Favorite Things Part III: Lufthansa Order Is In

Well its here, splitting hairs with Airbus and Boeing. The order is in, and its 34 777-9X for Boeing in 2020. Airbus registers 25 A-350-9 for delivery in 2019 and after. Bloomberg and others report  the deal as a split. However Boeing takes the lion share on its unannounced (ATO for the 777X), expected later this fall in Doha.

The 19 Billion dollar order packs a wallop as a hedged order for both framers with Boeing appearing to have the larger dollar value than Airbus.

The purchase, Lufthansa’s biggest to date, is for 34 Boeing 777-9X Boeing aircraft and 25 Airbus A350-900s, the Cologne-based airline said in a statement today. Deliveries of the A350s will start in 2016, while the first Boeing 777 will be delivered in 2020.

Via Bloomberg:

"Lufthansa’s fleet renewal is part of an overhaul initiated under Chief Executive Officer Christoph Franz, who announced his surprise departure this week to join Swiss drug maker Roche Holding AG next year. Lufthansa already unveiled the purchase of new narrow-body Airbus aircraft this year, and the addition of the long-distance jets would help replace older Boeing 747-400 and Airbus A340-300 four-engine airliners that are more fuel intensive."

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With that being stated and commonality of fleet thrown aside, Airbus keeps its front office perch near Lufthansa. Meanwhile Boeing has made a significant in-road into the European Market. Talking heads will interpret the order as a trend towards competitive bidding, and market adjustments for Lufthansa's new upcoming Inventory. I had hoped Boeing would have made a clean sweep of product line ordering, but that was not to be, since Lufthansa has a already strong order book with Airbus. 25 A-350 is respectable, but still opens the door for Boeing to make a case later, as wait time decreases for new 787 orders for all models. Airbus still needs to prove out the A-350 under market conditions. Airbus has taken a lower road in its technology approach and expects few glitches and set back during introduction of its models. The mid stretch in development may favor Airbus in the Markets as it may not experience those types of set back Boeing has for the last five years. If Boeing continues refining the 787 line and develops the new 777-X line built on lessons learned, it will win the long developmental race into 2030. 

The 787 has more over arching and robust technological advances than the A-350. It has just finished the critical period of proving its quantum leap through commercial flight. Glitches are diminishing with smaller scale and severity. The 787-9 test flight is the promised execution of a plan on time, where the 787 -8 promises stumbled for 5 years since 2007. The -10  will fold into the Boeing market with a solid suite of aircraft for every operation in passenger and cargo service. 

Lufthansa  appears to have held back on ordering  more  Airbus types and went for a game changer in the 777-X9. The expectations for the 777-X9 are phenomenal, otherwise, the A-350 1000's wouldn't have sat on the sidelines during this go around of orders. Boeing is starting to turn heads in Europe, much to Airbus' chagrin. Even though Airbus has made inroads in the American market, it appears that Boeing can and will compete in every market. The ticket paying customer's satisfaction will start purchasing the new aircraft, instead of framer loyalty, as now found at this time. Split orders are a sign that airlines really want to know who has the best airplane and services that will keep them flying.


Special Notation:

 Lufthansa is Airbus' largest customer with 19 A-380 in its fleet and many Airbus product on order and flying at this time. Its not a small thing that Boeing opened this door further as the German customer sits near its Airbus production for the giant A-380. Everybody in the know from both Boeing and Airbus, understands a sea change is coming, since Boeing is making good of its own aircraft future projections and Airbus didn't match it.

777-X Rumor Has IT, Shh Lufthansa May Order 34 -9X

I was just going down the half way when I heard this conversation between the janitor and the security guard on "coffee break", so they told me! That Lufthansa makes a play it safe order for 34,  777-9X orders and moves on 20-25 A-350's.

Warning, this could be all wet, because the janitor and the guard are good friends and they really know what's going on at Lufthansa(?).  Since, they have postponed the announce until tomorrow morning US time.

I will expect a mixed Boeing-Airbus order book.  Wouldn't it be neat if the 20-25 A-350-9's turn out to be 20-25 787-9's for commonalities sake adding to the 34, 777-X--9's, hinted at by the security guard. I don't really know, so this is a teaser for tomorrow's wake-up call.

I know Boeing has a dog in this fight and will make significant gain in the European Market place. Either way meet the game changers. It won't be the Lufthansa or the A-350-9 as a dance pair.

The 787-9, Money Shot As Boeing Stock Soars

Form: http://www.businessinsider.com/photo-new-dreamliner-flies-by-mt-rainier-2013-9  Boeing Photograph Credit

This it was I'm talking about when the word "Aviation"  is printed.

The Dash Nine

The dash Nine
Is just in time
Dash away, Dash Away,
Bring on the new sleigh

Its in time on the nine
The month number is fine
Dash away Dash away
Don't hold it at bay

Rainier, all dressed in white
Just behold the sight
Dash Away Dash Away
The picture has sway

St Nick and the sublime
As it approaches the line
Dash away, Dash away,
Build more aircraft this day

Favorite Things Part II: 787-9 Takes Off

Just finished watching the 787-9 First Flight. A very invigorating Boeing moment. Rather than posting links to the Boeing event on Newairplane .com. I will dedicate the space to impressions, the event and goings -on with the -9. However, for those who needs links, here is the main  Boeing link, so you may continue to watch 787-9 First Landing at Boeing Field.

787-9 First Flight Web Link  and tons more stuff happening today.

What Happened:

A flawless take-off to the viewing public. A happy Ray Connor,  Boeing CEO of Commercial Airplanes and thousand of employees outside cheering being outside. The thousands waited for a considerable amount of time, getting to know each other more formerly as co-workers, who seemed thrilled to take a break  from years and years  of 787 development. A big cheer was had by all in attendance. Refreshments and pastries inside the "Big Buildings". By the way the production control center has messaged supervisors that they are two hours behind schedule for the day. All Supervisors cc'd back to the production center. "Boeing has turned a significant page today. Where were you?" "Oh you didn't get the memo, sorry."

The 787-9 entrance into aviation was rather quiet, "blame the engines". Can't wait for the Rolls Royce 1000-C to fit under the wing and listen to the Sound of Music sitting in economy on a 787-9 RR-1000C. Hey, New Zealand Air! send me and the misses some tickets. I am not asking, I'm begging, yes really! If this ploy works comment on this blog with details. If I don't hear from you, I'll say some bad things about your neighbors across the way as if they are to blame. I'll be asking Qantas soon the same question, and you now what will happen if they don't answer, I'll blame the neighbors across the way. :)

Please know the game is afoot. Ray Connor made one reassuring statement, (paraphrased)-->  "The 787 project continues to make advancements through testing and commercial use these last 10 years. There is no other equal, planned, or in the works by competitors. The knowledge we have learned during this time, cannot be matched unless going through the same process. He alluded to the competitor's concept of not having the same technology or any edge that even approaches the 787 family of aircraft. That's as bold as I've heard from Boeing, when talking like he was proud as Airbus', John Leahy.

He wasn't rude, he was proud, and it showed. Airbus, be very afraid. Boeing has your number, and is now dialing up the 777-X and the 787-10. A five card Royal Flush with an all-in bet in the "Wide Body" market. Airbus can't change its tecnology and expertise this late in the game on its A-350. Enjoy the ride on either the Boeing or Airbus.

Favorite Things Part I Bombardier C Series Flies

Bombardier's C series reaches a milestone at 12,500 feet  o

Bombardier commercial president Mike Arcamone said the cost of the C Series has reached $3.9 billion (U.S.) - $500 million more than planned. “Our target has always been to stay below $4-billion,” he said. Later, a Bombardier official acknowledged that $3.9 billion was the most up-to-date figure, but said the hike is explained by a change in accounting rules, not by unforeseen expenses.

The timing of the plane’s entry into service is also uncertain. Bombardier thinks it will be able to deliver its first C Series after it completes 2,400 hours of flight tests over 12 months. “It is an aggressive flight testing program,” acknowledged Guy Hachey, president of Bombardier Aerospace.

Boeing 787-9 First Fight Website  Use it as if you want to see all the action tomorrow.

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Boeing 777-X May Mark, The Lufthansa Spot On The Airline Map

The much anticipated wide body order on the European market awaits Boeing, Airbus and Lufthansa. Its a closely held secret on how this is played out by members of the Lufthansa's inner circle. The few snippets exposes a strong "consideration"  for being a launch customer for the 777-X family of aircraft for a 2019-2020 its entry into service.  Most people think an Arab State will have that honor in November. However, it maybe a deal maker maker for Lufthansa could be made as a "European Launch Customer", through the auspicious occasion of Lufthansa's Big Wide Body Order!

Article of Note:

Is Lufthansa Putting Boeing and Airbus on Equal Footing?

Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKF.PK) has decided to split an order for 50 wide-body aircrafts between Airbus SAS and Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) according to individuals close to the matter, Bloomberg reports. A person with knowledge of the deal also told the publication that the purchase has a potential list price of at least $14 billion.

If the purchase proceeds as reported, Lufthansa will become the first buyer of Boeing’s 777X, which are due to fly by the end of the decade. According to Bloomberg, the 777, which is the largest twin-engine airliner, will offer engines of the X variant along with the largest wings ever on a Boeing plane in order to improve performance."

The insider suggestions are running, well... insightful (wild) and vague. The only interpretation that can be drawn is Lufthansa is going to make a market impacting announcement for all concerned, adding impact to its own European competitors in the travel arena.. The headline suggest "equal footing". What could than mean? If you analyze the Lufthansa current inventory of aircraft. 

(Also, See Lftndrag Link below for Lufthansa Airbus Lopsided inventory) 

Big Order On The Lufthansa Front All Quiet For The Framers.

Lopsided inventory towards Airbus means equality in the inventory book, and could make for a big Boeing win of "the equal footing", fame. The 14 billion US dollar number also could allow room for the 777-X order of 10 777-8 or 9' each. Depending what happens in Doha either the orders will follow a -8 or -9 pattern, and Lufthansa may choose what model for an opening as it plies for launch customer status ,based on what the "others" are ordering. A sea change order is coming! Its A Sea Shifting Double Deal (SSDD) from Lufthansa.. I can`t predict the outcome only than its a market shaker and mover.. 

Once again with little information (low information voter), I will put on my Sherlock Holmes Hat and make a deduction from the clues at hand.. Equality means a big Boeing win on old Inventory. Equality for Airbus is a 50-50 split order as a  production hedge for its new A-350. Equality for Lufthansa is its 747-8I infusion of 787 commonality, and it likes what it sees with the 8I. Lufthansa would like commonality either with Airbus or Boeing inventory. They like what they have in the 747 and would like more of the same for all its wide body. The A330  needs renewal with the 787-8,9,or 10. The big 747 body from Boeing is working well, After all is was stated by the Lufthansa head CEO that teething problems is not a concern since many of those issues disappear on successful aircraft.. All airplanes, after-all, young and old,  continue to replace failing parts and systems on a daily basis. The 787 has superior management systems and have pats waiting before a model lands

However, the Boeing 787 program has the most redundant and sophisticated internal monitoring system in an airline. Its been flying for two years and is emerging as what it was promised to be in the first place.. Move over A-330. The 777-X family will exceed all expectations and make the A-350 family irrelevant for commonalities sake.

Now you know I'm all in for Boeing, one more time. I can't help it, its in my DNA.. But I'm trying to remain objective  just as the Lufthansa execs.. A change decision has been made, they had a sampler with the 747-8I, and they know Boeing's family of aircraft stand behind that pilot's front display. From the 737 Max through to the 8I, Boeing made the commonality change 10 years ago in a conference room, and its taken these ten years to bring the whole family of aircraft forward. Now Lufthansa is ready to start ordering Boeing in numbers as the best aircraft.

After all if Airbus has the order, John Leahy would be crowing, Boeing remains silent as they usually do until the customer announces. Airbus silence is really loud at this time.

Bombardier,787 -9's, Lufthansa: Are A Few Of My Favorite Things

Sound of Music had its mojo moments in the Alps with the singing of Julie Andrews. Opening this blog up with that bench mark song "A few of My Favorite Things"

• September 16, 2013 Bombardier C Series First Flight
• September 17, 2013 the 787-9 may take flight at Paine field.
• September 18, 2013 Lufthansa Takes Flight with a Big Order.

If you haven't figured out by now I like cheese served with this blog. With Alps in the background and German routes at stake you can't wonder at the Lufthansa business intent. If Boeing solves the 787-8's "teething problems" , then its solved the -9 and -10's teething problems. If Airbus has not delivered the A-350 yet what "teething problems awaits it customers already on the Airbus order book? The only Boeing Jet in question is the 777-X program. That answer comes later this fall at the Arab Airplane summit/Air Show. Lufthansa is about to make heads turn either way, with Boeing and Airbus on the 18th.

On Tuesday, the 17th, the 787-9 takes flight with all the teething problems gifted to the -8. It will fly when everything is ready, including the weather. Tuesday is the optimal date for program readiness, but we'll see  if everything cooperates for first flight.


Finally, a mention for Bombardier, I like its ATV,rode 'em wild and have flown on its regional jets without mishap. The C series is on for Monday  not to upstage Tuesday or Wednesday. I hope all goes well for the C-series. Bombardier is North America's answer to Brazilian Aviation interest.

Mike Sinnett, The Blackberry Maestro of the 787

Required reading for this feature:

787 Tests The Mettle of Boeing's Chief Engineer

Introduction for reading assignment:

Steve Creedy:  The Australian

September 13, 2013 12:00AM

FORMER Boeing 787 chief project engineer Mike Sinnett's Black Berry became the stuff of aviation legend after it was revealed it went off every time a Boeing 787 fault developed anywhere in the world.

Nor was it just faults. Any maintenance message that led to a flight-deck status advisory, caution or warning message, as well as take-off and landing data, flooded through the phone.

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LiftnDrag follow-up:

Mike Sinnett keeps the 787 Orchestra playing while the audience shuffles in its seats. He does this with his Blackberry. Perfection, is the luxury found in the madness of going after the impossible, which accompanies the sound of success, and is validated from echos of prolonged ovation. The 787 concept has entered its last movement. A Virtuoso performance for those who stand by the Chief Engineer, those workers and customers alike really appreciating the ecstasy of flight found out as it emerges  from all that  agony . The article pretty much captures the behind the scenes stresses and toil from the top down of a driven man and a driven program. It isn't easy work, but its a life time reward of an aviator, engineers and dedicated human being doing what he loves. Making his Opus come alive, with the 787.  Bravo Mike!

ANA Answers Airbus In April 2014

Time is not a commodity in the Market place, but timing is everything. for ANA. That is one reason ANA is talking to Airbus. Boeing has an 80% market share in Japan and will depend  on that relationship for keeping its footprint firmly in the Japan market on track. Airbus sees a major defeat of Boeing. if it can woo ANA away from Boeing while picking this time, and this moment to step in on Boeing's turf. Airbus is making a strong effort while ANA using the "teething problems" (delays and glitches to send a strong message that Boeing harmed the relationship and damaged the ANA business reputation. Airbus steps up by making a strong attack on Boeing in regard  to Boeing's strongest weakness', 787 reliability and time. What does Airbus bring to the table:?

• Airbus gives ANA preferred status as a customer, relating to pricing and delivery
• Airbus gives ANA similar performance of high tech Aircraft that may compete
• Airbus has a commonality plans for ANA pilot training and ground crews.
• Airbus promise of no "teething" issues, (TBD) Lower tech approach is the bluff
• Airbus has removed wait time risk in delivery aircraft of lower tech aircraft is more reliable
• Airbus will "always", beat Boeing's offering and ANA becomes an Airbus  launcher
• Airbus has a buy 10 get one free coupon punch card for preferred customers
• Airbus has an XWB that iis wider than anything built... "well its just wider".
• Airbus is running out of talking points, and timely is mentioned, and no delays and cheaper  and...

After 10 months of eating Sushi in Japan, Boeing hasn't stopped power pointing its way into oblivion and beyond. Boeing knows its strong relationship  was damaged over delays, mishaps and "teething" issues. Boeing's commodity of time is lost (spent) making a two generation leap on the 787, where Airbus only took a one generation leap on the A-350 plastic paneled model. Barrel vs Panels is in a contested mode, as the one feature that Airbus smuggling refers to, when comparing aircraft. Since the Ethiopian Fire, Boeing has been  developing a modular repair protocol, forcing Boeing several years in advance of what it had anticipated for needing a solution. Even though several ideas were manufactured in its thinking a long time ago, Ethiopian fire was just a premature nightmare.

This is what concerns ANA, as Airbus would contest its panel solution is best suited for the rigors of its usage and repair work. Please note at this time, no Airbus is in use and had not had an actual repair drill on body repair. Comparing  that with Boeing's level of damage (unless Airbus has unpublished documents demonstrating a repair to the level of damage),  as exhibited by  Ethiopian Airline in London. The point is, ANA realizes the Boeing barrel design repair is a dynamic and fluid situation as in each case, is different. Barrel repair involves many different systems and structural points from case to case. Airbus would want to tell ANA, that is exactly our point we can fix anything, anywhere, and at "Any TIME". Even though they don't know the condition or extent of the damage. A bold claim if mentioned to ANA, but since its aircraft hasn't been delivered in the real world  yet, or put into service, it  is a reasonable sounding claim during a second helping of Sushi.

Now onto the Boeing's fight card of bullet points from the history files of 787:

• Boeing reminds ANA of its most important relationship because it is really, important!
• Boeing is has a more efficient and higher tech two generational leap in aircraft
• Boeing acknowledges the Time commodity, but strangely enough, time heals all
• Boeing reminds ANA that it has delivered on its promise; 20% fuel, 30% service(Delta)
• Boeing describes the A-350 as being one generation behind the 787
• Boeing has retired most of, or if at least, two generations of risks
• Boeing listens,, and will respond, to all questions and concerns,
• Boeing sees ANA as not a preferred customer but a valued partner
• Boeing demonstrate value is better than the lowest price, even if  ANA uses a sales punch card with Airbus.

The imagined talking points from Boeing doesn't stress technology and performance issues as better than Airbus, since ANA already has the facts from its own operations. Boeing needs to address ANA on eliminating the Time commodity of delay from its past delay over use, as ANA makes its money not from mishaps and delays, but from timeliness and reliability. If the 787 is more reliable than what Airbus  claims on its unproven aircraft, then Boeing gets a reprieve. It was a leap of faith that ANA took on, when it signed on as launch customer for Boeing. It was a trusted and valued partnership. Boeing's trust component is tested and in some cases the proof of concept failed with its batteries, since it did not take into considerations the touchy risks involved with the Lithium-Ion system during the onset. It was an oversight on redesign for electrical inputs, spiking and protection. ANA plans were disrupted  by delays, without a real price tag associated for those delays. You can quantify opportunity loss, ticket sales and fleet changes, but cannot quantify ANA's reputation and image as a most reliable airline. A great amount of intrinsic value was cast overboard during the shut-downs. ANA may think, Airbus is at our door and happy to assist Boeing over that same edge. As in any relationship the formative years can have a rocky moments, but a fabulous finish remains for ANA, and should not cut bait on this adventure but still fish with Boeing.

The deal is about restored trust, and proving promises other than the cash value, even though cash is the opening calling card. Airbus is out to prove its commercially untested reliability of its craft is "the selling point", for the A-350. Additionally, throwing its reputation forward, as a "more solid framer", onto the wood pile before any match is lite for the fire. Boeing must prove a partnership in the 787 venture existed as ANA too assumed great risk in advance as launch customer, and is a part of making this the greatest airplane ever made to date. Something ANA should consider is its own valued status in the process and should not be dumped for an Airbus offer, unless It is willing to walk away with an un-invested suitor, in place of its standing partnership with Boeing. The A-350 is a knock--off not reaching ANA's standard, which it had established by partnering with Boeing with the 787. The grass is not always greener with the next flirting suitor. April is a long time away for ANA's considerations, but it becomes an awkward moment for Boeing which will take some TIME! ANA must consider the ill affect of two timing its partner as a successful relationship. ANA is not like some other some cheap mixed fleet operators in the wide body market.

