Not So Fast My Friends The Board Wants Time To Consider Ryanair Expansion

Counter Point

It's a direct acknowledgement for Norwegian Air's loss during its expansion period, the board of Ryanair has backed off it's own CEO O'Leary's enthusiasm with a "Not So Fast" curve ball on any delusions of grandeur during wide body talks. Oh I know they said on Monday the words "Transatlantic", and "wide body assessment" in the same sentence. It matched O'Leary's assault forward banter on all engines of aviation. However, another meeting and another twenty cigars later Ryanair had not aligned its stars and planets or for that matter. Even the moon is out of phase with the board's sentiment. O'leary said it like a CEO, "they F***-*p.



What is actually in play, is all of the above during this executive storming period. It's a good thing too, a good storming session leads to norming and later great teamwork for all players in the meeting. Ryanair has five years for the Transatlantic gambit. It has another year of order pondering at its own pacing for the expense of it all. It already has the 170 Max spigot turned on for the flight line. Ryanair just took the ice bucket challenge and dumped the whole thing on its head. Even O'Leary is enjoying his run as CEO just the same. If he is to gain more clarity on the expansion concept he needs to get his ducks all in a row for the board to light its cigars again.

• First, the Norwegian Air business model must play it out with its wide bodies.
• 2nd, get those Max's flowing to Ireland.
• 3rd Generate increased revenue and increased profits (A board preference)
• 4th  Find a viable sweet spot for ordering when all these other items are on track.
• Finally, Boeing make us an offer we can't refuse.

The "not so fast pitch" won out in the board room. O'Leary is the right leader at the right time, but the board is  keeping the corporate head honcho watching for the "whites of their eyes". It is more important than charging the smoke and flash and incoming competition. Ryanair wants to counter punch the market after the market shifting is complete. In five years it will have a proven track record of its strategy. They will have more purchase power in two years for a wide body booking. Boeing will have a smaller backlog squeezing against its own sales team. In 2018 let's turn O'Leary loose and attack the Transatlantic market. Hear Hear, its a grand green day!

Ryan Air Ponders The Pond (Motley Fool Update)

Atlantic travel is a becoming idea for Ryanair. Transatlantic voyages are just a beck and call away from passengers if using Ryanair new equipment. Boeing has already built half its 787-8 backlog. Jet Star and Norwegian have shown how to place 331 and 291 seats in a 787-8 respectively. O'Leary knows what the second half of Boeing's 787-8 backlog will look like at the end of  his own five year plan. If Boeing builds just 50 787-8's a year, Ryanair could be at the head of the 787-8 line in 2019 if it orders this year.

If they wait another year before ordering 787-8's, they may get jumped by others adding to the 2019 backlog scramble. The 787-9 is a big seller and will gain orders each year keeping its pacing with a larger backlog than the 787-8. The 787-10 will come on in Charleston in 2020. Boeing needs more 787-8 orders for the year 2020 booked, sooner rather than later. Ryanair knows this and will be looking for a special incentive deals from Boeing for some 787-8's for that time slot. The question is always how many do you want from Boeing? The reply is always what kind of of a deal can you put together if we order 20,40 or 50 787-8's.

The problem for O'Leary is knowing that waiting too long may increase a new Boeing 787-8 backlog before he can pull the order trigger. Hurrying up may cause him to lose out on a pricing deal. The answer is found when other airlines make market orders. If someone places a 787-8 in a large number, during 2015, Ryanair will jump-in with its order soon after another first big order announcement. I will now guess O'Leary will buy 25 787-8's to start with and then option for 25 later on before the market fills Boeing's backlog. It will make sense for its European network and North America connections when crossing the Atlantic pond.

Five Days After Winging It Blog Comes this from Motley Fool

Look Out American Airlines, Ryanair is Entering Your Airspace!

"For the business case to make sense, Ryanair must buy planes that are fuel-efficient but also reasonably priced. Ryanair operates an all-Boeing fleet today, and CEO Michael O'Leary has expressed interest in Boeing's Dreamliner for long-haul operations -- just not at the going price!"

