Semantics of "The 787 Class"

A twin engine wide body is the Class Identifiers. The members of that class go from 787-777 Boeing types and A330-A350 Airbus types. What difference does this make? Hillary Clinton banked on that term out of context. However, airplane class is more defined and an important verbiage in airplane wars. Since Airbus has delivered its first two A350-900 the verbiage has changed abruptly using the "In Its Class", qualifier since Airbus first A350 delivery.

So says Etihad and a plethora of others since the Airbus A350 delivered-(linked):

Etihad Brings Its Fancy Dreamliner to Washington, D.C. for Open Skies Battle

Skift article quote:

“As the most technologically advanced aircraft in its class, the Boeing 787 will reduce the operating costs and carbon emissions on our Washington, D.C. route and provide maximum efficiency and reliability,” says James Hogan, President and Chief Executive Officer of Etihad Airways."

The game has changed since the Airbus A350 Delivery going to Qatar. The change is with those key words mentioning the Boeing 787 as "the most technologically advanced airplane in its class". Even the A350 can't claim that unless it wants a law suite in the world court system making an attempt denying Boeing has a more advanced product. The Boeing goading has started through its customers, like Etihad. They do have a remarkable 787-9, and are proud of it as they should be. Those little semantics phrases pop-up during press releases and will continue to do so from here to eternity.

What's so remarkable about the 787 are several factors Airbus could not match.

• Wing Technology from the 787 is most advanced and better than what Airbus could offer.

• Boeing's Engine duopoly with GE and Rolls Royce where Airbus is a one hit wonder with just Rolls.

• Core technology throughout the 787 architecture, Where ErrorBus failed to duplicate.

• I can't remember if Airbus touts its cabin pressure at 6,000 feet? Boeing Does! However, Airbus does eventually mention 6,000 feet cabin pressure but does not tout its existence as Boeing has accomplished. Bleed Air systems promotes more kerosene fumes in cabin air, that's a fact Jack. 

• Boeing's direct electrical power to all systems and no bleed air by-pass or hydraulic systems, Errorbus is the older power robbing bleed-air-bypass with all those contaminants pumped into the cabin area by leakage even with extensive filtering that it requires.

These are just a few of the most advanced items on a lengthy checklist of the most advanced application not found on the Airbus Class Twin Engine Wide Body. They pulled off-the-shelf its many tricks and advances in the Airbus technology bin. However, they did not go beyond with anything new like Boeing accomplished, Remember Boeing built a plastic airplane before Airbus so they can't claim the most advanced Plastic body. Airbus was left with the size element once more, going an inch here and an inch there and making bank with the distance of a pinky finger.

The Etihad 787-9 is a marvel in beauty and technology. It is the consummate or proverbial masterpiece going to D.C. It is a proud aircraft worth the price of admission. Every molecule of technology goes towards efficiency, passenger comforts and airline operations. It is the most advanced airline in its class.

Qatar Has The Boeing Data As It Compares The A350

It took me a moment pondering the wisdom of the Qatar move where it replaced the 787-8 with its A350-900 on the Frankfurt route and then the light came on. Qatar wants to know how the two types compare on same routes, distances and operation and who will come out on top? However, it should compare the 787-9 with the A350-900 for a comparable assessment. But it can factor down the 787-8 efficiency on this route, since the 787-9 is a little more efficient in service. This inservice comparison is important for Qatar for its operational decision-making and future ordering. How does the A350-900 compare in the operational expense category with the 787-8? They have years worth of seasonal data on the 787-8 and now the A350-900 will be gathering its seasonal data for Qatar.

Of course this will lead into another blog later when comparing products, so keep watching for comparables after two years in operation or until the end of 2016. The next tier of testing is situational efficiency for the 787-8 where it will be placed on marginal Qatar routes and determine if it makes a real time difference on those routes. Its no slight to Boeing pulling the 787-8 off the Frankfurt Route since Qatar has immense information for the 787-8 for that particular route. It becomes important how  the aircraft affects Qatar's profits on roads less travelled. I believe they will be pleasantly impressed with this next level of real time data, as they travel the secondary markets with the 787-8. They will make money and fill the airplanes with Qatar's style and reputation for excellence. Airbus has a stout order book for Qatar with 80 of its type all together. Boeing has less than half that many in total ordered with 30 units. It stands to reason for Qatar routing the 43 each A350-900 and 37 each A350-1000 on its premium routes out of its abundant Airbus order book.

