Boeing Completes Plug And Play on Its 787 Battery

The  battery debacle is now in the rearview mirror for the Boeing 787.  This milestone of regroup and deploy is over for the customer aircraft already parked around the world. Mission accomplished on time and maybe a little ahead of the first schedule announced earlier this year.  When predictions of how long it will take is asked by all at the press conference held earlier this year, Boeing confidently expressed its sentiments on the issue without know if anymore mishaps would occur.

Here is the scorecard posted by Komo News:

Boeing: All 787s now retrofitted with new battery systems

"SEATTLE - The Boeing Co. has now finished installing the new 787 battery system in all 50 of the delivered airplanes that required a retrofit, company officials said.

Randy Tinseth, vice president, marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said six of the eight airlines with 787s in their fleets have now returned the jetliners to passenger service. The others are expected to follow in a matter of a few days."

Full Press Points From Komo:

• Ethiopian Airlines was the first to return its 787 aircraft to the skies. Air India and Qatar Airways restarted flights soon after.

• United Airlines, the only U.S. company with the 787 in its fleet, put its planes back in air on May 20. The airline, based in Chicago, said it will use 787s on shorter domestic flights before resuming international flying June 10 with new Denver-to-Tokyo service as well as temporary Houston-to-London flights. It's adding flights to Tokyo, Shanghai, and Lagos, Nigeria, in August.

• Poland's LOT Airlines plans to return its 787s back into service on Saturday.

• Smoldering batteries on two 787s owned by Japan-based airlines prompted authorities to ground the planes in January. The failure of Boeing's newest, flashiest and most important plane embarrassed the company and its customers.

• The two battery incidents in January included an emergency landing of one plane, and a fire on another. Federal authorities lifted the grounding order on April 19 but it has taken Boeing and the airlines a few more weeks to fix most of them.

• The incidents never caused any serious injuries. But the January grounding embarrassed Boeing and disrupted schedules at the eight airlines that were flying the planes. The company had delivered 50 of the planes worldwide.

• The 787 uses more electricity than any other jet. And it makes more use of lithium-ion batteries than other jets to provide power for things like flight controls and a backup generator when its engines are shut down. Each 787 has two of the batteries.

• Boeing Co. never did figure out the root cause of the battery incidents. Instead, it redesigned the battery and its charger. The idea was to eliminate all of the possible causes, 787 chief engineer Mike Sinnett said.

• The changes include more heat insulation between each cell and charging the battery to a lower maximum voltage.

• Boeing never stopped making 787s, but deliveries were halted. They resumed in mid-May, and Boeing has since delivered two planes, both with the new battery system.

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The view from the rear view mirror has Boeing issuing directives for its battery and electrical systems suppliers to work on root cause solutions. By identify actual data that prove a source for thermal runaway. If lowering electrical spike tolerances from its generator through having limiting controls with its electrical flow to the battery, then Boeing may have indirectly found a contributing cause if no instances of thermal runaway shows on the battery.  This type of spiking may damage vulnerable cells from its battery maker. A vulnerable cell may have some weakness created during manufacturing which would leave it open to surges and shorting in the the cell.  Over time the battery degrades with a constant  electrical workload with a less capable battery, which will accelerate the battery's lack of functionality in an ever increasing failure rate, until it reaches the thermal runaway point. To put it simply, the battery is "now" protected by a narrower voltage range, so no electrical surge will short circuit cell structures. Which surging and shorting leads to an ever increasing weaken battery and then eventually thermal runaway.  

The manufacturer must redouble its effort in quality control to give assurances on Battery cell structure promising that it does not have working vulnerabilities in its battery, which could lead to causal failures through in-cell electrical shorts under extreme loads. Those shorts Takes it further below the battery's ability to receive inputs from the generator and continue its distribution of battery power to its systems while on the ground. 

Boeing has position itself by doing what it can control regarding the Lithium-ion battery from the back end of this technology progression. Through a role of: Boeing is basically the Fire Marshal, for this enterprise. It doesn't hold solutions over root cause, but it can assure its customers they get home safely. Hence, the stainless steel fire box, expunging of toxic fumes, and denial of oxygen to any potential fire or heat source. They can fly this aircraft anywhere in the world without the battery that falls into distress and failure. The FAA knows this, that is why they let it back in the air without documenting the Root Cause, or not issuing a particular fix to that unknown cause.  However, Boeing and partners have narrowed it down to several ways a battery has thermal runaway (fails). Resulting with heat, fire, and smoke, during operations on the ground or in the air.  They have put the battery in a safe place for its passengers, no matter what an incident cause could be! 

