My Blog List

Friday, July 3, 2015

Modernizing The Potential With A Military Perspective.

Not often does something come along which revolutionizes the culture. Human kind is on the cusp of something new all the time. Is it the next bicycle, airplane or military concept? It’s all three and can be had for the convenient price of $80,000 dollars (SRP). Today I am in vacation mode, where blogging can only consider fun and ingenious concepts. The month of July could be lousy for sarcasm, snarkiness and intellectual contribution concerning Boeing stuff. I can't hate on Airbus during July. I will be fishing, BBQing and with relatives. The rest will come naturally. Check!


However, it will include a summer reading link for all electronic reading. My son pointed this link out to me, and it’s already consumed a week of one of my precious last summers that I may have, as I age on dude!

Summer Must Read -link:  ALPHA FOXTROT




Summer Vacation Starts Here: At Flathead Lake Montana. Looking from my Sister's Abode View from the upper back deck. Bucket List Check!



­­­­­­Next in the Montana on the Winging It Vacation, is camping at Glacier Park and reuniting with family, for the pure joy of listening to how others live in camp grounds the right way.  ;) Another lousy vacation picture of the Glacier that I remember from Last year's trip is now yours to cherish. It’s really outstanding at the Park. Shhhh don't tell anybody. It's our secret. Bucket List Check!


I won't tell you about where this picture is even taken, but its in a small gorge coming from a Lake about two miles away having a surrounding of water falls from every cliff dumping into the Lake. 

­­­

Check!!

Below are Headwaters to Above Picture: Avalanche Lake Shhh!

Image result for Avalanche Lake Glacier

If I come back ("If": means I got stuck in MT) or when I come back (I'm coming back to Boise already) there will be more Boeing static to go over. I will be rested, tanned and mosquito bitten. My personal guarantee! Just make sure you treat my hover bike well and don't fall off. 

Thursday, July 2, 2015

The Boeing Market is Psychology 101

A long held assumption from Airbus is bigger will always trump anything better. Even when its own product is actually smaller, it still talks bigger. Boeing is faced with reality just as much as Airbus faces its reality. Boeing is presenting the better is the best model. However, every customer's frontal lobes don't often align with the best intended sentiments. They like to hear a huckster, and go in the tent and watch the fat lady do her thing at the carnival. They just can't help themselves. Its human psychology 101. Impulsive pride overlooks the blemishes, as it goes for the spiel, with some sense for eternal satisfaction.

This is where the airplane market finds itself. One faction establishes a premium, while the other gloats its way into a packed house. The street vendor mentality rules the quick sale, as it bloviates  over talking points as if it were real. People love to hear why buying the knock-off is a shrewd choice. The buyer is more interested in being oh-so-clever, than becoming rooted in the value of becoming oh-so-smart.

The buyer could be  psychologically impaired, as it takes its thinking momentum forward based on unrelenting pride of purchase. The two mega builders have taken different roads for making sales. One depends on the frontal lobe customer pride rationale for its final decision making. Even after all the statistics are absorbed, the mental filters are firmly in place for choosing one over the other. Only when the accountants come back do they realize the psychological momentum has taken a buyer down the wrong road where pride covers the error. The buyer is never wrong is its mantra. "That's the way we always do it", chorus sings out. The deed becomes the company's best practice.

The other builder believes better is best and will win out. That is Boeing's stand.

However, those pesky accountants keep asking questions about  the bottom line. One question keeps popping up from the accountant, how is Ethiopian Airlines doing it?

"What do you know about the airline business, Bean counter?", comes a corporate response. Its the Bloviated Clan speaking from Airbus.

Fortuitously for Boeing, there are decision makers who look at the airline business with a keen eye for the bigger picture, rather than a bigger aircraft girth. The 787 is gaining footing as customers go long with a medium wide body. Boeing hopes the 777X family will become the true wide body supreme machine. Airbus who is partially schizophrenic, wants its A-350 in one market as the fat lady and the other market as the efficient lady. Claiming the A-350-900 is a 787 beater and the A-350-1000 is a 777X beater. This suggests being surrounded by Boeing's five types of  787 and 777's, makes a schizophrenic framer of aircraft very dizzy. Therefore, you may count on Airbus saying anything.

