Sunday, June 16, 2013

Here Comes the 787-10

Launching the 10 has been long awaited. Recently, I speculated they would launch when 150 orders where in hand.  However, today's article speculates about 100 orders are in hand for the Paris Air Show. I still believe it will be more and above the 150 I first speculated. Perhaps options will shape it up north of 200 orders on the books.

-10 Has A Launch Customer For The Paris Air Show Prior Blog



The reporting must adhere to known facts and quantities and not give into ones own inclinations and instincts for the situation. I put a 150 order block number for the 10 launch based on loose risk calculation, and profitability goals a board would consider for a launch number. Also timing is critical and could move launch date and place of announcement without that golden number of 150 as an absolute for the -10. Several customers are in the wings of decision making, since they would have its own numbers, time and place considerations in play and Paris may not be that moment. 

However, the -10 will launch at Paris with caveats that lead to the arbitrary 150 orders, whether it be in the form of commitments, options or announced orders, remains for the Paris Air Show podium and microphone. The A350 is a planned distraction by Airbus, in PT Barnum's eloquent style.  The bean counters take over at the big show inspite of crowd approval for flyovers of newly minted aircraft. That's why people go to airshows is for flyovers, food, and featured displays. The bean counters want to hear how much money can we make stuffing 400 people into an airplane that will fly 8000 miles. That's where the money sits and the suits sway in awe of hearing maintenance cost are reduced by 30%. "My plane can fly 11,000 miles on a load of fuel". "My airplane can land at any airport in the caribbean flying from Nome Alaska with a load of rich Eskimos." The bean counters are shopping reality. The airshow crowd wants entertainment. Boeing seeks out bean counters, and Airbus seeks crowd approvals as the World's Biggest Airline. This spoken from the mouth of ringmaster Leahy, at the center ring in the big top. This year's show features who has the coolest wing, the gull like wing that flexes above the cabin or the new one with a scimitar rolling tip to cut drag and gain lift.  The engineers are trying really hard to find the ultimate wing package while searching for the El Dorado of aviation. I believe Boeing holds the edge at this point. Engines are a big point. Somehow Rolls Royce and Airbus claim they have given Airbus the best engine, even better than Rolls Royce and Boeing. Wait! That doesn't sound right, how could that be? Remember though Boeing has a  GE card yet to play since Rolls was removed from the 777X  considerations, and suddenly they have the best engine on the A350. Man this is getting complicated like personal relationships on soap operas.

Paris is full fun, foolery and fantasy in the summer. Just go with the carnival crowd and enjoy flying around the grounds. Remember your hotel bill outperforms Rolls Royce any day.

Dance Card Below: