El Al Files Closer to Buying New 787 Dreamliner Fleet

"New planes are earmarked for medium- and long-distance flights, including New York, Boston, Toronto and South Africa. 

El Al is in advanced negotiations with Boeing and a number of aircraft leasing companies for the purchase of 15 Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner airliners, the world’s most advanced aircraft. The deal will include the option of purchasing 13 additional aircraft and spare engines."

The Second half of 2015 has always been a target time for 787 in 2015. This blog has consistently advanced the notion that part II of 2015 will bring an abundance of orders for the 787 family of aircraft. The news above suggests this will happen before 2015 ends. Combing with Qantas in-the-works for ordering, is shaping up as a bonus 787 Boeing Year over its A-350 competitor. Long ago Winging It established a projection for the 2nd half of 2015 as peak moment for the 787 order book making further separation with the A-350 order book. This bit of news confirms that projection of orders is in-the-works.

The over-all compilation of orders-in-the-works has not yet reached a climax, but from October to December of 2015, Boeing will complete a big order cycle. The Boeing production machine has made this possible, churning out almost 12 a month, which has spurred customers moving sooner rather than later on the order book. While Airbus remains finding its own production legs, having only delivered a handful of A-350 since its first delivery during December 2014. Mainly, Airbus delivering to its clientele favorite, Qatar.

I don't doubt Airbus capability for its A-350 in production or flight performance. However, after hearing Alan Joyce, Qantas, remark, "we have studied the A-350 and find the 787 a perfect fit for our market", or something close to that statement. Making this a strong indication that the post A-350 Rush To Orders (RTO) period is complete. The closing of RTO for Airbus signals a long drawn out effort for its marketing team for its participation in the Airplane Wars. It means Boeing has started reloading its own Order Book in the Post RTO period in the face of delivered A-350's. All participants have now had a chance to weigh both mega builders’ proposals for new aircraft when currently flying its Airbus type, while the 787 is gaining momentum during 2015. Boeing's head start on the production backlog gives it the high ground. 

Boeing's 787 superior performance with 304 models flying, demonstrates a competitive advantage over Airbus in side by route matching battles while exposing its A-330 as a pretender. The A-330 in service has become the retirement aircraft of choice. Qantas will be a good example for that metric, when its orders the 787-9 this fall. 

The RTO period began with Boeing in 2004 and ended 2007. In 2007/2008 Airbus started gaining strength for its A-350 order book while Boeing started its Post 787 Announcement slow period in 2008.

Boeing RTO

* Year To Date On Article Date
Airbus RTO  Period
Boeing Post Airbus RTO Period Market Stability

Note: Boeing has no negative cancellation (netted) on its books, as compared with the A-350. The A-350 shows two negative net years in 2011 and 2014 for a total of 63 net A-350 cancellations. I guess that could happen to anybody, but it happened to Airbus slowing down its RTO surge and essentially stop its A-350 type growth where Boeing is just now gaining new strength from recent Customer leanings towards the 787 family of aircraft.

Airbus A350 orders and deliveries by year

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Orders	2	292[2]	163[3]	51	78	-31	27	230	-32	1	781
Deliveries	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	4	5

This is roughed in result assigning RTO for Boeing 2004-2007

The Airbus Chart shows an immediate -350 reaction in 2007, and then it settles in with order book cancellation during 2011. It also lost 70 from Emirates in 2014 taking a second negative year during its initial RTO period which ended in 2013.

Note, both Airbus and Boeing open up with 787-10 and A350-1000 ordering during 2013. It’s a transition year for both makers.

Now Boeing is positioned to make a statement at the Next Big Show. It can announce the Post RTO era belongs to the Boeing 787.  Dubai Airshow is next up and may have some surprises at the show if enough notary stamps are available for signing. Prediction: Boeing will go plus 100 787 ordered in 2015, and Airbus will lose lift and stall out? Yes it will! 