A severe psychological disorder is present when it cannot purposefully build a family model for the Wide Body market segment. Some customers like it that way too. The pride factor of having the biggest airplane appendage dominates its rationale, and giving it momentum. No matter how a competitive manufacturer couches the subject, it becomes, a just because we can logic. Money is out of the conversation at that point, because money is not the issue, pride is the issue.

This psychology pervades travelers as well as the airline maker. The only thing stopping pride is the fall. Therein lies the danger. The fall comes from making assumptions based filtered observations, that are heavily influenced by a predisposition for shiny big objects. The slippery slope has such a structure.

Boeing proposes no slippery slope in which to embellish. It proposes a dedication to proven innovation, which is forward looking through its environmental approach, and operational efficiency (whew). Better air inside and out is the big picture. Boeing products are looking at earths ecology and passenger experience in spite every attempt of inserting more seats, I mentioned the MORE SEAT BANE in a prior blog.

The addiction to pride is like a drug where both manufacturer and customer can't help themselves and must adhere with its steady progression downward in its scheme called "a slow motion fall". Its is advantageous a fork in the road exists for both manufacturers. One goes the high road, which seems a bit harder, and the other goes the long windy low road. As it obviously becomes a bit ambiguous in nature, but pleasant to the senses for any lost sensibility.

Boeing has chosen the difficult high road, which is an outstanding view for manufacturer, airline customer, and passenger. The psychology is found in the product itself and not the sales pitch. As it promotes clean breathable air inside and clean comfortable flight lines outside even during rough air. The sensual awareness results from its innovative spirit built into the aircraft. Space and how you use it, is the final frontier.

   

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

A Contortionist Guide To Wide Bodies

Going wide has started an insatiable appetite for stuffing an airplane with one more seat, because they can. The one more  "syndrome" is a anatomical  gyration governed by the techno terms of "Pitch", width and recline. What if an airplane maker goes wide for an eight seat row from a recommended stack of seats. The advertised builder specs says a 35" pitch makes room for the traveler allowing for a descent amount of recline backwards. Sounds great. Then the per seat data nerd enters the board room unbeknownst to the airplane manufacturer.

"I willing to bet", he states, "we can go nine across in seats with a 31 inch pitch, and spaciously cram 335 passengers on a 240 passenger Dreamliner. My per seat costs of travel will drop out of sight for the airline and we can brag the 787-8 is 40% more efficient than what we did with the 767."

The seat manufacturers were seated at the board room meeting and asked a pertinent question. How do you seat a 100 kilos and 185 cm, or the Passenger Maximum Take-Off Measurement (PMTOM, aka and stated as "Payment Of Money") for any passenger. They quickly came-up with Installing a scale at boarding where each passenger weighs in and is also measured by laser for cubic inch displacement. A limit is established from averages from everyone's displacement of passengers total space and mass. A  composite total is needed for crediting or surcharging the seat they have rented for the trip. I am not nuts, but I have a sense of humor. Please laugh when it's appropriate to do so.

The seat gurus at the table whisper back and forth for a few minutes, then say profoundly, "We can do that, here's how".

"I've got this 185 cm blob of weight which weighs 100 kilos. Stay with me its a story problem from the 5th grade. I've got it, I tell you! Two airplanes traveling towards any destination are going in opposite directions one has a pitch of 31 inches. The other has a pitch of 35 inches. The 35 inch seat pitch plane arrives in Amsterdam on time. The 31 inch seat pitch airplane arrives in Newark, NJ  and late, but full of bowling teams from Australia. Don't loose me here the key component of the story problem is coming now. The 35 inch pitch plane charges at least $1,000 one way, and the bowling teams from Australia pays  $500  for its 31 inch seat pitch, and all the beverages they can consume on a 16 hour flight. The Amsterdam plane traveled from St Louis, Mo. it went with wine for its customers.