Will thermal runaway ever occur again?  That is the multi billion dollar question. Boeing believes they have addressed all contingent possibilities of any Battery root cause failures, even to the point of a total failure battery during flight. They can safely fly and land this aircraft during any battery event. Just as if it were sound and normal for its passengers. No one will come running out of the cockpit to check systems and problems, but the captain will  remain calm and in control while shifting to secondary systems seamlessly.  I really believe that thermal runaway will not occur on the 787 again. I also believe since they have evidence of what a failure looks likes, they will be able to isolate what the real root cause is, and make the advanced batteries and electrical solutions. Then it will put this issue into the history books. In the meantime, a thermal runaway will only occur in the future, if a new conditions unknown to anyone arises. That condition would be different than the possibilities that were recently identified, and addressed on this recent battery and systems modifications.

The Boeing 787 is a Joy to fly, fly-on and fly over your community.

Speculating Through Blogger Spectacles On Paris, 787-10 and 777X

Some Aviation writer specialist types are thinking, rightly so, the Boeing will address the 777X at a big blowout in Dubais' airshow this fall.

Analyst: Boeing could launch 787-10X at Paris Air Show, but ... They start with "But".... I'll start with... However, Boeing has two trump cards to play at the Paris Air Show. The 787-10 and 777-X.  The launch customer gets to decide.   Boeing could do the Paris Air Show for the 777 X, but would stand back on the announce per request of the Arab launch customers.  A  Tightly held secret by both Boeing and "Customer (s). Airbus has ran its offering to the playground fence and is chiding Boeing about bringing a bigger playground ball to the Park and Fly held in Paris.  So I contemplated if I were some Big Time Boeing Exec , CEO Like, what would I do in this gamesmanship of airplanes held at the biggest stage or at the Biggest customer's stage in announcing what will go down at Paris. My two hole cards are in play. I want to win the hand and I don't want to double down with both the -10 or X cards at the same time. I want to use the the X Card after Airbus plays its -9 Bus at Paris and trump it later with some high paying jackpot. Boeing has sloughed and bluffed for the Paris Card Table with the X.  After thinking about the above article link, it is logical to think that a 2020 timeline airplane can wait to play its trump card for the Launch Customer (s) in Dubais. Here is what Boeing will throw into the pot at Dubai's these extra Chips. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dubai Chip Pot for Boeing: Launch Customers...  Customer Configurations of what is needed and wanted. More advance engineering points locked down on the 777-X A duopoly of launch Customers, one for the 8X and One for 9X Innovation, range, and efficiency milestones not yet firmed for Paris will show up for Dubai. An earlier prediction made by LiftnDrag was the 777-x went underground and won't  emerge until Airbus A350 is all in so its off to Dubai. Airbus will be "all in" with the pot at Paris, Boeing Takes the Pot at Dubai. Now for the 787-10 at Paris If I were CEO for the week: I would reread Aspires Article if April 24, 2013 for a warm-up: Boeing Dreamliner Is A Dream Come True, Again "As the modification work began on 10 fleet and 9 production aircraft, which will be completed on the bulk of the fleet by mid-May, Boeing could finally put behind and look beyond the latest fiasco, get the focus right on the production ramp-up to 10 aircraft per month by the end of this year, introducing the stretched and significantly improved 787-9 variant in early 2014, as well as launching the highly sought-after 323-seat double-stretched 787-10X variant, where a latent demand is awaiting to be unleashed to replace the 777-200ER, Airbus A330-200s and -300s in one fell swoop. Provided that Boeing execute well on these challenging but not insurmountable tasks, a big ‘if’ after earning a serious black eye in its perennial delivery delays and the latest battery grounding episode, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner could well be a dream come true for the Chicago-based airframer again."

Is the power point working, Okay, good.

First slide:

Faux Quotes from CEO LiftnDrag

"Let me just say our competitors can't cover all the bases at the same time because they don't know what we know. They are still presuming the A350 series and A330 plus customer loyalty will rule the week. Let's go down the bullet points on powerpoint!"  (light laughter).....

First up on the list is...

• The 787-10 Launch Customer announcement for Paris.

Fly on the wall note by LnD: "I have know idea who that may be. In fact I haven't found a sniff of a clue.  But if they are going to announce at Paris they have one bagged by now, and are awaiting the big stage. Here are the usual suspects lined up in profile in the bright spot light lineup room for the witnesses.

ANA

Qantas

New Zealand

Lan

Arab Nations

And BA.

The CEO has someone whisper into his ear at this time and all you get is a smile.

Next slide

• Boeing brings a band to Paris as the CEO quips, "is the music arranged as well as the  Balloons".

Next slide: 

Announces new orders for the Max is on tap and should establish parity with the competitor.

• The 737 Max and NG have an additional 100 orders, ...

"who will run that presentation?"

Now onto the 777X, we are going to be very careful on this presentation. This is this years game changer.

