The All Important 787 Break-even POINT

WSJ is straight up with this quote.

"The Dreamliner 787 will be achieving breakeven by this year’s end, which is great news for investors as the planes were being sold at a loss due to increased development costs of manufacturing. This break-even, according to reports, is due to the fact that per unit cost of production is decreasing."

Okay the Dreamliner day of reckoning is coming in about 90 more 787 deliveries with this optimistic WSJ statement. My own predictions said it should be 2016-2017, way back in the day during 2012. However, production costs keep falling down a profitable slope for Boeing with its retired risks.

Winging It: comment from December 12,  2012: Link

"I said prior in a posting, that I believe Boeing will reach Break-even when 150 (142 actual orders as of today's book) 787-10's are sold or delivered.  I don't know when that will happen but, I believe this can be done well before 2021, but not by 2015 (I was wrong on the 787-10). Boeing will have to exhaust a significant portion of its order backlog through deliveries by 2015 to meet that goal (I was right on that statement). However, by 2015 Boeing will have all risks retired, and certainty of "when it will exactly meet, the profitability barrier beyond 2015" (I was right on this prediction from 2012).  A 2015 forecast for the year 2017 from Boeing, is a better forecast than this years 2012 forecast for 2015. Two years from now a solid view to the future will excite the investor, and I believe Boeing will state it will make money by 2017 (I was wrong), (not the press prediction) during 2021. A financial cushion of time would lean towards 2018. Boeing will make money on the 787 project as a whole surging past its breakeven point late 2017 (late 2016)or early 2018 (2017)."

I was wrong with my own prediction made at the end of 2012. It will be the end of 2015 or early 2016 according to this WSJ quote today.

December 12 2012 Winging It Quotes:

"However, the press and financiers will have a collective moment of throwing cautionary tales out for the reading public to sell copies, while financial people love conservative analysis sold to investors. So 2021 becomes the outer time limit for a conservative target date for profitability. In the meantime, an investor has time for buy/sell;  knock you self out selling short, buying low, or dumping stock, because the crazies are running the market during any week or two period of time. But, long term investors are far more certain of success if picking a spot now and jumping in for a smooth ride.

The newspapers will continue to chase every little dust ball found on new aircraft coming out of the factory, until people stop reading those news reports that "made them look". This battle will "continue into infinity" as in some kind of "Toy Story".

Final points: To the investor, keep your eye on two big ticket items in your portfolio analysis.

·       One, the accumulation of new Boeing orders after post A-350 introduction, 

·       and how much money airlines are making flying their 787's."

Why I was not exactly on point for the break-even timing?

Accounting notes, adjustments and deferrals for the break-even analysis often reduce the cost accumulated during production or development within a program.  Some of those accumulated cost can be applied to other programs such as the MAX, 777X, or other programs. The production rate has achieved a remarkable pace of almost 120 units a year. A feat the 777 program never could sustain. The rapid acceleration of production, the retirement of risks, and R&D cost sharing all contribute towards a targeted time for a 2015 break-even milestone where the 787 starts making money for the investor. Boeing reached its ultimate efficiency in a very rapid progression faster than I could anticipate.

Its a A Horse Race For The Long Range Bomber Award.

The Long Range Strategic Bomber (LRS-B) competition may undo what a wartime enemy couldn't do. Eliminate a US military production capability without dropping a bomb. Boeing - Lockheed and Northrop-Grumman has been invited to the RFP bidding docket. A loss for Northrop-Grumman may spell the the end of an era leaving Boeing-Lockheed in partnership for all primary defense industry offerings for America. It may weaken our national defense industrial complex having a duopoly for all next generation sole source offerings in its industrial complex defense capability.

The F-35 program went to Lockheed and Boeing failed to impress its offering, mainly it didn't look like and efficient fighter, it looked nontraditional straight from Seattle's boat races. But it did what the F-35 could do just the same. Brass wanted military sex appeal over underlying performance measures.

Boeing Photo Credit

F-35 Photo credit Lockheed

Northrup Grumman F-5 Last Star Fighter

The Department of Defense must determine if it will carpet bomb a manufacturing arm of its industrial aviation complex. If it awards a proposed LRS-B to Boeing- Lockheed, this may be a death blow in this section of the military competitor realm. This condition must be researched intensively, during the award LRS-B process. How does Government get the best offer while saving strategic production of its four large competing companies. Its another twist to sole sourcing in the procurement processing where a winner may take-it- all, where the loser can no longer compete with future programs from the lack of military orders. However, the losing competition is necessary for the DOD gaining optimal outcomes in the military's bidding process into the future. 

Solution Proposal: All competing bid participants have a stake in the award outcome. The winning contractor must allow resources coming from qualifying competitive bidders (ie) such as stealth features, or other technological and  proprietary contributions from its competition . The primary awardee must share in the award with a 80%/20%  contribution/spit as an example in its development.  If the competitor can qualify by showing its technological advances as a sub contractor for the primary awardee. It can share risks, cost and advancement with the primary contractor as a specialist.

The intent is to keep the competition surviving during the process even though an award goes to the primary awardee, while the valuable loser is not lost through attrition within a multi billion dollar contract process. This idea may be rife with weaknesses, but having a sole source availability is dangerous going forward when needing new equipment without having other competitive industrial complex offerings with a bid. Northrup Grumman may be an endangered competitor.

Boeing.Com Alert ! Standard Reports is Changed!

Boeing has revamped its web page starting in April 1, 2015.

The orders and delivery page is completely changed in look but not function as you carefully consider each standard report.

Boeing Orders and Deliveries Link

In fact some tables download directly to excel or another spreadsheet format. I don't like change. I don't like getting old. But a better working Boeing interface is a good thing for all those who hang on to  Boeing change management reports. Spend some time between breaks, before your next water cooler trip and see what has changed. Time well spent when spinning a blog.

April-Boeing 1st Quarter Recap

The below tables represent a snapshot of Boeing 787 production pacing and overall sales for 787 family of aircraft. Even though the prior Winging It blogs  have used tables concerning the 90 day moving average, it was necessary for some simplification illustrating both total sales and backlog of the aircraft.

The first table is the big picture using backlog as the key indicator for production and sales. Many production bumps are contained in the numbers as well as those missed sales opportunities and Boeing wins. It is a solid and stable chart, which encourages the investor during the first four years as Boeing gained control with its 787 program, and it is growing into its promised potential.

The second table below illustrates whether Boeing has met its own delivery governance for a ninety day period. Boeing has met its governance during first quarter 2015 with 10 787 delivered on average!

Table analysis and notes:

• Boeing sales has also maintained an ever increasing backlog during the 2011-14 time period, and should have a similar backlog by the end of 2015, when compared with its first delivery year backlog found in 2011. Boeing delivered 258 total 787 and booked a total of 339 new orders during the period charted. A net backlog increased by 81 787's from the 2011 to 2015 period. 

• Boeing demonstrates a determination for meeting its production and delivery advice with 10 787's  a month delivery pacing, even after a typical Holiday production pause.

• Program Snapshot Table since 2004 until March 21, 2015, demonstrates the steady build progress and continued sales effort. 