The seat manufacturer intern gets excited, "We can make them stand while in semi seated posture. Legs from the waist down angle slightly to the floor. The seat only rest just a small portion of the human bum. Then we recline the upper torso with a 75 degree angle for resting the upper torso. The airplane seat pitch can be reduced to 24" and then you can add another 60 seats on the floor plan and go 400 passengers on a 787-8.

Passengers Seated In The Overhead Luggage Bin
Image result for contortionist
La Tee Da Photography

The question before you with this story problem, is how much revenue is collected from each flight and how much beer is spilled on the Australian flight?

Answers:
$1,000 X 240 =  $240,000 US.
$500 X 335 = $165,500*

*About 1,000 gallons of beer spilled or actually sipped as dead weight with Jet Star.

Who wins: The NJ bowling alley wins, It took in about a million $US from a plane load of Australians flying Jet Star/Qantas. Its 787 has 31" pitch, and then it poured its passengers into its seats calling it a destination revenue maker not an airline winner. The Amsterdam flight just makes better friends and some more money.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

787 Quarter By The Early Numbers

June 30th  is the quarter completed. June is the halfway point for 2015. June has busted out all over as Rogers and Hammerstein would sing it out. Boeing loves it when a plane comes together. The plan was set along time ago but the plane had to be built, so hear it is stock junkies. Its a grand plane, erh plan. The 90 day measuring stick calls out 34 in a 11.3 x 11.3 x 11.3 cadence for the quarter. A few trendy rises with a soft crescendo by quarters end. Its a Vivaldi a concert of the four seasons as we move to  Summer! 

Summer is now, the second quarter is spent.




The Delivery strength in the second quarter showed the 787-9 gaining momentum as it gains orders. More of both are on the way when considering orders and delivery slots. Vivaldi jumps over this Idea with its second quarter spring excellence;


The autumn is the strength of the 787 program as shown in the the chart below at end of second quarter.




Winter will wrap up another good or excellent year as it crystallizes the program for a solid for its customers. The numbers won't lie as to who has the real edge.



Final numbers are rushed towards the end  of December, in a surprised cadence over its competitors. Boeing stays playing-on, much the delight of its customers, who gain flight from its flowing wings. The year will end as "well played" by a virtuoso, and its team of collaborators making, the 787 the "Four Seasons", A Timeless Aircraft.




Time marches on, as we have a grand start to this year's end, while showing the 2nd quarter 787 numbers. You may read these charts during a work break. No one will fault you for listening to Vivaldi. They will think you are working like a surgeon, and you are working with Boeing's precision like concertos called the 787.


* Works In Process Year


Credits: Vivaldi Boston Symphony, All Things 787, Boeing.com and various tracking data sources.

Now Crescendo Winging It



Monday, June 29, 2015

The Carbon War Is Here To Stay

Carbon is a natural element on our planet. It is a very important element which controls the habitability of this planet. We are all prisoners on the planet much like the passengers on a cruise ship. The atmosphere is only so thick. The land can only absorb so much carbon. Permafrost regions of the earth store immense amounts of carbon until it releases during warming trends. A warming trend begins when additional carbon is present without any abatement of its impact in the atmosphere. A vicious planetary heating cycle starts when added carbon into the planet's eco system cannot be absorbed by its natural processes. In fact the earth loses its ability to store carbon as it warms from more atmospheric carbon content. The thin blue line protecting us from above, is no thicker than a sheet of  tissue paper wrapped around a basketball when comparing the earths size to its protective atmospheric layer.

Image result for massive contrails

Virgin Airlines takes carbon seriously. It has made it an objective of reducing its carbon footprint by 30%. Several factors counter this intent. One is the airplane traffic growth, which will quickly overwhelm Virgin's noble stand. Number 2 is the condition where other airlines continue with a flood of older equipment, while nullifying other airlines effort to reduce its carbon emissions. The problem of carbon emission is here to stay. Taxing the carbon emissions footprint is foolish idea, when there isn't a solution yet.  However, making steps of reducing carbon through upgraded equipment is a phase airlines must take. The expansion of air travel has a finite boundary on the planet, and commerce cannot assume infinite growth for its flying customers as a constant.