Next slides:

• The 777X will have 300 orders by the end of the year but no announcement on the launch customer until Dubai.
• The 777-X presentation includes all "A350 beater" stats. Sales has the presentation.
• 777-X innovations presentations, is the teaser for the Dubai show.

China Figures Out The 787 Is Ready, Is No Coincidence

Finally China Southern, Hainan and The Aviation branch, are extremely positioned for receiving the 787.  Boeing company has another linchpin fall into place to remove its backlog. Is this all coincidence or something more expedient for all players.  I believe the Chinese did a very wise thing in waiting for everything to play out, before validating and accepting the 787 airline rather than pushing for an earlier delivery date.

China Issues Type Certification for Boeing 787

I am far from the first, about posting this news. but I enjoyed thinking what's in play for both partners, with the here and now. Here are few of those thoughts. Now is the time to post thoughts about China, Southern and Hainan.

• China has had extensive time to examine this model and note how it can be done.
• Boeing lets no secrets out and uses advance aeronautical expertise flow through the 787.
• China has extra money "time banked" and fluffed for spending.
• Boeing delivers its most complete and fixed version after the great 787 fire is out.
• China is smart to have waited for all pieces to come to them, and now they need to hand out those pieces.
• Boeing is in a good position now to move a lot of 787 product.
• China needs a lot of product while it certified the 787- because its JIT (Just In Time).

Chinese aviation is getting off the pot and cutting bait on its certification, they had already completed its extensive review, but held Boeing at bay until they could maximize the moment.  Boeing understands this kind of decision making and it has prepared a way for these airlines to really seek out big numbers in sales over the next decade. It will take Boeing the next few years to work through the order-book with standing orders. The next rush of orders from its committed following, will come when financial numbers start trickling in from airline customers using this product. When that happens you may see others currently not committed, hurry in for its first time orders before they get pushed back the end of the Boeing Order Queue. Spring of 2014 will test Boeing's production strategy. If at the end of 2013 they deliver 75 787 during 2013, this will tear down resistance from having an uncertain new aircraft, and emphasizes the importance of "getting on board the order train", sooner rather than later.

China Southern and Hainan make two of those customers seeing 787's market value intersecting with its ordering queue regarding the 787. They can take on another 100 orders each, once crunching some early operational numbers. It would be perfect for them to get into that order queue, as the balance of its own first group is delivered in 2014.

So here comes some numbers, Order Queue currently at about 800, 787-8-9's

• At the end of 2013 Order Queue will be about 725 with the current 787 order book
• At the end of 2014 Order Queue of about 630 with the current order book, and  then the order demand will increase the second half of 2014 because there is a push to get in line.

In 2015 Boeing will have 500 or less aircraft unfilled on Boeing's current book,  if no other aircraft are ordered until then, but I would think (dangerous thing), that the 787 Boeing order book log jam will break-up, and then gain some hefty sales numbers on both the -8.-9. Maybe throw in a launch customers for the " -10"(Singapore orders 30, -10 update Paris 7//13)! However, Boeing should add to the order book another 300, putting Boeing back to a number of  about 800 by 2015. Boeing will work hard to keep a 7-8 year backlog on the 787 from that point forward, and it can be done with the 787-10. 

Maybe XWB Isn't All That XWB Next To The 777X, Ray Connor Explains

The Seattle Times has come out with a solid report on the 777X revealing Ray Connors PR assessment of comparing the A350 with the 777x in a  discussion format. I will attempt a brief reply to each of these talking points for your own consideration.

Using Seattle Times: Conner sees Boeing as top dog in wide body market.

"Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief Ray Conner declared Wednesday that the 787 has “turned the corner,” with the fix for its recent battery problem all but completely implemented and production on track to rise to 10 jets a month by year end.

At Boeing’s annual investor conference, Conner confidently predicted that the 787 and the forthcoming 777X will dominate the widebody jet market against competition from Airbus.

“We’re set to take off here in the next couple of years,” he said."

Conner indicated that both the proposed 777X and 787-10 are close to official launch.

LiftnDrag Observations: (Blue font)

The finally factor has hit the turbo fan, as stated before,  this Blog has all flight plans leading to Paris. Connor is ramping up the anticipation for a big show on schedule with this brief. Keep this brief for your notes so you may compare after the Show is over.

“Momentum on the development programs continues to intensify,” he told the audience of Wall Street analysts at the conference. “We are in a lot more detailed discussions than you guys realize with our customers.”

Conner displayed a product line chart that for the first time publicly confirmed the seating capacity of the proposed 777-8X and 777-9X variants. While the 350-seat 777 -8X will go head -to-head with Airbus’s much-touted A350-1000, the 777-9X — carrying more than 400 passengers — “will be kind of sitting there by itself” with no competitive offering from Airbus, he said."

