Tuesday, June 30, 2015

787 Quarter By The Early Numbers

June 30th  is the quarter completed. June is the halfway point for 2015. June has busted out all over as Rogers and Hammerstein would sing it out. Boeing loves it when a plane comes together. The plan was set along time ago but the plane had to be built, so hear it is stock junkies. Its a grand plane, erh plan. The 90 day measuring stick calls out 34 in a 11.3 x 11.3 x 11.3 cadence for the quarter. A few trendy rises with a soft crescendo by quarters end. Its a Vivaldi a concert of the four seasons as we move to  Summer! 

Summer is now, the second quarter is spent.

The Delivery strength in the second quarter showed the 787-9 gaining momentum as it gains orders. More of both are on the way when considering orders and delivery slots. Vivaldi jumps over this Idea with its second quarter spring excellence;

The autumn is the strength of the 787 program as shown in the the chart below at end of second quarter.

Winter will wrap up another good or excellent year as it crystallizes the program for a solid for its customers. The numbers won't lie as to who has the real edge.

Final numbers are rushed towards the end  of December, in a surprised cadence over its competitors. Boeing stays playing-on, much the delight of its customers, who gain flight from its flowing wings. The year will end as "well played" by a virtuoso, and its team of collaborators making, the 787 the "Four Seasons", A Timeless Aircraft.

Time marches on, as we have a grand start to this year's end, while showing the 2nd quarter 787 numbers. You may read these charts during a work break. No one will fault you for listening to Vivaldi. They will think you are working like a surgeon, and you are working with Boeing's precision like concertos called the 787.

* Works In Process Year

Credits: Vivaldi Boston Symphony, All Things 787, Boeing.com and various tracking data sources.

Now Crescendo Winging It

Monday, June 29, 2015

The Carbon War Is Here To Stay

Carbon is a natural element on our planet. It is a very important element which controls the habitability of this planet. We are all prisoners on the planet much like the passengers on a cruise ship. The atmosphere is only so thick. The land can only absorb so much carbon. Permafrost regions of the earth store immense amounts of carbon until it releases during warming trends. A warming trend begins when additional carbon is present without any abatement of its impact in the atmosphere. A vicious planetary heating cycle starts when added carbon into the planet's eco system cannot be absorbed by its natural processes. In fact the earth loses its ability to store carbon as it warms from more atmospheric carbon content. The thin blue line protecting us from above, is no thicker than a sheet of  tissue paper wrapped around a basketball when comparing the earths size to its protective atmospheric layer.

Image result for massive contrails

Virgin Airlines takes carbon seriously. It has made it an objective of reducing its carbon footprint by 30%. Several factors counter this intent. One is the airplane traffic growth, which will quickly overwhelm Virgin's noble stand. Number 2 is the condition where other airlines continue with a flood of older equipment, while nullifying other airlines effort to reduce its carbon emissions. The problem of carbon emission is here to stay. Taxing the carbon emissions footprint is foolish idea, when there isn't a solution yet.  However, making steps of reducing carbon through upgraded equipment is a phase airlines must take. The expansion of air travel has a finite boundary on the planet, and commerce cannot assume infinite growth for its flying customers as a constant.

Recent advances in engine technology and carbon emissions is only the first step, out of many more to come, in order to balance the planet's ability to absorb carbon within its natural cycles. Otherwise we just will get hotter, then burn more electricity on air conditioning, and make more carbon. The top down solution of protecting the atmosphere first is the best start for a solution.

Having more atmospheric carbon suspended absorbs more sunlight and heats us up, They call it green house gasses. Having too little carbon freezes the planet. The planet has a fine balance for humans, and I am not even an environmentalist when saying so. We now have a problem of making our own suffocating hot box from the top down.

The future of flight may become imperiled by these actual carbon progressions. Richard Branson gets It! Virgin Airlines is trying to show the way we can survive, and travel in the air. We, as a population of flyers, can stay airborne longer into the future if all of us recognize every contrail overhead is atmospheric loading of carbon  (green house) gasses. There maybe limits someday, of how many airplanes can exist along with the other carbon loading functions from industry.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Fracking The Aviation Market

Fracking is a term used for extracting deep oil deposits in well establish rock formation holding an oil reserve. A drill path goes down through to the rock layer, makes a hard turn into the horizontal layer, and then exploits the layered strata with explosions releasing the oil.

The world is divided into two major aviation framers, Boeing and Airbus. The aviation strata Boeing needs to exploit, is Airbus' cadre of customers. Entrenched in hard layers are duration of time familiarity, training cost, and operational convenience. Boeing has breached operational efficiency in the market place, but lacks a fracking technique which would dislodge Airbus customers pumped up by Boeing and vice-versa for Airbus.

The Aviation market grows more fixed than flexible out of billions required for making a change to another frame maker. Qatar has chosen the cream of both framers' crop for its offering. It went with the more is better for installing fixtures in a Qatar aircraft, going Airbus in numbers and Boeing for class type.  The Boeing 737 is the exclusive market model for Southwest Airlines, a mid-sized footprint in the world of travel.