Airplane Wars Reflect The Production of Liberty Ships From WWII

Finding a way for the introduction of ships in an airplane blog is enjoyable. Ships are my second major love when considering the human race of achievement. Liberty Ships from World War II are a marvel almost forgotten. I boarded one in the summer of 1994 while in San Diego Harbour, before it was to travel to San Francisco Bay as a permanent display. The more I scrambled about the ship the more I was amazed at its capacity for a smallish ship compared with today's modern cargo ship that takes months to build.



The American industrial muscle built 2,710 ships during the four years from 1941 to 1945. The ship I went on was built in 1945, the last generation Liberty. There were flaws in any Liberty ship when plates buckled or cracked. Wartime causes precision to flee, requiring a more generous tolerance for its engines from direct steam power to a steam turbine configuration. The whole point was to build so many of these expendable ships as possible, before the Germans could sink them. What emerged was the Swiss Army Knife of Cargo carrying ships and a victory during WWII.

Only One of Two remaining Liberty Ship at Age 70

My San Diego Liberty Ship Tour Example: SS John W Brown

WWII Float Line of Liberty Ships

Boeing has begun its own Wartime Effort with its production map, supply chain, and workforce. They plan to increase the 737 line to 52 a month while introducing the MAX simultaneously. The plan is to ramp up 777X production during testing phase while building the 777 300 ER production at full speed. Boeing plans for the 787 coming out its ears in Everett, and Charleston. I am guessing without knowledge on hand, but just guessing that Boeing will Build the 787-8 in Everett with the 787-9. I am also thinking Charleston will have both the 787-9 and -10 on its hands until further orders are obtained. Boeing is in a production fight with its strategic production numbers continuing during model transition from old to new.   

The Boeing Liberty Ship equivalent is in the 737 Max with some incredible differences. Boeing has time for 737 precision and state of the art accessories, where the Liberty goal was make it float and sail it. The 737 has the advantage of innovation over its competitor. However, time is the combatant in this case. It needs a wartime effort to do all things to all airplanes, and do it well beyond the call of duty. 

Here are the time fronts of this war:

• 737NG - MAX Transition
• 777 300ER- 777X Transition
• 787-8 through 787-10 production integration
• Every Ship Counts/ no losses... 
• Continuous production without pause/no stops

Tactics:

• Congruent delivery pace
• Stable Supply Chain
• No Testing Show Stoppers
• Always Exceeding Customer Expectations

So the Liberty Ship example was not lost in history's back pages. Boeing is using the production mentality as if it were a wartime paradigm in today's marketplace.

The 737NG "Liberty" Production Line Renton, Wa

 

The Everett 777 Production Line

The Everett 787 Production Line

Last But Not Surely Not The Least: The Charleston 787 Production Pace

The Game Of Chicken After The Max/Neo

Who will go first Boeing or Airbus when it comes to single aisle aspiration. The risk identified is on the table is "a stagnation for single aisle ordering" as the market matures by 2024. A clear risk is hanging on today's technology with today's frame could make added value advances not enough when those advances are plugged in for buying a competitive airframes. Boeing is probably considering a possibility for the Max follow-on model, but it must be a significant change, and exciting for the market place. The real game of chicken starts with the secret places each frame maker in storing. If Airbus goes first or tries to extend the NEO theme beyond ten years they may give Boeing a window of opportunity for its next market buster after the Max's market consolidates. The current Boeing consensus is "Dreamlining" the MAX will not be an efficient use of plastic on a single aisle form. Airbus stole the march on Boeing introducing the NEO when Boeing thought NG was good enough for another 8-10 years, but the Neo changed the single aisle market dynamics, for Boeing as it had to react quickly with the Max advances.

Everything has now settled in on norming with this current NEO/Max standards after the last four years of Corporate storming over the single aisle market. This sets the stage for the next game of "Airplane Chicken", who will go first and who should go first on the next evolution? Before we get into that, some bullet point considerations will guide the General Decision Making (GDM) before the Strategic Decision Making (SDM). These points will evolve and develop soon or if it has already been developed for the GDM realm.