Airbus has already been alerted to these facts long ago and is spinning its report consistently in grand fashion for its first flight worthy A-350 rendering. The hype needle moves higher for both parties. Customers alike are not hearing the rhetoric, as some kind of follow-on mantra, but are keeping its data sheets churning in computer programs.  Ray Connor is leaking lubricated sentiments about the 7778X and 7779x with a steady precision, pounding the point not in vitriolic cadence of a competitor, but of a self assured gambler with a winning hand. The momentum of 777X and 787-10 programs parallel the PR message. As the statements increase so does the progress towards the tipping point nears. The tipping point is full on details followed by sales commitments from its customers.

"It is widely expected that Boeing will launch the 787-10 — the final and largest member of the Dreamliner jet family — at the Paris Air Show next month and the 777X later in the year.

Conner said the 787-10 likely would have been launched already if not for the three-month grounding of the fleet due to the battery overheating incidents in January.

But he suggested that embarrassing interlude, while “a significant challenge,” is almost over.

“Our team responded in a way that was really phenomenal,” Conner said.

He said retrofitting the new battery systems to the worldwide fleet of 50 jets “is over 90 percent done and we should be completed by next week.”

He said airlines will finally resume their planned 787 scheduled services early next month and Boeing is sticking to its plan to deliver more than 60 Dreamliners by year end.

Speaking at a resort on Kiawah Island, outside Charleston, S.C., Conner said the two 787 fuselage fabrication plants in North Charleston are “starting to really hum,” rolling out mid-body and aft-body Dreamliner sections for the final assembly lines in Washington and South Carolina at the new 7 per month rate.

Earlier this month, the first Dreamliner rolled off the assembly line in Everett at that new production rate, putting in sight the goal of 10 per month by year end.

“The 787 is moving in the right direction,” Conner said. “We’ve had some pretty tough years. We have turned the corner.”

Okay, I can say game on and "let's get ready to rumble" (Las Vegas Boxing Ring Announcer). The 787-10' is good as launched, without saying so. Boeing has an appointment in Paris to say so. That is why I am so excited for the Paris Airshow this year.  Boeing has lined up some impressive declarations for the show. They have worked years to upstage Airbus for this moment. All the pumping up and then holding off at the last is a grand moment for the debutants, 787-10, 777X-8, and 777X-9. The Airbus A-350 is going to fly with as much verboseness as possible from John Leahy, et al. John, enjoy the moment, but your talking to number crunchers, and bean counters trying to squeeze a dime out of a nickel (cadmium battery).  The Euro Billions are at stake in June. A lot of face saving comments will flood the microphone with catchy background music. The public will say with a collective, "wow" or "cool", as it looks at airplane pictures and see the collections of  A350, 777X and 787-10 renderings.

To go beyond 10 a month, the company and its suppliers would all have to make a capital investment in new plant and equipment, said Conner. Boeing is studying that option, but won’t make any decision until it achieves the 10 per month rate, he said.

On 777X, Conner said the larger -9X variant, the one without an Airbus rival, will debut first.

And he said he’s confident the 777-8X will compete well with the A350-1000.

Conner said the -8X will fly further with 20 percent better fuel economy and 15 percent better per-seat operating costs than the current star of Boeing’s widebody line-up, the 777-300ER.

Airbus touts an even bigger efficiency jump for its equivalent sized A350-1000, saying it’s going to be 25 percent more fuel efficient than the 777-300ER.

But Conner disputed that, saying that the 777-8X “operating costs are at least on a par with what we think (Airbus) can do.”

In the question and answer session, Conner offered an unusual glimpse of how political fixing can influence the commercial airliner business.

He cited a couple of previously undisclosed factors that in March helped Airbus win a massive 234-jet narrowbody order from Lion Air of Indonesia, previously an all-Boeing customer.

Conner said that while the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration had balked at giving an operating ticket to Lion Air for a new jet maintenance facility, “it looks like they are going to get a ticket from Europe.”

In addition, he said, a ban on Lion Air flying its jets into European airports, imposed because of a poor safety record for Indonesian aviation generally, has been lifted.

Despite that Airbus win, Conner said the 737 MAX will eventually regain market share in the smaller narrowbody jet market against the A320neo jet family.

Clearly though, Boeing foresees no parity in the widebody jet market, only dominance.

“We’ve got them boxed in on A350 at the top,” Conner said."

Dominic Gates: (206) 464-2963 or dgates@seattletimes.com

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Its a wrap, let's parse through the words. In the Do-over Round:

• The 777X-9 will debut first
• The 777X-8 will compete with the A350-10 
• The 777X-8 will have a 20% fuel improvement over the 777-300-ER
• The A-350-10 will have a 25% fuel improvement over the 777-300-ER
• 777-8X “operating costs are at least on a par with what we think (Airbus) can do.”
• Lion Air Caved In on the A320 over the Boeing offering. Maintenance and new perceptions in play by Europe. Euro Government and Airbus Are getting along.

