Boeing Progress Report July 31, 2015

The below reports are  not final, as of July 31, which has not closed. However, it is an accurate thumbnail sketch of  the first month of Quarter III. My own Boeing expectations for the 787 segment, builds on the various loose ends remaining before the end of 2015, while filling the 787 program again. Expectations are set for a Qantas 787 confirmation placement before year's end. There remains multiple possibilities for add-on 787 orders since customer's initial orders have been delivered and have been in operation for some years. Creating an expectation of 787-10 orders and additional 787-9 orders before year's end. This report demonstrates  Boeing's capability for both Order Book status and delivery consistency, inferring a guidance on Boeing's ability for more 787 Orders remaining in 2015 making these numbers conventional expectations. 

Chart: 7-2015-1

* YTD numbers

The above chart 1 indicates an order opportunity for those who are prime for fleet enhancements (only 25 net orders). Such as Qantas who have indicated it is waiting for its "ship to come in" during 2015, then it will fill out commitments for 50 787-9's as confirmed. There remains some opportunity for 787-10's this year. The second half of 2015 will be robust for the 787 as Winging It, has long since believed, 2015 will become a separation point from its competitor in sales and delivery. 2015, will be a strong 787 order year with a reduction of backlog at the same time. 

Chart 7-2015-2:

The order book status remains higher than what it was during its first production year in 2011 even after 304 787's are delivered. 

Chart: 7-2015-3

Production Management is extremely pleased with a steady 90 day delivery pace of about 12, 787's each month. It indicates Boeing is serious with its goals of 12 787's a month, in-spite of any road blocks. It is achieving a difficult pace, which a competitor will find hard to duplicate in any circumstance. 

Chart: 7-2015-4

The 90 day moving average is a long term measure which adjusts the production flow over three months into one number. All road bumps during ninety days are smoothed into this number in Chart 4.

A 90 day moving average 11.667 units a month, says what will happen over time as Boeing delivers almost 12-787's a month pace, every month. Customers are loving this particular talking point. Any Customer sensitivity towards financial uncertainty, disrupts its own operations. It needs to know when its  aircraft will become ready for delivery, so it is ready to complete the 200 million dollar purchase with its operations, finances, and with its own flying customer's. The moving average of about 12 units a month has become the norm, and a customer will need to arrange with the bank for its next delivery at a specified time. Any customer now knows that it has to have a plan in place by having all its own moving parts from logistics to crew training at least planned one year ahead of a certain delivery date. However, this can frustrate Boeing also, when a customer meets its own bump in the road before delivery, as often is the case. The customer can gum up the Boeing production line with its own problems of not being ready or having financial goals met.

KC-46 Will Not Be Your Father's F-22 Procurement Debacle

Boeing is making serious moves in its demonstration for the DOD, why they choose Boeing wisely. What's at stake is not the KC-46 Pegasus program, but a genuine effort in preparation for the next Boeing bid. Part of that preparation is company integrity, leadership and delivery of mission accomplished. Boeing is stepping ahead of any avalanche coming down from on top of them during the KC-46 project.

Normally, writing about the KC-46 is a summer past time, but this is really an important change in corporate responsibility coming from Boeing. They really can't stand Airbus and its A-330 offering for a tanker. Scott Fancher, the company's head of development programs at Commercial Airplanes, is standing in the middle of the KC-46 program for one purpose, and one purpose only. Deliver the program on time exceeding all military expectations for this tanker.

This is the corporate specialist on board, and will be taking names and overseeing the program. Nobody is on the hot seat, yet! He is Boeing's point man for mission accomplished. Something important is going on in Boeing's scheme of military thing's and the KC-46 is the stepping stone to that import goal. Perhaps a sizable drone contract has an unannounced RFP in the formation, and Boeing wants to add a due diligence criteria coming from completing its KC-46 Pegasus mission, as on time and meeting all expectations.

Boeing Shuffles Leadership for Struggling KC-46 Program

By Aaron Mehta6:21 p.m. EDT July 30, 2015  Defense News

Make Flying Fun and Passengers Will Come.