Recent advances in engine technology and carbon emissions is only the first step, out of many more to come, in order to balance the planet's ability to absorb carbon within its natural cycles. Otherwise we just will get hotter, then burn more electricity on air conditioning, and make more carbon. The top down solution of protecting the atmosphere first is the best start for a solution.

Having more atmospheric carbon suspended absorbs more sunlight and heats us up, They call it green house gasses. Having too little carbon freezes the planet. The planet has a fine balance for humans, and I am not even an environmentalist when saying so. We now have a problem of making our own suffocating hot box from the top down.

The future of flight may become imperiled by these actual carbon progressions. Richard Branson gets It! Virgin Airlines is trying to show the way we can survive, and travel in the air. We, as a population of flyers, can stay airborne longer into the future if all of us recognize every contrail overhead is atmospheric loading of carbon  (green house) gasses. There maybe limits someday, of how many airplanes can exist along with the other carbon loading functions from industry.



Thursday, June 25, 2015

Fracking The Aviation Market

Fracking is a term used for extracting deep oil deposits in well establish rock formation holding an oil reserve. A drill path goes down through to the rock layer, makes a hard turn into the horizontal layer, and then exploits the layered strata with explosions releasing the oil.

The world is divided into two major aviation framers, Boeing and Airbus. The aviation strata Boeing needs to exploit, is Airbus' cadre of customers. Entrenched in hard layers are duration of time familiarity, training cost, and operational convenience. Boeing has breached operational efficiency in the market place, but lacks a fracking technique which would dislodge Airbus customers pumped up by Boeing and vice-versa for Airbus.

The Aviation market grows more fixed than flexible out of billions required for making a change to another frame maker. Qatar has chosen the cream of both framers' crop for its offering. It went with the more is better for installing fixtures in a Qatar aircraft, going Airbus in numbers and Boeing for class type.  The Boeing 737 is the exclusive market model for Southwest Airlines, a mid-sized footprint in the world of travel.

Can an all Airbus Fleet be fracked? The answer is hoped for in this introduction on a fixed market vs a flexible market. A fixed market customer is someone like SouthWest Airlines. A flexible market is the Qatar example even though it’s leaning towards Airbus at this time as it loves the 787 in its fleet.

Fracking the market has its best results during a fleet renewal period.

Every time an aircraft becomes obsolete through time and use an airline needs an explosion changing its preference. An Airbus A320 NEO quickly filled the opportunity gap for its existing customers. Yes, Boeing hesitated, because of the 787 capital outlay in 2010. Boeing didn't frack the Airbus Market five years ago, and it is now paying for it with Airbus Sedimentary customers. The question is pushed forward to the year 2030. The next great fracking will occur in the single aisle market place. Who comes first will lead the way. Boeing must revolutionize the single Aisle Market by 2030. It will frack Airbus sideways unless they counter offer ahead of Boeing.

The developmental pushing and shoving has just started. The A-320 NEO is a placeholder as the name implies. The 737 MAX is a stop gap name as it also implies. Both are adequate, and both fell victim to money spent on other projects first.

In 2030 the airplane words should be a dedication to the single aisle renaissance!

Plastic and engines added to less drag will frack the competitor immensely, releasing its valued customers to the winning framer. Boeing has to plan now for the next paradigm shift.

Opportunity replaces the fear of not doing anything. The new Boeing CEO has his objectives in view long before this is written. In short today's offering is a follow-up to yesterday's ramblings. Boeing is in good hands as it has the best team.


Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Will The Melting Pot Of Boeing Risk Scald Profitabilty

Day two of CEO change management reveals the ugly risks bubbling in Boeing's over arching pot. Risk chips are tossed in quickly before stirring.


  • EXIM banking chip dissolves in the vat.
  • Labor Relation Uncertainty Chip
  • Where Boeing Will Pivot its Chips After McNerney (A.M.) (aka Another Manager)
  • Beyond The Dream comes another risk Chip
  • Risk Chip of Not Doing Anything and remaining in a status quot state
  • Euro Vs The US Dollar Table Chips

Dennis Muilenburg, the new (D.M.), (aka Different Manager)

A chip is not made from a potato, but it is what risk feeds on in a vat of actions a company must take on, so said company stays relevant and survives. The DM must only avert risk when it becomes an unseen condition which can sink the ship. The apparent risk, or what is seen. is what other managers must deal with and avert during their tenure on the company's deck. The DM is informed in a timely manner of seen risks from the crew on deck.

I just love story telling to make a point about complex matters. DM replaces AM in this time change environment. The ground hog is not involved in this matter. AM is the critical mass event reaching Boeing's vulnerability state for all its stake holders. However, DM is a well placed exchange of Ideas coming after AM, and then going through to the next level. Boeing has answers through succession planning, causing a mitigation of any transition nightmares. The real risks is losing its mojo for the future in its "what's next" scenario.

Next is finding the 747-8i  niche location.
Next includes succession planning for all aircraft types, and especially going from from single aisle to a new class of airplane.

Boeing must decide how far they are willing to go in the plastic arena. Boeing must leverage its concepts coming from the likes of blended Wing Bodies. DM must make a decision by 2025 on whether they can leap frog Airbus once more by doing something only Boeing can do. Boeing must have a continuous change philosophy installed or a creed for exceeding anything competitors can evolve from the competitor's R&D. Winning is doing new projects under five years when DM's first shoe drops from an innovation happening.

DM is looking to make sense and then make billions while making sense. Boeing becomes the ultimate video game where only one player can win while playing with its teams online. DM is that video game master. All the other players have roles too, but his is to win! His office now becomes the game stick and console, in a rapidly moving action theme with everything coming at him in no particular order. DM, Its game on!




McNerney Finishes The Last Great Job

The rule of industry is that: every newly appointed CEO has been given a notice of their own future job loss. Once accepting a position as the company's head mentor, the CEO has only five to seven years for feathering its nest before getting out. A CEO must return the company in better condition than when assigned their final position. Boeing's CEO is now leaving at age 65 this next July of 2015. He has made it through the industry gauntlet through keeping faith in Boeing's ability. He has made change when identified, and stayed the course out of his faith with his top to bottom vision. When McNerney starts looking from the top, he will expect to see the CEO's will on the production floor, or at the recent Paris Air Show, and from the gleam coming out of customer’s eyes when taking delivery of a Boeing product from its various plants. That is a snapshot of Jim McNerney's Boeing life cycle coming to an end.


Photo Credit Fitsnews via Alencontre.org-(A Marxist Rag quoting about McNerney "makes more than he pays in Taxes", Duh!)


“The heart will still be beating, the employees will still be cowering, I’ll be working hard,” McNerney said, according to Bloomberg News . “There’s no end in sight. We’re continuing to build a succession plan and alternatives to succeed me eventually, but there’s no discussion of it yet.”

McNerney's tenure was not without some mishap or having to backtrack the processes a few times. Boeing's want of a better way and better results superseded any CEO decision-making. McNerney played the hand dealt him within the constraints coming from all elements found in the World's largest airplane maker's realm. McNerney survived as did Boeing. Sometimes survival is having a victory over its main competitor. The battle will not cease for Boeing, and today the Next CEO is up. Congratulations Jim, Your picture will hang prominently in the Boeing Castle. Staying on top for ten years is a wow factor in any industry.

The next CEO up was notified of his last job is starting soon.

Bloomberg Business:

"Boeing Co.’s Dennis Muilenburg becomes chief executive officer next week with a to-do list of decisions that could reshape the world’s largest plane maker."

