A moving average smooths those Boeing bumps and customers delays into an average number which incorporates months of high numbers and low numbers from actual production flow out the big doors. It engulfs those EMC and Flight line contributions. Finally any customer delay is incorporate with a more representative production to delivery number.
The below numbers are a quick and efficient view, representing the complexity of a production number that Boeing could use in over-all performance from inception of parts to delivery. The 10 a month goal for 787 must have all the various time flows through a final delivery number per month, rather than factory production in units. Boeing doesn't get paid until the 787 is delivered. That is the investors point of view. This handy chart below is just a reference point for time valuation of money based on production and delivery benchmarks.
Goal +/- 12/2013 01/2014 02/2014 *03/2014 *Projected Mo
Month Deliveries 11 4 4 10
3 M-M-avg 8.7 8.0 6.3 6.0
Production Goal 10 10 10 10
Production Trend (+/- ) -1.3 - 2.0 -3.7 -4.0
The production/Delivery trend indicates Boeing is currently falling downhill in the first part of the year. My expectation, Boeing is holding a backlog of production examples, through its decisions that it has in the works at South Carolina, and is regrouping the mid-section unit in Charleston. Boeing is also doing some regrouping of effort in both Everett and Charleston during this part of the year. By third quarter when the 787-9 starts delivery Boeing and its customers begin a strong march towards a + 10 a month number in sucession. The minus numbers (production trend) a month will evaporate by May and begin a solid position at the 10 level of production and delivery reign, until the backlog is caught up. By years end Boeing will have 200 flying copies in customer hands. That coincidentally will shadow the A350 entry into service.
Boeing needed a five year head start with its technology leap over the A350. Airbus took the low road to catch up with Boeing on an all new plastic airplane. But it did not catch-up at all with Boeing's overly complex and efficient aircraft. The Airbus fails by using dumbed down hydraulics and not using something similar to Boeing's robust core systems as found on the 787. When Boeing flies its 200+ 787 by years end, its leap in technology will have a completely smoothed out "Technological Gap" over Airbus from glitching. The only change that I can see coming from Boeing is testing and installing a new type of LI-Ion battery as science stabilises the L-I from labs. That effort is on track at this time with new battery substrates at the molecular level absolutely calming any heat problems.