Thursday, October 31, 2013

When You Wake Up November 1. You May Read 87 Boeing Billions

"Say whaaaat, 87 $Billion in orders scooped in Dubai for Boeing. I know its post Halloween and you may still be dubious of claims after Halloween, especially from the walking dead before morning coffee. But this one may have legs that walk through boardrooms around the world. Emirates and even Qatar orders for the 777X may  scare the the Beelzebub's out of you. No matter how cryptic this news message is from all of all places Hispanic Business it made me look and read on! I thought they sound as crazy as I was about Boeing in my Order prognostications last year when I said it would take 150 orders for the type to launch it. Well, this stellar publication only second to WSJ (:)has come forward with this terrific endorsement of my Boeing musing in a perfect world. Keep the applause quiet some people are trying to either work or sleep.

Must  read for effective coffee spewing:

Boeing Lines up $87 Billion in Mideast Orders for 777X

"The 255 planes under discussion included as many as 100 to 150 for Dubai-based Emirates, about 50 for Qatar Airways and as many as 30 for Etihad Airways, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the negotiations were private.

Cathay Pacific Airways was weighing a purchase of as many as 25 of the aircraft in a transaction that would probably come before the Dubai event, one of the people added. The expo runs from November 17 to 21 and is often a showcase for long-haul jets like the 777."

The above tease was copied first for your news pleasure before the morning arrives. Just sleep on it and if you are already at work in daylight, "put that in your pipe and smoke it" before a hundred links appear before your eyes and confuse the sensibility further. Boeing will launch way above my imaginary prediction from last year. Sleep well airline exec East of  Staten island. Everyplace is east of  New york even New Jersey if you travel far enough on the 777X.

Happy Halloween And Other Scary Stuff

FAA to expand use of personal electronic gadgets on planes

Much 777X detailed design to be done outside Puget Sound region

Boeing plans to approach Tata-Singapore Airlines

Japan Airlines H1 net profit slips 17.8pc



Be Very Afraid, Boeing Is Coming, Airbus!

Wednesday, October 30, 2013


GLENN FARLEY / KING 5 News Aviation Specialist

Posted on October 30, 2013 at 11:24 AM
An internal Boeing memo Wednesday stated that a good deal of the detailed design work for the 777X widebody jet will be carried out by teams outside of Washington.

The memo was sent to workers from Mike Delaney, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of Engineering, and Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of Airplane Development.

According to the memo, teams in South Carolina, Alabama, California, Philadelphia and St. Louis will carry out the detailed design work.

SPEEA, the engineer's union, said the memo doesn't mean core design work will not stay in Puget Sound.

The internal Boeing memo said, "at this time, no decisions have been made about 777X design or build in Puget Sound."

Boeing had previously stated that engineering work handled by suppliers for the 787 would be brought in-house for the next program.

"In addition, we are leveraging lessons learned on 787 and 747-8 to ensure continuity across the 777X program," the memo said. "The announced structure will allow for an efficient use of resources and enable Boeing to resolve design issues effectively the first time."

Makes you wonder what new approach is used on Boeing's engineering run-way. I believed Boeing was in the final leg of its engineering work on the 777X. If this referenced memo confuses, then it probably has succeeded in steering on-lookers off the trail. Something big is going on behind the doors of corporate espionage. Boeing must have assured SPEEA, this is a small thing, just a memo for effect snow-balling the competition gazing from abroad. An 350-1100 is hinted about with Qatar interest. Here are some out-source engineering points under this blogs consideration.
  • How far can you push a two engine configuration while maintaining its advantage over four engines?
  • What is the perfect balance between using composite assembly with metal alloys on Mini+ Jumbo's?
  • Is there a 777-10X  450 passenger capability with the new proposed base design?
  • Is there a 777-10X market, replacing the 747-8i?
  • What is the Airbus A-350 1100?
  • How long would it take for the 777-10X for achieving entry into service using  current Boeing advancements?

Out source these questions with a full engineering report on my desk by end of 2014.

Boeing may build a 450 seat configuration as a 777-10X. Airbus is ready to throw more chips into the pot with the hand its currently holding. Boeing cannot in snide fashion, ignore that threat, because it can replace the 747-8i with an ultimate Mini+Jumbo. Called a Mini Jumbo by default, because Airbus built a huge white elephant that will be lucky to sell enough copies to break even. Making everything else a "mini" by default.
Proof is maybe is this memo reference above, and SPEEA showing an uninterested response when these engineering trespasses that are occuring away from the North West! It tends to perk my attention that memos are leaked, and the engineering union yawns, during threats of outsiders working on the union engineering turf. Everybody in the Jumbo game would like to lay down the last card, and win the pot with a high card.. Airbus  may threaten an 1100 card, and then Boeing plays last with a 1000 card that would trump the 1100. Players at the table are waiting for the proverbial blink., before slapping the last card down.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

ROI Verses ROI

The two worlds meet often in the fight for supremacy. Especially in Technology and Fashion. The first ROI represents, a Return on Idea meeting the Return On Investment. The Idea is born out of brain storming, pride and the need for human relevancy. Frail human mental functions are subject to public rejection, no matter how well intended. Think of Blue Jeans and Mini Skirts for great long lasting ideas. Then again reflect on Bell Bottoms Pants, and  Eight Track Tapes. Horrible Ideas that burned out in the public conscience. The Return On Ideas either continues or are buried quickly.

The Second ROI is the Return On Investment. It is a measuring stick measured on corporate balance sheets for the investor's intrigue.  For every dollar invested what do you get in return. The four engine aircraft are rapidly becoming the bell bottoms of aviation.  Akbar Al Baker, reminds how whimsical appearing a customer may seem. Al Baker states he does not want 787-10's or any more A-380's, signaling a fashion change for multi-billion dollar purchases. It affects his Qatar airlines ROI plans. Al Baker wants what makes money in his airline network around the world. He bought tons of A-350's and 787's. Sorry for the late entry of the 787-10 and for the four engine A-380 reorder book.