Can an all Airbus Fleet be fracked? The answer is hoped for in this introduction on a fixed market vs a flexible market. A fixed market customer is someone like SouthWest Airlines. A flexible market is the Qatar example even though it’s leaning towards Airbus at this time as it loves the 787 in its fleet.

Fracking the market has its best results during a fleet renewal period.

Every time an aircraft becomes obsolete through time and use an airline needs an explosion changing its preference. An Airbus A320 NEO quickly filled the opportunity gap for its existing customers. Yes, Boeing hesitated, because of the 787 capital outlay in 2010. Boeing didn't frack the Airbus Market five years ago, and it is now paying for it with Airbus Sedimentary customers. The question is pushed forward to the year 2030. The next great fracking will occur in the single aisle market place. Who comes first will lead the way. Boeing must revolutionize the single Aisle Market by 2030. It will frack Airbus sideways unless they counter offer ahead of Boeing.

The developmental pushing and shoving has just started. The A-320 NEO is a placeholder as the name implies. The 737 MAX is a stop gap name as it also implies. Both are adequate, and both fell victim to money spent on other projects first.

In 2030 the airplane words should be a dedication to the single aisle renaissance!

Plastic and engines added to less drag will frack the competitor immensely, releasing its valued customers to the winning framer. Boeing has to plan now for the next paradigm shift.

Opportunity replaces the fear of not doing anything. The new Boeing CEO has his objectives in view long before this is written. In short today's offering is a follow-up to yesterday's ramblings. Boeing is in good hands as it has the best team.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Will The Melting Pot Of Boeing Risk Scald Profitabilty

Day two of CEO change management reveals the ugly risks bubbling in Boeing's over arching pot. Risk chips are tossed in quickly before stirring.

  • EXIM banking chip dissolves in the vat.
  • Labor Relation Uncertainty Chip
  • Where Boeing Will Pivot its Chips After McNerney (A.M.) (aka Another Manager)
  • Beyond The Dream comes another risk Chip
  • Risk Chip of Not Doing Anything and remaining in a status quot state
  • Euro Vs The US Dollar Table Chips

Dennis Muilenburg, the new (D.M.), (aka Different Manager)

A chip is not made from a potato, but it is what risk feeds on in a vat of actions a company must take on, so said company stays relevant and survives. The DM must only avert risk when it becomes an unseen condition which can sink the ship. The apparent risk, or what is seen. is what other managers must deal with and avert during their tenure on the company's deck. The DM is informed in a timely manner of seen risks from the crew on deck.

I just love story telling to make a point about complex matters. DM replaces AM in this time change environment. The ground hog is not involved in this matter. AM is the critical mass event reaching Boeing's vulnerability state for all its stake holders. However, DM is a well placed exchange of Ideas coming after AM, and then going through to the next level. Boeing has answers through succession planning, causing a mitigation of any transition nightmares. The real risks is losing its mojo for the future in its "what's next" scenario.

Next is finding the 747-8i  niche location.
Next includes succession planning for all aircraft types, and especially going from from single aisle to a new class of airplane.

Boeing must decide how far they are willing to go in the plastic arena. Boeing must leverage its concepts coming from the likes of blended Wing Bodies. DM must make a decision by 2025 on whether they can leap frog Airbus once more by doing something only Boeing can do. Boeing must have a continuous change philosophy installed or a creed for exceeding anything competitors can evolve from the competitor's R&D. Winning is doing new projects under five years when DM's first shoe drops from an innovation happening.

DM is looking to make sense and then make billions while making sense. Boeing becomes the ultimate video game where only one player can win while playing with its teams online. DM is that video game master. All the other players have roles too, but his is to win! His office now becomes the game stick and console, in a rapidly moving action theme with everything coming at him in no particular order. DM, Its game on!

McNerney Finishes The Last Great Job

The rule of industry is that: every newly appointed CEO has been given a notice of their own future job loss. Once accepting a position as the company's head mentor, the CEO has only five to seven years for feathering its nest before getting out. A CEO must return the company in better condition than when assigned their final position. Boeing's CEO is now leaving at age 65 this next July of 2015. He has made it through the industry gauntlet through keeping faith in Boeing's ability. He has made change when identified, and stayed the course out of his faith with his top to bottom vision. When McNerney starts looking from the top, he will expect to see the CEO's will on the production floor, or at the recent Paris Air Show, and from the gleam coming out of customer’s eyes when taking delivery of a Boeing product from its various plants. That is a snapshot of Jim McNerney's Boeing life cycle coming to an end.

Photo Credit Fitsnews via Alencontre.org-(A Marxist Rag quoting about McNerney "makes more than he pays in Taxes", Duh!)

“The heart will still be beating, the employees will still be cowering, I’ll be working hard,” McNerney said, according to Bloomberg News . “There’s no end in sight. We’re continuing to build a succession plan and alternatives to succeed me eventually, but there’s no discussion of it yet.”

McNerney's tenure was not without some mishap or having to backtrack the processes a few times. Boeing's want of a better way and better results superseded any CEO decision-making. McNerney played the hand dealt him within the constraints coming from all elements found in the World's largest airplane maker's realm. McNerney survived as did Boeing. Sometimes survival is having a victory over its main competitor. The battle will not cease for Boeing, and today the Next CEO is up. Congratulations Jim, Your picture will hang prominently in the Boeing Castle. Staying on top for ten years is a wow factor in any industry.

The next CEO up was notified of his last job is starting soon.

Bloomberg Business:

"Boeing Co.’s Dennis Muilenburg becomes chief executive officer next week with a to-do list of decisions that could reshape the world’s largest plane maker."

Dennis Muilenburg

The 51 year old wants to leave Boeing in better shape than he finds it today. Boeing regained its title as the world's largest aircraft framer after Boeing lost that distinction about five to Seven years back. It has become the World's largest once more, and it represents superior production quantity and superior marketing results. Airbus is seriously challenging Boeing's market arm during the last three years in the single aisle division. However, the wide body division has greater dollar value in sales than Airbus' own single aisle transactions.Wide bodies have made Boeing the king of manufacturing at multiple levels of its production and its over-all cash inflows are recognized as its strength.

Muilenberg, is tasking Boeing's hot button issues first, as he begins riding the aviation Bull. Sikorsky is one of his first plays of involvement in a take-over consideration.

His short list of questions, which is made up from pressing the issue button, that must be accomplished by Boeing in his first five years.

1. Is the continuity of going from 777-300-ER up to 777X, set?
2. Is a 757 replacement necessary for Boeing even just for the sake of aircraft family completeness?
3. What to do with the 747-800 program and where does Boeing Go Next!?
4. How much military does Boeing want to involve itself in?
5. If I'm a done CEO before 2030, what will I have accomplished for the next team up?

The list of urgency is far longer than what this new CEO has previewed in private, as Dennis Muilenberg.  The former CEO, McNerney, did his best, and now will have a distinguished role as a Boeing mentor to the new CEO for a couple of years. Boeing blossomed during this last decade, as a once again World's Largest event. Dennis must now take the company further with its established technology, and not rest on the millennial's coattails, or they will once again see the late 1990's again as Airbus attempts a surge over Boeing's production acumen. 

Monday, June 22, 2015

Ethiopia beating the economic odds

Posted on Monday, 22 June 2015 16:14

The Ethiopian 787 Journal Flows to its Profits

Ethiopia beating the economic odds <<Link

"The aviation story is different. Ethiopia's geographic location and the success of its national airline give it easy access to many global markets.
Ethiopian Airlines flies passengers to 83 international destinations, 49 of them in Africa, and hauls cargo to 24 cities around the globe. It is Africa's fastest growing and most profitable passenger and cargo carrier.
Three years ago, the state-owned but privately-managed airline became the second carrier outside Japan to operate the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, a state-of-the-art passenger jet."

Winging It Predicted this as a feature company back in 2011 and then in 2013.

Winging IT August 2013

"After reading this old Winging It link on LiftnDrag blog, the article goes on to state watch Ethiopian Airlines, because they are best positioned to take advantage  of the 787 on its long legged routes. Little did I know, they would have one 787 catch on fire at London Heathrow, and benched it indefinitely until a resolution is found, or did I know they they would increase its profitability by 178%, and recognize the 787 directly affecting the bottom line by so much! Even with its older aircraft inventory in play everyday. If it sounds like crowing, then so be it, its crowing a little. I can't help but get a little excited on a long shot Airlines on a winning horse, The 787."

Winging It December 11, 2011

"Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Areoflot's 22 DreamLiner Order Going to The Boeing Laundry

Not so fast my friend. The 22 Aeroflot cancelled Dreamliners from Paris are now being discussed with a Boeing plan in mind. Aeroflot said, "Nyet' at Paris. Boeing said, "wait just a darn moment my friends". "Putin Doesn't have the coin of the realm like we do."

Boeing is prepared to help Aeroflot - Russian Airlines resolve the issue of a contract to supply 22 Boeing 787 Dreamliner airliners, Sergei Kravchenko, Boeing's Russia and CIS President, told reporters at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Boeing does not want to give Airbus orderbook bragging point and will try a very lucrative financial packaging for AeroFlot. 

Selling Points Played For AeroFlot

  • Buy 22 787 get one free coupon.
  • Frozen Exchange rate for the Ruble at any delivery date/time before 2024
  • In House Boeing Finance from Boeing General Acceptance Corporation BGAC
  • First Time Buyer Cash Back 787 Program Incentive
  • Free access to Boeing's Flying Maintenance Circus BFMC. Aeroflot Fly's it away we come and fix it any time, anywhere and in anyway special.
  • First Tank of Fuel free to fly it home. 

