Thomson/TUI Airways Is Doing It For Everybody

A 787-8 can hold 291 passengers including 47 seats with extended seat pitch and 244 seats with respectable room. This one is for everybody who wants to see extra daylight year around on sunny beaches, in one shot off the airport runway, and one shot to land in paradise. No layovers, plane changing, and extra seat assignment on another airplane but just pure travel experience. Here is the preliminary sheet for the July 8th, flight to Florida and Cancun.

The seating Map for Everybody (291)

Put aboard an attractive British TV Star and fill the seats.

 Alesha Dixon Show how the 787 Works

Ship's captain ... Dixon takes a seat in the Dreamliner cockpit

Read more:

 http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/5003212/hostess-Dixon-on-Boeing-Dreamliner.html#ixzz2YVUK0aOF

The Thomson Airways Dreamliner carries 291 passengers, with 47 in Premium Club class in a 2-3-2 configuration (A,C - D,E,F - G,J) with a 38” seat pitch - the same as most scheduled airlines' premium economy cabin.

Unless unavoidable, we would choose not to sit in any seat labelled E. Others to possibly avoid are seats 7 E and F, which look a little close to the toilet and will have little or no view from the windows. 

To see what we mean, click here.

All seats have individual nine-inch touch-screen Panasonic IFE systems offering eight films on each flight, seven TV channels, 10 music options and 10 games.

Thomson Airways launches long-haul 787 operations

“The extended flying range of the Dreamliner also unlocks a host of new and exciting holiday options for our customers, increasing the range of long-haul destinations available with Thomson Airways to include Thailand, Mauritius and Puerto Vallarta,” MD Chris Browne said.

Thomson plans to operate its 787s from East Midlands, Glasgow, London Gatwick and Manchester airports, serving Orlando, Fla. and Cancun, Mexico. It is also adding Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic from summer 2014."

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The 777-200 Has A Serious Episode (Important Update)

First of all my sympathies are for the passengers and crew who were on Asiana's flight 214, that crash landed in SFO this last weekend. Two people died, teenage young women from China. Many were injured from bruising to serious conditions, as in paralysis and internal injuries. With that in mind, this is a respectful and serious offering touching on what is known or unknown about the incident. No conclusion or blame can be assigned until a thorough investigation is completed and professionals studying this case summarises findings and recommendations of this incidence.



This summary report looks at what has been reported or quoted from the press reports and briefings. Most early reports indicate no mechanical issue arose on final approach. Here are some issues that will be answered at the end of the NTSB efforts to find the root cause of a mishap: There will be thousands of checks and hundreds of reports isolating the cause of this incident.

Nothing is off the table from air worthiness, to airplane operations by crew and airport.

My short list would include these general areas under examination:

• Weather conditions and wind inputs on the aircraft, on a clear day.
• Airport  reporting systems and control tower communications.
• Pilot information onboard the aircraft before the tail strike.
• Pilot performance during and at the end of the flight.
• The Flight, final line of approach prior to impact.
• Airspeed on final approach
• Airframe worthiness and systems
• Airplane weight at end of flight.

1st Update:  Pilot in training crashed the 777-200 on 43 hours of practice.

Credit: Airchive.com clink on link above.

"July 7 – 9:45PM EDT Update

Reuters is reporting that the pilot in charge during the Asian flight 214 landing was in training on the 777, with only 43 hours on the twin. It was his first 777 flight into SFO, but the pilot Lee Kang-Kook had 9,793 hours of flight experience, including on the 747 and into SFO. The co-pilot  during the landing had 3,220 hours of flight experience on the 777 and 12,387 hours of flight time. Also, Asiana’s CEO said on Saturday that he doesn’t believe the 777 suffered from mechanical failure, but didn’t speculate on whether crew error was to blame. More from Reuters here.

July 7 – 7:46PM EDT Update

“The New York Times” reports data collected by FlightAware suggested the plane was descending more than four times faster than normal shortly before it crashed. At 800 feet over San Francisco Bay, the plane was descending at 4,000 feet a minute. This is 5 times faster then the normal approach descent of 600 to 800 feet a minute at that altitude. Flight aware data indicated that at 100 feet above the water, the plane was descending at more than 270 feet a minute when it should have been slowing to a rate of a few feet per second. View the data from Flight Aware here."

