Monday, November 24, 2014

The Road To The 777X Is Paved With Creative Options

The 777X will be coming none to soon after its announcement of its inception in November of 2013. The problem Boeing has is the eager anticipation for the 777X, and what to do with selling a seemly dull prospect of a brand new 777-300-ER, an airline might add to its airline inventory in the interim of time. "Time", once again is biting Boeing in the  foot. Make an announcement on exciting all new airplane, and your customers await impatiently. The old stuff ordered two years ago now seems older before it arrives. The important item Boeing is trying to address is how do you satisfy a customers impatience of needing new stuff for its own customers. Delta Airline when it double reversed Boeing through  ordering the A330 NEO and A350's before Boeing's 777X arrives in 2020. Airbus will start delivering now with the A350, and later with the A330 NEO to its customers while the 777X project is still on the computer graphics card.

Boeing needs to recognize its predicament with both the 777X and 787-10 projects. The 777-300-ER is a great machine but its not new. A Customer's sensibility, which needs to be address by Boeing in more transitional tones. The sales and PR team need to huddle on this one. Neither is the 777X coming soon, nor is the 787-10 coming soon. Even if a customer orders a 787-10 now as a bridge to the 777X, before it can even get a 777X, the customer is stuck waiting just the same. However, Airbus is quick to point out they are starting to deliver A-350's in December.

"We" will start to deliver A 330 Neo's in three years, what do you think about that?"

The customer retorts, "where would I be on the order list?"

Airbus can say, "way further up front in line than you would be, if you ordered the 787-10. The 777-yawner-300-ER is available , but why would anyone even consider that, when "we" have all new technology way ahead of the 777-300-ER?"

People want the new shiny stuff over getting last decades stuff.

Boeing must tackle these perceptions in the market place on with the 777-300-ER as its go-to gap filler, since the 787-10 has not been built or tested as a provisional Gap filler for the 777X. The wait on the 787-8 or-9 is longer than the A330-NEO. Instant gratification is a terrible beast Boeing needs slain, by making a better deal or a creative methodology through a purchasing plan. Boeing could bridge the 777-300-ER to the 777X with a Lease-Buy incentive program. Lease a 777-300-ER through to 777X's entry into service (in 2020), and have a buy options exercised on a like numbered 777X or keeping the leased 777-300-ER when the 777X is scheduled for customer building. The lease can also build equity towards a purchase of the 777X, partnering with Boeing, and the lessor company with those leased the 777-300-ERs during 2016 and later.

The mumble jumbo of it all, It that the customer will win in the exchange of equipment, The leasing company will not have Inventory risk, as it is backed by Boeing with a set buy-back price for each unit leased by the leasing company. Boeing will then have to sell the future returned leased equipment to a secondary market, which it should cultivate during the interim lease period.

That is big picture gibberish, which in all effect there is a heavy discount for the customers leasing a 777-300-ER and an incentive for buying the 777X through options. The Lessor also does well as Boeing sells more of this generation and next generation 777 through the lessor.

Boeing needs to build its own bridge during the 777 process.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Airbus Had a Week

It was all about the window and not the aircraft, so Boeing would reel back and commiserate as Airbus took in 17 billion in orders last week. Especially the Delta Airways order really bites. It's a slap across the chin in French fashion. All because of a window? That is correct, you can have the best offering of aircraft the most advanced, but other important items are in play, and it has nothing to do with what's best or the most efficient equipment. That window is the year 2018. Much like an "end of the year car sales" Timing is everything for a customer.  It is the "window of time" I am talking about, that bites Boeing. Here are a few check list items met by Airbus that Boeing couldn't touch. 

  • Delivery window for Airbus is right where Delta Airlines needs it.
  • Price for those deliveries were revamped with its A330 NEO and a sweet deal on the A350.
  • Fleet renewal capitalization window for Delta had its cash ducks in a row in a narrow time.
  • Fleet expansion/operations inconvenience, and training window mitigation had to be exact.
  • 787-9 orders could be bumped further back into limbo.
  • Decision includes a certainty for meeting corporate goals and objectives within this window. 
In spite of all the wonderful things Boeing could offer, the Airbus deal was destine to fit Deltas corporate sensibilities? Boeing's Achilles heel was exposed as mentioned in an earlier blog. Boeing has done a masterful Job of loading the 787 order book up leaving it stuck in the cement of backlog. The only way out is to build more 787's faster. Airbus looks at this predicament and chuckles. Boeing has outdone themselves in catching up. Now Airbus can cherry pick on Boeing's heel. Delta Airlines is a case in point. Pin prick and cut Boeing with a thousand slices until it bleeds out.

However, Boeing knows this, as lessons again were learned during this week on the Delta Airlines deal. Boeing was squeezed out of Delta's delivery window and Airbus stepped in.  The answer is found on the production floor. They will need 12, 787 a Month sooner rather than later. They will have to stop Airbus from cherry picking around the “Time Window". The "Air War" is reaching a fever pitch in the market place. Boeing needs a bigger window (of time) throughout its line of aircraft. They need to synchronize with its customers and regain some order book flexibility relevant with any Airbus' timeliness.

The competition is after Boeing's backlog situation, not the aircraft performance metrics. Even those metrics are very important to operations and advertisement departments, but the other side of the buy quotient is the time window. Which can negate those advantageous operational metrics when competing advantages are slim. Boeing has lost the Time window in this case and it needs to gain it back. It is a difficult task measuring a backlog build-up. When you have over 837 units yet to be built. It's a balancing act with corporate goals, aircraft model perceptions, and competitive advantages at stake.

  • Boeing needs a big backlog for Stock Holders
  • Boeing need a smaller backlog for customers who are ready to order
  • Boeing needs a bigger backlog for bragging rights, and advertising
  • Boeing needs a smaller backlog, accommodating more market flexibility
  • Boeing needs a bigger backlog optimizing plant production and lowering production cost
  • Boeing needs a smaller backlog as it has saturated its capabilities with orders.
Without intensive study on this matter you see Airbus in the smaller backlog position and Boeing in the higher backlog position. Somewhere in this observation Boeing is tasked with controlling the backlog. It can only be done on the factory floor. Boeing must aggressively market its family of aircraft. It must not turn an order off from a Boeing offer. It must have its foot on the throttle and take on all orders in a timely fashion. The problem lies in its production capacity, and how it can lay-up on its production or increase it for more deliveries. It has to have the same commitment and flexibility with its suppliers. This build up model becomes complex and Airbus has thought long and hard on how it can expose Boeing. It has done so with the Delta order. Delta assented with its 14 billion dollar order.

Boeing must build its production lines handling a five year backlog at maximum, and a three year minimum. That backlog can be feathered by using lower or increasing monthly production numbers achieving a five year optimal plan. Boeing has done this to some extent with its extra 787 line in Everett, WA. and its plant expansion in Charlotte, SC. However, if they take on a slug of more 787, 737 and 777 orders in the next two years, they will have to re-work production capacity to remain competitive from the window of time perspective. If the factory pace goes beyond five years from an increase of sales, and enters into seven year back log category, they will need to increase production taking the backlog back to five years levels or lower.  Otherwise they will be exposed by Airbus again. 

Boeing can win the Air Wars if they have an effective change management plan where flexibility is the core function. Having the square footage, equipment, and supplies at the ready for any implementation of plant and facility change needed, at the drop of a memo.

It should read,

  • We need 52 a month 737's for the next six months and further, 
  • We need 12 a month 787's this year
  • we need 10 777's fiscal 2020 all generations
"do It!"

cc "Everybody"

I believe that memo was sent several years back at Boeing. The Delta Airline deal with Airbus is a “too little too late” for Boeing.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Chances Are... Airbus Makes A Date With Delta

Chances are Boeing knew it was on the outs 4 months ago with Delta Airlines. Airbus was in. Airbus received the good news yesterday, Delta had chosen Airbus for 50 A330's and A350's over Boeing's offering of 787-9's and 777X's. What happened to Boeing is that, they weren’t invited to the Delta Airline prom? If looking at side by side comparisons, then Boeing should go to the prom. However, Airbus exploited Boeing's order book weakness. Wait Time! It wasn't about who has the best, but it’s more about Delta's fleet expansion plans. It couldn't wait. Airbus said it could pull up to Delta's curb sooner than Boeing, by a long shot. They have a shorter order book line in the wide body division.

Boeing's success has them backed into a corner when it comes to timeliness. Airbus swooned right in with a sooner rather than later bid. Any solace found in that sentiment? No! Airbus now has the reorder high ground over Boeing when Delta needs more units later on. A Boeing disaster? Yes, to say the least. They just stepped in its own success having a larger order book and a developing 777X production line.

Delta must also have discussed new Airplane model risks, in light of the problematic 787 entry into service debacle. Airbus of course would pounce on that saying they have mitigated every possible new airplane mishap potential before first delivery. The only Airbus question mark is the daily wear and tear from operations any existing airplane goes through each day. “They will have no Airbus battery fires delays here”, says the Airbus team. They made its case months ago, and Delta was waiting until purchasing ducks were in a row. 

Boeing also knew months ago, it was late for Delta date and would not participate. However, Delta is not the only airline around even though she's very popular. Airbus gains some bragging rights. It gains a lucrative market place. It also makes it relevant in airplane wars once again. Boeing lost this one big time, a long time ago. Out flanked and surprised by a lessor foe. In war these things happen, when the big picture gets too big. Remember the Battle of The Bulge in World War II. An almost, but for want of fuel. The allies regrouped and came back.

