Keeping Up: Airbus has 3 WB's Delivered, Boeing has 279 WB's Delivered

Airbus has delivered 3, A350-900 since December 22, 2015. All to Qatar. Boeing has hit full stride with 279-787's, since its first delivery in late September 2011. Boeing spun out three 787 in its first three months. Airbus has done the same feat in five months.  It has predicted 12 more in 2015. Comparing the two programs indicates a separate strategy. The Boeing 787 effort jumped over Airbus, and has left the Euro company a no rush approach. Boeing rushed its charge forward regardless the obstacles it encountered for its more complex made aircraft.

Had Boeing not had the battery issue, it would have probably gained more sales in the early production years. However, things being what they where, Boeing gave up some precious ground over Airbus during 2012-2013. Risk averting airlines, may have opted for the Airbus during the bad days Boeing had encountered. All things considered, the market is settling into an orderly two camp market for wide bodies. Each having its own talking points for salesmanship.

The Airbus approach is going very carefully forward, and celebrating its three deliveries in five months without the press hounding them over any internal calamities from program mishaps. As it was experienced in  Boeing's fast start. Airbus is simply laying low in the weeds and relishing its second place position without all the Boeing "hub-bub"  concerning its: forming, storming and norming and performing of the 787.

1. "The Forming – Storming – Norming – Performing model of group development was first proposed by Bruce Tuckman in 1965, who maintained that these phases are all necessary and inevitable in order for the team to grow, to face up to challenges, to tackle problems, to find solutions, to plan work, and to deliver results."

Wiki reference:

Tuckman's stages of group development

These are factors of team building. Airbus has done its storming in privacy with no unreasonable goal setting the pace. It quietly keeps announcing certainties long after that "certainty" is achieved within the program. Where it is long past tense rather than ,Boeing's approach of announcing a "certainty", before all problems are worked out. Hence Boeing ran the risk of a program mishap during the early history of the aircraft.

It is not to say Airbus did not have its share of mishaps within the program. However, it is to say being second, allowed them the position for the A-350 of laying low in the weeds, of never having publicity over those types mishaps. Airbus couched its airplane development, and not often reported any problems within the framework of A-350 lower tech development. Boeing came out naked into the press stirring up interest for its "All New 787", which superseded the Wright Brothers Historical effort back-in-the-day.  Boeing needed the limelight to launch its program for the 787 to succeed. It needed the press to quantum jump Airbus who was left sanding flat footed back in 2007.

The Boeing risk was shadowed by battery failure, adding shims, and drill holes and fastener making wing cracks. Airbus for sure had its shakedown period for its own million part aircraft assembly during  the early A-350 start-up. Except they were in second place, and mitigated its news under the developmental umbrella of press protection. Boeing marched out with its chest laid bare. Oops, there were some nasty scars exposed after if flew commercially during 2012. Boeing pressed into gaining separation from Airbus' slow slog to delivery.

The market has settled. The bean counting has started comparing both programs. Airbus claims its better than the 787. That is to be expected even if the A-350 is considered nothing more than a plastic kite. They will always say they are better, no matter the circumstance! It's their job that's what they do.

Boeing has passed the mishap curve in full display of the press ramblings. The aircraft is actually remarkable, imagine that! The added value 787 has secrets within its frame, and its not 5 inches wider which is Airbus' only difference maker over the 787. The all electric scheme has flown in almost four years, where in a few months it will celebrate its fourth years in service. Over 330-787 will be delivered by end of October 2015. The added value of the 787 is becoming realized through those same systems diagnostics. Maintenance cost are now hard numbers and very pleasing to Boeing's customers. A second wave of orders should reflect the pleasing performance of the 787, sans glitches. The brochure given the customers back in 2011 rings true finally.

The A-350 has only three in commercial aircraft flying at this time, and will soon have more. By the time the A-350 has delivered 15 of its type at years end, Boeing will have delivered about 120 during 2015 and totaling 348-787 for the over-all program delivered. (See Chart Below)

*2015 Delivery Projected for Year End

Winging It Chart adjusted for Year end production projections . 

Laying in the weeds during development for Airbus has paid off for its WB order book. Baring any major mishap in commercial service, the A-350-9 will be a steady program forward, which keeps Boeing hopping for years to come. At the end of 2016, Boeing will have an over 400 units delivered lead over A-350 delivered making a significant foot print in the WB  Market. Airbus is betting on additional passenger space and its follow-on optics for the passengers. Boeing has played both to the Airline customer and its passengers with top to bottom advancements. Airlines choose the seat configuration and numbers in passengers for the space available.
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Both makers have a comparable backlog of around 800 units. However, Boeing is at a 10-12 unit per month rate where Airbus has not achieved even a 1 a month rate since first delivery. Boeing may go under Airbus' Backlog by year's end, depending on any new orders taken in for the makers in the next six months.

This leads into the next topic, the customer reflexes towards having a quicker delivery date from the airplane maker's backlog availability. Boeing certainly has the high ground, since it has devoured backlog from its peak order book number of 1,104-787, and it could it go significantly under the 800 backlog units mark by year's end from a robust production program. Otherwise, the Paris Air Show could change the backlog metric with new order announcements, as Airbus uses this event for its own self-promotion. The Paris Airshow becomes a signal, whether Airbus has anything going on at-all for the year. Boeing may come in with a few 787 surprises (orders), as I am suspecting. The first three months Boeing showed a normal progression of orders each month.. The pace of announcement has lessened, as customers may be waiting for this year's next event for its big bang, and attention generation during the Paris Airshow event. It looks as if both manufacturers will hover around 800 WB's to be delivered from its backlog by end of 2015. I would not be surprised if Boeing's Backlog goes back up to, and over 850 787's after the Paris Announcements.

Reference Credit: All Things 787

The Importance Of Being Common

Airlines tend to buy aircraft in a growth patterns staying with a manufacturer, whether or not the next type of up-line model is not better than the competitions. In-essence, the commonality question becomes more import for fleet expansion or replacement than if buying 787-9 or an A-350-900 when you have a fleet of single aisle already supplied with trained ground personal, parts, and few pilots capable of stepping up to a different dual aisle model. The 1% -2% difference between wide bodies in competition doesn't play into the over-all cost of having a mixed fleet of both Airbus and Boeing Aircraft.

PAL is pondering buying the A-350. It also runs in numbers the A-320. It has retired its 747 fleet and needs long legs. What PAL has to consider, is whether the A-320 meets its future needs as compared with the Boeing MAX single aisle, before it orders the A-350 duo-aisle wide body. Boeing would like to flip the PAL fleet Boeing's way. It has to sell them, the MAX, in the future with an overwhelming argument before PAL could even consider the 787 wide body. It just easier for PAL to order the A-350 regardless of a line by line comparison on the 787 vs the A-350.

Boeing must convince PAL why the 737 Max is a sea change event for other airlines in the region, before the wide body sale can be completed. Here are Boeing's Talking point to that end.

• The 737 Max is a better fit for PAL.
• The 737 training expense for PAL maybe mitigated through aircraft price offerings and sweeteners.
• The timing for PAL/Boeing delivery could be made more appropriate for PAL's financing resources.
• The Boeing Advantage of dual aisle performance could be made relevant with Boeing's fleet change assistance.
• Competition is going to be other airlines which are flying Boeing in the region.
• The competition with wide bodies, world-wide, is the 787, the A-350 maybe close but no cigar.

Boeing has to work very hard for the wide-body sales of the 787 as PAL ponders Airbus and its commonality with the A-320. The Max discussion must be part of the deal in order it to work for PAL.

One Thing Is Known, China Doesn't Pay Attention To Paris Airshows

Ruili Airlines has reported it has signed off on 6.1 billion deal with Boeing for 60 Max 737's. The largest order booked this year for the single aisle aircraft with Boeing. Paris aside, China and Boeing are pressing the "book" as it comes forward per customer requests. In this case Ruili is too busy building its airline to worry about style points at Paris. No matter what happens during the Paris pomp and Airbus, the end of the year remains on December 31, and Boeing will post its numbers just the same.

Airshows are just for showing-off. Ruili is about moving forward quickly.

Financial Buzz:

"Ruili Airlines is a young airlines company in China that is already runs operations using five Boeing 737 aircraft. The other 60 are expected to be" completely delivered by 2025.

  The Max 737 has gained steam without the Paris affect playing on the "Book". This indicates more is in play for Paris then is currently known beforehand. It maybe a 787 show after -all.

Wait For It Boeing, The World Will Grow Into The 787-8

The early heady days of the 787 program are over. Customers have filled the 787-9 order book often while flipping 787-8 orders into a 787-9 order. Boeing is also catering for a strong single Aisle market with the Max 737 family. Models go  from 737-700 to 787-900 Max types for its order book. The 757 is being retired in a orderly progression with no heir apparent on the horizon, even though Airbus proposes a A-321 NEO. This model condition creates the often quoted "Gap" in the order book line-up. Their is no "Gap" filler from the 737 family to the 787-8. It becomes quite a jump. The "stop-gap" measure is ordering the Max 200C or the 737-900. Boeing has stopped consideration on filling its gap filling quandary in the Boeing family of aircraft, or has it?.

Data is what everyone lacks, and Boeing has this in abundance. It projects for the need of 33,000 new aircraft added to order books from now until 2030. It knows how much it will cost when wedging in another new aircraft type competing for financial resources while having both the 787-10 and the 777X family projects moving forward. It also knows several other points, the Airbus A-350-800 is an epic order failure. The door swung open for Boeing in this case. There is no competitor with the 787-8. Airbus saw this too, hence the A-330NEO is a knee jerk 787-8 stopper done on the cheap. Loyal customers responded in lock step for a few hundred orders. They weren't going to buy Boeing aircraft in the first place.

However, Boeing just sits on its ultimate plan for its family of aircraft from single aisle to duo aisle offerings. The gap is waiting for the world to catch up rather than Boeing coming out with the single aisle or duo aisle new aircraft "gap filler". They already have the gap filler in its stable and its flying today, but the world growth has not caught up. This change will only be noted in the 787-8 order book in the next few years. Boeing needs to build a 787-8 metro class variant. Featuring a 220 seat limitation, shrinking the fuel load for only for up to five thousand miles of service travel, and making weight stripping adjustments within the 787-8 frame for shorter travel legs. The 787-8 would be a perfect candidate for optimizing the use of payload limits, and making engine adjustments for better fuel consumption when flying interurban routes such as a Seattle to New York routine.
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Gap pressure will come from airline growth from its customer base. Boeing must lower the purchase price of the 787 metro concept through a less is more campaign added to the 787-8 aircraft. The 737-900 has reached its route limit, and it falls just short of linking world growth and routes just beyond the 3500 mile boundary. A 787-8 Metro variant would fill in nicely with little sunk cost going into another airplane program. The Metro 787 is not made for globe trotting, but it's made for the world you and your friends live in.

A Must Read on the 777X

It's never about the blogger when an article come out like this has for the 777X engine plan. The GE 9X is an important milestone for both GE and Boeing. If what is read in this article is far better than 15% as the 787 proved itself with a 20% commercial efficiency rate from it customers this is going to be very big. I mean very big news. The 777X is already very big.

GE9X engine for the 777X will be 10% more efficient than any twin aisle engine

Good Bye A350-1000 there is a new sheriff coming to town and it will eat Airbus' lunch off the flight line..

NextBigFuture.com credits on graphics  Next Big Future Link Part II 777X

CFM's 800 Pound Gorilla Waits... Part Deux "Mumbo-Jumbo"

Counter points are for imaginary staff meetings. After taking-off with the CFM 1-B, Boeing flew its engine with startling metrics results. The bench test short fall only told CFM what it needed to know about its progeny in the first place. Tweaking the CFM 1-B destined for the 737 Max made gains towards eliminating the 5% short fall with big results.

First test of Boeing 737 Max engine looks good; future success critical

The first test looks good, that's it? However, below is the quip from Boeing testing, which suggest an improvement without disclosing what the metric has achieved towards eroding the 5% shortfall. Indicating maybe they aren't there yet, but techno adjustments has made the engine  closer to the advertised efficiency.

Puget Sound Business Journal quote:

"The smaller Boeing LEAP-IB engine, manufactured by CFM International, is lighter than the version of the engine the Airbus A320neo will use, but having less ground clearance that the A320neo has forced Boeing to use smaller-diameter versions of the fans that push air through the engine for thrust
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But Boeing engineers have insisted that 737 Max’s LEAP-IB, engineered with a slightly flattened cowling to fit under the 737 wing, will offer competitive performance.

