Big Order On The Lufthansa Front All Quiet For The Framers..

Nobody is talking about a 50 aircraft 10 billion dollar deal Lufthansa is crafting for its equipment enhancements. Because it has a predominant Airbus portfolio, it is interesting to watch this order. There are Boeing Aircraft in the stable. Particularly the 747-8i.  A harbinger of openness for mixed fleet and follow-on commonalities. The 787-10 has a relative short backlog for Boeing compared to the Airbus family of aircraft for the A-350, which has not rolled out to market as of yet, giving Boeing breathing room on the time line of delivery and providing, Lufthansa time to market after next months announcements.

Lufthansa could build its order on the 787 family of aircraft as some slots could come available in each 787 model. Lufthansa could also replace A-330 with the 787 -800 in the next five years. They may see an opening for 2017 delivery time on 787 as well as 787-9's by then. Five years of planning is consistent with that large of an order locking in at 2013 prices and positioning itself for an inflationary future value on money. Once again the Boeing glitches are starting to fade, and Airbus has not sailed in that storm with its A-350. The hand is weighted in Airbus's future potential. But in 5 years its the A-330 and A-340 that will be a second tier aircraft. Lufthansa inventory will have aged its Airbus and Boeing inventory making this order strategically  significant. It definitely points to Lufthansa intent. Refer to the chart below of wide body inventory for Lufthansa.

Widebody Jets

Economy class

Aircraft with seatmap	Seat Pitch	Seat Width	Seat Type	Video Type	Laptop Power	Power Type	Wi-Fi
Airbus A330-300 (333) V1	31-32.0	17.5	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Airbus A330-300 (333) V2	31-32.0	17.5	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-300 (343) V1	32	17.5	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	Yes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V2	32.0	17.5	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	Yes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V3	32.0	17.5	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-300 (343) V4	31-32	17.3 - 19.3	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-600 (346) V1	31.0	17.0	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-600 (346) V2	31	17	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Airbus A380-800 (388)	31.0	17.0	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-400 (744) V1	31.0	17.5	Standard	Personal TV	None	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-400 (744) V2	31.0	17.5	Standard	Shared TV	None	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-8 (748) V1	31	18.5	Standard	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V2	31	18.5	Standard	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes

Business class

Aircraft with seatmap	Seat Pitch	Seat Width	Seat Type	Video Type	Laptop Power	Power Type	Wi-Fi
Airbus A330-300 (333) V1	64.0	20.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A330-300 (333) V2	57-60.0	20.0	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-300 (343) V1	57-60	19.7	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V2	57-60.0	19.7	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V3	57-60.0	19.7	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-300 (343) V4	57-60	20	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-600 (346) V1	57-60.0	20.0	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-600 (346) V2	57-60	20	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A380-800 (388)	57-60.0	19.6	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-400 (744) V1	57-60.0	19.7	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-400 (744) V2	57-60.0	19.7	Angle Lie Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-8 (748) V1	78	19.7-26.4	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V2	78	19.7-26.4	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes

First class

Aircraft with seatmap	Seat Pitch	Seat Width	Seat Type	Video Type	Laptop Power	Power Type	Wi-Fi
Airbus A330-300 (333) V1	85.0	21.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A330-300 (333) V2	85.0	21.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-300 (343) V1	85	21	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V2	85.0	21.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Airbus A340-600 (346) V1	85.0	21.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A340-600 (346) V2	85	21	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Airbus A380-800 (388)	90-92.0	31.5	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-400 (744) V1	90-92.0	21.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-400 (744) V2	90-92.0	21.0	Lie-Flat	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	No
Boeing 747-8 (748) V1	85	31.5	Open Suite	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V2	85	31.5	Open Suite	Personal TV	All Seats	AC Power	Yes

Analyze this wide body inventory and you could see how the A-330, A-340 inventory may retire with the 787 family coming while Airbus perfects its offering not even guaranteeing if could beat the 787. If Boeing continues with solid performance during this next month, a bird in hand axiom comes true that its worth more than two Airbus' A-350 in the field. Boeing threats are the 787-8,-9,-10 and most importantly the 777-X (-8,-9). The big clue is the numbers game. $Ten billion a rough number, fits right in at the 787 200 million list price for 50 aircraft depending on the order mix. My order book on ten billion go as follows: 15 787-8, 15 787-9, and 10 787-10's. Leaving 10 for the 777-X topping off the order at 10.5 billion for 50 Boeing. This is a fleet renewal order with the aircraft and the best aircraft.