Even though Boeing placed and delivered early its first 20 aircraft, Qatar needs to know what it has done after ordering the Airbus ships in abundance. Qatar is playing the part of divide orders and conquer pricing. They won't be ordering the 787 for awhile. Hence, Airbus aircraft assignment will be relinquished to its most plush routes and Boeing will go on its utility 2nd tier routes. The Comparison of aircraft remains important for Boeing as more A350 fill the roster. I am not holding my breath on a reversal of strategy from Qatar. It would take a calamity on their part with Airbus to change fortunes with its order book. Airbus is at center stage with Qatar over the next five years as Boeing's 787 continues the ironing out of the 787 family. Competitors to Qatar will influence a Qatar change of heart more than  experiencing Airbus' Faults. The long haul of operation will define both aircraft where the A350 has just started its shakedown journey towards refinement.

Annoucement: "The 757 is Reborn Again" just name dropping.

Hey Boeing Do A 737-757 or 757-737 (Flash Update)

WSJ: Flash Quote:
"Ron Baur, United’s vice president of fleet, said the airline was looking at both the A321LR now being developed by Airbus and an all-new Boeing jet that the U.S. company is sketching out."

United Continental Studying Replacements for Fleet’s Boeing 757s

The Boeing pencil pushing is at Max capacity today as United has left the door open for a Continental Buster, Ocean Spanning Single aisle behemoth or duo aisle 787 sub class, to replace its nearly 1000 757 still in service. Airbus was quick with its insertion of a A321 NEO before Boeing got the memo. Customers want a bridge from here to there. From single aisle city pairings to duo aisle range sensibilities. It doesn't have to go beyond 6,000 miles nor does it need to carry 250 passengers, but it needs to fill the gap between single and duo aisle operations. Boeing can get there faster with a single aisle 757 like makeover with new engines, avionics and aerodynamic designing. Or it can go deep in the playbook with a 787 mini all carbon structure. Speed of time tells me metal is the soup de jour for any new offering.

How would this play off the Boeing resourcing with the 777X Project going full throttle? The sketch artist are answering this question for United-Continental at this time. Mums the word on the Boeing street corner. They have three years to come up with a viable offer having a five year delivery plan. Airbus has moved the clock forward on Boeing with the A321NEO.

Cause and effect problems are under consideration. A Boeing like fleet is tapped into by a A321NEO order. Next comes the commonality issue for the airline and another card falls for Airbus. Follow-on A350 orders and so forth.  Boeing needs to defend its Seattle citadel. Whether they want to or not they need this 757 replacement or gap filler to defend what it has built these last ten years. The sunk cost is the replacement gap filler penalty from the 757 design board, and the MAX CAD machines. Boeing needs to parry off the A321 because they are breaching Boeing's gap exposure. Its not a hard choice for Boeing to go ahead but its a hard and costly thing to implement. However, most of the technology lies on its shelf at this time. Boeing will fill this need sooner rather than later once it identifies the cost, customers, and construction.

Boeing really needs this Goldenliner

737 And Nothing But 737

A Photo Tribute from Airways News

737 Eye Candy:

 Credit Airway News Story and Photos By Brandon Farris / Published March 6, 2015


See the whole show at the above link:

Its Cheat Sheet Time What's Airbus Thinking?

Charts Below tell the bigger wide body story. I have purposefully not included the A330NEO because it does not meet conditions of the wide body only new options. The 787 is all new, the 777-300ER is really a wide body. The A350 is Airbus in the making of its all new wide body. The 777X self explanatory.

The Airbus A350 family is an all new family as will be the 777X, and the 787-9 and 787-10 members are gaining status. I will use those types in the trench warfare analysis of the new wide bodies, since every customer considers those model when making a choice. The 787-8 is almost four years long in its delivery life, and steps on the toes of Airbus everywhere it flies. Since the 777-300ER has been flying for some time I will look at backlog comparisons only and not look at the front end for ordering  yet until I score first the backlog.

Airbus has  778 Airbus A350 in waiting for delivery;
Boeing has 515, 777's in the same status.
Boeing has 826 787's in Backlog status.

Head count status is scored:

Boeing  1,341 wide bodies to be delivered
Airbus     778
WB Net   543  Boeing WB has the advantage over the Airbus WB offering  by 542 units.