Qatar Readies More Orders as Al Baker Studies Boeing’s 777X 

"The CEO said he would assess any stretch model of the A350 model beyond the -1000 he is already buying, but has no interest in the 787-10X, which is too close in size to the A350-900, a variant that the carrier is also purchasing.

The carrier also has no interest in additional Airbus A380 double-decks, of which it will receive the first example early next year, he said."

The Return on The Idea has flown the coup for Al Baker.  That does not mean the Idea for those models he passed on is done, but it does mean he has set his plans for his Investments in concrete. He will look at the 777X and any Airbus follow-on, if it has two engines. The two engines is the "Blue Jean" workhorse that will carry his mini skirted airline into the future. No Eight tracks in electronics bay. The 787 is a great airplane and will settle in on a remarkable career. It is approaching 100 units flying and going beyond 200 flights a day. The 787-10 does not fit Al Bakers extensive back log and his own inventory at this time. He is more cautious for his financial ROI than impulse ROI. An Idea is taking a back seat at this time until he can solidify his investment.

The Idea return is when the vision and desire, conspire into its own reality no other can touch. The investment is the structured journey to a successful end. Where no Idea can be ignored or can set aside if valid. The Boeing problem is unappreciated genius verses Airbus' more simplistic approach of lower risk. In the end Boeing hopes for its return on its Idea over the Airbus Return on Its Investment. Will the Idea win over the customer? That is the war we are seeing waged at this time. Airbus has sneaked a march into Boeing's stronghold in Japan having a 31 unit A-350 order with Boeing's Stalwart friend, Japan Airlines. No explanation is given in the press for that order from Japan Airlines. Strangely Airbus has not succumb to its usual gloating. Something is more going on, than just a better deal. Japan Airlines may have traded off the JAL Idea for a different Investment. That is where the soul of this war is being fought. The Idea vs the Investment.  Boeing is currently selling an investment full of hiccups that is a great Idea. Airbus is trying to sell its four engine behemoth out of its pride shop, which has not even reached a break-even point as of yet, since its introduction on the flight-line in 2005.
Boeing may have lost a battle in Japan, but Airbus lost the war in Toulouse. ROI verses ROI is separated by Risk. Japan decided its Idea risk is too high and opted to a lower Investment risk with Airbus, or is spreading out its risk with Airbus. It does not mean the 787 is a risky airplane, but it means Japan has spread its ideas broadly with its network by an Airbus purchase. If the Boeing matures into the Vision that Boeing seeks, then it will win. Airbus' near sighted vision cannot compete with the Boeing 787 when all Glitches are retired. Japan Airlines blinked in its vision so others may pass beyond them from its A-350 order.

The 777X and Al Baker are at a cross road with QATAR's stuffed inventory. Over 250 units are on back order (undelivered). Al Baker has  spent the cookie jar at this junction and can wait for the 777X process to reach completeness, before ordering a boat load of 777-X9's. He is free to speak of no 787-10's and A-380's with extreme wise sounding quips about stuff he doesn't need at a time like this. It's no reflection on the aircraft that he castigates as unwanted, but its more of a reflection he his Ideas and Investments are full up at this time. His Dubai order will be his vision through sunglasses protecting him from eye strain while others order at Dubai (uhumm Emirates).

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Boeing Meet Boise

The State  OF Washington is finding ways to keep Boeing in its state. One way to do this is to not keep Boeing in this State, but enlist a neighbor to aide it as a partner in this endeavor. There is a place with miles of open country near a population base of technology, homing 600,000 persons supporting an expanding economy. No ocean to confine expansion. Not only does it have an exclusive cheap electrical base with its Snake river dams, but it has a strong military presence in this treasured valley. Apply the name Mountain Home, AFB, here (60 miles south east).  Its Just south and east of another Military Air base  residing in the metropolitan area, and Commercial Airport as Gowen Field. On the edge side of Gowen pulses the commercial airport, making it a duopoly of separate military and commercial operation is Boise, Idaho.  Boise has a technology infrastructure for its new computer technology developers with Micron and Hewlett Packard. Multiples of electronic start-ups dot the valley.  Boeing should consider Boise as an extended shop for the 777X instead of Charleston, SC. Its only 50 flight minutes from Puget Sound, a test flight lap away. I challenge Boeing to come up with a better ready made spot in the US.

  • Cheap and plentiful land
  • Cheap and plentiful Power
  • An Unbounded (Non Union) Labor pool
  • A 360 degree Airspace
  • Urban University for Urban Industry
  • A Jetway To The North West
  • Rail connections
  • Available Industrial Parking Space For The Supplier Chain

Will Washington be big in Boeing's jumbo jet future? | DON BRUNELL

I know Boeing has looked at Boise for something, but have they looked at Boise as a North West Annex, maintaining continuity for aircraft development and production with nearby Everett? Or have they considered Boise as a fair weather port in a continuous flow of production , nearer rather than farther from Paine field. All first flight 787's could go to Boise on an initial test run for a park and fly, conducting production testing in Boise. A final flight back to Paine with the customers in its control, landing at Paine Field for the delivery center. Better weather and clear days most of the year. Expanding the Northwest Boeing operation in the Northwest would enable Boeing to expand the 777X development in the Puget Sound area more effectively. Sending it to Charleston is more complicated and expensive. The 50 minute flight to Boise is quick and dirty for moving personnel back and forth to a Boeing Campus located in Boise, ID. Its just a commuter hop expanding the Paine footprint farther South East. People stationed in Boise would benefit from multi outdoor amenities from white water, skiing and wilderness. Boise has an excellent inland fishery. You drive off a north end street in Boise and go right up to the ski area. Boise metro area will grow to one million in ten years.

Boise has not had a hurricane, twister or earthquake of note yet. The shut down risk from natural disasters is statistically mitigated. Boise could do a lot for Boeing as well as Boeing doing a lot for Boise. In this scenario Boise could save the Puget Sound Region of having the corner stone operations ripped out of the area, as Boise would supplant any Puget sound space constraints, by annexing a Boise center. Boeing would gain the flexibility it requires when expanding manufacturing in this area. A Charleston effort stretches the workforce and materials line thin in some cases, even though Charleston does production of plastic components for the barrel and surfaces at the facilities. Boise could build additional capacity for the western region as has Boeing expanded some supplier manufacturing in Helena, MT for the 787-10. My admonition is:    "be careful where you put all your eggs", One massive storm could cause havoc back east. Supplemental production possibilities in Boise diversifies that risk as a sound lower cost answer, that does not interrupt Boeing's continuity as what Charleston, SC has already accomplished, with its low production numbers so far away from the NW.

Gowen Field Is Boise's airport military twin side of operations

A-10 Warthog Wing is in.

More airstrip space for up to 13000, feet exist adjacent To Boise Airport.

Micron Technology Chip Maker Eastern end of Airport Flight Path in Boise, ID

Hewlett Packard Campus Printer Division

Boise State University, Urban and Technological Flavored University

The Composite Photo Of Boise

Boeing, ADA county has a parking space for you and you could add your Picture to this portfolio..

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Hello Dubai and 777X

If I had bags of money and wanted to be a 777-X Launch customer I would want a few notable concessions from Boeing predicated upon Boeing delivering these milestone.

A firm entry into service date (penalty premium for each day late or past due).
A performance milestone that exceeds what is offered per seat in the Mini Jumbo Class.
Commonality  factor with its family of Aircraft. The 777 flies like the 787 or 747.
Performance exceeding the A-350-1000.
No Technology Glitch Testing  while in service. Any 787 rashes do not transfer forward to the 777-X
Ground Operation advancements for effective and efficient cost savings over prior generation.

In other words, before I buy I don't want to sucker -punch myself with my competitor, Airbus. These are obvious points discussed in sales meetings where the sales staff have no control over the development process. The sales staff are soliciting a trust or bond from the customer over things that the sales team have no control over as in the 787 case. The sales team may say, "The 787 will not have any down time and be 99% reliable". Then comes a four month grounding due to a major engineering oversight on battery protection, and quality control from Japan's battery people. Ironically, Japan Airlines reacts out against that four month embarrassing delay, by ordering the Airbus' A-350 in a Boeing fortress.

What sales team is getting sucker punched? Boeing's! The set -up  is monumental and complete. Even though the word glitch has six letters it acts as a four letter "G" bomb at an airport security check. The  customer ask questions like, will there be more glitches? Then the sales team pleads for more snacks or a short lunch break.  Here comes the reality pitch!  Every time you move a progression forward there will be "teething pains, Okay"!

However this 787 progression goes beyond the realm of understanding with customers as they labor with its new aircraft. Software is the life blood of the aircraft, receiving a continuous transfusion of updates as it works through a myriad combination of commands, that may in certain processing flows, have an incomplete code handling a particular unplanned-for circumstance. Light goes on and aircraft is grounded until updated. Solution goes out to all 787 airplanes for module updates. This is no small task as there are millions of lines of code flying the 787 and occasionally it hiccups as a situation may cause a system fault unforeseen in programming.  A process is established for dealing with this type of glitching, which has a rapidly diminishing error event occurance, as code is corrected. The 787 redundancy and safety checks make it a sound aircraft except for pesky lights and error reports.

Back to the 777X sales team, the customer asks,"will there be any 787 like glitching on the 777X" I don't want that kind of risk before we buy?"  "Seattle, we have a problem," retorts the sales team. No fear is implored by the master showman from Seattle. The 777X is bringing forward a tried and proven technology from the 787. A price that has been paid in full during its project. The dividend  extends a solid enhancements package for the 777X,  by its demonstration of design completeness.   What glitch goes on in 787 R&D stays in R&D (its not Vagas Baby all risks adverted). The 777X is coming out clean. All technologies are proven or it won't go on the 777X. Boeing knows what works and what doesn't work. A quantum leap in aviation, greater than anything since the Wright Brothers has been accomplished by Boeing's 787. Boeing is harnessing that proven "leap" into the  777X. Remember how long  the 777-models have been flying and how well they have flown. The best mini jumbo in the world today.  Now we are taking that legacy and fusing it with the 787 advancement and proven technologies into the perfect composite/metal aircraft.

The A-380 does not have composite flight surfaces, the 777X will have composite flight surfaces like the indisputable soaring 787. The A-350 is all  composite surfaces like the 787, but does not have a core technology built in light weight electrical mechanism, it has heavy hydraulics.  The 777X is the best of both worlds, a large passenger heavy for 407 passengers, that fits into every major airport not tasking a port authority to rebuild Jet ways for only a handful of flights a day. The 777 will fit into the same spaces where current wide bodies fit. As the 787 progresses over the next year so will the 777X progress. Eliminating any questionable issue before the 777X is even built. The wing will give efficiency as will the weight loss. Combine the newer GE engine with flight management systems and the 777X will beat the competition in its XWB top end. The 777X is already an XWB without sticking that label on it. It is wider and roomier than an Airbus in that class. That is why so many 777-300 are flying today.  The A-350-1000 may be equal to the older frame, but does not approach the X series forth coming.

Glitches? There will be "no stinking glitches coming forward in the press.
Now you know why I'm not on a sales team. I'll tend to say something I can't back up as in JAL's case. Boy, are they upset!  An A-350, really? Just like Boeing's sales team biffing it on the merits of  unforeseen glitching, the JAL buyers squad, biffed it big, by taking out the girl on the corner. Uhuum, Airbus anyone? Its not a sales team failure its a Boeing failure. The twenty year leap over Airbus by Boeing will be realized by 2020. When Airbus board of directors go, "oops, the 787 is really a great airplane, we biffed it too" As the 777-9 quietly whooshes over-head on final approach in Paris!

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

A-350-1000, Say Good Bye At Dubai

Boeing is collecting extreme interest during the run up for the Dubai Air Show this November 17-21.. A Break out performance is in the offing for the 777-8, and 777-9 announcments. Giving a coronation of this type as being a mini Jumbo King. Already there is talk that the 777-8 or -09 will eclipse the A-350-1000 numbers in one fell swoop with an order  book exceeding 250 for the 777X. The sudden shock and awe has already hit Airbus as they await the sentencing from a collection of customers playing jurors in this case. Will it be a life sentence of being second fiddle, or an ultimate death penalty seeking many appeals from its customers?

The answer awaits in Dubai soon. All Things 787, may want to expand its Blog title to All Things Not Airbus. Here is Uresh short list of prime customers.

"Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150"

This short list could go higher with a few more surprises. The count is at 254 realistic orders with maybe a few more. At this time it threatens and exceeds the A-350-1000 three years old + order book.

Boeing is carefully working with its customer which pleases the "launch customers" base. They have engineered a platform where customers can add configuration contributions as a launch customers. That is the reward for being that premier customer. Japan Airlines  has missed an opportunity with Boeing. Feeling slighted they choose 31, A-350's, over its long standing partnership with Boeing. Sometimes a guy has to do what guy has to do. JAL went rogue and will wake up in a different world. A no Guts no Glory scenario for JAL was a big blow for Boeing, but its hay- maker at Dubai is coming back this November 17th. An exciting Airshow for all the hype that is building for the event.  I look forward to this airshow for its particular marketing strategy from Boeing, as if it will send a strong signal to Airbus. The is the capstone of these last ten years. Does Boeing really have Airbus right where they want them? An Airbus that is stuck with its under technological A-350's competing inside the Boeing sandwich of 787 and 777's? Two hundred and fifty 777-X orders with 30 more 787 orders would suggest the deed is done, as in, Airbus is trapped with billions invested on a lost leader family of aircraft.

Harsh as it may sound, that is Boeing's true Dream, An A-350 catastrophe in the Market. The door is swinging shut on Airbus. Airbus committed and went deep into its play book and may have to change strategy mid-stream losing another 5 years in the market place. I don't think they will because the "industrial momentum"  for building an "Edsel" is too strong.  Airbus is on track for late 2014 for the A-350. Boeing delivered the 787 late 2011 and should have two hundred copies flying by late 2014. Airbus' softer technological approach promises to be error free at first delivery. They took a strategy of staying within the envelope of proven technology with plastic and electronics. It backed off from all electrical architecture. It back off from Lithium Ion batteries. Those where the key 787 problematic areas. Airbus included expansive use of old and heavier hydraulics instead of Boeing's penchant for saving weight with electrical. Boeing's wing design is advanced of Airbus. The 777 is getting a really advanced wing beyond the Airbus A-350-1000 wing. It is a composite wing that folds up and fits well in the Jet Way area. The 777  is a blended technology aircraft offering the lightest weight aluminium body of new technological metallic blends. All flight surfaces will be a plastic wing having a performance envelope similar to the 787 wings. The side stick A-350 will fly like an easy ride in the park. Thumbs up for Airbus. Boeing completes the 787 like commonality circuitry with the 777. All Boeing Aircraft will fly like the 777. Or better stated, the 777 will fly like the 787, vice/verse.

The Dubai crowd have been waiting too long for this moment. Many design issues are already retired from both the the prior 777 and 787 models. Engines continue to advance every day. By the time the first 777 will fly, more GE engine types will have been upgraded through PIP programs. The final GE engine placed on the first wing of a 777 will just be the first engine placed on the wing. Several more improved types will be in the process before first delivery. The end game is Quality Management 101, "Always improving".  The 777 GE-X Engine is always improving. Any bragging right from both makers is under scored with improvement.. Therefore, a claim for efficiency is a horse race with neck and neck outcomes. The real prize is the the best airplane from an operational and service point of view. JAL lost its nerve with the 787 in this category. A 95% -97% service record was too low for JAL, and eroded all the benefits of flying efficiently by sitting on ground refusing passengers when it was fixing 787 glitches.

The price to pay of new technology quantum leap when it expected a perfect flight record. The great expectation was traded in for a dumb down 787 knock-off having a A-350 name. The no pain no gain saying flies by the window at JAL Now back to the 777 case at Dubai.. JAL won't be there as a principal, but a spectator. They will enjoy the event, but will miss out on a back stage pass. There are some many check list items to discuss at this point, but it is import to know the big picture. The outcome of this show will signal the Boeing success or failure in its Airbus strategy. If they succeed by surpassing Airbus in orders at this event.  Especially surpassing the A-350-1000, then it wins.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Michael O’Leary, Ryan Air Enough Said!

My Favorite Airline Exec is at it again. He is venturing into the 787 realm of thoughtful possibilities. Today's article feature the rational of a great airline leader building an empire with the 737 NG (not Max). I have teased and  made sarcastic remarks about his wisdom not understanding his bigger picture of empire and now have settled into admiration for his character and sensibilities. Stupid me,  he should have a movie made about his empire building. I love his swagger and success.  Today a WSJ article comes out revealing a hint of O' Leary's empire:

Ryanair’s O’Leary Backs Boeing 787 for Long-Haul Flight

Budget Airline Chief Says Order Backlog Delaying Decision on Trans-Atlantic Service

Michael O'Leary said Boeing's Dreamliner is the right aircraft for a no-frills trans-Atlantic airline as he continues to muse about launching a new long-haul service.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Etihad, Emirates, and EEggads Its A 777X Market

First pitch from the mound is the 34 "wants "from Lufthansa for 34, then comes Etihad's fast ball before the Dubai Air Show and finally its a slider in for strike three for Emirates. Will Qatar be left on deck because of the opening inning from Boeing's pitching in the next three weeks?

