787 Quarter By The Early Numbers

June 30th  is the quarter completed. June is the halfway point for 2015. June has busted out all over as Rogers and Hammerstein would sing it out. Boeing loves it when a plane comes together. The plan was set along time ago but the plane had to be built, so hear it is stock junkies. Its a grand plane, erh plan. The 90 day measuring stick calls out 34 in a 11.3 x 11.3 x 11.3 cadence for the quarter. A few trendy rises with a soft crescendo by quarters end. Its a Vivaldi a concert of the four seasons as we move to  Summer! 

Summer is now, the second quarter is spent.

The Delivery strength in the second quarter showed the 787-9 gaining momentum as it gains orders. More of both are on the way when considering orders and delivery slots. Vivaldi jumps over this Idea with its second quarter spring excellence;

The autumn is the strength of the 787 program as shown in the the chart below at end of second quarter.

Winter will wrap up another good or excellent year as it crystallizes the program for a solid for its customers. The numbers won't lie as to who has the real edge.

Final numbers are rushed towards the end  of December, in a surprised cadence over its competitors. Boeing stays playing-on, much the delight of its customers, who gain flight from its flowing wings. The year will end as "well played" by a virtuoso, and its team of collaborators making, the 787 the "Four Seasons", A Timeless Aircraft.

Time marches on, as we have a grand start to this year's end, while showing the 2nd quarter 787 numbers. You may read these charts during a work break. No one will fault you for listening to Vivaldi. They will think you are working like a surgeon, and you are working with Boeing's precision like concertos called the 787.

* Works In Process Year

Credits: Vivaldi Boston Symphony, All Things 787, Boeing.com and various tracking data sources.

Now Crescendo Winging It

The Carbon War Is Here To Stay

Carbon is a natural element on our planet. It is a very important element which controls the habitability of this planet. We are all prisoners on the planet much like the passengers on a cruise ship. The atmosphere is only so thick. The land can only absorb so much carbon. Permafrost regions of the earth store immense amounts of carbon until it releases during warming trends. A warming trend begins when additional carbon is present without any abatement of its impact in the atmosphere. A vicious planetary heating cycle starts when added carbon into the planet's eco system cannot be absorbed by its natural processes. In fact the earth loses its ability to store carbon as it warms from more atmospheric carbon content. The thin blue line protecting us from above, is no thicker than a sheet of  tissue paper wrapped around a basketball when comparing the earths size to its protective atmospheric layer.



Virgin Airlines takes carbon seriously. It has made it an objective of reducing its carbon footprint by 30%. Several factors counter this intent. One is the airplane traffic growth, which will quickly overwhelm Virgin's noble stand. Number 2 is the condition where other airlines continue with a flood of older equipment, while nullifying other airlines effort to reduce its carbon emissions. The problem of carbon emission is here to stay. Taxing the carbon emissions footprint is foolish idea, when there isn't a solution yet.  However, making steps of reducing carbon through upgraded equipment is a phase airlines must take. The expansion of air travel has a finite boundary on the planet, and commerce cannot assume infinite growth for its flying customers as a constant.

Virgin Atlantic Reports Carbon and Noise Reductions

Recent advances in engine technology and carbon emissions is only the first step, out of many more to come, in order to balance the planet's ability to absorb carbon within its natural cycles. Otherwise we just will get hotter, then burn more electricity on air conditioning, and make more carbon. The top down solution of protecting the atmosphere first is the best start for a solution.

Having more atmospheric carbon suspended absorbs more sunlight and heats us up, They call it green house gasses. Having too little carbon freezes the planet. The planet has a fine balance for humans, and I am not even an environmentalist when saying so. We now have a problem of making our own suffocating hot box from the top down.

The future of flight may become imperiled by these actual carbon progressions. Richard Branson gets It! Virgin Airlines is trying to show the way we can survive, and travel in the air. We, as a population of flyers, can stay airborne longer into the future if all of us recognize every contrail overhead is atmospheric loading of carbon  (green house) gasses. There maybe limits someday, of how many airplanes can exist along with the other carbon loading functions from industry.

