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Friday, September 4, 2015

Oshkosh Defense Replaces Hummer: Primer

For those of you living under a rock. The Hummer productions is no more. China bought the mold. However, before going gonzo crazy over its demise. Stop drop and roll infantry style. The Oshkosh defense has a suite of combat vehicles starting with the L-ATV. It's not your kids four wheeling ATV. It looks more like a BLM fire truck.



The infantry will have to develop new combat tactics for its new equipment. Interurban or on a rocky ridge, the L-ATV is imposing compared with your own recreational ATV, where is was possibly made in China.

Oshkosh no longer is about aviation and shows, it's about defending our country.

Oshkosh L-ATV Main View

The Silver Bullet Kills Four Engine Monsters

Recently, Boeing  has closed its 777X design phase, so it can proceed with its build of the first of its type. The 777X will be well suited to fit inside of all 747-8 slots at the jet way. It will carry similar passenger groupings within high density market demand, with over 400 passengers. The 747-8i typically carries under 400 passengers on the majority of its routes. The 777-9X could become an Air Force One for some nation's security plans its so large and can fly so far.
Wikipedia Chart


In 2013 Boeing knew the handwriting on the wall for its 747-8 program. It was spiraling downward and would have remnant aircraft orders by 2020. Currently it is taking a production step downward where it will go to about one a month. The 747-8F program received a note from management that four were cancelled by Japan Airlines due to consideration for its own needs for freight traffic. The freight segment is Boeing's most robust order engine for the 747.

The 777-9X will seat at least 400 passengers with a superwide cabin with larger, higher windows when it begins production in 2017.
Boeing Photo

The A-380 has finally stagnated its order book as it stalled order expansion by 2013  as well. Airports can't reconfigure fast enough to except new numbers for its type. A Boeing observation made before the first A-380 was ever delivered. The aircraft had its own market constraint. It was set up for failure from the start. However, Airbus made bank on promoting its ego with the World's largest passenger airplane for the last decade.  The stalled Airbus order book for the A-380 has no airport support.

This brings us to the 777-9X where in a few years since its announcement in 2013, it has again made  year 2013 stick out, where over 300 hundred of the 777X types has been ordered, matching the venerable A-380 with its 10 year order book in only two years. Only fifty -Five A-380 have been ordered since 2013.

Wikipedia Chart

The 400 million dollar aircraft has set its production anchor with a design freeze and parts making has started for the first of many aircraft rolling forward. Its wing plant is a shell, but rapidly reaching its construction climax. The program progress has reported its progress wheel is turning "oh so slowly, but proceeding oh so finely".
Tim Clark CEO Emirates
Why I bought the 777X


Thursday, September 3, 2015

Boeing Updates Its Order Book

Yikes, on Labor Day its time to relax and not cancel 4-747-8's off the Order Books. Go to the self explaining Order Book at Boeing .com

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

The KC-46 Will Shadow Boeing Stock Investments

The KC-46, "Pegasus Project" has had its ups and downs and delays. Its fixed cost lid directly affects the Boeing stock report. The trouble with the KC-46 project influences Boeing stock can only change when its military outliers change within nominal forces. The long term stock outlook is only an opinion tied with the roller coaster approach of the KC-46 status. In time: as mistakes, glitches and money are retired on the project, Boeing stock should shape up as a stable investment considering those short term indices. The long term is predicated on long term outcomes for the KC-46 project.

Image result for Pegasus KC-46 

Boeing is at a critical point for the project. What is at stake is its reputation and its relationship with military programs like the LRB (Long Range Bomber). There is some residual risk spinoff downward if the project duds out. Or does not meet the military's expectation.


The above link gives the "Bidness" perspective on the KC-46 project.

"Following the earnings release, analysts had pointed out that the program could prove to be an impediment to growth for Boeing’s top and bottom line, if there is another delay in the program. The company had lowered its full-year 2015 (FY15) earnings estimate from $8.20–8.40, to $7.70–7.90 to reflect the $0.77 per share impact of the charge realized during the quarter."

