-ATV. It's not your kids four wheeling ATV. It looks more like a BLM fire truck.

The infantry will have to develop new combat tactics for its new equipment. Interurban or on a rocky ridge, the L-ATV is imposing compared with your own recreational ATV, where is was possibly made in China.

Oshkosh no longer is about aviation and shows, it's about defending our country.

Oshkosh L-ATV Main View

The Silver Bullet Kills Four Engine Monsters

Recently, Boeing  has closed its 777X design phase, so it can proceed with its build of the first of its type. The 777X will be well suited to fit inside of all 747-8 slots at the jet way. It will carry similar passenger groupings within high density market demand, with over 400 passengers. The 747-8i typically carries under 400 passengers on the majority of its routes. The 777-9X could become an Air Force One for some nation's security plans its so large and can fly so far.

Wikipedia Chart

In 2013 Boeing knew the handwriting on the wall for its 747-8 program. It was spiraling downward and would have remnant aircraft orders by 2020. Currently it is taking a production step downward where it will go to about one a month. The 747-8F program received a note from management that four were cancelled by Japan Airlines due to consideration for its own needs for freight traffic. The freight segment is Boeing's most robust order engine for the 747.

Boeing Photo

The A-380 has finally stagnated its order book as it stalled order expansion by 2013  as well. Airports can't reconfigure fast enough to except new numbers for its type. A Boeing observation made before the first A-380 was ever delivered. The aircraft had its own market constraint. It was set up for failure from the start. However, Airbus made bank on promoting its ego with the World's largest passenger airplane for the last decade.  The stalled Airbus order book for the A-380 has no airport support.

This brings us to the 777-9X where in a few years since its announcement in 2013, it has again made  year 2013 stick out, where over 300 hundred of the 777X types has been ordered, matching the venerable A-380 with its 10 year order book in only two years. Only fifty -Five A-380 have been ordered since 2013.

Wikipedia Chart

The 400 million dollar aircraft has set its production anchor with a design freeze and parts making has started for the first of many aircraft rolling forward. Its wing plant is a shell, but rapidly reaching its construction climax. The program progress has reported its progress wheel is turning "oh so slowly, but proceeding oh so finely".

Tim Clark CEO Emirates

Why I bought the 777X

Boeing Updates Its Order Book

Yikes, on Labor Day its time to relax and not cancel 4-747-8's off the Order Books. Go to the self explaining Order Book at Boeing .com

The KC-46 Will Shadow Boeing Stock Investments

The KC-46, "Pegasus Project" has had its ups and downs and delays. Its fixed cost lid directly affects the Boeing stock report. The trouble with the KC-46 project influences Boeing stock can only change when its military outliers change within nominal forces. The long term stock outlook is only an opinion tied with the roller coaster approach of the KC-46 status. In time: as mistakes, glitches and money are retired on the project, Boeing stock should shape up as a stable investment considering those short term indices. The long term is predicated on long term outcomes for the KC-46 project.

 

Boeing is at a critical point for the project. What is at stake is its reputation and its relationship with military programs like the LRB (Long Range Bomber). There is some residual risk spinoff downward if the project duds out. Or does not meet the military's expectation.

Can The KC-46 Prove Detrimental To Boeing Co (BA)?

The above link gives the "Bidness" perspective on the KC-46 project.

"Following the earnings release, analysts had pointed out that the program could prove to be an impediment to growth for Boeing’s top and bottom line, if there is another delay in the program. The company had lowered its full-year 2015 (FY15) earnings estimate from $8.20–8.40, to $7.70–7.90 to reflect the $0.77 per share impact of the charge realized during the quarter."

"While the program could adversely affect the company’s relation with the Department of Defense, we believe that other programs, such as the P-8A surveillance aircraft, would keep the relationship between the two entities strong. The company was reported to have received a contract worth $1.49 billion for the delivery of 13 more of the P-8A aircraft on August 27, showing high demand for the offering from Boeing’s DSS segment."

I had referred to  Boeing's defense posture with its DOD's P-8A success as an example Boeing can deliver on a Military timeline as Winging It had mentioned in an earlier blog. Boeing's reassurance for KC-46 project is often stated by Boeing talking heads. Boeing has just announced another delay after those reassurances from mistakes made with the refueling systems. Thus rattling investor confidence at this time. 

The time is a speck on the project which is soon to be updated. The real concern about time is losing another KC-46 year due to setbacks at this juncture. That is becoming less likely each day. When the first KC-Pegasus successfully flies fully loaded in an operational status this fall, it is only two months late in the the over-all picture. Then Boeing will exhale, and investors will clamor once again with Boeing's military outlier against the company as a whole. It's wait and see time for Boeing and the Pegasus. A swing vote by investors will occur by year's end after its first fully operational flight.

A CAPA Report Must Read

CAPA:   has come out specifically with a snapshot of the Big Three fleet status and its purchasing intent. It demonstrates an active competition of the world's big two airplane manufacturers.  Both Boring and Airbus has set anchors in the American market. Please link up with CAPA: and see the subtle shifts in its competitive fleet representations within the big three, and ferret out Airline strategy by its future intent for placing orders on aircraft.

Boeing 787 Numbers Dogs Competitors

It is time for the end of August 2015, numbers. Boeing has hit its stride on the 787 family of aircraft. It has four months remaining in 2015 to exceed 2014 production. So far the 90 delivered is only 24 units away from the 2014 benchmark of 114 787 delivered during 2014. Boeing will easily exceed that number by ten units with an expected total of 124, 787 delivered during 2015.

The 90 day moving average is a clean way at looking at productivity sustainability over the ebb and flow of production surging or stoppage. This view indicates a consistent measure for Boeing's guidance over each of its twelve monthly views framing 90 day averages. Did Boeing deliver 10 a month as expected? The short answer is yes. In fact Boeing delivered 14, 787 during August beating guidance by four while averaging 12 a month over 90 days. It beat its own guidance by 2 a month over this seasonal average during the summer.

The grand scheme of Boeing things are needed a quick view. Keeping an eye on the Boeing production Juggernaut is an important stock issue it will tell you the path to its dominance goes unabated.

Once again by years end it is most likely it will exceed the 2014 numbers set at 114, by going solidly north of 124 units delivered in 2015.

The by model pace has quicken for the 787-9 as they are rapidly becoming the feature 787 type for 2015 as they are half of the 787 delivered this year and should eclipse the 787-8 for the year during 2015 as "delivered type of the year".

The 787 egress flow is demonstrated by 48, 787 available from production, or are currently flowing through the floor. Ten units counted are "terrible teens" or production units awaiting its customers coming from a Change Incorporation and rework status. Thirty-eight units are in WIP status which should remain constant from month to month as units are loaded into production and others are delivered.