'Under the order wing", during last couple of weeks:

• EVA Air 24-26,  787     In Discussions
• Qantas  50,      787-9  Under Consideration
• EL AL    15/13  787     In Discussions almost complete Intent Annonced

Total: 90 787's not including options gained within the 2015 time frame.

Adding the 25 (net) already booked for 2015 could result 
with a 112-115, 787 total order book during 2015. This sales order number could even go higher! 

The Qantas 787-9 Order Is All But Announced

The Quote  Of The Day: CAPA

Qantas says A350 was evaluated, but Boeing '787-9 is a better aircraft for us'

CEO Alan Joyce, at the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit, said (04-Aug-2015) the Boeing 787-9 “is a great replacement aircraft for some of the 747s over time.” Mr Joyce noted the carrier evaluated the A350 but: “We found in our minds the 787-9 is a better aircraft for us in the markets and network we’re talking about.” Mr Joyce said the recent agreements with pilots to operate the 787-9 “was a major step in the right direction” but noted: “We’re working through the fleet economics, the route economics to see if we can justify the 787s... We’re working through that process now.”

The Qantas Slope towards its 787-9 order announcement has steepened with this above corporate mention. Alan Joyce is almost falling over himself trying to keep 787-9 Boeing order a secret, when it has become eminent that Qantas will pull the plug on an order announcement.

The order book dreaming can start again. At the end of the Third Qantas quarter, 2015, I would expect its Ducks would be in a row for ordering a plethora 787’s during October 2015. It is on the books for 50 options. That number could change in a confirmation order. The two points hanging are what Qantas dreams about and what is the least we can do when being overly cautious. More than 50 is dreaming and less than 25 is overly cautious.

The question now remains, if fleet expansion is in the works beyond its 2009 goals. Given that the 747 are going into retirement and the A330’s will be phased out of the fleet when 787-9 deliveries commence. But what about Qantas’ Fleet Vision tied to its Market goals? How much is Qantas going to attack the region, or in reality half the World with the 787-9’s?   

Many questions have been answered behind closed doors for Qantas, but a confirmed order announcement will tell the rest of the story for the airline.

·      A 25. 787-9 order suggest a cautious status quo with no competitive expansion in the near future.
· A 50, 787-9 order matching its option quantity is a middle of the road order living up to its original vision of renewing the fleet in total.
·  Greater than 50 is a rewrite of its original vision as it sees itself as a real competitor for the region.

Winging It considers a Qantas 50 with a new options added for both the 787-10 and 787-9 on the books as flexing its wings for future intentions. Qantas does not seek a status quo conditions as its regional competitors no long consider Qantas a real threat to its own expansions. Singapore, Etihad and China see the emergence of the 787 family, a game changer opening up new markets longer away from home base. Australia and New Zealand are in the cross hairs for expansion from Japan as well. Qantas is forced to react or die as a competitor.

The announcement quoted from CAPA is an emergency flare gunshot signaling Qantas ready to take on the region and save its stake in the “Airplane Wars”. It has its ducks in a row. Cross the T’s dot the I’s let’s go Boeing is the above quote.

MIT Crib Notes On The Airline Businesss

Starting somewhere is more important than not starting at all. MIT has provided information for airline readers with a handy and accurate guide, information, and summations considered in the "industry". I often run into terminology which is sometimes misused or confusing when a writer pulls a term into its article is ill fitted for the curious reader. I may have done the same in the past, but now I want to include a website which can be referenced, when alphabet soup is what's for dinner in an article. An author may assume everyone knows what CASM means, and yet does not explain it in the article well. 

Below are the MIT crib notes in Glossary format for your information with a lucid understanding of acronyms bantered about aviation: Expect a follow-up article using MIT Project terminology, so I can act smarter than a freshman at MIT.

Reference Link: MIT Data Project Glossary

Aircraft Utilization
Measure of aircraft productivity, calculated by dividing aircraft block hours by the number of aircraft days assigned to service on air carrier routes. Typically presented in block hours per day.