Airbus A350

2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Orders	2	292[2]	163[3]	51	78	-31	27	230	-32	–	780
Deliveries	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	–	2

 777's        Ordered-  Delivered-  Backlog

777-300ER	768	539	229

777X	286	-	286

Total	1054	539	515

787-8

467

232

787-9

467

15

787-10

139

–

Total

1,073

247

Backlog  TTL

–

–

826

Boeing has six Wide Body models in play.

In every conceivable fold of the Wide Bodied market is seating 200 to 405 passengers, Boeing has Airbus covered with superior performing aircraft for every airline tasks. Even though this has been pieced together out of plans in a parade of announcements, from the 787-8 through the 777-9X. Boeing has achieved a bracketing barrage of models all having the same common avionic controls and servicing attributes required for modern airline singular focused maintenance operations. Mechanics are tuned to commonalities in the six model offerings, as well as the flight crews. Operations manuals from the airline can be written in thematic sequence even though models may vary by size and layout.

The A350-1000 is not a match for the 777-X family. The A350-900 is a one trick pony lost in  the shuffle of  market fitting against its multi-layered competitors, the 787-8,, 787-9, and 787-10. Let's face it, the A350-800 is dead on arrival.

Boeing has to deliver 1,341 wide bodies it has amassed and backlogged, during the same time period Airbus had, and where it now has only has a 779 units to deliver for its future wide body deliveries. Boeing is out pacing Airbus significantly in the realm of duo aisle offerings. Throw in some A330 NEO's and it still falls short.

Adding insult to enjury Boeing is about to take on some robust 787 orders this year.

Somebody here, suggested I should add the A330 NEO's and being charitable since I added the 777-300ERs, I did that as found below. So For John Leahy and the gang at Airbus, a crowd pleasing A330 Neo is added by 120 unbuilt units. Combined with the 779 "unbuilt" A350's, the Airbus WB equaling a total of 898 unbuilt wide bodies in backlog.

Wide Body backlog revised with NEO:

Boeing 1341

Airbus   898

Boeing totals 442 more wide bodies in the numbers game. However at Boeing's production rate they will equal Airbus wide body backlog sooner rather than later while taking on more orders for its wide body offerings. Its a simple choice between 6 models to choose from or two (+A330 NEOs) models to choose from. Expanding airlines needs choice over one size fits all approach.

Below is the Much To Do About Nothing Airbus Extravagant Order Chart (MTDANAEOC) 

Airbus A330neo Firm Orders

Date of Firm Order	Country	Customer	Aircraft Type		Combined
			800neo	900neo
Totals			10	110	120
24 Dec 2014	Taiwan	Transasia Airways	4	0	4[28]
23 Dec 2014	Ireland	Avolon	0	15	15[27]
18 Dec 2014	United States	Hawaiian Airlines	6	0	6[30]
15 Dec 2014	Malaysia	AirAsia X	0	55	55[25]
3 Dec 2014	United States	CIT Group	0	15	15[24]
19 Nov 2014	United States	Delta Air Lines[n 1]	0	25	25[22]

    

I was going to front load orders in this part and compare the wide bodies, but I could not find John Leahy for comment before I proceeded. The order part is far bigger than the backlog approach so I will let this one rest since Airbus needs a break.

Twelve Is Boeings' Theme In February

After the malaise of January, Boeing has recouped its annual pace within the 90 Day average going forwards with a 12.33 moving average number during February, after delivering 12 during the 28 day period.  Of course March will have 31 days for customers gathering funding and Boeing building aircraft, so it should meet its prescribed 10 a month pace. The First Quarter will be a 90 day Quarter for the 90 Day Moving average. Making it a true match with the calendar and time. Second quarter 2015 has 91 days factoring the 90 day moving average.

Goal +/-                          *12/2014    **01/2015         Projecting    February-   (actual) Delta 

Month Deliveries              18             **7.0              10              12.0                     +5

3 M-M-avg                      11.67          10..33              10              12.33                   +2.33

Production Goal               10               10                 10               10                         0

Delivery Trend (+/- )       +8.                  +.33                       . 0             +2.33       Target....  >                

                                     *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PMs-Ending

*Progression Months Start

**Moving Average Progression mid-point

The 90 Day Background Noise:

• Holidays are done and the pause is dispatched without any significant retooling.
• More orders looming for Terrible Teens (@10)
• 787-9's hitting production pacing during the holidays
• The 787-9's, 787-10's are in market battles with the A350's with Turkish Airlines and Emirates.
• It will be a "analyst year" over ordering either an Airbus or Boeing type.

