Sense And Sensibility To The MAX

Two words define the 737 and the airline world, as a whole. Picture the airline market with many moving cogs and gears, emulating movement much like a composite aircraft. Sense has one definition and sensibility another view. The market place is caught in that vice of two words with different results. In 1910 you build a magnificent hotel  hoping to become the premier place in which to go in the world. The building is built to last 100 years. The beds get changed out every three years. The paint is applied every ten years and so forth. In all that you must keep guest entertained and updated with the latest trends into the 1920's. Just maintain relevancy. A very expensive need, is the cost of relevancy. If this magnificent hotel becomes a classic then the builders and business acumen have succeeded. By the year 2000, that hotel must have the latest appointments in service and technology (wifi) and maintain the sentimental flavor of a Victorian age hotel. However, the hotel market has shifted to a modern phase of many options and gadgets, bringing customers into the 21st century. Only people with a Victorian sensibility check-in to the overly renovated 90 year old hotel. Its market has shrunk into a refined niche for that old hotel, no matter how much renovation is conducted.

The scenario is true for auto makers, theatres, and cruise lines. The old Chevy Malibu is an example of re-invention in the 21st century. The Hilton has stepped up to a new era.  What does this has to do with aviation and Boeing? Everything, for the production of  new models and retiring old models, while keeping the customer relevant.  The NG was the next best thing just about a dozen years ago. It had all Boeing could throw at the 737 and make it relevant as a brand new model. Competing with the A-320 it had to offer more and more advanced features with its design. The   main selling point is that the NG would replace the follow-on Classic, which came from the original generation of 737's. Billions of dollars where poured at the 737 NG for its 25 year life cycle single isle jet. Those 25 years in service would make a customer buckets of money because of its longevity in service.

The 737 Max is on board in 2013. Promising the same kind of sensibility of having a long lasting modern single aisle airplane for the next 25 years. So, some airlines begin the retirement process on its 11 year old NG's fourteen years early, trying to make sense out of it. These airlines across the board would like to sell thousands of older NG's to down the line, to 3rd world airline companies just like the old days with the DC-3. "Wait a minute", someone says. "The 3rd world has grown up and are buying the latest and greatest from both Airbus and Boeing. That doesn't make sense!". What's a salesman of Boeing to do. Its sensibility says build it to the Max and a rate of 47 a month taking away Airbus' ability to shorten the wait on single aisle aircraft. Boeing is walking a tight rope of selling NG's and Max's at the same time. Ryan Air Bought 175 NG's this year and will leverage its capitalization with the after market Advance Engineered wiglets, as an ad-on, and install advanced engines making its investment fly cheaper from lower purchase price (lower loan interest payouts), and reasonable fuel efficiency. As a matter of speaking, Ryan  Air bought new beds for its hotel and added a world class spa and new fixtures, et al. The other airlines are going for the latest designs and features as a brand new Hilton.  Ryan Air is a good or great seat buy depending on your sensibilities. The sensibilities market shrinks with age. The Sense market widens with newness.

If you want to experience practicality and reliability you go for the tried and true product of your  youth. If you are adventurous you would want to to fly on all new concept airplane that may reach its perfection in ten years after delivery. However, the NG exercises your sensibility, for value, comfort and reliability of that NG. What is your sense? Adventure, excitement and  lower perceived cost? If you have a cost sense it is for a better efficiency, which is wiped out by its higher cost of purchase for the newest designed airplane like the MAX. It would be like buying a 100 mpg car for $100,000. How much fuel could you buy for $80,000, the amount saved by by buying  a $20,000 eco car. Even though the Max will burn 14% less fuel it is a more expensive airplane, and maybe could be replaced in 15 years after its first delivery, where the airline is buying the next slice of bread. By then many NG's will still be flying. The Max is for companies that will charge maybe an extra $20 dollars to fly on the MAX or a NEO. My sense and Sensibility collide on this point. I will pay for the ticket out of town no matter the model, regardless if the sense says go Max or your sensibility says go NG. It comes down to preference for the customers and the bottom line for the airline. The steeper capital investment on for the MAX could be paid back at  a quicker rate depending on the word of mouth promotion or an airline marketing for its new equipment. The real battle is for both sense and sensibility over its competitor, Airbus. It is Ryan Air Sense that the NG purpose will maintain its sensibility for 15 more years, and then it will have the sense to buy the next best slice of bread in 2030.

Predictive Nature of 787 Sells The 777X

Boeing, a few years back had the 787 on the CAD screen at various locations throughout the world. Engineers from all over weighed in on the physics of this aircraft. What can the 787 do with its make-up and new engines configurations. The vote came in at least 15% fuel improvement. "Now lets go build it", said Boeing. "Our computer models tell us we can fly for 15% less fuel than our own best comparable model now flying. Its a winner!".  Since that Eureka moment, even Leonardo da Vinci would be proud of, Boeing proceeded to build the 787 off the screen, testings, models and wind tunnel concepts. It took about 7 years to to get it off the ground. "Viola" it gained 21% fuel improvement in some cases but no lower than 15% in worst cases for fuel sipping improvement. Even though its been plague by the press reported with every little and big glitch, its an extremely safe aircraft because of its overbuilt glitch reporting systems. Glitches are not accidentally found by maintenance checks, but are more often found by purpose built system checking and reporting.

No other aircraft built to date has the the information about every little function working on board and how its performing. The detail of performance is so refined it becomes annoying with failed indicator reports, lights and bells.  All the bells and whistles sound off whenever something isn't quite right, even if it turns out its a false indication of something not right. However, the other side of the two edge sward is the performance indication proves the the Boeing engineers were too cautious by saying a 15% percent fuel savings.  It ranges from about 18%-22% depending on aircraft configuration and conditions. No too shabby of a prospect for airline customers on long legged routes. An aircraft taking off expends a lot of fuel compared to the rest of the trip. The longer the trip, the greater the fuel load weight it must burn and carry to go further. But the Average of 20% improvement in real time operations is phenomenal over the CAD idea of 15%.

This speaks well for the 777X program, and excites the customers if Boeing can replicate this lesson learned from all of Boeing's empirical data from the 787 project. Boeing has earned a place in the sales world of delivering on reliable information from the drawing board to the flight line. Boeing is claiming a 20% fuel improvement for fuel burn over similar current generation models with the 777X. How this compares with the A-350-1000 is a mystery, since that aircraft has not flown yet. That remains to be seen during the 777X development phase. The development phase will have continuous evolving engines from GE. The engine evolution will go forward right up until the first test model. Then go through a second evolution after test flights, and then have a PIP for new customer models.  I get the picture the engines are in a continuous evolutionary mode. The body design can be refined on the CAD and with wind tunnel testing. Lessons learned come forward from the 787 wing building. The 777X's heavier aluminum body over the A350-1000 plastics will not be such a penalty as the flight surface efficiency nullifies a slightly heavier aircraft than the plastic A-350 version of similar size. Boeing will increase airplane volume for that slightly increased weight, maximizing aero dynamics and canceling heavier drag features. This will enhance fuel burn upward to 20% over current existing aircraft in operation today.

The 787 lesson for customers did not go unnoticed. Boeing said, from the drafting board they could get 15% better fuel efficiency on the 787, and then they got 20% better efficiency in real time operations. The 777 X is aiming for 20% better efficiency over existing 777 like models, and Boeing may get more by the time it actually delivers, when using the 787 example as a predictive confidence builder for its customers. That is what is stirring the aviation world at this time, is that Boeing proposes an aircraft that Airbus can't touch in the current building and development cycle. Boeing's computer modeling is slightly understated from the building learning curve and evolution of technology during the build phase. By the time 2020 comes along, the 777X will have squeezed a few more percentage points out of its current 20% model everybody is getting excited about. Japan Airlines has missed the development high ground that Boeing is perched on, While Airbus is stuck building an airplane it never believed in, when it announced it is going to copy Boeing by building an Airplane where Airbus stated, Boeing couldn't succeed with a plastic airplane in the first place. I hope this confuses somebody. ;<)

Boeing Needs Two "Fish On" Call Outs

When you are trying catch your limit when fishing you need luck, skill and the right time for a catch. Boeing needs two fish before calling out "fish on". One is the Washington State legislature who has to come to terms with Boeing incentives this next week early, before the second fish can come on, The IAM union vote is scheduled later next week. If the Washington Legislature can't offer what Boeing wants, it becomes an non incentivize plan B move for Boeing using its paid facilities elsewhere, and then the second IAM fish becomes less attractive. Boeing needs to hook both fish this next week.  In 2003, the legislative incentives where laid down on Boeing's financial keel. However, wiggle room "rewarded" Washington State with a Charleston, SC plant, and extensive parts making in Japan when it came to the 787 project. The wings flew the Washington coop for Japan. Washington State got schooled by Boeing's lessons learned committee of expressway deed doers from corporate offices.

Japan has now schooled  Boeing by attracting all Boeing's business to its country and then Japan Airlines commits the unpardonable sin of ordering 31 Airbus A350. Having  dug a deep  hole of lost trust in Japan, Boeing is going to Dubai to make a statement next week at the Airshow, pointed  directly at JAL The 777X better be all that! Otherwise, things will get nasty at Boeing for awhile. I image some Corporate Change Management will occur, if the next X doesn't run smoothly off the flight line. Therefore, since I drank the Boeing cool-aide a long time ago, I think the 777X program  will stimulate the world thirst with a fuel sipping  777X, and view the A-350 as a clunker next in line to the Edsel.

Back to the Washington Legislature: The debate will continue on Friday November 8 and into early next week. How do we incentivize Boeing and not have them build plan B in like Long Beach, California of all places. Washington State can build wings too! :(  Not only that, didn't we already give Boeing the keys to land west of the Cascades and beyond? :) If the state can extend the 2003 May-Flower-like compact through 2025 with fewer loop holes, as in no new 777X plants elsewhere outside the NW.  With a previso that all major assemblies remain within Washinton's tax base, This exchange and consent with agreements of a tax benefit for Boeing, in the manor "pleasing" Boeing's Board in Chicago. The statement using the word "pleased" is a common verbage Boeing uses in PR bullets when announcing a deal with another  airline, and should be included when making a deal with Washinton State or The union. "Boeing is pleased to announce , yada yada, yada, that both the Unions and State of Washington have offered its services in building the world's best aircraft, the 777-X, somewhere North of Olympia and so forth.  At least I got Boeing's PR words in, "is pleased", in the approprate spot of this paragraph.

More pleasing thoughts on this matter. What do you do with the 5,000 folks in SoCal who are now working on the last C-17 on this run? I have an Idea! How about moving the 767 tanker project south, once flight testing starts on the 767 KC145 project.  The 5,000 would continue with military projects like the tanker, and the space opened in Everett would give the 777X a slick new production center. Its then roomier in Everett and Boeing could build the remaining order book on the 777-200/300 standing orders when expanding into the old 767 space for the 777X. Good thing Boeing doesn't have me working for them, I have many more ideas like that which could ruin a company, just sayin! The two fish to land for Boeing are, the envelope please:

• the IAM contract vote, yes, with Boeing and...
• Incentivization for Boeing from the Washington State Legislator

JAL Has The Rest Of The Story Opting For Airbus.

The Rest of the story Link for full read

JAL abandon Boeing 787 ship late in the delivery of its relationship with Boeing. Not only did it raise eyebrows in Chicago but caught the Japanese government flat footed its administering aviation giants ANA and JAL  Since JAL went bankrupt the government went in a bailed them out. Also giving JAL premium landing slots over ANA. It special relationship pretty much froze JAL out of taking on an Airbus a giveaway order of its aircraft, where it had over the last 60 years purchased with Boeing.

Now comes the caveat, with ANA now stationed at second fiddle in the airport line up, JAL received special considerations for new slots as part of the recovery plan and then spends its money on Airbus after having a "special launch" reltionship with Boeing and Governental support in recovery of its financial failure. So JAL turns around and takes the Airbus Giveaway order of 31 A-350 right before its governments eyes and sends them an e-mail about it. Boeing not complaining, (rightly so) stands back and says whoah, what just happened hear with our feature launch customer, JAL? Launch customers treat its partners better than that assuming they had crossed all T's and dotted all the I's with JAL. Cold is the word used and cold is what happened. What is Boeing going to do when ANA takes a shot with Airbus in a few months, another 30 A350''s. What wrong with the 787, or is it a quick swing to diversify while no one is looking?  I believe JAL has taken a calculated move at many levels in the Boeing relationship. I also believe they are cold and becoming independent and want act like the Arab nations asw a purchasing cartel, and have and make choices. Message is received by all participants.

They will now go the twisted trail forward without launch customer privileges or government bailouts. They want to play hard ball, and now they will get fast balls, curves and a few knuckle-balls along the way from this point forward. The Boeing pitching squad will treat them kindly, but no special deals await Japan Airlines from this time forward. The trust has been broken as Boeing did not see it coming from a launch partner JAL, who threw them under the Orient Express Bus.

Please read the entire linked article above and form your own opinion

787 Glitch Statistics By Press AI Leads the Pack

It dawned on me awhile back that Air India has an inordinate

amount of glitching. You see them as false lights blinking, Panels dropping off on final approach, and faulty parts. So I looked at where AI Inventory came from in the 787 line of craft

Below are AI first 10 units and where they are built.

