1,013 Net Boeing Orders Before End of 3rd Quarter

Added:

• 67 Unidentified 737's
• 5 Avalon  737's
• 6 Avalon 787's
• Total Booked 78 units

Boeing Chart Link

Orders through September 16, 2014	737	747	767	777	787	Total
2014 Net Orders	729	1		259	24	1013
Air Algerie	10					10
Air Canada	61					61
Alaska Airlines	6					6
ALC	21			6		27
All Nippon Airways				26	14	40
Avolon	5				6	11
Belavia	3					3
BOC Aviation	80			2		82
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)	2			1	1	4
Cargolux Airlines		1				1
CIT Leasing Corporation					10	10
COPA Airlines	2					2
Eastern Air Lines	10					10
Emirates				150		150
GECAS	5					5
Intrepid Aviation				6		6
Jackson Square Aviation	3					3
Japan TransOcean Air	6					6
MG Aviation Limited					2	2
Nok Air	15					15
Okay Airways Company Limited	10					10
Qatar Airways				50		50
Ryanair	5					5
SunExpress Airlines	40					40
Turkish Airlines	15					15
Turkmenistan Airlines	3					3
Unidentified Customer(s)	471			18		489
United States Navy	16					16
2014 Gross Orders	789	1		259	33	1082
Changes	-60				-9	-69
2014 Net Orders	729	1		259	24	1013
	737	747	767	777	787	Total

With only the fourth quarter remaining for booking sales, its on course for successive banner years. Having the China Needs Market Report for the next twenty years stand at 6,010, the Boeing case is made, and it is well on to something. Airbus had the the first decade during this 21st century. Boeing is staking out the second decade. Where it's completing just the fourth year of this ten year segment, it takes the lead for aircraft innovation and manufacturing.

It is capable of receiving 250 more orders for all types, by years end. As there are usually a flurry of commitments turned orders, and final deals brokered during the 4th quarter. An expectation for all model types would be included in this 2014 final quarter sales/bookings prediction. Yet to come are: outstanding bookings including Ryan Air's fleet of 787 MAX-200's with additional options. That order is in the finalization mode. Not guessing who the unidentified 67, 737's, there also remains a pool of 737 from other commitments during 2014, that may pull the trigger for an order finalization before years end. It is soundly conceivable, the fourth quarter expectation for a 250 order mark is not an exaggeration.

However, if this year ended today, the 1,013 order mark becomes a remarkable year in itself, since Boeing is producing 600+ plus units a year, they will backlog or fall back further by another 400 units as production capacity cannot keep up with orders. The backlog count increases when subtracting average yearly delivery numbers from annual orders. If this prediction comes even close to 250 additional 4th Qtr. orders, then incremental change or the backlog number would increase to a larger 650 unit number for the year, against its current production rate. Boeing may end the year with a theoretical 1,263 orders booked or more.

Readers Review: Found on Randy's Journal

Looking At 52-(per month)

Boeing Promises Pegasus Tanker Won't Tank

Boeing is at the crossroads of its hard won Tanker Project, the KC-46 767 Tanker. They were awarded this project at "A Fixed Cost" over the A330 platform from the Airbus bid. Its has a convertible space for medic vac or resupply, as well as fighter jet fuel or other operational aircraft types needing fuel such as AWACS aircraft.  The KC-46 Tanker has now exceeded government money and continues to dip into Boeing money to make it right. The front and center issue at this time is a wiring harness "debacle". There are miles and miles of electrical cable in the 767 body installed exclusively for redundancy. The wiring harness gathers all associated power lines for power distribution in its systems. Duplicate, triplicate and more redundancy is required by the military and must meet certain environmental condition giving assurances, during combat conditions. The KC-46 Tanker can complete its mission, even with a catastrophic event during combat, like an errant missile strike or 20 millimeter cannon fire from an intruder aircraft.

That's the bottom combat line. All power cables  must meet certain survivable constructs within the aircraft. A well intended military idea, and a proven methodology for combat aircraft. Boeing must string wires independent from each other and allow enough insulation, space and protection for redundant cables between the other power lines, which also are making its way towards a wiring harness, then becomes a transfer point of power destined to equipment, flight deck and other special systems tasked by the KC-46 capabilities.

Boeing has assured the military it will fix the under(mis)-engineered harnesses, which are coupled together not unlike like a harness found in your automobile, such as a car brake light, and/or headlight, or dash board electronics. They all have harnesses bringing its power to different systems.

On the farm, a tractor didn't have a harness to connect power to a tractors electrical system back in that day. A farmer might buy some black electrical tape, stripe the end of two wires and then twists the ends of the wire together, before wrapping the black tape around the wire the farmer just twisted together( A Farm Wire Harness). A modern car has wires going into a plug looking harness and it snaps together routing power to the headlights. Sometimes those harnesses have in line fuses that break the power when a fault occurs or a power surge is encountered The fuse will protect the device drawing power by breaking and shutting off the power surge before it damages the device for what the power is intended.

Take that simple illustration of a harness function and add five redundant power systems with 120 miles of big power cables, bundled in the KC-46 Tanker. If the harness design or the manufacturer of that key part is wrong in its design; the electrical function is subject to failure and electrical system becomes a high risk in its function when considering stringing 120 miles of electrical cable. Its all about exploding fuel tankers, sparks and combat. Wires and harnesses are a touchy subject with the Air Force Tanker program. Boeing needs to review what it is bringing to the military table.

The Air Force inspects systems before first flight is attempted. It's done doing that thing called inspection, and Boeing has now been sent back to fix its under specification harness and wire engineering problems. It's not a show stopper on the project, but its expensive and time consuming for the Boeing R&D workforce to get the power system corrected for it to meet "Air Force Expectation". Cables must meet certain standards in the layout schemed, as the Air Force requested in the bid process, specifically for this aircraft. It appears that Boeing didn't always meet that standards where a small percentage of the electrical cable does not meet those standards or conditions of installment required, and the harnesses over-all needs a "redesign". It is millions of dollars, and thousands of hours, where it will then cost more millions if Boeing comes in late with the KC-46.

Here is what Boeing is saying (paraphrased), "We will get it fixed on our dime, where we will still make money on this project by the time we deliver the contract of 179 tankers.  We will not be late, since these type of  things are typical on all projects, and we have made provisions for speeds bumps during any project. This certainly is not a show stopper at this phase of the project."

They also hope to sell more after that 179 number to other military partnered countries, once the project takes off during the military delivery cycle.

The good news, the style of fixed cost has its merits. No experimentation on the aircraft structure is needed or is the engine type used a question. The F-35 is going through a vetting process on everything hung on the air frame. The KC-46 issues, so far, are non commercial problems. The problems are and should be confined to the military side of the program. A wire snag which is awkward, but fixable without more experimentation of the aircraft development. Its a "Just Do It" solution throwing more $millions at the problem, while avoiding any Air Force late fees and angst(anger).

Reader Research Link Below:

Air Force "Disappointed" in Boeing tanker delays; issues cost Boeing millions

Air Force leadership confident in KC-46 program

Return On Ryan Air Investment 737 Max

What to make out of Ryan Air Investment in 100 737 MAX 200 ordered (committed). The ROI model is for both for the bottom line and sensible air transportation. "More" does not necessarily constitute a problem on passengers, part when profits are a key motivator for corporate flying. The Return on (Ryan Air) Investment is through the passenger model. Ryan Air has selected a 197 seat configured special 737-200 MAX. It wasn't all about cramming seats in an allotted space for more tickets. A line was drawn near the back of the Max 200.



What has Ryan Air done with Boeing? From everything I have read, its a simple plan that is ingenious for passengers and Ryan Air alike. At 199 seats, it is established by authorities, where an expansion of a crew member is required by just one, mainly a flight attendant. That saved the passengers some room grief when slotting 197 seats..

A limit going past 189 seats required another exit door! Boeing says done! Ryan Air buys extra seats for its own business model, because you don't need a full course meal on 90 minute flights, or less. A power drill whines, and hammering shrinks the galley space into a snack bar station. More seats needed please, but no more than 197, thanks.

Now comes the passenger comfort caveat. Seats will receive an increase in spacing with room for 197 passengers. Because Ryan Air doesn't want to pay for that extra flight attendant, if it had seated 199 passengers. It won't hire one extra attendant and increase its ticket prices.

However, people will not be squeezed into a steerage space from the glut of first class space. Everybody gets a shot at flexing legs and resting without a knee knocking in your back. Also, I can fly for 90 minutes without Cordon  Bleu chicken on my lap tray.

Its a war of inches for Ryan Air, they turned lemons into lemon-aide. More customer space and one less crew member required since not going up to 199 seats. Plus one more exit door and no full galley in the stern. Its a win-win for ticket prices and customers seated. Bring on a Ryan Air Carry-on Food Box ( RACFB; I had to do it or somebody else would!) bought at the Boarding Desk (my fantasy), and gain passenger room. Its also a win for Ryan Air with its MAX designed, performance enhanced 737. Its a fun people mover. Its a European connector. It may have Atlantic legs from selected Airports (you may need a Ryan Air Boarding Lunch Box (RABLB) for that one).

The CEO of Ryan Air, Michael O'Leary, continues to think out of the box or RABLB with his equipment disposition. He insisted that the MAX was not for him when he ordered 175 737 NG's several years back. After further review, he has landed right in the MAX solution with the 737-200 extended passenger form, and with a 737 for more customer space. Watch out Southwest Airlines, you may want a few of these 737's on the west coast, If not Ryan Air may show up one day.

Reference Link From:

Runway Girl Network

The Case Of The Missing 787 Battery

I'm not Sherlock Holmes, so I don't lay clam for solving a case like Sherlock. However, Boeing is stuck with a potentially volatile battery. You may know it as the smoking Lithion-ion 787 battery. Much like any problem, it has sent intellectuals in a scurry for the perfect battery. Its a billion dollar reward for any industrial minded CEO. From time to time, a news flash appears on the front page. Boeing is way ahead of the reporting. In this case they may be granting money towards a battery research solution and will gladly install a  no fault Lithium-Sulfur Battery (LSB), yes you heard right a Lithium-Sulfur Battery.

Currently a project is well under way  for the development of such named concept battery. Its already gone through proof of concept lab testing and it works up to 1500 cycles at this point. So here are the talking points.

• It doesn't smoke
• Its doesn't heat
• It doesn't flame
• It doesn't explode

But what does it do:

• It is more powerful
• It contains more electricity
• It is essentially error free in its cells and totally stable
• It has a cheaper  construction
• It will be available in two years for commercial application. From cell phones, computers, etc.

What does this mean for the 787?

If all goes well in lab testing and developing it will revolutionize electrical power at all levels from solar cells power transference to automotive power and beyond.

Good Bye Lithium Ion Risks, Hello LSB's

Steps to market have been identified,.

In two years send the smaller battery's out to electronic devices. Run it in millions of lap top computers. Then graduate it to the bigger stuff like cars, Solar cell homes, and any other large application in the market place. After a several year run on big stuff maybe Boeing will apply liberally to all 787's by 2020. Both new and old in a major refit. We are now talking $Billions. 

My attention is gained, so here comes the news article!

 Powerful batteries for renewable energy being developed at Nazarbayev University

Below is The School of Engineering at Nazarbayev University has been developing powerful batteries for renewable energy, Tengrinews reports citing Dr. Zhumabay Bakenov.

Sample of New Lithium-ion Batteries

Bellow is The Lithium Sulfur Battery (LSB)

Samples of the new lithiumumina

The School of Engineering at Nazarbayev University has been developing powerful batteries for renewable energy, Tengrinews reports citing Dr. Zhumabay Bakenov.

“We are working on batteries for different uses: for accumulator vehicle and electric appliances. But we mainly focus on batteries for renewable energy that required a system for storage of solar and wind energy," Dr. Bakenov said.

"There are lithium-sulfur batteries and lithium ion batteries. The first type of batteries has high energy density, meaning it works for a very long time. Theoretically speaking, it could work 10 times longer than any available batteries. Lithium ion batteries are safe and environmentally friendly. Those batteries do not contain heavy metals and aggressive solvents and will not combust,” Dr. Bakenov told the journalists at the sidelines of the 2nd International Scientific Research Seminar.

The seminar gathered researches from Japan, South Korea, Germany, Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan at the Nazarbayev University in Astana.

The lithium-sulfur batteries are being developed for the use in electric appliances, electric transportation and renewable energy. While the lithium ion batteries development is focused specifically on renewable energy for large storage systems, he said.

The lithium-ion battery is a rechargeable battery in which lithium ions move from the negative electrode to the positive electrode during discharge and back when charging. The electrolyte which allows for ionic movement, and the two electrodes are the consistent components of a lithium-ion cell.

The lithium-ion battery are common in consumer electronics. They are one of the most popular types of rechargeable batteries for portable electronics, with a high energy density, no memory effect, and only a slow loss of charge when not in use. 

Lithium-ion batteries can be dangerous under some conditions and can pose a safety hazard since they contain, unlike other rechargeable batteries, a flammable electrolyte and are also kept pressurised. 

Speaking about his invention on an earlier occasion Dr. Bakenov said that the cathode that was used in his battery was what drove the breakthrough. “It all comes down to the cathode,” he said, but added that there still was “a safety problem” that the team was dealing with.

The lithium–sulfur battery is a rechargeable battery, notable for its high energy density. Lithium–sulfur batteries may succeed lithium-ion cells because of their higher energy density and reduced cost from the use of sulfur. Currently the best Li-S batteries offer energy densities on the order of 500 W·h/kg, significantly better than most lithium-ion batteries which are in the 150 to 200 range. Li-S batteries with up to 1,500 charge and discharge cycles have already been demonstrated, but their are not commercially available.

The Professor explained that the new battery's capacity was 10 times that of the available batteries only in theory, but in practice the scientists were planning to release 5-times-longer-working batteries, which is also a huge step forward.

The NU scientists plan to present a prototype in two years. "We are planning to be ready with the first type battery in one year and with the second time battery in two years. We are not sure about serial production yet. But we have already received a license. So we will be considering either selling the license or transferring (rights) to our development,” he said.

The project is funded by Nazarbayev University, the World Bank and the Ministry of Education of Kazakhstan.

“Lithium ion batteries that we have in our phones laptops are expensive, toxic and dangerous. You probably remember the incident with Boeing 787 Dreamliner. (The flights were canceled because of a battery problem). It happened because they used organic electrolytes and they caught fire. And we are developing batteries that will not have this shortcoming, because inside there will be nothing to inflame,” Dr. Bakenov said.

Nazarbayev University hopes that once the batteries are ready they will be produced and marketed in Kazakhstan. “We are working with KazAtomProm and also discussing this project with Samruk-Energo. There are companies like Astana Solar and Taldykorgan-based battery plant Kainar AKB. We hope to use their technologies to test our batteries and subsequently used the batteries in their equipment,” Dr. Bakenov said.

At the seminar, Kazakhstani researches presented their projects to foreign colleagues. “Nazarbayev University has really good laboratories. We want others to realize that we are not an inexperienced bunch, but full-fledged partners. This also gives an opportunity to exchange experience and show results of our research,” the Professor concluded. 

Before returning to his home Kazakhstan in 2011 Dr. Zhumabay Bakenov used to work on various research projects in Japan and Canada for almost 10 years.

Dr. Bakenov holds the 2010 Award of Ceramic Society of Japan for series of work on ceramics for energy storage application. He is a active member of the Electrochemical Society (ECS USA), the Electrochemical Society of Japan (ECS-J) and American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE).

He is now working on advanced techniques for high energy density materials for renewable energy storage, development of advanced rechargeable batteries for energy storage for grid connection with renewable energy sources, development of innovative rechargeable aqueous lithium-ion battery for large scale energy storage, high energy density ecologically-friendly Batteries for grid connection of renewable sources and electric vehicles, and on novel collagen and hydroxyapatite scaffolds for the repair of age related bone and cartilage defects.

Reporting by Altynay Zhumzhumina, writing by Gyuzel Kamalova, editing by Tatyana Kuzmina

For more information see:http://en.tengrinews.kz/science/Powerful-batteries-for-renewable-energy-being-developed-at-Nazarbayev-University-256046/
Use of the Tengrinews English materials must be accompanied by a hyperlink to en.Tengrinews.kz

Samples of the new lithium-sulfur batteries.Photo © Altynay Zhumzhumina

Boeing Makes Commitment To China Sooner Rather Than Later

In airline parlance, airlines usually makes a "commitment" to an Airplane seller, leaving the back door open in case a change occurs in the market. These commitments can fold like a cheap suit with some cash exchanged. In a sense its a soft sell that airplane builders don't like to display as its feature during a Paris Airshow, because of risk for future embarrassment when an airline could back out and goes to its competitor maker (see the Emirates deal unravel for Airbus' 70 A-350 dropped).

However, if an airline maker makes a commitment to a region, it goes hard, and it can expect it to cross traditional  boundaries, and scoop up more sales than it normally would gain in its past. Boeing has made that hard commitment of pursuing both traditional customer strong holds and newly emerging airlines and markets in China.

What did they achieve? Hundreds of single aisle, and dozens of wide body commitments or sales in return of the effort. Those commitments will bloom on any given year during an airshow as sales. Boeing has nurtured a China Market, where notice is taken by Airbus over its formerly dominant market. Boeing has reached parity, and gone beyond Airbus, during the last two years with its order commitments in the market place..

A commitment is a two edge sward. It has the capability of a place holder for both price and production slots at the same time, or it becomes a price tease against a competitor like Airbus who tries to match it. However, the clock starts moving once a commitment is made. The customer has a drop dead date if reached, which will exclude them from an Aircraft makers special treatment list if they don't firm it into an order. The airline also loses its deposit made at the point of commitment, thus reducing potential temptation of going for "another" makers special offer. So commitments do matter as they are one foot and one leg in the sales transaction door. They have bragging rights for an extremely large order to its own competitors, as it will probably make a sales announcement at a reoccurring world class airshow from Asia to Europe.

Boeing has positioned itself well after its marketing team has committed to China in a robust effort from its sales minion during these two years. I can only surmise that Airbus was late getting out the starting gate, as it was attending over its own minion in the wide body debacle, when it lost ground to Boeing. Boeing has put boots on the ground in a military sales fashion in China. Its people have rallied to China's needs, during its own explosive market condition. The missing key to the situation is airplane war time customer production capacity. China needs single aisle sooner rather than later. Boeing needs 50+ single aisle production capability now rather than later, as it will scoop up more China orders and deliveries in a timely fashion.

Boeing's commitment to China is "we are talking the talk and walking the walk, let's do it together and now." China has begun a chorused response of, "yes, let's do it"!

That is first out of the gate China syndrome for Boeing, where Airbus states," Its just commitments and we will dominate China soon. We have, "blah, blah, blah aircraft in the region and have not yet begun to give away aircraft ". John Paul Jones was found missing during the French response. Boeing knows an Airbus counter offer is coming sooner rather than later too. Boeing has ground air to catch up in the NEO, NG and Max wars. I noticed Boeing isn't doing hoopla pressers over the MAX like they did with the 787 back in 2005. They are laying low with Max accomplishments, because they are making remarkable progress with the MAX design and suppliers. The targets Boeing has set are made with a sooner rather than later goals. Having "Project Hush", is well down the road. The China Syndrome is not atomic syndrome, as found in the Jane Fonda's epic movie. It is "can you get here faster, please Boeing"! Airbus is stuck in the starting gate with China during this go around. Boeing's commitment to China represents just as customer's commitment is that Boeing foot and leg in the commitment door as well.

Below is a detailed link from The Seattle Times for more market data information.

Boeing Succeeds In Early Wooing Of China Airline Startups  

Boeing has recently won more orders than Airbus from China’s rapidly expanding start up airlines and claims a big spurt in overall China sales commitments this year. This follows years when the U.S. jet-maker’s fortunes flagged in what will soon be the world’s largest aircraft maker.

By Dominic Gates

Seattle Times aerospace reporter

PREV  1 of 6  NEXT

MIKE SIEGEL / THE SEATTLE TIMES, 2012

A Chinese dragon greets a 737 for longtime customer China Southern Airlines. Boeing and Airbus are competing for China’s newer airlines.

Auckand To Perth Air New Zealnd 787-9 Flight Card

Air New Zealand has opened up the capability of its 787-9 with Its  Next Big Step. Going to Perth and back seeing what the economy for its stretch 787 actually registers on alonger leg. Because the Blog likes graffics here in is some info on the route.

Air Miles PER to AKL

The flight distance from Perth International Airport to Auckland International Airport is 3319miles (5342 kilometers, 2884 nautical miles).

Flight Duration

Estimated flight time is 6 h 47 min.

Time Difference

Time difference between Perth and Auckland is 4 Hours. Current local time in Perth is 2014-09-12, 09:18 WST and time in Auckland is 2014-09-12, 13:18 NZST.

 Plane's Quiet Visit To Perth

GEOFFREY THOMAS AVIATION EDITOR The West AustralianSeptember 12, 2014, 5:24 am
The world's quietist and most advanced commercial passenger plane, the 302-seat Boeing 787-9, will touch down in Perth for the first time this evening in the colours of Air New Zealand.


And the arrival is the first of many 787s to visit Perth soon, with Scoot to introduce the plane in the coming months.


Boeing's 787 is the first of a new breed of plane that boasts extraordinary environmental credentials cutting fuel consumption by 20 per cent and slashing noise around the airport.


Whereas the jet noise from the first 707s affected 86sqkm, the 787's noise footprint is almost confined to the airport boundary. The 787-9, Air New Zealand's first, is scheduled to touch down at 6.10pm.


Air New Zealand will operate the 787 daily between Auckland and Perth from October 15, and up to that date the airline will use the 787 on the route on an ad hoc basis.


The airline has ordered and optioned 18 787s and will get its second in two weeks.


Second to buy the 787, Air New Zealand is also the launch customer for the bigger 787-9 that carries 302 passengers in a four-class cabin.


The 787 is the first plane that can beat jet lag with higher cabin humidity levels, lower cabin altitude settings, reduced noise and a much smoother ride.


As well as these advances, the Air New Zealand 787 also features the world's most advanced in-flight entertainment system which does away with the handheld control.


Now passengers have all their controls on the seat back video screen - including light, flight attendant call button, sound level and brightness.


Also you can text the flight attendant for food or drinks and get an answer.


The IFE system has been designed in New Zealand in partnership with Panasonic and has an app-based touch screen system.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monthly Feature, Zumwalt Class Destroyer Progression

Number Two Is On Deck in the production progress of the Zumwalt Class Destroyer. The main, above surface component, is the Deck House. It's made of composite material and some steel giving it a dual function of housing and stealthiness.

Referenced Below by:

HII delivers composite deckhouse for second Zumwalt-class destroyer

Grace Jean, Washington, DC - IHS Jane's Navy International

"Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) handed over its second and final composite deckhouse for the US Navy's (USN's) Zumwalt-class destroyer program on 7 August.

HII's Gulfport Composite Center of Excellence based in Gulfport, Mississippi, manufactured the 900-tonne carbon fiber composite deck, which is to be barged up to Bath, Maine, where prime contractor General Dynamics Bath Iron Works (GDBIW) will integrate it onto the steel hull of second-in-class Zumwalt destroyer Michael Monsoor(DDG 1001).

Gulfport also produced the ship's 220-tonne composite hangar, which was delivered to the navy on 25 September 2013 and subsequently transported up to Bath.

As expected, HII has shuttered its Gulfport facility due to declining naval work in composites. The company was to have built a third deckhouse and hangar for the Zumwalt program, but navy officials opted to return to an all-steel superstructure design on the third and final ship of the class, Lyndon B Johnson (DDG 1002), after failed price negotiations with HII. The USN subsequently awarded a USD212 million design and construction contract to GDBIW, the program's prime contractor, on 2 August 2013.

USN program officials previously told IHS Jane's that part of the decision was based on a decrease in the overall weight of the Zumwalt-class ships, which allowed the navy to revert to a steel deckhouse and hangar design.

The USN is acquiring a three-ship Zumwalt class. Lead ship Zumwalt (DDG 1000), which is being completed and tested at GDBIW, is expected to reach initial operational capability in 2016."

The A380 Goes UP Against Air New Zealand's 787

Down under as in way down under a classic airline battle is emerging with the Tasman- New Zealand routes. Emirates places its A380 in the middle if the air war with Air New Zealand , Australian Jetstar and other alliances.

From: Sydney Morning Herald;  

"Emirates flies three A380 superjumbos each day between Australia's east coast and Auckland, each of which can seat 489 passengers." 

It quoted Emirates having only a 56% occupancy rate for these flights. ooops! That is  only 273 passengers on average for the big behemoth.

"The latest government traffic statistics show weak passenger loads on flights between Australia and New Zealand. Qantas filled 61 per cent of its seats on the route in June, Emirates 56 per cent, Jetstar 72 per cent, Virgin 74 per cent and Air New Zealand 78 per cent."

The 787-9 will complete tipping the trade balance in the region, against the A380 and chase it off. I don't even need a crystal ball to see that coming. Jet Stars seats 300, a Qantas Subsidiary. New Zealand 787-9 Seats about 300. Air fares are dropping to record lows as the 787's can afford to drop airfares  with its efficiency of almost 80% percent loads. The A-380 will need to go elsewhere to make even an Australian Dollar.

"Virgin also plans to introduce a business-class service on all trans-Tasman routes from early next year. Air New Zealand offers business-class on its twin-aisle Boeing 777 aircraft which fly between Australia and New Zealand but not its smaller A320 planes. 

Air New Zealand's stretched version of the Dreamliner – the 787-9 – includes business and premium classes.

The trans-Tasman market has become a two-way fight between (Qantas-Emirates) and (Virgin and its largest shareholder, Air New Zealand). Between them, the alliance groups carry about 97 per cent of passenger traffic between Australia and New Zealand."

Hey isn't Virgin getting some 787's. Could this be the beginning of a A-380 implosion? The "I just want to get there crowd" is demonstrating who may win the war in the long run. Two choices are before the passenger, get on the Big Beast and go Terminal hopping, or go where you want the first time with a cheaper fare on a 787. By now one can see the simple strategy of either eggs in one basket, or custom travel on an 787. Markets continue to evolve where airplane capability does not change, therefore a sound strategy is to look for the most flexible aircraft in any market, which happens to the family of 787, in my humble opinion.

787 Delivery Pace Settles on 40 more 787's by Years End

Boeing has settled 70 787 with its customers and is flying during 2014. Early guidance suggests 40 more 787 are on the way before December 31, 2014. It will establish a new benchmark of 110 787's in one year added to the World's fleet. The additional seat capacity is an approximately 250 seats -times-110 aircraft, equaling 27,500 seats added on the 787 networks each day. This incremental increase could represent a significant 787 usage number in both miles and travelers. Image 10,075,000 passenger increase in just one year. It has already established over 20 million passengers have flown on the 787. At the end of 2014 it will be 30,000,000 (million) or more passengers flying on the 787.

Bless Al Jazeera for finding unhappy Boeing workers who have any story to report on 787 quality, at Charleston SC. A disgruntled and alarmed workforce is a good starting point for interviews. Its a reflection on management, and the workforce at Charleston. Boeing is or was aware of floor problems. That is why it takes longer at Charleston for delivery of any 787. One level of work knows the problems as it passes by its work station. Buy the time it (787) is finally delivered, it is a safe airplane with many do-overs on the work order.  If anything can be said about a Union WorkForce is its, higher accountability for work performed. Nothing is worse than having your working peers telling someone "Don't screw it up for everybody else". The floor stewards in Everett keep a sharp eye out for both management, and work performance. I'm not sure this kind of relationship exists in Charleston, SC. Who's the idea was it to allow Al Jazeera in with a hidden camera. Workers can't even do that trick for themselves. Somebody is getting fired or demoted for allowing in, Al Jazeera, as a decision. Even though workers recognize its own floor problems and mistakes, Boeing makes a continuous improvement model as part of airplane building and doesn't sweep the sawdust under the carpet as a solution.

Al Jazeera noted, it took over a year to get its extracted information, during its in-depth reporting research. It appears it targeted the negative side of the workplace.

Even though it interviewed both Union and Non-Union players, the focus was on any and all problems where it would sell copy. I can't blame them, they are doing its job for the traveling public. However, the sky is not falling in on the 787. Quite the contrary, Boeing's stake in this report has many layers, from management, the supplier, and then the workforce. Engineering is a stakeholder too. If it can not design or make reliable parts then it is not competent and that problem will be corrected, as it has already done so many times during this project. The risk is too high for Boeing to do it any other way at this point, and it will react to this bit of news pointed out in the press.

Did Al Jeezera "hyperbole" Boeing? I think not, only it took anecdotal information and placed it awkwardly as the Boeing standard when in reality that standard is watched every hour of every day. Some people on the floor have a different perspective, and Boeing doesn't always listen to the noise coming from the floor (AL Jazeera did), but it tracks what isn't correct and fixes it before delivery. Otherwise, there would have been a far more 787 emergencies than what it has experienced. Air India is a prime example of Charleston's work.

Is The Boeing China Report Too Soft Or Too Hard.

Rnady Tinseth Boeing Marketing VP, recently made a forecast on China Airplane needs over the next 20 years.

Via Randy's Blog:

Over the next 20 years, we project China will need 6,020 new commercial airplanes valued at $870 billion. That accounts for more than 16 percent of the total global demand in terms of both new deliveries and market value.

Some say this is too soft of a number since it does not take into account fleet renewals over the course of time. I personal cannot fathom not compiling in its forecast a variable for renewal as some kind of percentage occurring every year in the math model. Here is what IBA Had To Say.

IBA Calls Boeing Forecast For New Aircraft In China 'Too Conservative'

David Yu, IBA’s Regional Director - China, comments: “Whilst the new policies will stimulate growth throughout the region, it is also important to consider that over 900 aircraft are expected to be retired over this period. According to JetData, IBA’s commercial aircraft database, the current Chinese fleet is composed of over 2,400 aircraft, with an average age of 7.8 years. With a current outstanding backlog comprising 42 A320 family aircraft, 35 A330 aircraft, 24 A350 aircraft, 87 737 family aircraft, six 747 aircraft, 50 777 aircraft and 22 787 family aircraft, coupled with the predicted aviation industry growth over the next 20 years, there will be an abundance of opportunities created for the supply chain, and especially for local aircraft leasing companies who have steadily grown over the last five years. At present, 34% of the current fleet is on lease.” 

IBA sees significant opportunities for experienced support from global aviation consultancy companies to provide a range of services to the Chinese airlines, as well as lessors, investors and lenders who will finance the deliveries. Owen Geach, IBA’s Commercial Director explains: “The Chinese Government and many leading operators are engaging with expert advisors who have experienced the complex organisational and financial structures that such fast growth demands. As an independent adviser in the financial sector, IBA is aiding the management of new order delivery processes and works with stakeholders to create sustainable growth as the market expands both in terms of regional rates and in the number of aircraft. The Chinese aviation sector will need financing, so lenders, lessors and export credit agencies will seek asset management and advisory services to protect their exposure.” 

------------------------------------------------

Indices Check In Randy's Number and the IBA Statement.

All forecast take into account a seasonal affect on its mathematical projections. This seasonality will try to replicate affects of economy, demand and/or fleet retirements. Without knowing how Boeing compiled the seasonality factors it would be difficult to understand how Randy's people or the IBA reached its own conclusions. However, most forecast try to error on the side of conservatism, not to over exagerate a prediction. It is important when relaying a financial outlook for the industry, by not leading those who will be influenced on your remarks, with a large presumption for that outlook.