Project Sunrise A Boeing Necessity

Boeing is hoping Qantas Company will buy the 777-8X for its Project Sunrise selection for its Qantas Airlines. A win here for Boeing would be for bragging rights which it would relish having over Airbus. The potential deal is advertising money on the table so prices on a fleet order will plunge per unit ordered by Qantas at the end of its. project. The 777-8X is about 375 million as is but the price could plunge as this is a high profile deal for this type of widebody. Airbus, on the other hand, is modifying its A350 proposal to go the distance with passengers near 300. But Boeing has the wings and that GE9X engine.

The 777-8X is configured for about 353 seats, but distances and hours should give passengers more space and airlines more distance it requires. Both makers have formidable offers but since BA just ordered 18/24 777Xs the emotional momentum has shifted to Boeing's winning the Project Sunrise offering.

The 777-8x will drop off about 75 passenger seats, down to a sensible 275 passenger "load". It will have the folding 235-foot wing which Airbus will not match unless it wants its A350-1000 to fit into abandoned A-380 terminal slots found in about 60 airports around the world. The 777X wing will fit anywhere the 787 flies. Qantas is keen on Airbus at this time just for pricing advantages over Boeing's offer. Remember the advertising account and what a Boeing 777X selection would do for future sales?

Price will drop to about 200 million per unit making Alan Joyce a little more comfortable with big ideas backed by investors. The next question is how many orders. That discussing has already happened with the two big makers in the running. Nothing less than 20 units ordered would do for any manufacturer. I would guess the orders would flow as follows for the winner. Qantas must order 20 with a 20 option in place for ten years. Or in other words about 17 billion at list prices before discounts.

Aviation wars are a funny business and it's hard to predict how things will work out for any maker. But Boeing is more able to drop price than Airbus. It's more able to morph the 777-8X into a globe trotter as it will have slightly more range than the A-350-1000 configured for Project Sunrise. Boeing knows Alan Joyce wants 300 seats for this venture but "close" to 300 seats is what either maker will offer. A Boeing deal will be made because Boeing has the Wings and the Engines. Both makers can do the internal amenities for passengers, including a boudoir for most. Boeing can and will go 9,000 miles easily where Airbus will have to trick out an offering with more fuel and fewer seats to make that range.

Airbus will have to go 250 seats with its A-350-1000 and some extra fuel tanks to boot. Allan Joyce may think 250 seats is not profitable and what he had in mind. He wants those 300 seats! Ticket prices need to fall to fill 300 seats to go 9,000 miles each time. Going from Sydney Australia to London, westward, against the wind on most days is difficult and dangerous when the weather changes mid-flight. The aircraft may have to fly around a bit and burn more fuel and serve more amenities when it stays aloft for 21 hours instead of 20 hours. Egads!

The time on board will necessitate space and kiosks for the passengers and crews as well. People need to move around, sleep and browse about the cabin for 20 hours of duration. A seat can only stay so long at the movies or on the web. The amenity offering will be an interesting proposition most air travel people only think of after 12 hours in the air. Sleep is one part of that equation as is seat time. The open variable is plan B. Browsing the cabin.

British Airways Buys Boeing 777X Big

Instead of Airbus turning the tables on Boeing, the table turned on Airbus as BA choose the 777-9X  in this go-round of orders. The BA orders righted the 777X program for an on-course production flow as now Boeing will commit more to the 777X program and more risk can be taken with its NMA announcement coming in 2019. The order basic involves 34 747 retirements by 2022.

British Airways Score Card:

• (-34), 747 retired by 2022.
• 18, A350-1000 booked with delivery beginning in 2019
• 18, 7779x booked with starting delivery in 2020
• 24, 7779X Optioned for after 2022

Net growth of 26 WB frames

The retiring of the 747 fleet nets a fleet increase

Total British Airways value of Boeing's 777X aircraft at list price 18.5 billion including firm and optioned aircraft for 42 units.

BA has already in the fleet or ordered WBs per below chart.

Wikipedia BA Fleet Chart

                                      -1st2B PEc  Ec  Total

Boeing 777-200	3	—	17	48	24	127	216	To be replaced by 777-300ER[138][139]
Boeing 777-200ER	43	—	14	48	40	124	226[140]
			—	48	24	203	275
			—	32	52	252	336[141]
Boeing 777-300ER	12	3[142]	14	56	44	185	299
Boeing 787-8	12	—	—	35	25	154	214
Boeing 787-9	18	—	8	42	39	127	216
Boeing 787-10	—	12[143]	TBA

Just a quick summary of the BA fleet size concening Boeing product. It could replace many of its 777-200ERs with 777X currently from the MOU (24 LOI). Knowing this order will take about 5 years to complete 18 777X's and if the 777X meets and exceeds expectation in service Boeing could expect another 50 of its 777X to be ordered by 2025 for a complete fleet renewal of its total 777 classic version 777's.

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Notes:

May 2016 Viet Jet ordered 100 Max 200's

*February 2019 Viet Jet Ordered 80 737 Max 10s 
                                                20 737 Max 8s
*Bamboo Air                             10 787-9s (10 787 + 25 Max in Talks/Options)
                              Total Today:110 Booked 

Vietnam has firmed 210 (Viet Jet 100 (2016) +100 (2019) Bamboo 10 787-9s) Boeing aircraft with option and intents remaining for a growing industry in the region with Bamboo Airways yet to firm its single-aisle equipment needs.

2/28/2019 who wins the BA order bid 777X or the A350-1000? Only hours away for the answer.

Randy Tinseth On Airshow Approach

Here is a break for Boeing-o-philes. A Randy Tinseth looks at Boeing Thinking.

2018 Dubai Airshow

Farewell A-380 You Are Changing The Market On Departure

When the A-380 is last produced in 2021 it will affect the market significantly by making Twin Engine behemoths, the new aviation rock stars. Enter the 777X and the A-350-1000 for which Airbus contemplates a 777X killer called an A-350-2000. The 2000 lineage from Airbus would indicate plus 400 seats but how will it match what Boeing is trying with its 777Xs?

1. Starting with Boeing's folding wing, Airbus won't match it
2. Enlarging A-350 windows will be done in some other shape
3. Fixing 400 plus seats Airbus will accomplish
4. Flying lighter than the 777X frame is an Airbus accomplishment
5. Having seat/mile costs the lowest is a Boeing win.
6. Boeing has the Engine GE9X, Rolls just dreams about it.
7. Boeing 777X program timing is on the cusp of the A-380 demise
8. Pricing of both the 777X and A-350-2000 is a push
9. The market has room for just one Aircraft maker for the size of the airplane class
10. Boeing owns the pole position in this race and the 777X becomes the industry standard.

The 7478F and A-380 are under the microscope where the 7478F remains to have a freight market sewed up. It will be built for the next 20 years as a stablemate with the 777-8XF or 9XF going forward much like the 767 has done over the last 10 years. The A-380 is basically done by 2021 where Airbus will unleash resources to counter Boeing's effort with new airframe offerings.

Bamboo Bang For Buck Is 787 For Ten

Bamboo just signed for 10 more 787's while President Trump viewed on during his summit visit to the Far East with NK Leaders. The Vietnam based airline already has 20  787 on firm orders and this 10 just signed will increase the Boeing fold to 30 787's.

"The carrier, which is owned by property and leisure company FLC Group and made its first flights in January, placed a provisional order last year for 20 Boeing 787 widebody jets worth $5.6 billion at list prices." is reported.

The word provisional sticks out the most as Bamboo seems it has not firmed the first 20 at this time. However, it firmed 10 with the Trump visit and is new and separate from the 20 it provisioned last year. This indicates Boeing and Bamboo have not yet settled on a price for 20 but Bamboo is still intending on those first 20 it had committed to buy.

In all, Bamboo is looking for the lowest price per plane as it already has higher priced A350's in its fleet. The 787 will cover the same market the A-350 covers. If Bamboo's 20 787 are firmed in 2019 then Bamboo will have added 30 787's to Boeing's bookings.

Pre and Post Lion Air Crash Boeing 737 Max Sales

The months August, September, and October saw Boeing book 132 sales of its Max to Customers. The post-Lion Air crash three months accumulated 266 737 Orders. President Trump will sign for 100 Viet Jets orders this month in a diplomatic gesture to Vietnam. January saw 28 737's signed, including military 737's and unidentified. The year 2019 has been a continuation of Boeing's sales run in the summary. The Lion Air 737 Max crash killing 189 has not dampened Boeing's sales momentum for its 737 Max line of aircraft. ANA is buying 20 Max with the other 100 mentioned it brings the total Max ordered since the October  2018, accident to 386 Max ordered.