The list would continue on until everything is examined on this aircraft, whether it was damaged or intact going through the countless check-off items. How did this heavy come down and was it below the line of approach over the water before impact?

The answer to that last question is emerging, even some suggesting the angle of descent was extremely steep and then flying low on final approach compared to other aircraft landing at SFO. The pilot at the controls revved  the motors just 1-1/2 seconds before tail strike, reacting cogently to the situation, as though the pilot was in a startled state with new information, his actions acknowledging he was flying too low and too slow right before impact. Could pilot depth perception been slighted on a long trip over the Pacific, and reliance on manual and visual information made the final approach risky? Since a system was down and not used at the airport for final approaches, using descent angle alignment, the pilot has to rely more on flying skills and acumen to land the aircraft rather than data. Everything is happening so fast at the runway height after flying so high and long as if in slow motion. A landing in real time is slower in approach but happening so much faster to the senses, than flying at 40,000 ft and 550 kts for 12 hours.

It seems to be a difficult situation not having additional information alerting the pilot that the aircraft descent is out of shape for landing. Striking the rock wall at sea level, a 1,000 feet short of usual skid marks for landing, is a definite sign pilot information was missing or perception was impaired.

Since no investigative reports are posted yet, and it would be foolish to post any conclusion at this time. By parsing through statements, I am hearing how well the structural aircraft did on the runway, how well the emergency team performed, but not word on what the pilots had to say. It isn't a good sign from the pilot perspective that a statement is missing. Only statements from passengers, who are the victims, and doctors or emergency people. The manufacturer, Boeing is smart to hit the mute button at this time, until solid evidence and findings are concluded. The pilots are told by HQ to keep mouths shut until the investigation works through.

Remember Captain "Sully", Miracle On The Hudson.  He was on every talk show after that crash. A hero America needed with the other stuff going on in the world at that time.  Not even a picture of the Asiana flight crew, other than a mention of their names, and how many thousands of hours that they have flown. Who was flying at the time of the crash? No name has come out only that he tried to abort the landing before crashing. If the pilot had died in this mishap we would have heard the name on day one. Asiana is taking a reclusive position as the investigation begins. I believe with the little information coming forth of flying too slow of target speed for landing and no mention of the pilot, the ending is not a good one for the company or the pilot at this point in time.



Points to ponder.

• Who was flying? Not yet reported!
• It has been documented: 214 was below target speed at rock wall and then striking the rocks, shearing the tail off just feet above the water, where it was short by a 1,000 feet  of the target landing spot on the runway!
• Attempted aborted landing that failed in the last seconds before strike!
• Observations of 777 coming in low, just off the water by passengers and various people on the ground!

Aviation is also finding what went right:

• The aircraft structure, 
• emergency response 
• and flight crew passenger assistance.

CH-47 Troop Withdrawal On The Side Of Mountain

Saturday Night At The Movies

The Clip of this troop extraction is not to be tried at home unless supervised by a professional. The CH-47 has been around awhile, but it is a heavy lift helicopter that can work off of sides of mountains in military situations.  This type of helicopter was used to extract Osama Bin Laden and information at his HQ in Pakistan. However, this was not that operation, but some other movement.

Extraction of Troops is not for faint of heart, since level ground is not always available.

The Arial Dog Fight Has Started With Boeing and Airbus

2nd Quarter numbers are out and Boeing flies out the door 306 copies for a mid year number.


Preliminary Score Card:

Mid Year 2013	Boeing	Airbus
Mid Year Production Units	306	295
*Paris Air Show Sales	66 B	70  B
*Paris Airshow Units	442	466
Single Isle Production	218	233
Wide Body Units	88	62
* Does not represent a complete midyear number comparison.
This chart represents a snapshot and does not consider a like comparison
for the past six months, which will be added once numbers are compiled. What Does an aerial dogfight look like on super-eight  film?

After examining the war room chart this where the fight stands. Somewhere over the fish market in Seattle.