 I can't get inside Lufthansa's head about this 50 plane order, but I do know Boeing's foot is in the door while Airbus is still seated in the main office. Unless Boeing has made its case through its customers who really like the 787 and are beating the socks of Airbus product through consumer polling found in travel magazines. Boeing is being rediscovered and people really like the ride.

Reference Article: 

Lufthansa to place $10 billion plane order next month - sources

The Boeing Manufacturing Spider Is Growing More Legs For The 777X

Just a few days ago it was noted on how Boeing will quickly implement its NW footprint for the manufacturer of its Legacy 777-X in the upcoming few years. Going over seas could take added time for a manufacturing role out and a delegation of inside capabilities for new technology could be lost to supplying  partners. The risk of out sourcing proprietary design for outside build partners is high.  At some point one may ask if Boeing can indeed build an aircraft any longer in a stand alone effort  in the Pacific Northwest.  That ship has sailed, but maintaining the ability of having major parts and pieces keeps Boeing building aircraft from engineering clear through the role out of an aircraft without it wondering how an overseas calamity breaking out in different parts of the world. Sinking the whole project into oblivion.

Boeing is entertaining the idea of expanding its footprint at home in Everett, and the north  end of the I-5 corridor. An article by the HeraldNet.com has echoed a recent blog on LiftnDrag by reporting how the local Government are greasing the wheels for Boeing, by fast tracking the permit process for building facilities on, around, and adjacent to Paine Field. This can be done in a few weeks rather than a few years. The County  of Snohomish  isn't doing this on its own councils idea of good neighbors to Boeing. But are doing it as a proposal from Boeing, of what could the county and State do in assisting Boeing in fast tracking a significant project in the next year. The County has identified significant property for Boeing that can be fast tracked into a building project. Similar to what was done in Charleston, building its giant factory in 10 months down in the low country. Snohomish County may experience a new wing factory and automated systems that will flow to the Paine area in a gigantic scale, so the lines of supply are shortened and management becomes more efficient, escorting the process to fruition.  No more avoidable snags and incompetent decision making on the 777-X. Boeing is just not building the best, but they are doing it with lessons learned from the 787 project. The short source will quickly build the infrastructure to do the job right it cannot experience 10 years of delay.

• Shorten the supply line.
• Control the manufacture base.
• Make efficient the resources that are available. Location Property and Human resource.
• Leverage what already works well
• All Efforts Relate to Time reductions and Controls.
• Outsources are localized as possible.

These are just a few items that should be considered when the 777X is given the ATO. After making these few observations please read this article and see if these concepts enumerated above hold any substance.



Fast Permits Signal Snohomish  County Is A 777X player

Boeing 787 Is Growing Up Right Before Your Eyes

Boeing is moving forward with its 787. The three phases of success is moving forward as witnessed.

Phase 1: Lame

From the very first Boeing, wrestled with its untried management concept by writing on napkins or note pads, and then outsourcing everything down to the wing nuts. A new way to build quality and safety. "Let the other guy do it", and firmly rubber stamp  "Boeing With Pride" on its vertical tail assembly.  The lame began to percolate through, by establishing a central parts tracking and outsourcing center of hundreds of people managing the "Just In Time "snags, snares and stumbles. This center watched in awe the fastener problems, delamination and errant supplier innovation.
This is the big picture of the Lame, a central center to watch the spectacle and correct it if can. "We (Boeing) track every item out-sourced, and know when its going to fail when it fails"! I say, "What"?


Phase 2: Blame

The phase Boeing is growing out of,  late in its initial delivery years, by proclaiming. "Yes those crimped wires on the location beacon was the supplier's mistake and it didn't happen on my watch, no way". Question, By the way, why did those batteries explode? Boeing doesn't know but they offer a blanket wrapped around those pesky batteries.  Boeing is forced to get overtly aggressive with its competitor, Airbus, as they try to quip and snip at Boeing from the CRFP ditch found in France. Boeing people are rapidly not taking it anymore. Beware supplier, its your turn and Boeing is upset. A whole cadre of suit types are in position with personal hand held smart phones in one hand and a TV microphone in the other hand, while having the supplier of the week in its cross hairs. You know, that group of suppliers carefully chosen from its napkin renderings way back in 2003, during a time when the "Outsource" mantra was king of the planet. This phase is rapidly coming to a close because enough Blame has gone around.

Phase 3: Same

Personal Responsibility will fly in this phase as the 787 and will soar to new heights making the "I told you so crowd"  come out in full force clear from those Big Boeing Barn doors from the Washington State and Paine Field county seat, Buildings 40-24 to 40-26, clear to Charleston's shinning shores.  Notice: First heard in print, or "The Blogworks" right here, "The 787 is a grand slam home run of epic proportion".

In spite of spring training held at the outsourced field of dreams.   The "Same" is that quality you would expect from Boeing. That same is catching-up to the blame game in a hurry. If the 787 where to collapse as a viable next best thing since sliced bread, it would have done so by 2011.  So the Same,  is the last phase of success, doing what you do best, building great airplanes with unabashed bravado. Not letting others control its destiny through its lame ideas or correcting problems with a cacophony of blaming statements. Boeing is well positioned for doing the same, making the world's best innovative and advance airplanes for the next 30 years. Bring on the Same and win this competition.

The Boeing Manufacturing Spider

Boeing maybe shifting  its manufacturing footprint for the 777-X. What if it links the Puget Sound area with short rail leads to Everett, for all large parts transit points that are within a day's ride to the Everett super factory. A continuity plan that undercuts using long shipping flights or shipping of large parts on container ship. A wing plant here and a body plant there could supply the Northwest for its legacy 777-X. Think about the possibilities with Moses lake to the East, and the secret project that is going on, just North in Anacortes, Wa. Could this new super plan show like a rail spider within the Northwest, or using docks on protected Puget Sound, eliminating  exposed transworld risks. Boeing could be containing major 777-X operations to the contiguous NW!   I know this sounds far fetched but it takes fuel, transport availability, and the world-wide mitigation of risk for making the 787 fly. This maybe an inhouse move to curb that outsource appetite on its proven 777 winner.

A eye opening article opens this discussion with this Headline:

Boeing secretly testing new automation for 777X

"Inside a boat warehouse in Anacortes, Boeing is quietly setting up tests of new advanced automation methods for building its soon-to-be-launched 777X jet. Everett has a detailed plan to build the entire jet. Another option being studied is to have sections built in Japan."

The "other study" is a plan B of transporting parts in from around the  world. Boeing wants it legacy 777 to evolve in the NW as to what it can do. Shortened lines of concept development and production capacity by anchoring in the NW. Bring subcontractors closer to home in the North West and control your secrets better, than if innovation occurs over seas. Every time an advancement happens for Boeing by others they contract with, those strides may matriculate to Airbus and others when your production model is splayed out over the world." The spin-off opportunities are hard to contain with its suppliers. Boeing would like to control only what it can control in the North West

Step one: Build a better infrastructure in the North West with its spider like connections to Everett. Wings, Bodies and other flight services could converge on the Everett super factory. Small engineered appliances and parts may airfreight throughout the world to Everett. Keep controlling the big stuff from R&D to assemblies, in a steady inflow stream from the NW region. Lesson learned almost dictate this for Boeing's business model on the 777-X. Control best what you can control by bringing it home, and leave the small stuff for you supply partners and Boeing's own flexibility. 

This legacy aircraft will stay a legacy by adhering to this mind set. The 777-X is too precious to farm out as it seeks to surprise and live up to established character as the Giant killer for the A380. "Buy two for the price of..."  well anyways buy two, and carry 800 passengers before the A380 can load its 500 passengers and fly somewhere to unload for awhile. Where two 777-X's have already taken-off with another 800 passengers going somewhere. Airbus, may think that is really annoying having these 777 passenger ships, pick its profit pockets right  front and center of the public, at the terminal near you. Getting on and off on an A-380 is so congested in its specialized 550+ passenger Jetway extension. This is not new to the A-380 frequent flyer. You know them as the "been There, seen it, done it cluster". Now lets get on the 777-X and move further around the world without thinking about what it looks like for the snobs sitting above your head. "Jack", just lay back and enjoy the "Giant Killer Ride" on the 7777-X.

If Looks Could Kill Then Buy an F-35

This old war was fought and lost by the F-32 proposal of its ungainly and non traditional looking war bird. The Generals remarked, "How can that fly, it doesn't even  look like a war fighter. Its STOVL hasn't finished landing and take-offs for the Marines. Go with the Lockheed its looks like a 20th century fighter". Wait a minute we are in the 21st century looking for George Jetson.  The $200 billion aircraft is now ranked at $700 billion to succeed its mission without any guarantees of doing what the Generals thought it would do. Let's not dwell on fishing and just cut bait on this 20th century flying parts bin. What did the generals pass on in their war bird beauty pageant?

The Boeing's X-32

I say give the Marines and Navy the   X-32 it fits the Jar head image of toughness and capability, no doubt the beauty pageant ends and the war begins. The F-35 is suited for the pretty fly-boys of the Colorado Mountains.

Boeing's Joint Fighter Blues   Supporting Link

Supporting Article:


"Hindsight is ceiling and visibility unlimited. As patience with the F-35 Lightning II continues to wear thin among almost everyone except those closest to the program — who point out that the jets are ripping through test points, in spite of all the bad headlines — Boeing engineers are griping that if DoD had picked their airplane, we wouldn’t have had all these problems. So writes Steve Wilhelm in the Puget Sound Biz Journal, who reports that hometown Boeing types say their jet,the X-32, should have won the Joint Strike Fighter competition, especially because of how well they said it handled short takeoffs and vertical landings.

The X-32 used a Harrier-style system of directed thrust nozzles for its STOVL variant, which advocates said was simpler and more reliable than Lockheed’s system. The Marines’ F-35B needs to “transform,” like a Decepticon, for takeoff and landing: Its engine nozzle rotates down, a unique lift fan behind the pilot starts up, and all manner of doors and ports and hatches need to open. All this complexity has made it tricky to get Lockheed’s concept into action as a production aircraft — although, again, service officials say they’re going at it like gangbusters — and Secretary Gates has put the F-35B on probation. If the Marines can’t get it right after two years… well… they’ll get a stern talking to. There is no alternative for the B, service officials concede, unless the Pentagon or Congressional lawmakers want to cancel it and take away the Marines’ ability to fly fast jets off big-deck amphibious ships. That’s not gonna happen.

In the meantime, Boeing’s fighter advocates can say they told us all so, even though there’s every chance the company would have had its own problems making its X-prototypes into flyable, production F-models. During the competition, Boeing never demonstrated the full capabilities of its STOVL jet in a real-world scenario — each time its B-version flew, it had been modified for safety or test reasons, operating without certain doors and panels or with its landing gear down. Lockheed, meanwhile, made aviation history by showing its F-35B could make a short takeoff, fly supersonic, and then land vertically.

We’ll never know what 10 years of development and hundreds of billions of dollars could’ve done for the X-32 — maybe it could be flying in Marine squadrons off Navy amphibious ships today. (Doubtful.) The real lesson is that even when the Defense Department sets up a program designed to save money and be efficient by using the same basic aircraft for three services… it won’t. Instead it produced a very expensive “joint” program in which only one of the participants — the Air Force — seems truly pleased with the result. And if it did produce the perfect plane for the Marines, the nature of the competition also meant that DoD couldn’t buy it.

It’s funny, though: If this contest were happening today, DoD might buy F-35As and Cs from Lockheed for the Air Force and Navy, but F-32Bs from Boeing for the Marines, given today’s strategy of spreading work around to placate defense giants and their surrogates in Congress. As it stands, Boeing will have to be satisfied with daydreaming about the one that got away."

