Thursday, June 20, 2013

On Home Turf Show, Airbus Steals Boeing's Thunder

KOMO News Headline and Article

Hats off for Airbus For Waiting on Paris announcing its plethora of orders during Paris, why not? The illusion is complete, the orders are real. The illusion, is that one part that troubles Boeing from Paris Air Show to Paris Air Show. A subliminal message crafted in front of everyone. How Airbus can annonce so much at Paris yet lose the annual count, which is a truer picture of a company's sales performance. Boeing has taken the low route, announcing only when customers are ready. Airbus may take the high route of incentivizing customers and wait for Paris to beat Boeing at the world's largest aircraft show. I have alluded to PT Barnum before and may mention him again in the same paragraph with Airbus.

The illusion is the excitement Airbus tries to generate in making its case, that they are the World's Largest Aircraft manufacturer at every Paris Air Show. What is not known is how long in the making are these "timely order announcements"? Just focusing on Paris as Airbus does, is marketing hype. End of year numbers should have its own Airshow, Perhaps in the The US down in South Carolina!

Boeing's March To Paris:

   January 2013 Orders Detail
737Total
22

February  2013 Orders Detail
1261142179
737777787Total
March 2013 Orders Detail
737747777Total
283839
 April 2013 Orders Detail
737777Total
50151

 May 2013 Orders Detail
737777Total
2239232
Total Boeing Pre Paris Show Orders from January 1, 2013

 2013 Orders Detail as of May 31, 2013
737747777787Total
42932942503
Now Add Paris Air Show Numbers

ALC
30, 787-10
3, 787-9

SIA
30-787-10

United
20,787-10 * (10 conversions)

British Airways
12, 787-10

GECAS
10,787-10 

CIT
30, 737-800

Ryanair
175, 737-800

Qatar
9, 777-300

Korean Air
5, 747-800
6, 777-300

              Adding Paris June 2013 with OCO's (Orders, Commitments, Options)
737747777787Total
634844144*830
*Does not net the account from a prior year swap on the order books with United's 10 -9's changed to 10 United 787-10 order, at the Paris Air show in 2013. This is how United got to 20 with 10 new orders and 10 swapped orders from -9's in a prior order period.

This fall will add more orders from Dubai. Clark has stated he doesn't want the 787-10, a Red Herring statement. Boeing is silent on this Clark effort, where he mentions the -10 several times, where the 787-10 is not his cup of tea. Strange he keeps mentioning it?  Is that code for something big is coming in the way of the next airshow? Maybe! What he really wants is the 777X! That would "Complete Boeing" this Year. Paris is incomplete work, since the 777X is unresolved in the order book. I can't wait for Dubai. Airbus has emptied the order tank at Paris, Boeing has not. No predictions here, just a hunch. The Arab nations region is a Big Airplane Type Place to announce orders, and the 777X is a big airplane type. "I don't want the 787-10, its not big enough", is Clark's statement! Translation decoded, ("I want the 777X its as big as I want it to be in two models.")  Boeing gets another 4 months to present its X case for final configuration and customer specs, then we'll see.

So now we know how the year is going for Boeing from its Paris perspective. I admit I may have missed some orders, but this week's Airplane exchange has been hectic, and some smaller orders may have fallen through my mental cracks. Boeing.com, will do my head checking by the end of June. I will update when the smoke clears, thanks for patience. Airbus puts all its eggs in one basket when announcing orders giving high excitement on the biggest stage. If the US did an Airshow in December, it may finalize its books Airbus style, and make a big deal on its own home turf. Every Two years in Charleston might make Paris just a pit stop in the airplane race.