The rose colored glasses are on in Paris and the Air battles from Airbus's new perceptions and Boeings winning package (hand) will dominate the Paris Airshow kiosks throughout. Airbus needs the A-350 to land safely at the show and Boeing needs to pull its hole cards out to win the hand.

Forbes Vs The LiftnDrag Breakeven Analysis

May Extra:

Forbes magazine just came out with Boeing profitability prediction number today May 21, 2013. On December 11, 2012, LiftnDrag made observations on the same subject, when will the 787 make Boeing money. Having not analyzed the December 2012 LiftnDrag article I will write this AD Hoc without knowing how they will eventually compare in its analysis.  Trust me, I just read the Forbes article six months later. It will be good for me, good or bad, to test my assumptions and conclusions with Forbes six month later article in light of all Boeing's rollercoaster year of issues in the 787 program, with its fire and smoke.

Forbes Content:

Boeing Bleeding Cash As 787 Dreamliners Cost $200M But Sell For $116M, But Productivity Is Improving. Agustino Fontevecchia, Forbes Staff

"After the Dreamliner battery fiasco, Boeing BA +0.03% managed to get its 787s up in the air again and resumed deliveries.  The company has improved its cash costs and thus reduced its cash burn over the coming years, according to UBS, but Boeing will have to push hard if it expects to bring those costs down to about $110 million per unit, the point at which it will stop losing money selling Dreamliners.  To do this, Boeing will have to be 50% more efficient than it was with the 777."

LiftnDrag Blue Font: December 11, 2012

"The press loves dire headlines where Boeing loves overly optimistic quips on its 787. Hyperbole Of The Dire, versus Optimistic The Magnificent, who will win? Somewhere in between, the truth will win out. Many reports calculate Boeing will not turn a profit until 2021, while the marketing arm for Boeing's stockholders proclaims victory by 2015. However, I believe somewhere in the middle is found the truth.  Boeing will significantly reduce the cost of production by 2015. Items they can control will fold into smooth production."

Forbes: "Over the past few quarters, Boeing has substantially improved its cash costs for the 787s, which averaged about $200 million, but that remains worlds away from the breakeven values which the company expects to achieve by 2015.  Cash burn has improved by about $1 billion per year through 2015, according to UBS’ estimates, which now expects Boeing to go through $4 to $5 billion this year and next, and between $2 and $3 billion in 2015; this year, 787 cash drag will approximate $5 billion, as a $7 billion inventory build offsets a $2 billion advance draw."

LiftnDrag: December 11, 2012

"Remember not so long ago on 7-7-07 Boeing rolled out a 787 looking shell made of mostly plastic without even an idea how long it would take to fly.  Some even said on July 7, 2007,  following September delivery would occur.  However, the real story unfolded in three more years.  Boeing has so many unforeseen bumps, potholes, and underachiever subcontracts adding to its 787 recipes.  A reporter couldn't get a straight line from any Boeing official during this time period of 2007-2010. Nobody had a knowledgeable answer to give. The three and a half years of underachieving, schooled the Boeing company. This was not your father's airplane.   Boeing has become the world's foremost expert on building a totally high tech  aircraft from plastics, with "outside the box" design and innovation."  

Forbes: "Estimates indicate Boeing’s 787s will sell for an average $116 million per unit, a 48% discount to the average list price of $225 million.  With 787-9 deliveries not expected until 2014, Boeing’s 787 physical inventory is expected to reach $900 million, with physical inventory then flattening out in 2014 as deliveries match production, while UBS expects a $900 million reversal in 2015 as deliveries move higher."

LiftnDrag: December 11,2012

"In fact, they are now building about 5 a month or more. Way better than showing off-the-shelf for photographers that was hand pushed into view 5 years ago.   So what does the financial crowd say, Boeing won't make money until 2021. The press is trying to find malfunctioning cup holders and disgruntled passengers on the aircraft.  Boeing had a malfunctioning Generator set, one out of six installed for redundancy on one new aircraft.  The news bounced around the world so fast that one would think it had crashed with a total hull loss. When in fact the plane operated as designed under the condition of a generator failure.  Redundancy and design considerations were in place long before the first showing a shell of an aircraft back in 2007. Probably none of the generators were even installed until far after the event.  What happened to this most recent glitch will be detailed for the press, once it is known.  A "battery" of people want to know, Boeing, the generator contractor, and the FAA are all in line to find out first." 