First Quarter 787 Inventory Comparison and Analysis For 2011-2015

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Beg Backlog	736	778	773	891	842	736
Delivered	3	46	65	114	30	258
Ordered	45	41	183	65	5	339
Ending Backlog	778	773	891	842	817	817
Back-Log Delta	42	-5	118	-49	-25	81

	90 Day Moving Average Table
	01/31/2015	2/28/2015	3/31/2015	Results
In Months Delivery	7	12	11	30
Moving Average				10
Goal				10
Goal Trend				0

Complete 787 program annual Order Additions and Delivery Subtractions 

Year	Yearly Orders	Yearly Delivery
2004	52	0
2005	197	0
2006	99	0
2007	269	0
2008	59	0
2009	24	0
2010	36	0
2011	45	3
2012	41	46
2013	183	65
2014	65	114
2015	4	30	Back-Log
Totals	1074	258	816

KC-46 Tanker Tanks Progress a Few More Months

The KC-46 Pegasis tanker still needs additional time as reported by the Puget Sound Business Journal. The March 26, 2015 article explains how additional time is required will not impede its ultimate delivery date in 2017. In fact, the tanker was scheduled as being fully loaded by April 2015. The date now moves to Late June (probably August) 2015. This three (probably five) month time bump is not serious during this stage of development. Other developmental progressions scheduled for the KC-46 tanker continue congruently with the delayed portion of the project. The workload shifts slightly when installation and validation of systems are carefully reordered. A first time production of any prototypical and systemic installation has the two headed conditions; of where it should be according to the plan; or where it actually is during the program in its reality mode. the KC-46 program progress is in reality mode at this time and a good thing too.

System stuffing in the KC-46 will be complete by August 2015 instead of the planned April 2015 deadline, including the tricky boom installation in question. Then its go time for flying its systems testing on the first 767 KC-46 2c. Early in 2016 will be the first of the 18 KC-46 completions, as it will begin assembly during this same period. Boeing will upgrade production copies on the ground during the testing phase until it ends.  Noting testing updates and risks retirement can be applied to the completed delivery queue waiting for final readiness, It gains back some time for Boeing's original delivery date for 2017. I only assume this from Boeing's 787 program, when they built 40 to 50 787's before final configurations, risk retirements, and updates were applied while they "rested on the flight line".

This first group of KC models may rest on Everett's flight lines until testing is complete.  It took several years until further 787 completeness was enacted, through its Change Incorporation and Rework Centers. It won't take several years for the military, since the 767 airplanes and its complimentary engines are a known and solid factor. It will only take weeks from installing the remaining ongoing changes accumulated throughout the program, as it chases the continuous improvement model. Upgrades are made when solutions are determined in process. It only has to consider new military systems interfacing with well developed Boeing systems. They have its arms around that consideration at this time.

Boeing KC-46 December 28 First Flight, Boeing Photo

All this was projected and promised in a timeline by Boeing to the Military. The phase of the project has moved to installation of all new system applied to the airframe. An earlier wiring problem with the schematic did not adhere to military redundancy and survivability codes. Five different power sources intersected at one point. The main electrical power wiring needed five separate routes not a junctions at one point, in case of a damaging or a coincidental hit during combat. This problem has been corrected, as it had added additional time into the project. This reinstallation compounds the time penalty as it affects the built-in slack time needed for such occurrences during a project. The cushion it had open for dealing with other "normal" developmental problems as it occurs is gone. As the schedule reaches closer to the development cycle conclusion, all the pent up delays are pushing out the first delivery window a few months.

Boeing Video KC-46 First Flight

The parts suppliers are having issues of timely delivery for essential refueling tools, as supplier design changes are encountered coming from both the military and Boeing engineering. This rolls back the time further as they are coping with the now tightened schedule. In response Boeing has deployed its personnel to various affected parts suppliers for shoring up critical mission parts, such as the aerial boom and the wing's flexible refueling pods undergoing newly required upgrades passed through Boeing to the supplier. Eight months of delay has been absorbed through the program from waiting for its suppliers who are making the necessary changes, thus making the initial fully operational first flight targeted for later in June. The Pentagon and Boeing are hoping for an end of June date going fully operational on the initial fully equipped test Tanker.

