My Uncle Paul: An Enigma And A Gentleman

My Uncle Paul: An Enigma And A Gentleman

December 6, 2012 at 10:59pm

 

 Paul and Margaret Mellinger

Here is a brief summary of his life from his Ham radio club.

One could say Paul Mellinger, NI6P, was a very fortunate man. He lived in interesting times. He achieved great things, any one of which would have made most men happy. And he was one of us. He was first licensed as W8PWW in 1936.Paul was a member of our club from the early eighties until a few years ago, even though he and his wife Margaret, N6IBE, had moved to Auburn in the mid 1990's. Each year at field day,he was our backbone CW operator. CW was his favorite mode, though he also would work rtty. He was a superb CW op and took great pains to make his operation successful. I remember that he had each lead of his keying paddle made with shielded cable. He was also a member of FISTS, member number 3153, a CW society of Morse Code aficionados.Born in Youngstown, Ohio, Paul graduated from South High School, attended Youngstown College, and then joined the USNCR.

Before WWII started you could find Paul operating from the radio room of the USS Ramsay, a four stack, 'high speed', mine laying destroyer based at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.As the United States entered WWII, Paul gained entrance to the Aviation Cadet Corps. He was commissioned and graduated in March, 1942. First chosen as a pilot instructor for twin engine aircraft, he served at Williams Field, AZ, teaching young pilots how to fly the P-38, etc. Paul then flew combat sorties in Europe with the 8th AF, in the 359th Fighter Squadron of the 356th Fighter Group flying P-47 Thunderbolts. He was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross. His outfit operated from Martlesham Heath, in England, from 5 October 1943 until 5 November 1945.

After the war, Paul went to work for Lockheed Aircraft. He worked eight years in Japan in the company's T-33, P2V7, and F-104J manufacturer's programs. In 1964, he transferred to the program which brought him to Beale AFB, and consequently to us. He served as Lockheed's chief 'tech rep' for the famed triple sonic SR-71 reconnaissance plane. As with any Lockheed employee, you would never hear Paul talk about the program he managed at Beale when he was not at work. The SR-71 program was always 'cloaked in secrecy', and a good part of that was fostered by the serious people who worked in the program.

Paul retired in November, 1987. But it was in this capacity that I first met Paul in July, 1983, and Margaret, who was the office manager for Lockheed at Beale.As part of my duties, I met Paul the first week I was on base. We had bought our home from another Lockheed employee, and I guess that is how Paul found out I was a ham. As I recall, once Paul was satisfied I was really a neophyte to reconnaissance, he proceeded to engage me in a conversation about ham radio. You could tell he was really into this hobby of ours.Paul R. Mellinger, NI6P, became a silent key June 25, 2003, at the Kaiser Hospital in Sacramento. He was a fortunate man, but those of us who got to know him and call him friend, were very fortunate.The Current Issue of the Valley Ham Newswww.ysarc.org, 24 June 2010 [cached]Paul Mellinger, NI6P; change E-Mail to ni6p@jps.net, Phone, 530-889-9012.
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My Addendum: Andrew Boydston

Aside from this story I heard with humility, regarding his flying during World War II over Germany; stated not with pride of conquest, but with humility and honor of serving. Even though he played an important part in the effort.

Regarding the SR-71 period of his life he said little and, no more what was reported in the newspaper. Paul traveled around the world keeping this quantum leap of technology flying.  Paul recounted with a smile, just a smile, when I asked him “how fast does it really travel”? The encyclopedia says Mach 3+, he would report.  Never could I get him to budge on that point.  He gave an extensive detail of how the SR-71 nacelle would articulate in and out, changing air flow to subsonic speed before going into the jet compressor. One time he noted that the USSR sent up Mig 25 Fox Bats, the world’s fastest short range interceptor to knock down the SR-71.  He reported the SR-71 pilot hit the after burners and the Fox Bats would disintegrate at about Mach 2.8, blowing its engine and the aircraft up, while chasing the SR-71in its  Idle at Mach 3+, "after all that is what the brochure says it flies and the Fox Bat couldn't fly as fast as the SR-71 brochure speed".  Missiles didn't catch the SR-71 either, because that couldn't fly as high, far, or fast; because SR-71's Mach 3+ would fly out of range, and drop off USSR tracking in pursuit. I asked how fast did the missiles go, and he said not fast enough.

I never knew how fast the plus (+) is, because it was his secret. That was Paul's enigma with me after 20 years of trying to learn.  What he knew, was far more than what I could learn.  What he accomplished is far more than an average person could do in a lifetime. He was a true member of the America's Greatest Generation. Today we find people who ignore honor and humility. I am glad to know my uncle and humbly honor him with his memory.

Paul's Mach 3 + are what dreams are made of:

This December 7, Never Forget, the sacrifice given by all.

Captain Hindsight Shows Up At The Boeing Gate

Its the after IAM vote Obituary: IAMs last hurrah in the NorthWest. If I were in the IAM I would be renting a house, not buying. Boeing's offer in the contract establishes a Plan "B" finger print all over it. The 777X program will move off site in 5 years. Time enough to build elsewhere. Many suitors are in the the hunt way before this vote. Boeing had already made up its mind they just needed the Unions cooperation with a vote no to make it happen. Boeing story is complete for its next big thing. I admitt I missed it earlier since I was going with a cheaper brand of tea leaves.

Boeing has a plan and follows these steps.

Phase I
1. What if Everett Washington Was Nuked By Boeing, Then what?
2. Boeing needs three plausible Plan B's by noon yesterday.
3. Plan B's arrived sooner rather then later.
4  Provide IAM a cannon fodder contract for a vote up or DOWN.
5. Its a vote "no" as predicted, Nuke it! Send people over to The Center For Blame Development (CFBD).

Phase II
1. We are at phase two where are the 5 year plans for the 777X?
2. California, Texas or elsewhere plan B's on the Table by noon.
3.. "Unions, I don't see no stinking unions", options are opened..
4. Where is the two year build plan for facility development?
5. Land, Lots of land; Water, lots of Water, and Rail lots of railroads.

The Power Grid and Phase III

1. Liberalism and capitalism make for strange Bedfellows in the State of Washington.
2. Oil, Texas and More Oil get along better as Emirates, Dubai and Qatar become Launch customers for the 777X.
3.What  about Houston and NASA property up the road a piece from the Gulf of M.
4. Texas fly's non stop to just about everywhere, and its right next to somewhere.
5. Houston solves a problem and shoots for the moon.

Press conference is held in Seattle at the CFBD explaining how all this could have been avoided, but it was from the IAM decision making leadership, of which unfortunately, they had no control over. They voted and "We" acted to save the company! We have to compete as our competitors are offering COTS copies at an alarming rate.  "Blah,Blah, Blah" is a word added to the Boeing Lexicon.

So now you have it from the universal Boeing calculator, A world driven by corporate land mines and hopeful minions seeking a pay check.

Temperature Rising In Dubai

Now rumors are beginning to explode across the Sand. $100 billion may go by in Dubai before its over. Boeing may have the high ground this year and collect a significant recognition from orders from its total line of aircraft from the 737 clear through the 777X. Below is the the dance card for this event.

Seattle Times Chart

Please link to Seattle Times: What Is This 777X You Speak Of?

A good reference chart above for Billionaires and their friends. The 777-8 looks to sit on top of the Airbus A350-1000 with its proposed range and capacity of 353 folks and 10,800 mile stretch. The 777-9  will be the Twin Engine Maestro of the skies hauling would be A-380 and 747 clients, en mass on their way in an 18,000 mile arch.  Going 9,300 miles east one way, and then 9,300 miles west the other way from the same airport. That could be a circum-navigation of  habitable earth from just one airport with 407 of your best new friends during a twelve hour or longer social experience.

Everybody in the Arab league is kind of keeping its hand sort of close to the vest until Sunday next. $100 Billion in play, I would expect Airbus will shore-up some interest for its follow-on business, and other  loose ends not yet in closing. However, Boeing will break ground on a rising new star, the totally remade and innovative 777X family of aircraft. Airbus must endure this display of ordering until its next Paris rendezvous in 18 months.  In the mean time the flailing 787 glitch is melting into late into 2013, and thoose blimishes will clear up like a teenager does on his 20th birthday. No more pimples please on the 787 program during 2014! Now that we have that thought scrubbed off the face of The Dubai Airshow, clamor is starting to line up a confirmation of rumors for the show as all the rumors of orders keep exploding out in the last 48 hours. 100 Billion will approach a Paris or London amount in value. However, since Airbus does not have any new game changing types showing up at the show I suspect that Boeing will have its cheesy smile team (cst) in place already, as they measure out (tape measures in hand) the different venues at the show and the best camera angles. They will be marking the spots with masking tape on the floor where they should humbly stand when commenting about 100 Billion in orders at the show. Somewhere, the name Boeing will be mentioned several thousand times during press briefings. And oh yes, Airbus will be there too! I can't wait for Boeing humbleness to meet Airbus humiliation (or just humility)...

LIFO and FIFO Run On The Factory

No matter how you slice this time of year the "Bean Counters" get  their crack at making money at the big airline manufacturers. Whether its first in first out or last in first out, the production team  looks at the order book in a forever stretching big back up kind of way, and a lengthen line of parts from its work orders. Bean counters argue the merits of LIFO over FIFO, and the Boeing Tax accountants weigh-in with preservation of cash attitude for Boeing and making less available for the government(s), who is standing in for various taxation wind falls. Below is a production minded chart, where I would rather discuss production strategy with the marketing team hanging near the delivery center listening in.

    
If I were a stock holder, I would be interested in the the growing production back log since the start of the 787 first delivery in 2011. Not whether the accountants use a FIFO or LIFO Inventory valuation system. The fact that over three years the deliveries have reached 101 787 placed in customers hands while increasing the standing backlog of undelivered aircraft by 129, as of November 12, 2013, demonstrates production must expand by a significant number in 2014. Take into account that after the Dubai airshow there remains a possibility of significant 787 orders added to the order book going directly  on top  of its 129 backlog increase since 2011. This would propel Boeing forward with a production increase greater than ten per month with a sooner mode rather than increasing productivity using the later option. Backlog saturation will hog tie the marketing effort as customers will lament if they had ordered several years ago, they might be only 700 units away from its own delivery.  Now the 787 steady growth backlog will be hard to impress perspective buyers to sign on with a minimum wait of 8 years out from today, unless they jump into the 787-10 line hoping to by-pass the 787-9 crowd.

The Dubai airshow will make for interesting customer strategy and Boeing conversations with its customers will be an interesting  listened-in. I would imagine that Boeing will tell its customers about the new production rates, and how well they will push, pull and shove out 14 units a month by 2015. When they hit producing 150 787's a year, the backlog will be down enough to make everyone "Happy", right????. Next year at this time, the backlog should change depending on marketing's effort in its attempt for holding off Airbus. Production will have a Christmas party and celebrate the new year. However they may have a backlog expanding past 150 since tallying  a first delivery benchmark in 2011 of a 752 backlog at the start, and inspite of delivering another 15-18 aircraft before the end of this year. Numbers will be crunched, sales stories will be told, and the backlog will grow like the turkey before Thanksgiving. Boeing  needs more square footage and trained personnel over the next five years, as a solution for selling more 787's, otherwise its a hollow sales victory selling one  more 787 unless production can deliver in a reasonable window of time.

If  that marketing arm captures everyone's attention in Dubai with the 777X, then a whole new requests will be made tasking production, and it won't be "would you Like LIFO with that Order".

Bird On The Wing The Vote Is For Wednesday

Japan eagerly awaits the IAM machinist vote this upcoming Wednesday on November 13th. If the IAM rejects Boeing's offering, the Puget Sound machinist will need to rethinks its collective resume with Boeing. Wings may go to Japan, and the Body may go to Long Beach. Either way, Boeing is prepared to invest in the Northwest further if the Union agrees to reduced retirement plans and new income structure offered by Boeing. The gauntlet has dropped for the NW airplane Machinist Union, and on Wednesday, Boeing will see if they will pick it up. A post union vote of No, will send Boeing into a reconfiguration for the Northwest. Japan will benefit, no doubt. Plant facilities are available elsewhere. The message was sent from Charleston that Boeing can build on any swamp at any time. Or on any desert at any time and do it in two years or less.

Boeing may covet that opportunity to do just that, and would like the IAM to accommodate Boeing by a no vote on Boeing's offer, making it a clean bulldozer move onto some 2500+ acres in the US or overseas. Boeing would then write its own ticket without the IAM. However, members who are 10-15 years from retirement would say do I really don't want to move at this time, while my son or daughter is planning college? I see that vote picking up the gauntlet with attitude and voting yes for some. The new workers, who have a small dog in the fight don't know how to play this and people are ready for retirement will vote with its collective single finger pointed at Boeing. The vote will be varied and Boeing has positioned itself as wanting to move on sooner rather than later. Boeing has a vote passage team on stand-by ready to implement the 777X program, and a vote no team ready for a carved up renovated and rebuilt program spread out over the globe.

A no-way Boeing vote would also promote labor strife in the NW, causing disruptions and other harming slowdowns. The part of this business has been explored as everyone hopes a labor issue doesn't erupt at any time. All involved dare speak of it unless into the late hours of night. Boeing would prefer peace and status quot for transitioning to the 777X project. The two cards in play are Boeing's contract indifference, and the other, a labor dispute from the union. These two cards can be avoided by both committing to the greater purpose. The 777X is a critical tactic in stopping Airbus. Boeing don't biff it up! Boeing has options around the world, but don't use those options unless it’s part of an over-arching plan for super seeding Airbus' answer to Boeing family of aircraft. Don't use clout against unions just because Boeing has created an opportunity to deal with unions.

Each move should be a competitive move to win the airplane wars. Your best (the unions) should be assured of its part in Boeing's success. Even though I am not a Union proponent and spent my life guarding against any union partnership, I would examine the advantages Boeing's relationship with Unions in achieving its goals. You (unions) have paid more through organized workmanship, and it has brought the company to this point. Because the union existed, it has placed its own accountability on itself as a Boeing partner. If something failed on the floor, the workforce is accountable for those faults. I am not in favor of a union workshop for other reasons. Boeing would ultimately cause itself unrepairable harm. If it continues to seek relief from being encumbered by Unions, during a time of moving forward, then it unnecessarily risks the bigger picture of beating its competitor. All involved should wait, a union will self-destruct like many other organized governing bodies have done throughout history, and in time that paradigm will shift.

Boeing needs to keep its eye on the ball, period. I realize it has hedged its bet with the labor uncertainties by going after other plan B's. Those plan B's should be for its competitor's not for its labor voice. If labor wants too much as is often tempted to do, then it needs to re-examine its relationship with Boeing. Too many irons are in the fire and one faction does not build any aircraft. However, they the craftsmen and women, need proportionality for the whole idea, and its conception into reality.

 

Sense And Sensibility To The MAX

Two words define the 737 and the airline world, as a whole. Picture the airline market with many moving cogs and gears, emulating movement much like a composite aircraft. Sense has one definition and sensibility another view. The market place is caught in that vice of two words with different results. In 1910 you build a magnificent hotel  hoping to become the premier place in which to go in the world. The building is built to last 100 years. The beds get changed out every three years. The paint is applied every ten years and so forth. In all that you must keep guest entertained and updated with the latest trends into the 1920's. Just maintain relevancy. A very expensive need, is the cost of relevancy. If this magnificent hotel becomes a classic then the builders and business acumen have succeeded. By the year 2000, that hotel must have the latest appointments in service and technology (wifi) and maintain the sentimental flavor of a Victorian age hotel. However, the hotel market has shifted to a modern phase of many options and gadgets, bringing customers into the 21st century. Only people with a Victorian sensibility check-in to the overly renovated 90 year old hotel. Its market has shrunk into a refined niche for that old hotel, no matter how much renovation is conducted.

The scenario is true for auto makers, theatres, and cruise lines. The old Chevy Malibu is an example of re-invention in the 21st century. The Hilton has stepped up to a new era.  What does this has to do with aviation and Boeing? Everything, for the production of  new models and retiring old models, while keeping the customer relevant.  The NG was the next best thing just about a dozen years ago. It had all Boeing could throw at the 737 and make it relevant as a brand new model. Competing with the A-320 it had to offer more and more advanced features with its design. The   main selling point is that the NG would replace the follow-on Classic, which came from the original generation of 737's. Billions of dollars where poured at the 737 NG for its 25 year life cycle single isle jet. Those 25 years in service would make a customer buckets of money because of its longevity in service.

The 737 Max is on board in 2013. Promising the same kind of sensibility of having a long lasting modern single aisle airplane for the next 25 years. So, some airlines begin the retirement process on its 11 year old NG's fourteen years early, trying to make sense out of it. These airlines across the board would like to sell thousands of older NG's to down the line, to 3rd world airline companies just like the old days with the DC-3. "Wait a minute", someone says. "The 3rd world has grown up and are buying the latest and greatest from both Airbus and Boeing. That doesn't make sense!". What's a salesman of Boeing to do. Its sensibility says build it to the Max and a rate of 47 a month taking away Airbus' ability to shorten the wait on single aisle aircraft. Boeing is walking a tight rope of selling NG's and Max's at the same time. Ryan Air Bought 175 NG's this year and will leverage its capitalization with the after market Advance Engineered wiglets, as an ad-on, and install advanced engines making its investment fly cheaper from lower purchase price (lower loan interest payouts), and reasonable fuel efficiency. As a matter of speaking, Ryan  Air bought new beds for its hotel and added a world class spa and new fixtures, et al. The other airlines are going for the latest designs and features as a brand new Hilton.  Ryan Air is a good or great seat buy depending on your sensibilities. The sensibilities market shrinks with age. The Sense market widens with newness.

If you want to experience practicality and reliability you go for the tried and true product of your  youth. If you are adventurous you would want to to fly on all new concept airplane that may reach its perfection in ten years after delivery. However, the NG exercises your sensibility, for value, comfort and reliability of that NG. What is your sense? Adventure, excitement and  lower perceived cost? If you have a cost sense it is for a better efficiency, which is wiped out by its higher cost of purchase for the newest designed airplane like the MAX. It would be like buying a 100 mpg car for $100,000. How much fuel could you buy for $80,000, the amount saved by by buying  a $20,000 eco car. Even though the Max will burn 14% less fuel it is a more expensive airplane, and maybe could be replaced in 15 years after its first delivery, where the airline is buying the next slice of bread. By then many NG's will still be flying. The Max is for companies that will charge maybe an extra $20 dollars to fly on the MAX or a NEO. My sense and Sensibility collide on this point. I will pay for the ticket out of town no matter the model, regardless if the sense says go Max or your sensibility says go NG. It comes down to preference for the customers and the bottom line for the airline. The steeper capital investment on for the MAX could be paid back at  a quicker rate depending on the word of mouth promotion or an airline marketing for its new equipment. The real battle is for both sense and sensibility over its competitor, Airbus. It is Ryan Air Sense that the NG purpose will maintain its sensibility for 15 more years, and then it will have the sense to buy the next best slice of bread in 2030.

Predictive Nature of 787 Sells The 777X

Boeing, a few years back had the 787 on the CAD screen at various locations throughout the world. Engineers from all over weighed in on the physics of this aircraft. What can the 787 do with its make-up and new engines configurations. The vote came in at least 15% fuel improvement. "Now lets go build it", said Boeing. "Our computer models tell us we can fly for 15% less fuel than our own best comparable model now flying. Its a winner!".  Since that Eureka moment, even Leonardo da Vinci would be proud of, Boeing proceeded to build the 787 off the screen, testings, models and wind tunnel concepts. It took about 7 years to to get it off the ground. "Viola" it gained 21% fuel improvement in some cases but no lower than 15% in worst cases for fuel sipping improvement. Even though its been plague by the press reported with every little and big glitch, its an extremely safe aircraft because of its overbuilt glitch reporting systems. Glitches are not accidentally found by maintenance checks, but are more often found by purpose built system checking and reporting.

No other aircraft built to date has the the information about every little function working on board and how its performing. The detail of performance is so refined it becomes annoying with failed indicator reports, lights and bells.  All the bells and whistles sound off whenever something isn't quite right, even if it turns out its a false indication of something not right. However, the other side of the two edge sward is the performance indication proves the the Boeing engineers were too cautious by saying a 15% percent fuel savings.  It ranges from about 18%-22% depending on aircraft configuration and conditions. No too shabby of a prospect for airline customers on long legged routes. An aircraft taking off expends a lot of fuel compared to the rest of the trip. The longer the trip, the greater the fuel load weight it must burn and carry to go further. But the Average of 20% improvement in real time operations is phenomenal over the CAD idea of 15%.

This speaks well for the 777X program, and excites the customers if Boeing can replicate this lesson learned from all of Boeing's empirical data from the 787 project. Boeing has earned a place in the sales world of delivering on reliable information from the drawing board to the flight line. Boeing is claiming a 20% fuel improvement for fuel burn over similar current generation models with the 777X. How this compares with the A-350-1000 is a mystery, since that aircraft has not flown yet. That remains to be seen during the 777X development phase. The development phase will have continuous evolving engines from GE. The engine evolution will go forward right up until the first test model. Then go through a second evolution after test flights, and then have a PIP for new customer models.  I get the picture the engines are in a continuous evolutionary mode. The body design can be refined on the CAD and with wind tunnel testing. Lessons learned come forward from the 787 wing building. The 777X's heavier aluminum body over the A350-1000 plastics will not be such a penalty as the flight surface efficiency nullifies a slightly heavier aircraft than the plastic A-350 version of similar size. Boeing will increase airplane volume for that slightly increased weight, maximizing aero dynamics and canceling heavier drag features. This will enhance fuel burn upward to 20% over current existing aircraft in operation today.

The 787 lesson for customers did not go unnoticed. Boeing said, from the drafting board they could get 15% better fuel efficiency on the 787, and then they got 20% better efficiency in real time operations. The 777 X is aiming for 20% better efficiency over existing 777 like models, and Boeing may get more by the time it actually delivers, when using the 787 example as a predictive confidence builder for its customers. That is what is stirring the aviation world at this time, is that Boeing proposes an aircraft that Airbus can't touch in the current building and development cycle. Boeing's computer modeling is slightly understated from the building learning curve and evolution of technology during the build phase. By the time 2020 comes along, the 777X will have squeezed a few more percentage points out of its current 20% model everybody is getting excited about. Japan Airlines has missed the development high ground that Boeing is perched on, While Airbus is stuck building an airplane it never believed in, when it announced it is going to copy Boeing by building an Airplane where Airbus stated, Boeing couldn't succeed with a plastic airplane in the first place. I hope this confuses somebody. ;<)

Boeing Needs Two "Fish On" Call Outs

When you are trying catch your limit when fishing you need luck, skill and the right time for a catch. Boeing needs two fish before calling out "fish on". One is the Washington State legislature who has to come to terms with Boeing incentives this next week early, before the second fish can come on, The IAM union vote is scheduled later next week. If the Washington Legislature can't offer what Boeing wants, it becomes an non incentivize plan B move for Boeing using its paid facilities elsewhere, and then the second IAM fish becomes less attractive. Boeing needs to hook both fish this next week.  In 2003, the legislative incentives where laid down on Boeing's financial keel. However, wiggle room "rewarded" Washington State with a Charleston, SC plant, and extensive parts making in Japan when it came to the 787 project. The wings flew the Washington coop for Japan. Washington State got schooled by Boeing's lessons learned committee of expressway deed doers from corporate offices.

Japan has now schooled  Boeing by attracting all Boeing's business to its country and then Japan Airlines commits the unpardonable sin of ordering 31 Airbus A350. Having  dug a deep  hole of lost trust in Japan, Boeing is going to Dubai to make a statement next week at the Airshow, pointed  directly at JAL The 777X better be all that! Otherwise, things will get nasty at Boeing for awhile. I image some Corporate Change Management will occur, if the next X doesn't run smoothly off the flight line. Therefore, since I drank the Boeing cool-aide a long time ago, I think the 777X program  will stimulate the world thirst with a fuel sipping  777X, and view the A-350 as a clunker next in line to the Edsel.

Back to the Washington Legislature: The debate will continue on Friday November 8 and into early next week. How do we incentivize Boeing and not have them build plan B in like Long Beach, California of all places. Washington State can build wings too! :(  Not only that, didn't we already give Boeing the keys to land west of the Cascades and beyond? :) If the state can extend the 2003 May-Flower-like compact through 2025 with fewer loop holes, as in no new 777X plants elsewhere outside the NW.  With a previso that all major assemblies remain within Washinton's tax base, This exchange and consent with agreements of a tax benefit for Boeing, in the manor "pleasing" Boeing's Board in Chicago. The statement using the word "pleased" is a common verbage Boeing uses in PR bullets when announcing a deal with another  airline, and should be included when making a deal with Washinton State or The union. "Boeing is pleased to announce , yada yada, yada, that both the Unions and State of Washington have offered its services in building the world's best aircraft, the 777-X, somewhere North of Olympia and so forth.  At least I got Boeing's PR words in, "is pleased", in the approprate spot of this paragraph.

More pleasing thoughts on this matter. What do you do with the 5,000 folks in SoCal who are now working on the last C-17 on this run? I have an Idea! How about moving the 767 tanker project south, once flight testing starts on the 767 KC145 project.  The 5,000 would continue with military projects like the tanker, and the space opened in Everett would give the 777X a slick new production center. Its then roomier in Everett and Boeing could build the remaining order book on the 777-200/300 standing orders when expanding into the old 767 space for the 777X. Good thing Boeing doesn't have me working for them, I have many more ideas like that which could ruin a company, just sayin! The two fish to land for Boeing are, the envelope please:

• the IAM contract vote, yes, with Boeing and...
• Incentivization for Boeing from the Washington State Legislator

JAL Has The Rest Of The Story Opting For Airbus.

The Rest of the story Link for full read

JAL abandon Boeing 787 ship late in the delivery of its relationship with Boeing. Not only did it raise eyebrows in Chicago but caught the Japanese government flat footed its administering aviation giants ANA and JAL  Since JAL went bankrupt the government went in a bailed them out. Also giving JAL premium landing slots over ANA. It special relationship pretty much froze JAL out of taking on an Airbus a giveaway order of its aircraft, where it had over the last 60 years purchased with Boeing.

Now comes the caveat, with ANA now stationed at second fiddle in the airport line up, JAL received special considerations for new slots as part of the recovery plan and then spends its money on Airbus after having a "special launch" reltionship with Boeing and Governental support in recovery of its financial failure. So JAL turns around and takes the Airbus Giveaway order of 31 A-350 right before its governments eyes and sends them an e-mail about it. Boeing not complaining, (rightly so) stands back and says whoah, what just happened hear with our feature launch customer, JAL? Launch customers treat its partners better than that assuming they had crossed all T's and dotted all the I's with JAL. Cold is the word used and cold is what happened. What is Boeing going to do when ANA takes a shot with Airbus in a few months, another 30 A350''s. What wrong with the 787, or is it a quick swing to diversify while no one is looking?  I believe JAL has taken a calculated move at many levels in the Boeing relationship. I also believe they are cold and becoming independent and want act like the Arab nations asw a purchasing cartel, and have and make choices. Message is received by all participants.

They will now go the twisted trail forward without launch customer privileges or government bailouts. They want to play hard ball, and now they will get fast balls, curves and a few knuckle-balls along the way from this point forward. The Boeing pitching squad will treat them kindly, but no special deals await Japan Airlines from this time forward. The trust has been broken as Boeing did not see it coming from a launch partner JAL, who threw them under the Orient Express Bus.

Please read the entire linked article above and form your own opinion

787 Glitch Statistics By Press AI Leads the Pack

It dawned on me awhile back that Air India has an inordinate

amount of glitching. You see them as false lights blinking, Panels dropping off on final approach, and faulty parts. So I looked at where AI Inventory came from in the 787 line of craft

Below are AI first 10 units and where they are built.

Everett                Charleston

# 1                            #3
#2                             #4
#8                             #5
#10                           #6
                                 #7
                                 #9

Totals  4                   6

Step one is to isolate a problem containing two factors. Customer proficiency and source of build. AI has reach a statistical number most people can relate to and come up with a broad assumption without tying any one glitch to a source. This is dangerous ground in sampling.

• 98 aircraft built by  Boeing and delivered
• 10 in sample size
• 10% Sample Size From Boeing is The AI Fleet
• 60% of all AI 787's are built in Charleston
• 50% of Charleston's builds have delivered to Air India
• 40% of all AI are built in Everett

More detail in stats:

• 98- 787 are delivered representing 100% of the population tested.
• 4- 787's from Everett = 4.1 % of Boeing population and 40% of AI 787 fleet
• 6- 787's  from Charleston = 6.1 % of Boeing population and a 60%  0f AI Fleet

Now for some more number crunching without any empirical or actual glitch data.

The probability of glitches in Air India fleet should have 60% assigned to Charleston built aircraft and 40% assigned to Everett built aircraft. What becomes curious is that Charleston does not build 60% of Boeing's aircraft but some number ssouth of that, causing a weighted skewing in this example.

Charleston has delivered 12 out of the 98 787's in customers hands of which AI now owns 6 or half of the Charleston production. AI has the highest glitch rate publicized for awhile now. The main thing about statistic is to develop a trend or a predictive picture of outcomes in an manufacturing process.

Having had a lifetime effort wrapping my mind around statistics during performance auditing or error statistics you could develop conclusions based on the tests and raw outcomes. AI is a good case for this type of work. Several things need to happen at both ends of the test.. One is a Boeing Everett to Boeing Charleston comparison of delivered  Aircraft for its completeness and fault expectation, the second is Air India's ability to manage this new technology.

If a performance audit would determine AI is doing everything required operating its aircraft, then the shoe drops on the production source. If a majority of the glitches occur on the Charleston built aircraft where AI owns 60% of its fleet from Charleston, then Charleston has some serious maturing before its ready for prime time.. Boeing owns that data in the far reaches of its relational data base and is not public information. Completeness tests in auditing should be conducted on the process of building the 787. Something appears to be out of skew.

Summary:

• 12.25% of all 787''s comes from Charleston
• 60% of Air India is From Charleston, representing half of the Charleston 787 ever built and delivered.
• Air India is a Leader in frequent Glitching

Now here comes the "Nail Biter":

Both Norwegian Aircraft come from Everett and have had a recent rejection inspection on its aircraft where Boeing came and fixed it, Anomaly?