History Is Found In The Heart Of Boeing, Everett

Boeing History Link via Boeing.com

Peruse on over to to the official link above, and read about Everett Washington and Boeing History.  You get a sense of purpose, dedication, and innovation for the last 60 years from the Everett Boeing works.  You may want to examine this article as a reflective message for the future.  What has Boeing wrought from the past, and what it is capable of doing in the future with its roots.  I only can say abandonment of Everett is not in its future. It is the, "do it right" spirit that can and will mold Boeing's future. History lessons point to adjustments and refinement of good things experienced. If it ain't broke don't fix Everett. Then play the encore Everett, with this admonition, "you didn't know you had a good thing when you had it". Everett is not just a label, its a way of expectation and exceptional-ism at aviation's roots. The string of 747,757,767,777 and 787 points to a complete portfolio of exceptional advances from Everett. Charleston becomes a needed annex within Everett's view, because the land it needs is probably under water in Puget Sound, so Charleston is that land extending the Everett purpose to the East  Coast. Charleston will become exceptional due to Everett's DNA imbued into Charleston's buildings and flight line.

Retro Fitting The 737 NG vs. The Max

Scimitar Winglets are a Retrofit Of The Max's Advanced Winglets 

Awhile back a blog was presented quoting O'Leary, Ryan Air's sentiment relating to purchasing the Max. One Man's Rubbish Is Another Man's Feast(updated).

Now a clearer picture emerges. Is it possible to retrofit an NG to come closer to the Max? The article link, at the top suggest this possibility. I am not naive to think you can make a silk purse purse out of, well... an NG. However, you can dress it up in white tie, old style, and take it to market.  The scimitar vs the Advanced winglets looks the part, but that is only the tip of the Iceberg, sorry I couldn't resist the metaphor. The Max has so much more after the wingtips, but the NG can cut the fuel margin in a meaningful way with those retro fitted scimitars.

Scimitar for NG

Advanced Winglets For Max

The after market retro-fits can bridge a small gap stretched out by the Max. However, that can only go so far. Boeing is striving for commonalities for its over-all family of aircraft; as customers like promoting it crews, maintenance and staff from model to model with little as possible retraining. They prefer to train operations as an upgrade process, rather than a do-over process. The do-overs situation currently exist with Boeing. The good news: the Max will look and feel like a 787 plane. The airline teams will have familiarity from the Max to the 747 line of aircraft as the 777 will fly like a 787 and the 737 Max will have orientation towards a 787, like its interface of controls, with picture perfect 787 like commonalities. The NG will remain an old school orientation of the 737.  Ryan only flies the 737 NG, and does not need those advanced commonalities added from model to up-sized models, so stick on those add-on scimitars, and gain the efficiency. "We don't need (no) stinking commonalities"! Ryan Air only flies the NG with better economics.  End of Business Plan!

I now see clearer what O'Leary plans are, Ryan Air is going to go the "upgrade route" with his NG and bridge the operational cost advantage of the Max with a lower upfront capital investment for its new NG's, and any new innovations that would enhance the NG's performance. Ryan Air will stay competitive for a long while with that strategy of not going all-in with new Max's. At some point when the teething woes of the Max works out, a fleet replacement order will be up for grabs between Airbus and Boeing, with Boeing having the inside tract for ordering Max. The low cost purchase advantage the NG has, should milk itself out in the next ten years where the production wait time for MAX will open spots for a Ryan Air to jump in. The clues are available concerning Ryan Air's secret strategy of using lower capital investments as part of its over-all cost of operations.

Instead of paying a smaller fuel bill by flying the Max, it will pay a smaller monthly interest cost on its capitalization of equipment, by buying the NG's at severe discounts. Instead of adding on benefits of technology with multi-model commonality (which increases purchase cost and monthly service interest), it does not need for its operations. It keeps its maintenance, training, and operations, leaned out. The NG will be viable and operationally competitive over the next 10-12 years by managing its bottom line through investment controls and depreciation rather than having lower fuel bills and technology changes affecting the bottom line through unknown risks. 

This is a very unique approach as is Mr. O'Leary is a unique CEO. The owners/competitors using the Max, must offset its incidences of teething risks free from its own operational mistakes with significantly improved operations costs that will pay for the increased capitalization cost of money when buying the Max.  Ryan Air avoids Max interest when buying the NG. Instead of the Max, Ryan Air strategy tries to avoid spending on things they don't need such as Boeing's commonality advancements for its family of aircraft. So O'Leary's rubbish are things he doesn't want or need at this time. He will buy the Max when its advancements costs are paid for by other customers. O'Leary then will pull the Max out of his Rubbish bin and fly on.

I guess I like O'Leary after-all, he makes me think and laugh at the same time.