Available Seat Miles (ASMs)
A common industry measurement of airline output that refers to one aircraft seat flown one mile, whether occupied or not. An aircraft with 100 passenger seats, flown a distance of 100 miles, generates 10,000 available seat miles.

Average Aircraft Capacity
Average seating configuration of an airline’s operating fleet. The measure is derived by dividing total available seat miles flown by the number of aircraft miles flown. It is important to understand the average aircraft size as it is an important determinant of employees needed to service the operation of a particular airline.

Block Hour
Time from the moment the aircraft door closes at departure of a revenue flight until the moment the aircraft door opens at the arrival gate following its landing. Block hours are the industry standard measure of aircraft utilization (see above).

Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM) 
Measure of unit cost in the airline industry. CASM is calculated by taking all of an airline’s operating expenses and dividing it by the total number of available seat miles produced. Sometimes, fuel or transport-related expenses are withheld from CASM calculations to better isolate and directly compare operating expenses.

Unit Cost per Unit of Output
A measurement that gauges total operating costs in relation to output.

Form 41 Data 
Information derived from airline filings with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airline financial data is filed with the BTS quarterly; traffic and employment numbers are filed monthly.

Load Factor
The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats.

Operating Revenue
Revenues received from total airline operations including scheduled and non-scheduled service. Sources of revenue include passenger, cargo, excess baggage and certain other transport-related revenue.

Passenger Revenue
Revenue received by the airline from the carriage of passengers in scheduled operations.

Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (PRASM)
Often referred to as a measure of passenger “unit revenue.” It is calculated by dividing passenger revenue by available seat miles. Typically the measure is presented in terms of cents per mile. This measure is equivalent to the product of load factor and passenger yield (see below).

Passenger Yield
Measure of average fare paid per mile, per passenger, calculated by dividing passenger revenue by revenue passenger miles (RPMs). Typically the measure is presented in cents per mile and is useful measure in assessing changes in fares over time. Yield is not useful for comparisons across markets and/or airlines, as it varies dramatically by stage length and does not incorporate load factor (unlike PRASM).

Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM)
Also called "unit revenue," this figure is calculated by dividing the airline’s total revenue by its total the available seat miles.

Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs)
This is the basic measure of airline passenger traffic. It reflects how many of an airline's available seats were actually sold. For example, if 200 passengers fly 500 miles on a flight, this generates 100,000 RPMs.


Revenue per Employee
One measure to determine an airline’s labor productivity. It is calculated by dividing an airline’s total revenue by the number of airline employee full-time equivalents as reported to the US Department of Transportation.

Stage Length 
The average distance flown, measure in statute miles, per aircraft departure. The measure is calculated by dividing total aircraft miles flown by the number of total aircraft departures performed.

Stage Length Adjusted Total Revenue per Equivalent Seat Mile (SLA TRESM)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of TRASM between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Stage Length Adjusted Passenger Revenue per Equivalent Seat Mile (SLA PRESM)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of PRASM between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Stage Length Adjusted Passenger Yield (Passenger Revenue Per Revenue Passenger Mile)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of Passenger Yield between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM)
Often referred to as a measure of unit revenue. It is calculated by dividing total operating revenue by available seat miles. Typically the measure is presented in terms of cents per mile. 

Transport-Related Revenues (Costs)
Transport-related revenues (or costs) are revenues (or costs) that result from service operated by a regional affiliate of a network carrier. Such revenues (or costs) are often excluded from RASM or CASM calculations to allow network carriers to be compared directly with carriers that do not offer service using regional affiliates.

Boeing's Official: Seat-Range-Type Chart

Boeing has had many changes to its aircraft and especially what customer may configure each type. A "mean" has been established with Boeing on its family of aircraft. For many years they have used the same set of numbers for its family of aircraft. Since the 737 Max is being brought forward and the 787 family will reach completion in three years. Boeing is also bringing up-to-date its 777X family of aircraft for both the 777-8X and 777-9X. The data is a thumb nail of the real world of travel and what its customers really expect before purchasing a Boeing product in the listed typical configurations (2015 Assumptions).

Boeing Data

A general reduction in distance for each aircraft type is noted over its old scale of which Boeing used for many years. The updated or new data is the effective seat-range relationship it has for all its commercial aircraft. Use this for guidance when considering Boeing's family of aircraft.

Source: Flight Global

Boeing revises "obsolete" performance assumptions

By: STEPHEN TRIMBLE

WASHINGTON DC

Source: 

in 3 hour 

Its The passenger Size "Stupid"

The long discussed topic about airline seats has missed the over-arching point. It’s the passenger size stupid. Going to the demographic chart will quickly make the point. It also makes the point for purchasing which airplane makes the best sense. The average Canadian woman: Example 

1.                 153 pounds

2.    Canada: The average Canadian woman's weight is 153 pounds (69.4 kg) and height is 5' 3.4" (161 cm). Her male counterpart weighs 182 pounds (82.7 kg), and is 5' 8.5" (174 cm) tall.Dec 4, 2006.

USA Today: USA Women					USA Men
	Data	Weight		Height			Weight		Height
	1988 - 1994	152 lb	69 kg	5' 3.7"	162 cm		180	82	5' 9.1"	176 cm
	1999 - 2000	163 lb	74 kg	5' 3.8"	163 cm		190	86	5' 9.3"	176 cm
	Canadian Women						Canadian Men
	Data	Weight		Height			Weight		Height
	2005	153 lb	69 kg	5' 3.4"	161 cm		182	83	5' 8.5"	174 cm

Wiki

By region

Region	Adult population (millions)	Average weight
Asia	2,815	57.7 kg (127.2 lb)
Europe	606	70.8 kg (156.1 lb)
Latin America and the Caribbean	386	67.9 kg (149.7 lb)
North America	263	80.7 kg (177.9 lb)

The XWB body A-350-9 looses it talking point by the time it lands in Japan. The best option becomes the 787-9 for all operations in the Orient. The human weight and dimension factors are considered for each market. Then comes the configuration metric for the airplane. The majority of the world is not North America. Boeing has long designed its 787 towards the majority in spite of the of the Airbus XWB moniker. Efficiency blended with passenger amenity is what Boeing sought for its original design. Airbus may have opted going five inches wider more for its own manufacturing convenience than passenger sentiment.

Dog Days of Summer and Marx Brothers Plague KC-46

Scott Fancher is on board with the KC-46 probably before the summer started and the recent news has mentioned his appearance. Now that July is over we learn of bad fueling welds, miss labeled chemicals flushed through the KC-Tanker fuel tanks and lines. 

The rats are scurrying from the KC-46 shop. Its as if the Marx Brothers were in charge of the project before Fancher showed-up. Cost is a four letter word in Boeing's vernacular. 

Fancher probably has already said these words, "Cost-you, you're out-a-here". "Why don't you just Cost-off and ride the horse you rode into town with", as Francer wrung his hands. "You Mother-coster and so forth", I think you get the corporate sentiment brought to the factory floor. 

Fancher probably said to the fuel line sub contracting welders, don't let the hanger bay door hit you in the Bum on the way out. To the chemical label makers, he shouted "Graucho, Gummo,  Zeppo and Harpo, I have a job for you in Toulouse France!"

Not you are getting the sense, the Dog days of summer, comes with the AC turned way down. Have you ever seen a suit explode? It's not pretty, because they can explode your career, your family life style, and the boat to boot. If you let another sticky note "soap label" go on a sulfuric acid bottle, well it will dearly Cost You! Things are changing for Boeing in August. Starting today, a new sheriff is in Boeing town. The Pegasus project is pummeled into shape starting today. August 1, 2015.

Scott Fancher is On Mission possible, Pegasus

Boeing Progress Report July 31, 2015

The below reports are  not final, as of July 31, which has not closed. However, it is an accurate thumbnail sketch of  the first month of Quarter III. My own Boeing expectations for the 787 segment, builds on the various loose ends remaining before the end of 2015, while filling the 787 program again. Expectations are set for a Qantas 787 confirmation placement before year's end. There remains multiple possibilities for add-on 787 orders since customer's initial orders have been delivered and have been in operation for some years. Creating an expectation of 787-10 orders and additional 787-9 orders before year's end. This report demonstrates  Boeing's capability for both Order Book status and delivery consistency, inferring a guidance on Boeing's ability for more 787 Orders remaining in 2015 making these numbers conventional expectations. 

Chart: 7-2015-1

* YTD numbers

The above chart 1 indicates an order opportunity for those who are prime for fleet enhancements (only 25 net orders). Such as Qantas who have indicated it is waiting for its "ship to come in" during 2015, then it will fill out commitments for 50 787-9's as confirmed. There remains some opportunity for 787-10's this year. The second half of 2015 will be robust for the 787 as Winging It, has long since believed, 2015 will become a separation point from its competitor in sales and delivery. 2015, will be a strong 787 order year with a reduction of backlog at the same time. 

Chart 7-2015-2:

The order book status remains higher than what it was during its first production year in 2011 even after 304 787's are delivered. 

Chart: 7-2015-3

Production Management is extremely pleased with a steady 90 day delivery pace of about 12, 787's each month. It indicates Boeing is serious with its goals of 12 787's a month, in-spite of any road blocks. It is achieving a difficult pace, which a competitor will find hard to duplicate in any circumstance. 

Chart: 7-2015-4

The 90 day moving average is a long term measure which adjusts the production flow over three months into one number. All road bumps during ninety days are smoothed into this number in Chart 4.

A 90 day moving average 11.667 units a month, says what will happen over time as Boeing delivers almost 12-787's a month pace, every month. Customers are loving this particular talking point. Any Customer sensitivity towards financial uncertainty, disrupts its own operations. It needs to know when its  aircraft will become ready for delivery, so it is ready to complete the 200 million dollar purchase with its operations, finances, and with its own flying customer's. The moving average of about 12 units a month has become the norm, and a customer will need to arrange with the bank for its next delivery at a specified time. Any customer now knows that it has to have a plan in place by having all its own moving parts from logistics to crew training at least planned one year ahead of a certain delivery date. However, this can frustrate Boeing also, when a customer meets its own bump in the road before delivery, as often is the case. The customer can gum up the Boeing production line with its own problems of not being ready or having financial goals met.

KC-46 Will Not Be Your Father's F-22 Procurement Debacle

Boeing is making serious moves in its demonstration for the DOD, why they choose Boeing wisely. What's at stake is not the KC-46 Pegasus program, but a genuine effort in preparation for the next Boeing bid. Part of that preparation is company integrity, leadership and delivery of mission accomplished. Boeing is stepping ahead of any avalanche coming down from on top of them during the KC-46 project.

Normally, writing about the KC-46 is a summer past time, but this is really an important change in corporate responsibility coming from Boeing. They really can't stand Airbus and its A-330 offering for a tanker. Scott Fancher, the company's head of development programs at Commercial Airplanes, is standing in the middle of the KC-46 program for one purpose, and one purpose only. Deliver the program on time exceeding all military expectations for this tanker.

This is the corporate specialist on board, and will be taking names and overseeing the program. Nobody is on the hot seat, yet! He is Boeing's point man for mission accomplished. Something important is going on in Boeing's scheme of military thing's and the KC-46 is the stepping stone to that import goal. Perhaps a sizable drone contract has an unannounced RFP in the formation, and Boeing wants to add a due diligence criteria coming from completing its KC-46 Pegasus mission, as on time and meeting all expectations.

Boeing Shuffles Leadership for Struggling KC-46 Program

By Aaron Mehta6:21 p.m. EDT July 30, 2015  Defense News

Make Flying Fun and Passengers Will Come.

An Airline Like Scoot has captured an inspired theme with its Yellow Gold livery. It has to compete with the Big Boys and Girls of the sky. By 2019 it will have Twenty 787 of both types supplanting its former fleet dichotomy.



Fly Scoot.Com starts the fun theme. Tech savvy customers see the nuance in the .com painted on the airline. The 375 seat 787-9 has a party theme of everybody is here for the party. The 335 passenger 787-8 seating theme, is about: "shush, don't tell anybody else, we're good". The party is started when the bright Yellow/Gold lands. Everyone not flying on Scoot notices the illuminated incursion on the flight line.

787-9 375 Seats

This isn't the first time Winging It has featured a Scoot photo or aircraft and it won't be the last time. I also had a hankering for Ethiopian's 787's, when it took off. What caught my eye is its livery that just looks like fun "E" ticket ride. Scoot is considering going west as far as London. It was or is, a small airline on the grand scheme of things. It's rubbing shoulders with the China barrage of options in the region. Qantas is also looking over its shoulders whether to order up 787-9's.

787-8 335 Seats

However, Scoot is making it possible for its plan now, with its handful of 787 in Scoot Livery. It looks fun flying Scoot. It turned my head in an airport full of Blue hued aircraft liveries sitting idol while waiting for passengers. I just wanted to fly on the Yellow-Gold Bird. I wanted to change my ticket to the yellow livery, and have a little fun. I'm an impulsive traveler. with a penchant for loyalty with what works. Yellow-Gold really works on my brain.

Over-stressing On 787 Occurances

From time to time something happens to the 787. For that matter from time something happens to every other Airplane model in existence. It may be metal fatigue or an anomaly found on its fight systems such as the A-330 found in a dicey situation flying over the Atlantic when it was lost coming out of Brazil to Paris. You may know it as Air France flight #442. Either way it was a disaster. Somehow every time a 787 gets a nick in the bonnet, it headlines and the doom and gloom come out to play with the 787.

Recently it was a hail storm on a 787: From Daily Mail

American Airlines' new Dreamliner jet was pummeled by hail, 'dropped hundreds of feet' and was forced to return to Beijing

·       Texas-bound Flight 88 carrying 209 passengers and a crew of 13 on board returned to Beijing after sustaining hail damage 44 minutes into the trip

·       American has seven Dreamliners, which carry a list price of $224.6million each 

·       Plane's fuselage and wings are made from carbon-fiber composite material instead of aluminum to reduce weight

·       Delta Air Lines Flight 159 from Detroit to Seoul, South Korea, had its nose badly battered by hail while flying over China in June 

Word Play headlines from “Forbes” conjures up this image:

American Airlines' 787 Dreamliner Nightmare

"American Airlines probably thought it was making the right move when it bought seven Boeing 787 Dreamliners. After all, as I noted in my book, You Can’t Order Change, the $166 million 250 to 330 seat aircraft was known for using 20% less fuel — thus the profits from filling them up would be higher.

But that was before American Airlines Flight 88 flew through a hailstorm outside of Beijing on July 27. The result was a punched-in nose that will keep the aircraft on the ground for now.

However, I think the Forbes opinion piece is hogwash over the nose cone. It can be replaced, it can be fixed, and it just happens as all in aircraft flights. The plastic model expects hail, sleet and Ice. It also plans on having bumps on the ground. So when that happens the news flow over to the doom and gloom committee for a thorough vetting. Wall Street is not grabbing its umbrella and jumping off the nearest bridge. Read the Forbes article if it even added anything of value before you leap to an untimely conclusion about the plastic airplane."

The maturation process of the 787 is a work in progress of its all new technology. It will fly under all conceivable conditions. It can be repaired with all conceivable damage. Note the Ethiopian 787 crown fire was a first time unknown on how to repair.  It flies on just the same. The American Airlines hail incident is a 787 bloody nose during a hail storm and not a night mare as dared click on the headline, where the reader expects doom and gloom.