What Airbus does on its public pages is carefully crafting convoluted numerology on its charts. Always keeping a balance of total orders since the cows came home, making it difficult to interpolate actual numbers of what its doing year to date. They have at this time sold 9,000 + aircraft similar to the 737 line. It doesn't really tell you about trends, or changes to the line, just that it has taken a lot  of orders over the life of the program. Convolution allows sales teams to say just about anything about how things are really doing.  The trend line shows Boeing making a move increasing its production to out pace Airbus. It also lags airbus in the order book by about two dozen total units,. That can gradually change in the second half of the year as more -10's are firmed from the initial 110 787-10, were first announced at the airshow in Paris, but only about 50 are firmed up at this time. The remainder are in the process of becoming firm orders instead of MOU's. 

So the dogfight continues through various means of posturing, posing and presumption. The winner-take-all battle is far from over as it started way back 03' at the start of the plastic airplane wars. However, change is on the horizon.  Boeing will throw its big X gun into the fracas in late fall.  That will lever the dogfight making Airbus commit its hand in an all-out "all-in" position with its A-350 program. The entertainment will heighten when the 777-X comes to the dogfight. The widebody field will be littered with carcasses of torn up order books and paper floating around the room from past promises. I look forward to the next entertaining feature presentation at Dubai.  

"Wait For It" or Will Success Will Be The End of "Us"

One Company's success is another Company's downfall, but what if the other company is your customer. That is Boeing's  conundrum.  Back in the day, a movie line during a "Laurel  and Hardy" was often quoted, "That's a fine fix you got us into Ollie", became a Hollywood punchline expressing falling into disaster, when intending so much. 

The piece is about the "fine fix" for the customers of manufacturers are in, when regarding purchasing the latest greatest airplane. The 787 is ten years into development, or 8 years of waiting, if a customer is found at the back of of the line, once the order is booked. If Boeing accepts your cash today on an order, an airline may wait probably 7-10 years out for delivery. Most Corporations plan in blocks of five year increments for strategic planning purposes. However, that wait time maybe fine for some airlines , but not for all.

Those who jump to the front of the line placed orders after ATO back in 2004-06, are just now receiving this year's 787 2013 deliveries. Boeing has booked 930 in total since 2004.


Order Analysis, Table I:  Boeing.com data

 2004 Orders Detail

717	737	747	767	777	787	Total
8	152	10	8	42	52	272

2005 Orders Detail

737	747	767	777	787	Total
550	48	19	153	197	967

 2006 Orders Detail

737	747	767	777	787	Total
708	54	10	76	100	948
2007 Orders Detail 737 747 767 777 787 Total 746 20 36 110 285 1197 2008 Orders Detail  737 747 767 777 787 Total 456 2 24 39 59 580  2009 Orders Detail Order Resistance year 737 747 767 777 787 Total 184 5 7 30 24 250 2010 Orders Detail Order Resistance year 737 747 767 777 787 Total 475 1 3 75 36 590 2011 Orders Detail Delivery Starts 737 747 767 777 787 Total 594 7 42 194 45 882 2012 Orders Detail Production Lowers Wait Time. 737 747 767 777 787 Total 1184 7 22 75 50 1338   2013 Orders Detail 1/2 Year -10 ATO 737 747 777 787 Total 676 3 29 82 790

A total of 930 have accumulated for 787 orders through a 10 year period, where 67 are delivered. Boeing is now producing the 2005/2006 order book, benchmarking the backlog as 7 years in arrears for those last ordered on the -8's. Consider the 863 on books not delivered, and use a scale of 100 units a year production, it would make it 8.63 years if a customer orders today before the customer receives the 787 at its HQ's.

The customer does look at this book and also counsels with Boeing on what can be done to shorten the time Queue.

Airbus loves this position that Boeing finds itself in, and will do anything to get there as well, making it a full market saturation for production. Airbus has not delivered a customer A350 yet, and has another year or so of testing before it first delivers. Meanwhile it continues banking orders in its own long "wait for it" queue, which is now beginning to help Boeing.

Boeing has the high ground as long as productivity increases and its backlog reduces. Significant orders will trigger, once that undelivered number drops below 500, and Boeing can deliver 100 units a year. When the number drops below 500, the 787 backlog falls within most airlines five year strategic plans. Officially, when the production, price, product is locked, The Airplane War Is ON and Boeing has the waiting time advantage over airbus for some time to come. They must get to around 500-600 backlog before Airbus starts delivery. Boeing will deliver 100 787's for each year starting in 2014-16. Airbus "may" start delivery late 2014 or early 2015.

Boeing has the better airplane and will have the shorter wait time. In 2015 Boeing will no longer have a five year plan problem with a ten year wait time with its customers. Boeing's backlog will be within a relevant range of an airlines planning mechanisms, and success of the 787 is well measured by that time.Things change so fast in the airline business, a five year plan is a pipe dream sometimes. A ten year wait is a nightmare! Boeing will have achieved a shrinking of the "wait gap" by 2014. By 2015 Boeing will start to unshackle the big "Q" and take on substantial orders. Boeing will also see a glimmer of a breakeven profit sunrise on the 787.

The profit sun will rise in late 2017 on the 787 model. Reorders will begin again for fleet expansion as more than half the 787 currently on the books are flying. 

Airbus' A350 wait time is just now at parity with Boeing, except that Boeing is rapidly delivering product where Airbus is just entering the flying test phase. The more orders that Boeing delivers now, the more sales it will receive in the future. Right now timely delivery is Boeing's best salesman.

Airbus customers will remain Airbus customers until they physically start losing the market to Boeing Customers. Mixed fleets of brands will singularize once a solution is validated through competition. If Airbus' A350 cannot optimize better than the 787, mixed fleet companies have options in place to use its equipment in different competitive markets. American Airlines and United have tried to position themselves that way. In the reorder book wars it will be interesting what airline will reorder what after the A350 delivers.  

Boeing's success of a full order book hurts current year buyers, because every sale lengthens the wait for any customer. I am sure they have given every customer an opportunity to match its financing for every order that is currently in line 7-8 years out. Yes a company may shorten the wait, by ordering a -10, but that door is about closed. If you really need a -10 sometime in the future, then order it now and receive it sometime in the future.

2nd China Southern Delivery, The Orient Is opening Up For The 787

The second delivery is on route at this moment from Charleston where it will stop over in Seattle for further business before going to China. Link on Boeing Flight Tracker   The door is back open as it appears, differences are resolved with this delivery flight. It will be landing in Seattle shortly, where more information will be forth coming in the Boeing headlines.  This is a crucial aircraft movement, as another China based aircraft for Hainan awaits delivery as well. Speedwell China Southern.

Flightaware Departure From Seattle to China

The Death Of The (Super) Jumbo

Kudos to Aspire Aviation Article, a must read:

BOEING 777X & 787-10 SHOW THE LURE OF THE X FACTOR

Even though, a blog tries to make a thesis and go and support that thesis with whatever facts it can find, it sometimes loses its way with many bits and pieces. Aspire Aviation Article linked above,  has put out a nice effort on what I have tried to say these last months. Boeing has a strategy, and its not about beating the A380 or the A350,but offering a better way to do airline business. A just in time-like approach and mentality. That is to say give the customer exactly what it needs to succeed in a careful and precise approach in the right time. One manufacturer may want to design by pride, a bigger and bigger aircraft, but is that what the customers really needs or "wants"?  Boeing has tried the "need" approach for its models, over the want approach of its competitors. Rather than trying to rebuild the worlds airports, Boeing has suckered Airbus by tempting it with its own pride of building everything Boeing does, but bigger. Examples:

A350 bigger than the 787

A380 bigger than the 747

A340 bigger than the 777-200

A330 bigger than the 767. 

Is this * * momentum?

The PT Barnum approach will draw crowds at airshows but will have difficulty meeting the corporate need models. Aspires article makes a compelling case for Boeing's strategy. Now that Airbus planes and plans are locked into the manufacturing  frame, Boeing has come out with the X Factor consistent with its over-all and over-arching design approach.

