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Saturday, October 4, 2014

"The Group"

"The group will add 100 Boeing 787 to its fleet at the end of 2015 and the first Airbus A350 in 2018. The aircraft will be equipped with completely new cabins."

Once again this statement pops out without explanation, "a hundred whole 787's at the end of 2015"? 

This quote comes from:


I keep pondering, what does Air France-KLM Group means by that quote, when they only ordered 25-787-9's with an option for 25 more, equaling fifty?

My Math is either in error, or the writers of the last two articles where this reference has appeared are "California Dreaming". It maybe due to a combined order with Airbus where the confusion lays. On the same day they (The Group) announced the Boeing purchase of 25/25, where they also announced an A-350 order for 25/35 starting in 2018(purchase/Options).

Maybe somebody, anybody, can help me here if the Group really did order 100 787 starting with delivery in 2015? 

Friday, October 3, 2014

Boeing's Virtual Build And Boeing's Pilots

One thing that Boeing has learned through the 787-8 experience is how its gained a reliance on computer models with the correct information inputs into its virtual system. New flight laws keep occurring from real time testing on the flight line. When Boeing started with the 787-8 it had to use metal aircraft data for the virtual design center information base, since it only  had data from flying examples in the metal world. The 787-8 took about 3,000 hrs of flight time of testing, before the good to go signal. Then the 787-9 took about 1,500 hours before saying we have it modeled in the virtual system and with the practical mode of flying. Lesson learned in the virtual mode were updated on its design centers computers from the dash 8 to the dash nine. Assumptions made that worked remained and assumption that didn't work were expunged off the data modeling. Those were replaced with actual 787-9 data.

Next Aircraft  up is the 787-10 with a longer stretch than the 787-9. Throw another barrel on the fire. One so long that it can't be transported to Everett by the Dream Lifter, so it will be built and remain in Charleston, SC until assembly time.

One out-growth from the 787-8 project is the reliance on the computer model, even when guessing a little. The modeling tells the engineers that close computer results gets it off the ground, and actual flying updates are added to the data, where it provides a pathway on how to fine tune the aircraft with new options. It is a far more complete and efficient way of making complex aircraft over the old trial and error method of test pilots flying, and later having conversations on the flight line. Test pilots still require a rigorous shake down of flying aircraft having immense flying skills. However, those flight line conversations with the engineers are much shorter as a bank of computer servers relay data on what happens during flight maneuvering. How the structure flexes, how  the lifting surfaces react and any other in flight characteristics that form anomalies. These results of the test are discovered through duration flying where it goes to the computers and are forwarded to the next model up. The human element remains important as pilot behavioral input, reactions, and expectations are needed for the model. "Human input" to the project must be part of the virtual model!

The 787-9 just did a remarkable performance of gaining flight status after 1,500 hundred hours. Thanks to the 787-8 lessons, and correcting "wrongly assumed designed points" in the virtual model. It is best said that 90%  of the model was spot on for the 787-8, and 98% of the 787-9 was spot on from the modeling attributes. The Dash Ten should come in 98.5 to 99%  spot on from comparing modeling to real flight tests, completely eliminating the trial and error curve entirely, even as the 787-8 had already accomplished.

In spite of all the white noise, the 787 project has created from press reporting. The big news is found indoors at the Boeing design center, where it will pull together its 777X model, A computer design with all the lessons learned, since WWII for its 777X flying wings. Boeing will know before the 777X takes off for its first flight, what it will do. The test pilots will confirm the model and offer valuable advice for making the aircraft a pilot's aircraft. That is the import part of selling it into the future, what the pilot has to say.  I remember how Mike Carriker came off the first 787-8. He was was an engineering hero. His eyes were lit up like an eight year old boy at Christmas with his first airplane toy. The thing flew just like it did in the lab. It was the beginning of something new for Boeing. The virtual model actually flies like "we imputed the information into the computer". The computer model removes 98% of trial and error flight testing.

