Boeing Attacks The Future With The 787

JAL just landed in Vancouver, Wa with its 787-8. What rides with these 186 first passengers is an army of technicians, engineers and designers. Boeing has unleashed an army of human resource to master  the refinement of the 787 in a short time period. It also has ramped up the build to 10 a month the best rate a new age wide body can go. Not only has it ramped up the build rate it has reigned in the flying squawks like a bug light during moth season. The importance of February-May 2014 time sequence can not be over looked. Today's Blog is dedicated to the arrival of JAL to Vancouver run as a new beginning for this juggernaut. Engineering is perfected during these next few months.


The arrival of this airplane steps up the footprint. Not only is the orient embracing this arrival today so is the aviation world as a whole. Why? It represent the Boeing surge forward towards its future. The dedicated effort is in place. If all continues as planned, the 787 will reach significant milestones in market presence. Market presence is critical for future orders in 2015. Once the 787 has reached not just a certain market share but a significant world footprint, customers will expect its ticket pricing, customer technologies and comfort. These items are becoming the new expectation in travel. How quickly Boeing moves forward with the 787 will indicate how far the 787 will take the future market. The 787 puzzle of problems will disappear leaving the 787 alone as the most advanced aircraft of its age. Airbus will not have solved the problem as it languishes in older ideas and applications.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner from Japan makes first landing at Vancouver's airport

Ground Hog Day Boeing Blog

It’s time to roll out the stew with potato beef and carrots. The traditional meal also calls for Corn Bread Honey and butter. That's what you do on Ground Hog Day in the USA.

I will make a six week forecast after I finish off another bowl of stew. Boeing's forecast is as follows:

Customers start reporting back that its business plans are genius because they are making money on airworthy 787's. China Southern opens New Zealand, and New Zealand anxiously awaits its own 787-9. In fact the prediction is that the 787 was really built for New Zealand. That is how genius Boeing customers are with its 787 in that part of the world. Norwegian Air finally solves its problems by spring break, hauling countless Norsemen to the Caribbean Islands for some R&R.  Problems? No problem as Boeing efforts out, a calming campaign, for glacial intrigue for the summer.

The global foot print is changing at a steady march on travel with the 787. If Boeing establishes a glitch free next six weeks then new orders will continue in September with another 100 or so orders by that time.  The winter of Customer discontent is drawing to a close. Boeing's audit plan by the FAA is highly orchestrated at all its factories on a fact finding binge of FAA compliance. 

Boeing executives are pondering all its production woes and the continued flying hiccups. They have placed a task force for each category of problem. By the fourth of July those task forces will have arms around each occurrence found in the 787 from the factory floor to the customer’s hanger. Air India can stop selling its Airplanes and leasing back those same aircraft. The Indian Government will conduct audits to induct aircraft. 

The Boeing footprint grows bigger by another fifty 787's. Those customers who receive the 787, continue to load those wide bodies with people and fly them around the world. As the side-liners complain about the 787 remaining late by three + years. The ground hog says wait six weeks and the 787 will have a revival time or rebirth of interest as Boeing proceeds to execute as they promised. That execution of a plan is a skill and is what Boeing does best. It executes a plan well. Boeing has resources dedicated to make bad things go away in a hurry. Each airline model, from the beginning of time (all models), has had a pause. From the 747 until now each model has had its moment of whoa! Even the 737 had a moment or two to short out some flying anomalies.

Now during this Ground Hog Day salute while it celebrates Boeing's winter of discontent closing in six weeks. Great things will happen that no one predicted because they are hooked on the "late" bi-line for all intelligent reports. The trick now is pulling off an airplane that is 20 years ahead of the Airbus' A-350. 

The 787 is still positioned to be that airplane. Customers who blink, like JAL, may find in the long run, they chose unwisely. The stakes are high. The 777 went through a refinement in service time and now 20 years later people clamor for the 777-300ER. The 777 has matured right before customers eyes. Just like an ugly awkward child grows up and becomes a beauty queen at age 20 right before the parents.  Boeing is quietly applying resources in numbers to various programs that were identified as problematic. This quiet strategy will once again emerge as a winner. Smart customers know this, impatient customers knee jerk around, and lost customers haven't got a clue.

In six weeks the battery issue is over as well as software problems. The reoccurring India syndrome will be solved. Every customer has its own teething problems with a new aircraft. Those will retire one by one, as its maintenance teams become more proficient in handling this new technology. . When Boeing delivers its 200th 787, then the wise commentators will speak! "I knew this a great airplane". Before next Ground Hog Day there will be close to 250 787 flying. It will also be the time to compare the Airbus effort in the A-350 group.

2014 Goals And Objectives Boeing To Do List (End of Year Update)

The month of 2014 has punched the clock for clearing the deck from 2013. 648 aircraft were delivered and Boeing talks of going north of 700 delivered aircraft during this current year. They have not provided the first Months numbers for 2014 but will do so next week. A bench mark is delivering any 787 at all in January. They have delivered 4 and several more customer deliveries will be booked for January. February is lining up as a robust 787 delivery month. Without having any deliveries in 2013 for the 787 during the first three months. Boeing may gain a forty 787 advantaged from January through April over 2013.   Boeing proclaims it will exceed 115 787 deliveries in 2014. Possible, but we get to watch just the same.

The 737 is almost a lock on delivering 42 737 a month. Counting a lead time of increased productivity it will do well in sending out to customers close to 500 737's.

Whatever slack from that number for the 737, will be back filled with a high number of 777 going forward. In Boeing's greatest aspiration, is to produce 100 777's.

The 747 Frieghter and passenger is slumping in 2014 and has only a couple more years contributing to the revenue line on the balance sheet. The 747 production may come in at 18.

As feeble as the 767 order book, Boeing is counting on the military contract to make up the slack in a couple of years with its order of 188 767 tankers, becoming ladies in waiting. Basically Boeing needs to Identify a 767 a special commercial application for its 767 during the next few years. It should produce a low cost 767 with enhancements for specialized charter operations.  Adding 787 commonalities on the flight deck. Enhanced wing performance and new engine technology could give the 767 a new niche. A cost of operation and low sales price may breathe new life into a niche equipment market, otherwise its a freighter and secondary market hauler of people in less than prime markets. However, the bottom line is that the 767 is limping along until the military stuff starts. I don't know how Boeing will count that military delivery in respect to commercial output.

End of 2014 there will be a dozen commercial 767 delivered. Below is the score card for Boeing:

Boeing Goals and To Do List: Updated June 9,2015

Winging it Forecast    2014 Boeing results 12 months later

737- 480                           485

767-   12                              6

747-   18                             19 

777- 100                             99

787- 115                           114

Totals: 700 units              723 Actual

It may come in somewhat higher, but I am a bit conservative with benchmarks like this 700 number.

Boeing is counting on the new 787 groove it has found, hoping it will do well, and the 737 is being mailed in as we speak. The 777 is also dialed in for production. Boeing must contend with customers unable to take delivery, because financing and market adjustments. This could impede that number during certain times of the year. The risk of a 787 pause is high if another battery smokes. The 737 could run out of parts unless that is already in the bag for 2014. Anyway the sales progression is totally disassociated from delivery production in 2014. The backlog is too big. Sales must find ways of selling languishing models like the 747 and 767. Boeing stock would surge from unexpected sales for the two models, as it would pleasantly keep production sharp. Eventually, the models will have to retire. Even the A380 will retire before it is profitable.

This outlook is a thumb nail sketch of Boeing's cash register for 2014. Enjoy the WAG and use it for talking points, if you are a sixty second manager or managing by walking by expert.

What's Up With Those Rascally Machinist At Boeing?

Well labor has made a point behind closed doors and its not the closed doors in Everett, Wa. It is those doors in Charleston, SC. The non union workforce is toiling mightily with 787 production. Whether it's a problem of floor leadership, lack of experience or an under utilized work resource, the IAM in Everett is thanking Charleston at this time for developing a respect from Boeing, for those rascally IAM machinist.  I once was being  trained as a machinist in the Seattle area in a Walter Mitty type fashion at the Evergreen CC. My goal was to become a Boeing Machinist. I enjoyed the training and the work. The education was directly tied to making parts and solving problems in the metals arena. Even with the plastic plane you need great machinist.

My life's calling took me to another stage into an Management type of venue, for medical care then onto Governmental auditing and management.  Both somehow made a relationship with building stuff and solving problems. So I quit Evergreen CC and got my degree in accounting and finance at a great University.

Boeing sees harmony, Machinists disagree in aftermath of contract vote 

Back to machinist, making great stuff, is the best thing a person can do for anyone, so machinist, I solute you! Now, because of Charleston, SC experience, the IAM union has made points with Boeing. McNerney has approach the NW with a reconsideration towards the IAM folks. Smart business for both, the IAM and Boeing. Don't lose your best company IAM, Boeing don't lose your best doers, the IAM.

They desperately need each other to build the 777X. This is not real estate clambering for location, location and more location. Its war with the competitors. Boeing needs its best for the best, No more Ideas of cost trimming on the backs of an untrained or trained workforce. Boeing can't gamble with boardroom snarkiness.

Opinion, is what I do, because that is what you get from a lifetime of running from actual volcanoes exploding, revolutionaries, and political intrigue. Mexico is another story as well as my Mount Saint Helens camp out on May, 18 1980, And so goes the more flaws doings things with the federal government, during my time with the US Department of the Interior. Mexico was safer than Interior, I knew who the bad guys were even though shots are fired often in Mexico. I have seen a fair piece of the "behind shut doors stuff".  The IAM is in a good position to deliver its promise. Boeing is in a good place to keep its hand clasped with that partnership. I am really glad the IAM did not jump off the "Cliff" and I am glad Boeing is smart enough to put pride aside and build airplanes in Everett again with the 777X project. Having said all these remarks, places making future Boeing observations into context. Boeing pretends to work for the stock holders and pretends to accommodate labor. They, in the middle, must satisfy both masters at the same time while building aircraft. Of course the third pillar will always be Government, a place where I once experienced it with great trepidation. Being a Boeing exec is like being an NFL superstar, your only get paid when you play. If your knees don't buckle and need surgery you play on.

The machinist in Everett are discovering its true value in the market place. Its value is better realized as Airbus builds and sells more airplanes.

Boeing's FAA Audit, Its A Plan B

Since I was a Governmental Auditor and Audit Supervisor for a near 20 years, and they always say write about what you know. I will do just that, write about this impending Boeing/FAA audit at Charleston. Please note that Boeing has a plethora of problems ongoing at Charleston. It is "rumored that mid stage of the assembly process is a disaster. It is also rumored that assembly staff are not able to get its arms around the 787 in a sufficient manner. Even though they can eventually produce a 787 at the end of the day or year, they have much to account for in that assembly process.  The FAA is going in as if it were shooting fish in the barrel and then reporting they killed its limit.

FAA to begin regular audit of Boeing plants:  Herald Net

Performance Audit Chapter 1:

Here is my take on this seven day audit? Seven days, are you kidding me, or what? 80 Auditors all dressed in, well, auditor garb.  Seven days to collect the facts from testing processes and systems and documentation that Boeing produces 787's. Seven days to interact with executives, 300 or more extras hired to assist the auditors from Boeing personnel. Egad, this sounds like a performance audit that targets a few areas under suspicion for problematic reporting, and aviation compliance. The FAA knows what it wants, and they have brought in the swat team of auditors and are kicking the doors down in Charleston, SC. 

Boeing please spin it as you will, but the FAA knows the answer before they ask the questions. The audit tests they are conducting are just validation of what they believe are happening on the factory floor. Even though Boeing is producing presumably safe 787's, they want to mop up the floor of those Boeing Keystone Cops blowing the whistles on the floor.  Because great assembly units are colliding in the factory and misplaced tools are ending up in the wrong sections of the factory, the FAA wants to know how a respected organization as Boeing, organizes the factory in this slapstick comedy of errors, before a 787 test flies around Charleston, SC.

The FAA senses, or more importantly fears that Boeing has trouble in Charleston where Boeing is getting this thing put together in a concise fashion. This audit is to prove and validate the building process and the voracity of Boeing's documents. With 80 auditors, seven days and 300 new Boeing audit specific employees, I sense trouble in the findings and recommendations.  Boeing has looked up the words "we concur" in the Boeing business thesaurus and do not like that suggested meaning.  It’s tantamount to falling on the sward and saying "we bad", sorry.

Audit test come in a variety of forms all seeking if a condition may be true or false. The audit team already have test constructed from pre audit information that suggest a problematic and common occurrence. Failures are hoped to be found and reported in findings validated per pre audit plan. Example:... it takes double the time to place a 787 on the flight line than what it does in Everett. That means something smells in Denmark and the audit team will find that answer somewhere in the competency level of the work process. A "we concur" answer comes on the audit response, means somebody gets fired at Boeing. Who, it is depends how long the audit footnotes are.

Findings:

If it’s a twenty word finding, against Boeing no one gets fired but remedial action is taken. If it’s a one page finding with an addendum, charts, and grafts or additional examples supporting the finding somebody gets fired.  Maybe a vice president change is coming in Charleston. A sacrifice, if you will to the FAA God’s.

Recommendations:

Or better stated as reprimands from the FAA, are the necessary statements leading to the "we concur" (where in Boeing's case it had not supplied to date).  The FAA recommends: "that Boeing get its act together in Charleston and fire the keystone cops as starters". Ahum, "We Concur".

Audit Response written by the Boeing legal team:

A ceremonial falling on the sward event kept in private. "After review of FAA Findings and Recommendations, Boeing has completed items 1-12 and installed a systematic process preventing error events from never happening again. These safeguards, guarantee that all instances cited by the audit findings, summarized in its recommendation will adhere to a strict compliance of the audit recommendation, and have already installed recommendations in the production environment addressing every finding."

Say what, never mind, it just works trust me?

The FAA will respond by: 'We will follow-up with another audit on a periodic basis insuring Boeing means what is says and says what it means audit format." Otherwise, known as a compliance audit.

Audits always pass in time, I know, I'm retired.

Boeing Goals 10 787 A Month Coming Out Of The Factory I Say The Real Number is 8

What is proposed is taking a broader analysis for the ten that goes out the door just to sit on the flight line until delivered. Delivery is where the cash is transacted. Delivery means all work and testing are done.  In order to get a true number of 10 a month it would be better to toe the line at the delivery point rather than how long it took to assemble in the factory. Boeing should develop a 90 day moving average number which captures the true productivity until the actual delivery date, rather than cutting short of that number by counting what comes out the factory door at the end of the month. That number does not include all the shenanigans issues when sitting out doors  How does this moving average number work? It works by thinking about real events that actually impede or advance the progress towards the day Boeing would receive money or deliver the aircraft. Boeing's true target is delivering ten 787's every month to customers. To get there they analyze progress using a 90 day moving average of actual deliveries.

In order to explain this concept it is better to understand the back log. There are three basic categories that need inclusion in the inventory analysis. I don't care if 10 airplanes a month are moved out the door more or less. Nobody has been paid yet.

Consideration 1:

Boeing had 40 or more aircraft sit outside for several years from the three - five a month rate. All had or  has to go through the EMC (change incorporation center) before delivery. Therefore, those aircraft built at five month had acquired an immense sit time with no payment with more money poured into the hull of each aircraft over time. Appropriately, these should not be counted as a true monthly production number during that time.

Consideration 2:

Aircraft coming out the big aircraft doors sit on the ground during systems checks, upgrades and receiving corrections before test flown. They may sit on the flight line for up to 60 days before being worthy of delivery.

Consideration 3:

Customers are not ready for delivery, even if aircraft are certified for delivery. A customer may have money issues, training issues remaining unresolved, or just not ready to task the 787, so the airplane just sits for up to 30 days after test flights have been completed.

Boeing can build 10 a month and fill its parking lots with aircraft, but the job is not complete until it delivers. Therefore, the 90 day moving average takes all three major categories into consideration as part of meeting a 10 per month production goal.

Here is how a more accurate reflection is constructed. Count the raw deliveries each month. Average on a 3 month moving number, using the current month delivery number  and adding two prior months, providing an  average count based on deliveries not the actual productions coming out the door. Those out the door aircraft are not finished yet until delivered. This method asborbs all the anomalies of production and delivery.

If January had 8 delivered, it included all the above conditions even though production moved 12 out the factory door. In February, some of those january 12 are delivered after passing testing, and a few of those twelve remain in February inventory, because those "ready" made it through all the post assembly stop points, and finally, where customers who are ready to take it on for delivery, 9 787's sitting in a completion stage, were delivered because the customers were ready. So count February as 9.

Finally, March comes.  10 units go through the factory door and 12 are delivered from the standing inventory.  Add 8 + 9 +  12= 29 is divided by 3 (months 90 days) resulting 9.67 unit completion from a moving average for March. This accounts for all the bumps and jumps during that 90 day period. Making a moving average for April is simple. If April delivers 11 787 then the production moving average would include February for 9, March for 12 and April for 11.  The moving average for April is formulated as such  (9+12+11= 32)/3 for a moving average  production level for April of 10.6. Taking in the 3 considerations into account and averaging over a period of time smooths out the lumpy monthly performances in production and testing. It then matches that true output with customers delivery schedule by assigning a financial value on that output which is a handy number for stock-holders.

Later I will provide actual numbers for 2014 and demonstrate how this moving average calculation removes the clutter and confusion from those watching the production floor to the financial floor of the stock market over a year.

Is The 787 Die Set?

Boeing is making a move by bringing hundreds more workers into its Charleston factory. The local press reports, "it maybe a result of removing all impediments from the manufacturing process and catch up productivity in advance of the 787-9 factory debut". A partially true observation.

Post and Currier Link

The Post and Courier reports the following:

"Boeing Co. is adding more contractors at its North Charleston 787 assembly plant, acknowledging unspecified "challenges" as it prepares to make a new, longer version of the Dreamliner.

The aerospace giant issued a statement Wednesday after The Wall Street Journal reported that the plant could hire as many as 1,000 temporary workers in South Carolina to speed up the completion of the mid-body fuselage sections that are outfitted at the local factory.

Boeing's statement did not address any production issues and didn't elaborate about how many contractors it might hire.

"The 787 production system is ramping up to historically high rates for a wide-body program and introducing a second family member, the 787-9," the company said. "It's not unexpected that this would cause a temporary surge in work."

A view can also be taken, that its not a production solution to add up to a thousand new workers, however the die has been finally set for the 787 program, and all hands on are called on deck. Boeing has a supplier parts validation problem, glitching the the 787. Fuel valves that fail and software under preforming are part of the culprits affecting the Dreamliner. Not a failure of the factory floor!

The production die is set, so bring on the troops in Charleston, and get them into production with training on its now frozen assembly method. The days of trial and error or tweaking on the floor is done. The re-engineering phase is also frozen. It time that the supplier effort achieves a standard of non failure in its parts. The new hires in Charleston emphazises Boeing change management is complete. No more broken parts or substandard applications. Boeing will be attacking those glitches to the source, found in its suspect supply chain. They need bunches of production troops for upping production significantly in Charleston and Everret to 10 a month.

The Boeing two pronged attack is focused on production levels, and the rapid response to all in-service failures. Fuel leaks, program errors and any other mishap is the other prong for the manufacturing attack. Reliability teams are in in attack mode. The production muster will address one phase, and the strict adherence of its suppliers will address the other, reliability. Norwegian Air, Japan Airlines and Air India has had its time in the barrel of the gun and this too will come to a close soon as problems put to bed. Always improving is not a statement not for always reinventing the 787 design. 

The up scaling of workforce in Charleston is a signal shot that the 787 is ready with its teething issues and growing pains. It is the lock and load command it has been waiting for these last three years. The battery problem is an isolated problem which will continue to haunt Boeing in the shadows as a creepy problem. Boeing has that monster in a containment box. The battery issue has been sent to the lab until further notice. The 787 flies safely with or without a battery. When the 787 is on the ground, its under its upmost battery workload. Making the battery  vulnerable. In the air, flying with its battery lock box is like life vests on a cruise ship. No battery no problem, because its in its cage and can fly without it.

Production enhancement is addressed by the latest hiring announcement, as well as the implication, that its time to bring in additional workers. Because Boeing is ready and has set its set production die, therefore it needs people for when all three 787 types are in the production play, making 10 a month.

40 Here 50 There, Pretty Soon Its A Full January Order Book for Boeings 737/Max/NG`s

Boeing just confirmed 40 from a "GECAS" order, then another 50 more are coming from Etihad (spin-off financing) for an airline, Jet Airways of India.

"India’s Jet Airways could be set to place an order for 50 Boeing 737s raising speculation that Etihad might be behind the deals."

Etihad Press Reference for 50 737 to Jet Airways in India

The Jet Airways deal is not complete from the sponsorship of Etihad, for 50 737, which would buttress the SE Asia market for an India Airline. I recognize this is a lot of stuff for the comprehension of the 737-NEO market battle, but it comes just after 2013 closes, and immediatly appears in the first weeks of 2014. Boeing is hot on the trail and closing the NEO gap over the 737. The customers are liking what is demonstrated by the Max and are using the NG as a Bridge to that future. The NG will continue to out preform the current A320 in service and Boeing will deliver the Max with greater performance than the Neo in the near future. Boeing is shadow boxing Airbus with the 737 and beginning to win orders in the later rounds.

Gecas has 40 737 for $4 billion Link

The 40 for Gecas is for 20 NG-8 and 20 Max-8

Boeing, GECAS announce order for 40 737s

CONTRACT MANUFACTURING, INDUSTRY NEWS, JET ENGINES

GE's commercial aircraft leasing and financing unit confirmed as purchaser.

Boeing and GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), the commercial aircraft leasing and financing arm of General Electric, confirmed an order valued at $3.9 billion at list prices consists of 20 737 MAX 8s and 20 Next-Generation 737-800s. The order, booked in 2013, was previously attributed to an unidentified customer on Boeing’s Orders and Deliveries website.

"We ordered more 737 MAX 8s and Next-Generation 737-800s because demand continues to grow as our airline customers require more fuel-efficient aircraft to compete in the marketplace," said Norman C.T. Liu, president and chief executive officer, GECAS. "This order further strengthens the large GECAS order book."

The follow-on order increases the GECAS order book for the 737 MAX to 95 airplanes and the Next-Generation 737 to 387 airplanes, the most for both models by any company in the leasing industry.

"GECAS is an industry leader and this follow-on order reinforces the value of the Next-Generation 737 and 737 MAX in the leasing market," said John Wojick, senior vice president of Global Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The 737 MAX will provide GECAS's airline customers with the best-in-class operating efficiencies and passenger amenities."

This should clear up the Boeing order book for end of January for 2014. A total of 90 more 737's are in play,  adding to the already 10 737's booked in January from Boeing's orders and delivery website. A tidy 100 in January is what I'm talking about!

The 787 Battery Problem Just Got Smaller

What we now know, is that the fire containment and and ventilation processes protect the 787. We also know that a battery melt down still remains a problem. So what Boeing learned since this last incident with Japan Airlines.  Several things, the battery melted down with voltage controls in place. If the voltage controls worked as expected then it points to the battery core and construction itself. The battery was fully protected from every possible battery failure problem known at the time, except itself.  Boeing is now looking at battery x-rays for the determination of inherent flaws.  Boeing's robust treatment of battery habitat has narrowed the battery flaw to internals that pass by into Japan Airline 787 operations and onto the maintenance segment.

That can be said about the battery from an outside looking perspective.  The battery has a problem and it starts within the battery under limited influence from the airplane itself. Voltage regulation keeps the battery's electrical inputs constant and protected from electrical surges and anomalies, thus not damaging the battery core. Electrical out flows are regulated and do not require a tasking battery surge for keeping up with instantaneous equipment start-ups. The battery is protected after the fact of battery damage and thermal runaway.  Additional damage is stopped under operation once its starts smoking. The problem is isolated and contained.

So if all the battery protection works and contains thermal runaway it leaves a very big target on those factory x-rays on the battery before it leaves  for Boeing.  An airline gets a crack in its windshield. It gets replaced. An easy solution preventing windsield implosion during flight.  A battery has a crack at the molecular level no one cares until the battery containment system is called upon. Boeing will now have an easier time of identifying what is the causal problem of the battery.

Find a battery on the loading dock side of the battery factory with those cracks in its storage substrate, and test the battery until it breaks. Then you may find the causal problem for JAL's resting aircraft.  Multiple short flight cycles may stress the battery performance with multiple landings and take-offs each day, then followed by a long route. These are questions that may make JAL operations unique.  What happens to the battery exposure during a variety of operations and then rest? Are those battery "cracks" exposed and made over wrought with continuos service and then a runaway breakouts while at rest?

What is queried here there are now more questions, and less answers than before. Boeing, can possibly save the day on this venture, by getting its arms around the cause not the treatment. The treatment does not stop a battery  runaway from starting, it just stops it like a Herpes virus. A bad virus still starts up in the containment area. Boeing needs a cure for that battery design and its assumptions. I hope that x-rays finds the culprit even at the molecular level. It makes the problem a lot smaller.

It's Time For The Litium Ion to Take Its Place On The Shelve

Boeing can no longer dilly dally on the Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) in the 787. As much promise  as the LIB gave the 787 over older battery design its impairment of melt down is bringing the whole 787 down on the ground. The advantage and more robust and lighter weight battery is out weight by the protective implementation of the safety measures Boeing has taken in making it safe but has not stopped the failure.

That failure alone is killing the dream and Boeing will have to swallow its pride and go to a heavier option that is available. The whole model is at risk from a temperamental problems that Boeing cannot not resolve even though precautions taken keep it safe in its containment box. A heavier battery system that will not behave like the LIB is needed . I believe Boeing is quickly reaching a transfer to that system and is writing a plan to retro fit its customers aircraft after testing of the new non LIB system.  A defeat for Boeing but not loosing the airplane war is more important, Until Boeing or its battery subcontractor can isolate the LIB flaw they should not propagate the installation until a solution is found. It is not know what causes the problem which is more important to Boeing to know while selling more 787. The risk is not retired. Until Boeing retires the the causal risk then it go to plan B.

A weight gain by a plan B battery system can be made up in added empty weight by that heavier system, by trimming more unnecessary weight out of the aircraft as it can.

Boeing has been working the plan B for some time and has nursed the LIB problem along for over a year.  It would interesting to note if plan B has already tested  on LN005 or 006 by now. That would be a major clue if those aircraft have flown with another type of battery pack.

If Boeing takes on new weight for a new solution, some of that weight could be countered by canceled, by eliminating the containment case no longer needed on an alternative battery. As far as the robust energy provided by the LIB, a plan B battery will need innovative power management for its replacement in order to keep up with the LIB promised performance. A set back, yes but not a game changer. Boeing really needs to address unfinished business by determining what causes the failure of the LIB battery under operation. They should also make sure they could change out the Battery Kit in a 787 with some straight forward inter changeability for the LIB and the plan B Battery both back and forth as a solution could be found within the LIB  and airlines could go back to the LIB  once root cause is found.  A big task, yes. But no more so than hundreds of other new technologies innovated on the Dream liner. A change out is needed for coming forward and backward as the 787 switches to various base systems from the batteries.

I am sure Boeing has reviewed every regretable plan to deal with this irepressable LIB and now needs to put that problem to bed until it is resolved. Boeing can no longer suffer further hang-ups with this feature. I don't know how a plan B battery would affect the all electric 787 systems.