Blogging is a beautiful thing you can guess and write it out and watch the results. and then comment later as if you are talking to your self in a phone booth while on the beat. My phone both prognostications mixed with facts.

Lufthansa 34 777X actual commitments
Etihad        50 777X guess-work copies
Emirates   100 77X guess-work copies

Launch Guess work total 184 777x

(does not include options)

UAE's Etihad sets stage for $50 billion of jet deals from Gulf

The Reuters links always tries to temper its reporting with a European edge. They do introduce the reality of an Airbus presence at this Boeing party. 

Before Boeing even introduces the 777X at this party the attendees have been carrying on in the back board rooms for some years. This is the formal engagements party. No decent Arab power broker wants people to know whats going on until they have the spot light.

Aside from this astounding number, the Dubai meeting will hedge its bet with 25 or so A-350 for Emirates. It will be a Boeing date not an Airbus crashing the party event.

To further quote:

"If confirmed, Etihad's order could pre-empt a widely expected blockbuster deal for 100 or more 777X jets from rival Emirates Airline EMIRA.UL, which has said it may announce a large order when it hosts the Dubai Airshow next month. The deals are still under negotiation and could change in size and timing, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Boeing's European rival, Airbus (EAD.PA), is also competing for the business."

The uncertainty is,,, who gets the first step up to the microphone opportunity. Boeing keep your team in play and don't turn your back. There is another suitor hanging out. Be on time and be sharp. The late 787 and sloppy effort is still hanging in the air. A shower doesn't make people forget. I personally know this to be true.

A concluding argument would contain an unexpected event at Dubai, as in a surprise annoucement no one saw coming except the players. There could be another out of region announcement for the 777X or 787 in tandom. That may come from East of Dubai.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

The Case Of The Missing 787 Panel Is So Difficult!

Several days back I wrote about the missing panel from Air India's unidentified 787 is confusing, since the Indian Press gave a RED herring report on VT-ANA was the guilty airplane for dropping its panel on approach. Secondly there are no pictures on such piece yet revealed. Thirdly there does not exist a 787, VT-ANA ,as reported. Its just not in the fleet. A picture was provided of a hole representing the "missing panel" from a different jet that supplied the replacement piece moved to the damaged incorrectly number 787. It did not provide picture taken of the damaged aircraft itself of a hole.

AI blames engineer for Dreamliner panel fall, suspends him

Read more at:

Warning! Self promoting Link:

Have You Heard About The 787 Sky Piece Falling?

So What The Farce (WTF) is going on "Sherlock"

The Seattle PI Offers a Mea Culpa and Falls on Its sward

Its the second WTF in one article.

" In a post the other day, I suggested that this problem could have been the responsibility of Boeing assembly plant workers in Charleston, South Carolina, where VT-ANO was put together. An insider at the plant told me only using the wrong attachment screws could have allowed the plane to be delivered with the panel intact and then having it fall off in flight, which is how the incident was reported by the Times. 
The fact that this panel was removed on every one of 89 Boeing 787s to conduct a manufacturer-ordered modification of the environmental control system to correct a problem of condensation and poor drainage led me further to believe the news account that the panel came off a brand new 787. 
Early Friday morning Rabinowitz sent me a link to a story in First Post, reporting that an Air India mechanic has been suspended for removing the panel and failing to put it back. How a four by eight foot gaping hold was not detected during the pilot walk around prior to the flight is mystifying for me as it is for some of you who have commented on this story.

Having already relied on information that the event happened on one plane when it probably occurred on another, I'm giving this report a skeptical eye. It does remind me, however, that not all the facts are known. I will recap the underlying issues.

Air India and many other carriers in that country aresignificantly behind in safety relative to their size and importance in the global economy. Various audits and investigations into safety oversight have been going on for several years. Air India tried and failed towin membership in the Star Alliance, due in part to its inability to meet their standards for safety.Things have hardly improved. " (End Quote) 

Two witnesses are now on record as if something does smells like a Red Herring. Boeing is mysteriously silent and Air India is clumsy at best in blaming a cause. I went back to my Sherlock manual of fake reporting and found out we do not have the real story on purpose. I don't know how much Boeing has received concerning in-kind benefits for staying quiet or if Air India is getting a tank or two of Jet A to do what they do best, be incompetent.

Anyway if somebody could put the story in proper context, it would be much appreciated. Because a panel does not drop off unless improperly attached. It not a question of design failure or assembly mis-deeds, its far more into the realm of "total kaos with the ground operation". When "the taking a break whistle blows", and you have six more fasteners to attach, you go on break. Then come back as a supervisor tells you to go a sweep dirt somewhere while the 787 taxis for take-off minus six fasteners.

Boeing by now knows the answer to the mishap.  They will protect its customer with a plausible findings and recommendation that is taking so long to report. They are not asking its many customers to go out and spend money and time inspecting customer aircraft for an Air India stumble. There is no grounding effect coming or FAA bulletin, just another Boeing black eye for the team. Air India reminds me of the love-able Key Stone Cops.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

My Favorite Car Growing -up, 57' Chevy.

My 57' Chevy had fins, hand cranked windows and a distinct rumble of a small block 8. It was "sweet", even though it was pink and grey in the color scheme. Starting with an "inline blue flame six", or upgrading to the 283 cu.inch eight, and coming in various models like the sedan, station wagon or Belaire.  The chevy could attrach girls like the bees to the hive. Why doesn't General Motors come out with a modern 57 chevy with a 4.6 liter motor (same size as the 283 cu.inch rumble? Add all the modern fuel saving technologies and attrach girls to the hive like the old one did.

Let's step up this DREAM one more notch.  Boeing, why don't you come out with a new 57 Nomad aircraft? An all composite niche filler with cool looking tail fins, larger windows, and no rumble. The idea is to build an advanced technology new 757 plugging it between the MAX and the Dreamliner gap with sexy seating, a stiletto body, and a cool set of wings.  Attracting the savvy traveler on board with a fast and silent, awesome airline design. Which reaches beyond the MAX, and creates its own following going to hip places. The 737 MAX, maxes out at 189, and the 787 starts losing climb with a lower seat count at 210 and below. Why not a perfect 200 seat single isle 757. Made of composites with a right sized pair of engines of choice, for cruising "on the drag" on a Saturday night. Single isle is for romantics not liking a wifi flirt the second isle over. The romance is in the design, and its close and comfortable seating. With an average 34-38" pitch with 20" wide wiggle room. A 6 X 34 seat/row configuration is a logical choice for stepping down from the 787 base design into single isle CFRP aviation.

If Boeing goes for a Nomad(ish) 7-57 design, then I'm on board to Hawaii with my significant other. Or on a ski junket in Switzerland. Blend cool with techno in a single isle configuration, allows for efficiency, expanding comfort, and a smidgen more of style, making people forget about the Concorde from Paris to New York. In fact people won't want to get off this particular Neo classic 757, "new concept" design. So please fly subsonic, because I'm making my own time with the one I just met. Mach .85/.86 is perfect for a Trans- Atlantic crossing. Smooth flights are for smooth people cruising the Oceanic drag. Its a long 757 airplane, like those Hollywood stretch limousines in party mode with tinted windows.

One further caveat, Boeing please market this strongly,  as the corporate stretch limo for around the world. Also as the around the world classy "B" model for  "Business". A two hundred seat convention crasher.  Leather and all the trimmings arriving in stiletto fashion with its top corporate shakers and movers.

The C Model is for travel Customers who want to get from here to there in style on a single 200 seat isle. It is fast sleek and beautiful.

The "A"  model is for "All" things that the 757 is capable of doing. An interchangeable such as for military, freight or commuter capacity with interchangeable dynamics for a mission with a shorter take-off and landing capability guarantee. Make it the Swiss Army knife frame. A flying medivac one day, and a very nice passenger hauler the next day, after locking down Mobile seats that roll in during the evening and move on passengers quickly configuring to its next mission. From a special mission to general passenger service is just a click on the cell phone making it "a  make it so request". The Charter giant has arrived for football teams to bands and vacationers. Each seat could pop out in under sixty seconds and make room for a combo flight of special assignments and passengers or reconfigure for the commercial or military mission.

The "A" is an all purpose frame fitting the mission from high class to general transport over night. Going into the 200 person niche doing most anything with a high tech salon for its passengers. Not too big or small, but just  the size you need making it big or small within the hull constraints. Fast durable and efficient, having both the lap of luxury and the flexibly of the mission assignment. Aviation's first commercial luxury SUV of the air. A fully equiped company of 160 soldiers arrive in style to some outlying post mission ready and supplied.

Boeing must make this select niche perfect for both large and small operations with a multitude of possibilities to bring it back to life. And sell it as, "it can do what you want no matter the mission." in tight spaces or long flights. You have a plan, we have the plane approach for the 757. It has fins to make it cool.

57' Chevy Meet the 757-300 in Operation Condor.

Operation Condor Meet the 787-8 For Final Design Points

Boeing please get the three together to make it a "Chick magnet" in honor of the 57' Chevy. Please call it the Nomad and please let me fly on one for free when you make it? :)

Have You Heard About The 787 Sky Piece Falling?

No, the sky is not falling again on Boeing's pride and Joy, the 787-8. Its merely a piece falling off on final approach somewhere in India, near Bangalore.. A Very serious matter if flying at 40,000 feet.

Air India's latest Dreamliner has a gaping hole in its belly after the panel was taken out of it to be fitted in the other Boeing 787 that lost it on a flight from Delhi to Bangalore on Saturday. The brand new plane, parked in Delhi, is yet to begin commercial flights as it is awaiting certification from DGCA. Now it will be able to fly only after Boeing sends a replacement part for it.

Now you know the rest of the story. Peel a part off one Jet just delivered and preping for commercial service and move it to the aircraft in service that had the incident. Is this a normal thing going on for the flying operations around the globe?  The answer is yes and no. Parts do come off from time to time with no hull loss, where they land safely. In this case it landed safely. However, this a new design for a new aircraft that has had its share of mishaps in the design. Boeing knows exactly where this craft was built. The aircraft is numbered VT-ANA according to the Indian press article.

The known list for the Air India 787's

             Tail           Delivery  Date              Plant of Manufacturer
1        VT-ANH       09/05/12                           Everett
2        VT-AND       09/18/12                           Everett
3        VT-ANI        10/05/12                           Charleston
4        VT-ANK       12/19/12                           Charleston
5        VT-ANL       12/28/12                           Charleston
6        VT-ANJ        03/28/13                          Charleston
7        VT-ANM       06/26/13                          Charleston
8        VT-ANN       08/28/13                           Everett
9       VT-ANO       10/16//13                       Charleston         Supplying part to damaged aircraft

The mystery is complicated, because the reference provides a tail number that does not exist for Air India's 787 (VT-ANA) Looking at the list would expect it to be a Charleston frame that had the damage. The early builds came from Everett.

Panel falls off Air India Dreamliner midair, DGCA to probe incident

Article Quote confuses the issue by misnumbering the aircraft  tail number that was damaged as VT_ANA when there is no VT-ANA in Air India's 787 fleet. (see below reference from article.

"The missing part was taken out of a brand new Dreamliner (VT-ANO), AI's 9th B-787 which had landed here just days back and is awaiting certification to begin commercial flying, and taken to Bangalore. Only after this part was fitted in the aircraft grounded in Bangalore (VT-ANA) could the plane fly again after a delay of almost 10 hours. However, now the brand new "Christmas tree" VT-ANO is grounded in Delhi, awaiting the part from Boeing!"

Boeing, on the other side does not disclose the manufacturing origin for some strange reason, which leads me to suspect its a Charleston  issue that has had hold-ups in its delivery schedules over the summer  months. This may indicate a Boeing problem at the new plant. Just speculating again at this point. It seems to be strange little  press photos are available or concise Boeing statements that are compiled with inaccurate reporting from India, since the VT-ANA does not exist one cannot determine its origin.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Is The 747-8 Quietly Taking-Off?

Remember Boeing rolled out the 747-8i as an alternative for the A-380, at about the same time the 787 started flying away from Paine Field. Those big four engines quietly ply the airways from Europe to other destinations not making as much noise as Boeing would like. Quietly it hauls the freight the world around, and will be appearing in Korea as an adjunct hauler of persons seeking mass transportation in luxury.   The only thing missing is the intrigue from a name like the "Orient Express", is a full meal deal on tthe 747-8i  deck with Alfred Hitchcock.

The question arises, has the 747-8i quietly faded into obscurity? Or will it emerge as the Queen of the Skies once more? Boeing has spent billions working towards its Renaissance as the great lady it was meant to be. But, holy cow, Bat Man, four  fuel sucking engines on its wings. Two engines is now the new point of thrust when four engines likes alot of kerosene. What has Boeing done for you lately spews out of airlines boardrooms around the globe? The answer quietly surges forth, "quiet engines, and fuel sipping compliance, that matches and exceeds the A-380  per seat fuel burn. Boeing quietly strives to achieve better fuel performance out of the GE engines. The question before the aviation crowd, what does Lufthansa say about the 747-8i? What do its passengers say? The answer is in resent articles and its all good!

Boeing says it has reasons to be optimistic about 747-8

Please watch video in this King 5 Link

"Boeing saw five cancellations for its upgraded version of the 747, the 747-8.  But it also saw five firm new orders for an official net gain of zero.  But Boeing points out that it has 11 commitments from Korean Airlines and Air China, along with an unannounced customer that has never operated 747s before, all for the passenger version known as the Intercontinental.  

Airbus reports no new orders and three cancellations, but over time has received well over 200 orders for its giant fully double-decked A380 that typically seats 525 passengers in a three class configuration to 467 in the lengthened 747-8i."

Looking at this prospectus puts Boeing in the Jumbo game again. Only 58 seats under the Airbus with its longer frame, where it squeezes more economy out of the 747-8i frame. It fits in most dynamic and large airports. It haul freight in mass quantity in an efficient manner as it does passengers. This observation, pin-points the Boeing strategy for the 747-8. "Well played", could be the aviation aficionado remark of the year.  As the glamour for the A-380 rescinds into an expectation of just being massive, the 747-8i is carving out a significant niche in a new world. The follow-on orders will come about, after evaluation, as customers digest the performance and its on business plans. The next question comes in with a cliche query, What can we do with an old concept 747-8 verses the new behemoth on the block? Boeing makes this appeal, "We can do everything the A-380 can do with less seats to fill, in a Jumbo sort-of-way, and do it cheaper and more efficiently with great effect (succinct sales team talk)." You know that statement is couched nicely, but what does its primary customer, Lufthansa, say? 

We are doing things more efficiently and effective with the 747-8i and our customers love it. 

The A-380 is a showman's airplane, while the 747-8i is a "get it done experience", with a flair of comfort and quality.

Article Quote:

"So why is Boeing hopeful that more orders will come?   Part of the reason is that the first customer for the 747-8 passenger liner is reporting good results now that it's been flying a small fleet of the planes for a year.  In fact, executives with Germany's Lufthansa were willing to do a video testimonial for Boeing that's on Boeing's website

In it, one of Europe's top airlines, also considered by Airbus to be its best customer, touts the fuel economy, passenger amenities and cooperative working relationship in dramatically upgrading the long running 747 that first went into service in 1970. Lufthansa operates A380s as well as the new 747.

 "Based on the testimonials of our launch customer, that's really going to give us a lot of traction in the market place," said Bruce Dickinson, Boeing's Chief Project Engineer for the 747-8."

The door has been wedged open for the 747-8i. A handful of sales staff move out with the Lufthansa endorsement. This is a most important statement from a legacy customer that breaths life in the indomitable "Queen of The Skies". The relevancy endorsement propels the 747-8i forward more than all the new technology, engines and design features, even though they are key in its elongated life. Lufthansa owns the A-380, and knows in a side-by -side kinda of way, the comparative value for each competing type. Having made a commercial for Boeing on its web site is no accident. Its a validation of Boeing's effort for the 747-8i. It takes years for a customer to figure out buying a new type for its fleet. A customer may have to change its business footprint, plan, or operation, in order to buy an aircraft type. Now airlines are examining how could this 747-8i be a difference maker in its operation? How could its intrinsic value as a Jumbo beat the competition? Many of these questions are answered through Lufthansa 747-8i statements.

"In it, one of Europe's top airlines, also considered by Airbus to be its best customer, touts the fuel economy, passenger amenities and cooperative working relationship in dramatically upgrading the long running 747 that first went into service in 1970. Lufthansa operates A380s as well as the new 747.

 "Based on the testimonials of our launch customer, that's really going to give us a lot of traction in the market place," said Bruce Dickinson, Boeing's Chief Project Engineer for the 747-8.

But the story doesn't end there.  Another 747-8i has logged 300 hours in flight testing as part of a Performance Improvement Package (PIP) and is nearing certification.  The PIP program is designed to two things. One includes an upgrade to its General Electric engines boosting fuel economy additional  two percent.  Engines with the improvements are already arriving at the 747 flight line in Everett and existing 747-8 engines can also be upgraded.  The second upgrade is to put the plane's so-called "wet tail" to use.   The horizontal stabilizers hold additional fuel which Boeing says will increase range to 8,000 nautical miles. The freighter version of the 747-8 does not offer a wet tail option."

by GLENN FARLEY / KING 5 Aviation Specialist
Bio | Email | Follow: @GlennFarley
Posted on October 9, 2013 at 6:27 PM

Updated Wednesday, Oct 9 at 7:00 PM

In closing, King 5 reporting has opened up a very valid news article. The 747-8i is alive and well in Puget Sound and may be coming to an airport near you. The aviation Renaissance for the 747-8i is a key player in this part of history. The A-380 has an Achilles heal and probably Boeing can exploit that weakness with an accommodating 747-8i. The customers will write the next story for the jumbo. Boeing has done all it can for the Queen of The Skies, and they have done well enough to make the difference. Lufthansa agrees and does not hesitate. 

Monday, October 14, 2013

Boeing's Perfect Storm Sunk A JAL Deal

After taking a break during and after the JAL deal where it bought 31  A-350's. The shock of sinking has washed ashore. Boeing has done its damage control and is picking up the pieces from that announcement.  It is an announcement with years in the making. Japan Airlines a stalwart partner with Boeing for over 50 years abandon ship in the perfect storm. Like the movie of the same name type, "Perfect Storm", Boeing floundered the order dumping stars of its cast into the Japan seas. They all drown!  Now I have rested, and recovered from the epic tale of the sunk 787.  The story started a long time ago and was being chipped away, against its hull since the 2007 roll-out ceremony.

It starts with a customer who bet billions on sleepless nights, and anxious days over the Dream-liner. Japan Airlines has no more stomach for rolling headlines and giant rogue waves of publicity.

Three  Storm Fronts Collide Into The Perfect Airbus Order:

  • Five year delays the storm front
  • Glitches, Battery and grounding slams another storm front
  • 777-X aannouncement delay, places Japan out of that initial order line
Japan will not repeat another sinking feeling with Boeing's perfect storm sequence that engaged in the  787 project. They went to a "safe harbour", and now sit at the local Airbus Pub, sipping beer with Airbus. They are planning the next fishing trip. Too many sad stories with the 787 recalled while Airbus ordered another pitcher of beer from its bar.  You could hear a bleating waltz in the background.

Like all great stories true or fiction there are upswings and low points. Airbus caught JAL at a low point with its resolve in Boeing, and then got off the hook letting Boeing go and sink away. That is a common thought. Like all inspired stories that are true, there is a stunning turn no one can imagine. Did JAL make a mistake? Or did Boeing fail in its all new airplane? The answer will be played out during the next two years for certainty sake.  Like all airplane soap operas, there was a building separation between the partners. A growing mistrust that the relationship was not a good relationship after all. Maybe JAL should date other people in a trial, and find out if Boeing is the answer. Boeing kept bringing the candy and flowers to JAL's door step. Maybe JAL felt that Boeing was creeping them out in stock-er fashion, and was too nervous to go all the way with Boeing only to sneak out of it, by dumping Boeing when Boeing was having a good year!  Anyway the soap opera story is a captivating story. A person would enjoy a Laundry detergent commercial break for a kitchen resupply or take five for to maintain bodily functions during the commercial break. Silly as this seems, Boeing has been served by JAL in the Airbus affair. Jilted and shocked, this does convert into the typical reactions of a blown love affair over another suitor.

Boeing's emotions are secretly held. It will hold its head high and will comeback as many love affairs do in the movies, where the dropped partner shows up  making  a scene of how good or how worthy they are by some demonstration of valor or excellence. JAL may or may not respond. The November Airshow in Dubai is that event with all the marbles on the table with the 777--X announcements, which may explain why JAL is dating Airbus. The are angry they didn't get a invited to the 777-X Ball in Dubai and are snarling off with Airbus showing Boeing up a little (alot). After-all they were five years late showing up at JAL's house and spilled glitches all over JAL's outfit in a drunken, stumbling roll-out. Not only that, Boeing kept making promises all night long that it couldn't keep. Boeing made a fool of itself with JAL and now this smooth guy from Europe, we all love to hate, has come in with 31 roses and a delivery promise it can keep, because of the lower technology road it choose to take. The high technology road that Boeing took failed, regarding the mishaps and poor development strategy with the world suppliers were unable to deliver. Irony is that Japan's manufacturing delivered. Glitching was not a Japan embarrassment for being late on the date.

What is Boeing going to do to win back its first love in Japan? That is the next episode in this soap opera. Since I write script I will offer a draft script for this story. Whether Boeing will buy it or not, that is its decision. But writing is all I have for Boeing at this time. The scene opens up in Dubai with the Airlines of the world looking on. JAL is in the audience. Boeing stands up to the micro-phone and announces a new programme of reformation and quality. The 777-X character reformation is complete. Boeing is better and promises to never make those mistakes from lessons learned again. The crowd applauds. Boeing is really a good guy that had a rough spell. All manufacturers have its moments. Boeing's moment is of great advancement.  They are sorry for any inconvenience it has caused. However, this is about this new guy attending the airshow. A wink and smile is given towards the JAL booth as Boeing pats its heart. Orders are up next. Boeing has its dance card attached to its wrist as the Ball begins. In Victorian fashion, Boeing dance card has Qatar, Etihad, and Emirates with several more names listed on the card. (camera Close up , No JAL).

Boeing has a slight smile while thinking it took only 31 roses to win over Japan Airlines, when I'm now holding about 150 in one great bunch with the 777-X. Boeing is still sad, knowing how great that relationship has been and still could be.

The next episode will not be revenge or reconciliation, but it starts out as hope towards rebuilding the friendship. Boeing will be more careful on how it brags about its technological reality. It really can do what it promises, but is not in a smooth manner, and has worked on its social skills with being a smooth listener. Boeing may rope the horse with a finer rope, but often misses its target. Airbus stands closer and places the rougher ropes on the horses neck and rubs it while whipering in the ear. What Airbus whispered is what Boeing needs to improve on more than just technology, it needs to improve its catsing of its opening line.