Wind tunnels are important confirmation and refinement points in design. Pilots are for validation for flight characteristics and the human interface advancements. Mike, being both an accomplished pilot and engineer melded his professional expertise in both the design center and flight line.They are not just there to come back alive as found in the 1950-70's. They are important for the human interface of the machine for all its future pilots.

The 787-8 was five years extra in coming for the engineers, but that effort would have taken 20 years using 1970's technology or not at all. The 787 did a hole-in-one shot and did not lay-up short for a chip shot and a put. Mike Carriker is both an engineer and master pilot where he spent time  both indoors at the design center, and on the the flight line. As most Boeing Test pilots now have that dual role. It's the only way to get the virtual world correct. Now bring on the 777X and the 787-10!

Thursday, October 2, 2014

5+2=7(737), or numbered as 52 or times Its Own Numbers =10 more a month

It was a fine year to be born in 1952. My lucky number, then Boeing announces it will build 52, 737's a month going forward 4 years ahead of myself. Numbers are an important thing for bean counters, as I have served in that capacity as well. 52 X's 12 = 624 Max and NG's a YEAR. Everybody knew it was coming. Workers told their children to get a machinist skill in the Renton, Wa area, several years back. There is a future right here in Renton Town. I once went to trade school in Renton and know the clamor going on way past the Job service doors. Its called getting ready for the next great push in aviation. Young folks, get your google on, and learn more technology. You have a Job coming near your rainforest soon. Or move to the plains and join "Spirit". Good Move/!

So here is the low down on the low down. I doing this feature on the cheap and will link you to the news.

Boeing To Raise 737 Production Again By 2018


"Boeing has announced plans to raise output of 737s beyond its current production plans, saying global demand for new aircraft justifies it.
The move to build 52 737s a month in 2018, from 42 currently, while widely expected, shows Boeing's confidence that its factory and its network of suppliers can step up to the rate for Boeing's single-aisle jet.
The increase will push production of 737s to 624 a year in 2018, almost matching the 648 the company delivered last year across all four of its main models."
While many suppliers will be able to meet the higher rate, they fear the increase won't last more than a couple of years, not long enough to justify the costs of increasing their capacity, said Ken Herbert, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity who recently surveyed about 45 companies that supply Boeing.
"It is not ideal from a supplier standpoint because of the capital investment required and the negative financial implications of then taking rates down," he said. "This significantly increases the risk, in the eyes of the suppliers."
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Suppliers are concerned this is an airplane building bubble number, and are hesitant to increase its own supply chain capabilities just to have Boeing soften the supply chain quantities only a few years after implementing the production increase.
Point well taken.

Boeing laid the groundwork with its Asia conference last month when it said Asia will need about 6,012 new aircraft over the next 20 years. Most of those will be single aisle types. The second key point, is that Randy Tinseth was only speaking about Asia, and not the world market in total. To know the world forecast of that market is key for the supplier. Boeing is betting on a rush of single Aisle sales in the next five years as airline place holders, for timely deliveries for the world wide demand. Asia is just getting into the order fracas sooner rather than later. Somebody will have to make those parts for either Boeing or Airbus. This next bubble will be one with duration. Those who blink will be unprepared in the supply chain. Here are a few Pondering Points:
  • World demand is not exclusive to Boeing
  • The order rush has not fully yet begun
  • The current rush, is for place holding for fleet renewals, and not fleet increases.
  • Fleet Increase Orders are now on the horizon ready to pad the order book.
  • Supplier Expansion Risk is ready for Reward during this next decade.  

Boeing is expecting or is tendering new orders for the Max in 2015, and has a certain expectation for the next four years for what its going to do in the single aisle market. It too, does not want to increase capacity by 20% if it doesn't need to do so. Suppliers should, after careful review, increase capacity for its Boeing customer, as it realizes it could gain advantages for or with both mega builders in Europe and the US.
In conclusion, the suppliers are watching both the NEO and Max once it flies in tests, then they will know how they will expand, and for whom they will be expanding.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Sikorsky Raider Day October 2, 2014

Game on tomorrow as Sikorsky launches its first out the door Raider S-97 October 2, 2014. Here is the Link:








The shape of things to come. I am excited for our military pilots and crews. Hoorah!