An Airline Like Scoot has captured an inspired theme with its Yellow Gold livery. It has to compete with the Big Boys and Girls of the sky. By 2019 it will have Twenty 787 of both types supplanting its former fleet dichotomy.



Fly Scoot.Com starts the fun theme. Tech savvy customers see the nuance in the .com painted on the airline. The 375 seat 787-9 has a party theme of everybody is here for the party. The 335 passenger 787-8 seating theme, is about: "shush, don't tell anybody else, we're good". The party is started when the bright Yellow/Gold lands. Everyone not flying on Scoot notices the illuminated incursion on the flight line.

787-9 375 Seats

This isn't the first time Winging It has featured a Scoot photo or aircraft and it won't be the last time. I also had a hankering for Ethiopian's 787's, when it took off. What caught my eye is its livery that just looks like fun "E" ticket ride. Scoot is considering going west as far as London. It was or is, a small airline on the grand scheme of things. It's rubbing shoulders with the China barrage of options in the region. Qantas is also looking over its shoulders whether to order up 787-9's.

787-8 335 Seats

However, Scoot is making it possible for its plan now, with its handful of 787 in Scoot Livery. It looks fun flying Scoot. It turned my head in an airport full of Blue hued aircraft liveries sitting idol while waiting for passengers. I just wanted to fly on the Yellow-Gold Bird. I wanted to change my ticket to the yellow livery, and have a little fun. I'm an impulsive traveler. with a penchant for loyalty with what works. Yellow-Gold really works on my brain.

Over-stressing On 787 Occurances

From time to time something happens to the 787. For that matter from time something happens to every other Airplane model in existence. It may be metal fatigue or an anomaly found on its fight systems such as the A-330 found in a dicey situation flying over the Atlantic when it was lost coming out of Brazil to Paris. You may know it as Air France flight #442. Either way it was a disaster. Somehow every time a 787 gets a nick in the bonnet, it headlines and the doom and gloom come out to play with the 787.

Recently it was a hail storm on a 787: From Daily Mail

American Airlines' new Dreamliner jet was pummeled by hail, 'dropped hundreds of feet' and was forced to return to Beijing

·       Texas-bound Flight 88 carrying 209 passengers and a crew of 13 on board returned to Beijing after sustaining hail damage 44 minutes into the trip

·       American has seven Dreamliners, which carry a list price of $224.6million each 

·       Plane's fuselage and wings are made from carbon-fiber composite material instead of aluminum to reduce weight

·       Delta Air Lines Flight 159 from Detroit to Seoul, South Korea, had its nose badly battered by hail while flying over China in June 

Word Play headlines from “Forbes” conjures up this image:

American Airlines' 787 Dreamliner Nightmare

"American Airlines probably thought it was making the right move when it bought seven Boeing 787 Dreamliners. After all, as I noted in my book, You Can’t Order Change, the $166 million 250 to 330 seat aircraft was known for using 20% less fuel — thus the profits from filling them up would be higher.

But that was before American Airlines Flight 88 flew through a hailstorm outside of Beijing on July 27. The result was a punched-in nose that will keep the aircraft on the ground for now.

However, I think the Forbes opinion piece is hogwash over the nose cone. It can be replaced, it can be fixed, and it just happens as all in aircraft flights. The plastic model expects hail, sleet and Ice. It also plans on having bumps on the ground. So when that happens the news flow over to the doom and gloom committee for a thorough vetting. Wall Street is not grabbing its umbrella and jumping off the nearest bridge. Read the Forbes article if it even added anything of value before you leap to an untimely conclusion about the plastic airplane."

The maturation process of the 787 is a work in progress of its all new technology. It will fly under all conceivable conditions. It can be repaired with all conceivable damage. Note the Ethiopian 787 crown fire was a first time unknown on how to repair.  It flies on just the same. The American Airlines hail incident is a 787 bloody nose during a hail storm and not a night mare as dared click on the headline, where the reader expects doom and gloom.

EX-IM: The X's and Ohhh's Team Meeting

Boeing is the unwanted guest as the congressional table for funding the EX-IM; Vision: Give equal opportunity for world competitor's through gaining financial access to American trade good's, otherwise fair competition would not exist with the world's market place.