Dennis Muilenburg

The 51 year old wants to leave Boeing in better shape than he finds it today. Boeing regained its title as the world's largest aircraft framer after Boeing lost that distinction about five to Seven years back. It has become the World's largest once more, and it represents superior production quantity and superior marketing results. Airbus is seriously challenging Boeing's market arm during the last three years in the single aisle division. However, the wide body division has greater dollar value in sales than Airbus' own single aisle transactions.Wide bodies have made Boeing the king of manufacturing at multiple levels of its production and its over-all cash inflows are recognized as its strength.

Muilenberg, is tasking Boeing's hot button issues first, as he begins riding the aviation Bull. Sikorsky is one of his first plays of involvement in a take-over consideration.

His short list of questions, which is made up from pressing the issue button, that must be accomplished by Boeing in his first five years.

1. Is the continuity of going from 777-300-ER up to 777X, set?
2. Is a 757 replacement necessary for Boeing even just for the sake of aircraft family completeness?
3. What to do with the 747-800 program and where does Boeing Go Next!?
4. How much military does Boeing want to involve itself in?
5. If I'm a done CEO before 2030, what will I have accomplished for the next team up?

The list of urgency is far longer than what this new CEO has previewed in private, as Dennis Muilenberg.  The former CEO, McNerney, did his best, and now will have a distinguished role as a Boeing mentor to the new CEO for a couple of years. Boeing blossomed during this last decade, as a once again World's Largest event. Dennis must now take the company further with its established technology, and not rest on the millennial's coattails, or they will once again see the late 1990's again as Airbus attempts a surge over Boeing's production acumen. 

Monday, June 22, 2015

Ethiopia beating the economic odds

Posted on Monday, 22 June 2015 16:14

The Ethiopian 787 Journal Flows to its Profits

Ethiopia beating the economic odds <<Link




"The aviation story is different. Ethiopia's geographic location and the success of its national airline give it easy access to many global markets.
Ethiopian Airlines flies passengers to 83 international destinations, 49 of them in Africa, and hauls cargo to 24 cities around the globe. It is Africa's fastest growing and most profitable passenger and cargo carrier.
Three years ago, the state-owned but privately-managed airline became the second carrier outside Japan to operate the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, a state-of-the-art passenger jet."

Winging It Predicted this as a feature company back in 2011 and then in 2013.

Winging IT August 2013

"After reading this old Winging It link on LiftnDrag blog, the article goes on to state watch Ethiopian Airlines, because they are best positioned to take advantage  of the 787 on its long legged routes. Little did I know, they would have one 787 catch on fire at London Heathrow, and benched it indefinitely until a resolution is found, or did I know they they would increase its profitability by 178%, and recognize the 787 directly affecting the bottom line by so much! Even with its older aircraft inventory in play everyday. If it sounds like crowing, then so be it, its crowing a little. I can't help but get a little excited on a long shot Airlines on a winning horse, The 787."


Winging It December 11, 2011

"Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."


Saturday, June 20, 2015

Areoflot's 22 DreamLiner Order Going to The Boeing Laundry

Not so fast my friend. The 22 Aeroflot cancelled Dreamliners from Paris are now being discussed with a Boeing plan in mind. Aeroflot said, "Nyet' at Paris. Boeing said, "wait just a darn moment my friends". "Putin Doesn't have the coin of the realm like we do."





Boeing is prepared to help Aeroflot - Russian Airlines resolve the issue of a contract to supply 22 Boeing 787 Dreamliner airliners, Sergei Kravchenko, Boeing's Russia and CIS President, told reporters at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.




Boeing does not want to give Airbus orderbook bragging point and will try a very lucrative financial packaging for AeroFlot. 

Selling Points Played For AeroFlot


  • Buy 22 787 get one free coupon.
  • Frozen Exchange rate for the Ruble at any delivery date/time before 2024
  • In House Boeing Finance from Boeing General Acceptance Corporation BGAC
  • First Time Buyer Cash Back 787 Program Incentive
  • Free access to Boeing's Flying Maintenance Circus BFMC. Aeroflot Fly's it away we come and fix it any time, anywhere and in anyway special.
  • First Tank of Fuel free to fly it home.