GDM "The What" Phase 2014- 2024

• What the Market wants most?
• What the market needs most?
• What are the competition's capabilities?
• What are this corporation's capabilities?
• What Engineering aspects can't or won't be duplicated?
• What changes aviation or shifts the paradigm most to this Corporate advantage?

Then comes the game of Chicken phase from the SDM Bucket.

SDM "The When" Phase

• When going forward for next single aisle go first, identify this risk and reward?
• When going forward go second, identify this risk and reward?
• When will the aviation paradigm shift, and if so is will this corporation be the catalyst for the shift?
• When are all development options on the table?
• When going second with the MAX how did that work out in the long run?
• When going first with 787 how did that work against the competition?

The game of chicken is complicated and corporate heads will roll if they get the next game wrong. Going first on the next single aisle reinvention will have the risk of copycat issues coming from competitors. The corporation could also be a central item in press for another slew of wrong reasons (ie. 787 project). Going second makes no new friends and catching up is high risk too. Either way having no guts gives you no glory, and playing it safe is just second place. Boeing must steal the march on Airbus in this game of chicken after the Max run reaches its completeness, and then it must go first with an all new single aisle remake.

The argument against just adding on new advances on a base concept is a risk in itself at many levels. An all new single aisle is a matter of when not if for each maker. Airbus has a good position of leveraging its technology into a revolutionary single aisle but does not have the risk neve in its nature. Explained another way. Airbus doesn't do anything within its design inspiration that can be incorporated into any new new airplane model unless its an older retired risk advancement.

Boeing has developed a maturation process for retiring risks for completely new technology where it will take its new technology off of its shelf (its wing) from R&D and make it work in all new designs. It has positioned itself going further on each succeeding generation. The Max program is an anomaly out of forced play from Airbus Neo program. The Max program needed to match the Neo and many cases exceeded it through the 787 program spin-offs. The Next Boeing single aisle is on track to astound the market and stump Airbus. The question is what will Boeing develop that Airbus can't copy without years of effort and billions spent?

The next Boeing single aisle will need three areas of attention they are as follows:

• Weight Breakthrough
• Power Breakthrough
• Aero Design Breakthrough

Boeing will be looking for a single aisle "Moon shot". Starting with weight is an interesting proposition. Every part on the aircraft has weight. Including the dirt in the upholstery and carpet. Airlines have to compensate with what a passenger puts in its luggage or the diet a passenger isn't on. I am surprised airlines don't put a passenger on a scale when buying a travel ticket. 

"Stand here on this square with your carry-on, purse-backpack and luggage. You weigh 110 kilos. Our rate is $3.89 per Kilo for this 3,000 mile trip, your ticket price. is..." message received, go on a diet wear light shoes  and brush your teeth. Also buy cheap clothing at your destination. That is if you weigh about an overall 242 lbs of travel weight. You have 60 lbs travel accessories! Actually passengers become, is flying weight.

This means airlines who can strip the most weight off from the airframe and its customers are a leg up on the competition. My leg weighs about 34 lbs or 15 kilos or having a portion cost of $58.35USD for this flight. The airline who builds the lightest airplane will save its customers an arm and a leg buying a ticket. Boeing will come out using a new composite material before committing to an all new single aisle plastic body project.

Power Breakthrough is happening now, and will continue forward as new innovations parts materials and and engineered solutions for optimization of an engine performance. Currently GE is testing a ceramic material that can withstand extreme temperatures.

Dayton Daily News:

"Specifically, GE is developing jet engine components made from ceramic matrix composites containing silicon carbide ceramic fibers and ceramic resin that are lighter weight, more durable and can withstand hotter temperatures than their metal substitutes, said Jon Blank, chief of engineering for GE Aviation’s CMC laboratory in Evendale."

In fact the MAX engine, a CFM will be a direct beneficiary from GE mastery of its advancements. This engine will go beyond the CFM Leap horizon. The power is fluxing towards a better engine for a lighter airplane fully loaded. The When strategic deadline is about ten years from now. with a remarkable 10% over today's latest engines. The Quality Management model of "Always Improving" has lit the eternal flame in the engine world. Not only will  it incorporate less weight, but more tolerant parts with heat and stress. The jet engine is far from done improving. It's about halfway there from the first applied German engine in 1944 to the last GE or Rolls in the year 2100. By then a new power may emerge which could be neither rocket or jet. I look

Aero design is Boeing's strong suite. Airbus has figured out pop sickle stick wings can be improved. Japan is on the same page with Boeing and is an exciting partner building special wings. How deep has wing building gone? Try reading about laminar flow technology and you find very little. Boeing has most of the data on these physics. Its the birds natural secrets found within its flight feathers. Long ago, in the middle ages, science pictured a flapping wing frame driven by a man. The human race has learned it doesn't need to flap to fly. It needs to glide as if weightless. Airplanes fly like the albatross who are adverse to any kind of flapping. An Albatross glides for days on wind currents. Science has also exposed laminar flow dynamics. Boeing has scoped this science and technology and it is expanding laminar flow onto its next bird and during 777X testing or 787-9 operations. The next single aisle will out with some laminar flow technology on the frame which is not currently found on the Max.

Body, nose and tail doctors are in the house. Boeing is known for doing CAD magic on body efficiency. The 747 iconic nose is a part of history books. The new 787 tail is raw raw draft of what's next, and is receiving step changes in the lab. Coming to the body I will insert this question and I have mentioned this before,  somewhere last year. What about golf balls? I mean all those little tiny dimples on golf balls? Why can't Boeing test using micro dimples on one side of the wing or all sides of the body, making a single aisle slip through the air by 5% better with dimples? It comes down to these kind of questions. I am sure Boeing has tested this physics eccentricity, and knows what it will do with this application. One paint job could mess up dimple effectiveness. The answer might be in the paint gun itself giving the aircraft an aerodynamic texture with dimples? Who Knows anyway? The answers are being added onto a single aisle "Best Generation" aircraft. One that will be hard to copy by others. 

Good Afternoon Vietnam Airlines.

Your 787-9, #VN-A861 is in the assembly arena in Everett, Wa. May 31 , 2015, as it has sketched this date for its first delivery.  








280 friends can fly anywhere on this advanced jet design. Six weeks later from now, it will be in Vietnam Air Space.

Economy Class 211 seats  in a 3-3-3 seating config

Premium Economy Class 35 seats in a 2-3-2

Business Class with 28 seats in a 1-2-1 layout

Japan Has Another Giant Crock Pot Built For Curing the 787

What if Kawasaki Heavy Industry could cure out 14 787 bodies a month? Could Boeing reciprocate and build those 168 787's a year? That's what KFI has just announced is a plant expansion to do 14 787 bodies a month.

Then there is competitor plastics plant, Mitsubishi, who makes the 787 wings. Boeing is going long in Seattle with its new 777 wing plant just across the door from the 777X Everett facilities. What shapes up for the customer is a plan by Boeing after talking to Kawasaki and convincing them to expand is a plan to do over 280 wide bodies a year in Boeing's long line of wide bodies by 2020. Consider exclusive builds for the 787-10 in Charleston SC and going with two 787 lines in Everett Wa in a two by two construction phase. One line for the 787-8 and one for the 787-9, and oh yeah, one for the 777X in 2018 with all its imagineering currently going into place in Everett. Boeing will build at a clip 64 787-8, 6 787-9 and 4 more 787-10 in Charleston each month. Boeing will build up to 10 777X each month when production dials in the frame build. By 2022 in just seven short years the build rate of 24 wide bodies a month will be achieved. Twelve monthly cycles will deliver over 288 Wide Bodies a year.

Add the 52 a month single aisle number for the 737, and Boeing will reach 624 737's a year by 2018. That equals an astounding 918 deliveries in total per year by 2022, not counting other odds and ends on the delivery dock.