Fracking The Aviation Market

Fracking is a term used for extracting deep oil deposits in well establish rock formation holding an oil reserve. A drill path goes down through to the rock layer, makes a hard turn into the horizontal layer, and then exploits the layered strata with explosions releasing the oil.

The world is divided into two major aviation framers, Boeing and Airbus. The aviation strata Boeing needs to exploit, is Airbus' cadre of customers. Entrenched in hard layers are duration of time familiarity, training cost, and operational convenience. Boeing has breached operational efficiency in the market place, but lacks a fracking technique which would dislodge Airbus customers pumped up by Boeing and vice-versa for Airbus.

The Aviation market grows more fixed than flexible out of billions required for making a change to another frame maker. Qatar has chosen the cream of both framers' crop for its offering. It went with the more is better for installing fixtures in a Qatar aircraft, going Airbus in numbers and Boeing for class type.  The Boeing 737 is the exclusive market model for Southwest Airlines, a mid-sized footprint in the world of travel.

Can an all Airbus Fleet be fracked? The answer is hoped for in this introduction on a fixed market vs a flexible market. A fixed market customer is someone like SouthWest Airlines. A flexible market is the Qatar example even though it’s leaning towards Airbus at this time as it loves the 787 in its fleet.

Fracking the market has its best results during a fleet renewal period.

Every time an aircraft becomes obsolete through time and use an airline needs an explosion changing its preference. An Airbus A320 NEO quickly filled the opportunity gap for its existing customers. Yes, Boeing hesitated, because of the 787 capital outlay in 2010. Boeing didn't frack the Airbus Market five years ago, and it is now paying for it with Airbus Sedimentary customers. The question is pushed forward to the year 2030. The next great fracking will occur in the single aisle market place. Who comes first will lead the way. Boeing must revolutionize the single Aisle Market by 2030. It will frack Airbus sideways unless they counter offer ahead of Boeing.

The developmental pushing and shoving has just started. The A-320 NEO is a placeholder as the name implies. The 737 MAX is a stop gap name as it also implies. Both are adequate, and both fell victim to money spent on other projects first.

In 2030 the airplane words should be a dedication to the single aisle renaissance!

Plastic and engines added to less drag will frack the competitor immensely, releasing its valued customers to the winning framer. Boeing has to plan now for the next paradigm shift.

Opportunity replaces the fear of not doing anything. The new Boeing CEO has his objectives in view long before this is written. In short today's offering is a follow-up to yesterday's ramblings. Boeing is in good hands as it has the best team.

Will The Melting Pot Of Boeing Risk Scald Profitabilty

Day two of CEO change management reveals the ugly risks bubbling in Boeing's over arching pot. Risk chips are tossed in quickly before stirring.

• EXIM banking chip dissolves in the vat.
• Labor Relation Uncertainty Chip
• Where Boeing Will Pivot its Chips After McNerney (A.M.) (aka Another Manager)
• Beyond The Dream comes another risk Chip
• Risk Chip of Not Doing Anything and remaining in a status quot state
• Euro Vs The US Dollar Table Chips

Dennis Muilenburg, the new (D.M.), (aka Different Manager)

A chip is not made from a potato, but it is what risk feeds on in a vat of actions a company must take on, so said company stays relevant and survives. The DM must only avert risk when it becomes an unseen condition which can sink the ship. The apparent risk, or what is seen. is what other managers must deal with and avert during their tenure on the company's deck. The DM is informed in a timely manner of seen risks from the crew on deck.

I just love story telling to make a point about complex matters. DM replaces AM in this time change environment. The ground hog is not involved in this matter. AM is the critical mass event reaching Boeing's vulnerability state for all its stake holders. However, DM is a well placed exchange of Ideas coming after AM, and then going through to the next level. Boeing has answers through succession planning, causing a mitigation of any transition nightmares. The real risks is losing its mojo for the future in its "what's next" scenario.

Next is finding the 747-8i  niche location.
Next includes succession planning for all aircraft types, and especially going from from single aisle to a new class of airplane.

