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Thursday, October 9, 2014

Beyond The Seat Mile Addiction

Airlines today have a penchant for seat/mile profits and efficiency. The end of that goal is putting as many passengers on for a given trip at the lowest operating cost. There is a second layer to this approach, and it’s not about raw density numbers and efficient operations. It’s about what the airline company offers with its equipment. Much like a cruise ship, people don't care about the cheapest ticket by 5% advantage but the travel experience. That is why passengers often rely upon expectations when traveling. They want to go on board knowing they will have an outstanding experience when traveling for a particular airline on a particular aircraft type. Hence the case of the Air China's first 747-8i.

Case in Point:


The above link from Australian Business Traveler inspires the Idea for business travel as well as the vacationer. What an airline does with it cubic feet allotted from the aircraft frame is just as or more important for selling seats than fuel economy. The 787-8i provides space for airlines. As in cruise shipping manufacturing, no one cares if a ship is built in Bath Maine or Spain. It’s how the ship is fitted and the experience gained. The choice is between a Motel 6 for $59.99 per night or Comfort Inn for $99.99 a night. It’s your choice.

What did Air China do to its 747-8i to make your valued choice more productive. It gives you its first 747-8i with many choices from the Business Traveler to the Vacationer. It is a high valued experience with a solid economic footing. If you have not linked with the article above, here are a few pictures and my rational for what I see on the Australian Business Travelers Article, below.



 Photos: Inside Air China's Boeing 747-8 first, business class

Towards the pointy end second deck of the 747-8i are the moguls of industry sitting 1-2-1 across first class. It is a purpose filled space without the fluff.

"Contains first, business, premium economy and economy class across a total of 365 seats."




Business Class is all Business when comes to comfort and room. Below (ABT Photo)


Upstairs is private space for either the Execs or the refined traveler.


Getting there doesn't have to be painful by having a semi-standing posture from an under pitched space. It can actually be a happy experience on an airplane design for travel. Premium economy for a few dollars more than economy is worth the reservation and price. Shown Below (ABT Photo)

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Doing ETOPS for 10 Days

Extended Trip Out People Socializing (ETOPS) for 240 hours is my next attempt at normalizing with society. I will be in a sketchy mode at best, writing blogs. There are 432 blogs listed on LiftNdrag at your disposal during the next ten days. If I am able I will post either something snarky or informative about aviation. Since I'm going to the back woods and further into the mountains, it depends how much wifi I'll have from Kalispell, MT (Nearest town with a mall). Enjoy all the older stuff and think about bears chasing my family around the wilderness and "Park".

Monday, October 6, 2014

Single Aisle Notes For 2014 Orderbook

The 737 has orders for a net total of 712  while the A-320 Neo has two hundred less at 512. Hold on a minute, what about the A-321? Okay I knew somebody from Airbus  would ask that question in "order" to make a point, so let's add another 146.

Order score (Net) as of September 30, 2014

Boeing                   Airbus
1000                        791

Boeing still leads the single aisle order market with that addition at the end of September with 712 Boeing 737's over the Airbus 658 A-320-321's. Not to rub it in on Airbus too much, let's change the subject to production.

The production score is as Follows on September 30, 2014:

Boeing            Airbus
528                     443

Boeing has an over-all production lead for the year by 85 units. Further analysis is taken. Boeing has produced 80 more 787's than the Airbus' 0 A350's to be fair during this period.  It has produced more wide-bodies cash cows than Airbus including the line-up of 777's and a couple of 747's just because they did.

Where did I stumble on these facts?:


Boeing is not sitting still any longer in the midst of doing what it mentioned several years back. "We need  increased production for our customers sake." That they have done it, and addressed it as they go forward in the next 6 years with 52 a month 737s. The way they are now outselling the A320 NEO they will need that increased production in Renton, WA. Suppliers, its time to ramp up to 52 parts a month for both NG's and Max.

Insuring An On Time 777X Is Just As Critical As Making It

Boeing is readying its Everett plant and wide spread facilities for one mission. Get it right the first time on time. In Everett, its all hands on deck for the new 777X  wing assembly center. In St. Louis, Spirit is reading its part as the larger 777X assembly part manufacturer. This time around there will not be 787 like dithering in the airplane preparation. This "Moon Shot" is not a guesstimation 787-8 fly by long night after long night works. Its everything Boeing has done, and can be done on time and in place for the 777X. It's a drag race to the finish against the un-launched A350-1000, yet to built or tested. Folding wings is the least of Boeing's headaches on the table. They have been doing that since World War II. The main thing is getting facilities tooled and ready for the the Biggest Show on Earth, using some of PT Barnum's tactics to pull orders into the big tent.

Boeing is "sinking", literally sinking its assets into Everett turf. The "Plan" is to make something out of whole cloth fly like the best aircraft ever flown in the world, using the rabbits from Boeing's hat as the show stoppers. This is not just a "Fly-by-wire" act or a new LIon in the center ring. It is the big show we aspire to be in. The all plastic thing went with the mini skirt, however there are many fans of the mini skirted 787. This time it's, all about the contours in the wings, the tail and the airplane face, where Boeing will exploit its competitors. Then, on the runway, the wings will fold before the Jetway audience. Ohhh, and gasps as it makes its appearance are the sounds, when the 777X turns and hooks up with the jet way.

The customers remark, "those wings are plastic, they are nicer looking than the originals, where they just sagged a bit hanging on those large cans"!

The big show is on, as this show girl is wooing the airline audience.

Boeing will begin by regaining its reputation by starting on time. That is the big news, its sinking a big amount of resources into making the deadline. They already know how to make it fly farther, faster and cheaper with fuel. So pull all the lessons learned to the fore front and give it to the 777X. "People, we don't have to do it all over again. We just have to match the right technology to the right application." The 777X is going revolutionize the best of Boeing, by taking the 787 DNA and infuse it into the 777X. In return the 777X will give back to the 787 family of aircraft as it further takes on laminar flow and engine evolution.

Order Book Shenanigans

Its more confusing than square dancing in Virginia, USA. The Boeing order book took some hits and had some misses. Remember the main thing, is to keep the main thing, the main thing. I always wanted to call that at a square dance before we doce-do and away we go! Lesson from the Boeing order page for those with tri-focals and a magnifying glass in hand. "Here we go", Peter Pan Style.

1. 737's don't tell any stories about who, what, when, and where's just three to "Deep Pockets McGee".
2. 747, Played the song "Another one Bit The Dust" and "another one" Why, we don't really know why, but sometimes they just "Bite the Dust".



3. Hey, I thought the 767 bit the dust last year, I forgot FedEx. Oh well it fits them and that's all it matters for four more.

4.  Not FedEx's four but two big Gecas 777 to go. Order up!
5. 787 @ 15 Whaaaat! Unnamed, unidentified and unknown ordered?
6. Air Berlin has no chops at this time, Cancelled 15 787, Whaaaat! Book em Dano
7. Conspiracy theories are flooding the internet at this time on the 0 net change on the 787 book.
8. Almost Forgot, 20 each of the 737 were dropped as third quarters financials hit some fired execs.
9. 1000 ways to "Leave Your Lover", but don't hop on the Bus, Gus.


Orders through September 30, 2014
737747767777787Total
2014 Net Orders712-14261241000
Air Algerie1010
Air Canada6161
Alaska Airlines66
ALC21627
All Nippon Airways261440
Avolon5611
Belavia33
BOC Aviation80282
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)5117
Cargolux Airlines11
CIT Leasing Corporation1010
COPA Airlines22
Eastern Air Lines1010
Emirates150150
Ethiopian Airlines2020
FedEx44
GECAS527
Intrepid Aviation66
Jackson Square Aviation33
Japan TransOcean Air66
MG Aviation Limited22
Nok Air1515
Okay Airways Company Limited1010
Qatar Airways5050
Ryanair55
SunExpress Airlines4040
Turkish Airlines1515
Turkmenistan Airlines33
Unidentified Customer(s)4511815484
United States Navy1616
2014 Gross Orders79214261481106
Changes-80-2-24-106
2014 Net Orders712-14261241000
737747767777787Total
Highlighted text in the chart above indicates updates for the current week.
Changes since last update:  24 new orders (Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) three 737s, FedEx four 767s, GECAS two 777s, and Unidentified Customer(s) 15 787s).  In the changes category reduced 737 net orders by 20, 747 net orders by two and 787 net orders by 15.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

"The Group"

"The group will add 100 Boeing 787 to its fleet at the end of 2015 and the first Airbus A350 in 2018. The aircraft will be equipped with completely new cabins."

Once again this statement pops out without explanation, "a hundred whole 787's at the end of 2015"? 

This quote comes from:


I keep pondering, what does Air France-KLM Group means by that quote, when they only ordered 25-787-9's with an option for 25 more, equaling fifty?

My Math is either in error, or the writers of the last two articles where this reference has appeared are "California Dreaming". It maybe due to a combined order with Airbus where the confusion lays. On the same day they (The Group) announced the Boeing purchase of 25/25, where they also announced an A-350 order for 25/35 starting in 2018(purchase/Options).

Maybe somebody, anybody, can help me here if the Group really did order 100 787 starting with delivery in 2015? 

Friday, October 3, 2014

Boeing's Virtual Build And Boeing's Pilots

One thing that Boeing has learned through the 787-8 experience is how its gained a reliance on computer models with the correct information inputs into its virtual system. New flight laws keep occurring from real time testing on the flight line. When Boeing started with the 787-8 it had to use metal aircraft data for the virtual design center information base, since it only  had data from flying examples in the metal world. The 787-8 took about 3,000 hrs of flight time of testing, before the good to go signal. Then the 787-9 took about 1,500 hours before saying we have it modeled in the virtual system and with the practical mode of flying. Lesson learned in the virtual mode were updated on its design centers computers from the dash 8 to the dash nine. Assumptions made that worked remained and assumption that didn't work were expunged off the data modeling. Those were replaced with actual 787-9 data.

Next Aircraft  up is the 787-10 with a longer stretch than the 787-9. Throw another barrel on the fire. One so long that it can't be transported to Everett by the Dream Lifter, so it will be built and remain in Charleston, SC until assembly time.

One out-growth from the 787-8 project is the reliance on the computer model, even when guessing a little. The modeling tells the engineers that close computer results gets it off the ground, and actual flying updates are added to the data, where it provides a pathway on how to fine tune the aircraft with new options. It is a far more complete and efficient way of making complex aircraft over the old trial and error method of test pilots flying, and later having conversations on the flight line. Test pilots still require a rigorous shake down of flying aircraft having immense flying skills. However, those flight line conversations with the engineers are much shorter as a bank of computer servers relay data on what happens during flight maneuvering. How the structure flexes, how  the lifting surfaces react and any other in flight characteristics that form anomalies. These results of the test are discovered through duration flying where it goes to the computers and are forwarded to the next model up. The human element remains important as pilot behavioral input, reactions, and expectations are needed for the model. "Human input" to the project must be part of the virtual model!

The 787-9 just did a remarkable performance of gaining flight status after 1,500 hundred hours. Thanks to the 787-8 lessons, and correcting "wrongly assumed designed points" in the virtual model. It is best said that 90%  of the model was spot on for the 787-8, and 98% of the 787-9 was spot on from the modeling attributes. The Dash Ten should come in 98.5 to 99%  spot on from comparing modeling to real flight tests, completely eliminating the trial and error curve entirely, even as the 787-8 had already accomplished.

In spite of all the white noise, the 787 project has created from press reporting. The big news is found indoors at the Boeing design center, where it will pull together its 777X model, A computer design with all the lessons learned, since WWII for its 777X flying wings. Boeing will know before the 777X takes off for its first flight, what it will do. The test pilots will confirm the model and offer valuable advice for making the aircraft a pilot's aircraft. That is the import part of selling it into the future, what the pilot has to say.  I remember how Mike Carriker came off the first 787-8. He was was an engineering hero. His eyes were lit up like an eight year old boy at Christmas with his first airplane toy. The thing flew just like it did in the lab. It was the beginning of something new for Boeing. The virtual model actually flies like "we imputed the information into the computer". The computer model removes 98% of trial and error flight testing.

Wind tunnels are important confirmation and refinement points in design. Pilots are for validation for flight characteristics and the human interface advancements. Mike, being both an accomplished pilot and engineer melded his professional expertise in both the design center and flight line.They are not just there to come back alive as found in the 1950-70's. They are important for the human interface of the machine for all its future pilots.

The 787-8 was five years extra in coming for the engineers, but that effort would have taken 20 years using 1970's technology or not at all. The 787 did a hole-in-one shot and did not lay-up short for a chip shot and a put. Mike Carriker is both an engineer and master pilot where he spent time  both indoors at the design center, and on the the flight line. As most Boeing Test pilots now have that dual role. It's the only way to get the virtual world correct. Now bring on the 777X and the 787-10!

Thursday, October 2, 2014

5+2=7(737), or numbered as 52 or times Its Own Numbers =10 more a month

It was a fine year to be born in 1952. My lucky number, then Boeing announces it will build 52, 737's a month going forward 4 years ahead of myself. Numbers are an important thing for bean counters, as I have served in that capacity as well. 52 X's 12 = 624 Max and NG's a YEAR. Everybody knew it was coming. Workers told their children to get a machinist skill in the Renton, Wa area, several years back. There is a future right here in Renton Town. I once went to trade school in Renton and know the clamor going on way past the Job service doors. Its called getting ready for the next great push in aviation. Young folks, get your google on, and learn more technology. You have a Job coming near your rainforest soon. Or move to the plains and join "Spirit". Good Move/!

So here is the low down on the low down. I doing this feature on the cheap and will link you to the news.

Boeing To Raise 737 Production Again By 2018


"Boeing has announced plans to raise output of 737s beyond its current production plans, saying global demand for new aircraft justifies it.
The move to build 52 737s a month in 2018, from 42 currently, while widely expected, shows Boeing's confidence that its factory and its network of suppliers can step up to the rate for Boeing's single-aisle jet.
The increase will push production of 737s to 624 a year in 2018, almost matching the 648 the company delivered last year across all four of its main models."
While many suppliers will be able to meet the higher rate, they fear the increase won't last more than a couple of years, not long enough to justify the costs of increasing their capacity, said Ken Herbert, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity who recently surveyed about 45 companies that supply Boeing.
"It is not ideal from a supplier standpoint because of the capital investment required and the negative financial implications of then taking rates down," he said. "This significantly increases the risk, in the eyes of the suppliers."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Suppliers are concerned this is an airplane building bubble number, and are hesitant to increase its own supply chain capabilities just to have Boeing soften the supply chain quantities only a few years after implementing the production increase.
Point well taken.

Boeing laid the groundwork with its Asia conference last month when it said Asia will need about 6,012 new aircraft over the next 20 years. Most of those will be single aisle types. The second key point, is that Randy Tinseth was only speaking about Asia, and not the world market in total. To know the world forecast of that market is key for the supplier. Boeing is betting on a rush of single Aisle sales in the next five years as airline place holders, for timely deliveries for the world wide demand. Asia is just getting into the order fracas sooner rather than later. Somebody will have to make those parts for either Boeing or Airbus. This next bubble will be one with duration. Those who blink will be unprepared in the supply chain. Here are a few Pondering Points:
  • World demand is not exclusive to Boeing
  • The order rush has not fully yet begun
  • The current rush, is for place holding for fleet renewals, and not fleet increases.
  • Fleet Increase Orders are now on the horizon ready to pad the order book.
  • Supplier Expansion Risk is ready for Reward during this next decade.  

Boeing is expecting or is tendering new orders for the Max in 2015, and has a certain expectation for the next four years for what its going to do in the single aisle market. It too, does not want to increase capacity by 20% if it doesn't need to do so. Suppliers should, after careful review, increase capacity for its Boeing customer, as it realizes it could gain advantages for or with both mega builders in Europe and the US.
In conclusion, the suppliers are watching both the NEO and Max once it flies in tests, then they will know how they will expand, and for whom they will be expanding.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Sikorsky Raider Day October 2, 2014

Game on tomorrow as Sikorsky launches its first out the door Raider S-97 October 2, 2014. Here is the Link:








The shape of things to come. I am excited for our military pilots and crews. Hoorah!

3rd Quarter Boeing Bank Notations Are In: (Updated)

Deliveries are in for the third quarter 2014 of which Boeing has received cash money on each 787 provided, totaling 31 copies for the 3rd quarter. Several items of note are provided below from production values: One unit was moved out of September into October resulting in a final tally for 10 September 787's delivered, and reducing the moving average for the quarter to 10.33 units per month from 10.67 for the three months averaged per +-30 days.

Quarterly Production Notes:
  • 31 787's (including Four 787-9's)
  • 27 787-8's
  •   4 787-9's

Summary notes: That Boeing, inspite of it's often reported work slowdowns, and  plant changes due to its upgrades installed within aircraft, they have maintained Ten A Month Delivery over the last two quarters. That's right six months straight where they are averaging over Ten A Month, the listed/stated goal. Boeing is not out of the woods yet, but it is coming down the home stretch in a solid position with the lead.

Goal +/-                          07/2014    08/2014          Projecting      September (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries              *8              **13               10            10                           -3
3 M-M-avg                      11.33           12.33            10            10.33                  + .33
Production Goal                10               10                 10           10                             0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -1.33            +2.33                   -. 0          + .33      /Target           >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                            PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression