Will The KC-46 Be The Smallest Snowball Coming Down Capital Hill?

The Pentagon and Capital Hill create military spending projects and the "Hill" funds those same projects. A continuous flow of cost expands as a project keeps rolling down Capital Hill's slopes to a catechismic stop at the completion of a project. Think of past endeavors for the Air force. The F-22 which halted at 187 in number for its type. Far short of the initial desired want. The snowball stopped because of money and the cost of support per copy. Then the F-35 came along, a multi-role fighter where is was to be built relatively affordable for all services off the same design points. That is not working so well. It was intended to field thousands of this type and also sell thousands to its allies over a long period of time. The Navy, Marines and Air force are waiting in the wings for its proven batch of aircraft. The cost is rolling down the hill collecting more snow during the process. It will make one large snowball by the time it stops. The Military is not certain for its reliability yet as it goes through the paces.

Reference Link:

Why Boeing's tanker is Pentagon's least contentious multibillion-dollar program

The Navy bought a concept called Littoral Combat Ships. In fact they hedged the bet by building two types from different boat builders. The concept is for a combat ship that plies the coastal waters, like those found on the Pacific rim around Asia. Currently the beef is, they are in testing and they appear slower than was wanted during the the initial proposal period of requirements. So goes the money down Capital Hills Slope in Snow Ball Fashion. It just keeps getting bigger.

The KC-46 tanker project demonstrates not just new technology bolted onto an 20 year old proven airframe design, it uses an all new purchasing process addressing the snowball problem for military projects of its types. Procurement of new weapons or equipment that will stop expanding the cost problem that it currently experienced in former projects. The KC-46 procurement is contained by these types of constraints.

• The provider of aircraft (Boeing) is to use an existing and functional airframe meeting all mission requirements. 
• Boeing submitted a bid price that is fixed, any overrun is absorb by manufacture. 
• A buffer amount is provided as a result of Air Force change management during build. 
• Financial and timely delivery risks are born by Boeing.

The list for Boeing's do's and don't's is far Longer, as one can see it gets very complicated for the KC-46 project to succeed for Boeing. The GAO has recently completed a milestone review of progress and cost expended on the project. The main concern from the first review completed in 2013 indicated Boeing had gone through a significant amount of the "buffer money", mentioned earlier. Boeing responds with a report of where the  money was applied. Early on at the out-set of the project; there where multiple changes required, and start-up contingencies for a new project of this nature. By the end of the next year those issues would retire as the project matured. The GAO has a concern that the money has become scarce for purposes of including additional engineering into the final design process, and establishing the build process. There is very little contingency money remaining as the KC-46 project moves forward into its pre-production phase.



However, Boeing has a couple cards up its sleeve. One being any changes to the original design required by the Air Force are added on cost. Boeing can absorb cost of the project by using components from its supply chain or within the Company's R & D
catalogue. Boeing has the  ability for cost reduction when the build begins. All current cost are a result of all its new implementations for building this multi-role tanker. This last GAO report is seen more of a "We're watching you Boeing"  because some project money is dangerously low. After all the negatives, the GAO could muster, it seems that Boeing is in good shape for moving forward on the KC-46.

The 767 frame flies well and is strong. The biggest risks are any new technology bolted on the aircraft. Like fuel filling appliances. Defensive counter measures and a host of other features never used before for this type of aircraft. Boeing is banking that it has those items covered and its just a matter of installing and testing. Its not like an all new F-35.  This is a seriously tricked out 767 for military purposes.

Oh That Black Bird Is Back

Many years ago I was intrigued with Lockheed, "Skunk Works", and more importantly the SR-71 project. A top secret  project that left many fantasizing about its merits. I had one family member involved in its R & D and later on as a contracted factory rep with the Air Force, representing Lockheed and the SR-71. I gained little or no insight for its capabilities. All I learned came from books on the subject, and various nods, shrugs, and smiles from my uncle. He gave me a wealth of commemorative objects for milestones flown in the SR-71.