Boeing must decide how far they are willing to go in the plastic arena. Boeing must leverage its concepts coming from the likes of blended Wing Bodies. DM must make a decision by 2025 on whether they can leap frog Airbus once more by doing something only Boeing can do. Boeing must have a continuous change philosophy installed or a creed for exceeding anything competitors can evolve from the competitor's R&D. Winning is doing new projects under five years when DM's first shoe drops from an innovation happening.

DM is looking to make sense and then make billions while making sense. Boeing becomes the ultimate video game where only one player can win while playing with its teams online. DM is that video game master. All the other players have roles too, but his is to win! His office now becomes the game stick and console, in a rapidly moving action theme with everything coming at him in no particular order. DM, Its game on!

McNerney Finishes The Last Great Job

The rule of industry is that: every newly appointed CEO has been given a notice of their own future job loss. Once accepting a position as the company's head mentor, the CEO has only five to seven years for feathering its nest before getting out. A CEO must return the company in better condition than when assigned their final position. Boeing's CEO is now leaving at age 65 this next July of 2015. He has made it through the industry gauntlet through keeping faith in Boeing's ability. He has made change when identified, and stayed the course out of his faith with his top to bottom vision. When McNerney starts looking from the top, he will expect to see the CEO's will on the production floor, or at the recent Paris Air Show, and from the gleam coming out of customer’s eyes when taking delivery of a Boeing product from its various plants. That is a snapshot of Jim McNerney's Boeing life cycle coming to an end.

Photo Credit Fitsnews via Alencontre.org-(A Marxist Rag quoting about McNerney "makes more than he pays in Taxes", Duh!)

“The heart will still be beating, the employees will still be cowering, I’ll be working hard,” McNerney said, according to Bloomberg News . “There’s no end in sight. We’re continuing to build a succession plan and alternatives to succeed me eventually, but there’s no discussion of it yet.”

McNerney's tenure was not without some mishap or having to backtrack the processes a few times. Boeing's want of a better way and better results superseded any CEO decision-making. McNerney played the hand dealt him within the constraints coming from all elements found in the World's largest airplane maker's realm. McNerney survived as did Boeing. Sometimes survival is having a victory over its main competitor. The battle will not cease for Boeing, and today the Next CEO is up. Congratulations Jim, Your picture will hang prominently in the Boeing Castle. Staying on top for ten years is a wow factor in any industry.

The next CEO up was notified of his last job is starting soon.

Bloomberg Business:

"Boeing Co.’s Dennis Muilenburg becomes chief executive officer next week with a to-do list of decisions that could reshape the world’s largest plane maker."



The 51 year old wants to leave Boeing in better shape than he finds it today. Boeing regained its title as the world's largest aircraft framer after Boeing lost that distinction about five to Seven years back. It has become the World's largest once more, and it represents superior production quantity and superior marketing results. Airbus is seriously challenging Boeing's market arm during the last three years in the single aisle division. However, the wide body division has greater dollar value in sales than Airbus' own single aisle transactions.Wide bodies have made Boeing the king of manufacturing at multiple levels of its production and its over-all cash inflows are recognized as its strength.

Muilenberg, is tasking Boeing's hot button issues first, as he begins riding the aviation Bull. Sikorsky is one of his first plays of involvement in a take-over consideration.

His short list of questions, which is made up from pressing the issue button, that must be accomplished by Boeing in his first five years.

1. Is the continuity of going from 777-300-ER up to 777X, set?
2. Is a 757 replacement necessary for Boeing even just for the sake of aircraft family completeness?
3. What to do with the 747-800 program and where does Boeing Go Next!?
4. How much military does Boeing want to involve itself in?
5. If I'm a done CEO before 2030, what will I have accomplished for the next team up?

The list of urgency is far longer than what this new CEO has previewed in private, as Dennis Muilenberg.  The former CEO, McNerney, did his best, and now will have a distinguished role as a Boeing mentor to the new CEO for a couple of years. Boeing blossomed during this last decade, as a once again World's Largest event. Dennis must now take the company further with its established technology, and not rest on the millennial's coattails, or they will once again see the late 1990's again as Airbus attempts a surge over Boeing's production acumen. 

Ethiopia beating the economic odds

Posted on Monday, 22 June 2015 16:14

The Ethiopian 787 Journal Flows to its Profits

Ethiopia beating the economic odds <<Link

"The aviation story is different. Ethiopia's geographic location and the success of its national airline give it easy access to many global markets.

Ethiopian Airlines flies passengers to 83 international destinations, 49 of them in Africa, and hauls cargo to 24 cities around the globe. It is Africa's fastest growing and most profitable passenger and cargo carrier.

Three years ago, the state-owned but privately-managed airline became the second carrier outside Japan to operate the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, a state-of-the-art passenger jet."

Winging It Predicted this as a feature company back in 2011 and then in 2013.

Winging IT August 2013

"After reading this old Winging It link on LiftnDrag blog, the article goes on to state watch Ethiopian Airlines, because they are best positioned to take advantage  of the 787 on its long legged routes. Little did I know, they would have one 787 catch on fire at London Heathrow, and benched it indefinitely until a resolution is found, or did I know they they would increase its profitability by 178%, and recognize the 787 directly affecting the bottom line by so much! Even with its older aircraft inventory in play everyday. If it sounds like crowing, then so be it, its crowing a little. I can't help but get a little excited on a long shot Airlines on a winning horse, The 787."

Winging It December 11, 2011

"Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

Areoflot's 22 DreamLiner Order Going to The Boeing Laundry

Not so fast my friend. The 22 Aeroflot cancelled Dreamliners from Paris are now being discussed with a Boeing plan in mind. Aeroflot said, "Nyet' at Paris. Boeing said, "wait just a darn moment my friends". "Putin Doesn't have the coin of the realm like we do."

Boeing ready to help Aeroflot with Dreamliner contract

Boeing is prepared to help Aeroflot - Russian Airlines resolve the issue of a contract to supply 22 Boeing 787 Dreamliner airliners, Sergei Kravchenko, Boeing's Russia and CIS President, told reporters at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.



Boeing does not want to give Airbus orderbook bragging point and will try a very lucrative financial packaging for AeroFlot. 

Selling Points Played For AeroFlot

• Buy 22 787 get one free coupon.
• Frozen Exchange rate for the Ruble at any delivery date/time before 2024
• In House Boeing Finance from Boeing General Acceptance Corporation BGAC
• First Time Buyer Cash Back 787 Program Incentive
• Free access to Boeing's Flying Maintenance Circus BFMC. Aeroflot Fly's it away we come and fix it any time, anywhere and in anyway special.
• First Tank of Fuel free to fly it home. 

Winging IT With "Jethro's Bodine", Paris Orders On The Table, Ciphered

Accounting Note:
Boeing has book numbers on its Boeing.com. Confusing as they present it, since my numbers don't reconcile, I have presented one last time a snap shop from press reports. My bad! However, I wanted to bring clarity to the issue of money in play from purchases to options tabled. The categories are self explanatory. The money are optimum book numbers and don't represent signed on values only an advertised list price. Even though I keep posting Paris numbers, the silly changes are interpretations coming from many sources, so it becomes who said what issues. Even though I made a good faith effort to round up a correct summary, it becomes a close accounting call, depending on what method. Boeing may have couched the show numbers. Here are my numbers which will be fleshed out by the end of the year. On to Dubai with more wide bodies in play. Boeing's body-of-work for 2015 is the final indicator for whose boss in 2015. Winging says Boeing Production wins and Orders remain a ? mark but will be close. Only the final dollar count will be the actual tie breaker in 2015.

It's Innovation Stupid

Boeing slipped up and showed Airbus its strategy at the Paris Airshow. Boeing innovation at full bloom. Hewlett-Packard once had the "Innovate" Vision. It worked and worked then came Carli Fiorina and change the logo from "Invent". Its an urban legend, and it reads well, so I added it to this blog story. However, Airbus was just as impressed with the Vietnam Airline 787-9 Show as were the Parisians attending. Boeing out innovated Airbus at this show. Boeing will continue out innovate Airbus for some time to come. Airplane Customers are starting to get It! The Moses Lake "air adventure", you know before the Paris Airshow video, was filmed at three different angles using a You Tube innovation.

You Tube Choose Your View

Innovation strikes at the heart of the Boeing 787 program and its beginning to show. Even at the Paris Airshow it showed by out innovating Airbus. The Vietnam Airlines 787-9 went up, down, and around in spectacular fashion. During the Moses Lake practice Boeing partnered with You Tube with three camera angles of the famous 787-9 practice run (see link above). Innovation is seeping into the travelers awareness from Boeing's 787 with 11 million Youtube and news views in one week with just a practice run of "Boeing's Innovation 787 Moment".

Boeing Innovation is the subliminal nuance in every 787 flight. It winning over passengers and airline customers without cognizant recognition with a steady stream of smiling and pleased passengers, who don't even know why they are smiling when they arrive at their destination. Remember they breathed fresh air without the taint of Jet A fumes. Other new airplanes, like the A-350 can't claim that nuance or innovation.  Airbus hasn't mastered what Boeing has mastered.

Another subliminal innovation with the 787 is found in its wings, computers and actuators. The ride over the Rocky Mountains is smooth with nary a bump in your napping. The systems detect rough air and automatically adjusts wing trim making smoother flight while colliding with nasty wind chops at 550 MPH. The passengers didn't notice the subliminal innovation only to note it seems the 787 airplanes always fly routes with the best weather, and other airlines seem to always fly in rougher air.

Boeing innovated with slick air. What the heck is "slick air"? It comes from a laminar flow technology of which you will not notice boarding a 787-9. Leading edges on some flight surfaces took its golf game to new heights. The dimples found on golf balls made their way on Boeing wings in a patented formation. The Airbus A-350 hasn't got there yet, but now they need to do it the old fashioned way through copy right infringement methodology. Laminar flow makes wind sliding by the lifting surface, non abrasive, and reduces significant drag and fuel burn. That's why a passenger will fly from Australia with 300 friends to Dallas, TX, or somewhere in South America just because they can with Boeing's innovation, which they are not probably aware of yet.

Noise is not the issue with Boeing, since its innovation is built into the 787 frame. The A-380 is noted for its quiet manners because passenger are mostly removed from the source of engine noise and moving parts. Its just that big you don't hear what's going on downstairs or two blocks behind the noise. Airbus did a great job of isolating its passenger from sources of noise. Having said that politely, I move to the 787 where they do not have the luxury of separating passengers by distance from the noise, so they had to stop making noise in the first place. First came the engines noise that had to be knocked down by many decibels by multiple innovations. The engine inlet cowling was redesign and chevrons at the back of engine cowling was an added as sound deadening innovation. GE and Rolls developed Plastics in the fan blades, dampening engine decibels. The multiple innovations from frame builder and engine builder gave passengers quiet conversations again without every passenger hearing any loud conversations. It became another subliminal feature born out Boeing and its partners of innovations.

Fresh Air, smooth ride, and quiet comfort are all brought about uniquely, from Boeing's innovation closet. Going farther on tank of fuel and then maintaining the aircraft from its airborne systems and reporting, keeps your time at the airport at a 99% better level of performance worldwide. When you view the 787-9 Paris Airshow practice video, Its all about the innovation Airbus couldn't touch at the show. People are starting to get it. Boeing is about making it best. Passengers just want to get to their destination smiling without realizing why.

Unofficial Paris Recap Of Boeing Dollars

A quick and dirty number crunch for your reading consumption. Many publications have come out with a variety of numbers. However, my numbers are more carefully, tallied, considered and propagated to the most accurate conclusion anyone west of the bagel stand can cipher. Jethro Bodine (Jed, Beverley Hillbillies fame's nephew). Here are Jethro's numbers cipher through digital manipulation based on his ten digit ciphering.