But a rule of thumb from "Winging IT" says 60 more days past middle June is likely, considering all the identified improved parts in the pipeline, and as all military systems become compliant with Boeing systems. Full implementation is yet to be achieved at this time until all parts and programming, flows into the assembly of the first four test frames. The Tanker status is in a "normal first time airplane manufacturing phase", as it experiences issues encountered for any military venture. Nothing here is showing up as a project stopper. The pentagon and congress should be pleased at this point, and they will go after "The Tanker  Project loose ends, conducting its part with due diligence.

However, Boeing is saying and the Air Force concurs, who is working closely side by side on this first flying copy, there is enough time to meet its 2017 deadline for an on time project conclusion. The news in this case, is really an inside look at any project churning out new technology and new systems concepts. The main understanding is realised by both parties. The estimated "contingent time slack" is gone, if it is to deliver in 2017. Both Boeing and the Air Force believe any show stoppers have been dealt with while the product schedule can be maintained, as the airframe is loaded with its all the secret systems. At this point I assume those systems have been ground tested or flown on test bed aircraft long ago. It remains to test on the actual first KC-46 frame fully loaded. Then it will build the first bunch.

Having the program this far along with so few major change-orders is a good indication the purchasing concept of using a well tested commercial frame is avoiding many of the time draining problems arising from an all new frame. Airbus is still working out its kinks on the A400 multi-tasking military transport after many years. Boeing will have proven engines, wings and 787-like avionics going in its favor before delving into the plug and play schemes brought on board  for the tanker. This is no F-35 clean sheet attempt. It purports to be the best of both worlds, proven ruggedness and all new advancements. Its a perfect military requirement.

The 787-9 is the Giant Fuel Price Slayer

It is known that lower fuel price gives comparable status for the 777-200 with the 787 -9. In fact  Seeking Alpha Link has expressed with diagramming on whether the 777-200 can beat the 787-9 with lower fuel prices considering passenger load factors. Passenger load is defined as the number of seats filled on average compared to the number of seats available. If a 777-200 seats 316 persons and the load factor averages 85%, then it sells 268 seats each trip. If an airline sells that average, then the same number of seats sold fills 91% of a 294 seat 787-9.  The point is made through graphing, when the 777-200 at some point intersects with 787-9 profitability after fueling at the current lower fuel price. The article makes this point well.



The reality is what is facing airline research teams when buying the 787-9. The 787-9 is the more real option in the long run. Prices will rise because Jet A potential is finite.

Simple observations:

• Finite Oil Reserve
• Fuel by Crops becomes more expensive from production expense.
• Increased passenger demands increases fuel prices.

The theme above is fuel prices will naturally rise significantly and airlines know this fact. The current fuel price dip is a unnatural geo political economic condition brought by market imposition from oil producing nations. 

The main concept for buying the 787 during lower fuel price period comes from the over-arching theme, efficiency is for higher fuel prices. The 787-9 is the most efficient wide body flying.. It will slay Giant fuel prices. The airlines know this graphically, statistically and profitably. It was not made for lower fuel prices which have a temporary nature. It was made for swinging at high fuel price fastballs with the fat part of the bat.

Seeking Alpha feature goes to the detail making sure the reader understand whether KLM is better off with its 777-200 or 787-9. My answer is no, the 777-200 is only a placeholder for the 787-9 arrival. If it is chasing the moving low fuel price target keep the 777-200. Low fuel prices are gone by 2016. An order filled takes five plus years where chances are fuel prices are doubled over today's prices. The doubling fuel price effect hits the fat part of the 787-9 bat, and all today's graphs become a moot point. Where they become only an important what if graph.

KLM should be pondering a 787-10 purchase if it perceives any passenger growth within its business model. At 323 passengers, the 787-10 is within a passenger step growth pattern. Buying the 787-9 having a 91% capacity average indicates a need for the 787-10 if KLM grows it market. The 8,000 mile range 787-10 will touch all its current route destination with greater capacity than both the 777-200 and 787-9. The stable compliment is part of a natural passenger growth progression as the travel world continues to grow. The higher fuel prices puts a shine on the corporate apple if equipped right.

Boeing's 100 787 Order Year Depends On Emirates and the Devil

Hainan    30
Emirates 70
Total      100

It is a stretch thinking Emirates will come through in 2015, booking more 787. However the robust and trouble free last twelve months sounds promising for Boeing. Tied up in the Boeing order quandary is Emirates penchant for the A380 and Rolls Royce engines. They, Emirates wants the A380 NEO with rolls engine. Dangling a new A350 order in front of Airbus as an incentive since it cancelled an Airbus order for 70 last year. Is this a form of airplane thuggery or just a way  of showing money talks as the saying goes?

Somehow Boeing got messed up in these dynamics with its 787 offering. No other Airbus A380 customer really cares about what Emirates wants as a counterpoint for additional Airbus A380 purchases. Also, at some point the whole Boeing strategy could come unraveled with an additional 200 or more A380 ordered by Emirates. Simply, Emirates three years down the road may decided having 440 A380 on the books is not such a grand idea after-all. That becomes a big Airbus risk with Emirates. They are hesitant ramping up a Rolls equipped A380 NEO for the sake of one customer ideas. Emirates counters with "we are talking to your arch rival Boeing" on some more 787, savvy.

Airbus is between a hard place and a rock with the A380s. It has a dwindling backlog and a saturation of capable airports for landing the giants. Emirates offers a compliant hub for that matter, but that only represents one half of the travel side for a connection. It still has to fly to a destination capable of handling the A380 that may already be at max airport capacity. There are many moving elements when ordering 200 or more A380NEO's fitted with Rolls Royce engines. Emirates may not trump the market with its own strategy. The 70 A350 it had canceled, may stay cancelled, and the threat of a Boeing order may become a reality. As much as Airbus would like never turning down a customer, it may have to to save itself from its own greedy aspirations, and from ruining the company in the long run.

Two hundred more A380 NEO ordered doesn't take Airbus past a breakeven point for the program, after adding in NEO cost and testing resources to the program. A NEO A380 comes too soon in the A380 life cycle, as the first of its type are too new and are far away in time from replacing during its normal life cycle. Follow-on orders, after a Emirates A380 NEO initial order are non existent. A prospective 200 Emirates order is a non starter for Airbus, and will drive any profitability to the loss column. The threat of a Boeing order is the bait where Airbus should consider this as a rational consideration. Emirates already cancelled Airbus once. Boeing shouldn't never count on seventy 787 from Emirates. It should count on selling 60 787 worldwide with its other customers for the remainder of 2015.

The flirtatious order book for Boeing is making a deal with the devil. They should message Emirates as a serious contender who doesn't want to be played with faux kisses and winks, as the real goal of Emirates is ruining Airbus for its own gain.

Boeing Needs A Cross-Over

Boeing couldn't build the 787-300 before it built the 787-800. Its common sense, establishing the benchmark first before defining a cross-over model. A 787-300 had nothing to hold it up like a book-end. No need for a cross-over in 2005. When considering an off-road vehicle or a rugged extra wide cab ranch pickup truck while first building a crossover wouldn't make any sense. How can you make a crossover for suburbia without a trail rated jeep coming first?

Boeing is building a single-aisle 737-900 NG-Max for the urban sensibilities until the ultimate interurban transporter is made. It must look and act like the 787, while becoming the 757 Super Utility Modality known as SUM, and act like a compliant business tool. It’s the SUM of all its parts from Boeing that is what's missing! The venerable 757 is going to the scrap heap in a workmanlike manner. Boeing accidentally tapped the inter-urban SUM market a long time ago and it misidentified the big opportunity by canceling the 757 in 2005. Now it’s faced with a European knock-off jet in the likes of an A321. Boeing, having no articulation on the subject other than "we're good with the 737 and current 787 line-up".

