Boeing Orders Talks Smack, and Then Banks Deliveries During July 2015

In a summery, Boeing delivered 58 units of all types over Airbus number of 52. Those are cash register deliveries. In other news, Boeing smacked down Airbus with 101 orders for all types, totaling, $15.56 Billion in future revenue receipts, as compared with Airbus' smallish number in comparison. Its July orders are for 26 aircraft from all types, totaling 2.6 Billion in equivalent monetary valuation.

World Largest Aircraft Building At Boeing Everett

The overshot of July with Boeing; it now holds the lead for the annual grand total on both orders and deliveries; at the end of one month past the midpoint in 2015 (Huh? July 31 , 2015). The 423 Boeing total book orders has breathed in a lead over Airbus' own 405 aircraft in total booked so far during 2015. I believe this to be the first official end of the month lead over Airbus for orders during 2015.  I'll check that out since it has been blurted out. Airbus has long held the 2015 order lead since January.

Boeing is well on its way of notching The World’s Largest Aircraft Manufacturer status over Airbus in 2015. Airbus made such a Big deal of obtaining that title during its few years it held that distinction, Winging It thought it take the "Tackiness Badge" away from Airbus bragging points, and start spouting about World's largest award in advance of any Boeing humility over the issue.

Winging It has purposefully been ramping-up the 2nd half of 2015 as a robust push by Boeing on all fronts of the equation. You may know it as the balance sheet equation. End of year predictions are going to be difficult from this peanut gallery position. Any attempt by an amateur from the nose bleed section should not be attempted. However, as far as the 787 are concerned I am still holding firm on about 100, 787 ordered and 130 787 delivered during 2015. The rest of the family has gone rouge for any actual guessing at this point so I am going to take a press view, and not say anything more until checked twice by unidentified sources.  

World's Largest Airplane as Depicted By Airbus In A Vision

Back In 2005 Dixon-Alan Joyce Thought This For Qantas (Updated)

Qantas had just signed for 65, 787 sending part of the order to Jet Star and then optioning for 50 more, totaling 115. The great recession hit, taking the Boeing star customer downtown to the bank, only to find its balance sheet look liked the recession itself, dire. Qantas woke up with a delusion of grandeur headache, and backed off Boeing by firming on 14 787-8 with Jetstar and opting the 50 787-9 to Qantas. Somewhere Qantas dropped 51 orders off before the Bank drive through leaving Boeing with the embarrassment of cancellation, during its Airplane Wars with Airbus. 

However fast forward, it’s the 2nd half of 2015. The ten years of Qantas regrouping brings hope to Boeing. The never-mind people from Qantas are back to studying routes with the 787-9 as the Qantas "what if" kids on the block can cipher its way into a purchase with Boeing.  

Australian Business Traveler Quotes: From 2005 and on

"Its new technology engines, cutting-edge airframe and increased seat count also offer a significant reduction in costs per ASK compared to the current Boeing 767." Mr Dixon said Qantas' current order was a mix of B787-8 and later model B787-9 aircraft. "When the B787-9 model is ready for service in 2011, it will represent an even greater engineering breakthrough, flying further than the B787-8 but with capacity for 50 additional passengers," he said." 

ASK used in Australia or: Available Seat Miles (ASMs) used in USA; Per MIT Glossary

A common industry measurement of airline output that refers to one aircraft seat flown one (K=Kilometer, M=Mile), whether occupied or not. An aircraft with 100 passenger seats, flown a distance of 100 miles, generates 10,000 available seat miles.

"Mr Dixon said the B787's lighter fuselage, which was constructed from composite material, allowed the aircraft to: 

* fly further with a full payload; 

* burn less fuel; 

* fly faster than any other aircraft of its size; and 

* reduce maintenance costs. 


"The composite fuselage also allows increased window size and a lower cabin altitude pressure that reduces the effects of jetlag." 

Remembering my own School of Business motto, "Time is Money" (not) Lux Et Veritas (Likely).

Time is pushing Qantas. They must of already computed the routes in modeling programs after long ago when receiving inputs for weights, winds, and distances using the Boeing performance data. It’s more likely the route study was completed before this intersection of discussion for the 787-9 vs the A-350, as just announced. 

Remembering, they just dissed the A-350-9 as a no go, because they did a side by side with the 787-9, and it came out as a Boeing win. Thus claiming its Business model and routes traveled suited choosing Boeing 787-9 best.

Australian Business Traveler Quote:

"We looked at both types of aircraft, on what the relative positions of the A350 and Boeing 787 were, and we found on all accounts the 787-9 was the better aircraft for us, for the market that we're talking about and the network that we're talking about" Joyce said."

Therefore, suggesting Qantas is waiting for route outcomes on its study for the 787-9 is only honoring the Santa Clause in its working papers, after backing the decision to go with Boeing. They are checking it twice for the stock holders (Santa Clause)! 

The Sydney Morning Herald Chart

Qantas: Will Boeing 787 dreams finally become reality?

Qantas is avoiding buyer’s regrets for some potential anguished investors buying-in on the upcoming Boeing-deal announcement. In advance they have done its due diligence, and can answer every question with authority. Everything is backed by research, planning and conclusions. The only thing(s) lacking is a Boeing-deal, is a Qantas implementation of its plan for it to become a reality instead of just a Dream.

El Al Files Closer to Buying New 787 Dreamliner Fleet

"New planes are earmarked for medium- and long-distance flights, including New York, Boston, Toronto and South Africa. 

El Al is in advanced negotiations with Boeing and a number of aircraft leasing companies for the purchase of 15 Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner airliners, the world’s most advanced aircraft. The deal will include the option of purchasing 13 additional aircraft and spare engines."

The Second half of 2015 has always been a target time for 787 in 2015. This blog has consistently advanced the notion that part II of 2015 will bring an abundance of orders for the 787 family of aircraft. The news above suggests this will happen before 2015 ends. Combing with Qantas in-the-works for ordering, is shaping up as a bonus 787 Boeing Year over its A-350 competitor. Long ago Winging It established a projection for the 2nd half of 2015 as peak moment for the 787 order book making further separation with the A-350 order book. This bit of news confirms that projection of orders is in-the-works.

The over-all compilation of orders-in-the-works has not yet reached a climax, but from October to December of 2015, Boeing will complete a big order cycle. The Boeing production machine has made this possible, churning out almost 12 a month, which has spurred customers moving sooner rather than later on the order book. While Airbus remains finding its own production legs, having only delivered a handful of A-350 since its first delivery during December 2014. Mainly, Airbus delivering to its clientele favorite, Qatar.

I don't doubt Airbus capability for its A-350 in production or flight performance. However, after hearing Alan Joyce, Qantas, remark, "we have studied the A-350 and find the 787 a perfect fit for our market", or something close to that statement. Making this a strong indication that the post A-350 Rush To Orders (RTO) period is complete. The closing of RTO for Airbus signals a long drawn out effort for its marketing team for its participation in the Airplane Wars. It means Boeing has started reloading its own Order Book in the Post RTO period in the face of delivered A-350's. All participants have now had a chance to weigh both mega builders’ proposals for new aircraft when currently flying its Airbus type, while the 787 is gaining momentum during 2015. Boeing's head start on the production backlog gives it the high ground. 

Boeing's 787 superior performance with 304 models flying, demonstrates a competitive advantage over Airbus in side by route matching battles while exposing its A-330 as a pretender. The A-330 in service has become the retirement aircraft of choice. Qantas will be a good example for that metric, when its orders the 787-9 this fall. 

The RTO period began with Boeing in 2004 and ended 2007. In 2007/2008 Airbus started gaining strength for its A-350 order book while Boeing started its Post 787 Announcement slow period in 2008.

Boeing RTO

* Year To Date On Article Date
Airbus RTO  Period
Boeing Post Airbus RTO Period Market Stability

Note: Boeing has no negative cancellation (netted) on its books, as compared with the A-350. The A-350 shows two negative net years in 2011 and 2014 for a total of 63 net A-350 cancellations. I guess that could happen to anybody, but it happened to Airbus slowing down its RTO surge and essentially stop its A-350 type growth where Boeing is just now gaining new strength from recent Customer leanings towards the 787 family of aircraft.