3rd Quarter Boeing Bank Notations Are In: (Updated)

Deliveries are in for the third quarter 2014 of which Boeing has received cash money on each 787 provided, totaling 31 copies for the 3rd quarter. Several items of note are provided below from production values: One unit was moved out of September into October resulting in a final tally for 10 September 787's delivered, and reducing the moving average for the quarter to 10.33 units per month from 10.67 for the three months averaged per +-30 days.

Quarterly Production Notes:
  • 31 787's (including Four 787-9's)
  • 27 787-8's
  •   4 787-9's

Summary notes: That Boeing, inspite of it's often reported work slowdowns, and  plant changes due to its upgrades installed within aircraft, they have maintained Ten A Month Delivery over the last two quarters. That's right six months straight where they are averaging over Ten A Month, the listed/stated goal. Boeing is not out of the woods yet, but it is coming down the home stretch in a solid position with the lead.

Goal +/-                          07/2014    08/2014          Projecting      September (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries              *8              **13               10            10                           -3
3 M-M-avg                      11.33           12.33            10            10.33                  + .33
Production Goal                10               10                 10           10                             0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -1.33            +2.33                   -. 0          + .33      /Target           >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                            PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

DDG 1000 90% Complete With Rolls Royce Turbines Light Off



Pictured above is one of two Rolls Royce gas turbines in preparation to "Light Off", a term used by the Navy when activating it for the first time with its turbine power on the DDG 1000 destroyer. The twin turbines plus twin auxiliary motors could produce enough electricity for 10,000 homes. It will do more than this with it on board. 30+ NM/Hr speed, a potential-Rail Gun, Radar/Sonar, Computers and shipboard electric razors.

Similar to The All Electric 787 systems, in that a Jet engine powers its systems. All Electrical 787 actuators, move flight surfaces and any other electric/electronic dependent systems.

The DDG 1000 has twin screws powered by the latest in  electrical motors. Diesel/Electric pairings have been with the railroad for almost a century. Those technology advances refined and advanced are passed on to this class of destroyer.

Press Quotes below  from:

"Marine Log"


"Neil Pickard, Rolls-Royce, Program Executive said: "On behalf of the entire DDG 1000 program team, I am very pleased to confirm the successful light-off of the first Rolls-Royce MT30 main turbine generator set this week. The accomplishment of this important milestone is significant as it enables us to progress with more comprehensive and self-sufficient testing of the ship's Integrated Power System (IPS) over the weeks and months ahead."
The IPS on the DDG 1000 generates all the electrical power required for main propulsion, combat systems, sensors and weapons systems."
"Onboard the Zumwalt are two Rolls-Royce MT30 Main Turbine Generator Sets (MTGs) and two RR4500 Auxiliary Turbine Generator Sets (ATGs) that will provide a total of 78 MW for total ship power - the MTGs provide 35.4 MW each and the ATGs 3.8 MW each.
The MT30 is the most power dense marine gas turbine in the world, selected to power the most modern and advanced vessels in the US Navy, including the Freedom Class Littoral Combat Ship, as well as the Royal Navy's Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers, the innovative Type 26 Global Combat Ship, and the Republic of Korea Navy's FFX Batch II frigate."
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Below is a comparison from the older DDG 51 going to to the new DDG 1000.
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Airbus Claims It Has Put The (LIon) In Its Cage For 2016

Double announcement, the A350 is cleared for take-off for delivery by the European governance over airline certification. The second item relates to the Lithium-Ion battery where it will re-install the Boeing-like battery into its aircraft. They say they have taken a different road on mitigating the "battery problem". Actually, they are borrowing from LIon lessons learned from Boeing when they themselves didn't know what to do with it back in 2011. After extensive rewiring and back-ups on the Airbus, its okay for it to fail since they installed plan B's, MAcGyver style. Now "they" Airbus knows what to do? A good rule of thumb, is that Airbus knows how to to do it better if Boeing already did it "(John Leahy)".

Airbus to bring back lithium-ion batteries on A350


Oh well, good bye Ni Cad.

Monday, September 29, 2014

200th Post For 2014

When I first began blogging on October 17, 2012 I had no Idea how if I could consistently hold enthusiasm in providing for writing about what I see, observe and think concerning aviation. I had to quickly narrow the subject towards something regional as well as worldwide. Since I had some aviation interest in both World War II aircraft and Lockheed's SR-71 project through my Uncle's experience in both worlds of war and technology, I began a Boeing focus and vowed that I would write and support this endeavor more specifically the 787 project. Additionally, I took on all technology advancements coming from Boeing as fair game.

This was a self-imposed writing assignment. I had a massive heart attack on June 1, 2011 at work. I was pronounced dead by all the attending emergency room doctors at about 4:30 PM that day. My wife was called to my gurney side and she touched my feet as it to say a final goodbye. A miracle happened for those who still have a belief in miracles. It happened, after shutting off life support, ceasing CPR, and breathing; and stopping electrical heart shocks, with the cessation of adrenaline shots. 

They pronounced me finally dead. The team was tired from two hours of resuscitation and sweaty hard work to save me.  My wife came to me after the report was written up and she grab my feet as one last effort to say good bye. The last wires were still connected to my chest and then to the EKG monitor. The nurse hadn't finished cleaning up the room. Then it happened, "Beep" and more faint beeps. My wife holding my feet experienced the miracle. One nurse snapped her head at the monitor and started a panic rush and called back the team in a rescue attempt. They kept the heart going. I was stabilized with a steady heart beat after the death call was made earlier.

As in all cases where oxygen is starved from the Brain, I suffered anoxic brain injury. The heart specialist who had seen thousands of heart attacks, by-passes and stents told my wife, I wouldn't make it. They went in with scopes and examine my heart to see what happened. The doctor reassured my family I would really die. But I didn't. Then the Brain doctor came in and said, pack me in "Ice". He needs protection from being off oxygen when he was declared dead. His brain is swelling. 

My Cardiologist, who consulted with the neurologist, agreed on the temperature reduction for the brain. He came out to talk to my wife about the big chill effort. He told her I wouldn't last, and will die, but this is a last ditch effort to saved anything for "Me". I survived and recovered from the brain injury. My Cardiologist then "resigned" (actually quite his practice that day), and said I was his last patient after saying three times I was dead, I would die, or this is the last ditch effort to save him. After my indomitable core driven spirit took over, I made it to this very day in 2014. He (My ex cardiologist) is finishing Law School I presume.

Part of my recovery and rehab was to bring back my mental faculties. I awaken after 17 days not knowing what had just occurred. I thought I was still at work. Then it was explained, what happened to me. I had to go to rehab in order for my mental processes could establish. The long therapy road began. My memory was disrupted and in some cases gone. But during the rehab process, I was assigned a writing work in the winter of 2012. This would improve my cognizance, if I did that. I played the mental card games given me during the winter, and then started looking for a theme to blog about, which is in my main interest, is "aviation".

I have written all blogs myself and have inserted actual news and web articles, as I am limited on travel and research so you may see a steady improvement on writing and composition. It is a progression and goal for me to obtain mental parity in our world. I appreciate your reading my opinion, and insight after much research on the topic of aviation. I have multiple experiences that luckily have retained in my long term memories, where short term stuff can slid off the table on a given day. This blog is about everything I run into doing online research with Boeing. For better or worse I chose Boeing as the topic, and have become a writing advocate in hopes of making people think about what I write from research, observation and life’s knowledge.

On October 17th I wrote a test blog line to see it would work. It Did.

By the way' This is the 200th posting in 2014 and 423 over-all posting since October 17, 2012

Below is my first Blog Link in October of 2012.