Forbes:

"If Boeing wants to hit its profitability target, and begin to make low single-digit margins by 2015, it will have to double its learning curve compared to production on the 777.  Using Wright’s model (which stipulates cumulative average production cost will decrease by a constant percentages each time the production quantity is doubled), UBS finds Boeing was able to reduce cash-costs at a 25% compound annual growth rate through the first three years of production, which indicates “Boeing learned at a rate of roughly 16%, meaning that the cumulative average unit cost over the first 50 units was roughly 16% lower than the cumulative average unit cost over the first 25 units.”

LiftnDrag: December 11, 2012

"However, the press and financiers will have a collective moment of throwing cautionary tales out for the reading public to sell copies, while financial people love conservative analysis sold to investors. So 2021 becomes the outer time limit for a conservative target date for profitability. In the meantime an investor has time for buy/sell;  knock yourself out selling short, buying low, or dumping stock, because the crazies are running the market during any week or two periods of time. But, long term investors are far more certain of success if picking a spot now and jumping in for a smooth ride.

Final points: To the investor, keep your eye on two big-ticket items in your portfolio analysis.

•        One, the accumulation of new Boeing orders after post-A-350  introduction, 

•        and how much money airlines are making flying their 787's.  

Don't look at Air India in this exercise, but rather look at All Nippon Airline's bottom line from its efficient air travel business plan.  Since ANA also has a significant number of 787's in a mixed fleet of long haul international, and its national  routes of" Japan only" stops, found in ANA's flight route portfolio. Try to understand what the 787 has done for them.  Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of the next fiscal year.  

This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

Forbes Conclusion:

"In order to breakeven by 2015, Boeing’s learning curve will have to double the rate seen with the 777, with cumulative average cost falling by about 24% with each doubling of production.  If they traced the 16% rate seen in the 777, average cost would fall to about $150 million by 2015, meaning they wouldn't break even until the end of the decade.

 

Investors have remained bullish on Boeing despite the important setbacks caused by battery fires, which forced the grounding of the entire 787 fleet.  Not only has Boeing dramatically outperformed the market in 2013, it has also left competitors like Lockheed Martin LMT +0.4% in the dust.  Yet Boeing’s gains have come in short when compared to the airlines, with names like Southwest, United Continental , and Delta rallying 40% or more this year.

 

Boeing has been pretty good at managing what could've ended up being a massive blunder.  It fixed its battery problems and got the Dreamliner’s back in the air while beating Wall Street’s consensus estimates and improving on their cash costs, as UBS noted.  The company will continue to bleed cash, yet it is setting itself up for better days ahead, but if it still wants to hit its targets, it will have to continue working as hard."

 

LiftnDrag Down To Business: December 11, 2012

 

"I said prior in a prior posting, that I believe Boeing will reach Break-even when 150 787-10's are sold or delivered.  I don't know when that will happen but, I believe this can be done well before 2021, but not by 2015. Boeing will have to exhaust a significant portion of its order backlog through deliveries by 2015 to meet that goal. However, by 2015 Boeing will have all risks retired and certainty of "when it will exactly meet, the profitability barrier beyond 2015".  

 

A 2015 forecast for the year 2017 from Boeing, is a better forecast than this years 2012 forecast for 2015. Two years from now a solid view to future will excite the investor and I believe Boeing will state it, will make money by 2017, to 2021. A financial cushion of time would lean towards 2018. Boeing will make money on the 787 projects as a whole surging past its break even point late 2017 or early 2018.

Why?  By then, Nines are long since airborne and are flying out the door. Eights are half way through the order Que, with refined models popping out the giant doors every three days without hesitation.  2015 is time to secure the market share, because they will know how well the A-350 will perform and also have a new 777-X in the offering.  It means that 2015 is not a 787's profitability year, but the year becomes a major change for the airline wars. It's easy to see Boeing mastering of plastics, to the extent that it will announce the building of a monumental plastic airplane in 2015."

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

There you have it, this is how I was thinking six months ago, I think Forbes did a great job of presenting its case on Boeing. I still believe, in light of all the recent problems, Boeing has pushed back the break even off the year 2015 and moved further towards my earlier prediction of 2017. Many things need to occur as Forbes has alluded to, in its quest for the Break Even point on this project. What is important to know is that Boeing can and will, execute its 787 business model, and will make money long before 2020 on the 787.  It needs to reach some more milestone to accomplish that goal:

• Take about 400 or more 787 orders by the end of 2015 
• Production Maturation is complete by 2015 where it moves 100 units a year consistently.
• Write a book about what happened back in the day making the first 50 787's.