787-8 Is The Cup Half Full In March 2015

It all began on September 25th 2011 when ANA received its first 787-8. Two more were delivered in 2011. Three 787-8's in four months.

2012 passed with Boeing getting its arms around production:
2013 showed the world it had a battery problem and it could build it regardless.
2014 diversified with the  787-9 as they delivered 104 787-8's and 10 787-9's

787-8's Delivered                   Total Backlog  467
2011      3                                Book Balance  464
2012:   47                                                         417
2013:   64                                                         348                                                                
2014:  104                                                        244
2015:   10                                                         234  48.8% delivered 51% backlogged

Total 228 delivered out of 467 is about 48% of total 787-8 backlog making it half the order book of 787-8's delivered in about 42 months from September 2011. Boeing will not deliver the glass half empty side in the same amount of time. It is switching over to a prominent 787-9 profile and a 787-10 is coming into the system making the 787-8 an also ran in production. Its numbers will slump down to maybe 50 a year in 2016. The 787-9 will pick-up the annual balance with about Seventy. Boeing will go to about 140 787 a year when the 787-10 starts delivery.

2017 full production should be as follows:

50-55 787-8's according to how module mixing and customer delivery preference is managed.
70-75 787-9's
20-25 787-10's

When on a full delivery schedule the backlog/production will look something like this if no more orders occur from today on any model.

787-8's at 50 a year now has a five year backlog
787-9 at 70 a year has about a 6 year back log
787-10 at 20 a year has about a seven year backlog from the time of its first delivery.

The 787-8 ordering is going to come back since the backlog has shrunk to 234.
The 787-9 will have a steady order appeal of about 50 every year forward.
The 787-10 could have a break-out year during 2015-2016 ordering period.

The 787-10's are not in final configuration until after it test flies. It may reach further than the early estimation of a 7,200 mile range. Boeing has now claimed 25% fuel improvement comparing it with prior generation similar class aircraft. It also has lost some more frame weight and gained more aerodynamic improvements. Boeing estimated conservatively with the 787 family of aircraft during design and computer modeling phase. The 787-8 smashed the conservative estimate of 15% fuel savings coming out of modeling by almost 5% as it flies at about 20% improvement. The 787-9 is exceeding expectations as well with its customers raving about the aircraft performance. What this does with my thinking is make me more confident the 787 family is no lie. Boeing is staying on script and not making claims off computer modeling until it flies. IF as a big if, the 787-10 can manage more than the 8.038 mile range already claimed (coming from the last research number on the 787-10), then orders flow in earnest as it will go to 95% of the world's long thin routes. The Boeing family of aircraft may make Airbus rethink its A350 strategy when the 777X flies for customers.

So Much To Do So little Time US DDG1001

The second DDG 1001 is apply named the Michael Monsoor. On deck is the Zumwalt, and now in its muster is the Michael Monsoor, gracing Bath Iron Work. Michael Monsoor selflessly gave his life in Iraq, earning the medal of honor for his Nation, friends, and family.






Now you know this ship is important its about the American spirit, bravery and commitment for its nation.

Next ship up is the DDG1002 Lynden B Johnson. Stay tuned

PS The 155mm Rail gun rocks:

Qatars A350 finds Ground Hog Day

So much so, its lead henchman, Al Baker is on a business trip today making cover for its not yet delivered 2nd A350.

Arabian AeroSpace:

"Qatar’s CEO Akbar Al Baker is in Berlin next week for the ITB, the world’s largest travel and tourism show where is expected to reveal initial operating data for the A350 and to advertise the arrival of the second aircraft. - See more at:

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/qatar-set-to-speed-up-service-entry-for-delayed-second-a350.html#sthash.0LZnnU0N.dpuf

It was announced for February 17, 2015 delivery but in Boeing-esque style the plane simply is not ready for Qatar today. Should someone worry, "Nah"? Its built and has tires to roll on and fly. Akbar Al Baker is doing his due diligence at ITB.