“While we applaud Pratt & Whitney for their efforts, we are not seeing that the availability of (the geared turbofan) as a key discriminator,” said Keith Leverkuhn, vice president and program manager for the 737 Max, in a 2013 press briefing. “I think the LEAP engine, with the technologies they’re adding in, provides us with right technology and is truly matched to the airplane.” 

There it is, from the Mumbo-Jumbo (747 test bed) is on the Boeing table. They see what they need to do to make the CFM 1-B compliant to the goals for the aircraft. Is it bravery talking, or is it a feign just for Airbus Bravado? It's hard to tell in this case, especially when trying to sell more MAX to its prospective customers. It has become an insiders game for the clientele. No one yet, knows for sure what's up with that statement above, other than what it says. Be brave we have the battle won over the NEO.

However, I am trying to be Brave with all this Mumbo-Jumbo talk and I am in want to believe the initial outcome is really good. Once again I am guessing at a 3 1/2 % flying test bed improvement over the bench tests report already, and a future PIP is coming gaining the other 1 & 1/2% needed by CFM testing, component parts, and engine tweak department.

The World's Top Ten Airline Approaches

Going to some of these approaches,  and never considering as top a top ten, but here it is with "Private Fly" rendition of Top Ten approaches. Some are stark and beautiful and some are calming yet interesting. All are exciting approaches for the possibilities after landing.

To find out more about these airport's and its locations, please link to Private Fly provided above through the name of the publication.

Private Fly's list: Starting with the World's Number one approach in this year's Private Fly list.

1. QUEENSTOWN AIRPORT: new Zealand

You said:

"I've flown to many beautiful locations worldwide but NOTHING even comes close to comparing with the thrill and beauty that stuns you as you come in to land at Queenstown. The approach to Queenstown has everything. Looking over the endless Southern Alps, and the pristine turquoise rivers and lakes is just magical."

"Breathtaking approach with mountains and lakes surrounding you. It feels as if you're being transported straight to Middle Earth - because you are!"

"I had no words, just tears of awe and beauty when I landed here! It's completely enveloped by mother nature."

The judges said:

Bill Prince "A world class approach to a world class destination. The snatched panoramas as you descend into this hitherto barren-looking landscape makes you realise that pilots do get the best views."

Read more about Queenstown Airport

2. LAS VEGAS MCCARRAN AIRPORT

3. NICE CÔTE D’AZUR AIRPORT

4. BARRA AIRPORT

5. ST MAARTEN (PRINCESS JULIANA INTERNATIONAL) AIRPORT

6. SABA (JUANCHO E IRAUSQUIN) AIRPORT

7. BILLY BISHOP TORONTO CITY AIRPORT

8. GIBRALTAR AIRPORT

9. LONDON CITY AIRPORT

10. CAPE TOWN AIRPORT

Its Spring, Its Paris, The Military Stays Home

Not often does the military stay on the side lines at airshows. However the US military industrial complex is not flexing its muscle at this years Paris Airshow. No KC-46 tanker, no F-35 and it doesn't appear that Stars Wars will even show an epic movie, "The attack of The Drones". If the Bath works could only float a ship up the Seine to the Left bank. The US military would be represented. Even EADS had a tragic blooper directly before this year's show. Its A-400 military transport crashed last week in Spain killing most of its flight crew. The troubled program has lost the excitement over its military offering just prior to another delivery, the Turkish military .

UK halts Airbus A400M usage after Seville crash

 

An Airbus A400M military transport plane crashed in Seville while performing a test flight, killing four crew members. Photograph: Spanish police handout/EPA

"Airbus Defense and Space said that of a total crew of six, four were killed and two were in hospital in a serious condition. All the crew members were company employees and of Spanish nationality. A spokesman said: “Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those affected by this tragic accident and we are providing all our care and support.”

The plane was expected to be the third aircraft to be delivered to a Turkish customer, and formal delivery was scheduled for next month.

The A400M is a large, propeller-driven transport aircraft that is being assembled in Seville. Some 194 have been ordered by eight countries, including Spain, seeking a replacement to its ageing Hercules fleet."