 

 

 

 

End Of May Drag/Monthly Summary Audit Report: for those who prefer summary reports

Summary Report

Below is the summary recap "Audit Report", of what was found interesting during May 2013,  since articles are anywhere from rants to raves in the cycle of research and development. My own drift is based on other issues moved in subtle, and various directions. As "others" build things that fly just like Boeing, and it influences its ability to compete. Northrop Grumman has a key influence on what Boeing does with its Drone business. Airbus is not telling anything about XWB, causing Boeing to stick with its 787 and 777X plans. In all there were 13 blogs this month not counting this end of month blog. The findings are listed by Category and are as Follow:

Findings Report, Month Of May 2013:

Drones...

have three reports during may they include the following Links and descriptions from LiftnDrag working papers.

Exhibit 5-1-2013    X-48C A New Class Of Aircraft With Multiple Applic...

Boeing, quietly has been developing a new class of aircraft with multiple applications. The press doesn't report on this project because it does not relate or equate its conventional wisdom on air travel by Blended Wing Body (BWB). Boeing is now testing the X-48C as a working model for validating avionics, confirming Blended Wing feasibility, for structural limits and material components. It is reviewing and testing various possibilities for  the commercial and military aircraft applications.

Exhibit 5-15-2013 Straight From Peter Pan, "Here We Go!", X-47B Car...

A page from the  "Art of War" has turned.  Its a Grumman product and its now for real.




Exhibit 5-17-2013 Boeing's Phantom Ray Project On Tap Today.

Here is the link to the Boeing Autonomous War Bird 

Boeing 787:

 Exhibit: 5/04/13  Boeing Making A Proprietary Shift   Boeing is beginning to seek a proprietary shift in its manufacturing. This shift will not be a wholesale cashing out of contractors, but subtle shift towards controlling what Boeing can control well, one part at a time where necessary.  The Boeing partners need not worry, but are partially liable to this shift. Boeing's duopoly with Airbus and another new kid on the block, Comac, hold some pressure on Boeing's quiet change of strategy of seeking proprietary solutions for new aircraft productions, through key parts that Boeing can do. It is an old strategy of added value from its own production resources. The second strategy is having exclusive proprietary control over aero space advancements where its competitors cannot access.

Exhibit: 5/16/13
 The resolution of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner batter...

Hot Link Engineering Journals The 787 Battery Saga

Exhibit:05/17/13    The 787 Flies, I know, I can hear its Squawks Over... 

Squawk #1:
Air India is Goring its Ox! A bad choice of words for AI.  Airlines (ANA) are receiving up to 21% increased fuel economy over prior models.  Air India says only 17% and they want money for it. Next they will ask for a rebate because it can't fit household goods in the overhead luggage bins. Boeing prides itself in fuel economy and rightly so! Not every airline carrier operates its aircraft the same, or flies the same routes. Not only that, airlines may not maximize the aircraft. Air India is asking the "Boeing Sugar Daddy" for a refund, on lateness, "Done", on Battery Issue, "Done", and now fuel economy, well sounds like a personal problem, "not done". 

 Exhibit 05/19/13: Just In Time 787 Tuning

The Wall Street Journal Aviation Experts, Jon Ostrower and Andy Pasztor, have laid out some important talking points, easily overlooked by aviation enthusiast and  other people seeking analysis for its investments. Jon has covered the 787 from the days before 7E7, and knows its bones well.  He writes about "other issues" so we know what else is transpiring during its break in year.  The benefit of the battery issue  had an important underlying fix for the 787, time, applied to all other newly delivered 787 airplanes and those in production with related squawks.  If the 787 kepted flying a normal rotation without a substantial shutdown, it would have been harder to implement "other fixes", found in the maturation of a new airplane.

777X

 Exhibit: 5/02/13 777X All Flight Plans Lead To Paris 

The news is full of the 777X today, recounting what LiftnDrag has been hinting at for some time during the last six months. There is a new sheriff in town, and it will be the  777-8 and-9. Look at a few notable links and you get the sense Boeing is just about to let the cat out of the bag in the next few weeks with additional details comprising its recent Authority to Offer (ATO). If Boeing chooses to do so, it will "leak out", in Paris who the signature Launch Customers (LC) are during the "Airshow and Tell"?

Exhibit:  5/15/2013  777X Forms A Team

Everything starts at the top, and the top right now is organizing the most effective players with key abilities. The Boeing parts bin is not limited to well, just parts, but actual boots on the floor and generals that win battles. The starting line up is as follows:

737 Max

Exhibit: 5/07/13  Design of engine for Boeing 737 Max completed 

The topic is the Max 737 Engine design freeze from CFM.  The Puget Sound Business Journal brings this discussion to light. The Journal follows with the announcement, about the CFM 737 Max engine:

"CFM International engineers have locked in the design of the Boeing 737 Max engine, moving the aircraft upgrade a significant step toward reality. The completion of the engine design paves the way for configuration of the rest of the airplane."

