Seeking Alphas Part II the 777-8X Beats the A350-1000 Too

Earlier on December 14, 2014 I laid out the Seeking Alpha thesis on the A-350 where it won't cut it against the 777X members either in load with the 777X-9 or in Range in the 777X-8 Here is the Not forgotten but long waiting part two from:

Dhierin Bechai, Aviation Investor's Blog (198 clicks)

Long only, airlines, industrials, aerospace

The 777-8X Goes Long.

Why Boeing Does Not Need To Worry About A Possible Airbus A350-1100

Dec. 19, 2014 4:04 AM ET  |  7 comments  |  About: The Boeing Company (BA), Includes: EADSF, EADSY

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Summary

• Stretched version of the Airbus A350-1000 will not be able to efficiently compete with 777X.
• Airlines favour 777-9X over Airbus A350-1000.
• Boeing 777-8X is unreachable ultra-long range aircraft.

In my previous articles I compared the Airbus [(OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY)] A350-1000 with the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 777X and concluded that the 777X is the better and more efficient aircraft.

When the Airbus A350-1000 will enter service it will probably be the most efficient aircraft in the skies.

Boeing's reply to the Airbus A350-1000 came in the form of the Boeing 777X, and Airbus does not seem to have an answer to that.

In order to compete with the Boeing 777X, Airbus might decide to bring the Airbus A350-1100, a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000. Airbus stated that its first priority is to optimize the Airbus A350-1000 and after that look at possible stretched version of the Airbus A350.

In this article I will explain why the Airbus A350-1100 will not change anything for the success Airbus A350 family.

First of all it is important to look at how the A350-1000 and Boeing 777-8X are placed in the payload-range diagram:

Figure 1: Payload-range diagram Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777X (Source: Dhierin-Perkash Bechai)

When looking at the payload-range diagram it is important to recognize the differences.

Differences Boeing 777-9X and Airbus A350-1000: The Boeing 777-9X transports up to 50 passengers more and has a range that is about 200 nm greater.

Differences Boeing 777-8X and Airbus A350-1000: The Boeing 777-8X transports up to 3 passengers more and has a range that is about 1300 nm greater.

Looking at the differences it can be concluded that the Airbus A350-1000 is being squeezed by the members of the Boeing 777X.

What a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000 means:

• Higher capacity
• Lower range
• Added structural weight

In order to match the capacity of Boeing 777-9X, Airbus can decide to stretch the airframe. The addition of structural weight (for the added frames and sizing needed for the wings) as well as increase in payload will considerably decrease the range of a possible Airbus A350-1100.

In order to match the range of the Boeing 777-8X, Airbus might decide to seat slightly less passengers in the Airbus A350-1000 and try to increase fuel capacity. Probably a stretch is needed to increase space for fuel tanks which basically means that Airbus cannot compete with the Boeing 777-8X.

So a stretched version only is able to compete with the Boeing 777-9X in terms of capacity, but will lack the range capability of the Boeing 777-9X. The Trent XWB engines are probably maxed out, and there is very little to squeeze out of it to increase range.

So even if Airbus comes up with the Airbus A350-1100 it will not be able to compete with the upcoming Boeing 777X, a stretch of an already stretched aircraft simply will not be as efficient.

What could be a possibility is stretching the airframe to increase capacity and place a significantly more efficient engine on the Airbus A350 to increase the range.

Order numbers also show that the Boeing 777X is favored over the Airbus A350-1000:

Table 1: Order numbers medium wide body members

As can be seen few airlines are buying the Boeing 777-8X that will be the ultra-long range leader, but airlines are favoring the Boeing 777-9X that has higher capacity over the Airbus A350-1000.

It can be concluded that with the Airbus A350 Airbus did not plan ahead but merely came up with a product to compete with the current 777 product line that is already a decade old.

One can also question the strength of the A350 as an aircraft family:

• The Airbus A350-800 probably will be canned (existing orders will be converted to orders for the A350-900 or the A330neo).
• The Airbus A350-1000 has not received any orders in a year now
• Since the launch of the Boeing 777X, Airbus only received 3 orders for the Airbus A350-1000
• Only the Airbus A350-900 has decent order numbers and inflow

Conclusion

Airbus certainly failed in predicting or anticipating future competitors on the market. They came up with the Airbus A350, which is a perfect competitor for the current 777 but cannot compete with the Boeing 777X. The Airbus A350 is too small to compete with the upcoming Boeing counterparts. This might mean that Boeing will be leading the lucrative medium-wide-body sector.

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Paris Tuesday 6-16- 2016 (II)

Day Two brings on the good, the bad, and the ugly. The "Single Aisle Jamboree" was kicked off in fine fashion as the rumored 100 Max order dropped from the fickle order tree into Boeing's basket.

The Bad was sluggish sales pace of both airplane makers as they had been grooming this event into what now appears to be a world glut of backlog, which has drained the financial swamp losing any incentives of having super large orders. However, Bad Boy Boeing capped the event with one hundred 737 Max, I assume in the -7,-8,and -9 classes. (See Below Chart). I am guessing day one is for premium customers, day two is for Single Aisle and Day three is for wide-body show surprises.

Ugly: Aeroflot cancels 22 787, per Putin insatiable appetite for "leg of lame" shoved off the plate. Reason given. "The 787 no longer fits our growth plans". Russian translation, "Low oil prices in Russia are really hurting" having any airplane purchases, Plus Putin is angry!

Note options usually follows-on with the main purchase documents, on the same day ordered at shows. However, options can appear later on in negotiations after an initial purchase is made.

Data from Various news reports and All Things 787 summary.

Paris-Monday-Day One (I)

What more is there to say. The 787-9 did its thing and peopled said "awe/ahhh" in unison.

Straight from someones accounting, I stole this information:
Ka-Ching goes the cash register!!! Fries included.

79 signed-on so far
Rumors... Boeing has a fish-on, for 100 Max. Its maybe, the talk of the show, in a nut shell for 10.7 billion.

However, Its only Monday, a day for self-importance and new fashions at the show.

The Paris Shuffle Is About To Start

The big dance may not have an order book gloat this year, but it will have intrigue that will shape the fortunes of many over the next few years. Boeing is arranging for more strategic wide body sales for its 787-10. Airbus is working its charm with its own A-350 couple, which is not yet a real family, as it tries for more A-350-1000's. The battle of the 10's is in the back room at Paris. By fall announcements will come for the the winner of this battle at Dubai. Paris is just a love affair gone torrid in 2015. No announced billions and billions for the consuming public, but a few raised eye brows will be forth coming as the whispers flood the flight-line.  Who did what to whom?

The Paris affair is captivating without a full story disclosed. Even the A-400 scandal dares shows up. All are hoping it won't crash on someones pavilion or static display. The usual suspects are already there. China's 777-300-ER, Vietnam's Air 787-9, and the Qatar Five Quintet will sing over Paris in A-350 5/5 time. The show will be great, but the back room will have greater consequence remaining unannounced, and in scandalous fashion.

Its a great press moment as they sell more speculative articles than news articles on a given day. News has become speculation. Its the "New Black" in journalism. Yellow is no longer interesting at the Paris dance-off. Airbus strategy is to look busy flying and flying over Paris, back and forth with the quintet. Boeing seeks to stun and make conversation with these few words, "Did You See That?!"

The 787-9 stood on its tail once more, and everyone standing got sick and yelled out just the same. "Oh! Awe!,The 787 rocks! It doesn't need no stinking five to fly-by. It just rocks!"

Hype, mystery, and scandal makes the show in 2015. Significant orders will come before the end of the year and after the show. Thrust is made for Emirates, and price is leveraged at the show for those desperate for stealing a headline. The duopoly paid to much good money to go home without bragging about whose best. After-all, isn't that what Paris is for, bragging about yourself no matter what common sense tells the audience. A little bit huckster and a little bit showman, is Paris Air Show. The loose change of orders will have to do.

Back to the backroom. I'll raise you 100 wide-bodies playing the queen of hearts "thrusting" on the Airbus duopoly of clubs, by Boeing. I'll see you and raise it to the"Max" bet. "Oh for Dubai it can't come fast enough for the big orders when "they" go all-in."

After All Its An Air Show and Boeing Aims to Show

The stunning practice video of Vietnam's Airlines 787-9 has swept up the internet before the "Show" in Paris even started. The attempted showmanship of Qatar's five A-350 fly-over is already upstaged with the Vietnam Airline 787-9 Moses Lake practice run. Doing a wide-body tail stand off the runway, before even reaching the halfway point down its total runway length is even used. See at what Point the 787 stands up, and notice how much runway remains as it goes vertical in the video. The remarkable talking points have over-whelmed the aviation world with this Youtube segment made available by Boeing (See below-last frame). Qatar's fly-by five will only seem less interesting in Paris as the crowd now expects the Vietnam Airlines to stand on its tail once more before the whole of the Paris Show.

Frank Sinatra Is On Board As Chairman Singing Fly-Me -To-The-Moon.

Famous 787-9 Video with Vietnam Airlines Future Equipment

Notice where runway ends and 787-9 Takes-off near halfway point and climbs

JUST WATCH Vietnam's Airline 787-9 Pre Paris Big Show

"Airways" is A recommended Read Today on The Maturity of The 787

It is not often you learn so much about an airplane but today we have airways summary on the 787 performance of the 787 from its start until now. Take your time link up and read during a break. Know that the 787 is here to stay, in fine form.

Airways June 10, 2015

"The Dreamliner is reaching its maturity Since its EIS, the 787 has logged more than 257,000 flights and 568 million revenue miles, transported 48 million passengers and operated more than 500 flights a day for 31 airline customers thus far. On average, Dreamliners fly 12 hours a day and it is estimated that 2.1 billion pounds of fuel have been saved so far, together with a dispatch reliability finally reaching more than 99 percent after well-publicized teething pains.

Since its EIS, the 787 has logged more than 257,000 flights and 568 million revenue miles, transported 48 million passengers and operated more than 500 flights a day for 31 airline customers thus far. On average, Dreamliners fly 12 hours a day and it is estimated that 2.1 billion pounds of fuel have been saved so far, together with a dispatch reliability finally reaching more than 99 percent after well-publicized teething pains."

Winging It:

The Boeing performance plateau has more to go before reaching its peak. The initial innovation pit Boeing has conceived from the 787 beginnings is like yeast on the bread dough. Many new ideas are building the next 777X  and the Max from its initial incubation period during the 787 program. The "should we do this mentality" is replaced with confidence of "We need to do this". Laminar flow technology as mentioned earlier in Winging It, is a need to do this statement flying over Airbus. The 68" CFM Max engine compared with the Airbus 78" CFM will out perform its engine mate when slung under the low riding taxi of the  Max 737. Weight is the true final frontier in aviation development. Every pound added is a penalty for air travel. From luggage bins to bathrooms pounds come off and passenger are added. 

Its time to explore luggage-less options in aviation and passenger weight per ticket purchase. For one a passenger may have the opportunity to before pack with a destination. The thought is to go on the jet as is, and order online rented clothing before departure having it delivered at your hotel before you even land. The hassle of packing, toting and paying luggage handling is gone. Go online and rent suits, dresses, and under clothes online before you leave. They will be in your motel room before you arrive at the motel. No tips needed at the airports. You choose from the electronic catalog    

787-10's is Whats For Ordering

Emirates wants 100 or more stout wide bodies. It already has a hankering for Boeing Product. It also cancelled Airbus leaving 70 A-350 exactly in its dream with a monstrous  787 chasing it aspirations away. Emirates is pondering both airline makers for the next giant order. So much is on the line for both manufacturers. One loves the smack talk with an order of this magnitude. Airbus would catch Boeing if it took in an order for 100 for the A-350-900. It would crow all the way to Farnsborough Air Show and back. Boeing would close its case on new wide-body once and for all, keeping its European rival deeply sadden over the order loss.

The question is asked who will get the nod. Emirates wants more thrust out of the Boeing 787-10. How much more, it is not said? It would require a new engine configuration from either GE or Rolls to meet its requirements, and coast billions and some time for Boeing to do so. It can be done but would delay the program in time of maybe another year or two. Emirates could wait for either builder a little while, as that wait would open up the order book causing a continuous flow for Emirates delivery schedule. It doesn't have to wait for Airbus for the thrust improvement because its already there at Emirates level of thrust requirement. Hot weather robs thrust performance in the desert regions and Emirates needs the thrust on its larger airplanes obviously. Boeing knows this as well, but has committed to optimizing thrust range for its 787-10 less than what Emirates prefers.

The A-350-9 maybe too much of an aircraft for Emirates as the Airbus A-350 prefers spanning the globe while optimizing its design and efficiency. The 787-10 was designed for the middle length routes as it covers 90% of the worlds long routes. It sounds intriguing for Emirates, but it comes back to Boeing's thrust for its heavy aircraft in the desert.

Boeing, for a hundred wide-bodies will do most anything for the sale. Even order up a new engine configured for greater thrust requirements. It's just plain hot in the middle east, and thrust is on order. However, Emirates is also going North with new routes across Europe, and other regions which is not temperamental as the desert sun. The nominal 787-10 could serve those regions without thrust enhancements while avoiding high density desert airports.

I would expect Boeing will address engine builders over the thrust issue in earnest and quickly. I also expect the three year lead time will give Boeing some solutions by 2018, when the first 787-10's start delivery with its other customers.

In all, Boeing has the capability of selling 100 787-10's with an engine redesign developing more thrust in a "Just for Emirates" power plant, and for any other customer needing the thrust required engine flying along the equator using a 787-10. Some programs only start with 100 orders to begin with and a 787-10 desert burner would be a worthy project, and completed in under three years. GE has the means as well as Rolls, who want a piece of this action. Adding more thrust is not a Boeing lost leader in the over-all scheme of things. Not doing anything for a tempting order would be a big Boeing loss.

"Before Paris" An Epic Movie Of The Real Show.

Posturing, posing and primping in front of the mirror is the Paris Air Show, even before it even happens.

Air Manufacturing sometime poses its order book and postures any calamity before the big event.
Articles about the A-380 order book slump shows up, and orders are missing from Boeing's website from a China order on single aisle 737's. Boeing claims its up to the customer to announce its order. Airbus claims its customers who are in love with the show, and save the pomp and ceremony demonstration for the show.

The reader of such events get lost in the hyperbole and couched information streams, which is spewing forth, as if from some kind of aviation lava fountain in a cheap motel. The plot thickens as the show draws near. Can Boeing top the airshow again with the Vietnam Airlines 787-9 aerial display?

The Last Big Show in 2014 (Farnborough) the test 787-9 stood on its tail during take-off. It flew around waging its wings at the crowd as if it where a fighter jet from the US AF Blue Angels. This movie plot comes from the pre-show time frame, reminds me of the Movie "State Fair 1946-62" or "Giant, 1956". What kind of drama explodes before the Paris Air show. It must compete and surpass having a tense Texas ranch reunion movie with lots of oil spewing out of control.

The five Qatar A-350's flying in formation supersedes the 200 Japanese style lanterns hung on fifty bicycle handle bars at Pollyanna's Community Bazaar as shown in the Disney Movie.

Hollywood Cheese is Bigger Than Paris Cheese Watch Giant in the trailer with Rock Hudson and Elizabeth Taylor

Giant Cheese Trailer

State Fair Has Animals and a Airplane Ride

Ether way I can't wait for the actual Paris Airshow posturing posing and primping before the cameras.

What will they say? What will they announce after shaping the order book for announcements? It's an effort to appear better off than the last Paris extravaganza two years ago and far better form than its main competitor in aviation salesmanship . Is it more carnival than circus? The pre-show story suggest yes it is that very thing, a Giant French made carnival. Enjoy Paris everyone for the hype alone. After all its Paris and not Texas.

Giant Food Is On Display With This Clip: No A-380 in Background sorry :(

Bidness ETC Quote

"Boeing is confident that it will book several hundred orders in the upcoming Paris Air Show, scheduled between June 15-21. Earlier this week, it was reported that the company will showcase some its main commercial aircraft including 787-9 Dreamliner, which will then be delivered to Alaska Air Group, Inc.(NYSE:ALK)."