Giant Japanese oven gives Boeing room to ramp up 787 output

Watch the supplier first for they will commit first when they ramp up call comes out for go time. Kawasaki has ramped up first for Boeing. The supply chain is more flexible in 2015 than it was in 2007. Boeing is shooting the moon at the production point, and it doesn't care what Airbus thinks. 918 plus a Dozen  747 a year will make it an even 930 units in delivery a year by 2022.

Semantics of "The 787 Class"

A twin engine wide body is the Class Identifiers. The members of that class go from 787-777 Boeing types and A330-A350 Airbus types. What difference does this make? Hillary Clinton banked on that term out of context. However, airplane class is more defined and an important verbiage in airplane wars. Since Airbus has delivered its first two A350-900 the verbiage has changed abruptly using the "In Its Class", qualifier since Airbus first A350 delivery.

So says Etihad and a plethora of others since the Airbus A350 delivered-(linked):

Etihad Brings Its Fancy Dreamliner to Washington, D.C. for Open Skies Battle

Skift article quote:

“As the most technologically advanced aircraft in its class, the Boeing 787 will reduce the operating costs and carbon emissions on our Washington, D.C. route and provide maximum efficiency and reliability,” says James Hogan, President and Chief Executive Officer of Etihad Airways."

The game has changed since the Airbus A350 Delivery going to Qatar. The change is with those key words mentioning the Boeing 787 as "the most technologically advanced airplane in its class". Even the A350 can't claim that unless it wants a law suite in the world court system making an attempt denying Boeing has a more advanced product. The Boeing goading has started through its customers, like Etihad. They do have a remarkable 787-9, and are proud of it as they should be. Those little semantics phrases pop-up during press releases and will continue to do so from here to eternity.

What's so remarkable about the 787 are several factors Airbus could not match.

• Wing Technology from the 787 is most advanced and better than what Airbus could offer.

• Boeing's Engine duopoly with GE and Rolls Royce where Airbus is a one hit wonder with just Rolls.

• Core technology throughout the 787 architecture, Where ErrorBus failed to duplicate.

• I can't remember if Airbus touts its cabin pressure at 6,000 feet? Boeing Does! However, Airbus does eventually mention 6,000 feet cabin pressure but does not tout its existence as Boeing has accomplished. Bleed Air systems promotes more kerosene fumes in cabin air, that's a fact Jack. 

• Boeing's direct electrical power to all systems and no bleed air by-pass or hydraulic systems, Errorbus is the older power robbing bleed-air-bypass with all those contaminants pumped into the cabin area by leakage even with extensive filtering that it requires.

These are just a few of the most advanced items on a lengthy checklist of the most advanced application not found on the Airbus Class Twin Engine Wide Body. They pulled off-the-shelf its many tricks and advances in the Airbus technology bin. However, they did not go beyond with anything new like Boeing accomplished, Remember Boeing built a plastic airplane before Airbus so they can't claim the most advanced Plastic body. Airbus was left with the size element once more, going an inch here and an inch there and making bank with the distance of a pinky finger.

The Etihad 787-9 is a marvel in beauty and technology. It is the consummate or proverbial masterpiece going to D.C. It is a proud aircraft worth the price of admission. Every molecule of technology goes towards efficiency, passenger comforts and airline operations. It is the most advanced airline in its class.

Qatar Has The Boeing Data As It Compares The A350

It took me a moment pondering the wisdom of the Qatar move where it replaced the 787-8 with its A350-900 on the Frankfurt route and then the light came on. Qatar wants to know how the two types compare on same routes, distances and operation and who will come out on top? However, it should compare the 787-9 with the A350-900 for a comparable assessment. But it can factor down the 787-8 efficiency on this route, since the 787-9 is a little more efficient in service. This inservice comparison is important for Qatar for its operational decision-making and future ordering. How does the A350-900 compare in the operational expense category with the 787-8? They have years worth of seasonal data on the 787-8 and now the A350-900 will be gathering its seasonal data for Qatar.