Everett                Charleston

# 1                            #3
#2                             #4
#8                             #5
#10                           #6
                                 #7
                                 #9

Totals  4                   6

Step one is to isolate a problem containing two factors. Customer proficiency and source of build. AI has reach a statistical number most people can relate to and come up with a broad assumption without tying any one glitch to a source. This is dangerous ground in sampling.

• 98 aircraft built by  Boeing and delivered
• 10 in sample size
• 10% Sample Size From Boeing is The AI Fleet
• 60% of all AI 787's are built in Charleston
• 50% of Charleston's builds have delivered to Air India
• 40% of all AI are built in Everett

More detail in stats:

• 98- 787 are delivered representing 100% of the population tested.
• 4- 787's from Everett = 4.1 % of Boeing population and 40% of AI 787 fleet
• 6- 787's  from Charleston = 6.1 % of Boeing population and a 60%  0f AI Fleet

Now for some more number crunching without any empirical or actual glitch data.

The probability of glitches in Air India fleet should have 60% assigned to Charleston built aircraft and 40% assigned to Everett built aircraft. What becomes curious is that Charleston does not build 60% of Boeing's aircraft but some number ssouth of that, causing a weighted skewing in this example.

Charleston has delivered 12 out of the 98 787's in customers hands of which AI now owns 6 or half of the Charleston production. AI has the highest glitch rate publicized for awhile now. The main thing about statistic is to develop a trend or a predictive picture of outcomes in an manufacturing process.

Having had a lifetime effort wrapping my mind around statistics during performance auditing or error statistics you could develop conclusions based on the tests and raw outcomes. AI is a good case for this type of work. Several things need to happen at both ends of the test.. One is a Boeing Everett to Boeing Charleston comparison of delivered  Aircraft for its completeness and fault expectation, the second is Air India's ability to manage this new technology.

If a performance audit would determine AI is doing everything required operating its aircraft, then the shoe drops on the production source. If a majority of the glitches occur on the Charleston built aircraft where AI owns 60% of its fleet from Charleston, then Charleston has some serious maturing before its ready for prime time.. Boeing owns that data in the far reaches of its relational data base and is not public information. Completeness tests in auditing should be conducted on the process of building the 787. Something appears to be out of skew.

Summary:

• 12.25% of all 787''s comes from Charleston
• 60% of Air India is From Charleston, representing half of the Charleston 787 ever built and delivered.
• Air India is a Leader in frequent Glitching

Now here comes the "Nail Biter":

Both Norwegian Aircraft come from Everett and have had a recent rejection inspection on its aircraft where Boeing came and fixed it, Anomaly?

Boeing's Orthopedic Foot Print In The NW SoCal

Boeing is reconfiguring its cabin of industry in the Pudget Sound area. It has reached its maximum change management configuration for its rapidly evolving aerospace industry and indicates it doesn't currently have key parts that will work effectively in the Puget Sound, or has a better option existing outside the region. Even though its best most experienced labor force resides near Everett, Wa, Boeing is seeking a diverse manufacturing game board in which to draw answers for every contingency it may encounter. With the Charleston, SC facility barely making 1.5 787 a month its not a confidence builder for betting all in Charleston, SC for Boeing's plan. Have those strong unions in the NW, Boeing is slowly reigning in that historical commitment to the North West. After hearing the many arguments and speculations for sinking everything into the NW as a bad idea.

It becomes apparent Boeing thinks its best bet on a changing aircraft design is found from multiple contributions of engineering, wherever they are found. From the Southern part of California to Russia Boeing seeks talent specific engineering from five  potential key partners for the 777X design motifs. Use of titanium in an aircraft would come from Russia and California arenas.  That impetus to the 777X design, would rapidly propel this aircraft forward. With that in mind, Boeing is hiring specialist best suited, as the hired guns to do the job.  A Boeing Local Posse of engineers would take too long to ramp up on the 777X project. The locals will be used where they are best applied. Puget Sound is in the game only to the extent of bringing the aircraft together in an efficient common effort . 5,000 workers from the C-17 project would like to know if they can work on the 777X or just burn ttheir motgages and move.

The second question is offered by aircraft aficionados around the world. Where will the 777X come together? If its not Everett where the delivery center resides, and the world largest building has it own zip code, then where? This whole diverse scheme of engineering and design suggests a diverse scheme of assembly where all roads lead to where? Charleston, Alabama Long Beach(see below), or Everett. Segmented parts are assembled in a multi-locale operation and shipped to a central assembly point. Could St Louis be that central locale having assembles coming from all directions? Thinking about Charleston is like thinking about Everett,  only Everett is an assets best suited with its labour force needing the call of duty. Boeing does have a plan pending on early orders and has five years lead time to configure a build site (s). Making an early prognostication is similar to making a prophecy. I'm not a aviation prophet. However, something with Boeing is in a state of moving three cups around the table while trying to guess, where the 777X pea lies under what cup? Its best to start with what three cups are on the table.  My own three cups are logical for the most part:

777X work is focus of secret talks by Boeing, Machinists

Seatlle Times (NOW November 4):

"The national and local leadership of the Machinists union is in secret talks with Boeing’s top executives, trying to reach a deal that will see the 777X built in the Puget Sound area in exchange for a long-term labor contract, according to sources with knowledge of the negotiations.

If a deal is reached, it’s likely to be decisive in securing both final assembly of the forthcoming 777X jet in Everett and the fabrication of its giant composite wing somewhere nearby.

One source with direct knowledge said that while the outcome is uncertain, a decision is imminent because the talks would not be extended much longer.

• Everett, 24oz cup
• Charleston 12 oz cup
• St Louis  Bourban shot glass (cup)
• Long Beach Dark Horse coming in from Santa Anita Race Track

Boeing Eyes Long Beach C-17 Plant For 777X Airliner Production

Forbes Revelations:

Only weeks after announcing that it expects to complete production of the highly-regarded C-17 airlifter at Long Beach, California in 2015, theBoeing BA -0.18% Company is eyeing a new role for the 5,000 workers at the site: assembly of its planned 777X widebody airliner.  Boeing says the 777X will be “the largest and most-efficient twin engine jet in the world,” offering 20% better fuel efficiency than the existing 777 as it flies 350-400 passengers to ranges of over 9,000 nautical miles.  In combination with the new 787 Dreamliner, 777X is expected to dominate the high end of the commercial transport market after it debuts around 2020.

(Disclosure: Boeing and other big aerospace companies contribute to my think tank."

Now the west coast dark horse becomes California at Long Beach ( interesting port city)

Everett is logical because the talent and infrastructure are in place for the 777X.

Charleston is second, because it has space and a non union inexperience work force.

St Louis comes up third, Long Beach has over 5,000 plant experts from the c--17 project awairting orders in its massive space. because it has proven parts shipping through the 737 project duration.  Alabama is a dark horse in this thought but has interesting potential. The 777X could be built in two places simultaneously where the dash eight is built in Charleston  Long Beach area and the dash nine in Everett.

A diversification of attention towards a new model balances risks and spreads talent in an apportioned manner into the future. A west coast- east coast spreads labor risks proportionately between Boeing's own investment at the two locations without investing an additional and extraordinary amount of capital at a third location. This type of strategy would eliminate St Louis to a supporting role it now holds as 737 supplier of major parts for the 787 and 737. 

An unmentioned third source of labour has greatly emerged in the tech industry. That is of contracted labor. The contractor bids a sum based on required work offered by a company. The contractor supplies the skilled work for for the job. The contracting company provides training and supervision for the task. In the contracted agreement all benefits are provided to its employees under the contract. Competition is between  competing contractors for winning the bid. It has not become a part of Boeing's play book as of yet but could become par of that type scenario in the future. If contracting elevates its game with qualified skill sets for a specific technological requirement. The engineering union for Boeing maybe a target from its recent announcement of putting out to bid, engineering on the 777X to five different firms. 

This move makes contracting a step closer for all future projects. Contracting may occur on the factory floor with routine and repetitious jobs. Specialized jobs may have a longer shelf life as a Union contract, but will dissolve over time as a contracted temporary work force arises with the same skill set. Competition on the factory floor is a reality in the next 20 years for contracted labor in the production phase. Charleston  is that future the North West is looking at. State Tax breaks can only go so far for saving jobs. Automated systems gives unions less leverage for maintaining an ownership over Boeing's labor force.

Back to the new model type, the 777X. Boeing is making a proportioned effort towards the future with each model type. The 787 was the Charleston moment. The 777X is the engineering move and possibly a new build site. A new model  is a circumvention opportunity for the old problems with the unions and other monopolies from supply chain issues. Boeing wants to keep choices on the board and not lock into a strangle hold over its own destiny building newer aircraft. A new model (777X) means a new opportunity to shake the shackles of the status quot. What Boeing sees in the future is control of its own destiny. If the cost of moving is the right price, then it will move and leave behind that status quot it opposes. The JAL/Airbus order could be a reaction as Boeing seeks to build 777X in the states. All parts of the Boeing story are moving from some event we are not aware of, or of contemplating as a reason for why Boeing does what it does. The orthopedic footprint in the NW is about to get adjusted.

The Boeing Light Comes On and The Max Will Run out Renton's Door

Boeing to Increase 737 production  "Airwise"

Boeing is to increase production of its workhorse 737 aircraft to 47 planes per month by 2017 from 38 now, a surprise move that analysts said boded well for the company, its suppliers and airlines.

Boeing had already announced plans to increase production to 42 per month in the first half of 2014, matching current output by rival Airbus of its competing A320 jet family.

With the new target, Boeing would enter territory that Airbus isn't attempting. The output, from the same footprint at Boeing's 737 factory in Renton, Washington, will not only boost Boeing's cash pile, it will give the company more delivery slots to sell to airlines who want new, fuel-efficient planes sooner.

"This is a big, bold, but very strategic move by Boeing," that follows recent competitive wins by Airbus that likely have been "more heavily price-driven than in the past," said Russell Solomon, an analyst at Moody's in New York.

He said Boeing can also be aggressive on price and now can talk to customers about new orders "with the very pointed message that they won't have to wait as long to get their greatly desired new equipment if they buy Boeing vs. the other guy."

************************************************

A bold move is part of a larger strategy of parry and thrust sward play with Airbus. Airbus is dimishing its customer A320 back orders at an alarming 42 a month pace, beating Boeing's thrust of 38 a month as of this current moment. Boeing would like the high ground in the single aisle market of 47 units per month, as stated in this article. What more could Boeing do by making this production disadvantage  on Airbus? Airbus stole the march on Boeing by adding 2400 Neo orders to its book. When Boeing only has taken 1500 MAX orders since its offering of the Max. Having started over a year later, it lags the Airbus Back Log. So its waging that a 47 unit output will sell more single aisle, because you will get them sooner into customers arms in this race.  Yeah, I'll call it the "Arms Race"
***********************************************

Because of the high volume and relatively low production costs, the 737 and A320 are often seen as cash cows, and play a big role in funding development of larger and technically more challenging aircraft like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner or the Airbus A350.

Boeing's rate increase was more ambitious than some forecasts. Carter Copeland, analyst at Barclays in New York, said he had penciled in Boeing building 46 737s a month around 2018. "I definitely didn't expect an announcement on it so soon," he said.

Just last week, Boeing said it would lift production of its 787 wide-body jet to 12 per month by 2016 and 14 per month by 2020, up from a target of 10 a month by the end of 2013.

While Copeland said he didn't have major concerns about the 737 supply chain keeping up with higher rates, he said producing so many of the current 737s and the 737 MAX "would seem somewhat challenging on the surface."

*************************************************

Challenging but necessary, the output of single aisle runs concurrently with these points of interest maintaining a shorter backlog in Boeing Just In Time (JIT)approach.

• Increase cash flows
• Increased investment performance
• Customer delivery within a 5 year planning window
• Greater Customer opportunity to maintain a shorter wait when first ordering.
• 5 a month increase ='s 60 unit  a year closer to delivery

*************************************

He added, "I'm sure the supply chain is quite pleased as the 737 is a profit leader for essentially everyone who's on it."

Boeing commercial planes vice president Beverly Wyse said in a statement that the higher rate would "lay a solid foundation as we bridge into production on the 737 MAX."

The company has 3,400 orders for 737 aircraft, including about 1,500 next-generation MAX models.

The 737 MAX will have new engines and other changes to make it about 14 percent more fuel efficient than current models.

Boeing said the first delivery of the 737 MAX is on track for the third quarter of 2017.

In contrast to the Boeing target, the chief executive of Airbus this week reiterated plans to hold its production rate of competing A320-family aircraft steady at 42 per month, saying the European company had some concerns about the fragility of the supply chain.

Rob Stallard, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said Boeing's move "might give Airbus reason to accelerate" its production beyond the 42 a month.

Airbus' output for narrow-body jets is based on an 11.5-month production calendar, implying average capacity for 483 aircraft like the single-aisle A320 a year.

Boeing is based on a 12 month production schedule, though the company traditionally closes for the week between Christmas and New Year.

Stallard said the new Boeing target was "incrementally positive" because speculation about rate increases in the latter half of the decade may had have "fully baked in the ramp, and suggests that the current up-cycle continues to have legs."

He added that any rate ramp carries risk.

**********************************************

The JIT Arms Race has started and Boeing aims to win this race. Its new engines and news designs are placed on a winner, should propel it beyond its order books, as all empediments are removed. The backlog does have risks as well as having a thin order book at the front end. In all JIT formulates a production build up number, and this is where the magic occurs for the bottom line. That build-up works hand in hand with marketing. The sales teams needs to know a year in advance, what are its stated goals, and can it achieve the goals on time, in order to keep the Arms Race on target. Get those units in the customers arms when the sales team makes that pitch of "on time delivery in quanity". 

The, "when do you want it question?", is just as important as the "how many do you want or need questions". Its hard to sell someone with a company five year plan in the vest pocket talking to Boeing marketing team about deliveries will start in 2021. Boeing hopes, that my friend is a NEO issue. Boeing would like to tune is sales program with customer knowledge. Where they will be ready to delivery on a customer's five year plan in numbers, and advancements, beyond its competitor whom is building the NEO.

The  NEO is backed into a full order book Jam with this type of strategy as it has 2400 NEO at rest and not going anywhere soon. Boeing too, is trying to break out of that strangle hold by targeting production to solve the problem. 

Having a 47 a month single aisle production capacity or delivery rate at peak periods, allows the marketing team more flexibilty for delivering promises it makes. Room that it requires, without it would box them into a... "well I don't know just yet, if we can get you your 20 Max's in the year 2020. Have you looked at our Gold care program Yet?" :>)

The build-up number for the order book, as an example: should have a two year production backlog which delivers a Just in time pace meeting customer planning goals for financing and route management, and it aalso migates risk from lack of back log for Boeing. This example would allow sales and demand some flexibilty with a 47 per month break neck production speed.  

They have publically recoginized this arms race and are actively employing the troops to get single aisle NG's and Max's into the Boeing customer's arms from Renton, Washington's lakeside doors .

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Airbus and Boeing both see demand for over USD$2 trillion worth of such aircraft over the next 20 years.

(Reuters)

When You Wake Up November 1. You May Read 87 Boeing Billions

"Say whaaaat, 87 $Billion in orders scooped in Dubai for Boeing. I know its post Halloween and you may still be dubious of claims after Halloween, especially from the walking dead before morning coffee. But this one may have legs that walk through boardrooms around the world. Emirates and even Qatar orders for the 777X may  scare the the Beelzebub's out of you. No matter how cryptic this news message is from all of all places Hispanic Business it made me look and read on! I thought they sound as crazy as I was about Boeing in my Order prognostications last year when I said it would take 150 orders for the type to launch it. Well, this stellar publication only second to WSJ (:)has come forward with this terrific endorsement of my Boeing musing in a perfect world. Keep the applause quiet some people are trying to either work or sleep.

Must  read for effective coffee spewing:

Boeing Lines up $87 Billion in Mideast Orders for 777X

"The 255 planes under discussion included as many as 100 to 150 for Dubai-based Emirates, about 50 for Qatar Airways and as many as 30 for Etihad Airways, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the negotiations were private.

Cathay Pacific Airways was weighing a purchase of as many as 25 of the aircraft in a transaction that would probably come before the Dubai event, one of the people added. The expo runs from November 17 to 21 and is often a showcase for long-haul jets like the 777."

The above tease was copied first for your news pleasure before the morning arrives. Just sleep on it and if you are already at work in daylight, "put that in your pipe and smoke it" before a hundred links appear before your eyes and confuse the sensibility further. Boeing will launch way above my imaginary prediction from last year. Sleep well airline exec East of  Staten island. Everyplace is east of  New york even New Jersey if you travel far enough on the 777X.

Happy Halloween And Other Scary Stuff

FAA to expand use of personal electronic gadgets on planes
                                                                                           



Much 777X detailed design to be done outside Puget Sound region
                                                                                                                                         




Boeing plans to approach Tata-Singapore Airlines
                                                                                                  

Japan Airlines H1 net profit slips 17.8pc
                                                     

Boeing official sees Indian carriers turning the corner in Q3

                                                                                                     

BOOOO...  Boeing To Scatter 777 Design Work

                                                                                            

Be Very Afraid, Boeing Is Coming, Airbus!

THE MEMO ON THE FLOOR

GLENN FARLEY / KING 5 News Aviation Specialist

NWCN.com

Posted on October 30, 2013 at 11:24 AM

An internal Boeing memo Wednesday stated that a good deal of the detailed design work for the 777X widebody jet will be carried out by teams outside of Washington.

The memo was sent to workers from Mike Delaney, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of Engineering, and Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of Airplane Development.

According to the memo, teams in South Carolina, Alabama, California, Philadelphia and St. Louis will carry out the detailed design work.

SPEEA, the engineer's union, said the memo doesn't mean core design work will not stay in Puget Sound.

The internal Boeing memo said, "at this time, no decisions have been made about 777X design or build in Puget Sound."

Boeing had previously stated that engineering work handled by suppliers for the 787 would be brought in-house for the next program.

"In addition, we are leveraging lessons learned on 787 and 747-8 to ensure continuity across the 777X program," the memo said. "The announced structure will allow for an efficient use of resources and enable Boeing to resolve design issues effectively the first time."

Makes you wonder what new approach is used on Boeing's engineering run-way. I believed Boeing was in the final leg of its engineering work on the 777X. If this referenced memo confuses, then it probably has succeeded in steering on-lookers off the trail. Something big is going on behind the doors of corporate espionage. Boeing must have assured SPEEA, this is a small thing, just a memo for effect snow-balling the competition gazing from abroad. An 350-1100 is hinted about with Qatar interest. Here are some out-source engineering points under this blogs consideration.

• How far can you push a two engine configuration while maintaining its advantage over four engines?
• What is the perfect balance between using composite assembly with metal alloys on Mini+ Jumbo's?
• Is there a 777-10X  450 passenger capability with the new proposed base design?
• Is there a 777-10X market, replacing the 747-8i?
• What is the Airbus A-350 1100?
• How long would it take for the 777-10X for achieving entry into service using  current Boeing advancements?

Out source these questions with a full engineering report on my desk by end of 2014.

Boeing may build a 450 seat configuration as a 777-10X. Airbus is ready to throw more chips into the pot with the hand its currently holding. Boeing cannot in snide fashion, ignore that threat, because it can replace the 747-8i with an ultimate Mini+Jumbo. Called a Mini Jumbo by default, because Airbus built a huge white elephant that will be lucky to sell enough copies to break even. Making everything else a "mini" by default.

Proof is maybe is this memo reference above, and SPEEA showing an uninterested response when these engineering trespasses that are occuring away from the North West! It tends to perk my attention that memos are leaked, and the engineering union yawns, during threats of outsiders working on the union engineering turf. Everybody in the Jumbo game would like to lay down the last card, and win the pot with a high card.. Airbus  may threaten an 1100 card, and then Boeing plays last with a 1000 card that would trump the 1100. Players at the table are waiting for the proverbial blink., before slapping the last card down.

ROI Verses ROI

The two worlds meet often in the fight for supremacy. Especially in Technology and Fashion. The first ROI represents, a Return on Idea meeting the Return On Investment. The Idea is born out of brain storming, pride and the need for human relevancy. Frail human mental functions are subject to public rejection, no matter how well intended. Think of Blue Jeans and Mini Skirts for great long lasting ideas. Then again reflect on Bell Bottoms Pants, and  Eight Track Tapes. Horrible Ideas that burned out in the public conscience. The Return On Ideas either continues or are buried quickly.

The Second ROI is the Return On Investment. It is a measuring stick measured on corporate balance sheets for the investor's intrigue.  For every dollar invested what do you get in return. The four engine aircraft are rapidly becoming the bell bottoms of aviation.  Akbar Al Baker, reminds how whimsical appearing a customer may seem. Al Baker states he does not want 787-10's or any more A-380's, signaling a fashion change for multi-billion dollar purchases. It affects his Qatar airlines ROI plans. Al Baker wants what makes money in his airline network around the world. He bought tons of A-350's and 787's. Sorry for the late entry of the 787-10 and for the four engine A-380 reorder book.

Qatar Readies More Orders as Al Baker Studies Boeing’s 777X 

"The CEO said he would assess any stretch model of the A350 model beyond the -1000 he is already buying, but has no interest in the 787-10X, which is too close in size to the A350-900, a variant that the carrier is also purchasing.

The carrier also has no interest in additional Airbus A380 double-decks, of which it will receive the first example early next year, he said."

The Return on The Idea has flown the coup for Al Baker.  That does not mean the Idea for those models he passed on is done, but it does mean he has set his plans for his Investments in concrete. He will look at the 777X and any Airbus follow-on, if it has two engines. The two engines is the "Blue Jean" workhorse that will carry his mini skirted airline into the future. No Eight tracks in electronics bay. The 787 is a great airplane and will settle in on a remarkable career. It is approaching 100 units flying and going beyond 200 flights a day. The 787-10 does not fit Al Bakers extensive back log and his own inventory at this time. He is more cautious for his financial ROI than impulse ROI. An Idea is taking a back seat at this time until he can solidify his investment.

The Idea return is when the vision and desire, conspire into its own reality no other can touch. The investment is the structured journey to a successful end. Where no Idea can be ignored or can set aside if valid. The Boeing problem is unappreciated genius verses Airbus' more simplistic approach of lower risk. In the end Boeing hopes for its return on its Idea over the Airbus Return on Its Investment. Will the Idea win over the customer? That is the war we are seeing waged at this time. Airbus has sneaked a march into Boeing's stronghold in Japan having a 31 unit A-350 order with Boeing's Stalwart friend, Japan Airlines. No explanation is given in the press for that order from Japan Airlines. Strangely Airbus has not succumb to its usual gloating. Something is more going on, than just a better deal. Japan Airlines may have traded off the JAL Idea for a different Investment. That is where the soul of this war is being fought. The Idea vs the Investment.  Boeing is currently selling an investment full of hiccups that is a great Idea. Airbus is trying to sell its four engine behemoth out of its pride shop, which has not even reached a break-even point as of yet, since its introduction on the flight-line in 2005.

Boeing may have lost a battle in Japan, but Airbus lost the war in Toulouse. ROI verses ROI is separated by Risk. Japan decided its Idea risk is too high and opted to a lower Investment risk with Airbus, or is spreading out its risk with Airbus. It does not mean the 787 is a risky airplane, but it means Japan has spread its ideas broadly with its network by an Airbus purchase. If the Boeing matures into the Vision that Boeing seeks, then it will win. Airbus' near sighted vision cannot compete with the Boeing 787 when all Glitches are retired. Japan Airlines blinked in its vision so others may pass beyond them from its A-350 order.

The 777X and Al Baker are at a cross road with QATAR's stuffed inventory. Over 250 units are on back order (undelivered). Al Baker has  spent the cookie jar at this junction and can wait for the 777X process to reach completeness, before ordering a boat load of 777-X9's. He is free to speak of no 787-10's and A-380's with extreme wise sounding quips about stuff he doesn't need at a time like this. It's no reflection on the aircraft that he castigates as unwanted, but its more of a reflection he his Ideas and Investments are full up at this time. His Dubai order will be his vision through sunglasses protecting him from eye strain while others order at Dubai (uhumm Emirates).

Boeing Meet Boise

The State  OF Washington is finding ways to keep Boeing in its state. One way to do this is to not keep Boeing in this State, but enlist a neighbor to aide it as a partner in this endeavor. There is a place with miles of open country near a population base of technology, homing 600,000 persons supporting an expanding economy. No ocean to confine expansion. Not only does it have an exclusive cheap electrical base with its Snake river dams, but it has a strong military presence in this treasured valley. Apply the name Mountain Home, AFB, here (60 miles south east).  Its Just south and east of another Military Air base  residing in the metropolitan area, and Commercial Airport as Gowen Field. On the edge side of Gowen pulses the commercial airport, making it a duopoly of separate military and commercial operation is Boise, Idaho.  Boise has a technology infrastructure for its new computer technology developers with Micron and Hewlett Packard. Multiples of electronic start-ups dot the valley.  Boeing should consider Boise as an extended shop for the 777X instead of Charleston, SC. Its only 50 flight minutes from Puget Sound, a test flight lap away. I challenge Boeing to come up with a better ready made spot in the US.

• Cheap and plentiful land
• Cheap and plentiful Power
• An Unbounded (Non Union) Labor pool
• A 360 degree Airspace
• Urban University for Urban Industry
• A Jetway To The North West
• Rail connections
• Available Industrial Parking Space For The Supplier Chain

Will Washington be big in Boeing's jumbo jet future? | DON BRUNELL

I know Boeing has looked at Boise for something, but have they looked at Boise as a North West Annex, maintaining continuity for aircraft development and production with nearby Everett? Or have they considered Boise as a fair weather port in a continuous flow of production , nearer rather than farther from Paine field. All first flight 787's could go to Boise on an initial test run for a park and fly, conducting production testing in Boise. A final flight back to Paine with the customers in its control, landing at Paine Field for the delivery center. Better weather and clear days most of the year. Expanding the Northwest Boeing operation in the Northwest would enable Boeing to expand the 777X development in the Puget Sound area more effectively. Sending it to Charleston is more complicated and expensive. The 50 minute flight to Boise is quick and dirty for moving personnel back and forth to a Boeing Campus located in Boise, ID. Its just a commuter hop expanding the Paine footprint farther South East. People stationed in Boise would benefit from multi outdoor amenities from white water, skiing and wilderness. Boise has an excellent inland fishery. You drive off a north end street in Boise and go right up to the ski area. Boise metro area will grow to one million in ten years.

Boise has not had a hurricane, twister or earthquake of note yet. The shut down risk from natural disasters is statistically mitigated. Boise could do a lot for Boeing as well as Boeing doing a lot for Boise. In this scenario Boise could save the Puget Sound Region of having the corner stone operations ripped out of the area, as Boise would supplant any Puget sound space constraints, by annexing a Boise center. Boeing would gain the flexibility it requires when expanding manufacturing in this area. A Charleston effort stretches the workforce and materials line thin in some cases, even though Charleston does production of plastic components for the barrel and surfaces at the facilities. Boise could build additional capacity for the western region as has Boeing expanded some supplier manufacturing in Helena, MT for the 787-10. My admonition is:    "be careful where you put all your eggs", One massive storm could cause havoc back east. Supplemental production possibilities in Boise diversifies that risk as a sound lower cost answer, that does not interrupt Boeing's continuity as what Charleston, SC has already accomplished, with its low production numbers so far away from the NW.

Gowen Field Is Boise's airport military twin side of operations

A-10 Warthog Wing is in.

More airstrip space for up to 13000, feet exist adjacent To Boise Airport.

Micron Technology Chip Maker Eastern end of Airport Flight Path in Boise, ID

Hewlett Packard Campus Printer Division

Boise State University, Urban and Technological Flavored University

The Composite Photo Of Boise

Boeing, ADA county has a parking space for you and you could add your Picture to this portfolio..

Hello Dubai and 777X

If I had bags of money and wanted to be a 777-X Launch customer I would want a few notable concessions from Boeing predicated upon Boeing delivering these milestone.

• A firm entry into service date (penalty premium for each day late or past due).
• A performance milestone that exceeds what is offered per seat in the Mini Jumbo Class.
• Commonality  factor with its family of Aircraft. The 777 flies like the 787 or 747.
• Performance exceeding the A-350-1000.
• No Technology Glitch Testing  while in service. Any 787 rashes do not transfer forward to the 777-X
• Ground Operation advancements for effective and efficient cost savings over prior generation.

In other words, before I buy I don't want to sucker -punch myself with my competitor, Airbus. These are obvious points discussed in sales meetings where the sales staff have no control over the development process. The sales staff are soliciting a trust or bond from the customer over things that the sales team have no control over as in the 787 case. The sales team may say, "The 787 will not have any down time and be 99% reliable". Then comes a four month grounding due to a major engineering oversight on battery protection, and quality control from Japan's battery people. Ironically, Japan Airlines reacts out against that four month embarrassing delay, by ordering the Airbus' A-350 in a Boeing fortress.

What sales team is getting sucker punched? Boeing's! The set -up  is monumental and complete. Even though the word glitch has six letters it acts as a four letter "G" bomb at an airport security check. The  customer ask questions like, will there be more glitches? Then the sales team pleads for more snacks or a short lunch break.  Here comes the reality pitch!  Every time you move a progression forward there will be "teething pains, Okay"!

However this 787 progression goes beyond the realm of understanding with customers as they labor with its new aircraft. Software is the life blood of the aircraft, receiving a continuous transfusion of updates as it works through a myriad combination of commands, that may in certain processing flows, have an incomplete code handling a particular unplanned-for circumstance. Light goes on and aircraft is grounded until updated. Solution goes out to all 787 airplanes for module updates. This is no small task as there are millions of lines of code flying the 787 and occasionally it hiccups as a situation may cause a system fault unforeseen in programming.  A process is established for dealing with this type of glitching, which has a rapidly diminishing error event occurance, as code is corrected. The 787 redundancy and safety checks make it a sound aircraft except for pesky lights and error reports.

Back to the 777X sales team, the customer asks,"will there be any 787 like glitching on the 777X" I don't want that kind of risk before we buy?"  "Seattle, we have a problem," retorts the sales team. No fear is implored by the master showman from Seattle. The 777X is bringing forward a tried and proven technology from the 787. A price that has been paid in full during its project. The dividend  extends a solid enhancements package for the 777X,  by its demonstration of design completeness.   What glitch goes on in 787 R&D stays in R&D (its not Vagas Baby all risks adverted). The 777X is coming out clean. All technologies are proven or it won't go on the 777X. Boeing knows what works and what doesn't work. A quantum leap in aviation, greater than anything since the Wright Brothers has been accomplished by Boeing's 787. Boeing is harnessing that proven "leap" into the  777X. Remember how long  the 777-models have been flying and how well they have flown. The best mini jumbo in the world today.  Now we are taking that legacy and fusing it with the 787 advancement and proven technologies into the perfect composite/metal aircraft.

The A-380 does not have composite flight surfaces, the 777X will have composite flight surfaces like the indisputable soaring 787. The A-350 is all  composite surfaces like the 787, but does not have a core technology built in light weight electrical mechanism, it has heavy hydraulics.  The 777X is the best of both worlds, a large passenger heavy for 407 passengers, that fits into every major airport not tasking a port authority to rebuild Jet ways for only a handful of flights a day. The 777 will fit into the same spaces where current wide bodies fit. As the 787 progresses over the next year so will the 777X progress. Eliminating any questionable issue before the 777X is even built. The wing will give efficiency as will the weight loss. Combine the newer GE engine with flight management systems and the 777X will beat the competition in its XWB top end. The 777X is already an XWB without sticking that label on it. It is wider and roomier than an Airbus in that class. That is why so many 777-300 are flying today.  The A-350-1000 may be equal to the older frame, but does not approach the X series forth coming.

Glitches? There will be "no stinking glitches coming forward in the press.
Now you know why I'm not on a sales team. I'll tend to say something I can't back up as in JAL's case. Boy, are they upset!  An A-350, really? Just like Boeing's sales team biffing it on the merits of  unforeseen glitching, the JAL buyers squad, biffed it big, by taking out the girl on the corner. Uhuum, Airbus anyone? Its not a sales team failure its a Boeing failure. The twenty year leap over Airbus by Boeing will be realized by 2020. When Airbus board of directors go, "oops, the 787 is really a great airplane, we biffed it too" As the 777-9 quietly whooshes over-head on final approach in Paris!

A-350-1000, Say Good Bye At Dubai

Boeing is collecting extreme interest during the run up for the Dubai Air Show this November 17-21.. A Break out performance is in the offing for the 777-8, and 777-9 announcments. Giving a coronation of this type as being a mini Jumbo King. Already there is talk that the 777-8 or -09 will eclipse the A-350-1000 numbers in one fell swoop with an order  book exceeding 250 for the 777X. The sudden shock and awe has already hit Airbus as they await the sentencing from a collection of customers playing jurors in this case. Will it be a life sentence of being second fiddle, or an ultimate death penalty seeking many appeals from its customers?

The answer awaits in Dubai soon. All Things 787, may want to expand its Blog title to All Things Not Airbus. Here is Uresh short list of prime customers.


"Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150"


This short list could go higher with a few more surprises. The count is at 254 realistic orders with maybe a few more. At this time it threatens and exceeds the A-350-1000 three years old + order book.

Boeing is carefully working with its customer which pleases the "launch customers" base. They have engineered a platform where customers can add configuration contributions as a launch customers. That is the reward for being that premier customer. Japan Airlines  has missed an opportunity with Boeing. Feeling slighted they choose 31, A-350's, over its long standing partnership with Boeing. Sometimes a guy has to do what guy has to do. JAL went rogue and will wake up in a different world. A no Guts no Glory scenario for JAL was a big blow for Boeing, but its hay- maker at Dubai is coming back this November 17th. An exciting Airshow for all the hype that is building for the event.  I look forward to this airshow for its particular marketing strategy from Boeing, as if it will send a strong signal to Airbus. The is the capstone of these last ten years. Does Boeing really have Airbus right where they want them? An Airbus that is stuck with its under technological A-350's competing inside the Boeing sandwich of 787 and 777's? Two hundred and fifty 777-X orders with 30 more 787 orders would suggest the deed is done, as in, Airbus is trapped with billions invested on a lost leader family of aircraft.

Harsh as it may sound, that is Boeing's true Dream, An A-350 catastrophe in the Market. The door is swinging shut on Airbus. Airbus committed and went deep into its play book and may have to change strategy mid-stream losing another 5 years in the market place. I don't think they will because the "industrial momentum"  for building an "Edsel" is too strong.  Airbus is on track for late 2014 for the A-350. Boeing delivered the 787 late 2011 and should have two hundred copies flying by late 2014. Airbus' softer technological approach promises to be error free at first delivery. They took a strategy of staying within the envelope of proven technology with plastic and electronics. It backed off from all electrical architecture. It back off from Lithium Ion batteries. Those where the key 787 problematic areas. Airbus included expansive use of old and heavier hydraulics instead of Boeing's penchant for saving weight with electrical. Boeing's wing design is advanced of Airbus. The 777 is getting a really advanced wing beyond the Airbus A-350-1000 wing. It is a composite wing that folds up and fits well in the Jet Way area. The 777  is a blended technology aircraft offering the lightest weight aluminium body of new technological metallic blends. All flight surfaces will be a plastic wing having a performance envelope similar to the 787 wings. The side stick A-350 will fly like an easy ride in the park. Thumbs up for Airbus. Boeing completes the 787 like commonality circuitry with the 777. All Boeing Aircraft will fly like the 777. Or better stated, the 777 will fly like the 787, vice/verse.

The Dubai crowd have been waiting too long for this moment. Many design issues are already retired from both the the prior 777 and 787 models. Engines continue to advance every day. By the time the first 777 will fly, more GE engine types will have been upgraded through PIP programs. The final GE engine placed on the first wing of a 777 will just be the first engine placed on the wing. Several more improved types will be in the process before first delivery. The end game is Quality Management 101, "Always improving".  The 777 GE-X Engine is always improving. Any bragging right from both makers is under scored with improvement.. Therefore, a claim for efficiency is a horse race with neck and neck outcomes. The real prize is the the best airplane from an operational and service point of view. JAL lost its nerve with the 787 in this category. A 95% -97% service record was too low for JAL, and eroded all the benefits of flying efficiently by sitting on ground refusing passengers when it was fixing 787 glitches.

The price to pay of new technology quantum leap when it expected a perfect flight record. The great expectation was traded in for a dumb down 787 knock-off having a A-350 name. The no pain no gain saying flies by the window at JAL Now back to the 777 case at Dubai.. JAL won't be there as a principal, but a spectator. They will enjoy the event, but will miss out on a back stage pass. There are some many check list items to discuss at this point, but it is import to know the big picture. The outcome of this show will signal the Boeing success or failure in its Airbus strategy. If they succeed by surpassing Airbus in orders at this event.  Especially surpassing the A-350-1000, then it wins.

Michael O’Leary, Ryan Air Enough Said!

My Favorite Airline Exec is at it again. He is venturing into the 787 realm of thoughtful possibilities. Today's article feature the rational of a great airline leader building an empire with the 737 NG (not Max). I have teased and  made sarcastic remarks about his wisdom not understanding his bigger picture of empire and now have settled into admiration for his character and sensibilities. Stupid me,  he should have a movie made about his empire building. I love his swagger and success.  Today a WSJ article comes out revealing a hint of O' Leary's empire:

Ryanair’s O’Leary Backs Boeing 787 for Long-Haul Flight

Budget Airline Chief Says Order Backlog Delaying Decision on Trans-Atlantic Service

Michael O'Leary said Boeing's Dreamliner is the right aircraft for a no-frills trans-Atlantic airline as he continues to muse about launching a new long-haul service.

Etihad, Emirates, and EEggads Its A 777X Market

First pitch from the mound is the 34 "wants "from Lufthansa for 34, then comes Etihad's fast ball before the Dubai Air Show and finally its a slider in for strike three for Emirates. Will Qatar be left on deck because of the opening inning from Boeing's pitching in the next three weeks?

Blogging is a beautiful thing you can guess and write it out and watch the results. and then comment later as if you are talking to your self in a phone booth while on the beat. My phone both prognostications mixed with facts.

Lufthansa 34 777X actual commitments
Etihad        50 777X guess-work copies
Emirates   100 77X guess-work copies

Launch Guess work total 184 777x

(does not include options)

UAE's Etihad sets stage for $50 billion of jet deals from Gulf

The Reuters links always tries to temper its reporting with a European edge. They do introduce the reality of an Airbus presence at this Boeing party. 

Before Boeing even introduces the 777X at this party the attendees have been carrying on in the back board rooms for some years. This is the formal engagements party. No decent Arab power broker wants people to know whats going on until they have the spot light.

Aside from this astounding number, the Dubai meeting will hedge its bet with 25 or so A-350 for Emirates. It will be a Boeing date not an Airbus crashing the party event.

To further quote:

"If confirmed, Etihad's order could pre-empt a widely expected blockbuster deal for 100 or more 777X jets from rival Emirates Airline EMIRA.UL, which has said it may announce a large order when it hosts the Dubai Airshow next month. The deals are still under negotiation and could change in size and timing, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Boeing's European rival, Airbus (EAD.PA), is also competing for the business."

The uncertainty is,,, who gets the first step up to the microphone opportunity. Boeing keep your team in play and don't turn your back. There is another suitor hanging out. Be on time and be sharp. The late 787 and sloppy effort is still hanging in the air. A shower doesn't make people forget. I personally know this to be true.

A concluding argument would contain an unexpected event at Dubai, as in a surprise annoucement no one saw coming except the players. There could be another out of region announcement for the 777X or 787 in tandom. That may come from East of Dubai.