Thursday, August 22, 2013

Big Order On The Lufthansa Front All Quiet For The Framers..

Nobody is talking about a 50 aircraft 10 billion dollar deal Lufthansa is crafting for its equipment enhancements. Because it has a predominant Airbus portfolio, it is interesting to watch this order. There are Boeing Aircraft in the stable. Particularly the 747-8i.  A harbinger of openness for mixed fleet and follow-on commonalities. The 787-10 has a relative short backlog for Boeing compared to the Airbus family of aircraft for the A-350, which has not rolled out to market as of yet, giving Boeing breathing room on the time line of delivery and providing, Lufthansa time to market after next months announcements.

Lufthansa could build its order on the 787 family of aircraft as some slots could come available in each 787 model. Lufthansa could also replace A-330 with the 787 -800 in the next five years. They may see an opening for 2017 delivery time on 787 as well as 787-9's by then. Five years of planning is consistent with that large of an order locking in at 2013 prices and positioning itself for an inflationary future value on money. Once again the Boeing glitches are starting to fade, and Airbus has not sailed in that storm with its A-350. The hand is weighted in Airbus's future potential. But in 5 years its the A-330 and A-340 that will be a second tier aircraft. Lufthansa inventory will have aged its Airbus and Boeing inventory making this order strategically  significant. It definitely points to Lufthansa intent. Refer to the chart below of wide body inventory for Lufthansa.

Widebody Jets

Economy class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-300 (333) V131-32.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A330-300 (333) V231-32.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V13217.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V232.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V332.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V431-3217.3 - 19.3StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V131.017.0StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V23117StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A380-800 (388)31.017.0StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V131.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V231.017.5StandardShared TVNoneAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-8 (748) V13118.5StandardPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V23118.5StandardPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes

Business class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-300 (333) V164.020.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A330-300 (333) V257-60.020.0Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V157-6019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V257-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V357-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V457-6020Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V157-60.020.0Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V257-6020Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A380-800 (388)57-60.019.6Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V157-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V257-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-8 (748) V17819.7-26.4Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V27819.7-26.4Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes

First class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-300 (333) V185.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A330-300 (333) V285.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V18521Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V285.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-600 (346) V185.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V28521Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A380-800 (388)90-92.031.5Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V190-92.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V290-92.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-8 (748) V18531.5Open SuitePersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V28531.5

Open SuitePersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes

Analyze this wide body inventory and you could see how the A-330, A-340 inventory may retire with the 787 family coming while Airbus perfects its offering not even guaranteeing if could beat the 787. If Boeing continues with solid performance during this next month, a bird in hand axiom comes true that its worth more than two Airbus' A-350 in the field. Boeing threats are the 787-8,-9,-10 and most importantly the 777-X (-8,-9). The big clue is the numbers game. $Ten billion a rough number, fits right in at the 787 200 million list price for 50 aircraft depending on the order mix. My order book on ten billion go as follows: 15 787-8, 15 787-9, and 10 787-10's. Leaving 10 for the 777-X topping off the order at 10.5 billion for 50 Boeing. This is a fleet renewal order with the aircraft and the best aircraft.

 I can't get inside Lufthansa's head about this 50 plane order, but I do know Boeing's foot is in the door while Airbus is still seated in the main office. Unless Boeing has made its case through its customers who really like the 787 and are beating the socks of Airbus product through consumer polling found in travel magazines. Boeing is being rediscovered and people really like the ride.


Reference Article: 

Lufthansa to place $10 billion plane order next month - sources