Of course this will lead into another blog later when comparing products, so keep watching for comparables after two years in operation or until the end of 2016. The next tier of testing is situational efficiency for the 787-8 where it will be placed on marginal Qatar routes and determine if it makes a real time difference on those routes. Its no slight to Boeing pulling the 787-8 off the Frankfurt Route since Qatar has immense information for the 787-8 for that particular route. It becomes important how  the aircraft affects Qatar's profits on roads less travelled. I believe they will be pleasantly impressed with this next level of real time data, as they travel the secondary markets with the 787-8. They will make money and fill the airplanes with Qatar's style and reputation for excellence. Airbus has a stout order book for Qatar with 80 of its type all together. Boeing has less than half that many in total ordered with 30 units. It stands to reason for Qatar routing the 43 each A350-900 and 37 each A350-1000 on its premium routes out of its abundant Airbus order book.

Even though Boeing placed and delivered early its first 20 aircraft, Qatar needs to know what it has done after ordering the Airbus ships in abundance. Qatar is playing the part of divide orders and conquer pricing. They won't be ordering the 787 for awhile. Hence, Airbus aircraft assignment will be relinquished to its most plush routes and Boeing will go on its utility 2nd tier routes. The Comparison of aircraft remains important for Boeing as more A350 fill the roster. I am not holding my breath on a reversal of strategy from Qatar. It would take a calamity on their part with Airbus to change fortunes with its order book. Airbus is at center stage with Qatar over the next five years as Boeing's 787 continues the ironing out of the 787 family. Competitors to Qatar will influence a Qatar change of heart more than  experiencing Airbus' Faults. The long haul of operation will define both aircraft where the A350 has just started its shakedown journey towards refinement.

Annoucement: "The 757 is Reborn Again" just name dropping.

Hey Boeing Do A 737-757 or 757-737 (Flash Update)

WSJ: Flash Quote:
"Ron Baur, United’s vice president of fleet, said the airline was looking at both the A321LR now being developed by Airbus and an all-new Boeing jet that the U.S. company is sketching out."

United Continental Studying Replacements for Fleet’s Boeing 757s

The Boeing pencil pushing is at Max capacity today as United has left the door open for a Continental Buster, Ocean Spanning Single aisle behemoth or duo aisle 787 sub class, to replace its nearly 1000 757 still in service. Airbus was quick with its insertion of a A321 NEO before Boeing got the memo. Customers want a bridge from here to there. From single aisle city pairings to duo aisle range sensibilities. It doesn't have to go beyond 6,000 miles nor does it need to carry 250 passengers, but it needs to fill the gap between single and duo aisle operations. Boeing can get there faster with a single aisle 757 like makeover with new engines, avionics and aerodynamic designing. Or it can go deep in the playbook with a 787 mini all carbon structure. Speed of time tells me metal is the soup de jour for any new offering.

How would this play off the Boeing resourcing with the 777X Project going full throttle? The sketch artist are answering this question for United-Continental at this time. Mums the word on the Boeing street corner. They have three years to come up with a viable offer having a five year delivery plan. Airbus has moved the clock forward on Boeing with the A321NEO.

Cause and effect problems are under consideration. A Boeing like fleet is tapped into by a A321NEO order. Next comes the commonality issue for the airline and another card falls for Airbus. Follow-on A350 orders and so forth.  Boeing needs to defend its Seattle citadel. Whether they want to or not they need this 757 replacement or gap filler to defend what it has built these last ten years. The sunk cost is the replacement gap filler penalty from the 757 design board, and the MAX CAD machines. Boeing needs to parry off the A321 because they are breaching Boeing's gap exposure. Its not a hard choice for Boeing to go ahead but its a hard and costly thing to implement. However, most of the technology lies on its shelf at this time. Boeing will fill this need sooner rather than later once it identifies the cost, customers, and construction.

Boeing really needs this Goldenliner

737 And Nothing But 737

A Photo Tribute from Airways News

737 Eye Candy:

 Credit Airway News Story and Photos By Brandon Farris / Published March 6, 2015


See the whole show at the above link: