Post 787 Design Era

The 787 entered a brave new world in the aviation saga from Wright Brothers to the new 777X types, AKA 777-8 and 777-9.  What sticks out is two different configurations much like the auto industry conundrum of building a Tesla all electric or a Honda Hybrid. The 777X class has all plastic flight surfaces including its massive wings. There are some disadvantage's still remaining on the table for all plastic airplanes. The 737 is  too small at this time for plastic and the 747 and 777X is too big for all plastic skins, using barrel configurations.  The A350 uses panel with added weight found in its under lying support structure just because it uses more fasteners and ribbing for attaching panels while maintain structural integrity. It gains ground through plastic skin over aluminum skin.

Boeing does not want to go small with an all plastic post Max aircraft in 15 years since they have stated the cost in doing an all plastic 737 would not make the aircraft cost feasible for its gain in efficiency, they chose tricking out the 737 with all the internal advances, engine evolution, and aero design. This makes the MAX more relevant than the NEO. The Neo could have gone plastic panel version but didn't since the A350 has not reached the market place at this time.. That would be a big risk as demonstrated by Boeing's 787.

The Marines had it down over Seventy Years Ago with the Corsair. Now Boeing waves its Corsair over Dubai with A Patent on this 70 year old feature


However, Boeing is rapidly closing off its proof of concept glitching while in service. The overly complex 787 will live up to its over the top promise in two more years of service where a whole new genre of aircraft reaches that dream. The A350 falls short as does the Max and 777X types because they laid up short to make a chip shot on the design board. What is really intriguing is Boeing's hybrid approx for the MAX, the 747-8i and finally the 777X. The 747 did what it could with designed flight surfaces including the body by working in aluminum. Then went with a new engine performance package for power and fuel burn economy. A common theme ran throughout the aircraft matching the 787 in seating appointments and electronics. It added the feel of flying with 787 like commonalities. It uses computer like precision on optimizing the aircraft. Mission was accomplished with a beautiful new aircraft.

What to with the Max? All plastic is out because it does not give the performance return  for the investment cost of developing an all plastic single aisle aircraft. So Boeing said, let's do a 747 number on the Max. New engine performance, new engine placement on the wing and much more design work on the aluminum frame would make this aircraft fly like a 787, as much as possible giving it a remarkable efficiency improvement during operation, even down to the maintenance cost. Boeing improves it like it was 787 without the plastic body and wings. Its competitor went NEO on its metal frame and Boeing Maxed the 737 frame and its newly created performance. The 737 became a safe buy for its customers with a strong yield of improvements, flying like a 787 for crew and passengers without those windows.

This brings us to a grand finale of patch work advances placed on the 777 frame coming directly from the 787 play book. Boeing gleaned through the very best of 787 and placed it on the 777. Then they reviewed the best of the 777 and kept it. Yes they went with a slightly bigger window but not in the 787 class. They decided that all plastic body was another 8 years in the making and "went with what they do best". The engine guys are on a hot streak and Boeing implored "give us more fuel efficient heat"! So goes the 777 call out for those 787 wings that are so beautiful, and they fly as the best in the world. Boeing wants two of those for every aircraft. Boeing will go Swiss Army knife on those wings, so we can pass airport security by docking it in a 787 spot at the airport. We want the 787 wing to fold up in a pinch. "Corsair Cool, Huh" So goes the "List" and checking it twice before going on a road trip to Dubai. Boeing just got a Black Friday like order book in Dubai as the aviation world marveled at the response. Even some Sheiks were impressed as its county's leaders stepped up to the camera and beamed with pride. Boeing final guessed right with the help of its customers. "Build something we want", is the battle cry, and Boeing gave up delusion of grandeur with the 777 and came out with a marvel that will change the world more than the A380 or an A350. The 777 is rapidly becoming the Best of series or show for its customers.

• Plastic wings and wing box 787 era
• Plastic control surfaces  787 era
• 777 favorite things added from prior generation
• New technology Aluminum body, evolved and matured
• The GE engine advancements from 787 era
• 787 era commonalities, flies like a 787, flight bags. maintenance checks etc.

The favorite things category moves forward with confidence. The Mid Eastern delegation has stated, "no 787 like problems at launch". Boeing blinked, and said "okay, we can do that" So goes giving what customers want not what Boeing dreams up. The MAX, 777 and 747 is following the Airbus line of attack  of having no show stoppers during developement. Boeing is stealing from the Airbus play book as well.

The 787 will be a corner stone of everything possible as it tweaks out the 787 aircraft over the next two years, with the 787-9 and 787-10 in the tooling. Developmental risk becomes a chapter in Business school book, "Production Management 301". When the 787 problems go to text books then the 787 is etched in stone and can become that proven method for building airplanes in the future. Right now only the wings become the best of the best, and will show up sometime into the future on a Max or 747 (if in demand)and 777's. The engine advance can attach to any wing and  the electric storm remains a 787 electrical storm, until a "solid" solution updates the system as a whole. The 787 will fly safely in the meantime giving the dream a full workout to perfection. Just like the early internal combustion engines from the past have become something great in 2013 with its hybrid counterparts. 

A LiftnDrag Thanksgiving Metaphor Shoping List

Thanks For Giving Menu:

   Cranberry Sauce            => JAL to Airbus hand off.

   Mashed Potatoes/Gravy  => 737 MAX Orders 2013

   Green Beans                  => Eco friendly 787 makes impact at the dinner table

   Brussels sprouts             => Lufthansa signing up for 34 new vastly improved 777X

   Squash                          => JetStar’s 335 seats on a 787-8, it has a no gas section!

   Stuffing                         => Norwegian Stove Top Addition with 291 seats on a 787-8

   The Turkey!                   => Battery and glitches included with this bird. Tested +.

   Pumpkin Pie                  => 787 luggage Bins create space for more carry-on charges.

   Ice cream                      => 747-8i sugar sinker, 5 net orders avoids Boeing's nap

   Post Thanks For Giving=> Cathy Pacific comes to the Boeing Black Friday Sale 777X

   Sparkling Apple Cider     => Union loses its grip with NW apples supply.

   Fruit Cup                       => Board of Directors avoid an after diner market slump.

   Guest Pocketing Rolls     => A traditional event for LOI and option activities at Dubai.

   Happy Thanks For Giving everyone. I've enjoyed 2013 immensely in spite of Boeing's attempts of botching it up.

Boeing Bragging Points From Dubai

The Boeing press release found on its own web site expresses optimism, confidence, and pride for the 777X launch. It has expressed this in its latest release of information.

Boeing 777X to Deliver Unprecedented Efficiency and Economics

Boeing 777X to Deliver Unprecedented Efficiency and Economics

"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Nov. 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE:BA], one day after announcing the record-breaking launch of the 777X, today at the Dubai Airshow outlined the performance characteristics and a variety of features that will make the newest member of the Boeing twin-aisle family the largest and most fuel-efficient twin-engine commercial jetliner in aviation history.

Key innovations will make the 777X 12 percent more fuel efficient than its competitor:  an all-new composite wing based on the innovative wing developed for the super-efficient 787 Dreamliner, aerodynamic advances such as a hybrid laminar flow control vertical tail and natural laminar flow nacelles, and all-new GE9X engines developed by GE Aviation.

In addition to unprecedented fuel efficiency and environmental responsibility, these new technologies will help the 777X deliver 10 percent lower operating economics than the competition.

"The 777X builds on the heritage of the 777-300ER and incorporates many advanced technologies designed for the 787 to create a new standard for widebody airplanes. It will truly be a worthy successor to the 777-300ER," said Fancher.

The 777X's efficiency directly links to exceptional environmental performance. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is produced as fuel is consumed. This means the reductions in fuel use will result in equivalent cuts in carbon dioxide emissions.

Two models comprise the 777X family – the 777-8X, with approximately 350 seats and a range capability of more than 9,300 nautical miles; and the 777-9X, with approximately 400 seats and a range of more than 8,200 nautical miles. The 777-8X competes directly with the Airbus A350-1000 while the 777-9X is in a class by itself, serving a market segment that no other airplane can.

"Both of these airplanes are about providing growth options and flexibility for our customers," Fancher said. "The 777-9X fits in the heart of where we think the market will go."

At 233 feet, the 777X composite wing has a longer span than today's 777-300ER. Its folding, raked wingtip delivers greater efficiency, significant fuel savings and complete airport gate capability. In addition, it allows access to the entire range of gates currently accessibly by the 777-300ER.

Adding 787 technologies in the flight deck, flight controls and other systems is just the beginning. The 777X implements 787 technologies where they add value to our customers and increase commonality across Boeing's twin-aisle product family.

Boeing is exploring a number of innovations that will advance the passenger experience and create an interior passengers will prefer. For instance, the company will reposition and resize the windows to provide more ambient light inside and provide passengers with better views outside the cabin. A new interior architecture will make the 777X cabin even more spacious, leveraging the airplane's cross-section – the widest in its class.

The 777X is targeted for first delivery in 2020.

Contact:
Scott Lefeber (Dubai)
777X Communications
+1 425-213-9445
scott.s.lefeber@boeing.com

Doug Alder (Seattle)
Media Relations
+1 206-544-1814
doug.alder-jr@boeing.com

More information: www.newairplane.com/777X  

SOURCE Boeing

So here it is:

Remember when Boeing said in its earlier press release for the Boeing 787 that would shatter fuel improvements by 15% with the 787. Then came the launch process with a multi-level design onslaught from engine makers to wing makers. As well as a weight loss interdependent. Remember when Boeing said in its earlier press release for the Boeing 787 that would shatter fuel improvements by 15% with the 787. Then came the launch process with a multi-level design onslaught from engine makers to wing makers. As well as a weight loss superintendents managing the carry-off of structural design enhancements. This above mention snip-it of "12% percent improvement is common denominator of an "all hands on deck" approach to fitting out a new design. The 12% claim is a bottom number, not the top number. They have computer modeled the 12% performance number and should exceed that number in an Actual After modeling performance generator, during tests flight of up to 15% over the competition similar aircraft. What will happen is that the 777-8 through 9 will have the upcoming physical changes on...

GE engine updates in testing and in flight. The PIPs move forward.
Building test frames will have a weight demolition activity CRFP wing design optimized from 787 dynamics to 777-8 dynamics Engine placement articulated to sweet spot on wing. Lessons learned on body design (shape) transfers from 787 to 777. 787 like enhancements. When its all complete and ready to go to customer, it will be more like a 15% improvement over the 777-200 or 300 as compared with the new 777-9. The -8 eight will be a phoenominal 350 passenger bus killer. Compared with the 787-10, it will go farther than the dash10 with more passengers. The 787-10 is a high tech gap filler, that will please a niche of routes for both Boeing and its customers. The 777-8 or 777-9  will move more like a cruise ship the a 17 INCH SEAT Bus ride. Dubai (et al) loved what they saw and saw what they loved! Airbus is all in with the 1000 and will double down with loyal minion.

Congratulations , Boeing for executing a plan, even it has had a rough year in 2013 with the 787. Now the table is set for the world.

This above mention snip-it of "12% percent improvement is common denominator of an "all hands on deck" approach to fitting out a new design.  The 12% claim is a bottom number, not the top number. They have computer modeled the 12% performance number and should exceed that number in an Actual After modeling performance generator, during tests flight of up to 15% over the competition similar aircraft. What will happen is that the 777-8 through 9 will have the upcoming physical changes on.

GE engine updates in testing and in flight. The PIPs move forward. Building test frames will have a weight demolition activity CRFP wing design optimized from 787 dynamics to 777-8 dynamics Engine placement articulated to sweet spot on wing.
Lessons learned on body design (shape) transfers from 787 to 777 with 787 like enhancements.

When its all complete and ready to go to customer, it will be more like a 15% improvement over the 777-200 or 300 as compared with the new 777-9. The -8 eight will be a phenomenal 350 passenger bus killer. Compared with the 787-10, it will go farther than the dash10 with more passengers. The 787-10 is a high tech gap filler, that will please a niche of routes for both Boeing and its customers. The 777-8 or 777-9  will move more like a cruise ship the a 17 INCH SEAT Bus ride. Dubai (et-al) loved what they saw and saw what they loved! Airbus is all in with the 1000 and will double down with loyal minion.

Congratulations , Boeing for executing a plan, even it has had a rough year in 2013 with the 787. Now the table is set for the world.

Day 1 Dubai "Book em Dano"

Day 1 Dubai:

Hawaii 5-O Theme Song

Randy's Journal From Dubai

Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney (third from left) presents a 777X model in Emirates livery to His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of Emirates Airline. To McNerney’s left is His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of Dubai. At far right is Akbar Al Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways.

Commercial Passenger Approximate Orders:

                   737    787-10    777-8   777-9           [Foot Notes]
Etihad                      30            8+1F** 17           [12 opt 787-10:[12 777's]:[2 777F]
Emirates                               35        115 [50 opt 777x's]
Qatar                                                   [50 777-9's LOI]
Flydubai    111                                                  [54 LOI 777x] *** Ooops unconfirmed!
Lufthansa                                         34 **F=Frieght Version non passenger.
----------------------------------------------------
Boeing       111         30         44        166  Booked          ttl 351
Options                    12         14         50 Total Options         76
LOI                                                   50  Total LOI                50
                                                              Total Dubai Play 481

Math Note: All undefined 777 orders are counted in the 777-9's column

The Guy Norris Aviation Week Report: Please Link to this site for concise reporting.

Let the professionals explain!

Boeing officially launched the 777X derivative at the Dubai air show on the back of 259 orders from four airlines worth almost $100 billion, making it the largest single commercial launch by value in the history of the industry.

Dubai-based Emirates Airlines grabbed the lion’s share of the contracts with firm orders for 150 777X, plus purchase rights on a further 50, while neighboring Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways shared the limelight by ordering an additional 50 and 25 respectively. Together with Lufthansa’s earlier order for 34 777-9X, Boeing says the combined value of the 777X agreements is more than $95 billion. The Emirates order is made up of 115 of the larger capacity -9X versions and 35 -8X, while Etihad will take 17 777-9X versions and eight -8Xs. Etihad’s order also includes options and purchase rights for 12 additional 777X.

Beyond the 777X, Boeing’s 787 orderbook also received a significant boost with Etihad ordering 30 787-10s. Together with the carrier’s previous order for 41 787-9s, the -10 purchase means Etihad will become the largest operator of the 787 with a total of 71 787s on order. The deal includes options and purchase rights for an additional 12 787-10s and marks the 1,000th order for the 787 family since All Nippon Airways launched the program in April 2004. The Etihad selection also means the 787 has reached the 1,000 firm order milestone in just over nine years, faster than any other twin-aisle aircraft. Etihad’s order also includes one additional 777 freighter plus two options.

The 777-9X will be configured to carry more than 400 passengers, and will have a range of more than 8,200 naut. mi. The 777-8X, which with capacity for 350 passengers is sized close to the current 777-300ER, will have a range of more than 9,300 naut. mi. The aircraft will be powered by General Electric’s GE9X which will be rated at around 105,000 lb. thrust, confirms David Joyce, the engine maker’s president and CEO.

“The -9X will have a 16% to 17% delta in fuel burn (compared to the current 777-300ER), and is an aircraft that is redesigned inside and has a new wing,” says Emirates Airlines president Tim Clark. “It is all composite and has great lift over drag. The -8X is about the same size as the 777-300ER but will be able to fly 17 hours to 18 hours non-stop and with the same fuel efficiency as the -9X. It’s a step change in aircraft design and a step change in propulsion but we have to wait seven or eight years for this to come.”

Design of the 777X is under way and Boeing confirms suppliers will be named “in the coming months.” Production will begin in 2017, with first delivery of the 777-9X targeted for 2020, with initial deliveries of the -8X following around 18 months later.

Almost eclipsed by the twin-aisle order avalanche was the news that flydubai has ordered 100 737 MAX, all of them -8s, as well as 11 737-800s. The deal is valued at $11.4 billion at list prices, including purchase rights. It is the largest ever Boeing single-aisle airplane purchase in the Middle East, says the manufacturer. First flight is scheduled in 2016 with deliveries starting in 2017. Flydubai currently operates the 737-800 and so far has taken 33 of the 50 aircraft it ordered in 2008.

My Uncle Paul: An Enigma And A Gentleman

My Uncle Paul: An Enigma And A Gentleman

December 6, 2012 at 10:59pm

 

 Paul and Margaret Mellinger

Here is a brief summary of his life from his Ham radio club.

One could say Paul Mellinger, NI6P, was a very fortunate man. He lived in interesting times. He achieved great things, any one of which would have made most men happy. And he was one of us. He was first licensed as W8PWW in 1936.Paul was a member of our club from the early eighties until a few years ago, even though he and his wife Margaret, N6IBE, had moved to Auburn in the mid 1990's. Each year at field day,he was our backbone CW operator. CW was his favorite mode, though he also would work rtty. He was a superb CW op and took great pains to make his operation successful. I remember that he had each lead of his keying paddle made with shielded cable. He was also a member of FISTS, member number 3153, a CW society of Morse Code aficionados.Born in Youngstown, Ohio, Paul graduated from South High School, attended Youngstown College, and then joined the USNCR.

Before WWII started you could find Paul operating from the radio room of the USS Ramsay, a four stack, 'high speed', mine laying destroyer based at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.As the United States entered WWII, Paul gained entrance to the Aviation Cadet Corps. He was commissioned and graduated in March, 1942. First chosen as a pilot instructor for twin engine aircraft, he served at Williams Field, AZ, teaching young pilots how to fly the P-38, etc. Paul then flew combat sorties in Europe with the 8th AF, in the 359th Fighter Squadron of the 356th Fighter Group flying P-47 Thunderbolts. He was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross. His outfit operated from Martlesham Heath, in England, from 5 October 1943 until 5 November 1945.

After the war, Paul went to work for Lockheed Aircraft. He worked eight years in Japan in the company's T-33, P2V7, and F-104J manufacturer's programs. In 1964, he transferred to the program which brought him to Beale AFB, and consequently to us. He served as Lockheed's chief 'tech rep' for the famed triple sonic SR-71 reconnaissance plane. As with any Lockheed employee, you would never hear Paul talk about the program he managed at Beale when he was not at work. The SR-71 program was always 'cloaked in secrecy', and a good part of that was fostered by the serious people who worked in the program.

Paul retired in November, 1987. But it was in this capacity that I first met Paul in July, 1983, and Margaret, who was the office manager for Lockheed at Beale.As part of my duties, I met Paul the first week I was on base. We had bought our home from another Lockheed employee, and I guess that is how Paul found out I was a ham. As I recall, once Paul was satisfied I was really a neophyte to reconnaissance, he proceeded to engage me in a conversation about ham radio. You could tell he was really into this hobby of ours.Paul R. Mellinger, NI6P, became a silent key June 25, 2003, at the Kaiser Hospital in Sacramento. He was a fortunate man, but those of us who got to know him and call him friend, were very fortunate.The Current Issue of the Valley Ham Newswww.ysarc.org, 24 June 2010 [cached]Paul Mellinger, NI6P; change E-Mail to ni6p@jps.net, Phone, 530-889-9012.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Addendum: Andrew Boydston

Aside from this story I heard with humility, regarding his flying during World War II over Germany; stated not with pride of conquest, but with humility and honor of serving. Even though he played an important part in the effort.

Regarding the SR-71 period of his life he said little and, no more what was reported in the newspaper. Paul traveled around the world keeping this quantum leap of technology flying.  Paul recounted with a smile, just a smile, when I asked him “how fast does it really travel”? The encyclopedia says Mach 3+, he would report.  Never could I get him to budge on that point.  He gave an extensive detail of how the SR-71 nacelle would articulate in and out, changing air flow to subsonic speed before going into the jet compressor. One time he noted that the USSR sent up Mig 25 Fox Bats, the world’s fastest short range interceptor to knock down the SR-71.  He reported the SR-71 pilot hit the after burners and the Fox Bats would disintegrate at about Mach 2.8, blowing its engine and the aircraft up, while chasing the SR-71in its  Idle at Mach 3+, "after all that is what the brochure says it flies and the Fox Bat couldn't fly as fast as the SR-71 brochure speed".  Missiles didn't catch the SR-71 either, because that couldn't fly as high, far, or fast; because SR-71's Mach 3+ would fly out of range, and drop off USSR tracking in pursuit. I asked how fast did the missiles go, and he said not fast enough.

I never knew how fast the plus (+) is, because it was his secret. That was Paul's enigma with me after 20 years of trying to learn.  What he knew, was far more than what I could learn.  What he accomplished is far more than an average person could do in a lifetime. He was a true member of the America's Greatest Generation. Today we find people who ignore honor and humility. I am glad to know my uncle and humbly honor him with his memory.

Paul's Mach 3 + are what dreams are made of:

This December 7, Never Forget, the sacrifice given by all.

Captain Hindsight Shows Up At The Boeing Gate

Its the after IAM vote Obituary: IAMs last hurrah in the NorthWest. If I were in the IAM I would be renting a house, not buying. Boeing's offer in the contract establishes a Plan "B" finger print all over it. The 777X program will move off site in 5 years. Time enough to build elsewhere. Many suitors are in the the hunt way before this vote. Boeing had already made up its mind they just needed the Unions cooperation with a vote no to make it happen. Boeing story is complete for its next big thing. I admitt I missed it earlier since I was going with a cheaper brand of tea leaves.

Boeing has a plan and follows these steps.

Phase I
1. What if Everett Washington Was Nuked By Boeing, Then what?
2. Boeing needs three plausible Plan B's by noon yesterday.
3. Plan B's arrived sooner rather then later.
4  Provide IAM a cannon fodder contract for a vote up or DOWN.
5. Its a vote "no" as predicted, Nuke it! Send people over to The Center For Blame Development (CFBD).

Phase II
1. We are at phase two where are the 5 year plans for the 777X?
2. California, Texas or elsewhere plan B's on the Table by noon.
3.. "Unions, I don't see no stinking unions", options are opened..
4. Where is the two year build plan for facility development?
5. Land, Lots of land; Water, lots of Water, and Rail lots of railroads.

The Power Grid and Phase III

1. Liberalism and capitalism make for strange Bedfellows in the State of Washington.
2. Oil, Texas and More Oil get along better as Emirates, Dubai and Qatar become Launch customers for the 777X.
3.What  about Houston and NASA property up the road a piece from the Gulf of M.
4. Texas fly's non stop to just about everywhere, and its right next to somewhere.
5. Houston solves a problem and shoots for the moon.

Press conference is held in Seattle at the CFBD explaining how all this could have been avoided, but it was from the IAM decision making leadership, of which unfortunately, they had no control over. They voted and "We" acted to save the company! We have to compete as our competitors are offering COTS copies at an alarming rate.  "Blah,Blah, Blah" is a word added to the Boeing Lexicon.

So now you have it from the universal Boeing calculator, A world driven by corporate land mines and hopeful minions seeking a pay check.

Temperature Rising In Dubai

Now rumors are beginning to explode across the Sand. $100 billion may go by in Dubai before its over. Boeing may have the high ground this year and collect a significant recognition from orders from its total line of aircraft from the 737 clear through the 777X. Below is the the dance card for this event.

Seattle Times Chart

Please link to Seattle Times: What Is This 777X You Speak Of?

A good reference chart above for Billionaires and their friends. The 777-8 looks to sit on top of the Airbus A350-1000 with its proposed range and capacity of 353 folks and 10,800 mile stretch. The 777-9  will be the Twin Engine Maestro of the skies hauling would be A-380 and 747 clients, en mass on their way in an 18,000 mile arch.  Going 9,300 miles east one way, and then 9,300 miles west the other way from the same airport. That could be a circum-navigation of  habitable earth from just one airport with 407 of your best new friends during a twelve hour or longer social experience.

Everybody in the Arab league is kind of keeping its hand sort of close to the vest until Sunday next. $100 Billion in play, I would expect Airbus will shore-up some interest for its follow-on business, and other  loose ends not yet in closing. However, Boeing will break ground on a rising new star, the totally remade and innovative 777X family of aircraft. Airbus must endure this display of ordering until its next Paris rendezvous in 18 months.  In the mean time the flailing 787 glitch is melting into late into 2013, and thoose blimishes will clear up like a teenager does on his 20th birthday. No more pimples please on the 787 program during 2014! Now that we have that thought scrubbed off the face of The Dubai Airshow, clamor is starting to line up a confirmation of rumors for the show as all the rumors of orders keep exploding out in the last 48 hours. 100 Billion will approach a Paris or London amount in value. However, since Airbus does not have any new game changing types showing up at the show I suspect that Boeing will have its cheesy smile team (cst) in place already, as they measure out (tape measures in hand) the different venues at the show and the best camera angles. They will be marking the spots with masking tape on the floor where they should humbly stand when commenting about 100 Billion in orders at the show. Somewhere, the name Boeing will be mentioned several thousand times during press briefings. And oh yes, Airbus will be there too! I can't wait for Boeing humbleness to meet Airbus humiliation (or just humility)...

LIFO and FIFO Run On The Factory

No matter how you slice this time of year the "Bean Counters" get  their crack at making money at the big airline manufacturers. Whether its first in first out or last in first out, the production team  looks at the order book in a forever stretching big back up kind of way, and a lengthen line of parts from its work orders. Bean counters argue the merits of LIFO over FIFO, and the Boeing Tax accountants weigh-in with preservation of cash attitude for Boeing and making less available for the government(s), who is standing in for various taxation wind falls. Below is a production minded chart, where I would rather discuss production strategy with the marketing team hanging near the delivery center listening in.

    
If I were a stock holder, I would be interested in the the growing production back log since the start of the 787 first delivery in 2011. Not whether the accountants use a FIFO or LIFO Inventory valuation system. The fact that over three years the deliveries have reached 101 787 placed in customers hands while increasing the standing backlog of undelivered aircraft by 129, as of November 12, 2013, demonstrates production must expand by a significant number in 2014. Take into account that after the Dubai airshow there remains a possibility of significant 787 orders added to the order book going directly  on top  of its 129 backlog increase since 2011. This would propel Boeing forward with a production increase greater than ten per month with a sooner mode rather than increasing productivity using the later option. Backlog saturation will hog tie the marketing effort as customers will lament if they had ordered several years ago, they might be only 700 units away from its own delivery.  Now the 787 steady growth backlog will be hard to impress perspective buyers to sign on with a minimum wait of 8 years out from today, unless they jump into the 787-10 line hoping to by-pass the 787-9 crowd.

The Dubai airshow will make for interesting customer strategy and Boeing conversations with its customers will be an interesting  listened-in. I would imagine that Boeing will tell its customers about the new production rates, and how well they will push, pull and shove out 14 units a month by 2015. When they hit producing 150 787's a year, the backlog will be down enough to make everyone "Happy", right????. Next year at this time, the backlog should change depending on marketing's effort in its attempt for holding off Airbus. Production will have a Christmas party and celebrate the new year. However they may have a backlog expanding past 150 since tallying  a first delivery benchmark in 2011 of a 752 backlog at the start, and inspite of delivering another 15-18 aircraft before the end of this year. Numbers will be crunched, sales stories will be told, and the backlog will grow like the turkey before Thanksgiving. Boeing  needs more square footage and trained personnel over the next five years, as a solution for selling more 787's, otherwise its a hollow sales victory selling one  more 787 unless production can deliver in a reasonable window of time.

If  that marketing arm captures everyone's attention in Dubai with the 777X, then a whole new requests will be made tasking production, and it won't be "would you Like LIFO with that Order".

Bird On The Wing The Vote Is For Wednesday

Japan eagerly awaits the IAM machinist vote this upcoming Wednesday on November 13th. If the IAM rejects Boeing's offering, the Puget Sound machinist will need to rethinks its collective resume with Boeing. Wings may go to Japan, and the Body may go to Long Beach. Either way, Boeing is prepared to invest in the Northwest further if the Union agrees to reduced retirement plans and new income structure offered by Boeing. The gauntlet has dropped for the NW airplane Machinist Union, and on Wednesday, Boeing will see if they will pick it up. A post union vote of No, will send Boeing into a reconfiguration for the Northwest. Japan will benefit, no doubt. Plant facilities are available elsewhere. The message was sent from Charleston that Boeing can build on any swamp at any time. Or on any desert at any time and do it in two years or less.

Boeing may covet that opportunity to do just that, and would like the IAM to accommodate Boeing by a no vote on Boeing's offer, making it a clean bulldozer move onto some 2500+ acres in the US or overseas. Boeing would then write its own ticket without the IAM. However, members who are 10-15 years from retirement would say do I really don't want to move at this time, while my son or daughter is planning college? I see that vote picking up the gauntlet with attitude and voting yes for some. The new workers, who have a small dog in the fight don't know how to play this and people are ready for retirement will vote with its collective single finger pointed at Boeing. The vote will be varied and Boeing has positioned itself as wanting to move on sooner rather than later. Boeing has a vote passage team on stand-by ready to implement the 777X program, and a vote no team ready for a carved up renovated and rebuilt program spread out over the globe.

A no-way Boeing vote would also promote labor strife in the NW, causing disruptions and other harming slowdowns. The part of this business has been explored as everyone hopes a labor issue doesn't erupt at any time. All involved dare speak of it unless into the late hours of night. Boeing would prefer peace and status quot for transitioning to the 777X project. The two cards in play are Boeing's contract indifference, and the other, a labor dispute from the union. These two cards can be avoided by both committing to the greater purpose. The 777X is a critical tactic in stopping Airbus. Boeing don't biff it up! Boeing has options around the world, but don't use those options unless it’s part of an over-arching plan for super seeding Airbus' answer to Boeing family of aircraft. Don't use clout against unions just because Boeing has created an opportunity to deal with unions.

Each move should be a competitive move to win the airplane wars. Your best (the unions) should be assured of its part in Boeing's success. Even though I am not a Union proponent and spent my life guarding against any union partnership, I would examine the advantages Boeing's relationship with Unions in achieving its goals. You (unions) have paid more through organized workmanship, and it has brought the company to this point. Because the union existed, it has placed its own accountability on itself as a Boeing partner. If something failed on the floor, the workforce is accountable for those faults. I am not in favor of a union workshop for other reasons. Boeing would ultimately cause itself unrepairable harm. If it continues to seek relief from being encumbered by Unions, during a time of moving forward, then it unnecessarily risks the bigger picture of beating its competitor. All involved should wait, a union will self-destruct like many other organized governing bodies have done throughout history, and in time that paradigm will shift.

Boeing needs to keep its eye on the ball, period. I realize it has hedged its bet with the labor uncertainties by going after other plan B's. Those plan B's should be for its competitor's not for its labor voice. If labor wants too much as is often tempted to do, then it needs to re-examine its relationship with Boeing. Too many irons are in the fire and one faction does not build any aircraft. However, they the craftsmen and women, need proportionality for the whole idea, and its conception into reality.

 

Sense And Sensibility To The MAX

Two words define the 737 and the airline world, as a whole. Picture the airline market with many moving cogs and gears, emulating movement much like a composite aircraft. Sense has one definition and sensibility another view. The market place is caught in that vice of two words with different results. In 1910 you build a magnificent hotel  hoping to become the premier place in which to go in the world. The building is built to last 100 years. The beds get changed out every three years. The paint is applied every ten years and so forth. In all that you must keep guest entertained and updated with the latest trends into the 1920's. Just maintain relevancy. A very expensive need, is the cost of relevancy. If this magnificent hotel becomes a classic then the builders and business acumen have succeeded. By the year 2000, that hotel must have the latest appointments in service and technology (wifi) and maintain the sentimental flavor of a Victorian age hotel. However, the hotel market has shifted to a modern phase of many options and gadgets, bringing customers into the 21st century. Only people with a Victorian sensibility check-in to the overly renovated 90 year old hotel. Its market has shrunk into a refined niche for that old hotel, no matter how much renovation is conducted.

The scenario is true for auto makers, theatres, and cruise lines. The old Chevy Malibu is an example of re-invention in the 21st century. The Hilton has stepped up to a new era.  What does this has to do with aviation and Boeing? Everything, for the production of  new models and retiring old models, while keeping the customer relevant.  The NG was the next best thing just about a dozen years ago. It had all Boeing could throw at the 737 and make it relevant as a brand new model. Competing with the A-320 it had to offer more and more advanced features with its design. The   main selling point is that the NG would replace the follow-on Classic, which came from the original generation of 737's. Billions of dollars where poured at the 737 NG for its 25 year life cycle single isle jet. Those 25 years in service would make a customer buckets of money because of its longevity in service.

The 737 Max is on board in 2013. Promising the same kind of sensibility of having a long lasting modern single aisle airplane for the next 25 years. So, some airlines begin the retirement process on its 11 year old NG's fourteen years early, trying to make sense out of it. These airlines across the board would like to sell thousands of older NG's to down the line, to 3rd world airline companies just like the old days with the DC-3. "Wait a minute", someone says. "The 3rd world has grown up and are buying the latest and greatest from both Airbus and Boeing. That doesn't make sense!". What's a salesman of Boeing to do. Its sensibility says build it to the Max and a rate of 47 a month taking away Airbus' ability to shorten the wait on single aisle aircraft. Boeing is walking a tight rope of selling NG's and Max's at the same time. Ryan Air Bought 175 NG's this year and will leverage its capitalization with the after market Advance Engineered wiglets, as an ad-on, and install advanced engines making its investment fly cheaper from lower purchase price (lower loan interest payouts), and reasonable fuel efficiency. As a matter of speaking, Ryan  Air bought new beds for its hotel and added a world class spa and new fixtures, et al. The other airlines are going for the latest designs and features as a brand new Hilton.  Ryan Air is a good or great seat buy depending on your sensibilities. The sensibilities market shrinks with age. The Sense market widens with newness.

If you want to experience practicality and reliability you go for the tried and true product of your  youth. If you are adventurous you would want to to fly on all new concept airplane that may reach its perfection in ten years after delivery. However, the NG exercises your sensibility, for value, comfort and reliability of that NG. What is your sense? Adventure, excitement and  lower perceived cost? If you have a cost sense it is for a better efficiency, which is wiped out by its higher cost of purchase for the newest designed airplane like the MAX. It would be like buying a 100 mpg car for $100,000. How much fuel could you buy for $80,000, the amount saved by by buying  a $20,000 eco car. Even though the Max will burn 14% less fuel it is a more expensive airplane, and maybe could be replaced in 15 years after its first delivery, where the airline is buying the next slice of bread. By then many NG's will still be flying. The Max is for companies that will charge maybe an extra $20 dollars to fly on the MAX or a NEO. My sense and Sensibility collide on this point. I will pay for the ticket out of town no matter the model, regardless if the sense says go Max or your sensibility says go NG. It comes down to preference for the customers and the bottom line for the airline. The steeper capital investment on for the MAX could be paid back at  a quicker rate depending on the word of mouth promotion or an airline marketing for its new equipment. The real battle is for both sense and sensibility over its competitor, Airbus. It is Ryan Air Sense that the NG purpose will maintain its sensibility for 15 more years, and then it will have the sense to buy the next best slice of bread in 2030.