The argument continues between Boeing and the accident investigators what the appropriate measure Boeing should take when assisting on fixing how this type of accident may never happen again. To explain what happened at this time is premature until the final accident report is issued. It's clear the accident occurred from a series of misunderstandings from the pilot with his 737 Max in distress. The plane nosed into the ocean, going full throttle killing everyone. It's complicated to cipher what went wrong these many months later. However, procurement for single-aisle Max has not slowed, so the reasoning continues as does the buying. Boeing is fixing its instruction to pilots and making software changes promising the 737 Max was safe to fly in the first place but these adjustments will make it more secure to pilots unfamiliar with the Max after the NG version in service.

Gleaning The 777X To-do Field

Gleaning is a long used biblical word. Taking what's left over after the harvest. The technology harvest installed the 777X first flight airplane. Gleaning takes the time to pick up every loose grain found in the field. That is what happens to the 777X until sometime in March when First Flight rolls out the factory doors. Dozens of people with clipboards and testers in hand are checking every rivet, bolt, or electrical panel. Technicians in other rooms are even plugged into the big jet for running its software in a proforma attitude checking to see if any code does not perform in a situational awareness test of what if's.

Suppose if there is a crosswind of 50,  what flap will do what? Now you get it, its mind boggling how much Boeing has to do before first flying copy rolls out.  This is no 787 rollout on 7-7-07. It's not a plastic hulk for photo ops. This example is meant to fly soon after its rollout. Engines are ready and the tires on this rollout will be airborne soon after the cupcakes are eaten by those in attendance.

Therefore, my impatience is calmed, knowing people are pulling over-time, in order for its first flight is the goal by late next month. Sometime in 2020, Lufthansa will demonstrate to its customer what a deal they made buying the first 777-9 ticket. The oohs and awes will sell more of the same next time launched. The take-off with the GE-9's will warmly hum in the cabin and soon the most disturbing sound is someone snoring. "Wake that passenger, I want to hear the crinkling of my first 777-9 candy wrapper" goes the child in me.

Therefore my inpatients are only mitigated by countless web browsing sessions under the heading of 777X.

Viet Jet 2018 Deal Confuses Trump's visit

Last year at Farnborough there was an MOU deal with Viet Jet for 100 737 Max for 13 billion US. However, some reported Boeing reported this on its unidentified order book. There were 125 Max booked on December 24,2018 as those unidentified isn't a Farnborough date nor 100 units leaving it to booking 125 737 jets on one date late in December of 2018. The question arises who did Boeing book for 125 737 Max on December 24, 2018, as unidentified? Donald Trump is going to Vietnam to talk to Kim Jung Un of North Korea fame and sign a deal for 100 Viet Jets at the same time which doesn't look at all like the mystery of 125 737's on December  24, 2018, found on Boeing's book.

So going forward it seems like Boeing should add 100 Viet Jet's MOU coming from 2018 to Boeing's 2019 book for 20 737-Max 8 and 80 737 Max 10's which doesn't align well with Airbus' vision for progress in the market place. If Boeing already did book those orders in late December 2018, as unidentified, then the MOU from Viet Jet has turned into a firm order just a few months ago. Its something to watch for on Boeing's book after Trump's visit. Boeing could be amassing an early lead over Airbus for orders in 2019. Single-aisle orders do matter as Boeing beat Airbus last year with the single-aisle order class numbers.

An Airbus A321XLR decision Is What Boeing Wants

If Airbus does announce the A321XLR shortly that is exactly what Boeing wanted in it's overarching strategy. An Airbus single-aisle airplane against an NMA dual aisle Boeing. Some say an A321XLR will cause Boeing to lose the gap competition. The jury still is out on that particular notion. Some say Boeing must reduce its 797 build costs which are now holding Boeing back. The sunk cost on such an NMA has already been spent and will not be included with the price of a Boeing NMA.

Boeing is going big or not at all in the current situation. "Big", being something new and something affordable in a new niche. The A321XLR can do this but the Boeing proposal far outclasses the Airbus ideas. The 797 will be dual aisle with big windows for all. It will fly 5,000 miles comfortably at seven seats across. The A321XLR will stretch longer at 6 seats across. The A321XLR may take its energy forward it has gained in the market place during the last ten years, but the 797 will overcome that energy with an all-new offering for the same cost of the A321XLR. Time has come to lay down the cards that are held. However, Airbus will lay down its hand first and that is the game Boeing is playing since it holds a card Airbus doesn't have.