Will The Melting Pot Of Boeing Risk Scald Profitabilty

Day two of CEO change management reveals the ugly risks bubbling in Boeing's over arching pot. Risk chips are tossed in quickly before stirring.

• EXIM banking chip dissolves in the vat.
• Labor Relation Uncertainty Chip
• Where Boeing Will Pivot its Chips After McNerney (A.M.) (aka Another Manager)
• Beyond The Dream comes another risk Chip
• Risk Chip of Not Doing Anything and remaining in a status quot state
• Euro Vs The US Dollar Table Chips

Dennis Muilenburg, the new (D.M.), (aka Different Manager)

A chip is not made from a potato, but it is what risk feeds on in a vat of actions a company must take on, so said company stays relevant and survives. The DM must only avert risk when it becomes an unseen condition which can sink the ship. The apparent risk, or what is seen. is what other managers must deal with and avert during their tenure on the company's deck. The DM is informed in a timely manner of seen risks from the crew on deck.

I just love story telling to make a point about complex matters. DM replaces AM in this time change environment. The ground hog is not involved in this matter. AM is the critical mass event reaching Boeing's vulnerability state for all its stake holders. However, DM is a well placed exchange of Ideas coming after AM, and then going through to the next level. Boeing has answers through succession planning, causing a mitigation of any transition nightmares. The real risks is losing its mojo for the future in its "what's next" scenario.

Next is finding the 747-8i  niche location.
Next includes succession planning for all aircraft types, and especially going from from single aisle to a new class of airplane.

Boeing must decide how far they are willing to go in the plastic arena. Boeing must leverage its concepts coming from the likes of blended Wing Bodies. DM must make a decision by 2025 on whether they can leap frog Airbus once more by doing something only Boeing can do. Boeing must have a continuous change philosophy installed or a creed for exceeding anything competitors can evolve from the competitor's R&D. Winning is doing new projects under five years when DM's first shoe drops from an innovation happening.

DM is looking to make sense and then make billions while making sense. Boeing becomes the ultimate video game where only one player can win while playing with its teams online. DM is that video game master. All the other players have roles too, but his is to win! His office now becomes the game stick and console, in a rapidly moving action theme with everything coming at him in no particular order. DM, Its game on!

McNerney Finishes The Last Great Job

The rule of industry is that: every newly appointed CEO has been given a notice of their own future job loss. Once accepting a position as the company's head mentor, the CEO has only five to seven years for feathering its nest before getting out. A CEO must return the company in better condition than when assigned their final position. Boeing's CEO is now leaving at age 65 this next July of 2015. He has made it through the industry gauntlet through keeping faith in Boeing's ability. He has made change when identified, and stayed the course out of his faith with his top to bottom vision. When McNerney starts looking from the top, he will expect to see the CEO's will on the production floor, or at the recent Paris Air Show, and from the gleam coming out of customer’s eyes when taking delivery of a Boeing product from its various plants. That is a snapshot of Jim McNerney's Boeing life cycle coming to an end.

Photo Credit Fitsnews via Alencontre.org-(A Marxist Rag quoting about McNerney "makes more than he pays in Taxes", Duh!)

“The heart will still be beating, the employees will still be cowering, I’ll be working hard,” McNerney said, according to Bloomberg News . “There’s no end in sight. We’re continuing to build a succession plan and alternatives to succeed me eventually, but there’s no discussion of it yet.”

McNerney's tenure was not without some mishap or having to backtrack the processes a few times. Boeing's want of a better way and better results superseded any CEO decision-making. McNerney played the hand dealt him within the constraints coming from all elements found in the World's largest airplane maker's realm. McNerney survived as did Boeing. Sometimes survival is having a victory over its main competitor. The battle will not cease for Boeing, and today the Next CEO is up. Congratulations Jim, Your picture will hang prominently in the Boeing Castle. Staying on top for ten years is a wow factor in any industry.

The next CEO up was notified of his last job is starting soon.

Bloomberg Business:

"Boeing Co.’s Dennis Muilenburg becomes chief executive officer next week with a to-do list of decisions that could reshape the world’s largest plane maker."



The 51 year old wants to leave Boeing in better shape than he finds it today. Boeing regained its title as the world's largest aircraft framer after Boeing lost that distinction about five to Seven years back. It has become the World's largest once more, and it represents superior production quantity and superior marketing results. Airbus is seriously challenging Boeing's market arm during the last three years in the single aisle division. However, the wide body division has greater dollar value in sales than Airbus' own single aisle transactions.Wide bodies have made Boeing the king of manufacturing at multiple levels of its production and its over-all cash inflows are recognized as its strength.