It saddens me to see these kind of photos. An airplane several years back crash near my home and it looked just like this photo. I never loose sight that flying is not taken for granted. The U.S.Osprey program had its gloomy days and now its seems to be a fine aircraft after cleaning up its weaknesses.

The military pushes the envelope with its inventions and perhaps an airshow is not the appropriate place to demonstrate its inventive might. Static displays are best served with long lines and a brochure table. 

Orders are the big thing at the airshow. As mentioned earlier within the context of a prior blog, I can only hope a few surprises are up some body's sleeve for order announcement, others wise it will be better not to fight Paris traffic, but just sit on the left bank eating crepes and waiting for the DDG-1000 to come up the Seine river. 

Hub-a-nomics is not the Boeing Strategy?

"Hub aggregation is also a key to enabling growth, because the region's central hubs allow carriers to serve hundreds of routes that have insufficient traffic to warrant point-to-point service. "Alliances, partnerships, and equity stakes in airlines of neighboring regions also feed the Middle East hubs," added the Boeing official."

The 787 was built for point to point travel. From your front door to China with one airline ticket. However comes the term "Hub Aggregation" or a "Cluster, Forming United Center of Kaos". (No Acronym supplied)

Middle East needs almost 3,000 planes in next two decades: Boeing

Boeing is talking 737 MAX smack when its talking "Hub Aggregation". The 787 is a hub buster. The Middle East wants the world to come to them but not on a 737 necessarily. However, Boeing needs expansion for its single aisle 737 flying bridge, using "Hub Aggregation" as if it were a cruise ship term for a re-positioning maneuver.  The 737 case is for what the "Arab Nations have built it", and we are coming with the Boeing single aisle complimentary aircraft for that Arab Hub Aggregation which has been established.

Boeing proposes, growth can only occur with the right equipment. Emirates, Qatar and Jordan to name a few, need the re-positioning aircraft for its passengers like the 737 Max complimenting its Hub Aggregations in the Middle East 

787 Production Surges Past Expectation

The two plants in Charleston, SC and Everett WA, can get the job done without Everett's extra surge line. Exceeding expectations by months, as Boeing originally predicted a 2016 date, Boeing will move in the 777X project into the Everett 787 surge line space after the end of 2015.

This is a solid announcement, and the planning calendar should not change. Charlotte has turned around its production acumen for the 787, and is targeted with 4-5 787's a month by years end. Thus ending Everett's 787 surge line. Everett will continue it's pace of six 787 a month. Eventually, Charlotte will achieve about 6, 787 a month, making the completion goal for its contribution towards Boeing's stated 2016 goal of 12 787 a month.

Charlotte, SC will specialize in the 787-10 production due to an awkward, transportation of its longer barrel required for the 787-10's. This barrel size makes it not feasible for any Everett 787-10 production desires. It makes it so much more efficient for staying home in the low country keeping the longer barrel for Charlotte's aspirations.

The Charlotte 787 production learning curve reaches maturity by the end of 2015 while the other facility (Everett) starts 777X production and takes on 777X floor modifications in the former 787 surge line area.

The 787-10 step-up, will be Charlotte's first solo effort after Boeing goes outside the former Everett only development facility, where it had processed the 787-8 and 787-9 as first builds and testing of the sibling aircraft. The year 2016 will be the Boeing South matriculation ceremony in the Charlotte, SC plant. They have previously built a production 787-9 with success, and now they will build the 787-10 out of whole cloth and probably will fly it back to Everett during a complete flight testing regimen. It should eventually fly north to Everett for further testing, where they have the extensive testing data, collection and expertise available.

All of this can only happen because Boeing South has emerged as a competent and efficient facility. It looks like Boeing's gamble paid off going South, which bodes well for the low country and giving Everett more flexibility with the 777X project. All of this sets up for the 230th decade since counting began.

In the year 2030 everyone expects another Sea Change in aviation. The 777X will probably go plastic with the newest GE engines having all composite internals. An enormous Boeing blended wing could replace the A-380. By then, the 737 MAX is a now a twenty year place holder in single aisle category, where it will go futuristic with a composite make-over in 2030. Finally, the 787, is hard to replace, but three decades of service gives the 787 all the advantages of scientific advances. It will emerge as the ultimate airline with its composite barrel design and all electric architecture made better.