History Lessons and Airplane Shifting, The case of The Vasa

Sweden's mighty ship Vasa never made it to sea. It just sank before it made it out of harbor. That is how Airbus feels after losing 70  A-350 orders before they eve got out of  sales port. Not only did the order sink, a full broadside from Boeing with an order for 150 777-X's shooting out at Airbus' own Vasa. The sinking salvo came from the Airbus A-350 launch customer, who abandoned ship from those 70 Emirates, A-350's  ordered. This my friends, is called a "Sea Change", that is bigger than the sunken Vasa on August 10,1628 at about 3:00 PM in Stockholm Sweden's' harbor, as it set sail for its first voyage. The wind came and she filled with water and sank, right through the lower gun ports. The wind came for Airbus from Emirates and Boeing took advantage of favorable winds. Enjoy this historical metaphor found in this video clip, as the ship "Vasa" represents advanced  technology during its time, which gave birth to follow-on  examples of huge wooden juggernauts for the next 300 hundred years. Even though it sank, it paved the way for lessons learned in ship building, and now later on airplane progress. Boeing is well positioned from lessons learned.

Readers Research Link Below:

What Emirates' A350 Order Cancellation Means for Boeing and Airbus

Some select texts are provided for a quick read from the  article.

Motley Fool Article intact below full credits found in link:

"This has raised several questions regarding the relationship Emirates shares with the aviation majors. What led Emirates take such steps? Is the airline favoring one over the other? How would this impact Airbus and Boeing? Let's take a look. "

What's Emirates' rationale?Slated to be A350-XWB's launch customer, Emirates had placed orders for 70 units in 2007 with deliveries to begin in 2019. Bloomberg thinks this delivery schedule could have influenced the airlines' decision to cancel the order. Timely fleet expansion is critical to future prospects of all Gulf airline operators because Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi are emerging as the most popular stopovers for passengers flying between Europe and Asia. Emirates has ensured a fleet growth rate of 15.5% to date since 2007. Deliveries of A350s starting in 2019 would mean Emirates' fleet expansion rate would have dropped to 10% or below in the 2017-18 period.

Besides, with the A350-XWB being a built-from-scratch plane, one could not completely rule out the possibility of unforeseen delays. The A350-XWB was initially slated to enter service in 2010, but owing to some key alterations, this got postponed to 2013. The program faced further production challenges in 2012, and Airbus had to push service entry to the fourth quarter (September to December) of 2014, with the first delivery slated to go to Qatar Airways. 

More orders for Boeing?Analysts at Bloomberg think that if Emirates were to ensure double-digit fleet expansion rates till the end of the decade and keep pace with other fast-developing operators like Turkish Airlines, Qatar, and Etihad, it would have needed to place orders for another aircraft along with the A350s. So, analysts feel that to keep its fleet simple and maintain the desired growth rate, Emirates could order more Boeing 777s to fill in the entire requirement. Bloomberg predicts that Emirates could place an order for 50 777s to replace the A350s and maintain a growth rate of 12% through 2020. The airline is the largest operator of Boeing 777s in the world, with 140 planes in service.

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Ascend.

There could be yet another reason for potential 777 orders by Emirates. In July, the airline operator confirmed orders for 150 777X aircraft at $56 billion list prices together with options for 50 more. The duo first announced the deal at the Dubai air show last November. Boeing will start producing the 777X planes in 2017 and begin deliveries from 2020. As the aero major makes the transition from 777 to 777X, it's likely Emirates can get a deal for the current generation planes at attractive rates.

In addition, the Dubai-based operator may consider the 787 Dreamliner to structure its fleet for routes where it requires smaller aircraft. Emirates said that it would be weighing its options between the Dreamliner and the A350 in the near future. Boeing forecasts that the Middle East will account for nearly 3,000 deliveries over the next two decades. With Emirates being the biggest Gulf operator and the fourth largest carrier in the world in terms of international passengers, the American aircraft manufacturer expects to get a fair share of these orders.

What it means for Airbus?The order loss is definitely not great news for Airbus. It formed 9% of the total A350-XWB backlog with estimated worth of $11 billion. The Toulouse, France-based company had a backlog of 812 A350-XWBs that was reduced to 742 in the second quarter of the year ended June 2014, post the cancellation. 

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence.

But the scrapped deal doesn't necessarily signal a rift in the healthy relationship between Airbus and Emirates. The airline's president Tim Clark said they will consider having A350-XWBs in Emirates' future fleet. According to Clark, either this year-end or starting next year, Emirates will arrange talks with Airbus regarding a deal for 50 to 70 A350-XWBs for medium-range routes. 

Other airline operators have also gotten in touch with Airbus to find out if they could book better delivery slots in the absence of the Emirates order. Airbus COO John Leahy said that most of the A350-XWB slots are filled through 2020, signifying that the aircraft is selling well. 

The Emirates president says the A380 and 777 would remain the airline's flagship long-haul international fleet in the future. This is a big boost to Airbus' fuel-guzzling, tough-to-sell jumbo jet A380. Out of the total backlog of 189 A380s, 89 are for Emirates, and of the 142 jumbos in service, 52 are being flown by the Gulf carrier.

Foolish takeaway Emirates is investing massively to expand capacity and serve future passenger growth. The current cancellation may be a temporary setback for Airbus and a precursor to more orders for Boeing, but both aero majors' planes are part of Emirates' mainstay fleet. And there's enough room for the duo to forge long-standing business relationships with the airline.

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Its Baaack! You know,"That Boeing Battery"

Its not what you think, and its its certainly not another battery melt down on the 787  as was the conditioned on an ANA's 787 that occurred last year. Instead its a no answer on causal battery effect for melt down. Japan, after much study, testing and theorizing cannot find the needle in the haystack. There have been changes in manufacturing standards which tighten the envelop of manufacturing defects of operational constraints, where both the battery maker and battery parameters funnel the parameters through a finer eye of that needle. It has wrapped in in metal and vented its gas in an appropriate manner. Using a just-in-case plan B, no harm no foul approach.

The needle has not been found, only new types of battery results and theories, which float the ethernet in abundance. Birds fly, but we don't know how, with 16th century sentiments remaining on the table. New batteries are being designed that can't, won't or would lose its its temper and melt down. Those new ones are years away, but possible as testing suggests. Boeing is stuck with the LIon on its needle head ready to swallow. Thank goodness for the "LIon steel cage", as is good as it is, just don't let it out of its cage.

Here is, as found below, what Japan says today. How perplexing the LIon is even when a Japanese firm makes the Boeing LIon.

Reference directly below:

Japan fails to find why ANA's Boeing 787 battery melted down

What LiftnDrag has learned since the first fire:

• Many causal or a combination of conditions exists even though nothing is identified for certain
• Many precautions are having a greatly improved effect on battery safety
• Factory production updates on its LIon, gives assurances, and contributes towards reduction or elimination of meltdowns.
• Boeing containment system works well in real time operation when it smoked.
• Airline battery procedures for replacement and monitoring of "that battery" is keeping ahead of any problems.

 Bottom line, Boeing and partners have completely corralled the beast, but the beast is still standing, albeit, in a pen.

• It is passenger safe in a worst case scenario, such as battery explosion, fire, and smoke. 
• The airplane flies safely without its ground support battery. 
• It has been made safe for the passengers during a catastrophic failure. 
• The LIon can wait for its replacement.  
• ANA has joined the line of people throwing its hands in the air over the issue.

Safety redundancy is a paramount safety process for airlines flying today. Discovered weaknesses in theory are back-up by other situational safety measures.

The LIon battery is in the same class found in all Airplane systems, where situational events are supported by additional flying options and employment of safety solutions or regimens. 

Example One: What if the power is lost on board ( not a battery issue)? It has several options to land, one is a Ram Air Turbine (AKA RAT). This was standard equipment even before the LIon battery existence.

Boeing or its partners will never stop in its pursuit of the Battery solutions. Industry is currently closing the LIon gap with new and more powerful batteries that won't heat, smoke or destabilize under operation. 

The 747's Real Value Goes Beyond The Terminal

Below is the raw article about the 747-AF-1. Its better than just another big behemoth. Enjoy the read from Canada.com. Its a repost and link for your enjoyment.

Air Force One 9/11 captain swears by 747 in new doc

Col. Mark Tillman featured in Discovery doc 747: The Definitive Guide

From Canada.com:

"Most travellers’ experience of a Boeing 747 is being squeezed into a flying sardine can, surrounded by short-tempered flight attendants, warmed-over gruel that passes for food, and now a surcharge for having the gall to fly with a checked bag.

Fortunately for Col. Mark Tillman (U.S. ret.), the man who was at Air Force One’s controls on Sept. 11, 2001, the presidential 747 isn’t outfitted like a commercial airliner.

As Tillman recalls in the new Discovery Canada documentary 747: The Definitive Guide, Air Force One was required to do some fancy flying that day.

Then-president George W. Bush was in Sarasota, Fla., at the time, reading out loud from a book to a class of Grade 2 pupils.

Tillman first learned of the terror attacks from watching TV.

“Everything happened so quickly that morning that the information we gathered was from watching television,” Tillman told Postmedia News, from his Arizona home. “The first we heard of it was on TV.

“This is how we run our life at Air Force One,” he added, dryly. “If CNN or Fox have pictures, we react.”

Tillman knew his mission without being told: Get the president back to Washington, D.C., as soon as possible, even if that meant “going stealth,” to use the military term.

After being told a small crowd of people had gathered at the end the runway — and nobody, not even the control tower, knew who they were — Tillman he realized he had to get the plane off the ground in as little distance as possible, even if that meant a hair-raising takeoff. Literally, as in hair raising.

As 747: The Definitive Guide points out, each engine on a 747 generates more thrust than all five engines on a B-52 bomber combined. Tillman opened up all four engines on the runway — “We were flying light,” he said, almost apologetically — and took off at nearly a straight angle, causing Bush to remark as if the plane was taking off “tail up.”

“We were using a 747-400, which uses about 57,000 pounds of thrust apiece for each engine,” Tillman said. “The advantage we had that day was that we were travelling light and so could accelerate quickly and climb in a hurry.

The 747 is so manoeuverable for such a large aircraft. A lot of other planes are stiff at the controls; the 747 is just a dream to fly.”

Tillman was not about to mess around, and when he got a warning that an unidentified passenger jet had gone silent and was nearing Air Force One’s airspace, he put the 747 through evasive flight manoeuvres.

747: The Definitive Guide, from Montreal’s Handel Productions, examines all aspects of the 747, from its design and development to its present place in civil aviation and possible future.

The future for the 747 looks cloudy, where commercial aviation is concerned. This is the age of cost-cutting, fuel efficiency and twin-engined passenger jets like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner that can fly across entire continents and oceans without refuelling.

Tillman believes reports of the 747’s demise are greatly exaggerated, though.

For one, Air Force One will probably always need to be a four-engine plane, he said, because four engines are needed to power the plane’s military-grade electronics and other classified add-ons. The 747 is so aerodynamic it can fly on just one engine.

Tillman flies economy, not business class, whenever he travels, either by himself or with his family.

“I always fly economy,” he said. “My family and I have grown up in the military, and you learn how to save your money. I always sit at the back, and just let them do their jobs. I have no concerns about the flying capability of commercial airlines in the United States and Canada; it seems to be really good, in both countries.”

And, no, he doesn’t recline his seat.

“That’s a good question,” he said, laughing. “Actually, I don’t. I literally force myself to sit straight up and down more often, because it hurts my back when I recline.

“It bothers me a lot, though, when people recline without asking. It’s just a common courtesy.”

747: The Definitive Guide airs Sunday, Sept. 28, Discovery Canada"

Production Is A Derivative of Sales

Math modeling takes place before news quotes. How many 737's will Boeing make a month? No less than 47 and no more than 52 is the Boeing answer. It all depends on order stability and customer urgency, put that in your math model for optimal production at minimal cost and supply chain ability. Boeing is now at 42 737 a month. When it jumps to a duo line of NG's and Max's simultaneously, then the transition numbers are clouded. Boeing still is preparing for 47 units a month in the near future.

Customer thirsting for single aisle units skew the product math model as Boeing will attempt to juggle the line-up within the 47-737 units a month and keep customers satisfied. The production window is further complicated by absorbing a production trend over quarterly numbers. The forty-seven a month number becomes frozen against trend lines that suggest upping or decrease production goals during a broader period of time. Boeing is hesitant to move in synchronization against seasonal trend lines where it would rather fix against a constant unit number each month and maximize production efficiency.

The back log becomes that monster that sickens its customers and production together in an endless duet of despair. Increase production and backlog shrinks, Sales are told to close more deals. When Randy Tinseth speaks about production goals, its more of an exhale, than a inside forecast. He only sees increased productivity only if he can sustain new orders for that type of move. He hopes sustained sales are coming, and he hopes Boeing needs 52 Max units a month in a couple of years. So he is laying down some serious air miles "to get er done". Randy and his cohorts are doing just that in the interim production levels from 42 to 47 units a month. The contemporary final period has set a goal for 52, and only if marketing comes through with another 1000 737 Max during the next two years. That's what the math model suggest for a further ramp-up to 52 737's a month.

Orders are sticking out there at five years down the road, for the 777,787 and Max divisions. Boeing's move to 600 737's delivered a year would require 100 more MAX sold each year above current pace, before it needs to up its production number. Boeing can afford three years of increased sustained sales above production numbers before adjusting its production capacity. However, it has seriously laid out plans to mitigate a swamped backlog for single aisle during the next five years, as it builds true and sustainable production capacity. Asking the sales and marketing chief question is a good strategy, if they want to speculate on Boeing's intentions through production analysis.

Mountain Home AFB Gunfighter Skies Airshow Scrapbook 9/21/2014

Air Show Sunday. September 21, 2014.  Scrap book feature

Library > Gunfighter Skies 2014 About Gunfighter Skies  Welcome to Gunfighter Skies 2014! The Open House and Air Show is open to the public and admission is FREE. During the 2014 Gunfighter Skies Open House and Air Show the safety of our military members, families and the public is our highest priority. Click here to view our precautionary messages. We look forward to seeing you September 20th and 21st! Air Show Hours    9 a.m. - Gates opens 11 a.m. - Air show begins   4 p.m. - Air show ends   5 p.m. - Gates closed ***Times are subject to change.*** Parking  Gunfighter Skies Logo  Static  T-38 Talon T-1A Jayhawk T-6A Texan II B-1B Lancer UH-1N Iroquois B-52 Stratofortress KC-10 Extender   KC-135 Stratotanker C-17 Globemaster F-16 Fighting Falcon F-35A Lighning II  C-130 Hercules MQ-1B Predator A-10 Thunderbolt II F-18 Hornet   Flightline Map   2014 Gunfighter Skies Preview  Public Service Announcement  Open House/Air Show Public Service Announcement  Air Show Performers  Headlining Mountain Home's Open House and Air Show are the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds who perform precision aerial maneuvers demonstrating the capabilities of Air Force high performance aircraft to people throughout the world. Click on the link for more information. www.mountainhome.af.mil/news/story.asp Performers   Thunderbirds   Randy Harris & Bearfeat Skybolt 300   MXS R and Edge 300   F-15E Strike Eagle                USAF Wings of Blue    Oliver's Sky Dancer

Qatar's A-380 Is A Full Load For Passengers

Qatar receives its first A-380 and there is a full pictorial review of The Qatar touch enclosed in the online article. Since the A-380 has space it uses space from 18.5 inch wide seats for 461 economy, 32 inch pitch, or short hand note as 18.5 x 32.  First class is 23" X 90" flat bed, and the 22" x 80" flat bed Business Class.

Photo tour: Qatar’s Airbus A380 first, business class

First Class suite with eight seats 23" X 90"

Business Class 22" X  90"

Head on View Business Class 22" X 80"

Economy below decks and at the stern of upper deck, 18.5" X 32"

Its Time to show Economy 18.5 X 32

You have room and you have lots of seats for 517. Now let's go fly on some 787's anywhere else the A-380 doesn't have a landing permit. 

Boeing's Factory At Jet Lag Status

Below is an unidentified factory mechanic for Boeing quoted from a response board on a Boeing article. Even though this not a quotable name, but it brings to light problems that are being resolved on a daily basis on the factory floor.

Reader Link Below:

Problems still plague 787; Boeing slows assembly in Everett

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unidentified Workforce Comment:

"Traveled work is the result, not the problem. Incomplete sections come in from all over hell's half acre, and with the rate increase, they don't have time to finish the work in the factory, so, out to the flight-line it goes. This screws those of us who work out on the line, because of all of the factory workers bumbling around our stalls. We can't do our jobs, either because the planes are not complete enough, or someone from the factory is in our way.

We are supposed to be "The Delivery Center". We are not supposed to be building these planes out in the rain! Management like Dave Carbon insist that we shouldn't act like victims, but that is exactly what we are....victims of a poor management team. Then when other management is pushing to ignore safety policies, or to just push the job through so we show progress, we are being set up for disaster. Either one or more of us is going to get hurt or killed, or one of these plastic tubes is going to be a smoking hole somewhere. 

The FAA needs to send real inspectors, from Washington D.C., not the good ol' boys that are stationed in the area, and do a complete investigation of the program from the bottom to the top. Come talk to the hourly guys that are doing the work BEFORE they talk to the top brass. They would pull the PC700 on the 787 program in a NY minute.

It is funny that the quality of work on the Everett Flight-line is great at the north end, Stall 101 and 102 being the best, and by the time one gets to Stalls 108 through 201,....they all wear hockey helmets and the product shows!"

___________________________________________

Pretty harsh words and unverified, other than just coming from a news article comment page.  It shows that nerves are on edge and management is keeping a composed expression, during the stresses. When action is required, and is not coming any time soon. This factory first response is calling for the Cavalry as the production floor needs help. A time out was called in August to put the train back on the track. Boeing should not put itself into a hoping it works mode, when any change on the cheap may not help. It has to be the right change.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Unnamed Comment Response /Same Article: 

"Also, some 787's are built in Everett, and flown to Charleston for delivery, since they can't build their own. Qatar said they don't want their planes built in Charleston due to quality issues.

I, personally love the 787. The hourly workers on Everett Flight-line do a damn good job of making sure things are done right. 

There are a few managers that are true airplane people, and between them, and the mechanics and QA out on the line, make sure that the work we do is proper.

Most of the 787 flight-line workers came to Boeing from all over the aviation world, and have a lot of experience, and a desire to make sure things are safe with the plane. 

The management caring more about numbers and their bean count is the bottleneck. They only care about making themselves look good. A sick example is that one of the circus clowns mentioned in a previous post, was offering autographs because he made it in the paper. They just don't get it. 

I guess this is what should be expected when the company is run by someone stupid enough to say that after his 65th birthday, he will still be running the place and the workers will still be cowering!

Well Jim, many of the workers weren't cowering before, and sure as hell aren't cowering now! I am sure there will be some other juicy tidbits that come to light...."

1,013 Net Boeing Orders Before End of 3rd Quarter

Added:

• 67 Unidentified 737's
• 5 Avalon  737's
• 6 Avalon 787's
• Total Booked 78 units

Boeing Chart Link

Orders through September 16, 2014	737	747	767	777	787	Total
2014 Net Orders	729	1		259	24	1013
Air Algerie	10					10
Air Canada	61					61
Alaska Airlines	6					6
ALC	21			6		27
All Nippon Airways				26	14	40
Avolon	5				6	11
Belavia	3					3
BOC Aviation	80			2		82
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)	2			1	1	4
Cargolux Airlines		1				1
CIT Leasing Corporation					10	10
COPA Airlines	2					2
Eastern Air Lines	10					10
Emirates				150		150
GECAS	5					5
Intrepid Aviation				6		6
Jackson Square Aviation	3					3
Japan TransOcean Air	6					6
MG Aviation Limited					2	2
Nok Air	15					15
Okay Airways Company Limited	10					10
Qatar Airways				50		50
Ryanair	5					5
SunExpress Airlines	40					40
Turkish Airlines	15					15
Turkmenistan Airlines	3					3
Unidentified Customer(s)	471			18		489
United States Navy	16					16
2014 Gross Orders	789	1		259	33	1082
Changes	-60				-9	-69
2014 Net Orders	729	1		259	24	1013
	737	747	767	777	787	Total

With only the fourth quarter remaining for booking sales, its on course for successive banner years. Having the China Needs Market Report for the next twenty years stand at 6,010, the Boeing case is made, and it is well on to something. Airbus had the the first decade during this 21st century. Boeing is staking out the second decade. Where it's completing just the fourth year of this ten year segment, it takes the lead for aircraft innovation and manufacturing.

It is capable of receiving 250 more orders for all types, by years end. As there are usually a flurry of commitments turned orders, and final deals brokered during the 4th quarter. An expectation for all model types would be included in this 2014 final quarter sales/bookings prediction. Yet to come are: outstanding bookings including Ryan Air's fleet of 787 MAX-200's with additional options. That order is in the finalization mode. Not guessing who the unidentified 67, 737's, there also remains a pool of 737 from other commitments during 2014, that may pull the trigger for an order finalization before years end. It is soundly conceivable, the fourth quarter expectation for a 250 order mark is not an exaggeration.

However, if this year ended today, the 1,013 order mark becomes a remarkable year in itself, since Boeing is producing 600+ plus units a year, they will backlog or fall back further by another 400 units as production capacity cannot keep up with orders. The backlog count increases when subtracting average yearly delivery numbers from annual orders. If this prediction comes even close to 250 additional 4th Qtr. orders, then incremental change or the backlog number would increase to a larger 650 unit number for the year, against its current production rate. Boeing may end the year with a theoretical 1,263 orders booked or more.

Readers Review: Found on Randy's Journal

Looking At 52-(per month)