EX-IM Mission summary: Ex-Im Bank, an independent, self-sustaining federal agency, helps create and maintain U.S. jobs by filling gaps in export financing and strengthening U.S. export competitiveness. The Bank provides a variety of financing products, including working capital guarantees to help small and medium-sized U.S. businesses, export-credit insurance to protect against nonpayment by foreign buyers, and loan guarantees and direct loans to assist foreign buyers of U.S. goods and services.

Sounds reasonable, what's not to like? This was at the small business level featuring a discussion of how small business can grow from third world regions accessing US markets.

The EXIM vision Seminar  you must read it to discuss it. Otherwise forgetaboutit!!

The Congress has politicized this notion in a Frank Sinatra way by "Doing It My Way", lyrical rebuke, while not extending the EXIM in 2015. Boeing says, "these are our customers your talking about" "Kapeesh?" A liberal likes it and that's good enough for a conservative to say no! So Conservatives checked the vote for and against list twice and voted no more EXIM funding, just because, thinking is so hard when you are in congress.

Somewhere In The paper Work Is The 300th 787 Delivered

Boeing now has delivered the 300th 787 but today also marks the 302nd 787 delivered when just this early morning they showed only 297's on books, out of this afternoon's adjusted total of 302 units in customers hands. Yesterday the stock price  went up on the "corporate writing pens commodity", as the auto pen machine handled initials all over a ream of Boeing paper-work. Four 787's were delivered today, of which one of its number became the distinguished 300th 787 delivered.

July 26th:

Customer Name, Type,    delivery #

Air Canada      787-   9-         298

July 27th:
         
Etihad              787-  9-          ?
Vietnam           787-  9-          ?
ANA                787-  9-          ?
United              787-  9-          ?

THE USN DDG Fleet

Going old school isn't a bad thing. But not out pacing an adversary is a bad thing! China not technically an adversary nor is Russia, as both are gaining some high sea advantage as they try imposing dominance over the US Navy. China is building Islands and ships for the South China Sea, and Russia is finding its Mojo again with a submarine Navy. The USN finds itself in the maelstrom of international intent once again. The DDG class Arleigh-Burke is the USN sword. Its Ohio class Nuclear Subs is the boot on any adversarial nation's neck.

Since the DDG Zumwalt withdrawal, by stopping at three of its stealthy types, the retrofitted Arleigh-Burke bears the load of primary naval surface defense and offense. Aircraft Carriers are floating airports and DDG (destroyers) are a fighting Blue water surface vessel, or a misbehaving littoral combat incursion. Its very significance for our Navy cannot be overlooked. Nor can the Navy under appreciate its importance by letting it rust until a scheduled retirement. The older generation DDG framework is being built fresh today for renewing the fleet. First one up: 

May 2, 2015 The John Finn Is Christened 

Here are 10 things to know about the future USS John Finn and her namesake:

John William Finn

1. The future USS John Finn is the 63rd Arleigh Burke class destroyer, and the first of the DDG 51 Flight IIA restart ships.

2. The destroyer was named in honor of Lt. John William Finn, who as a Chief Petty Officer served at Naval Air Station Kanoehe Bay, Oahu, Territory of Hawaii on Dec. 7, 1941 during the Japanese air raid that struck that facility and others on Oahu.

3.  While under heavy machine gun fire, chief aviation ordnanceman Finn manned a .50-caliber machinegun mounted on an instruction stand in a completely exposed section of the parking ramp.  Painfully wounded multiple times, he had to be convinced to leave his post.  After receiving first aid treatment, he overcame the severe pain of his injuries and returned to the squadron area to supervise the rearming of returning planes. 

4. DDG 113 will be capable of engaging in air, surface and subsurface battles simultaneously and will contain a myriad of offensive and defensive weapons designed to support maritime warfare including Integrated Air and Missile Defense capabilities.

5. DDG 113 will be equipped with the Navy’s Aegis Combat System, the world’s foremost integrated naval weapons system.

6. At age 100, Finn was the oldest surviving recipient of the nation’s highest medal for valor and the only recipient still alive among those who received the medal for actions during the attack of Dec. 7, 1941.

PEARL HARBOR, Hawaii (Dec. 12, 2007) Medal of Honor recipient Lt. John Finn (Ret.) pays his respects to the Sailors and Marines killed aboard USS Arizona during the Dec. 7, 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor.

 7. In June 1942, Finn was temporarily commissioned as an Ensign, rising in rank to Lieutenant two years later.

8.  USS John Finn will be able to conduct a variety of operations, from peacetime presence and crisis management to sea control and power projection.

9. John William Finn passed away on May 27, 2010.

10. As part of the DDG 51 Flight IIA ships, Finn will provide increased capabilities over previous flights of Arleigh Burke destroyers, including advances in anti-submarine warfare, command and control, and anti-surface warfare.

By starting with DDG 51 and going consecutively through #119, consider each subsequent build an improvement over the prior number. The US Navy is on version #119. Version #51 is retrofitted on a decade to decade progression until its retirement.

Flight IIA: Restart
John Finn	DDG-113	Ingalls Shipbuilding	28 March 2015[67]			Launched
Ralph Johnson	DDG-114	Ingalls Shipbuilding				Keel laid[68]
Rafael Peralta	DDG-115	Bath Iron Works				Keel laid[69]
Flight IIA: Technology Insertion
Thomas Hudner	DDG-116	Bath Iron Works				Keel Laid
Paul Ignatius	DDG-117	Ingalls Shipbuilding				Keel Laid[70]
Daniel Inouye	DDG-118	Bath Iron Works				Keel Laid[71]
Delbert D. Black	DDG-119	Ingalls Shipbuilding				Keel Laid[72]
	DDG-120	Bath Iron Works				Contract awarded (MYP)
	DDG-121	Ingalls Shipbuilding				Contract awarded (MYP)
	DDG-122	Bath Iron Works				Contract awarded (MYP)
	DDG-123	Ingalls Shipbuilding				Contract awarded (MYP)
Flight III
	DDG-124	Bath Iron Works				Contract awarded (MYP)
	DDG-125	Ingalls Shipbuilding				Contract awarded (MYP)
	DDG-126	Bath Iron Works				Contract awarded (MYP

Wikipedia Chart

At left, the hull of the Michael Monsoor (DDG 1001), second ship in the class, is coming together. At right is the Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), first of the latest batch of Arleigh Burke DDG 51-class destroyers under construction at Bath. Similar ships are built in Mississippi at Ingalls Shipbuilding.

The DDG51 Realm of Battle is "pretty" (nasty)

Aegis-class destroyer USS Hopper (DDG-70) launches a standard missile (SM) 3 Blk IA during a 2009 exercise. US Navy Photo

So, DDG119 should be something special! However, the DDG 1000 is something featured on Winging It, because it’s so advanced like the 787, it can't bear comparison with  "another" Navy, because even comparing a status quo DDG family member is even incomparable with the DDG1000. The stuff DDG1000 has, won't exist on the newest DDG119. 

In fact some other temperamental Navy's across the oceanic broad expanse, may attempt to keep up with the US Navy's Delbert D. Black DDG119 just laid keel. The pivot to the Orient is in a ship yard near you.

Its DDG 119 Keel Laying Day, about July 21, 2015 

Below: DDG 115 Artists Rendering

What was said About the DDG115, at its Ceremonial  Start: "“While this keel-laying marks an important step in our construction process, we are focused today in welcoming the Peralta as the newest members of our Bath Iron Works family. Mrs. Peralta, Karen and Icela, we are honored to have you here, and stand in deep appreciation of your son and brother’s ultimate service to our nation,” Kenyon said. “Over the coming months, we will continue to build the Rafael Peralta with knowledge and expertise honed over the decades. She will be a true and steady vessel and will reflect the spirit of her namesake.”

The DDG 119 will advance the "Peralta, DDG115" by tweaking lessons learned during Peralta's build process, and as it installs the newest proven advances in military systems since earlier DDG51. The DDG119 will rule for another 20 years. It's a "concurrency only within its step progression" coming from prior builds, and developed by time for its systems. It's not a concurrency testing model sitting confused during an ongoing ship build. Its pure deep Blue water, even while the Navy's builder's floats another stop loss program. Such as the DDG1000 series, failed attempt from its own continuous upgrading and military do-overs imposed. Its continuous money flow for spending has now stopped on with this new DDG ship series at three ships.

Note: the DDG1000 series is a long term 4.6 Billion dollar build scope with a stop loss impounding it. It then becomes a true Taxpayer money pit not serving the nation well at this time! The Zumwalt Cookie cutter productions are just another ten years away for the DDG1000 family, at which time the Arleigh-Burke, becomes more of a needed spear handle than the Spear Point, in its assigned warfare battle scope, The Zumwalt class, also becomes the next "Pretty (nasty)".

Always improving model is admirable, and should be "always part of the plan", from a ship's dock cradle to the scrap-metal program. However, "the always tinkering model" is also madness in the shop. A war starts at 3:00 AM, and not the three years down the road of tinkering, as allowed under "always tinkering" program of concurrency, or after its sea trial completion with a, "it's still unreliable underneath its tinkering rating”. War is today and yesterday, not when a DDG model could be readied for combat during the next eighteen months of war? The DDG51's is ready at this time and its still very good, and it's comfortably the best today, and ready for Yesterday around the world!

This is why the Navy wisely steps back into the Arleigh -Burke era with the newest proven systems. Where 99% of the world's nations can't match it. It's keeping smartly ahead of all potential adversarial Navies. The current DDG has some lethal secrets yet deployed.  

Here is what the Navy Hints at on the next 14 DDG51's, #113-#123. While going further with its Flight III block point build found in #124-#126, as currently funded. 

"The Navy plans to introduce the first DDG 51 Flight III on the second ship in FY 2016. Once Flight III requirements are approved, the new baseline will be implemented as an engineering change proposal. It is anticipated that the Flight III design will replace 

• the Aegis AN/SPY-1D radar with the Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR),
• and provide for more electrical power and cooling capacity, 
• providing the next generation of integrated air and missile defense 
• and joint battle space awareness."

After Shock Section:

Ingalls Shipbuilding Launches First Ship Since Destroyer Program Restart

By: Megan Eckstein

March 30, 2015 2:26 PM • Updated: March 30, 2015 3:08 PM

"Ingalls Shipbuilding launched the first destroyer in four years at its yard in Pascagoula, Miss., on Saturday, marking the return of the ship class after being stopped and then restarted.

John Finn (DDG-113) is the 63rd Arleigh Burke-class (DDG-51) destroyer and the first of the Flight IIA restart ships being built by Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) and General Dynamics Bath Iron Works (BIW).

“This is the first DDG-51 class ship to launch in almost four years, and we’re both proud and excited with the progress the program is making,” DDG-51 program manager Capt. Mark Vandroff said in a Navy statement.
“I look forward to John Finn joining the fleet and the other ships of her class to continue in the legacy of success that is the Arleigh Burke destroyer.”

"The Navy decided in July 2008 to restart the DDG-51 production line and limit the newer DDG-1000 ship class to only three ships. As a Flight IIA destroyer, the ship will be outfitted with the Aegis Combat System and engage in air, undersea and surface warfare and ballistic missile defense. Beginning in Fiscal Year 2016, the Navy will upgrade the ships to a Flight III configuration, which will include the Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR).

The Navy needs this ship, even if it is in order to pull one DDG51, into an off duty status for upgrading it, making it advanced just like this new John Finn will soon sail with the newest advanced installations.  

What Does 767 FEDex Order Do For Boeing's 767 Military Industrial Complex

Fedex came into a 50 plus 50 plus and another 56 on order this week. All of them, 767's, not yet built.

• 56 Ordered originally not yet built
• 50 just ordered not yet built
• 50 on option if it wants more at a frozen price.

In total 156 potential 767 has just fueled Boeing's industrial complex. It will take another fifteen years of 767 production just on the Fedex side of production. In the meantime 179 KC-46 tankers are yet to be built by Boeing, you know it as the frame from the 767 with 787 avionics. I would think the next 767's for Fedex will have 787 Avionics.