Let me give homage to the ground hog on February's last day. "Haven't we been here before?" The do-over is an uncanny salute for the groundhog's  big day. Airbus has two A350 out in over two and a half months. Very Boeing like during its own last three months during 2011 when it delivered three 787's amongst all the mad dashing on the Everett plant floor. The French version is letting Al Baker go to IBT with a shrug. Let the Airbus sales team unleash a barrage of hyperbole. As Qatar face slapped Lufthansa a few times when it remarked, "The Qatar A350 is better than Lufthansa stuff". "Hey wait a minute Lufthansa ordered some A350's too." Its Airbus IBS going on here so take an antacid Qatar and go to IBT.

The operating data is what brought the conferees to IBT. Its how Al Baker couches the data that will cause Boeing some response. Al Baker is not necessarily deferring over to Airbus as a sole fan for the A350 but he too likes center stage so he has purposed the A350 in some of its most glamorous locations like Frankfurt which is very near where Lufthansa operates. Coincidence, I think not, Because he has already taken exception to Lufthansa fleet by calling inferior to Qatar's fleet having the A350 as the example in the Lufthansa market. Interesting who this premier Middle East carrier is going after in a market segment with such language towards a competitor. Its not anti Boeing but a anti Lufthansa sentiment. Could it be over all those 777X's Lufthansa ordered? Or is it something else up Al Bakers sleeve?

The whole A350 delivery delay and IBT meeting will smoke out more details concerning this Qatar chapter. Its more much ado about nothing marketing in play. A larger game board comes out on how much loads into aircraft interiors. The Boeing efficiency vs Airbus customer space is in play as Airbus says it can stuff the bus with more passenger amenity. Saying its greater than the 787 family of Aircraft. Qatar went with the 787-8 early even though it was not an aircraft suitable for Qatar space grandeur. Now they have the A350 which has started bumping the Boeing 787's over to less glamorous routes. What all this means is Qatar pride focuses on the best show in the air. Not necessarily the best airplane for the task. However, the 777-X has not played out in the market place which would be more suitable for Qatar sensibilities where Qatar ordered 50 of its type.

Boeing's 100 787 Order Book in 2015 Preview (update*)

It will be the 12 Days of Christmas Theme song playing all through 2015 as Boeing cleans up house on the 787 order book. Remember Qantas has 50 787-9 dangling for its corporate fit and finish. They are waiting for check list items occurring in the Qantas things-to-do book before we go gonzo and order those options.

• Profitability on long range range routes Check. 
• Operational change management completed when wages are settled for the long haul time period (not checked but close). 
• Finally all inefficiencies identified are fixed (profitability is a good indicator those items are getting checked). 

So here is a brief dreamer 12 days of Christmas wish book headcount:

• 2 Booked already in 2015
• 50 Qantas 787-9 options leaning
• 8 Teen Old Maids partnered (Ethiopian)
• 2 Teen Old Maids  partnered (Air Austral)
• 4 Tahiti Nui 787-9's almost booked
• 3 ANA 787-10 order to be signed on.
• 14 787-9s from Spain’s Air Europa 

Total in play = 83 787 orders $20 billion (US) estimated based on best information sales pricing

10 Terrible Teens 100 million each discounted         1    Billion
 2  already booked about 200 million each                   .5 Billion
68 787-9 at 250 million each                                    17    Billion
 3 787-10 about 350 million each                               1.4 Billion

Total dollars in play for noted purchases in place is about  $20 Billion US
        
Seventeen to go to go by Boeing sales teams. They could make it to 100 EOY 2015 with some or little effort. In fact they may exceed 100 787 ordered in 2015 by dozens or more.

• Turkish Airlines Wants some wide bodies either from Boeing or Airbus.
• Emirates ponders for more 787-10's or A350-900's. ( I'm betting on Boeing)

This could cinch up about 150 787's ordered for 2015.

Those are critical Boeing battles, which will tell investors an insightful story. A Boeing victory on those two customers will establish a Boeing bragging point over Airbus.

What is intriguing is the 8,055 mile number Boeing has hung out there for the 787-10 flight legs. This will turn some orders over to Boeing away from Airbus. It can make it to all the existing money routes, which is the number one questions from all its potential customers. Can it go to the Middle East or the Orient from here? "Yes it can!" Boeing answers.

Here are prior years 787 year order numbers:

2012 - 41
2013 -183
2014 - 65
Total=289

Average = 96 per year booked during the last three years.