Boeing's Perfect Storm Sunk A JAL Deal

After taking a break during and after the JAL deal where it bought 31  A-350's. The shock of sinking has washed ashore. Boeing has done its damage control and is picking up the pieces from that announcement.  It is an announcement with years in the making. Japan Airlines a stalwart partner with Boeing for over 50 years abandon ship in the perfect storm. Like the movie of the same name type, "Perfect Storm", Boeing floundered the order dumping stars of its cast into the Japan seas. They all drown!  Now I have rested, and recovered from the epic tale of the sunk 787.  The story started a long time ago and was being chipped away, against its hull since the 2007 roll-out ceremony.

It starts with a customer who bet billions on sleepless nights, and anxious days over the Dream-liner. Japan Airlines has no more stomach for rolling headlines and giant rogue waves of publicity.

Three  Storm Fronts Collide Into The Perfect Airbus Order:

• Five year delays the storm front
• Glitches, Battery and grounding slams another storm front
• 777-X aannouncement delay, places Japan out of that initial order line

Japan will not repeat another sinking feeling with Boeing's perfect storm sequence that engaged in the  787 project. They went to a "safe harbour", and now sit at the local Airbus Pub, sipping beer with Airbus. They are planning the next fishing trip. Too many sad stories with the 787 recalled while Airbus ordered another pitcher of beer from its bar.  You could hear a bleating waltz in the background.

Like all great stories true or fiction there are upswings and low points. Airbus caught JAL at a low point with its resolve in Boeing, and then got off the hook letting Boeing go and sink away. That is a common thought. Like all inspired stories that are true, there is a stunning turn no one can imagine. Did JAL make a mistake? Or did Boeing fail in its all new airplane? The answer will be played out during the next two years for certainty sake.  Like all airplane soap operas, there was a building separation between the partners. A growing mistrust that the relationship was not a good relationship after all. Maybe JAL should date other people in a trial, and find out if Boeing is the answer. Boeing kept bringing the candy and flowers to JAL's door step. Maybe JAL felt that Boeing was creeping them out in stock-er fashion, and was too nervous to go all the way with Boeing only to sneak out of it, by dumping Boeing when Boeing was having a good year!  Anyway the soap opera story is a captivating story. A person would enjoy a Laundry detergent commercial break for a kitchen resupply or take five for to maintain bodily functions during the commercial break. Silly as this seems, Boeing has been served by JAL in the Airbus affair. Jilted and shocked, this does convert into the typical reactions of a blown love affair over another suitor.

Boeing's emotions are secretly held. It will hold its head high and will comeback as many love affairs do in the movies, where the dropped partner shows up  making  a scene of how good or how worthy they are by some demonstration of valor or excellence. JAL may or may not respond. The November Airshow in Dubai is that event with all the marbles on the table with the 777--X announcements, which may explain why JAL is dating Airbus. The are angry they didn't get a invited to the 777-X Ball in Dubai and are snarling off with Airbus showing Boeing up a little (alot). After-all they were five years late showing up at JAL's house and spilled glitches all over JAL's outfit in a drunken, stumbling roll-out. Not only that, Boeing kept making promises all night long that it couldn't keep. Boeing made a fool of itself with JAL and now this smooth guy from Europe, we all love to hate, has come in with 31 roses and a delivery promise it can keep, because of the lower technology road it choose to take. The high technology road that Boeing took failed, regarding the mishaps and poor development strategy with the world suppliers were unable to deliver. Irony is that Japan's manufacturing delivered. Glitching was not a Japan embarrassment for being late on the date.

What is Boeing going to do to win back its first love in Japan? That is the next episode in this soap opera. Since I write script I will offer a draft script for this story. Whether Boeing will buy it or not, that is its decision. But writing is all I have for Boeing at this time. The scene opens up in Dubai with the Airlines of the world looking on. JAL is in the audience. Boeing stands up to the micro-phone and announces a new programme of reformation and quality. The 777-X character reformation is complete. Boeing is better and promises to never make those mistakes from lessons learned again. The crowd applauds. Boeing is really a good guy that had a rough spell. All manufacturers have its moments. Boeing's moment is of great advancement.  They are sorry for any inconvenience it has caused. However, this is about this new guy attending the airshow. A wink and smile is given towards the JAL booth as Boeing pats its heart. Orders are up next. Boeing has its dance card attached to its wrist as the Ball begins. In Victorian fashion, Boeing dance card has Qatar, Etihad, and Emirates with several more names listed on the card. (camera Close up , No JAL).

Boeing has a slight smile while thinking it took only 31 roses to win over Japan Airlines, when I'm now holding about 150 in one great bunch with the 777-X. Boeing is still sad, knowing how great that relationship has been and still could be.

The next episode will not be revenge or reconciliation, but it starts out as hope towards rebuilding the friendship. Boeing will be more careful on how it brags about its technological reality. It really can do what it promises, but is not in a smooth manner, and has worked on its social skills with being a smooth listener. Boeing may rope the horse with a finer rope, but often misses its target. Airbus stands closer and places the rougher ropes on the horses neck and rubs it while whipering in the ear. What Airbus whispered is what Boeing needs to improve on more than just technology, it needs to improve its catsing of its opening line.

When JAL Made Me Cough My Cookies

Good Job JAL, I'm taking a week off with my therapist. Rehab has been wonderful. You know its so good that I want to write about Norwegian Air. You know them as the Vikings, that threw an Axe at Boeing. BUT, it isn't that at all like that. Norwegian is actuallly loyal and in love with the dreamliner, and not willing to even consider an A-350 or anything else, even when its troubled 787, is parked for referbishment.  The secret, shhhh, don't tell anyone is "Boeings Gold Care". Norwegian bought it! Wow, I never saw that one comeing, Gold Care. This means Boeing is responsible for the Norwegian's 787 problems. It means Boeing engineers, mechanics and ground team are staying at 5 star facilities making the 787 into a champ.. Did JAL,  do Gold Care?

The CEO of Norwegian Air, has recovered from his buzz kill when both of His 787's passed some problems in public. A tap on the shoulder from a co-exec and a whisper,"Gold Care and kippers at six tonight"!  Bjorn Kjos, Ceo Norwegian Air was resessitated for the next interview, and somehow this Blogger could go to physco therapy with a clear mind.  I now don't have to throw brick bats  at JAL or even ANA if they betray Boeing as well.

Here is why, Jet Star knows the score and so does Norwegian. Norwegian hedged its bet with Boeing Gold Care, having Boeing experts fixing its airplanes.   Here is my, "I'm on vacation link"

Norwegian Air CEO says Boeing changed 787 pump design

In this ariticle I found therapy for my shattered nerves.

• A CEO excited about the 787

"I think the Dreamliner is going to be a fantastic aircraft," said Kjos, a former fighter-jet pilot."

• An Airline with a Boeing solutions pouring forth

Boeing later said it constantly improves its planes after they begin service. "As part of that process we have made minor changes to the 787 hydraulic pump in an effort to improve the airplane's performance and reliability."

• An abated heart attack when Boeing came a running

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The chief executive officer of Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA said on Thursday that Boeing Co redesigned an important part to fix a faulty 787 Dreamliner, revealing a more extensive reworking of the high-tech, $200 million (125.1 million pounds) jet than had previously been disclosed.

Bjorn Kjos told Reuters in an interview that Boeing created a new version of a malfunctioning hydraulic pump that controls flaps used to steer the plane as part of a two-week overhaul to fix problems with the jet. (Reuters interview:http://reut.rs/1adre8g)

• The Happy Face Icon is allowed on Norwegian Air computers

:)

• They could careless about the A-350

Kjos said he was not considering the 787-10, because that longer version has less range than the 787-9 model. He also was not interested in the Airbus A350, a competing plane that recently beat out Boeing's yet-to-be-launched 777X for a landmark order from Japan Airlines Co Ltd <9201.T> breaking the lock on JAL that Boeing has held for decades.

• They saw JAL's move and thought, "Idiots" money , money, money- lost leader

Kjos said he wants to buy more 787s - including the forthcoming stretch version, the 787-9 - to allow passenger growth at Nor wegian Air that he forecast at 20 percent a year, up from about 20 million passengers a year currently. But he provided no details on potential orders or timing.

"Nothing can substitute a Dreamliner. I'm totally convinced that we made the right decision when we went for the Dreamliner," he said.

• And then thought, "the 787- is money,money money, is what we make!"

Norwegian Air's forecast growth of 20 percent a year in coming years will require more 787s beyond the eight it already has ordered, with two delivered, he added.

The airline is considering destinations that include Chicago, Boston, Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, Seattle and Minneapolis. Those flights might not all go through Europe.

"We fly where people fly," he said, noting a huge demand - and competition - from Asia to Europe and the United States.

The airline is hiring flight crews based in New York and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to allow more flights from those cities as it receives more Dreamliners in coming months.

Norwegian Air is due to receive its third Dreamliner in late November and a fourth early next year. Those jets will allow it to begin daily flights from New York, Kjos said.

Norwegian Air is the first budget airline in recent years to offer transatlantic services. It plans to fly to Los Angeles, San Francisco and Orlando, Florida, on top of its routes to Fort Lauderdale and New York.

Last year, Norwegian Air placed Europe's biggest aircraft order when it bought 222 planes from Boeing and Airbus. It has been one of Europe's most successful carriers, taking market share from SAS AB while moving outside its traditional Nordic market by setting up bases in London and Spain.

The airline said it can operate long-haul flights for 30 percent less than traditional airlines, mainly because of the Dreamliner's lower operating cost and the jet's ability to fly for 18 out of 24 hours, he said.

After the article is skimmed  through, my therapist said "I'm okay you're Okay" (I read the book in the seventies). The world is at least moving in circles each day. The JAL/Airbus tryist is a broken trust and friendship thing. **it happens sometimes. Boeing has to believe in itself and continue the fight, which I'm sure they were doing several months ago when they suspected they were loosing an order with one of its closest partners. JAL at least owes Boeing an explaination, because friendship  and trust means something in this day and age.

If no explaination is offered, other than a money difference, then Boeing has been excused as a trusted partner and that's that! Japan has just opened a door for Boeing to take its options forward. Shared technology is on the table as is everything else.

PS Therapy is overated.

Lurkers I'm Taking a One Week Break

Enjoy all past articles, I will be back on the October 15th, 2013 slinging mud.

Airbus Steals One Big Order In "Plane" Sight.

"Everett we have a problem", ANA  JALpulled a fast one and ordered some 31 Airbus A-350 in plain sight. What's worse for Boeing is that ANA  JAL. ANA another Boeing stalwart is ordering another like order for March 2014.

ANA Answers Airbus In April 2014

Remeber These Points at ANA

• Airbus gives ANA preferred status as a customer, relating to pricing and delivery
• Airbus gives ANA similar performance of high tech Aircraft that may compete
• Airbus has a commonality plans for ANA pilot training and ground crews.
• Airbus promise of no "teething" issues, (TBD) Lower tech approach is the bluff
• Airbus has removed wait time risk in delivery aircraft of lower tech aircraft is more reliable
• Airbus will "always", beat Boeing's offering and ANA becomes an Airbus  launcher
• Airbus has a buy 10 get one free coupon punch card for preferred customers
• Airbus has an XWB that iis wider than anything built... "well its just wider".
• Airbus is running out of talking points, and timely is mentioned, and no delays and cheaper  and...

So what's up Scooby, The fox got into the Hen House and is making silly putty out of Boeing's Dream. Its not an "Abandom Ship moment", its more like a "All Hands On Deck Moment". Sneak attack on Tokyo is on and Boeing Sales team, well, took one for "Boeing's Sales Team". Randy Tinseth is back eating Poi in Hawaii.

A second observation from the ANA lead article Last month:

Now onto the Boeing's fight card of bullet points from the history files of 787:

• Boeing reminds ANA of its most important relationship because it is really, important!
• Boeing is has a more efficient and higher tech two generational leap in aircraft
• Boeing acknowledges the Time commodity, but strangely enough, time heals all
• Boeing reminds ANA that it has delivered on its promise; 20% fuel, 30% service(Delta)
• Boeing describes the A-350 as being one generation behind the 787
• Boeing has retired most of, or if at least, two generations of risks
• Boeing listens,, and will respond, to all questions and concerns,
• Boeing sees ANA as not a preferred customer but a valued partner
• Boeing demonstrate value is better than the lowest price, even if  ANA uses a sales punch card with Airbus.

Did Boeing forget to memo JAL or at least take to an "extended lunch meeting", during a nigh time meeting. I don't have answers   why JAL is opting out for the A-350 at this junction, unless Boeing could not make appropriate restitution on the "Boeing 787 Teething Woes".

However I am not too depressed over this, at this time. Because I know heads will role if it is not addressed in a workman like manner. Message receive by all Boeing employees, " we all our in a fight for our livelihoods. With or Without Affordable Health Care Act on the line, our effort is on the  line since loosing a Marque customer like JAL for 31 A-350's on order directly centered in an order cycle. You can imagine JAL will not add to the Boeing order until after the A-350 is first delivered. So what happened? I am sure Boeing was working hard to appease JAL for all those glitches. The problem was Boeing was working hard to appease all those glitches. What a conundrum! Airbus could about the wonderful A-350 that has yet to be delivered over champagne while Boeing had more people in Japan working glitches than it has back in Everett, WA making aircraft. Norwegian Air's anger management seminar was ill timed for JAL emotional state. Don't get me started! Because there is plenty to account for leading up to JAL A-350 announcement. Its has had enough of the headlines and scared passengers. Sick Publicity, glitches and bad reputation is what Boeing offers with the 787 and JAL is the one abandoning ship and calling all hands on deck because they just completed that drill and it did not change the course for JAL.  Boeing as much as it wants to cannot control the glitches of almost 100 aircraft flying. They are now addressing ever little problem with a sense of urgency. They know they are publicly in trouble with its great aircraft because Boeing sold a lot press copy for the world's press. Some of it ridiculous, and some of it, rightly so. Non the less Boeing has a black eye and Airbus walks into Boeing's citadel and steals the show with the JAL order.

What will Boeing do? They are doing it starting about a few weeks back.

Damage Control 101:

• Announcing a problem solving solution with hyper-active problem solving teams.
• Management  and tracking of Glitches where Boeing Annice's  problems and solutions
• Take control of the information spin from the press and make it a Boeing Story from the source
• Press work is not privy to problems while freely expressing opinion style news, Team-up with customers on problems and press before a wedge is placed between customer , Boeing and the press.
• Find out what the customer needs, during this time of "Teething"
• New Airplane Results that are not puff and fluff. Airbus is eating Boeing's cotton candy during bad press times as Boeing replies with cotton candy responses. The talking Heads (Leaders) have to stop talking corporate style and talk like they are an advocate for its customers .

Omission 201:

• Problems are true and correct and Boeing is accountable for the issues. 
• They are not just valued customers, Boeing is sharing its Vision Statement
• Omission is establishing an effective team that will cut the head off of problems
• A perception exist that the problem's head has not been cut off.
• Apology looses value when more apologies are expended.
• Apology only stops when the problems stops but is a necessary omission

Losing a Partnership 301:

• A lost order is a lost partnership
• A Partnership is much like a marriage when one walks out, a surprise by the other signals the failure belongs to the other

Australia's Jet Star Eight Taking On The New Zealand -9's Down Under

The revely tune has hit the Australian Aviation Industry. Jet Star/Qantas is receiving its 787-8 on Wednesday of this week. A 335 passenger mini behemoth, schedule to seat more than New Zealand Air's own 787-9 mid next year. From the talking points from a New Zealand based  news center comes these filtered summary for  the undeclared passengers  wars down under.

"STUFF

We want the airplane to perform better than it is today," he said.

"With any new airplane, you will get a lot of learnings as you see how the airplane's performing."

The battery problem had been solved by encasing it in a 3.175-millimetre-thick stainless steel box, with vents to the outside of the aircraft.

Loftis said Boeing took "full ownership" over another issue involving malfunctioning antennae from a supplier, adding: "There's only so much I can say because it is an active investigation."

Boeing's operations centre in Seattle has a dedicated team which monitors its customers' fleets of 787s.

Thousands of parameters are measured and logged, and any maintenance issues are immediately flagged with the airlines.

Alan Joyce, chief executive of Jetstar's parent company Qantas, was not fazed by the series of glitches.

• "We're very comfortable this is an extremely safe vehicle," he said.
• Joyce said Qantas had a team working alongside Boeing and its chief engineer had visited Australia to brief him.
• "In terms of the reliability, every aircraft that's been introduced has had reliability issues at the start," he said.
• "The 787 is the newest kid on the block - it's getting a lot more attention."
• Jetstar has stolen a march over Air New Zealand, which is expected to receive the first of 10 of its own Dreamliners midway through next year.
• The national carrier will be the first airline to take delivery of Boeing's 787-9, a "stretched" version of the original plane which carries up to 40 more passengers than the 787-8s and has a longer range.
• The 787's main attraction is a 20 per cent improvement in fuel efficiency over similar sized aircraft, which is expected to produce huge savings for airlines.
• It also boasts a range of new passenger comforts, including larger, electronically-dimmable windows, a lower-pressure cabin and higher ceilings.

Now New Zealand   Air has severe ants in the pants waiting these next 9 months. Its 787-9 jet will carry up to 290 passengers with  excellent combinations of room.  The spacious 787--9 will spread out some of its aircraft with 250 seats and a 41" pitch for upper class. It has the premium economy as well as economy, or a business class for those who prefer sitting in the air over sitting in office space. New Zealand air uses its airbourne real estate enticing the experience much like a Hilton motel. Jet Star will leave the "light on" much like Motel 6. The war for passensseger will be interesting. New Zealand will fly west. Jet Star will fly est with bucket loads of passengers.

"The Kiwi flag-carrier is the Boeing's launch customer for the 787-9, is a stretched version of the original 787-8 Dreamliner which can carry an estimated 40 more passengers than the base model 787-8 while also boasting greater range.

Australian Busneess Traveller Link

The Corner Address Is 100 Boeing Way USA

Looking at the delivery chart indicates a significant milestone. Boeing is at 92, 787's delivered! Just eight shy of the bench mark number of 100 787 deliveries. Today there are more 787-9's on undelivered status, than 787-8's that are to be delivered. Considering multiples of frames under assembly, and the post assembly frames awaiting delivery, by the end of the year about 125: 787-8 frames could be delivered in total for the program. Leaving a bulk of the frames, by a significant number, for the 787-9 to be delivered.

Model Ordered Delivered Undelivered

787-8 483          95                  388

787-9 406           0                   406

787-10 90           0                     90

The interesting point is that back in 2005-2006, Boeing had set projections of aircraft progressions in a following sequence:

The first 40 aircraft were deemed to be in production development. Refining the process with its builders and suppliers, while honing in its skills for building aircraft. The 787 process would achieve maturation in its development by frame 40.

What happened is history, many frames remain in a newly added on Boeing manufacturing campus for frame renovation, in the attempt of setting those frames right. What has now become referred to as the "Change Incorporation and Rework Center." Sounds like an institution for solving the mistakes made, not anticipated. The frame numbers are slowly dwindling is this special remedial class, and the frame numbers are rapidly expanding towards the Ln#150, benchmark. Frame 150 onward is supposed to be clear skies for the 787. A testament to that, will be the 787-9. Solving everything the 787-8 failed to do in its initial entry into service, with a 787-9 bounce back. That is a strong possibility this will happen with the 787-9, and will become the aircraft everything that the 787-8 wasn't. Boeing is scrambling to stop glitching as the final straws are put into place. Consistency is the key goal for Boeing with its overly complex aircraft. The 787-9 is the validation Boeing expects, needs and requires. A perfectly made 787, that the 787-8 could not be, but the 787-9 will be. The good news for the -8, from frame 150 and beyond, is that it will work just as good as the 787-9. The 787-8 early copies are forgotten because change incorporation has swept-up all the Boeing crumbs off the table, and is ready to party on dude from the factory floor to the airport terminals. One problem remains, that is the reputation issue of glitching.

By frames 40-100, Boeing would have the process mastered and optimal output achieved. In fact after frame 65 all aircraft come out the assembly door ready for flight testing and not sent to some kind of holding storage. After frame 100 any lessons established would be set in the 787 mold going forward. Finally, from frame 150 and beyond full maturity hits the program, whether it’s a -8 through the -10, the 787 ship is righted and sailing just fine beyond frame Ln#150. That is Boeing's dream for its customers. That is also why from corporate heads on down want the glitches to stop. Boeing is going to dog its suppliers, and its own production procedures for a million or so parts working as designed, or examining the assembly processes are correctly applied. No more parts gaffs, failed pumps or crimped wires. The press is eager to shame Boeing for all of the above problems. The questions I have not unlike the operating system jump for computers where a new OS does not meet customer expectations, because it’s beyond customer comprehension, does it mean it’s a failure?

My answer is no, since it becomes a journey of discovery for the customer and what it expects for a phenomenal invention. A caveman really likes his stick for digging but doesn't understand the implications of a steel shovel. That is the story of the 787. It advances aviation beyond the intrinsic understanding of 787 possibilities found within its skin. It will take time for passengers to understand what just happened on their flights. After reading about all those glitches, times 10 news outlets over one week for one light bulb lighting-up on one flight, makes passengers in India nervous not wanting to fly the aircraft. What makes the flying public nervous is all the attention given the routine on an un-routine aircraft. I too would pause and think every time an aircraft can't fly, "should I get back on?"

The address from above, suggest one thing, has Boeing turned the corner at #Ln100 Boeing place? The answer is definitely yes. By unit, 150, the press will have to shift and pick on the next aircraft up. The 787-9 will not have the 787-8 developmental problems, because problems have been addressed in the -8 and are fixing glitches on-the-fly. Therefore, I would expect the -10 will fly like the -9 as a seamless exercise of the 787-8 lessons learned on an entirely new airplane design that no one else will or could touch in the next 30 years.

Home Strech 2013, Predictions and Outcomes For Boeing

Like everything in this world, nothing is for certain, but comes from a predictive nature from just being focused on one topic and knowing what will happen to X when Y occurs. However, the unpredictable nature of "Y" greatly affects "X" outcomes. Outcomes in the finacial world is that observation of the "Y's"  affecting the "X" factors in aviation in hind sight. Here is a short list of X's verses the  outstanding yet to occur "Y's" that are Identified by this blog for Boeing's 4th Quarter that just began going until January 1st or until day one of 2014. That date will incapsulate the "X" factor for 2013, affected  by the "Y" timeline of uncertain factors,  applied with outcomes were money is invested upon. The deliveries mark production, progress, and promise. The "Y" factor are customer promises based on its perception of Boeing's dilivered promise. Confusing, unlessless a person breaks it down on these two  principals.

Delivery (or X) is the validation of the program, operations is the validation of that delivery.

Orders are based on "Y" issues such as delays, functionality failures, and unforeseen external issues of the customer. Example, uncefrtainty over the 787 grows into a sefious "Y" problem holding off the X process of delivery and increased satifaction and more orderss.

The two X factors are:

• End of 3rd quarter delivery ooutcome totals Article BY: Air Transport World

Boeing is reporting 170 commercial aircraft deliveries during the third-quarter, comprised of 112 737 NGs, four 747s, five 767s, 26 777s and 23 787s.

Boeing’s 170 deliveries represent an overall 14.1% increase in third-quarter deliveries for the company, compared to the year-ago quarter. Deliveries of 787s nearly doubled, and 737 deliveries increased by 9.8% year-over-year.

Among Boeing’s third-quarter deliveries to the world’s regions, 79 aircraft went to the Asia-Pacific region (53 to East Asia, 15 to Southeast Asia, five each to Oceania and South Asia, and one to Central Asia). Boeing said 44 aircraft went to North America; 24 went to Europe; 11 went to Africa/Middle East (nine to the Middle East, two to Africa); and 12 went to Latin America/Caribbean (nine to South America and three to Central America/Mexico).

China Southern Airlines took delivery of 13 aircraft, receiving nine 737-800s, two 777Fs and two 787-8s. American Airlines received eight 737-800s and one 777-300ER. United Airlines took delivery of six 737-900ERs and one 787-8

During the third-quarter, Boeing delivered 95 737-800s to 35 separate air carriers and lessors in 18 countries (China received 29 aircraft; the US took 25).

Of the 23 787 third-quarter deliveries, All Nippon Airways and Hainan Airlines each received three of the aircraft; British Airways, China Southern, Japan Airlines, Qatar Airways and lessor ILFC received two each; and Air India, Ethiopian Airlines, LAN Airlines, LOT Polish Airlines, Qantas, United and British leisure travel company TUI Travel PLC each took delivery of one Dreamliner.

• End of 3rd quarter orders taken:   

• Y Factors on the board affecting the X Game:

• Dubai announcements on the 777-X orders

Welcome to the Dubai Airshow  

  Third Quarter 2013 Orders Detail (all box data from Boeing except SWAG)

737	747	777	787	Total
166	2	15	50	233

Notes of interest from LiftnDrag are the high number of 737 orders during a three month period. If you notice very few 777 were ordered during the 3rd quarter. This could signal a huge 777-X orders flowing in at Dubai. Note that Lufthansa commitment of 34 777-X are waiting to become signature orders at this time, changing from a commitment, and will not realize fruation until after Dubai. 15 orders for the 777 in 3rd quarter is way below the annual pace in recent years of nearing a hundred orders for the model type. The big announcement will be the 150 + frames for the 777-X at Dubai, add Lufthansa before the end of the year and there will be almost two hundred 777-X before the end of the year in fourth quarter. Hence, only 15 777's were ordered in 3rd quarter.

The outlook  for the other wide bodies will be a hit and miss pace probably reaching out for a couple more 747-8's, and up to 15 more 787's. Fourth Quarter 737's should have one or two more surprises at the end of the year. There maybe another 100 orders for that type. In all, the order book could increase by 300 + by the end of the year for Boeing for all types.

Other "Y" type unpredictables.

• Max orders in total for 2013

• Control of 787 Flying Fleet Fixing  (FFF Bombs)                                                                                                                                                                                                                   First Quarter 2013 Orders Detail
  
  

  737	747	777	787	Total
  156	3	19	42	220

    2nd Quarter

  737	777	787	Total
  520	10	40	570

    3rd Quarter
  

  737	747	777	787	Total
  166	2	15	50	233

  Projecting the fourth Quarter SWAG
  

  737	747	777	787	Total
  100	2	200	15	317

  * Total Four Quarter 2013 SWAG + YTD totals   (Simple Wild *** Guess)
  

  737	747	777	787	Total
  942	9	244	147	1340

  *Winging IT Blue Sky Orders for 2013 Let's how close it is in January 2014

Montana, The Big Sky 787-10 Country,

Montana was my home for 30 years, now that I live in Idaho, Montana is where my heart lives. I worked for government in Helena Montana where the new 787-10 extension facility is expanding. Wow, the 787-10 project is just east of many wilderness complexes. What is the significance of Boeing's expansion into Montana? The Boeing Big Foot print is expanding in the Northwest. By-The Way, I’m a Bigfoot fan with a Big Foot encounter. I'm not fooled that mega corporations can close doors faster than they can open them, nor that they seek efficiency continuously and could move once a mission is accomplished for the -10. Being an old Montana boy from Missoula to Kalispell and then onto Helena, I know the Big Sky is the right sky for the -10. I only envy those who stuck it out and can now work for Boeing in Helena.

Helena Mt State Capital Near my old office.

Historic Last Chance gulch where a bit of gold came from and nifty Victorian mansions dot the city. The 787-10 facility is a support facility where the Boeing staff can hone parts skills into usable objects on its family of aircraft.

Boeing Announces Montana Site Expansion And 787-10 Work - See more at: http://businessfacilities.com/boeing-announces-montana-site-expansion-and-787-10-work/#sthash.Imod0c3F.dpuf

This is in the news because it indicates a financial commitment pushing forward in nearby Montana, the Big Sky Country. Even though I leave the Montana adventure behind several years back, I know that a new Boeing adventure is growing there, it is some nostalgic joy that Boeing tests the 787 in the Glasgow (MT) area, and builds parts in Helena Montana. Expanding further in this state is Montana Magic.

"“Boeing Helena has a great future ahead in support of unprecedented production rates,” said Eric Smith, director and site leader, Boeing Helena. “This expansion ensures we have the stable workforce, skills and now the manufacturing space we need to support production requirements and take on new production for the 787-10.”

Boeing/Helena manufactures complex parts for the 737, 747, 767 and 787 models from hard metals like titanium. Combined with its supply network in Montana, Boeing contributes significantly to the state’s economy."

The Blog is about Montana, Helena and where I once worked. I miss this moment living in Idaho. However, the Big Sky hovers near my current area, situated in Boise, ID, as well, and on a good day I can see a 787-9 flying over north of here during testing.

 My favorite shopping district "Last Chance Gulch"

It’s really Modern, It really is! Below: The way to My Old Office

Helena Presser 2013

Eric Smith, director and site leader for Boeing Helena, speaks briefly Tuesday morning at the facility in Helena before CEO Jim McNerney announced that the plant will be expanding by nearly 50 percent to support demand for Boeing commercial airplanes and new work for the Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner.

 Helena Press Clip        LINK

He credited the company’s employees in Helena for helping to make the expansion a reality. Boeing has been here for three years, since purchasing Summit Aeronautics Group from Tom Hoffman in November 20

Boeing Buys Summit Aeronautics Group from Tom Hoffman in November 2010.

"November 22, 2010 6:00 pm  •  By JOHN HARRINGTON Independent Record

36 months ago:

"A Helena company that began 13 years ago with four employees in a small building on the south side of the airport on Monday became part of the largest aerospace firm in the world.

Boeing announced Monday its acquisition of Summit Aeronautics Group, a precision manufacturing firm that today employs 135 at its local manufacturing plant.

Terms of the purchase were not disclosed. The company will become part of Boeing Fabrication, which operates 10 sites around the globe (Helena becomes the 11th) involved in various manufacturing and assembly technologies for the company's aircraft.

Boeing is buying the building, assets and inventory of Summit and will operate the plant just east of the terminal building at the Helena Regional Airport. The deal is expected to close within a month.

Summit founder and President Tom Hoffman will stay on in a technical role.

"It's been a long road," Hoffman said Monday, reflecting on the 13-year history of the company. 

"Boeing brings a variety of opportunities and security and opportunity for future growth. It's a great thing for the employee."

 Montana Start-up goes long with Boeing from 4  employees to 150 employees and a Boeing expansion in 2013.

A home town win for Helena as Boeing expands to reliability and red neck determination having a high tech bar set in place by Boeing. The 787-10 project will cross that hurdle not in Asia, but in good old Helena, Montana.

Max Effect For October 2013

Alaska Airlines orders five more Boeing 737-900s

You say Five! and then meah!, So what's the big deal here with 5, 737-900's Max. It doesn't touch some of the other orders in comparison that both Boeing and Airbus have gathered. However for me it signifies further the transition of the 737-Max family of aircraft. Southwest Airlines, the signature 737 customer has already weighed in with its initial order for the Max. The Alaska Air order signifies a western US move for improvement without changing horses in the middle of the stream. 

Article Clip-----------------------------------------------------------------------

• Alaska Airlines said it's ordered five more Boeing Co. 737-900 extended range airplanes with a list value of $481 million.
• Seattle-based Alaska Airlines, a unit of Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK), now has unfilled orders for 35 737-900ERs and 37 737 MAX airplanes.
• "Today's announcement supports our goal of growing Alaska Airlines by 4 to 8 percent a year," said Mark Eliasen, Alaska Air Group's vice president of finance and treasurer, in a statement.
• Boeing (NYSE: BA) said the 737-900ER can carry up to 26 more passengers or fly about 500 nautical miles farther than the 737-900."

So what's the purpose of writing about an order of five?  Next year could bring another order of five as the fleet updates beyond the initial 32+ 5 Max's. Alaska has a remaining pool of 35, 737-900 ER before receiving any Max product. This order indicates a long term incremental order of fleet inventory renewal within a budgetary frame work..  Numbers of note is the 26 more passengers and five hundred more miles for the -9 Max. Ouch, that is a money number,  that will lever routes, and expand markets. Its just not a fleet renewal order, but a confirmation on a new strategy.  Alaska Air is not just for Alaska, but for the adventurer where ever adventure is found. The extra 500 mile and 26 passengers for the Max will expand the Alaska business plans. Its a time zone shift outward from its current route system. Could you imagine seeing an Alaska Airways livery in Tahiti, New Zealand or Australia. "Whats up with that", I did use the word "Adventure" in the opening comments. 

That's what Alaska's Airways is about, and that's what sun-light deprivation will do to your well being. Anchorage to Hawaii or Seattle to Hawaii and so forth. The change  to a -9 Max in Honolulu from from another Max will put an airline into Airspace using the word Alaska and some Destination in the Pacific, not ever used before in the same travel brochure. The island hopping Northwest would enjoy Alaska Airways high level of service with a free pair of sunglasses awarded for every destination in the South Pacific.

The knife's edge cuts from both ends of the -9 Max edge. Distance and passengers is that edge and other airline from the east may seize on as an opportunity, and fly west with passengers on the Max -9 new extended passenger and distance range outward other places into its market expansion. The Max possibilities will change travel opportunities as Alaska Air may find out with its new inventory turn-over.

Boeing Offers The 787 Apology

Whether its landing in Iceland or hanging out in Oslo the 787 is not your Dad's airplane, even though your dad maybe assembling it. This introduction is not an apology but an observation of the 787 Aircraft operations. It would be easy to assign blame on parts is parts people or some kind of statement relating to customer incompetence, since customers the globe over suffer in silence and others squawk, as Norwegian should. Some let the performance do the talking by landing in Iceland when targeting a Polish touchdown. Either way you want to slice it or  not couch the 787 with a soft landing comment. The "787 should not" be treated like the prior generation aircraft, even though your father may be building it.  This complexity should be treated like a moon shot and not like a bus ride.   The 787 has so many new systems, parts and features that almost all are connected to some light, message or alarm. It would drive the director for "The Institute For The Very Very Nervous" ( ala Mel Brooks fame) just plane crazy.

The big question! Will Boeing get its arms around this rascally Monkey in time for the the technocrats getting it back into the Zoo? The Zoo being an airport near you.  Since no apology is adequate for all the squawks from airlines and peeps from the press, Boeing needs to up its game leaving lack luster promises off the table, and picking up the mantel of an aviation giant that it is. They are doing the politically correct thing by announcing they will do more, better, and thorough job of sending forth trouble free 787. They have no other choice but to say that line, if they want to continue to play the game.

So in comes this humble and sarcastic blogger to add on the pile of Boeing's woes. Even though being  a big fan of Boeing, I try to be realistic as my Doctor has so ordered, "stay realistic and not make fantasy your new reality".

"Doctor, its done" is my response. "Now let's go back to my child hood and airplanes".

LOT Over Iceland

Camp fires help the Boeing Chill

When things go bad, things go bad. Its a small comfort when 300  of your friends are experiencing the things go bad cockpit alarm, because some pump has over anxious detectors following every burp. In my fathers aircraft, the flying pilot used to tap the gauge checking for a stuck reading, and finish the punch line to the co-pilot as some off beat joke. Now the pilot lands in Iceland of all places, and Boeing sends its Code Blue team to Iceland for Fish and Chips.

After-all each time a 787 takes off its a "Moon Shot", not a bus ride.

I wonder out loud this question. "What are all the Airlines experiencing as a percentage trips taken, where they receive a computer generated squawk during operations? Boeing knows that answer! ANA/Japan has 23+11 flying copies and have had its share of complaints, but have since become a quiet customer for the most part. The Japanese will not tolerate poor performance without a fight. The extent of Norwegians problematic two aircraft sounds like the aircraft were delivered without a thorough check out. The technology is too complicated for the customer's ability of resolving a continuous stream of problems. Norwegian didn't build it and can't fix it, as they are currently situated, and should be unsure of how to address this complexity. Norwegian  wants Boeing to come over and make this airplane fly because its just out of the shrink wrap. I would want to take a new TV back to the store if some circuit breaker shuts the TV off every time I watch it. Norwegians request is just that, "A give me one that works request at the service counter!"

Norwegian Park And Ride

"Peeps", are what the press makes of every issue because they love to sell rumors and mishaps as a way of making money. If a 787 hits a bug its news. Not only that the wire service will replicate the "splat" for several days and in hundreds of news outlets. Its the nature of the news business. Worn out shoes are a thing of the past. Copy/paste is the new oxford shoe. Hence, the press, "Peeps", the squawks. A big Boeing perception problem! The peeps are more annoying than hornets at a picnic. What is really the bigger picture for the 787 is missed. That is why customers are staying with it and are still ordering it in quantity to this day even though the peeps litter the front page. That reality my Doctor said to embrace is as follows:

The 787 Big Picture:

• Millions of Passengers
• More and More millions of Miles
• Systems, annoyingly keep it safe (Squawks to peeps)
• Two Years in service having catastrophic problems (battery), everything worked
• Superior performance
• The Moon is in sight
• Boeing needs to up its game from your fathers airplane to a complex aircraft.

• and so forth

Now for the Faux Apology From Boeing for The 787:

This great airplane requires our greatest effort for its valued customers. We have underestimated the nature of the 787 and now have learned to harness its true potential. The customers deserve our every effort to make it fly perfectly and they will receive that attention.

Unidentified Board Room Comment:

We underestimated the true meaning of "Teething pains" or the Boeing slogan "I'm not going if it ain't a Boeing", ask Norwegian Air! An Airbus replacement lease is a slap in the face for the 787.