My Blog List
Monday, September 28, 2015
Dubai November 8-12 Boeing Senses The Positive
The upcoming Dubai airshow is rapidly becoming the end of year match for what airplane framers crave. Most of all, the loose end orders for Boeing, may come together at the meet. There are several 787 orders in play coming from the East and South East from Dubai's position on the globe. Qantas and China could announce seizable 787 orders. The 777X has been order quiet for some time as the big players have already spoken on the 777X program since the 2013 Dubai Air Show. So what is Boeing excited about? That is the tease and the beauty of this airshow. It's the battle field for commercial airplane. It is also a place to show off Apache helicopters and the P-8, Boeing's super duper snooper Navy Air Force tool. I am for the order book war and how it plays because Boeing has a grin going for the show. Don't forget Single Aisle orders could come to the Dubai dance.
The World Changes With One 787 At A Time
Boeing's indomitable spirit marks the business case with JetStar.
The announced plan was for Jetstar to take on 11 787 in behalf of the Qantas
booking adjustments when they made a Business decision folding its initial 787
order book to a hold ’em position. Is anybody lost at this point? I am but can
explain another take on JetStar's windfall for eleven 787 flying in its fleet.
They had (past tense) A330 routing its network back in 2013. Then came the order
book swap with parent Qantas, who had reached beyond a state of nirvana when
ordering back in the day (2005) for over a hundred 787. Two Bloody Mary's later,
Jetstar gets sloughed some 787. Qantas goes deep into the walk-in financial
freezer. Now Qantas has cleaned-up its business case and are ready to bail out
its 787-9's in the Boeing holding tank.
Today is another 17,520 hours later than 2013 when Jetstar's first
787-8 loaded was loaded with 334 seats and was delivered. It is also a time
when the first "free" (for Qantas) A330 is moved to the parent
operation, Qantas. Those same models may also be the first casualties when infusing
its first bunch of 787-9's into the mold. Say goodbye to A330 from the Qantas
operations deck in five years.
In summary of a clouded explanation for investors, Qantas has
caught up with its business pivot when it realized they were in deep Bull
Kah-Kah. Many, many meetings later, Jetstar is now ready to play full
efficiency dollars with its eleven 787. Qantas is ready to buy full efficiency
787-9's for its stable of aircraft. The head scratching resulted in the lice
being evicted. Questions, anyone?
Saturday, September 26, 2015
Next KC-46 Milestone, Money
On October 1st. The military will
know if budget consideration are on track for the KC-46 program.
Defense News has offered this September
26, 2015 an observation: "Adding to Boeing’s
troubles, service officials warned this month that the Air Force may be forced
to break the KC-46 contract if the Pentagon is slapped with a yearlong continuing
resolution (CR) at the beginning of the fiscal year. If Congress can not
come to a budget agreement by Oct. 1, the Pentagon may be forced to operate
under a long-term CR, a stop-gap spending measure that temporarily funds the
government at prior year levels."
By the way the KC-46 passed its initial
fully loaded system flight test yesterday. This paves the way for testing each
system loaded on the KC-46 during the next steps testing progressions, regardless of
having a money milestone conquered while the military seeks etching money from congress.
The process continues, however, with a lower build rate if Congress does not pull its collective head out of the congressional well. There are several military projects hanging on a budget vote of importance featured in Winging It. KC-46, F-35, and the Navy's DDG1000 program. Money not in place for the programs is the game changer.
The process continues, however, with a lower build rate if Congress does not pull its collective head out of the congressional well. There are several military projects hanging on a budget vote of importance featured in Winging It. KC-46, F-35, and the Navy's DDG1000 program. Money not in place for the programs is the game changer.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
CR Waivers... Waiver???? KC-46/F-35
The Air Force is slipping another
trick past its vaunted programs. They may seek Continuing Resolution
Waivers from the US Congress for two critical programs currently in the breach of development. The KC-46 is
going for its first test flight this weekend and the F-35 is deploying its
Model A to the Military inventory and several other nations while in the midst of some budget controversy.
NDIA Link
This is great news for the programs, if followed up, and
successfully completed. It's my kind of big news on the defense front. However, carving
out budget for its programs is a "Hail Mary" throw at the goal post. It also means the Air Force would be going to the mat for the two different frames and
pushing the programs forward.
Otherwise, it will be stagnation for programs so corrosive as salt on iron.