Muilenberg, is tasking Boeing's hot button issues first, as he begins riding the aviation Bull. Sikorsky is one of his first plays of involvement in a take-over consideration.

His short list of questions, which is made up from pressing the issue button, that must be accomplished by Boeing in his first five years.

1. Is the continuity of going from 777-300-ER up to 777X, set?
2. Is a 757 replacement necessary for Boeing even just for the sake of aircraft family completeness?
3. What to do with the 747-800 program and where does Boeing Go Next!?
4. How much military does Boeing want to involve itself in?
5. If I'm a done CEO before 2030, what will I have accomplished for the next team up?

The list of urgency is far longer than what this new CEO has previewed in private, as Dennis Muilenberg.  The former CEO, McNerney, did his best, and now will have a distinguished role as a Boeing mentor to the new CEO for a couple of years. Boeing blossomed during this last decade, as a once again World's Largest event. Dennis must now take the company further with its established technology, and not rest on the millennial's coattails, or they will once again see the late 1990's again as Airbus attempts a surge over Boeing's production acumen. 

Ethiopia beating the economic odds

Posted on Monday, 22 June 2015 16:14

The Ethiopian 787 Journal Flows to its Profits

Ethiopia beating the economic odds <<Link

"The aviation story is different. Ethiopia's geographic location and the success of its national airline give it easy access to many global markets.

Ethiopian Airlines flies passengers to 83 international destinations, 49 of them in Africa, and hauls cargo to 24 cities around the globe. It is Africa's fastest growing and most profitable passenger and cargo carrier.

Three years ago, the state-owned but privately-managed airline became the second carrier outside Japan to operate the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, a state-of-the-art passenger jet."

Winging It Predicted this as a feature company back in 2011 and then in 2013.

Winging IT August 2013

"After reading this old Winging It link on LiftnDrag blog, the article goes on to state watch Ethiopian Airlines, because they are best positioned to take advantage  of the 787 on its long legged routes. Little did I know, they would have one 787 catch on fire at London Heathrow, and benched it indefinitely until a resolution is found, or did I know they they would increase its profitability by 178%, and recognize the 787 directly affecting the bottom line by so much! Even with its older aircraft inventory in play everyday. If it sounds like crowing, then so be it, its crowing a little. I can't help but get a little excited on a long shot Airlines on a winning horse, The 787."

Winging It December 11, 2011

"Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

Areoflot's 22 DreamLiner Order Going to The Boeing Laundry

Not so fast my friend. The 22 Aeroflot cancelled Dreamliners from Paris are now being discussed with a Boeing plan in mind. Aeroflot said, "Nyet' at Paris. Boeing said, "wait just a darn moment my friends". "Putin Doesn't have the coin of the realm like we do."

Boeing ready to help Aeroflot with Dreamliner contract

Boeing is prepared to help Aeroflot - Russian Airlines resolve the issue of a contract to supply 22 Boeing 787 Dreamliner airliners, Sergei Kravchenko, Boeing's Russia and CIS President, told reporters at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.



Boeing does not want to give Airbus orderbook bragging point and will try a very lucrative financial packaging for AeroFlot. 

Selling Points Played For AeroFlot

• Buy 22 787 get one free coupon.
• Frozen Exchange rate for the Ruble at any delivery date/time before 2024
• In House Boeing Finance from Boeing General Acceptance Corporation BGAC
• First Time Buyer Cash Back 787 Program Incentive
• Free access to Boeing's Flying Maintenance Circus BFMC. Aeroflot Fly's it away we come and fix it any time, anywhere and in anyway special.
• First Tank of Fuel free to fly it home. 

Winging IT With "Jethro's Bodine", Paris Orders On The Table, Ciphered

Accounting Note:
Boeing has book numbers on its Boeing.com. Confusing as they present it, since my numbers don't reconcile, I have presented one last time a snap shop from press reports. My bad! However, I wanted to bring clarity to the issue of money in play from purchases to options tabled. The categories are self explanatory. The money are optimum book numbers and don't represent signed on values only an advertised list price. Even though I keep posting Paris numbers, the silly changes are interpretations coming from many sources, so it becomes who said what issues. Even though I made a good faith effort to round up a correct summary, it becomes a close accounting call, depending on what method. Boeing may have couched the show numbers. Here are my numbers which will be fleshed out by the end of the year. On to Dubai with more wide bodies in play. Boeing's body-of-work for 2015 is the final indicator for whose boss in 2015. Winging says Boeing Production wins and Orders remain a ? mark but will be close. Only the final dollar count will be the actual tie breaker in 2015.

It's Innovation Stupid

Boeing slipped up and showed Airbus its strategy at the Paris Airshow. Boeing innovation at full bloom. Hewlett-Packard once had the "Innovate" Vision. It worked and worked then came Carli Fiorina and change the logo from "Invent". Its an urban legend, and it reads well, so I added it to this blog story. However, Airbus was just as impressed with the Vietnam Airline 787-9 Show as were the Parisians attending. Boeing out innovated Airbus at this show. Boeing will continue out innovate Airbus for some time to come. Airplane Customers are starting to get It! The Moses Lake "air adventure", you know before the Paris Airshow video, was filmed at three different angles using a You Tube innovation.

You Tube Choose Your View

Innovation strikes at the heart of the Boeing 787 program and its beginning to show. Even at the Paris Airshow it showed by out innovating Airbus. The Vietnam Airlines 787-9 went up, down, and around in spectacular fashion. During the Moses Lake practice Boeing partnered with You Tube with three camera angles of the famous 787-9 practice run (see link above). Innovation is seeping into the travelers awareness from Boeing's 787 with 11 million Youtube and news views in one week with just a practice run of "Boeing's Innovation 787 Moment".

Boeing Innovation is the subliminal nuance in every 787 flight. It winning over passengers and airline customers without cognizant recognition with a steady stream of smiling and pleased passengers, who don't even know why they are smiling when they arrive at their destination. Remember they breathed fresh air without the taint of Jet A fumes. Other new airplanes, like the A-350 can't claim that nuance or innovation.  Airbus hasn't mastered what Boeing has mastered.

Another subliminal innovation with the 787 is found in its wings, computers and actuators. The ride over the Rocky Mountains is smooth with nary a bump in your napping. The systems detect rough air and automatically adjusts wing trim making smoother flight while colliding with nasty wind chops at 550 MPH. The passengers didn't notice the subliminal innovation only to note it seems the 787 airplanes always fly routes with the best weather, and other airlines seem to always fly in rougher air.

Boeing innovated with slick air. What the heck is "slick air"? It comes from a laminar flow technology of which you will not notice boarding a 787-9. Leading edges on some flight surfaces took its golf game to new heights. The dimples found on golf balls made their way on Boeing wings in a patented formation. The Airbus A-350 hasn't got there yet, but now they need to do it the old fashioned way through copy right infringement methodology. Laminar flow makes wind sliding by the lifting surface, non abrasive, and reduces significant drag and fuel burn. That's why a passenger will fly from Australia with 300 friends to Dallas, TX, or somewhere in South America just because they can with Boeing's innovation, which they are not probably aware of yet.

Noise is not the issue with Boeing, since its innovation is built into the 787 frame. The A-380 is noted for its quiet manners because passenger are mostly removed from the source of engine noise and moving parts. Its just that big you don't hear what's going on downstairs or two blocks behind the noise. Airbus did a great job of isolating its passenger from sources of noise. Having said that politely, I move to the 787 where they do not have the luxury of separating passengers by distance from the noise, so they had to stop making noise in the first place. First came the engines noise that had to be knocked down by many decibels by multiple innovations. The engine inlet cowling was redesign and chevrons at the back of engine cowling was an added as sound deadening innovation. GE and Rolls developed Plastics in the fan blades, dampening engine decibels. The multiple innovations from frame builder and engine builder gave passengers quiet conversations again without every passenger hearing any loud conversations. It became another subliminal feature born out Boeing and its partners of innovations.

Fresh Air, smooth ride, and quiet comfort are all brought about uniquely, from Boeing's innovation closet. Going farther on tank of fuel and then maintaining the aircraft from its airborne systems and reporting, keeps your time at the airport at a 99% better level of performance worldwide. When you view the 787-9 Paris Airshow practice video, Its all about the innovation Airbus couldn't touch at the show. People are starting to get it. Boeing is about making it best. Passengers just want to get to their destination smiling without realizing why.

Unofficial Paris Recap Of Boeing Dollars

A quick and dirty number crunch for your reading consumption. Many publications have come out with a variety of numbers. However, my numbers are more carefully, tallied, considered and propagated to the most accurate conclusion anyone west of the bagel stand can cipher. Jethro Bodine (Jed, Beverley Hillbillies fame's nephew). Here are Jethro's numbers cipher through digital manipulation based on his ten digit ciphering.

MOM is coming, Winging It Weighs in Again

The Boeing 757 is a done deal in the production realm. No longer built but much loved. It is rapidly being replaced by the A-321 knock-offs for its own size and range similar to the 757, but does not have near the appeal the 757 had, even as Airbus brings its new A-321 forward. The design staff at Winging It was challenged with a "Boeing What Would We Do Project". Called "Middle of the Market" or affectionately referred, as just MOM.

Here goes once more Winging It's stab in the dark, since Boeing didn't react with the last 757 "W.I." replacement brainstorm. Build a mini dual aisle two class . Each Aisle similar single aisle width, expand the hull by an additional 48 inches across. Using similar 737-9 Max body length, and  rows spacing. Explore two different seat layouts. One with 2-3-2 throughout while planting 231 seats, and the other with 2-2-2 Premium Class with 4 rows of 24 pleasurable seats, and then going into economy at 2-3-2 for 28 rows, planting 196 seats, totaling the MOM at 222 seats.

This concept lives up to its acronym with middle of market dynamics. Mid-body width between single and duo wide-body aisle widths. Ample room for going + 5,000 miles or ten hours duration. Premium seats have a 36 inch pitch and 22 inch width. Economy 31 inch pitch 18 inch seat width. Mid Market engine power either with CFM or GE exclusive engines. 787 avionics and plastic wings made in Everett. The 1,000 airplane predicted stream will make this tween-er exciting and preferable over some single aisles routes, no matter the manufacturer. Its Boeing's opportunity for transitioning from single aisle to dual aisle segment. The MOM will please the family as well as business. Trans Continental and some Trans Oceanic may appeal to the Likes of Ryan Air. Its not a niche airplane at-all but a market complement for ordering suites of aircraft from one manufacturer.  

Paris Day III Order Fight Moving to Dubai

You heard it from "Winging It" first, the Order Book Fight between Boeing and Airbus will now move to the desert, where the big boys slug it out in the sand late in the fall of 2015. The Dubai Airshow is November 8-12, 2015. Also pending, is the 100 Emirates medium sized wide body aircraft. Boeing says they have 787-10 thrust Emirates needs at desert temperatures exceeding 110 degrees F. Maybe so, when you consider wing lift and body weight on the 787 design. The A-350 has plenty of power burning out of its engines stern. Oh, if only a 787-10 was flying today it would be simple to answer Emirates thrust angst.

Six Ethiopian 787's were identified at the show, coming from a former undisclosed customer announcement.

The thrust issue is important to Emirates as it will load its airplanes on hot days with extra people and luggage. The lift and thrust of an aircraft drops off significantly in the heat. The old rocket adage comes into to play, "you can fly a brick with enough thrust". Boeing meets its efficiency claim with less thrust on the 787-10 which is perfect for Northern climates. Emirates claims it’s less than optimal for its heat. They want optimal for their aircraft.

Boeing doesn't want to have to install, an all-new thrust heavy aircraft for one customer. It's a dilemma for both. Emirates doesn't want the A-350-9 as a solution, but will go there if ignored.

The line in the sand has been drawn at the Paris Airshow. No thrust no sale. A solution comes in various packages. One, Boeing needs its test 787-10 flying sooner than its current readiness, demonstrating its claim the 787-10 is extremely adequate for all flight conditions. Secondly Emirates must quell its horse power thirst for a muscle aircraft. They have analyzed the efficiency drop for more thrust is not enough of a penalty for spoiling competitive operation. They would like a low ball bid on high performance (power) engine beyond the necessary realm, you know it as global warming anxiety. This would be on Boeing's Dime to give more horse power to the 787-10. Emirates, of course would want a special price from Boeing.

Boeing ponders how they can win the sale without moving the line in the sand. 70,000 lbs. thrust makes the grade with some to spare no matter the earthly conditions. You don't need 80,000 lbs. thrust with the 787's wing and weight. Didn't you see it (787-9) take off at Paris? "Well the 10 will be more thrilling because it’s longer!"

Emirates, wants to tell its friends it has more horsepower because they are rich and horsepower unused is a rich thing when traveling to the airport in front of your friends. It’s the same thing when you drive a V-12 sports car to the car show instead of your VW. Boeing needs to change its image for its 787-10 with a less is more campaign. Much like selling a self-winding watch. It’s just better not to wind when don't have to wind the watch. If this makes any sense at all then you are ready to go to Dubai.

Boeing needs to build image on a less is more theme. Impressions sometimes are greater than thrust itself. Emirates has to be turned away from its raw data coming from the past, to the new data spawned out of the 787 program. Taking-off at 130 degrees F made simple, An Australian 787 Test Primer. It is a good read. How good will the 787-10 be? Working in reverse of the thrust number rates the 787-10 for its efficiency, and performance. When all things are considered, it’s claimed to be so good it only needs 70,000 lbs. thrust per engine. Where the other usual suspects need much more than that, as Emirates has assumed.