I give Boeing three slaps in the forehead, and three consecutive expletives of "Come On" awarded in a row with its 757 public sentiments. Outstanding, missing how the much loved the 757 is and was! Boeing doesn't need another 757 for its replacement. It needs the abandoned 787-3 remade. A twin aisle replicator for passengers who are dependent on business and pleasure rewards. The airplane crossover concept is a brilliant reminder of soccer moms and grocery getting in the ground world. Big enough to haul the neighbors to school and awesome enough to go on vacation, looking somewhat like the newly Iconic looking 787-9.

Crossing over from single-aisle two duo aisle isn't hard to do, "Neil Sedaka". Boeing needs this gap filler taking off from medium-sized airports going all the way to San Jose while queuing the music along the way. South West Airlines are you listening? It could take you all the way to South West of Hawaii.

The assigned spot is 220 seats, the assigned range is 6,000 miles. It’s a crossover from single to dual aisle. It has the quaintness of single-aisle gawking and the room of seven across for urban sensibilities. It hangs 100 million on the airline customer for each replication it purchases. It crosses-over everything good about Boeing's manufacturing conceptualization even though it is not as wide as the 787-8 or its counterpart. It’s very roomy for the number of seats, and it makes money for everyone even the passengers having sensibly priced tickets for the same commonalities with the 787 family.

Having it bigger than the 737-9, doesn't mean the 737-9 extra-long single aisle is dead. Nor does it threaten the 787-800. The 787-3 has the 787 aggressive design signature for long haul, yet providing the inter-urban frivolity for city hopping, in high density 1-5 thousand mile routes. This crossover is what an airline makes of it, as it defines the low cost of operation.

“It was once stated the 737 single aisle would not benefit from the lighter weight frame of plastics for the offset of development cost compared with the efficiencies gained from new technological advances on metal frames. It was also observed at the time, the 787 was still an unproven concept, and the risk was too high to go with all plastic airplane models top to bottom. Wise people thought the 787 must matriculate to its completeness and demonstrate performance maximums, before proceeding to the next model. This is witnessed with both metal 737 Max and Partial metal 777X models. Boeing's approach is cautious on technology implementation since its "787 Moon Shot". They have the Golden Fleece in hand with the 787 and will not go hunting for another overhaul of design and airplane evolution in my own lifetime.

A 787-3 “new version” for medium body design will have added manufacturing tooling cost for both the supplier and Boeing. But it's not groundbreaking, thus less expensive than doing a 787-3 in 2005. It has all the carryforwards from both the MAX, 787 and 777X programs. It has all the designs lessons learned from the last 10 years. They have the opportunity of repaying already sunk cost on advance technology needing repayment. Boeing could use a crossover program development accessing paid for technology, which it installed in the 787. Engine technology keeps getting better every day. A downsized 787-8 and upsized Max-9 has a 1,000 airplane sales target which would turn a profit for Boeing and compliment both models. All Boeing has to do is find charter customers from China to San Jose within in the Pacific Rim to make it so.

It becomes a financial shim wedged in, securing both new models from the Airbus nitpicking on the edges. It's why they call it, the 757 the Gap filler for so long. Now that the 767 has stopped commercial passenger production and the 787 replaces it. The Gap must be addressed before further market erosion occurs. Go ahead, call it a "Gap Filler", cannon fodder, or a lost production leader. The gap must be filled! It’s just as important as the front line players when churning out numbers. My own opinion within is just an "I told you so" effort for Boeing, and having said so, I can sleep better tonight. A 787-3 is an investment for selling all models of aircraft at a higher rate, rather than compartmentalizing a 787-3 as a no-go because it doesn't stand on its own. This is a false assumption because Boeing is a SUM of all its parts! A 787-3 revised model then becomes the SUM of all Boeing's parts making the corporation more successful. But make it a mid-body, two-aisle interurban, and hub-busting mover. Ryanair’s expansion is a plan solved with the 787-3.

Why I Couldn't Sell The 787 Dream

Great Expectations destroys the heart. When you have in your hand the rarest and the best object and another turns and decides on objects of less value. It becomes a tortuous moment coming from another's under appreciation. They chose the knock-off copy because they liked the look of a big bus.

The second most destructive nature emerges called "lack of patience". Selling 30 787-9 at $7.7 billion to Hainan Airlines takes immense patience.  The airlines must check it twice, which takes time, and its rightly so for any investment in its future. Due diligence is a wheel stone turning "oh so slowly and grinding oh so fine". The grist of the deal is turning into powder while I stand-by waiting to fill a spreadsheet. Patience is not my strong suit when billions are at stake. By now you should know the inner turmoil going on, is like what a waiting father has for a first born to cry. Knowing the mother's pain and experiencing the helplessness to do anything at the same time. A salesman's agony is silent and private. A suit can go limp and falls to floor with nothing to support it. The person inside evaporates before your eyes when all this waiting creates an inextinguishable void. Impatience has claimed another victim. A salesperson's passion would be my undoing.

The remedy for having Great Expectations with having a lack of patience comes from silly thoughts.

A number is just a number and nothing more, is a great remedy?

However, we all know numbers destroys the heart when they fail to exist during a sale. Having no number becomes the most important item of discontent. The expectation is now set. The order book is set at five 787's in 2015 , and with applied patience it will swell to 35 787's. The suit picks itself off the floor while standing up on that promise. Patience returns fueling its expectation. Hainan will save the Boeing sales team from a collective suit collapse, while it further spurs on more 787 expectation. Even though I can't suffer the damage of my resolve in a loss, I celebrate completed expectation in a win. Concluding, patience is the great motivator of expectation of which I have little of.

Boeing's 787 Four Year Total Orderbook Flow

A review of 787 numbers of sorts. The Cost of Goods Sold journey must take into account raw inventory numbers with fixed and variable cost. The complexities of COGS is broken down by unit cost and averages or factors are applied to any build. Further statistical analysis would calculate application rates within a years build cycle making for a quick estimation or in some cases an actual cost derived from formulation. In this simple case I only look at the big picture. Each category below happens within the same year.

Notes:

• As an example 2011 starts with the ending 2010 order book count  and sliding this number for the beginning number starting the  2011 backlog.
• Boeing Delivered only 3 787 in 2011, reducing available orders to a paltry 733 during its production start-up.
• Orders continued to flow in during the 365 day period in 2011, increasing the factory number of Backlog to  a net number of  778 which is an overall impact of a plus 42 for the year.  
• The final note is for the Backlog Delta or the change in Backlog at year's end. The year 2011 saw a backlog increase of 42 during its start-up production years 2010-2011.  The year 2013 also increase the net back log by 118 787's  during that year where the 787-10's were ordered. The years 2014 and 2015 , so far have shown negative net backlog numbers before any significant 787 orders are book during 2015. The last last periods are very strong with production.

Soon there will be 30 more 787-9 booked in 2015 by Hainan Airlines China. The year remains young and another 60  787's  could be booked maintaining a generally positive 787 Backlog by the end of 2015. Overall the 787 backlog has grown since the start of its production in 2011 by 83 more ordered than delivered through the reported 2011-2015 period.  The four year mark numbers are a very healthy sign the plane has caught-on as a "preferred aircraft". Boeing seeks more validation during 2015 by increasing its 787 backlog ever so slightly. I believe they will be able to do this in the second half of 2015.   

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015        Total Beg B-log 736 778 773 891 842 736 Delivered 3 46 65 114 25 253 Ordered 45 41 183 65 5 339 Ending B-log 778 773 891 842 822 822 Back-Log Delta 42 -5 118 -49 -21 85

Summary:

Total Ordered            To Date:   1075 

Total Delivered          To Date:    -253

Total Aircraft delivery remaining: 822

Data sources from nyc787.blogspot.com and Boeing .com