What If China Was A Launch Customer For MOM
The proverbial Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft could be China swinging for the fences. Remember when the 757 was vogue now it's still
vogue. China came to Boeing this week and got me thinking, why? Somebody must
have something up its sleeve.
The 757 segment is the last untapped Boeing resource for the
decade. China has a need for people movers throughout its continent and its
surrounding region. What better of a way of suppressing the demand, with becoming the launch customer of an all new clean sheet MOM. It would be a 200-270 seat oval
shaped wonder-kin of Boeing. It would establish a 5,000 mile parameter for
China. Seven across dual aisle seating, and as airport compliant as the 737 MAX.
Boeing -Seeking Alpha Graphic
Keep it
secret? You Betcha, you'd better keep it secret. Did China order it? No they
didn't, but the caveat may have been in the 300 plane order China made with
Boeing. How about a little clause of being the launch customer when
Boeing announces the new flying Oval with 777 like wings, 787 like avionics and
engines and Max like Aluminum dynamics (Advanced technology wings and laminar flow characteristics installed).
Call it, ??? I'm working on the moniker. Currently it’s down to:
- Continental
Drift
- The MOMinator
- NapLiner
I never worked in advertising and it shows.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
The China 300 Is What's For Dinner
Three hundred aircraft have been agreed upon in Seattle. It's not
the 300 sounding the deal but the location that underscores the deal. China
came to Seattle with its Nation's President marking the importance for China rather than
Boeing going to China asking for some preferred customer status. This is possibly
more important than the order coming from China.
Comac, a Chinese production attempt, is not ready for China's
emergence into the aviation market. It needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs
China. But China came to Boeing signing away what it wants and needs from
Boeing. That is the most important action taken this year for both partners.
The three hundred undefined orders would suggest the bulk as a single aisle MAX
or NG's. However it also paves the way for follow-on 787 orders not yet
announced. The devil is always in the details.
Perhaps in giving what China wants, Boeing has already moved past
what China wants. A clean way to build Single Aisle NG Aircraft, where Boeing
can amp up Max production in Renton Washington. It can now can sell more Max
down the road in five years. China can now pass a road block when using
Boeing's lifetime achievement expertise for building single aisle, which Comac
lacks. It's a win-win for both giants. There should be some 787 orders in there
for Chinese sweetening. The undefined nature of the Chinese order suggest much
more in the paper work than just 300 airplanes ordered and Boeing manufacturing
in China using Chinese staffing requirements.
Boeing has “Maxed” its plant facility in Washington, and Boeing
pivots toward the orient slicing off the Airbus hoards wanting more and more
from the orient. Make no mistake in thinking Boeing will master the Orient with
this move. It has bought significant time, and a placeholder in the largest
market coming into the world. China will not stop Comac nor its aspirations as an
aircraft player. Boeing knows this all too well. It has its own plans founded
in the near future and is depending on having a technological edge in the
aviation for many years to come. China is expecting to bridge its technological
aviation gap it has surveyed with Boeing over the next ten years. This deal has
limits for each and its in the paper-work.
However, it serves both well during its relevant positions found
in the current market place. Both will win on this deal otherwise China
wouldn't have come to Seattle.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
F-35 Reveal Has Started
US officials: F-35 will outmatch any aircraft in development
Flight Global has started the ball rolling for the F-35 news this
month. September 2015 is both a watershed moment for the Boeing KC-46 and the
Lockheed F-35. Please link up above for Flight Globals report.
“It’s the finest fighter airplane in the world and nothing
compares to it,” Bogdan says. “I’d put this airplane up against any airplane in
the world today, tomorrow and for the next 20 or 30 years and we’ll come out
ahead.”
Bogdan was responding to a question about whether the F-35 could
hold its own against the latest Russian jets, particularly the T-50 that will
reportedly enter service in 2016 in a limited capacity."
Monday, September 21, 2015
Boeing's China Visit Is Not A Tea Party
China is visiting Boeing this week. It is not a political junket
for China's president, Xi Jinping. He is not interested in Seattle's
importation of restaurants in the downtown Seattle area. Xi is looking at what
an auto pen will do to Boeing's order book. A Translator from China relates to
Xi Jinping, "If you push this button it will sign your name here, here,
and here. Viola, China now owns a good chunk of Boeing's production.
The Boeing walk through- meet and greet is underway. The glad
handing promenade is a nonstop tour of the American industrial and
technological engine, China can't wait for current conditions to turn up for
its own aviation juggernaut to catch up. They need aircraft now. Well at least
in the next five years.
This week’s Boeing tour is not exploratory, it's more of a
validation on the production might Boeing has, and it is giving China more
assurance, and yes Boeing can do the Job with China's top leader in the
buildings. The "shop stop" signals a deal will be done this year. It
will be a single aisle barrage splinting up China's domestic expansion. It will
also be a wide body "all-in" stance, since it brings China to the
world. Several airlines like China Southern have already committed to Boeing
through its testing fleet of 787's, using the 787 in long range market, and it
agrees that it is a winner and the foundation for world travel.
The last questions remain for Boeing, "do you want it super-sized
with 787-10's or will the Max -8's be your order today?"
China has a huge thirst at this time. It should be a super-sized
orders for its national carriers. A China order should be an all-in Max line,
complemented by its 787 family of aircraft. If only Winging It had an
"Eager Meter" strapped to Xi Jinping's wrist, I could tell you an
accurate guess on China's Boeing Aspirations. This is not a tea party, but more
of a fortune cookie.
Even Though Five Delivered 787 In September, Boeing makes Guidance
Boeing has delivered by the 21st of September 2015, thirty-one 787
during its third quarter. It has met delivery guidance for the 787 type once
again as stated by averaging 10.33 a month during the whole of the third
quarter with another nine days remaining in September. Boeing is achieving
consecutive quarters meeting guidance since the first of the year.
Even though only five have so far been delivered, in the month of
September 2015, it remains solid that it will continue with a few more 787
deliveries before quarter's end, which indicates Boeing continues a surplus in
production numbers above its own original guidance. Expectations should bring
in about thirty-four 787 during the third quarter as it could add three more
787 during September. It would bring Boeing's monthly delivery on pace, when
considering current production energy on the floor and what is in the Boeing
supply chain. The EX/IM banking issue in the US is affecting delivery
confidence as some customers have Boeing aircraft ready for delivery, but no
banking resources available from the EX/IM quandary coming from the US
Congress.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Postoperative Debriefing
Everything went well as in text
book well. Now it's back to limited scope work out on WI. The veritable
progress of aviation’s renaissance is back on track. Since I don't follow news
during in shop maintenance, it's a protocol thing, I will spend 24 more
hours getting back in the saddle again. Therefore,
I will relate to what's going on with Boeing. A ton of things to be exact. I am
expecting another order breakthrough announcement in the next 60 days. The
Dubai meetings have a pre announced slow sales activity benchmark. However,
something in the month of November is percolating up even though it may be a non-Dubai
activity announcement. The year's total for the 787 orders will be respectable
and interesting I am stilling leaning towards a 100 787 order year by
December 31, 2015.
787
production goals are going to exceed guidance. Boeing is coming in for a 2015
big finish. I am anxious on my predictions and how it plays out. Acting as a de
facto Boeing executive, my laser pointer says Boeing is going to continue its
positive march in forward for market share in spite of the Airbus single aisle
flurry it just put together with its key single aisle customers.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Heads-Up Display
I am sorry to announce that I will have some
repair and down time! The Doctor and engineers want to install a new operating
system near to the center of my heart. It will make me fly a little longer. My
sarcasm and what little wit I have left was promised as an intact feature and will
remain operational after this system is installed and implemented. I should
be down for maybe, up to several weeks according to the KC-46 program heads. After
which, I will come out with parachute packed and safety net installed. If it
works, I will land back here at Winging It soon. Thanks for reading and
watching in advance, over this site while I'm down. Just keep clicking, there
is a lot of blogging within Winging It for your further confusion. You will
just have to get back to work. There is no other way, but work, it's your job!
Last of its kind before the Jet age. A Montana Teepee burner at Fort Missoula Historical Park. A complete train set and station sits behind me. It was spectacular when they put on a log afterburner show back in the day of the lumber mill. It was a wood burning jet engine that never flew.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
First 737 Max In the Renton Assembly Line III
The 737 Max in this Boeing picture is at the
start of line III. In front of its nose is open space going to the end of its
ground journey. Notice the wing tip feathers. Just for fun count the number of
people in this frame. I expanded the photo on screen and found 17 people. I may
have missed a few.
KC-46 Will Have An Air Force Problem Reveal Next Week (Updated \ Video)
Not only is the KC-46 on the docket for next week’s military
problem reveal, the F-35 often criticized program will be there too. It’s
perhaps the most important discussion coming from the US Air Force affecting
the US military industrial complex in a long time. The stock market will parse
and analyze words spoken.
Aviation junkies must memorize these Air Force names, Lt.
Gen. Christopher Bogdan for the F-35, and Brig. Gen. Duke Richardson for the
KC-46. They hold sway over the future of these two critical
programs. They have been tasked with oversight and act as the canary in the
mine if something falls short of delivering what was promised.
Many doubts are raised about the F-35 meeting and exceeding fourth
generation fighters such as the F-16 and other foreign adversarial fighter
airframes.
What is purported on the F-35:
General Mark A Welsh III: AFA conference
Chief Of Staff USAF Washington, DC
Chief Of Staff USAF Washington, DC
Counters these arguments listed below and makes the F-35 case during the video.
Check The 36:12 minute mark on video about the F-35 Program Status.
Standard complaints offered on the sideline:
- Its falls short
to the F-16 in air to air close combat.
- It has had
encountered too many program faults
- It will not have
close combat air superiority over the latest generation foreign fighters
- It compromised
its air frame, giving up performance for both STOVL and Carrier based
fighter configuration for the Navy and Marines. One concept does not
always fit all.
- Concurrency is a
Military STD on its building complex.
This
now brings us to the Boeing KC-46 Air Force Report Card. The fixed cost has
been an impediment to Boeing trial and error approach during development, with
a follow-on air tanker from a commercial frame. Its error margin is already gone
when installing critical systems. When delivery time is a key element for the
military, it becomes a key cost to the supplier (Boeing) to make it on time.
- The KC-46 needs
and error free flight test period
- The Air Force
Should Tell Us straight Up Were The KC now stands
- Boeing can
deliver and succeed on this key project but it will take an investor hit
because of it.
The
Air Force Presentation next week will sway the Boeing stock market one way or
another, when it comes to the KC-46 project. Lockheed's F-35 won't have a final
answer until it goes to combat someday. However, early reports indicate the
Marines have a winner. It is not known how well the F-35 super-secret internals
will buy back many advantages in aerial combat, or how it can be used as an interface
within the total combat arena assisting old technology.
Its
multi-systems and pilot helmet controls can help fourth generation fighters
with what they lack in the combat arena. The F-35's stealth gives it a longbow
advantage for incoming fighters 100 miles out. Close combat may not be its
specialty, but its added combat values nullify the need for close combat
encounters. The Air Force must learn how to leverage the F-35 technology into
air superiority, and that may take hands-on and brains-on time in the cockpit.
The military has to catch up to this technology and not look back at the old
paradigm of the F-16 as the role model. This is a different animal.
Latest News: 9/15/2016
Budget Gridlock Looms Over AFA Next weeks news added.
Friday, September 11, 2015
GE-9X Makes A Break Through With Its CMC
The 777X9 needs an engine. Boeing has chosen
GE for the honors for that task. They have named it the GE9X reflecting a
developmental label for the 7779X program. What is so different with this
engine over the 777-300ER GE90 engine is that it will be a lighter, smaller by
inches and made with stuff GE has been working on for ten years. The material
is called CMC or a carbon ceramic material that is lighter thinner and heat
resistant in a super-hot environment. This means, a more efficient Jet engine
developing 102,000 pounds of thrust compared with 115,000 pounds of thrust with
the 777-300ER. Engine Diameter will be 133.5 inches across. Sixteen blades are
needed for the main fan. It will have a 10% fuel efficiency over prior models
of the GE90 configured engines. A 5% improved specific
fuel consumption (SFC) versus any twin-aisle engine at service entry.
Regarding the CMC testing just reported. GE
has advanced its CMC materials used for fan blades and internal parts while
subjecting it in duration testing and gaining such positive results it will
proceed forward with those parts in the upcoming flying tests for the GE9X
engine on the 747 test bed. The remark coming out of duration parts testing, indicated
the materials retained a pristine composition after 2,800 hours of undergoing
the duress of heat and pressures exceeding engine operational conditions. Ten
years of research for the CMC material has paid off for GE. It is proceeding
with making a better engine for the 777X9 program, and may spin-off more
advances for the 787 program after it successfully testing out it engine building
propositions for the 777-X9 program.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
B of A analyst Says: A Gap Filler Is A Good Place For Boeing Replacing Its 757
Bank of America analyst have recommended Boeing build the
consummate tweener. A 757 2.0 version. Boeing could in one sweep of the design
board stop all the nonsense found in the A-320 Neo program. A new class of
Boeing with the possibility of 1,000 of its type in sales could be coming.
Seeking Alpha has
Reported:
Boeing has said it is considering
a new jet that would fit a niche between its single-aisle 737 and long-range
787 Dreamliner, and the BofA analysts find "a strong case" for Boeing
to go ahead, estimating a market for ~2,700 planes from airlines to replace
older planes or swap in for inefficient, long-range jets that they are
currently using for medium-range flights.
However, the analysts
say Boeing's ability to recover its cost of capital on the program would depend
on executing a more cost effective production method than the 787, which has
struggled with high production costs building the mostly carbon-fiber composite
jet.
A Few Days Off Brings Us To : The F-35
"Today there are 126 F-35s of various models in service (plus 19 test aircraft); by the end of 2019, that will skyrocket to 493. “When we have those 493 airplanes out in the field in 2019, guess how many of them will be in what I consider to be the right configuration?” Bogdan asked the ComDef conference here. “Not. A. One. Every one of the airplanes coming off the production line today and coming off the production line for the next two and a half years, plus all the airplanes we’ve built already, will need some form of modification to get them up to the full capability that we promised the warfighter. That is a massive undertaking..”
So says, Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan, program executive officer (PEO) for the F-35.
This is from an intensive series of articles supplied by"Breaking Defense".
Currently exciting news comes from Italy: Via Defense News
So says, Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan, program executive officer (PEO) for the F-35.
This is from an intensive series of articles supplied by"Breaking Defense".
Currently exciting news comes from Italy: Via Defense News
In summary
Italian interest have built or should say assembled its first F-35 at an
airport plant, and rolled it out the door. It flew off for an hour and
twenty-two minutes. How about that, it's a F-35 project milestone?
Now comes the entanglement of production the F-35 finds itself in,
through the concept called "concurrency". They were right starting
the word with "Con", as in con job. The above Bogdan quote best
describes concurrency at its peak. "Not A One", is like any other
F-35. Bits and pieces litter the production trail, marking a project falling
apart along the production way. The mitigation of the problem is found with block
production runs, hoping containment stays within each block. However, containment
of production progress, within a concurrent plan allows seepage flowing into any
block when having daily updates applied to anyone's model on-the-line!
Sad Sack
is defending America from the production floor. Before "anyone" buys
the next bomb shelter, there is some hope for future military programs. Concurrency
is a buzzword waiting
for the next military industrial complex idea. It will be retired by a new
conceptual phrase, perhaps, "Next Fighter Up". The sum of all changes
has to reach a culmination where all fighters are consistent within not a block
but through entire division of military applications and concept.
Starting with one frame, and applying that frame to three different
applications is a nightmare. The Air Force, Marine, and Navy is a concurrent
design flaw concept. The Marines affect both the Navy and Air Force potential
capability. The Marine design must adapt a central fan for STOVL operations.
The Carrier version is beefed-up and heavier than the Air Force version. The
Air Force version is limited on speed and agility of what an advanced fighter
could have been if it had not been penalized by the Navy and Marine versions in
base designs. The Concurrent Three Musketeer sentiments flows with "A One for all and all for
one," mess.
The limitations arrive with having flying characteristics marginally
different than the F-16. There are faster more nimble fighters available as
adversaries. However, they lack the electronic sophistications of the F-35
which gives them "internal" air superiority, and a very long reach with
some invisibility.
This brings us to the biggest problem, internal computer codes
that have to have so many updates. The code corrections are awaiting its implementation
while in testing mode, assuring program stability and validation. The "main
edge" over other adversarial aircraft is scattered all over the concurrent
production floor within each "Block model" having a different "Block code version", installed controlling its secret military platforms. It is reaching its final giant Cluster F*** and then it will fly concurrently with Block 11, as its role model.
What the military and Lockheed are now doing for these dismal
concurrent conditions is sweeping up the technological crumbs that were swept
off the table after each "Block Release".
Sad Sack
is defending America from the production floor. Before "anyone" buys
the next bomb shelter, there is some hope for future military programs. Concurrency
is a buzzword waiting
for the next military industrial complex idea. It will be retired by a new
conceptual phrase, perhaps, "Next Fighter Up". The sum of all changes
has to reach a culmination where all fighters are consistent within not a block
but through entire division of military applications and concept.
Monday, September 7, 2015
What Came First A Wing Or a Bird?
Answer: The Wing Plant
Boeing Building Business is alive and well in Everett. This Spring time photo shows the airplane will be built. The wing will roll out on a specialized carrier frame rolling into the 777 manufacturing site straight into the production building.
Note the orange or yellow colors of cranes in the background (center back of roof line). This is the wing plant under construction just behind the World's largest building. The Wing center remains dwarfed by the main show in the front of this photo.
It will receive the title of World's Largest Twin Engine Passenger Jet. It will be built in the World's Largest Building next to the Word's Largest Wing Manufacturing Facility. Records are made, to be broken. Today is Boeing's day as it embarks on a fanciful journey of airplane building, because it can. There is no glory in accomplishing what it can do anyways, as Airbus would have you believe. There is only glory in doing what no one else can do. Build planes that are needed for the existing market.
Boeing Building Business is alive and well in Everett. This Spring time photo shows the airplane will be built. The wing will roll out on a specialized carrier frame rolling into the 777 manufacturing site straight into the production building.
Note the orange or yellow colors of cranes in the background (center back of roof line). This is the wing plant under construction just behind the World's largest building. The Wing center remains dwarfed by the main show in the front of this photo.
It will receive the title of World's Largest Twin Engine Passenger Jet. It will be built in the World's Largest Building next to the Word's Largest Wing Manufacturing Facility. Records are made, to be broken. Today is Boeing's day as it embarks on a fanciful journey of airplane building, because it can. There is no glory in accomplishing what it can do anyways, as Airbus would have you believe. There is only glory in doing what no one else can do. Build planes that are needed for the existing market.
Sunday, September 6, 2015
Boeing Goes For Extra Space With Its Starliner
Space the final frontier, is Boeing's new Florida gig. They will build its Starliner in Florida on-site near the launch cape. They have to build it because there already a rendering of the spacecraft.
Its really big tub taking on an Apollo motif. What it can carry is a full space station crew and large amounts of space station type cargo. It's a sole source project for the ISS. Boeing with this sketch is not going to Mars or around the Moon. It could carry and plant small satellites into orbit during a crew change out run to the ISS while orbiting. The Starliner is not breaching new technology in its approach but enhance the old technology by making it bigger, more durable and well suited for its mission. Making the US space program relevant with the ISS mission.
The importance of this demonstration is for American industry, which can once again re-enter the space age filling a mission gap existing since the space shuttle was mothballed by NASA. It also gives another domestic industry a step into the space age, where it could later design follow-on long range capsules for a Mars trip. Boeing will have gained a real bench mark experience through this Starliner project that could lead to building a Mars capsule, and for its return with a same unit from Mars.
Its really big tub taking on an Apollo motif. What it can carry is a full space station crew and large amounts of space station type cargo. It's a sole source project for the ISS. Boeing with this sketch is not going to Mars or around the Moon. It could carry and plant small satellites into orbit during a crew change out run to the ISS while orbiting. The Starliner is not breaching new technology in its approach but enhance the old technology by making it bigger, more durable and well suited for its mission. Making the US space program relevant with the ISS mission.
The importance of this demonstration is for American industry, which can once again re-enter the space age filling a mission gap existing since the space shuttle was mothballed by NASA. It also gives another domestic industry a step into the space age, where it could later design follow-on long range capsules for a Mars trip. Boeing will have gained a real bench mark experience through this Starliner project that could lead to building a Mars capsule, and for its return with a same unit from Mars.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
Boeing Builds Worlds Largest Airplane (errrh Twin Engine)
Every headline I take with a grain of salt as
misleading. The recent Headline oft repeated Goes like this:
Boeing 777-9X: World's Biggest Jet
This example of a headline is balderdash in the back pasture. So
let's get this straight from the get go, we are talking "Twin Engine
People", quoted from Yosemite Sam's cartoon series. The engines are bigger
with two identical cans hung from the enormous wing which extend 235 feet in
unflappable symmetry. Did you know the engine cowling leading edge will have
Laminar Flow Technology, patented by Boeing and shared with GE. For those who
don't care, I'll explain it anyways because you stumbled onto Winging It. Start
with dimples on golf balls which make 'em fly further on the driving range with
your new monster headed driver making you into an Arnold Palmer. Go to the
aircraft body maker and lifting surface gurus and they say we've done it and
patented it already. Boeing put edges on the Horizontal and Vertical leading
edges and have done some golf-ball like tricking on its 787-9's and next the
787-10 model.
They call it the Laminar Flow Technology Prominently Installed
Somewhere Serious (LFT-PISS). Remember
the old Spoilers on some race cars in the 70's with those awful looking wings
welded, bolted, or glued on the back of a car. They called those
"Spoilers". The really spoiled the looks of a race car on a short
track. Laminar flow is now added to the Jet engine opening reducing drag, and
you can't even really see it unless you are a maintenance guy with a scrub
brush looking for bug splotches on certain surfaces. Digress I must, because
people are expecting something World's Largest to happen, but it really bugs me
about any headline pimping and bugs have to be accounted for in such an
airplane as Boeing is building. They are going from a fly paper airplane to fly
swatter sized Airbus smasher with its new 777X build. When they start making
parts it's no longer a fly-paper airplane, it will include the LiftnPiss system.
Moving forward with intellectual commentary is the sole source of
any humor. Boeing has Sole Sourced the 77X trump card thrown down on the
industry. Everyone in the industry is blinking feverishly at the concept. You
don't build a Wing Plant in Everett Washington state unless you are holding
nothing but Aces as Trump cards in the game of Airplane poker. Say Goodbye
A-350-1000 and say good-bye, dare I say, A350-900, as Boeing backhands them
with a better product. Wide Body buyers are stunned. They bought Airbus
already, hook line and sinker. Fleet renewal just took on a new definition from
the 777X. It will replace the following aircraft in the next order round for
all customers. The 747, A350-1000, A350-900, and A380 as the 777X will fit into
nearly all high density airports.
Boeing has maximize the Twin Engine Concept (TEC). It’s the final pin Boeing has inserted
into the Airbus Voodoo doll, ouch. TEC is
here to stay and four engines is so 1950's for both big and small types.
Late 1950's Boeing 707
Friday, September 4, 2015
Oshkosh Defense Replaces Hummer: Primer
For those of you living under a
rock. The Hummer productions is no more. China bought the mold. However, before
going gonzo crazy over its demise. Stop drop and roll infantry style. The
Oshkosh defense has a suite of combat vehicles starting with the L-ATV. It's
not your kids four wheeling ATV. It looks more like a BLM fire truck.
The infantry will have to develop new combat tactics for its new
equipment. Interurban or on a rocky ridge, the L-ATV is imposing compared with your own recreational ATV, where is was possibly made in China.
Oshkosh no longer is about aviation and shows, it's about defending our
country.
Oshkosh L-ATV Main View
The Silver Bullet Kills Four Engine Monsters
Recently, Boeing has closed its 777X design phase, so it can proceed with its build of the first of its type. The 777X will be well suited to fit inside of all 747-8 slots at the jet way. It will carry similar passenger groupings within high density market demand, with over 400 passengers. The 747-8i typically carries under 400 passengers on the majority of its routes. The 777-9X could become an Air Force One for some nation's security plans its so large and can fly so far.
In 2013 Boeing knew the handwriting on the wall for its 747-8 program. It was spiraling downward and would have remnant aircraft orders by 2020. Currently it is taking a production step downward where it will go to about one a month. The 747-8F program received a note from management that four were cancelled by Japan Airlines due to consideration for its own needs for freight traffic. The freight segment is Boeing's most robust order engine for the 747.
The A-380 has finally stagnated its order book as it stalled order expansion by 2013 as well. Airports can't reconfigure fast enough to except new numbers for its type. A Boeing observation made before the first A-380 was ever delivered. The aircraft had its own market constraint. It was set up for failure from the start. However, Airbus made bank on promoting its ego with the World's largest passenger airplane for the last decade. The stalled Airbus order book for the A-380 has no airport support.
This brings us to the 777-9X where in a few years since its announcement in 2013, it has again made year 2013 stick out, where over 300 hundred of the 777X types has been ordered, matching the venerable A-380 with its 10 year order book in only two years. Only fifty -Five A-380 have been ordered since 2013.
The 400 million dollar aircraft has set its production anchor with a design freeze and parts making has started for the first of many aircraft rolling forward. Its wing plant is a shell, but rapidly reaching its construction climax. The program progress has reported its progress wheel is turning "oh so slowly, but proceeding oh so finely".
Wikipedia Chart
In 2013 Boeing knew the handwriting on the wall for its 747-8 program. It was spiraling downward and would have remnant aircraft orders by 2020. Currently it is taking a production step downward where it will go to about one a month. The 747-8F program received a note from management that four were cancelled by Japan Airlines due to consideration for its own needs for freight traffic. The freight segment is Boeing's most robust order engine for the 747.
Boeing Photo
This brings us to the 777-9X where in a few years since its announcement in 2013, it has again made year 2013 stick out, where over 300 hundred of the 777X types has been ordered, matching the venerable A-380 with its 10 year order book in only two years. Only fifty -Five A-380 have been ordered since 2013.
Wikipedia Chart
The 400 million dollar aircraft has set its production anchor with a design freeze and parts making has started for the first of many aircraft rolling forward. Its wing plant is a shell, but rapidly reaching its construction climax. The program progress has reported its progress wheel is turning "oh so slowly, but proceeding oh so finely".
Tim Clark CEO Emirates
Why I bought the 777X
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Boeing Updates Its Order Book
Yikes, on Labor Day its time to relax and not cancel 4-747-8's off the Order Books. Go to the self explaining Order Book at Boeing .com
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
The KC-46 Will Shadow Boeing Stock Investments
The KC-46, "Pegasus Project" has had its ups and downs
and delays. Its fixed cost lid directly affects the Boeing stock report. The
trouble with the KC-46 project influences Boeing stock can only change when its military outliers change within nominal forces. The long term stock outlook is only an
opinion tied with the roller coaster approach of the KC-46 status. In time: as
mistakes, glitches and money are retired on the project, Boeing stock should
shape up as a stable investment considering those short term indices. The long term
is predicated on long term outcomes for the KC-46 project.
Boeing is at a critical point for the project. What is at stake is
its reputation and its relationship with military programs like the LRB (Long
Range Bomber). There is some residual risk spinoff downward if the project duds
out. Or does not meet the military's expectation.
The above link gives the "Bidness" perspective on the
KC-46 project.
"Following the earnings release, analysts had
pointed out that the program could prove to be an impediment to growth for
Boeing’s top and bottom line, if there is another delay in the program. The
company had lowered its full-year 2015 (FY15) earnings estimate from
$8.20–8.40, to $7.70–7.90 to reflect the $0.77 per share impact of the charge
realized during the quarter."
"While the program could adversely affect
the company’s relation with the Department of Defense, we believe that other
programs, such as the P-8A surveillance aircraft, would keep the relationship
between the two entities strong. The company was reported to have received a
contract worth $1.49 billion for the delivery of 13 more of the P-8A aircraft
on August 27, showing high demand for the offering from Boeing’s DSS
segment."
I had referred to Boeing's defense
posture with its DOD's P-8A success as an example Boeing can deliver on a
Military timeline as Winging It had mentioned in an earlier blog. Boeing's reassurance for
KC-46 project is often stated by Boeing talking heads. Boeing has just
announced another delay after those reassurances from mistakes made with the
refueling systems. Thus rattling investor confidence at this time.
The time is a speck on the project which is soon to be
updated. The real concern about time is losing another KC-46 year due to setbacks
at this juncture. That is becoming less likely each day. When the first
KC-Pegasus successfully flies fully loaded in an operational status this fall, it is only
two months late in the the over-all picture. Then Boeing will exhale, and investors will clamor
once again with Boeing's military outlier against the company as a whole. It's wait and
see time for Boeing and the Pegasus. A swing vote by investors will occur by
year's end after its first fully operational flight.
A CAPA Report Must Read
CAPA: has come out specifically with a snapshot of the Big Three fleet status and its purchasing intent. It demonstrates an active competition of the world's big two airplane manufacturers. Both Boring and Airbus has set anchors in the American market. Please link up with CAPA: and see the subtle shifts in its competitive fleet representations within the big three, and ferret out Airline strategy by its future intent for placing orders on aircraft.
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