Airbus A350 orders and deliveries by year

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Orders	2	292[2]	163[3]	51	78	-31	27	230	-32	1	781
Deliveries	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	4	5

This is roughed in result assigning RTO for Boeing 2004-2007

The Airbus Chart shows an immediate -350 reaction in 2007, and then it settles in with order book cancellation during 2011. It also lost 70 from Emirates in 2014 taking a second negative year during its initial RTO period which ended in 2013.

Note, both Airbus and Boeing open up with 787-10 and A350-1000 ordering during 2013. It’s a transition year for both makers.

Now Boeing is positioned to make a statement at the Next Big Show. It can announce the Post RTO era belongs to the Boeing 787.  Dubai Airshow is next up and may have some surprises at the show if enough notary stamps are available for signing. Prediction: Boeing will go plus 100 787 ordered in 2015, and Airbus will lose lift and stall out? Yes it will! 

'Under the order wing", during last couple of weeks:

• EVA Air 24-26,  787     In Discussions
• Qantas  50,      787-9  Under Consideration
• EL AL    15/13  787     In Discussions almost complete Intent Annonced

Total: 90 787's not including options gained within the 2015 time frame.

Adding the 25 (net) already booked for 2015 could result 
with a 112-115, 787 total order book during 2015. This sales order number could even go higher! 

The Qantas 787-9 Order Is All But Announced

The Quote  Of The Day: CAPA

Qantas says A350 was evaluated, but Boeing '787-9 is a better aircraft for us'

CEO Alan Joyce, at the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit, said (04-Aug-2015) the Boeing 787-9 “is a great replacement aircraft for some of the 747s over time.” Mr Joyce noted the carrier evaluated the A350 but: “We found in our minds the 787-9 is a better aircraft for us in the markets and network we’re talking about.” Mr Joyce said the recent agreements with pilots to operate the 787-9 “was a major step in the right direction” but noted: “We’re working through the fleet economics, the route economics to see if we can justify the 787s... We’re working through that process now.”

The Qantas Slope towards its 787-9 order announcement has steepened with this above corporate mention. Alan Joyce is almost falling over himself trying to keep 787-9 Boeing order a secret, when it has become eminent that Qantas will pull the plug on an order announcement.

The order book dreaming can start again. At the end of the Third Qantas quarter, 2015, I would expect its Ducks would be in a row for ordering a plethora 787’s during October 2015. It is on the books for 50 options. That number could change in a confirmation order. The two points hanging are what Qantas dreams about and what is the least we can do when being overly cautious. More than 50 is dreaming and less than 25 is overly cautious.

The question now remains, if fleet expansion is in the works beyond its 2009 goals. Given that the 747 are going into retirement and the A330’s will be phased out of the fleet when 787-9 deliveries commence. But what about Qantas’ Fleet Vision tied to its Market goals? How much is Qantas going to attack the region, or in reality half the World with the 787-9’s?   

Many questions have been answered behind closed doors for Qantas, but a confirmed order announcement will tell the rest of the story for the airline.

·      A 25. 787-9 order suggest a cautious status quo with no competitive expansion in the near future.
· A 50, 787-9 order matching its option quantity is a middle of the road order living up to its original vision of renewing the fleet in total.
·  Greater than 50 is a rewrite of its original vision as it sees itself as a real competitor for the region.

Winging It considers a Qantas 50 with a new options added for both the 787-10 and 787-9 on the books as flexing its wings for future intentions. Qantas does not seek a status quo conditions as its regional competitors no long consider Qantas a real threat to its own expansions. Singapore, Etihad and China see the emergence of the 787 family, a game changer opening up new markets longer away from home base. Australia and New Zealand are in the cross hairs for expansion from Japan as well. Qantas is forced to react or die as a competitor.

The announcement quoted from CAPA is an emergency flare gunshot signaling Qantas ready to take on the region and save its stake in the “Airplane Wars”. It has its ducks in a row. Cross the T’s dot the I’s let’s go Boeing is the above quote.

MIT Crib Notes On The Airline Businesss

Starting somewhere is more important than not starting at all. MIT has provided information for airline readers with a handy and accurate guide, information, and summations considered in the "industry". I often run into terminology which is sometimes misused or confusing when a writer pulls a term into its article is ill fitted for the curious reader. I may have done the same in the past, but now I want to include a website which can be referenced, when alphabet soup is what's for dinner in an article. An author may assume everyone knows what CASM means, and yet does not explain it in the article well. 

Below are the MIT crib notes in Glossary format for your information with a lucid understanding of acronyms bantered about aviation: Expect a follow-up article using MIT Project terminology, so I can act smarter than a freshman at MIT.

Reference Link: MIT Data Project Glossary

Aircraft Utilization
Measure of aircraft productivity, calculated by dividing aircraft block hours by the number of aircraft days assigned to service on air carrier routes. Typically presented in block hours per day.

Available Seat Miles (ASMs)
A common industry measurement of airline output that refers to one aircraft seat flown one mile, whether occupied or not. An aircraft with 100 passenger seats, flown a distance of 100 miles, generates 10,000 available seat miles.

Average Aircraft Capacity
Average seating configuration of an airline’s operating fleet. The measure is derived by dividing total available seat miles flown by the number of aircraft miles flown. It is important to understand the average aircraft size as it is an important determinant of employees needed to service the operation of a particular airline.

Block Hour
Time from the moment the aircraft door closes at departure of a revenue flight until the moment the aircraft door opens at the arrival gate following its landing. Block hours are the industry standard measure of aircraft utilization (see above).

Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM) 
Measure of unit cost in the airline industry. CASM is calculated by taking all of an airline’s operating expenses and dividing it by the total number of available seat miles produced. Sometimes, fuel or transport-related expenses are withheld from CASM calculations to better isolate and directly compare operating expenses.

Unit Cost per Unit of Output
A measurement that gauges total operating costs in relation to output.

Form 41 Data 
Information derived from airline filings with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airline financial data is filed with the BTS quarterly; traffic and employment numbers are filed monthly.

Load Factor
The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats.

Operating Revenue
Revenues received from total airline operations including scheduled and non-scheduled service. Sources of revenue include passenger, cargo, excess baggage and certain other transport-related revenue.

Passenger Revenue
Revenue received by the airline from the carriage of passengers in scheduled operations.

Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (PRASM)
Often referred to as a measure of passenger “unit revenue.” It is calculated by dividing passenger revenue by available seat miles. Typically the measure is presented in terms of cents per mile. This measure is equivalent to the product of load factor and passenger yield (see below).

Passenger Yield
Measure of average fare paid per mile, per passenger, calculated by dividing passenger revenue by revenue passenger miles (RPMs). Typically the measure is presented in cents per mile and is useful measure in assessing changes in fares over time. Yield is not useful for comparisons across markets and/or airlines, as it varies dramatically by stage length and does not incorporate load factor (unlike PRASM).

Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM)
Also called "unit revenue," this figure is calculated by dividing the airline’s total revenue by its total the available seat miles.

Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs)
This is the basic measure of airline passenger traffic. It reflects how many of an airline's available seats were actually sold. For example, if 200 passengers fly 500 miles on a flight, this generates 100,000 RPMs.


Revenue per Employee
One measure to determine an airline’s labor productivity. It is calculated by dividing an airline’s total revenue by the number of airline employee full-time equivalents as reported to the US Department of Transportation.

Stage Length 
The average distance flown, measure in statute miles, per aircraft departure. The measure is calculated by dividing total aircraft miles flown by the number of total aircraft departures performed.

Stage Length Adjusted Total Revenue per Equivalent Seat Mile (SLA TRESM)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of TRASM between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Stage Length Adjusted Passenger Revenue per Equivalent Seat Mile (SLA PRESM)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of PRASM between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Stage Length Adjusted Passenger Yield (Passenger Revenue Per Revenue Passenger Mile)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of Passenger Yield between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM)
Often referred to as a measure of unit revenue. It is calculated by dividing total operating revenue by available seat miles. Typically the measure is presented in terms of cents per mile. 

Transport-Related Revenues (Costs)
Transport-related revenues (or costs) are revenues (or costs) that result from service operated by a regional affiliate of a network carrier. Such revenues (or costs) are often excluded from RASM or CASM calculations to allow network carriers to be compared directly with carriers that do not offer service using regional affiliates.

Boeing's Official: Seat-Range-Type Chart

Boeing has had many changes to its aircraft and especially what customer may configure each type. A "mean" has been established with Boeing on its family of aircraft. For many years they have used the same set of numbers for its family of aircraft. Since the 737 Max is being brought forward and the 787 family will reach completion in three years. Boeing is also bringing up-to-date its 777X family of aircraft for both the 777-8X and 777-9X. The data is a thumb nail of the real world of travel and what its customers really expect before purchasing a Boeing product in the listed typical configurations (2015 Assumptions).

Boeing Data

A general reduction in distance for each aircraft type is noted over its old scale of which Boeing used for many years. The updated or new data is the effective seat-range relationship it has for all its commercial aircraft. Use this for guidance when considering Boeing's family of aircraft.

Source: Flight Global

Boeing revises "obsolete" performance assumptions

By: STEPHEN TRIMBLE

WASHINGTON DC

Source: 

in 3 hour 

Its The passenger Size "Stupid"

The long discussed topic about airline seats has missed the over-arching point. It’s the passenger size stupid. Going to the demographic chart will quickly make the point. It also makes the point for purchasing which airplane makes the best sense. The average Canadian woman: Example 

1.                 153 pounds

2.    Canada: The average Canadian woman's weight is 153 pounds (69.4 kg) and height is 5' 3.4" (161 cm). Her male counterpart weighs 182 pounds (82.7 kg), and is 5' 8.5" (174 cm) tall.Dec 4, 2006.

USA Today: USA Women					USA Men
	Data	Weight		Height			Weight		Height
	1988 - 1994	152 lb	69 kg	5' 3.7"	162 cm		180	82	5' 9.1"	176 cm
	1999 - 2000	163 lb	74 kg	5' 3.8"	163 cm		190	86	5' 9.3"	176 cm
	Canadian Women						Canadian Men
	Data	Weight		Height			Weight		Height
	2005	153 lb	69 kg	5' 3.4"	161 cm		182	83	5' 8.5"	174 cm

Wiki

By region

Region	Adult population (millions)	Average weight
Asia	2,815	57.7 kg (127.2 lb)
Europe	606	70.8 kg (156.1 lb)
Latin America and the Caribbean	386	67.9 kg (149.7 lb)
North America	263	80.7 kg (177.9 lb)

The XWB body A-350-9 looses it talking point by the time it lands in Japan. The best option becomes the 787-9 for all operations in the Orient. The human weight and dimension factors are considered for each market. Then comes the configuration metric for the airplane. The majority of the world is not North America. Boeing has long designed its 787 towards the majority in spite of the of the Airbus XWB moniker. Efficiency blended with passenger amenity is what Boeing sought for its original design. Airbus may have opted going five inches wider more for its own manufacturing convenience than passenger sentiment.

Dog Days of Summer and Marx Brothers Plague KC-46

Scott Fancher is on board with the KC-46 probably before the summer started and the recent news has mentioned his appearance. Now that July is over we learn of bad fueling welds, miss labeled chemicals flushed through the KC-Tanker fuel tanks and lines. 

The rats are scurrying from the KC-46 shop. Its as if the Marx Brothers were in charge of the project before Fancher showed-up. Cost is a four letter word in Boeing's vernacular. 

Fancher probably has already said these words, "Cost-you, you're out-a-here". "Why don't you just Cost-off and ride the horse you rode into town with", as Francer wrung his hands. "You Mother-coster and so forth", I think you get the corporate sentiment brought to the factory floor. 

Fancher probably said to the fuel line sub contracting welders, don't let the hanger bay door hit you in the Bum on the way out. To the chemical label makers, he shouted "Graucho, Gummo,  Zeppo and Harpo, I have a job for you in Toulouse France!"

Not you are getting the sense, the Dog days of summer, comes with the AC turned way down. Have you ever seen a suit explode? It's not pretty, because they can explode your career, your family life style, and the boat to boot. If you let another sticky note "soap label" go on a sulfuric acid bottle, well it will dearly Cost You! Things are changing for Boeing in August. Starting today, a new sheriff is in Boeing town. The Pegasus project is pummeled into shape starting today. August 1, 2015.

Scott Fancher is On Mission possible, Pegasus