Seeking Alphas Part II the 777-8X Beats the A350-1000 Too

Earlier on December 14, 2014 I laid out the Seeking Alpha thesis on the A-350 where it won't cut it against the 777X members either in load with the 777X-9 or in Range in the 777X-8 Here is the Not forgotten but long waiting part two from:

Dhierin Bechai, Aviation Investor's Blog (198 clicks)

Long only, airlines, industrials, aerospace

The 777-8X Goes Long.

Why Boeing Does Not Need To Worry About A Possible Airbus A350-1100

Dec. 19, 2014 4:04 AM ET  |  7 comments  |  About: The Boeing Company (BA), Includes: EADSF, EADSY

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Summary

• Stretched version of the Airbus A350-1000 will not be able to efficiently compete with 777X.
• Airlines favour 777-9X over Airbus A350-1000.
• Boeing 777-8X is unreachable ultra-long range aircraft.

In my previous articles I compared the Airbus [(OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY)] A350-1000 with the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 777X and concluded that the 777X is the better and more efficient aircraft.

When the Airbus A350-1000 will enter service it will probably be the most efficient aircraft in the skies.

Boeing's reply to the Airbus A350-1000 came in the form of the Boeing 777X, and Airbus does not seem to have an answer to that.

In order to compete with the Boeing 777X, Airbus might decide to bring the Airbus A350-1100, a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000. Airbus stated that its first priority is to optimize the Airbus A350-1000 and after that look at possible stretched version of the Airbus A350.

In this article I will explain why the Airbus A350-1100 will not change anything for the success Airbus A350 family.

First of all it is important to look at how the A350-1000 and Boeing 777-8X are placed in the payload-range diagram:

Figure 1: Payload-range diagram Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777X (Source: Dhierin-Perkash Bechai)

When looking at the payload-range diagram it is important to recognize the differences.

Differences Boeing 777-9X and Airbus A350-1000: The Boeing 777-9X transports up to 50 passengers more and has a range that is about 200 nm greater.

Differences Boeing 777-8X and Airbus A350-1000: The Boeing 777-8X transports up to 3 passengers more and has a range that is about 1300 nm greater.

Looking at the differences it can be concluded that the Airbus A350-1000 is being squeezed by the members of the Boeing 777X.

What a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000 means:

• Higher capacity
• Lower range
• Added structural weight

In order to match the capacity of Boeing 777-9X, Airbus can decide to stretch the airframe. The addition of structural weight (for the added frames and sizing needed for the wings) as well as increase in payload will considerably decrease the range of a possible Airbus A350-1100.

In order to match the range of the Boeing 777-8X, Airbus might decide to seat slightly less passengers in the Airbus A350-1000 and try to increase fuel capacity. Probably a stretch is needed to increase space for fuel tanks which basically means that Airbus cannot compete with the Boeing 777-8X.

So a stretched version only is able to compete with the Boeing 777-9X in terms of capacity, but will lack the range capability of the Boeing 777-9X. The Trent XWB engines are probably maxed out, and there is very little to squeeze out of it to increase range.

So even if Airbus comes up with the Airbus A350-1100 it will not be able to compete with the upcoming Boeing 777X, a stretch of an already stretched aircraft simply will not be as efficient.

What could be a possibility is stretching the airframe to increase capacity and place a significantly more efficient engine on the Airbus A350 to increase the range.

Order numbers also show that the Boeing 777X is favored over the Airbus A350-1000:

Table 1: Order numbers medium wide body members

As can be seen few airlines are buying the Boeing 777-8X that will be the ultra-long range leader, but airlines are favoring the Boeing 777-9X that has higher capacity over the Airbus A350-1000.

It can be concluded that with the Airbus A350 Airbus did not plan ahead but merely came up with a product to compete with the current 777 product line that is already a decade old.

One can also question the strength of the A350 as an aircraft family:

• The Airbus A350-800 probably will be canned (existing orders will be converted to orders for the A350-900 or the A330neo).
• The Airbus A350-1000 has not received any orders in a year now
• Since the launch of the Boeing 777X, Airbus only received 3 orders for the Airbus A350-1000
• Only the Airbus A350-900 has decent order numbers and inflow

Conclusion

Airbus certainly failed in predicting or anticipating future competitors on the market. They came up with the Airbus A350, which is a perfect competitor for the current 777 but cannot compete with the Boeing 777X. The Airbus A350 is too small to compete with the upcoming Boeing counterparts. This might mean that Boeing will be leading the lucrative medium-wide-body sector.

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