"The May 2 design "freeze" of the LEAP-1B engine means engine manufacturer CFM International can now start developing and releasing the digital files, still referred to as “drawings,” that will guide milling machines in cutting engine parts.

CFM International is a joint venture between General Electric and Snecma, a French company.

Music and Celebration Section

Exhibit:5/13/13   787 Returns On Investment Earth Wind and Fire Edit... 

Unwind the Motors At Work And Just Relax

The spurts and sputters of the 787 Program has had a much publicized history covering more than just fasteners, glue and plastic. It reminds me of the band Earth Wind and Fire: Click Fantasy on below link, as it opens in a new window, window back to these lyrics when the song starts; then follow on the lyrics (or just watch the show in the new tab, its worth it).

Fantasy

Oh Yes Paris Section

Exhibit: 05/10/13  Seeing The Order Book Through Paris Sized Beer Gog... 

Boeing has not reported much of late from its order book. I get the feeling they will pull a John Leahy special (ala Airbus), and announce solid sales for the 737 Max in a grand array of orders as seen through Boeing's beer goggles. What will be announced is a collected sum of orders representing months and years in the making, with an obligatory comment of, " Boeing only announces what our customers request during air shows." The reality is "Please let us announce your order through the Paris Air Show, and oh please and thank you. Plus, don't lose that sealed envelope I'm giving you as a bookmark for your notepad."

Enough of fantasy for the morning, back to speculating about sales.

Exhibit: 5/11/13:  All Quiet On The Boeing Front Pre Paris Lull 

News has settled into a routine that is no longer keeping one  hounding the press wires about everything from  737-Max to Scram Jet technology. No blended wing bodies or any kind of new item in play. This quiet is because of Paris. All the glad handing troops are loading travel bags, swag bags and laser pointers  into the travel kits. A piece of news just to keep the 747-8 in the discussion is this "Item" about the Cathay Pacific 747-8F . Yes there is that quiet program called Freighter Lines, that went into slumber during the great downturn of world economies. It may reemerge at Paris in the form of 747-8F orders.

Recommendations:

 I recommend Boeing, needs to make its hay in Paris on all fronts. The 737-777X a necessary statement is to be made, and the time is appropriate to unleash a crescendo of advancements for all its programs. Doing so, will maximize the energy established in its development, production and sales.

Just In Time 787 Tuning

The Wall Street Journal Aviation Experts, Jon Ostrower and Andy Pasztor, have laid out some important talking points, easily overlooked by aviation enthusiast and  other people seeking analysis for its investments. Jon has covered the 787 from the days before 7E7, and knows its bones well.  He writes about "other issues" so we know what else is transpiring during its break in year.  The benefit of the battery issue  had an important underlying fix for the 787, time, applied to all other newly delivered 787 airplanes and those in production with related squawks.  If the 787 kepted flying a normal rotation without a substantial shutdown, it would have been harder to implement "other fixes", found in the maturation of a new airplane.

Dreamliner's Other Issues Draw Attention WSJ, Jon Ostrower

The above link leads you to an accurate assessment of what else needs refining for 787 and how battery related down time enabled Boeing to achieve fixes towards hardware, firmware and systems upgrades. Part of the problem for operators is on time goals that don't come easy for operations.  The value of the 787 is not just found in its plastics, engines or design, but in the hidden agenda of its "Just In Time" management systems. As the article points out, something detected inflight has a part waiting for it  when it lands and then getting the aircraft back up during its 45 minute turnaround window. It reminds me of the pit crew at the racetrack. The computers on the race car indicate braking wear, tire status and engine indicators so when it comes in to a pit stop, the crew is ready with tires, wrenches and duct tape and gets the car out in 12 seconds or less. 

Boeing has this silent computer partner, riding on all its 787 aircraft. It knows when its enough for something and orders a change in advance of landing, where the crew are ready with parts, wrenches, and the right mechanical protocol. The second point that Boeing achieved, is the data and feedback from its customer indicating, what needs to be changed on the 787 once it lands.  Boeing drew on the bank of "down time", and made significant engineering tweaks on its inventory of 50 grounded aircraft.  What was once a disaster is now a break for the program, as it now allows Boeing to do upgrades in a timely manner across the board, even though grounding was a disaster, but critical ground was made up during the first five months of 2013 at this critical junction of the 787 aircraft production.

The Boeing exhale will show up at Paris. The 787 will have a new airplane shine on it. Everything coming out the Boeing plant door will have the upgrades, fixes, and refinements; better than what came out the door on December 31, 2012. The maturation of production will now start to sell more airplanes.

Please refer to the WSJ article as it details many other issues caught and resolved during this downtime, and Boeing's sense of direction has been refined by its customers. Not all customers are the same and not all airplanes require the same care to be on time.