Another point in all this excitement, is time itself. Give the military another ten years, and they could come up with additional uses on the 767 frame. A dedicated cargo hauler, troop hauler, or a battlefield command center. Not only including installing AWACS capability it could be an airborne drone management and command center. The 767 could launch 100 missiles during a conflict before having to reload. Is could be a missile magazine in the sky with 10 circular missile magazines auto loading and sending ten guided missiles per missile magazine out of  a belly shooter from the 767 frame.  All this is done at Mach .85 or about a closing speed of 550 NM/hr while shooting a 2,000 mile an hour missiles at any and every target found within a hundred mile circle from the 767.

In this military fantasy there would be a crew on deck at multiple display stations or on the ground signaling the flying 767 via satellite, executing target guidance. Or launching flying drones to its field of operation during the duration of a mission. Drone recovery could be both at pre positioned sea bases or land base. The high ground launch extends the drone efficiency 

I am only just getting started with 767 ideas since it will keep producing until 2030. The military should warm up its "idea people too". The 767 will carry what is needed even if re-engined in the next reiteration of tanker platform, as it becomes a purpose built heavy duty support platform that can fly 5,000 NM.  It could be the first off shore missile bomber built.

The 767 is hard core.

Scoot Has Started Its Own Purge Line With The 787

Clear from Boeing's 787 Surge line out of Everett's Mega Building, Scoot Airlines has started its own Purge Line. It is administering a holistic approach, by replacing each of its family of existing larger aircraft with an exclusivity for Boeing 787 models. They are taking in one 787 a month since the first of the year in 2015. July, Scoot received its first 787-8, the smaller of the two currently available Boeing models. It has already received five 787-9's.






The last 777-200  Scoot operates will go away by late August 2015, while more 787 are on the way. The surge/purge will result in a total of Ten 787-9's, and Ten 787-8's, as the company expands by becoming an all 787 fleet of twenty. This purging of the old inventory, and its 787 expansion will represent a first with what the 787 model can do for a business plan in total. Boeing's marketing talking points can use Scoot's 2016 financial results, having a true picture what the all 787 fleet does to an Airline's Bottom line.

Budget Airlines beware, Scoot has your number.

Like The 787, The DDG Zumwalt Has Teething Problems

The DDG 1000 stalls "the works" or as insiders call it,  "Teething woes". Sounds familiar to Boeing's own transition from 20th century to 21st century technology, as it had processed with the 787 project. The 787 "Teething Woes" were a headline feature from 2007-2013. A five year maturation process before customers exhaled. The Zumwalt is now welcomed into the BIW fold of "Teething Woes" and Boeing's exclusive club.  

Report: Zumwalt 'Teething Problems' Affecting BIW's Competitiveness

While Bath Iron Works remains tasked with some 20th century Burke class Destroyers, or the DDG51's and above group, it is also bogged down with the Zumwalt class destroyer as pictured. A whole new evolution of technology is stuffed on-board the Zumwalt. This dock side appearance represents thousands of resources expended on its existence. The BIW was awarded the bid for many more, then it was cut by the Navy, down to three of its types, as costs rose on the project. BIW was hooked and landed by the Navy. DOD made a pivot towards the 1990's Arleigh Burke Class destroyer, back filling its ranks and sustaining the Navy's fleet renewal program.

Since BIW immense resources are tied to a changed Zumwalt program, which was recently dead-ended, it finds itself losing out to competitors from Mississippi during the Zumwalt gridlock. The Navy is a fickle mistress with flighty aspirations.

BIW thought all along, it was the premier ship builder worthy of the Zumwalt assignment. The too pricey project was served by Congressional slights in a down size resolution. The Mississippi ship builders gleefully picks up where BIW stalled with the Navy's closure on the Zumwalt three.

UPI:

"Our shipbuilders are very excited about beginning the fabrication process of another DDG 51 destroyer, especially one named after the first Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy," said George Nungesser, Ingalls' DDG 51 program manager. "Serial production provides the most effective and efficient way to build ships, and this is our fourth ship started in three years." 

Ima Black reacts after starting a plasma cutter machine at Ingalls Shipbuilding, officially beginning construction of the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer Delbert D. Black (DDG 119), which is named in honor of her late husband. Photo by Andrew Young/Huntington Ingalls Industries.