All things 787: Boeing gets a break in the weather, send up 3 787s for flight tests Announcement OF BA 787 Start Of Construction


Sunday, September 28, 2014

History Lessons and Airplane Shifting, The case of The Vasa

Sweden's mighty ship Vasa never made it to sea. It just sank before it made it out of harbor. That is how Airbus feels after losing 70  A-350 orders before they eve got out of  sales port. Not only did the order sink, a full broadside from Boeing with an order for 150 777-X's shooting out at Airbus' own Vasa. The sinking salvo came from the Airbus A-350 launch customer, who abandoned ship from those 70 Emirates, A-350's  ordered. This my friends, is called a "Sea Change", that is bigger than the sunken Vasa on August 10,1628 at about 3:00 PM in Stockholm Sweden's' harbor, as it set sail for its first voyage. The wind came and she filled with water and sank, right through the lower gun ports. The wind came for Airbus from Emirates and Boeing took advantage of favorable winds. Enjoy this historical metaphor found in this video clip, as the ship "Vasa" represents advanced  technology during its time, which gave birth to follow-on  examples of huge wooden juggernauts for the next 300 hundred years. Even though it sank, it paved the way for lessons learned in ship building, and now later on airplane progress. Boeing is well positioned from lessons learned.


Readers Research Link Below:

What Emirates' A350 Order Cancellation Means for Boeing and Airbus


Some select texts are provided for a quick read from the  article.

Motley Fool Article intact below full credits found in link:

"This has raised several questions regarding the relationship Emirates shares with the aviation majors. What led Emirates take such steps? Is the airline favoring one over the other? How would this impact Airbus and Boeing? Let's take a look. "


What's Emirates' rationale?Slated to be A350-XWB's launch customer, Emirates had placed orders for 70 units in 2007 with deliveries to begin in 2019. Bloomberg thinks this delivery schedule could have influenced the airlines' decision to cancel the order. Timely fleet expansion is critical to future prospects of all Gulf airline operators because Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi are emerging as the most popular stopovers for passengers flying between Europe and Asia. Emirates has ensured a fleet growth rate of 15.5% to date since 2007. Deliveries of A350s starting in 2019 would mean Emirates' fleet expansion rate would have dropped to 10% or below in the 2017-18 period.
Besides, with the A350-XWB being a built-from-scratch plane, one could not completely rule out the possibility of unforeseen delays. The A350-XWB was initially slated to enter service in 2010, but owing to some key alterations, this got postponed to 2013. The program faced further production challenges in 2012, and Airbus had to push service entry to the fourth quarter (September to December) of 2014, with the first delivery slated to go to Qatar Airways
More orders for Boeing?Analysts at Bloomberg think that if Emirates were to ensure double-digit fleet expansion rates till the end of the decade and keep pace with other fast-developing operators like Turkish AirlinesQatar, and Etihad, it would have needed to place orders for another aircraft along with the A350s. So, analysts feel that to keep its fleet simple and maintain the desired growth rate, Emirates could order more Boeing 777s to fill in the entire requirement. Bloomberg predicts that Emirates could place an order for 50 777s to replace the A350s and maintain a growth rate of 12% through 2020. The airline is the largest operator of Boeing 777s in the world, with 140 planes in service.