Friday, June 19, 2015

Winging IT With "Jethro's Bodine", Paris Orders On The Table, Ciphered

Accounting Note:
Boeing has book numbers on its Boeing.com. Confusing as they present it, since my numbers don't reconcile, I have presented one last time a snap shop from press reports. My bad! However, I wanted to bring clarity to the issue of money in play from purchases to options tabled. The categories are self explanatory. The money are optimum book numbers and don't represent signed on values only an advertised list price. Even though I keep posting Paris numbers, the silly changes are interpretations coming from many sources, so it becomes who said what issues. Even though I made a good faith effort to round up a correct summary, it becomes a close accounting call, depending on what method. Boeing may have couched the show numbers. Here are my numbers which will be fleshed out by the end of the year. On to Dubai with more wide bodies in play. Boeing's body-of-work for 2015 is the final indicator for whose boss in 2015. Winging says Boeing Production wins and Orders remain a ? mark but will be close. Only the final dollar count will be the actual tie breaker in 2015.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

It's Innovation Stupid

Boeing slipped up and showed Airbus its strategy at the Paris Airshow. Boeing innovation at full bloom. Hewlett-Packard once had the "Innovate" Vision. It worked and worked then came Carli Fiorina and change the logo from "Invent". Its an urban legend, and it reads well, so I added it to this blog story. However, Airbus was just as impressed with the Vietnam Airline 787-9 Show as were the Parisians attending. Boeing out innovated Airbus at this show. Boeing will continue out innovate Airbus for some time to come. Airplane Customers are starting to get It! The Moses Lake "air adventure", you know before the Paris Airshow video, was filmed at three different angles using a You Tube innovation.

You Tube Choose Your View

Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Shows Off ahead of Paris Air Show 2015

Innovation strikes at the heart of the Boeing 787 program and its beginning to show. Even at the Paris Airshow it showed by out innovating Airbus. The Vietnam Airlines 787-9 went up, down, and around in spectacular fashion. During the Moses Lake practice Boeing partnered with You Tube with three camera angles of the famous 787-9 practice run (see link above). Innovation is seeping into the travelers awareness from Boeing's 787 with 11 million Youtube and news views in one week with just a practice run of "Boeing's Innovation 787 Moment".

Boeing Innovation is the subliminal nuance in every 787 flight. It winning over passengers and airline customers without cognizant recognition with a steady stream of smiling and pleased passengers, who don't even know why they are smiling when they arrive at their destination. Remember they breathed fresh air without the taint of Jet A fumes. Other new airplanes, like the A-350 can't claim that nuance or innovation.  Airbus hasn't mastered what Boeing has mastered.

Another subliminal innovation with the 787 is found in its wings, computers and actuators. The ride over the Rocky Mountains is smooth with nary a bump in your napping. The systems detect rough air and automatically adjusts wing trim making smoother flight while colliding with nasty wind chops at 550 MPH. The passengers didn't notice the subliminal innovation only to note it seems the 787 airplanes always fly routes with the best weather, and other airlines seem to always fly in rougher air.

Boeing innovated with slick air. What the heck is "slick air"? It comes from a laminar flow technology of which you will not notice boarding a 787-9. Leading edges on some flight surfaces took its golf game to new heights. The dimples found on golf balls made their way on Boeing wings in a patented formation. The Airbus A-350 hasn't got there yet, but now they need to do it the old fashioned way through copy right infringement methodology. Laminar flow makes wind sliding by the lifting surface, non abrasive, and reduces significant drag and fuel burn. That's why a passenger will fly from Australia with 300 friends to Dallas, TX, or somewhere in South America just because they can with Boeing's innovation, which they are not probably aware of yet.

Noise is not the issue with Boeing, since its innovation is built into the 787 frame. The A-380 is noted for its quiet manners because passenger are mostly removed from the source of engine noise and moving parts. Its just that big you don't hear what's going on downstairs or two blocks behind the noise. Airbus did a great job of isolating its passenger from sources of noise. Having said that politely, I move to the 787 where they do not have the luxury of separating passengers by distance from the noise, so they had to stop making noise in the first place. First came the engines noise that had to be knocked down by many decibels by multiple innovations. The engine inlet cowling was redesign and chevrons at the back of engine cowling was an added as sound deadening innovation. GE and Rolls developed Plastics in the fan blades, dampening engine decibels. The multiple innovations from frame builder and engine builder gave passengers quiet conversations again without every passenger hearing any loud conversations. It became another subliminal feature born out Boeing and its partners of innovations.

Fresh Air, smooth ride, and quiet comfort are all brought about uniquely, from Boeing's innovation closet. Going farther on tank of fuel and then maintaining the aircraft from its airborne systems and reporting, keeps your time at the airport at a 99% better level of performance worldwide. When you view the 787-9 Paris Airshow practice video, Its all about the innovation Airbus couldn't touch at the show. People are starting to get it. Boeing is about making it best. Passengers just want to get to their destination smiling without realizing why.

Unofficial Paris Recap Of Boeing Dollars

A quick and dirty number crunch for your reading consumption. Many publications have come out with a variety of numbers. However, my numbers are more carefully, tallied, considered and propagated to the most accurate conclusion anyone west of the bagel stand can cipher. Jethro Bodine (Jed, Beverley Hillbillies fame's nephew). Here are Jethro's numbers cipher through digital manipulation based on his ten digit ciphering.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

MOM is coming, Winging It Weighs in Again

The Boeing 757 is a done deal in the production realm. No longer built but much loved. It is rapidly being replaced by the A-321 knock-offs for its own size and range similar to the 757, but does not have near the appeal the 757 had, even as Airbus brings its new A-321 forward. The design staff at Winging It was challenged with a "Boeing What Would We Do Project". Called "Middle of the Market" or affectionately referred, as just MOM.

Here goes once more Winging It's stab in the dark, since Boeing didn't react with the last 757 "W.I." replacement brainstorm. Build a mini dual aisle two class . Each Aisle similar single aisle width, expand the hull by an additional 48 inches across. Using similar 737-9 Max body length, and  rows spacing. Explore two different seat layouts. One with 2-3-2 throughout while planting 231 seats, and the other with 2-2-2 Premium Class with 4 rows of 24 pleasurable seats, and then going into economy at 2-3-2 for 28 rows, planting 196 seats, totaling the MOM at 222 seats.

This concept lives up to its acronym with middle of market dynamics. Mid-body width between single and duo wide-body aisle widths. Ample room for going + 5,000 miles or ten hours duration. Premium seats have a 36 inch pitch and 22 inch width. Economy 31 inch pitch 18 inch seat width. Mid Market engine power either with CFM or GE exclusive engines. 787 avionics and plastic wings made in Everett. The 1,000 airplane predicted stream will make this tween-er exciting and preferable over some single aisles routes, no matter the manufacturer. Its Boeing's opportunity for transitioning from single aisle to dual aisle segment. The MOM will please the family as well as business. Trans Continental and some Trans Oceanic may appeal to the Likes of Ryan Air. Its not a niche airplane at-all but a market complement for ordering suites of aircraft from one manufacturer.  

Paris Day III Order Fight Moving to Dubai

You heard it from "Winging It" first, the Order Book Fight between Boeing and Airbus will now move to the desert, where the big boys slug it out in the sand late in the fall of 2015. The Dubai Airshow is November 8-12, 2015. Also pending, is the 100 Emirates medium sized wide body aircraft. Boeing says they have 787-10 thrust Emirates needs at desert temperatures exceeding 110 degrees F. Maybe so, when you consider wing lift and body weight on the 787 design. The A-350 has plenty of power burning out of its engines stern. Oh, if only a 787-10 was flying today it would be simple to answer Emirates thrust angst.

Six Ethiopian 787's were identified at the show, coming from a former undisclosed customer announcement.

The thrust issue is important to Emirates as it will load its airplanes on hot days with extra people and luggage. The lift and thrust of an aircraft drops off significantly in the heat. The old rocket adage comes into to play, "you can fly a brick with enough thrust". Boeing meets its efficiency claim with less thrust on the 787-10 which is perfect for Northern climates. Emirates claims it’s less than optimal for its heat. They want optimal for their aircraft.

Boeing doesn't want to have to install, an all-new thrust heavy aircraft for one customer. It's a dilemma for both. Emirates doesn't want the A-350-9 as a solution, but will go there if ignored.

The line in the sand has been drawn at the Paris Airshow. No thrust no sale. A solution comes in various packages. One, Boeing needs its test 787-10 flying sooner than its current readiness, demonstrating its claim the 787-10 is extremely adequate for all flight conditions. Secondly Emirates must quell its horse power thirst for a muscle aircraft. They have analyzed the efficiency drop for more thrust is not enough of a penalty for spoiling competitive operation. They would like a low ball bid on high performance (power) engine beyond the necessary realm, you know it as global warming anxiety. This would be on Boeing's Dime to give more horse power to the 787-10. Emirates, of course would want a special price from Boeing.

Boeing ponders how they can win the sale without moving the line in the sand. 70,000 lbs. thrust makes the grade with some to spare no matter the earthly conditions. You don't need 80,000 lbs. thrust with the 787's wing and weight. Didn't you see it (787-9) take off at Paris? "Well the 10 will be more thrilling because it’s longer!"

Emirates, wants to tell its friends it has more horsepower because they are rich and horsepower unused is a rich thing when traveling to the airport in front of your friends. It’s the same thing when you drive a V-12 sports car to the car show instead of your VW. Boeing needs to change its image for its 787-10 with a less is more campaign. Much like selling a self-winding watch. It’s just better not to wind when don't have to wind the watch. If this makes any sense at all then you are ready to go to Dubai.

Boeing needs to build image on a less is more theme. Impressions sometimes are greater than thrust itself. Emirates has to be turned away from its raw data coming from the past, to the new data spawned out of the 787 program. Taking-off at 130 degrees F made simple, An Australian 787 Test Primer. It is a good read. How good will the 787-10 be? Working in reverse of the thrust number rates the 787-10 for its efficiency, and performance. When all things are considered, it’s claimed to be so good it only needs 70,000 lbs. thrust per engine. Where the other usual suspects need much more than that, as Emirates has assumed.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Seeking Alphas Part II the 777-8X Beats the A350-1000 Too

Earlier on December 14, 2014 I laid out the Seeking Alpha thesis on the A-350 where it won't cut it against the 777X members either in load with the 777X-9 or in Range in the 777X-8 Here is the Not forgotten but long waiting part two from:

Long only, airlines, industrials, aerospace


  • Stretched version of the Airbus A350-1000 will not be able to efficiently compete with 777X.
  • Airlines favour 777-9X over Airbus A350-1000.
  • Boeing 777-8X is unreachable ultra-long range aircraft.
In my previous articles I compared the Airbus [(OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY)] A350-1000 with the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 777X and concluded that the 777X is the better and more efficient aircraft.
When the Airbus A350-1000 will enter service it will probably be the most efficient aircraft in the skies.
Boeing's reply to the Airbus A350-1000 came in the form of the Boeing 777X, and Airbus does not seem to have an answer to that.
In order to compete with the Boeing 777X, Airbus might decide to bring the Airbus A350-1100, a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000. Airbus stated that its first priority is to optimize the Airbus A350-1000 and after that look at possible stretched version of the Airbus A350.
In this article I will explain why the Airbus A350-1100 will not change anything for the success Airbus A350 family.
First of all it is important to look at how the A350-1000 and Boeing 777-8X are placed in the payload-range diagram:
Figure 1: Payload-range diagram Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777X (Source: Dhierin-Perkash Bechai)
When looking at the payload-range diagram it is important to recognize the differences.
Differences Boeing 777-9X and Airbus A350-1000: The Boeing 777-9X transports up to 50 passengers more and has a range that is about 200 nm greater.
Differences Boeing 777-8X and Airbus A350-1000: The Boeing 777-8X transports up to 3 passengers more and has a range that is about 1300 nm greater.
Looking at the differences it can be concluded that the Airbus A350-1000 is being squeezed by the members of the Boeing 777X.
What a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000 means:
  • Higher capacity
  • Lower range
  • Added structural weight
In order to match the capacity of Boeing 777-9X, Airbus can decide to stretch the airframe. The addition of structural weight (for the added frames and sizing needed for the wings) as well as increase in payload will considerably decrease the range of a possible Airbus A350-1100.
In order to match the range of the Boeing 777-8X, Airbus might decide to seat slightly less passengers in the Airbus A350-1000 and try to increase fuel capacity. Probably a stretch is needed to increase space for fuel tanks which basically means that Airbus cannot compete with the Boeing 777-8X.
So a stretched version only is able to compete with the Boeing 777-9X in terms of capacity, but will lack the range capability of the Boeing 777-9X. The Trent XWB engines are probably maxed out, and there is very little to squeeze out of it to increase range.
So even if Airbus comes up with the Airbus A350-1100 it will not be able to compete with the upcoming Boeing 777X, a stretch of an already stretched aircraft simply will not be as efficient.
What could be a possibility is stretching the airframe to increase capacity and place a significantly more efficient engine on the Airbus A350 to increase the range.
Order numbers also show that the Boeing 777X is favored over the Airbus A350-1000:
Table 1: Order numbers medium wide body members
As can be seen few airlines are buying the Boeing 777-8X that will be the ultra-long range leader, but airlines are favoring the Boeing 777-9X that has higher capacity over the Airbus A350-1000.
It can be concluded that with the Airbus A350 Airbus did not plan ahead but merely came up with a product to compete with the current 777 product line that is already a decade old.
One can also question the strength of the A350 as an aircraft family:
  • The Airbus A350-800 probably will be canned (existing orders will be converted to orders for the A350-900 or the A330neo).
  • The Airbus A350-1000 has not received any orders in a year now
  • Since the launch of the Boeing 777X, Airbus only received 3 orders for the Airbus A350-1000
  • Only the Airbus A350-900 has decent order numbers and inflow


Airbus certainly failed in predicting or anticipating future competitors on the market. They came up with the Airbus A350, which is a perfect competitor for the current 777 but cannot compete with the Boeing 777X. The Airbus A350 is too small to compete with the upcoming Boeing counterparts. This might mean that Boeing will be leading the lucrative medium-wide-body sector.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Paris Tuesday 6-16- 2016 (II)

Day Two brings on the good, the bad, and the ugly. The "Single Aisle Jamboree" was kicked off in fine fashion as the rumored 100 Max order dropped from the fickle order tree into Boeing's basket.

The Bad was sluggish sales pace of both airplane makers as they had been grooming this event into what now appears to be a world glut of backlog, which has drained the financial swamp losing any incentives of having super large orders. However, Bad Boy Boeing capped the event with one hundred 737 Max, I assume in the -7,-8,and -9 classes. (See Below Chart). I am guessing day one is for premium customers, day two is for Single Aisle and Day three is for wide-body show surprises.

Ugly: Aeroflot cancels 22 787, per Putin insatiable appetite for "leg of lame" shoved off the plate. Reason given. "The 787 no longer fits our growth plans". Russian translation, "Low oil prices in Russia are really hurting" having any airplane purchases, Plus Putin is angry!

Note options usually follows-on with the main purchase documents, on the same day ordered at shows. However, options can appear later on in negotiations after an initial purchase is made.

Data from Various news reports and All Things 787 summary.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Paris-Monday-Day One (I)

What more is there to say. The 787-9 did its thing and peopled said "awe/ahhh" in unison.

Straight from someones accounting, I stole this information:
Ka-Ching goes the cash register!!! Fries included.

79 signed-on so far
Rumors... Boeing has a fish-on, for 100 Max. Its maybe, the talk of the show, in a nut shell for 10.7 billion.

However, Its only Monday, a day for self-importance and new fashions at the show.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

The Paris Shuffle Is About To Start

The big dance may not have an order book gloat this year, but it will have intrigue that will shape the fortunes of many over the next few years. Boeing is arranging for more strategic wide body sales for its 787-10. Airbus is working its charm with its own A-350 couple, which is not yet a real family, as it tries for more A-350-1000's. The battle of the 10's is in the back room at Paris. By fall announcements will come for the the winner of this battle at Dubai. Paris is just a love affair gone torrid in 2015. No announced billions and billions for the consuming public, but a few raised eye brows will be forth coming as the whispers flood the flight-line.  Who did what to whom?

The Paris affair is captivating without a full story disclosed. Even the A-400 scandal dares shows up. All are hoping it won't crash on someones pavilion or static display. The usual suspects are already there. China's 777-300-ER, Vietnam's Air 787-9, and the Qatar Five Quintet will sing over Paris in A-350 5/5 time. The show will be great, but the back room will have greater consequence remaining unannounced, and in scandalous fashion.

Its a great press moment as they sell more speculative articles than news articles on a given day. News has become speculation. Its the "New Black" in journalism. Yellow is no longer interesting at the Paris dance-off. Airbus strategy is to look busy flying and flying over Paris, back and forth with the quintet. Boeing seeks to stun and make conversation with these few words, "Did You See That?!"

The 787-9 stood on its tail once more, and everyone standing got sick and yelled out just the same. "Oh! Awe!,The 787 rocks! It doesn't need no stinking five to fly-by. It just rocks!"

Hype, mystery, and scandal makes the show in 2015. Significant orders will come before the end of the year and after the show. Thrust is made for Emirates, and price is leveraged at the show for those desperate for stealing a headline. The duopoly paid to much good money to go home without bragging about whose best. After-all, isn't that what Paris is for, bragging about yourself no matter what common sense tells the audience. A little bit huckster and a little bit showman, is Paris Air Show. The loose change of orders will have to do.

Back to the backroom. I'll raise you 100 wide-bodies playing the queen of hearts "thrusting" on the Airbus duopoly of clubs, by Boeing. I'll see you and raise it to the"Max" bet. "Oh for Dubai it can't come fast enough for the big orders when "they" go all-in."

Friday, June 12, 2015

After All Its An Air Show and Boeing Aims to Show

The stunning practice video of Vietnam's Airlines 787-9 has swept up the internet before the "Show" in Paris even started. The attempted showmanship of Qatar's five A-350 fly-over is already upstaged with the Vietnam Airline 787-9 Moses Lake practice run. Doing a wide-body tail stand off the runway, before even reaching the halfway point down its total runway length is even used. See at what Point the 787 stands up, and notice how much runway remains as it goes vertical in the video. The remarkable talking points have over-whelmed the aviation world with this Youtube segment made available by Boeing (See below-last frame). Qatar's fly-by five will only seem less interesting in Paris as the crowd now expects the Vietnam Airlines to stand on its tail once more before the whole of the Paris Show.

Image result for 787-9 vertical take-off

Frank Sinatra Is On Board As Chairman Singing Fly-Me -To-The-Moon.

Famous 787-9 Video with Vietnam Airlines Future Equipment
Notice where runway ends and 787-9 Takes-off near halfway point and climbs

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

"Airways" is A recommended Read Today on The Maturity of The 787

It is not often you learn so much about an airplane but today we have airways summary on the 787 performance of the 787 from its start until now. Take your time link up and read during a break. Know that the 787 is here to stay, in fine form.

"The Dreamliner is reaching its maturity Since its EIS, the 787 has logged more than 257,000 flights and 568 million revenue miles, transported 48 million passengers and operated more than 500 flights a day for 31 airline customers thus far. On average, Dreamliners fly 12 hours a day and it is estimated that 2.1 billion pounds of fuel have been saved so far, together with a dispatch reliability finally reaching more than 99 percent after well-publicized teething pains.
Since its EIS, the 787 has logged more than 257,000 flights and 568 million revenue miles, transported 48 million passengers and operated more than 500 flights a day for 31 airline customers thus far. On average, Dreamliners fly 12 hours a day and it is estimated that 2.1 billion pounds of fuel have been saved so far, together with a dispatch reliability finally reaching more than 99 percent after well-publicized teething pains."

Winging It:

The Boeing performance plateau has more to go before reaching its peak. The initial innovation pit Boeing has conceived from the 787 beginnings is like yeast on the bread dough. Many new ideas are building the next 777X  and the Max from its initial incubation period during the 787 program. The "should we do this mentality" is replaced with confidence of "We need to do this". Laminar flow technology as mentioned earlier in Winging It, is a need to do this statement flying over Airbus. The 68" CFM Max engine compared with the Airbus 78" CFM will out perform its engine mate when slung under the low riding taxi of the  Max 737. Weight is the true final frontier in aviation development. Every pound added is a penalty for air travel. From luggage bins to bathrooms pounds come off and passenger are added. 

Its time to explore luggage-less options in aviation and passenger weight per ticket purchase. For one a passenger may have the opportunity to before pack with a destination. The thought is to go on the jet as is, and order online rented clothing before departure having it delivered at your hotel before you even land. The hassle of packing, toting and paying luggage handling is gone. Go online and rent suits, dresses, and under clothes online before you leave. They will be in your motel room before you arrive at the motel. No tips needed at the airports. You choose from the electronic catalog    

787-10's is Whats For Ordering

Emirates wants 100 or more stout wide bodies. It already has a hankering for Boeing Product. It also cancelled Airbus leaving 70 A-350 exactly in its dream with a monstrous  787 chasing it aspirations away. Emirates is pondering both airline makers for the next giant order. So much is on the line for both manufacturers. One loves the smack talk with an order of this magnitude. Airbus would catch Boeing if it took in an order for 100 for the A-350-900. It would crow all the way to Farnsborough Air Show and back. Boeing would close its case on new wide-body once and for all, keeping its European rival deeply sadden over the order loss.

The question is asked who will get the nod. Emirates wants more thrust out of the Boeing 787-10. How much more, it is not said? It would require a new engine configuration from either GE or Rolls to meet its requirements, and coast billions and some time for Boeing to do so. It can be done but would delay the program in time of maybe another year or two. Emirates could wait for either builder a little while, as that wait would open up the order book causing a continuous flow for Emirates delivery schedule. It doesn't have to wait for Airbus for the thrust improvement because its already there at Emirates level of thrust requirement. Hot weather robs thrust performance in the desert regions and Emirates needs the thrust on its larger airplanes obviously. Boeing knows this as well, but has committed to optimizing thrust range for its 787-10 less than what Emirates prefers.

The A-350-9 maybe too much of an aircraft for Emirates as the Airbus A-350 prefers spanning the globe while optimizing its design and efficiency. The 787-10 was designed for the middle length routes as it covers 90% of the worlds long routes. It sounds intriguing for Emirates, but it comes back to Boeing's thrust for its heavy aircraft in the desert.

Boeing, for a hundred wide-bodies will do most anything for the sale. Even order up a new engine configured for greater thrust requirements. It's just plain hot in the middle east, and thrust is on order. However, Emirates is also going North with new routes across Europe, and other regions which is not temperamental as the desert sun. The nominal 787-10 could serve those regions without thrust enhancements while avoiding high density desert airports.

I would expect Boeing will address engine builders over the thrust issue in earnest and quickly. I also expect the three year lead time will give Boeing some solutions by 2018, when the first 787-10's start delivery with its other customers.

In all, Boeing has the capability of selling 100 787-10's with an engine redesign developing more thrust in a "Just for Emirates" power plant, and for any other customer needing the thrust required engine flying along the equator using a 787-10. Some programs only start with 100 orders to begin with and a 787-10 desert burner would be a worthy project, and completed in under three years. GE has the means as well as Rolls, who want a piece of this action. Adding more thrust is not a Boeing lost leader in the over-all scheme of things. Not doing anything for a tempting order would be a big Boeing loss.

Monday, June 8, 2015

"Before Paris" An Epic Movie Of The Real Show.

Posturing, posing and primping in front of the mirror is the Paris Air Show, even before it even happens.

Air Manufacturing sometime poses its order book and postures any calamity before the big event.
Articles about the A-380 order book slump shows up, and orders are missing from Boeing's website from a China order on single aisle 737's. Boeing claims its up to the customer to announce its order. Airbus claims its customers who are in love with the show, and save the pomp and ceremony demonstration for the show.

The reader of such events get lost in the hyperbole and couched information streams, which is spewing forth, as if from some kind of aviation lava fountain in a cheap motel. The plot thickens as the show draws near. Can Boeing top the airshow again with the Vietnam Airlines 787-9 aerial display?

The Last Big Show in 2014 (Farnborough) the test 787-9 stood on its tail during take-off. It flew around waging its wings at the crowd as if it where a fighter jet from the US AF Blue Angels. This movie plot comes from the pre-show time frame, reminds me of the Movie "State Fair 1946-62" or "Giant, 1956". What kind of drama explodes before the Paris Air show. It must compete and surpass having a tense Texas ranch reunion movie with lots of oil spewing out of control.

The five Qatar A-350's flying in formation supersedes the 200 Japanese style lanterns hung on fifty bicycle handle bars at Pollyanna's Community Bazaar as shown in the Disney Movie.

Hollywood Cheese is Bigger Than Paris Cheese Watch Giant in the trailer with Rock Hudson and Elizabeth Taylor

Giant Cheese Trailer

State Fair Has Animals and a Airplane Ride

Ether way I can't wait for the actual Paris Airshow posturing posing and primping before the cameras.

What will they say? What will they announce after shaping the order book for announcements? It's an effort to appear better off than the last Paris extravaganza two years ago and far better form than its main competitor in aviation salesmanship . Is it more carnival than circus? The pre-show story suggest yes it is that very thing, a Giant French made carnival. Enjoy Paris everyone for the hype alone. After all its Paris and not Texas.

Giant Food Is On Display With This Clip: No A-380 in Background sorry :(

Bidness ETC Quote

"Boeing is confident that it will book several hundred orders in the upcoming Paris Air Show, scheduled between June 15-21. Earlier this week, it was reported that the company will showcase some its main commercial aircraft including 787-9 Dreamliner, which will then be delivered to Alaska Air Group, Inc.(NYSE:ALK)."