"While the program could adversely affect the company’s relation with the Department of Defense, we believe that other programs, such as the P-8A surveillance aircraft, would keep the relationship between the two entities strong. The company was reported to have received a contract worth $1.49 billion for the delivery of 13 more of the P-8A aircraft on August 27, showing high demand for the offering from Boeing’s DSS segment."

I had referred to  Boeing's defense posture with its DOD's P-8A success as an example Boeing can deliver on a Military timeline as Winging It had mentioned in an earlier blog. Boeing's reassurance for KC-46 project is often stated by Boeing talking heads. Boeing has just announced another delay after those reassurances from mistakes made with the refueling systems. Thus rattling investor confidence at this time. 

The time is a speck on the project which is soon to be updated. The real concern about time is losing another KC-46 year due to setbacks at this juncture. That is becoming less likely each day. When the first KC-Pegasus successfully flies fully loaded in an operational status this fall, it is only two months late in the the over-all picture. Then Boeing will exhale, and investors will clamor once again with Boeing's military outlier against the company as a whole. It's wait and see time for Boeing and the Pegasus. A swing vote by investors will occur by year's end after its first fully operational flight.


A CAPA Report Must Read

CAPA:   has come out specifically with a snapshot of the Big Three fleet status and its purchasing intent. It demonstrates an active competition of the world's big two airplane manufacturers.  Both Boring and Airbus has set anchors in the American market. Please link up with CAPA: and see the subtle shifts in its competitive fleet representations within the big three, and ferret out Airline strategy by its future intent for placing orders on aircraft.

Monday, August 31, 2015

Boeing 787 Numbers Dogs Competitors

It is time for the end of August 2015, numbers. Boeing has hit its stride on the 787 family of aircraft. It has four months remaining in 2015 to exceed 2014 production. So far the 90 delivered is only 24 units away from the 2014 benchmark of 114 787 delivered during 2014. Boeing will easily exceed that number by ten units with an expected total of 124, 787 delivered during 2015.




The 90 day moving average is a clean way at looking at productivity sustainability over the ebb and flow of production surging or stoppage. This view indicates a consistent measure for Boeing's guidance over each of its twelve monthly views framing 90 day averages. Did Boeing deliver 10 a month as expected? The short answer is yes. In fact Boeing delivered 14, 787 during August beating guidance by four while averaging 12 a month over 90 days. It beat its own guidance by 2 a month over this seasonal average during the summer.


The grand scheme of Boeing things are needed a quick view. Keeping an eye on the Boeing production Juggernaut is an important stock issue it will tell you the path to its dominance goes unabated.


Once again by years end it is most likely it will exceed the 2014 numbers set at 114, by going solidly north of 124 units delivered in 2015.

The by model pace has quicken for the 787-9 as they are rapidly becoming the feature 787 type for 2015 as they are half of the 787 delivered this year and should eclipse the 787-8 for the year during 2015 as "delivered type of the year".



The 787 egress flow is demonstrated by 48, 787 available from production, or are currently flowing through the floor. Ten units counted are "terrible teens" or production units awaiting its customers coming from a Change Incorporation and rework status. Thirty-eight units are in WIP status which should remain constant from month to month as units are loaded into production and others are delivered.


Sunday, August 30, 2015

The 787-9 has 344 Seats Whereof 35 In Premium And 309 In Economy

Norwegian Air becomes the Canary in the 787 Market Place. The above headline is the closing remark regarding Norwegian Airlines latest acquisition of the 787 family of aircraft, adding two more 787-9's to its portfolio. The airline is leasing from its holding company, Arctic Aviation Assets.

The Canary reference considers a thriving environment for the 787 growth. When there is a repeat sales opportunity taken by initial customers for this airline on the micro scale. It bodes well for the 787's future. Norwegian is that Canary in a vicious marketing environment.

“In order to make our long-haul operation even more competitive, we are dependent on more brand new cost-efficient aircraft. Our long-haul routes have been very popular and I´m very satisfied to have secured more Dreamliners. This will enable us to launch even more routes to exiting destinations all over the world. This is a fantastic airplane with high passenger comfort, long range and low fuel burn,” said Norwegian’s CEO Bjørn Kjos.

Knowing the limits of Norway's travel foot print, it becomes more critical for any region's airplane selection as the right decision. They pioneered with the 787-8 having 291 seats. Now they go long with fifty-three more seats within its business plans. A sure sign that a well measured decision was made at the onset of the original purchase for 787-8's. Norway is not a high density location in the market place, yet Norwegian Air has made a high density yield for its aircraft based on efficiency and pricing relative to its regional competitors. The experience will urge competitors like Ryan Air to deepen its WB plans on the same lines as Norwegian has taken.

Spain, England and Italy have the same markings for profit on them as does Norway. The model has been established and proven, the base country can pull in revenue to itself with the long legs of the Dreamliner. 

Norwegian Air took the lead with its initial fleet order and now will expand to 19 Dreamliners by 2019. Complementing its Dreamliner business model with future dash-9's. One example noted, Scoot, which is emulating Norwegian Air with its twenty ordered 787's. They went with ten 787-8's and ten 787-9's.

JetStar flushed its A-330 to parent company Qantas, while replacing its "Bus" for 14, 787-8, with 334 seats. Now Qantas has affirmed eight 787-9's out of its option basket. The trend is becoming clearer the 787 business model makes a winner out of the pack of also ran's, found common in the market place.

TUI jumped in early with its 787 fleet delivered, alarming competitors at the Jet way.  The 787 success model is consistent across the market place. Only one airline cannot seem to wrap its arms around the 787, Air India. It seems to have not been able to step up to the technology level encountering countless problems. Even with Boeing lending substantial resources to its operations, Air India wants to assign blame rather than resolve its issues.

The Dreamliner has proven its value for many airlines after four years of operation, and now the re-order cycle has begun through successful application of the base 787 business model using the frame as the means for future success. Watch the demonstration of Norwegian Air 787 fleet compete successfully turning the European region towards these 787 types.


Saturday, August 29, 2015

New Bomber Clean Sheet Not Related To KC-46 Problems

The Wall street Journal 24/7 suggest the Boeing company maybe putting itself at a disadvantage for obtaining an procurement award for the US Air Force's new bomber proposal. First any clean sheet offering cannot be tied to a fix cost project performance such as the KC-46 Pegasus tanker has gone through with Boeing. It would be foolish to think having the first time fixed cost project problems would naturally roll into a clean sheet approach, because of a company's performance from doing business within its first time attempt of using an existing commercial aircraft frame converted into a military application at a fixed cost.


Boeing should not be penalized on its first time attempt for its KC-46 tanker when considering a bomber bid. Procurement should not use it as an example what the military can expect from Boeing for its clean sheet designs. The military has not been especially kind to Boeing when it cancelled Boeing's offering, during the F-35 competition where the Military went with its current troubled model, which is just now reaching entry into military service from Lockheed. Not only has Boeing delivered 737 types for Navy AWACS missions without any controversy, it has made good with the KC-46 in getting it where it is today, while spending its own coin.
WS 24/7:

"And while this is all going on, the Pentagon is expected to decide, perhaps as soon as next month, on the winner of a contract to build the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B), often called the B-3. Boeing and partner Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) are teamed against a competing bid from Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC).

The B-3 procurement is expected to fall in a range of 80 to 100 planes at about $500 million per plane, and the contract is the last of three new airplane deals the Pentagon has included in its budget plans. The Joint Strike Fighter, or F-35, was awarded to Lockheed in 2001, and planes are being delivered in small quantities for testing and evaluation now. The KC-46A contract is valued at around $50 billion for 179 planes, not including long-term maintenance and parts deals."
lockheed-boeing-long-range-strike-bomber


Boeing Photo For B-3  21 Bid Via WS 24/7

The error pentagon thinkers made on the F-35 project is making an aircraft compliant for all three aviation services.  The F-35 should have been a fighter for both the Navy and Air Force and not a jump jet for the Marines. The bid should have been divided in a modified approach. The deck aircraft and land based fighter could have been designed without sacrificing advances for dog fighting, range and speed. The Marine copy should have been awarded to Boeing as a stand-alone as an advanced Marine VTOL fighter. Both would have been long deployed and have its optimizations going beyond any adversaries currently flying in the air. However, the all for one and one for all approach reached a common denominator of reduced speed and aerial abilities. The F-16 has shown its chops against the F-35 as having an edge under several conditions. Not an acceptable outcome.

NOC LRS-B concept

Northrup Photo For B-3 21 Bid Via WS 24/7



The Boeing Marine F-32 would have been brilliant aircraft with top speeds of up to 1,200 nm/hr. The same speed all three types now must live with in the one-for-all concept. The Navy and Air Force now must match against other aircraft through superior dynamics by using its advanced systems and stealth. However, at some point those advantages will become overcome by adversarial developments.

The military achieved a "War Fighter Nullification" when reaching a common denominator consistent to each of its A-B-C mission scopes for its fifth generation War Fighter types. Short stubby wings, a heavy enough frame for carrier reinforced carrier landings, and a size enhancing body for receiving VTOL applications, has taken the F-35 for having a smaller edge over other fourth Gen fighters.

This brings us to the KC-46 project where the Air Force short cuts the concept using the 767 frame, and then Boeing made mistakes in configuring systems within the frame for tanker duty. Those mistakes have been solved, and does not reflect on Boeing's ability to complete the task. My own belief is the military will award the next bomber to Northrup, as it has kept both Lockheed and Boeing going with prior awards, and it does not want to loose an industrial complex due to  starving it from winning procurement awards.

That consideration does not always bring the military the best concept forward. However they encourage the winner to enlist "others" as subcontractors for the project once the award is made. I have no idea what the big three have for proposals for this military bomber, called the B-3 21. 

What interest me is Boeing's capability for plastic wings and body. The stealth factor is crucial, if considering a 500 million dollar, it becomes a war time target for any adversary. 

The bomber must be safe, so it never will crash while under operation of its crew. It must not be lost on a mission. Its a capital aircraft worth its weight in Gold.

Therefore, this bid award is one of the most careful considerations of this century. The military Industrial Complex cannot let this nation down on delivering this purchase. There are no financial do-overs for the project, and it must work according to its proposed procurement promise. I am confident no matter who gets the award, this bomber will be made to protect this nation without any significant problems.


Thursday, August 27, 2015

The Next Big Boeing Thing

The Wing, on the 777X opens up a whole new Boeing chapter. The 777X-9 will supplant all the older 747-400's in a sweep of its wing. The A-380 tongue depressor wings will just have to learn how to flap its flaps in salute of the mighty 108' span from the 777X center body. A video is provided below for those on a movie break from work.





120 foot autoclave for a 108 foot Wing


Popular Mechanics and Boeing Photos/Video

The 787 Couldn't Wait For This Battery

The battery gauntlet was thrown down by both Tesla and Boeing products. The explosion and fire exposed the battery technology in its Li infancy. Japan has pondered about a new battery invention and said the Li could be done better. MIT has weighed in with Samsung where a hypothesis of a solid state battery for its ultimate battery answer. It is a virtual forever battery. Another group in the Carolina's have devised  a concept in the lab. Many more scientist are in search of the "Fountain of Battery Youth".

The latest statement comes from MIT, "MIT and Samsung scientists claim that using solid-state batteries will be much safer, as well as more effective, holding 20 to 30% more charge, rather than the existing liquid electrolyte. "  

Thanks to Boeing, its battery fires, and explosion; a whole new battery pursuit was spawned because of those problems. To the winner comes the patents and fortune for all of industry. The scientist see the possibility, and when they see it they can't stop obsessing on it.  The DNA found in explorers does not stop at failure nor do road blocks detour the straight line results within an explorer's findings.

The Boeing Battery Solution it needs is coming in the next decade with the appropriate cashier check amount in hand.