The real story behind this, is not about the 787, but the 787 story is used by Airbus is telling ANA, the old saying, "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"! ANA's 787 experience can't repeat itself when it comes to the 777-X. This is whole sequence is about stealing a 777X order from Boeing because Airbus is really fearful that the 777 and is spreading that fear to ANA shouting out the 787 problem's with glee reminding them don't get burned again with a new airplane, when Airbus has a new one that hasn't yet gone to market yet. You see, its simple, Buy Airbus and no more Boeing problems. Come on  ANA get real!

Boeing and September Is China Month

Marketing VP from Boeing, Randy Tinseth, has spent a critical period of time this month in China. It has been written about as a reporting time to the Chinese about the future growth of aviation over the next 30 years

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Boeing Increases Long Term Forecast for China's Commercial Aircraft Market

However, this visit wasn't about laser pointers and big screens in front of eager viewers want to hear about China's next 30 years. It was about sales to China and how Boeing could help fill the impending void of aircraft for China, once it realizes the calamity of no airplanes that will befall China. The next 30 years?, someone scribbles in good Mandarin or maybe some English. Randy goes on, "do you realize how fast thirty years can go by when waiting in-line for your 787's. China Southern, Xi amen, and Hainan to name a few, know. By next year Airbus will have a really long  line and Boeing's production will peak on the 787, opening up some near term production slots as the -9's start rolling out the doors. The backlog is a 50/50 split at this time between the 787-8's and the -9's. The -8 momentum tilts towards a shorter wait line for the next year as ten a month are produced and the -9 is barely coasting out the door. Boeing will see in 2014 it cant start putting sales speak to customers about the shrinking 787-8 Queue and strong productivity against an undelivered A-350.

Its not that demand will hit in 30 years, its now that demand is building and China has to be in the right place at the right time to capture an advantage. Any questions? Any orders? Yes, you in the middle row with hand up?"

A man from EVA posses an important thought.

EVA Air studying 787-10 and 777X, aiming to be launch customer for 777X in 2019

CAPA > Aviation News > EVA Air studying 787-10 and 777X, aiming to be launch customer for 777X in 2019

4-Sep-2013 4:05 PM

EVA Air chairman Chang Kuo-wei said the carrier is currently studying the Boeing 787-10 and 777X, adding it plans to become the the launch customer for the 777X in 2019. Mr Chang, as reported by CNyes.comi, also said the carrier is aiming to increase its 777-300ER fleet to 35 aircraft. EVA Air plans to acquire seven 777-300ERs between Jun-2013 and Jun-2016, increasing its fleet of the aircraft to 22. The carrier also plans to 777Fs to replace its 747-400Fs

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Randy comes back with due respect and honor, "please see me after the symposium on 30 years growth plans for China, wait , I'll come see you".

So goes the imaginary dialog from China. There are other announcement in the works. It sounds like the the -10's and the -X twins are in play. Being a launch customer for a model is very important to China. This won't be the last clue thrown out of what's in play. The Arabian Gulf is strongly connected to Boeing's future as well. Could China usurp  the Arabian peninsula from QATAR as a launch customer on the 777's this fall? I don't think so.

However, Boeing will be the auctioneer during a robust auction with a crowded room. The orders will come bouncing of the walls when the bidding wars begin from China as they realize 30 years is right now.

China is getting ready to come out and play in the airplane wars and will want to get on board with a strong representation and fanfare, but the Gulf states have a big head start for that honor of launch customer. Its more in the order for a -10 customer launching for China, but the 777 order book is going to get interesting, as an ordering staple for Boeing's sales team, with the China market for the next 30 years. EVA certainly leads the way for China and the Twin  X's.