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Ascend.
There could be yet another reason for potential 777 orders by Emirates. In July, the airline operator confirmed orders for 150 777X aircraft at $56 billion list prices together with options for 50 more. The duo first announced the deal at the Dubai air show last November. Boeing will start producing the 777X planes in 2017 and begin deliveries from 2020. As the aero major makes the transition from 777 to 777X, it's likely Emirates can get a deal for the current generation planes at attractive rates.
In addition, the Dubai-based operator may consider the 787 Dreamliner to structure its fleet for routes where it requires smaller aircraft. Emirates said that it would be weighing its options between the Dreamliner and the A350 in the near future. Boeing forecasts that the Middle East will account for nearly 3,000 deliveries over the next two decades. With Emirates being the biggest Gulf operator and the fourth largest carrier in the world in terms of international passengers, the American aircraft manufacturer expects to get a fair share of these orders.
What it means for Airbus?The order loss is definitely not great news for Airbus. It formed 9% of the total A350-XWB backlog with estimated worth of $11 billion. The Toulouse, France-based company had a backlog of 812 A350-XWBs that was reduced to 742 in the second quarter of the year ended June 2014, post the cancellation. 
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence.
But the scrapped deal doesn't necessarily signal a rift in the healthy relationship between Airbus and Emirates. The airline's president Tim Clark said they will consider having A350-XWBs in Emirates' future fleet. According to Clark, either this year-end or starting next year, Emirates will arrange talks with Airbus regarding a deal for 50 to 70 A350-XWBs for medium-range routes. 
Other airline operators have also gotten in touch with Airbus to find out if they could book better delivery slots in the absence of the Emirates order. Airbus COO John Leahy said that most of the A350-XWB slots are filled through 2020, signifying that the aircraft is selling well. 
The Emirates president says the A380 and 777 would remain the airline's flagship long-haul international fleet in the future. This is a big boost to Airbus' fuel-guzzling, tough-to-sell jumbo jet A380. Out of the total backlog of 189 A380s, 89 are for Emirates, and of the 142 jumbos in service, 52 are being flown by the Gulf carrier.
Foolish takeaway Emirates is investing massively to expand capacity and serve future passenger growth. The current cancellation may be a temporary setback for Airbus and a precursor to more orders for Boeing, but both aero majors' planes are part of Emirates' mainstay fleet. And there's enough room for the duo to forge long-standing business relationships with the airline.
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Thursday, September 25, 2014

Its Baaack! You know,"That Boeing Battery"

Its not what you think, and its its certainly not another battery melt down on the 787  as was the conditioned on an ANA's 787 that occurred last year. Instead its a no answer on causal battery effect for melt down. Japan, after much study, testing and theorizing cannot find the needle in the haystack. There have been changes in manufacturing standards which tighten the envelop of manufacturing defects of operational constraints, where both the battery maker and battery parameters funnel the parameters through a finer eye of that needle. It has wrapped in in metal and vented its gas in an appropriate manner. Using a just-in-case plan B, no harm no foul approach.

The needle has not been found, only new types of battery results and theories, which float the ethernet in abundance. Birds fly, but we don't know how, with 16th century sentiments remaining on the table. New batteries are being designed that can't, won't or would lose its its temper and melt down. Those new ones are years away, but possible as testing suggests. Boeing is stuck with the LIon on its needle head ready to swallow. Thank goodness for the "LIon steel cage", as is good as it is, just don't let it out of its cage.

Here is, as found below, what Japan says today. How perplexing the LIon is even when a Japanese firm makes the Boeing LIon.

Reference directly below:

Japan fails to find why ANA's Boeing 787 battery melted down



What LiftnDrag has learned since the first fire:
  • Many causal or a combination of conditions exists even though nothing is identified for certain
  • Many precautions are having a greatly improved effect on battery safety
  • Factory production updates on its LIon, gives assurances, and contributes towards reduction or elimination of meltdowns.
  • Boeing containment system works well in real time operation when it smoked.
  • Airline battery procedures for replacement and monitoring of "that battery" is keeping ahead of any problems.
 Bottom line, Boeing and partners have completely corralled the beast, but the beast is still standing, albeit, in a pen.

  • It is passenger safe in a worst case scenario, such as battery explosion, fire, and smoke. 
  • The airplane flies safely without its ground support battery. 
  • It has been made safe for the passengers during a catastrophic failure. 
  • The LIon can wait for its replacement.  
  • ANA has joined the line of people throwing its hands in the air over the issue.
Safety redundancy is a paramount safety process for airlines flying today. Discovered weaknesses in theory are back-up by other situational safety measures.

The LIon battery is in the same class found in all Airplane systems, where situational events are supported by additional flying options and employment of safety solutions or regimens. 

Example One: What if the power is lost on board ( not a battery issue)? It has several options to land, one is a Ram Air Turbine (AKA RAT). This was standard equipment even before the LIon battery existence.

Boeing or its partners will never stop in its pursuit of the Battery solutions. Industry is currently closing the LIon gap with new and more powerful batteries that won't heat, smoke or destabilize under operation.