If this were a prize fight, Airbus keeps throwing "hay makers" and missing, and Boeing keeps jabbing away with solid jabs and wearing down European factory space.  Going into the tenth round, the X punch is coming.  Go ahead Airbus sell more airplanes in your bigger model circus tent. Ethiopian Airlines likes the precision of landing a bag of money at "every" airport. The Boeing X punch is outlined in ASPIRES article.

Here is a sample of the X punch from Boeing by Aspires article:By Daniel Tsang

July 2, 2013

"

• 787-10 to have better fuel burn per seat than A350-900
• 320-seat 787-10′s economics unrivalled & unparalleled against a de-rated A350-900
• 787 production ramp-up beyond 10/month “a foregone conclusion”
• 777X EIS postponed to 2nd quarter 2020
• 777X internal widening craves out frames between floor and overhead bins
• 777X internal widening to feature reduced frame web height & thickness of insulation
• 777X to have a small door immediately after Door 3 for servicing galleys
• 777X small door necessitated by Door 3′s close proximity to trailing edge of the wing even with retracted flaps
• GE9X engine to be the largest engine ever built by GE"

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Okay, I have a bullet point addiction, am I'm in recovery with this article. It only has 9 points, but I could have gone for more by adding some.

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"These moves are designed to contain the rise of the Airbus A350 XWB (extra widebody) aircraft family, whose successful 4 hours and 5 minutes first flight on 14 June and a second test flight 5 days later paved the way for its fly-by on 21 June, the last day of the Paris Air Show. Ironically, it is exactly the increasing momentum of the A350 programme, including the largest 350-seat A350-1000 variant which saw United Airlines converting its previous order for 25 -900s into the larger version plus another 10 new orders, that has put a renewed impetus for Boeing to launch the revamped 777 later this year.

However, once the 777X is launched, most likely at November’s Dubai Air Show, the competitive landscape in the widebody segment is poised to be altered as the final piece of the puzzle falls into place, with the 787-10 being the uncontested leader in the medium to long-haul A330-200, -300, A340 and 777-200ER (extended range) replacement market whereas the 407-seat 777-9X and 353-seat -8X will eclipse the A350 aircraft family by offering the perfect mix of growth opportunities, frequencies and cargo capacities at the former aircraft, as well as the latter providing an ultra long-haul range with a decent amount of payload that makes once economically unfeasible routes possible."

This has been my inner thought for awhile. Thank you Aspire for a piece that outlines this point so well.

When the European Giant's research team is done reading the Aspire article, they will understand that its own plane in the frame does not gain the fame.

(Sorry for my irrational behavior :( ...  : )

Case In point: Ethiopian Airlines on the 787, What it will do.....

Todays News: Seven Months Later!

Ethiopian Air clinches record profit despite temporary grounding of new Boeing 787s: CEO

July 1, 2013: "The chief executive of Ethiopian Airlines says that his company has pocketed a record profit despite the temporary grounding of its Boeing 787 Dreamliner planes.

Tewolde Gebremariam told The Associated Press Monday that his company is expecting a record profit with 20 to 25 percent growth in revenue and number of passengers.

He said Ethiopian Air would have been even more profitable, if it had not been for the grounding of its four 787 planes for more than three months. In January the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grounded the aircraft after incidents with smoldering batteries on two different planes."

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LiftnDrag: "December 11, 2012:  Blog Discussion Seven Months Earlier!

" Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

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Did this blog have some kind sixth sense? No, it had confidence in the 787. The CEO's of many airlines are reading this report today. A small African Airlines lives the dream while the larger airlines stand on the side lines opining away its Airbus allegiance and loyalty with a smaller profit margin. The 787 is all about the margin!  Corporations can control efficiencies for a better margin. But a great airplane trumps corporate efficiencies with a great airplane. Go ahead and buy an Airbus copy. After all you are invested way too deep into this horse for winning the race.  However, some can see the future . Return on Investment comes back at a higher rate with the 787. How fast can you pay for your purchase even if it is grounded for four months?  Ethiopian says pretty darn fast in the big picture of operations. If one doesn't get in line now for the 787-10, you will be too late to take advantage of an early start on profits. The later start give an airline an "also ran status". 

Ethiopian Profits Soar