Boeing has to keep on keeping-on, and balance the order book to keep in a relevant range of order response. The 840 plus 787’s in waiting is too big. They must keep it 48 months out not 84 months out. It’s more about the wait time then who has the best by judging size of order book. The airline parity is close enough, that timing may trump the differences. Even if Boeing is better on several important points, as found in fuel burn and amenities. An Airline expansion/renewal timing is more critical. Late order book departures kill an airline as fast as consistent late airport departures. Delta needed an on time fleet renewal. Boeing got burnt and will continue to get burnt with the current comparative back log with Airbus and Boeing. 

The current Delta order loss, as damaging as it is to Boeing, solves one problem. It brings comparative order books closer to equivalency. Boeing, in six more months of production of its 787 will have drained the order book sponge by fifty more units, putting the backlog between the duopoly in a pitch battle for orders when it comes to delivery timing. If Boeing could have delivered sooner rather than later with quality assurances, they would have, and should have won this bid. It’s a should of, would of, could of bid loss.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Boeing's 787 Scrap Book Of Faults

The article in its entirety from "Travel" London Telegraph feature
This a copy of the complete for convience. Any feature comments from will be denoted by a different color of font from Winging Comments.
April 26, 2004 – All Nippon Airways (ANA) becomes the launch customer for the Dreamliner, with the first of 50 planes to be delivered in 2008. By the end of 2004, total orders had reached 237. First flight scheduled for autumn 2007.
July 8, 2007 – first 787 unveiled at Boeing’s Everett assembly factory, with 677 orders already received. Initial plan is for aircraft to enter commercial service in May 2008.
Pre-launch problems
September 5, 2007 – three-month delay to first flight announced, due to shortage of fasteners and incomplete software.
1. Problem Resolved in time
October 10, 2007 – second three-month delay to first flight, and six-month delay to first deliveries, due to problems with foreign and domestic supply chain, ongoing fastener shortage and software issues.
2. Problem Resolved in time
January 16, 2008 – third three-month delay to first flight.
3. Problem Rescheduled for later
April 9, 2008 – fourth delay announced. Maiden flight rescheduled for fourth quarter of 2008, initial deliveries put back 15 months to third quarter of 2009.
4. Problem Rescheduled for later
November 4, 2008 – fifth delay, due to incorrect fastener installation and strike by Boeing staff. First flight rescheduled for second quarter of 2009. Several airlines state intention to seek compensation for delays.
5. Problem Rescheduled for later.
June 15, 2009 – at the Paris Air Show, Boeing claims the 787’s maiden flight will take place within two weeks. Eight days later it is postponed “due to a need to reinforce an area within the side-of-body section of the aircraft”. First flight rescheduled for end of 2009.
6. Problem Resolved and 787 First Flight Bumped Again to later date.
December 12, 2009 – Dreamliner completes high-speed taxi tests and three days later makes its maiden flight (more than two years behind schedule). Originally to last four hours, it landed an hour early due to bad weather. Nine-month test programme announced.
Problem resolved since first flight was scheduled for September 7, 2007 and 787 is Late by two years 3 months for its initial flight.
June 2010 – problems found on horizontal stabilisers of test aircraft. All planes inspected and repaired.
August 2, 2010 – Trent 1000 engine suffers blowout at Rolls-Royce facility during ground testing. Failure causes further delays – first delivery to ANA put back to early 2011.
Resolved Rolls Testing Engine Failure
November 9, 2010 – 787 makes emergency landing after electrical fire during test flight above Texas. Flight testing suspended the following day. Tests resume on December 23.
Electrical Panel Fire Caused From Manufacturing Debris Inside Encasement
January 2011 – first delivery rescheduled for third quarter of 2011, due to software and electrical updates following in-flight fire.
August 26, 2011 – US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Air Safety Agency certify the 787, clearing the way for deliveries.
September 25, 2011 – first Dreamliner delivered to ANA, more than three years behind schedule.
Since September 7, 2007 where Boeing announced a delivery would be made by fall of 2007, and the above testing conditions, were resolved, which delayed entry into Service by three plus years.
October 26, 2011 - first commercial flight, from Narita to Hong Kong. Tickets sold in an online auction, with the highest bidder paying $34,000 for a seat.
Post-launch problems

After delivery starts, Boeing agressively chases faults with its customers as they occur, including the infamous battery fires and 787 shut down for three months. Boeing also asserts production pace through the battery shutdown era. They resumed delivery with using aircraft production made during the grounding, installing new battery containment systems.
February 6, 2012 - Boeing says it has discovered a manufacturing error that requires repairs in the fuselage section of some Dreamliners.
July 23, 2012 – ANA says it is having five Dreamliners repaired for a defect in their Rolls-Royce engines.
July 28, 2012 - A 787 suffers engine failure during testing in South Carolina. US authorities announce investigation.
September 5, 2012 - ANA aborts the take-off of a Dreamliner after what appears to be white smoke is seen billowing from the plane's left engine, believed to be due to a glitch with the hydraulic system.
October 4, 2012 - General Electric recommends new inspections of its GEnx engines, used on some Boeing 747 and 787 aircraft, following the failure of an engine on a 747 operated by Air Bridge Cargo in Shanghai on September 11.
December 5, 2012 - The FAA orders inspections of all Dreamliners in service following reports of fuel leaks.
January 7, 2013 - a fire breaks out on an empty Japan Airlines (JAL) Dreamliner in Boston.
January 8, 2013 – a JAL 787 suffers fuel leak, forcing a flight from Boston to be cancelled. A crack in a cockpit windshield grounds an ANA Dreamliner.
January 9, 2013 – United Airlines reports problem with wiring near the main batteries on one of its six 787s. Safety investigation launched by US National Transportation Safety Board.
January 11, 2013 – second JAL aircraft found to have a fuel leak.
January 13, 2013 – JAL reports fuel leak on another of its Dreamliners. Japan’s transport ministry launches its own investigation.
January 16, 2013 – ANA flight from Ube to Tokyo Haneda diverted after burning smell detected. Inspection revealed a battery fire. Similar incident on a JAL 787s at Boston Logan sees all 50 Boeing 787s in service grounded. Deliveries halted until battery problems resolved.
April 5, 2013 – final tests on new batteries completed. Flights resume on April 26.
June 2, 2013 – JAL finds problem with air pressure sensor that detects overheating in one of its Dreamliners.
June 23, 2013 – United Airlines flight makes emergency landing at Houston due to problems with its brake system.
July 12, 2013 – fire breaks out on an empty Ethiopian Airlines 787 at Heathrow, forcing the airport to temporarily close. Investigation finds fire was caused by lithium-manganese dioxide batteries powering an emergency locator transmitter.
July 18, 2013 – JAL Dreamliner flight from Boston aborted “due to a maintenance message (fuel pump) indicator”.
July 22, 2013 – Qatar Airways confirms grounding on a 787 due to problems with an electrical panel.
July 24, 2013 – oven overheats on Air India flight, prompting investigation.
July 26, 2013 – ANA finds damage to battery wiring on two Dreamliner emergency beacons, the same device suspected of causing fire at Heathrow.
July 27, 2013 - United Airlines also discovers problem with emergency beacon.

Winging IT Blog on 787 Problems

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Through Earth, Wind, And Fire-Ethiopian Airlines Is The Best

Ethiopian Named African Airline of the Year

Happy landings on Terra Firma. Strong tail winds across Africa and the world, and finally a dispatched repair for a massive conflagrated crown of its 787 at London Heathrow. Ethiopian wins the best of the show out of Africa. With a largely Boeing fleet, its taken the sharp Boeing knife and became the Airline of the year for the continent. However, its footprint goes beyond the continent. it meshes with Africa's other flying airlines, and goes worldly with its 787's and 777's. The leadership of Ethiopian has a plan, and early in the life of this blog I mentioned, "watch Ethiopian and what it will do".
Winging It on:

Saturday, August 31, 2013 Link below in heading.

On December 11,2012 Winging It said, Watch Ethiopian Airlines For The Money!!!

Blog Quote: December 11, 2012

" Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

My take from two years ago still says, "Ethiopian is Bank". Not only has it withstood calamity and competition, it remains on its on its expansion plan during a long range period. The heads of Ethiopian saw opportunity and seized it with a firm grip. 

Referenced Blog once again Dec 12, 2012: Ethiopian section enclosed.

Boeing 787 not profitable for another 9 years?

 Ethiopian will make it goals as it has already achieved a significant role for Africa, during the last two years. This award recognises what was predicted earlier. Its the premier airline for Africa.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

The Long Thin Lines Of Aviation's Gold Rush is Turning to Panning

The advent of the 787 was an immediate impact on airline groups bottom line. It was like California in 1849 picking up gold nuggets off the ground, before the swell of miners came to the Gold fields. Then came the placer mines and the gold panning. California played out in a few years. The 787 routes are those long thin routes which are the nuggets laying on the ground. As Airbus brings another shipload of like designed aircraft to the market, Boeing hopes its customers have filled the lucrative long thin routes with the 787.

The panning phase of aviation's gold is about to start with a glut of super efficient market dredges washing the airports clean of its gold. Will the gold run out? Not as long as there are people who kept needing new zip codes to go to on their todo's list. But Boeing got in early, and its customers are are riding the limited point to point and lucrative prime routes. Airbus product will try and muscle in on those routes (claim jumping) at first, and then retreat to the non extended distance routes, as it will have to utilize its Airbus equipment more modestly. The early birds got the worm. ANA, JAL, and others have tied up regions of the globe with the 787 on those special routes. Tokyo to Boston, and the West Coast of the US to China to name a few. There are still a few nuggets out there, but by the time Airbus delivers its first hundred, Boeing will have 400 787's Airborne.

Phase two of Aviation's renaissance is the placer mining era which should start in about three years when Boeing delivers its 500th 787. This will be followed later, by secondary market panning for Gold efforts. That last group will seek handy point to point three hour flights. Already there is a strong presence in that area. In the middle east, Qatar has purposed its 787 flights to the region and Europe as it pans for gold in exclusive routes. London, Frankfort, and Paris to name a few. The 787 Back fill on opportunity is beating the A-350 to the market by almost four years. Time is gold in this case. Staking a claim is 9/10th's of the law. The wide body rush has just started now that Airbus is setting its first delivery soon.

The Max Makes More Sense For Latin Lovers

All the old cliche talks of love is blind and so forth. In Latin America they went in for the A320 and then the next girl walks into to room, the 737 Max. But since commitment prevails over the Latin airlines for the A320. It already bought the ring for the A320.

"But the Max is a better match for what you want", the parents plea with the young Latin lovers.

"But the A320 wears such bright lipstick", replies Avianca.

LAN is eyeing this Boeing beauty out the corner of its eyes as the room starts building more suitors.

A good friend walks up and states, "look at her wing tips, and she can fly farther, and carry more friends to the party'.

So goes the Boeing banter towards the airlines of Latin America, already stuck with the cousin's best friend, the A320 NEO. Knowing the NEO is the girl brought to the dance, it will be hard to ditch her. There is a lot of money riding on the deal. Family ties are strong in Latin America, and the Uncle has reinforced the concept of going with the NEO even when there is a better date in the room.

All the Max has to do is bat its eyes at Avianca and let love take-over. Let's face it that NEO is just so NEO and the MAX has avionics that make the 787 blush. It has many of the features and the styles of all its siblings won in the airplane beauty pageant. Not only that, the MAX won the Miss Practicality award, and then took Congeniality along with best of class. The class thing is what everyone is raving about. The MAX is really classy. "But how does she look?"...  "Just look, you tell me!"

..."Wow, what's her name, MAX? Move..."

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

An Airways News quote tells much about the Airplane Wars

Randy Tinseth, Boeing Market VP, during a recent interview said this much about John Leahy from Airbus’ strategic Marketing fluff.

Randy Tinseth: "They’re (Airbus) better than that – they’re far more aggressive than we are. I have on my laptop a simple comparison of available floor area on all airplanes. I was laughing as I was looking into stuff about the A330-900neo and how it now has 12 or 14 seats more than a 787-9. I kept looking and you know, I think we have a bigger airplane. I think they said they’re going eight abreast and we’re going nine abreast. How they can take a situation, where by any measure we should have 20-25 more seats, and actually show you have an advantage is a testament to their marketing.  Boy, they can take a lemon and make lemonade out of it."

This quip tells everything about the war in the trenches from the top down look at Airplane battles. This example says more than what was intended by Randy during the interview.

Boeing is well aware of Airbus’ hyperbole and manifestations for its mania on the word “Big”. John Leahy reminds me of “Mr. Toads Wild Ride”. He wanted the next big thing, continuously and always. 

I believe Randy has shown a secret where they (Boeing) believes John Leahy is suffering the same mania afflicting Mr. Toad in Disney’s epic carton. Mr. Badger and the River Rat work somewhere on Airbus’ Board of Directors.

Following the plot line of this cartoon, there is intervention from Rat and Badger. Mr. Toad Leahy heard about the next big airplane, and can’t stop talking to anyone. The A330 Neo is bigger than… well a… a 787-9, it holds more passengers than the 787-9. It has more room for each passenger than a 787-9. The A330 Neo flies farther because its eight abreast seating is more efficient than nine abreast? Slow down Mr. “Toad” Leahy, doesn’t the 787-9 have more cubic…? 

Mr. Toad Leahy sprays out of control, “No it can’t, because it just can’t, and I’ll tell you why, it just can’t!"

"Then which one?" Randy  continues his smile. "Which A330 NEO are you talking about? 

Mr. Toad Leahy screams as Rat holds him back, He answers, "the one I want the customer to hear about!"    

Randy thinks a minute and smiles while thinking, "let’s see the 787-9 has nine across and not eight across like a high density A330 Neo with only having a 27 inch seat pitch. The 787-9 has a larger 28” seat pitch in Economy and expands from that base in Premium Economy seating. The pitch is defined as the distance from lumbar support in the seat back up to the facing back of the upright seat in front of the passenger, where a passengers knees may hit the Economy wall."

The A330 Neo cramming can’t even approach a crammed 787-9 in seat count, if that were Boeing's customer intent, but the A330 -900 NEO will match the number of its seat counts against the luxury 787-9 when counting its seats from a crammed A330 NEO cattle hauler. 

It’s all in how marketing wants to shuffle metrics for a sales pitch. Boeing wants to talk about its sweet metrics rather than out of scope comparisons that Airbus offers.

Airbus’ John Leahy will say,

“Our 280 crammed seats is more than the “ever spacious”, 787-9, which ONLY has 248 seats and carries less people."

"Harrumph, Our A330 Neo flying empty flies farther than the fully loaded 248 seat 787-9. Did I tell anyone yet it’s cheaper? Hey, where did everybody go", as his mania sets in?

Randy is getting ready again for China, “We have work to do at Boeing before the next trip!” 

Randy’s phone rings, and a voice says, “Hey pops what did you do with “Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride” DVD, all I see at home is “New Airplane DVD’s”.

An Airways News Redirect

Just finished reading the Airways News article with the Randy Tinseth. It is a must read, if you are even a little curiuos about Boeing and its journey in Aviation. Without too much verbiage fom this Blog, I will simply turn it over to the article with a headline link for your reading access. I will just simply say "well done" Enjoy the article.

Randy Tinseth: "They’re better than that – they’re far more aggressive than we are. I have on my laptop a simple comparison of available floor area on all airplanes. I was laughing as I was looking into stuff about the A330-900neo and how it now has 12 or 14 seats more than a 787-9. I kept looking and you know, I think we have a bigger airplane. I think they said they’re going eight abreast and we’re going nine abreast. How they can take a situation, where by any measure we should have 20-25 more seats, and actually show you have an advantage is a testament to their marketing.  Boy, they can take a lemon and make lemonade out of it."

AirwaysNews High Flyer Interview: Boeing’s Randy Tinseth

Boeing Graphic from Article

Monday, November 10, 2014

Boeing's Vest Pocket Produces 80 More 737 Max Orders

It was mentioned before, that Randy has many orders in his vest pocket hiding from the the press. Today was that day where 80 737 Max where finalized from SMBC. It doesn't even include Ryan Air's Pocket Order for 200 737 Max-200C.

Boeing, SMBC Aviation Capital announce order for 80 737 MAXs

737 Playing card for SMBC

  • 80 Max 8's
  • 50th Max Customer
  • 8.5 Billion  US $dollars Ordered from SMBC 
The total Customer's Max Orders from Boeing is over 2,400 

The Big Deal Quote from SMBC

""It is 10 years since our business placed its first order with Boeing and we have enjoyed a decade of successful partnership since then," said Peter Barrett, CEO, SMBC Aviation Capital. "The 737 MAX 8 is one of the most fuel efficient and versatile aircraft available and today's announcement shows our ongoing commitment to the new generation of the popular 737 family, as well as our appetite to keep broadening and deepening our platform in order to service our customers' requirements. Following this order and given the clear commitment of our shareholders and the strength of the global aircraft leasing sector, we remain very confident in our ability to continue to deliver long-term growth."

Boeing 2014, net order book for the 737 stands at 755. It should go beyond a thousand by year's end. It currently has 1056 airplanes in total on order during 2014. These of course, are for all Boeing types ordered. The final tally will include a end of year push from pocket orders turning into validated Sales transactions. Those final transactions may include over 300 airplane added to the 1056 number bringing the year end number for Boeing, reaching 1,350 added in 2014, pushing the back- log well beyond the 5,000 number that it currently holds. The 80 Max announced today are not yet part of these numbers, nor is Ryan Air's 200 units Pocket order numbers.There are about a half dozen carriers having commitments not yet finaliaze, and Boeing could have that by year's end.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

The 757 Is Boeing's Achilles Heel

Airbus is left with attacking Boeing's family of aircraft at the 757's Achilles heel. A single aisle 200+ seat mile buster greater than 4,000. Boeing is faced with its aging 757 doing the work over the Atlantic or Transcontinental jaunts in the single aisle markets. These early techno aircraft do not have NG or 787 efficiencies, and Airbus is seizing the opportunity with an attempt of expanding the A321 NEO role as a midsized air bridge maker for the midsized markets. That is where the 757 market happily inhabits.

The canceled 787-300 was the proposal for retiring the 757 back nine years ago. Now Airbus has grown up to the 757 niche market of continent hoping to the mid sized markets, and is now proposing a more capable A321, replacing most specifically the aged 757 with the NEO efficiency upsides. Boeing suggested yawning this one out by a muting the PR button. However, it is very concerned if it should let the 757 just die on the vine since analyst think a 200+ seat single aisle with a range of 4500 miles is a waste of resources since the band-aid for those market requirements say 737-900 MAX at the 199 seat bench mark. The question bounces off the PR walls with a follow-up question. Is the 3,500 mile range of the newest 737-900 be enough with only 199 close friends flying, or will jet-seters prefer a more space compliant and 757 beater with a larger single aisle A321 NEO?

That is the billion dollar Boeing Shrug on the Airbus proposal. Here is what I questioned:

  • How many airplane plates spinning in the air can Boeing afford?
  • What platform can Boeing enhance, the 737 or an all new 757?
  • They killed the 787-300, didn't they?
  • How fast could Boeing reasonably answer any of these questions with a real plan?
  • Is it worth it to fill this niche?
  • Plastic or Metal?
  • New engine type for large single aisle?

Many more questions would float out there for six or more months, before Boeing would present a cost effective expansion of its new airplane building, in light of the 737 Max and 777X programs rapidly expanding already. A mid market Trans Atlantic or Continental market build could be considered only after Boeing turns the corner on one of the two above mentioned programs. The market report is important for Boeing at this juncture. What do the stats guys know about this 200-220 seat and single aisle niche for over 4,000 miles. Airbus maybe just smoking it out at Boeing, because they lost too many opportunities during the last decade and needed this jump start over the old 757 with its A-320 family.

Boeing hasn't been blinking at Airbus decision making during the last dozen years. I don't expect Boeing to knee jerk a response at the 757 attack by Airbus with a renewal of single aisle mid market aircraft. In other words Boeing is satisfied with 737-900 MAX against the European airplane maker. Airbus is satisfied with Boeing thinking that letting the 757 languish is fine. After-all, Boeing let the 787-300 go back in 2004. At that time it weighed all the possibilities in the market place and felt strongly the mid- market 787-300 would not be cost effective with its build and the numbers ordered. It must of felt the 757 would have a sufficient 10 year self life. It is now those ten years and Airbus has come to the market with its extended single aisle concept in that passenger/mile category.

The question still remains, what is Boeing thinking about the Airbus announcement as airlines ponder about letting go of its 757 with more efficient A-321 in that class? The answer is complex. Obviously it has broached the 200 seat arena with the 199 seat 737-900 but with limited range. It would not be cost effective to build a 3,500 mile 787-300, that is really a dead project. It is investing billions into both the Max and the 777X at this time. Airbus thinks this is a gotcha on Boeing.

However, Boeing thinks it has change the market dynamics with its family of aircraft. Routes and flight plans continue to evolve and they think they have the answer in copious amounts of Max and 787's. They have covered every contingency in the market. The 787 is flexible as shown in Japan when flying around passengers in Japan. JAL and ANA are satisfied and are making money hauling in quantity and comfort with the 787-8. A single aisle aircraft could probably do the same work as it crams passengers on board, but JAL's Island hoping 787-8 also flies to Frankfort Germany. The A321 would have to stay home. Boeing has analyzed these market holes, and thinks between the Max family and 787 they have it covered. The very flexible 787 doesn't have to have a single aisle configuration to compete with all other configurations. They 757 is going to slowly fade away to the secondary arline companies found in developing continents or fringe markets.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

By The Year 2030 "The Secret Will Be in The Sauce"

 From "Fried Green Tomatoes" infamous film title, and that line quote comes a whole new 737. Where the discussion will be more on the evolution composite plastics than engine performance in the next twenty-five years. Boeing suggests flipping the MAX in the year 2030. What can bloggers do with 2030 as a number quips are harder to come by. I'll just think on that subject until I'll die.

However, Boeing starts its build-it campaign sooner rather than later. Is this just a feign for Airbus, or an impulse message for Boeing investors? 

"Boeing Co.'s 737 MAX is set to enter service in 2017, yet CEO Jim McNerney said Wednesday the company is already talking about replacing it by 2030 to remain competitive. PROVIDED/BOEING 

Perhaps the secret will be in the sauce as plastic manufacturing have only just begun in concocting carbon fiber stranding with a plastic elixir  from its back rooms. We think of only how long plastic carbon fiber has been thrust to the fore front in manufacturing. Its own needle has barely moved forward from the first carbon fiber structures. Remember Kevlar in the military. It was put into a military helmet as protection from a "Silver Bullet". Then came full body armor, race cars and then the 787. The use of autoclave or impregnated carbon is used to form what you need. But what about the plastic itself?

There are four major companies in the world that control the cartel of CRFP trade. Boeing accepted one and Airbus another for its basis of plastic airplane building. Little motivation exists in spending billion on wild plastic notions in the last 25 years. However, there are those pests called Universities, who have nothing more to do with competition in plastics and carbon fiber twill other than spending grant money. Something is brewing in the lab and Boeing is watching and protecting its stake for a new 737-2030. See I did something with Boeing numbers. It will be a plastic sauce revolution from inside the engine, clear to the 737 bathroom. it will be a printer parts manufacturing marvel out of newly discovered formulas painted on to newly discovered carbon fiber patterns and constructs. The dry weight plane might even be lighter than the weight of fuel added and passengers boarded.

Boeing has its sauce in mind for 2030. Schools will keep graduating bio-tech engineers, and all will work out for the tourist and business people alike when "The Secret Is In The Sauce"!

Monday, November 3, 2014

Will 757s Stop Flying Soon? Airbus Launches New A321neoLR

This is an Article Link Blog. Its more about the Boeing solution than the A321_NEO-LR. The venerable 757 just ages like a fine wine.

Will 757s Stop Flying Soon? Airbus Launches New A321neoLR

A fine talking point Article: "I'm out once more today"

Just When 52 A Month is Too Much For Wall Street This

Boeing’s Ruling The Sky With Solid Orders For The 737 Max

Boeing has received an order for thirty more 737, as reported by news sources. Boeing has flipped the Monrch Airlines card out of Randy Tinseth's suit coat sleeve, for thirty MAX's. Boeing has more cards up its sleeve before year end. Maybe two hundred or more as Ryan Air and others confirm its comitted orders. For the rest of the story here is the journalistic perspective.

From Guru Focus: clip: Read Complete Article at the Above Headline link:


"Boeing (BA), the lead aircraft manufacturer, received orders for the 737 Max plane from Monarch Airlines on October 31. The airline operator has ordered 30 of these single aisle jets. The news sent Boeing’s share up 1.2%. More importantly, this deal has made the 737 Max the fastest-selling aircraft of the American plane maker.

Boeing boasts of an order backlog for more than 5,500 jets as of the third quarter ended in September, and more than 4,000 units of the total backlog is for its top-selling model, the 737. As airlines kept demanding a jet that would be more fuel efficient, Boeing decided to make the 737 Max on the proven platform of the popular 737 airplane. The derivative plane, as seen from the heavy order flow, has become a very popular aircraft among operators. "

Airlines and Destinations Photo Credit
The 52 month flexibility in production is more of a reality than a dream. Boeing will have amassed almost a thousand 737 orders this year as it closes.  If it reaches 52 a month, this year's end total order prediction represents, almost two years of production . Hyperbole? No, Just common sense order book analysis.

Here comes the rest of the story. Monarch Airlines are predominately an Airbus fleet where it only has aging group of 757 aircraft in portfolio. The rest of the aircraft are Airbus family members. This is a Sea Change Moment! Boeing has cracked open the Britsih airline with this new order.

Below is a historical seat chart of Monarch Airlines from seat Guru.

As you can see Boeing is eroding the Airbus market in full view of the A320 NEO market with this order. The customer/ticket holder will be pleased.

Fleet Information and Seat Maps

Widebody Jets

Economy class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A300-600 (AB6)28-2917.5"StandardNoneNoneNoneNo
Airbus A330-200 (332)3116.25StandardOverhead TVNoneNoneNo

Business class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-200 (332)3417.5ReclinerOn-Demand TVNoneNoneNo

Narrowbody Jets

Economy class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A320-200 (320)28-2917.0"StandardNoneNoneNoneNo
Airbus A321-200 (321)28-2917.5"StandardOverhead TVNoneNoneNo
Boeing 757-200 (757)28-3417.5"StandardNoneNoneNoneNo

Monarch Fleet Disposition Numbers from Wikipedia show the true significance of Boeing's order as it flips Airbus out and Boeing for thirty MAX in. Its a fleet replacement and expansion order!

Randy Tinseth is smiling today as the Monarch Airline card is played.

Current fleet

The Monarch fleet consists of the following aircraft as of July 2014:[65]

Airbus A300-600R2361361Retired, awaiting de-registration
Airbus A320-200101741743 aircraft to be retired Winter 2014
Airbus A321-200272214214Orders Due, 2015. 2 aircraft to be retired Winter 2014
Airbus A330-200251323374To be retired April/May 2015 [67]
Boeing 737 MAX 830Deliveries from Q2 2018 with options for an additional 15 aircraft.[68]
Boeing 757-2003229229Chartered[65][69] To be retired at the end of 2014.[69]