Then out comes this "Second Black Bird" from Boeing and Air New Zealand, refreshing all my memories of those heady days of the SR71. The times when it out flew over Russian, Lybia and Vietnam with missiles shooting at it during the cold war and the Vietnam conflict. How it ate and devoured Fox Bat engines (MiG 25). At the time, Russia (USSR) bragged, it had the world's fastest jet, yet the SR-71 flat-out, out ran every thing with wings, and almost all the missiles of the day. I remember those days, it was reported that the SR-71 skipped around the edges of space and back.

However, here comes the 787-9 from Air New Zealand, with those same eery markings of the SR.71 in an all Black hull.



Those same soulful stirrings are awakened again while looking at this beautiful Black Bird from Air NewZealand. Even though, I never rode in/on an SR-71, only a special breed of Aviators or Astronaut types did, I crave those child hood dreams through this new 787-9 aircraft. Today, a passenger only has to gaze out those huge windows and dream of going Mach 3+ in a SR-71, having its big Boeing wings flexing out its muscles in relative silence over the Pacific. The Kiwi 787-9 will ply those same oceans were the SR-71 once often flew, as it secretly observed the world scene.

Welcome back "Black Bird", you are a graceful and elegant super plane that will make many a dreamer happy like myself.

Even though this paricular Black Bird misses an all titanium hull, and extending engine nacelles for hyper jet speed. It brings its own swagger with its all plastic hull, super computers and newer and more efficient jet engines. There is a taste of titanium in the Air New Zealand's "Black Bird". It doesn't go skipping off space, but the passengers have plenty of space with its travel comfort while passengers are getting there safer and more rested.

The SR-71 did not have a wind tunnel for testing Mach 3+. Engineers of the day used Lake Washington, and various hydroplane hulls when determining final configuration. No wind tunnel would emulate Mach 3+ for testing wing and body configuration.

This new NZA "Black Bird" had a mass of computer models, wind tunnels and no slide rule-ruling for figuring out the optimal hull and wing build. In many ways this "Black Bird" is so far superior to the old Black Bird in its own rights. Both aircraft were purpose driven, but this one, the 787-9, measures how far the aviation frontier has travelled with its passengers. The old Black Bird is relegated to museums like Smithsonian. I salute the SR-71, and applaud Air New Zealand for its first 787-9 in all Black. A fitting tribute for aviation's progress.

The Marooning of The A350-900

This is an Airline Tale of great complexity, "The Marooning of the A350-900". The corporate wise guys from Airbus have marooned the A350-900 as the stand alone champion in the wide body market. Customers are rapidly shifting flagships over to other options. Boeing's Other Options, known as (BOO) has scared many Airbus' customers to a wider offering, fitting Boeing orders into its complex market niches. What has BOO done? It has shrink the A350-800 down to 34 on order as Boeing keeps selling both the 777X's and 787 family of aircraft. The Airbus sycophants (customers) move A350-8's orders up a class to the 900's, fattening that order book through its customer loyalty impulse. Customers own markets have no fit with the A350-900 since the A350-800 can't cut it, it goes ahead and absorbs an A350-900 instead. Route adjustments fall on customers of Airbus. This could bring on thin route condition where the former   A350-800 order turned A50-900 may have half empty airplanes flying those same routes once marketed for the A350-800.

That condition has left the A350-900 marooned in the wide body world as its fleet family members can't hold its oars against Boeing's family of aircraft, Airbus is marooned on "A350 Island". "But what about the A350-1000 who has a comparable order book with the Boeing 787-10?" The answer is, "exactly my point!" In less time that the A350-1000 has been offered, the 787-10, the 777-8 and the 777-9 have amassed a staggering number of sales for all classes which is more than easily twice the A350-1000 number of orders. It leaves the A350-9 marooned to fight the sales "Air War Battle" in the market place. In fact, the customer’s order for the A350-1000 has weak numbers, even though it has had multi-year head start on both the 787-10 and the 777X family.

Airbus is pondering what to do with its A333-300 as it considers going for a NEO platform or kill the A350-800 program. What a choice before them! If they kill the A350-800, then Airbus will have lost the plastic wars. If they reinvent the A330, then it means they take a step back and are pretenders in the plastic wars. Airbus may consider adding extra floors on top on its offices, just for jumping purposes. They biffed it big. It’s back to national pride of three countries to pull this out of the dumpster. Today (literally) Airbus is flying around in its only viable A350-9 model with Airbus employees, testing cup holders and footstools which are placed on board a fully plushed out A350. That A350 fancy seats makes it look like the 787. The dumbed down operating systems convince buyers it’s a safer way to go with little performance penalties. The 787 has developed a safety record exceeding expectation for a new aircraft of its complexity via FAA audit.

Airbus is marooned, with no help coming during the next decade. They half-heatedly threw in on the A350-row boat. They can't figure out how to inflate sales numbers upward to get off the island. The A350-800 chamber has sprung a leak and is now down to 34 units under 787 pressure. Love for Airbus is blind, they still have suitors with 34 on order for the A350-800.

When judging its one trick pony, the A350-900, you sense the staff is huddling in one corner of that Toulouse building. Yes, they have a preponderance of A350-900 on order, but it’s not a one size fits all aircraft. Many of those orders rolled forward from former A350-800 class of orders. Thus marooning the plastic order book, and making it a marooned one trick pony in France and Germany.

What is missing in most discussions of who should buy from Boeing or Airbus, is the value indicator discussions. Those discussions on value hold equally with the fuel economy. The Boeing family of aircraft hold more value. First for its flying customers and second value for its on-ground operations. Boeing has imbued a tremendous amount of value into its aircraft. Airbus does offer a lot of add-on bling to its frame as illusions of something new is happening on board. But it isn't happening at the level Boeing has achieved. The never before implemented advanced systems on the Boeing has lived up to its promise, and can't be matched at this time. Closely monitoring the Airbus statements, they are careful to, "never say that they have something advanced of Boeing". That is a strange observation for an all "New" Airbus aircraft. They have nothing forward and beyond Boeing. The fact of the matter is the main difference of how they assemble with plastic panels on a frame, as Boeing rolls out single unit barrels with internal frames as part of the barrel design. All other differences are not advancements for Airbus, but it is the best they can do on short notice technology. Marooned again at the drawing board.

The only thing that would rescue Airbus in this quandary is scrap the A350-800, scrap the A330 Neo idea, and build something all new while the A350-900 still has an order book. That will get them (Airbus) off the "Island".

The Three Phases Of The 787 Orderbook

The 787 is experiencing three phases of order maturity. It has just completed phase I and is part way through the second phase. where corporate cards are now on the table with defensive ordering. The Spring Offensive was tumultuous and complex with out a rational thought of only getting hands on the best Aircraft ever built. Vicious counter offensives were mouth as casualties mounted. There where exploding batteries. brakes on fire and can't catch break months going by as 787 orders mount clear up to over 850 initial orders where there weren't orders before for this type of aircraft. Kayos ensued as Boeing's battle flag flew high, and so goes the epic phase I of airplane conflagration.

3 Phases of The Boeing 787 Order Book and sales

1. Spring Offensive
2. Winter Defensive
3. Resupply 

The second phase started about 6 months ago where airlines started mounting its offensive through defensive purchasing. Lessons learned in the first phase is you can't keep a good idea down or in this case a good airplane down. The idea was promulgated forward with a knock off breach from the A350's. It catered to the loyal customers and sometimes not so loyal Boeing customers, like JAL Routes needed protection by ordering more 787's, because they now have progressed out of the frying pan into the market place fire. Lease companies  like Gecas and ALC ordered forty 787-10, because they had customers who were in winter defensive mode. "A hora nunca", was the battle cry. 787-Tens for everyone who still want to win. Never mind that knock-off A350-1000. Its paltry 151 sold types don't even come close the big X bird from Boeing who has closer to 300 sales  or almost double of Airbus' 150 A350-1000 units. The winter defensive is about ordering sooner rather than later to protect your routes with really good aircraft such as the 777-9.

Resupply, Phase 3 for sales:

Boeing has not entered this phase officially, unless you count ANA's recent 14 787-9 ordered. Resupply comes on the heals of financial reports of several watched airlines. It is important for an airline to know that the 787 "Sea change" has shifted bottom lines. More resupply orders will be coming forward replacing dividends for 787's. Phases 3 is an important period as it could validate Boeing's big 787  gamble.

What has Airbus Done? A paltry attempt of reinvigorating its A330 as a cheaper knock-off of an 787-8 with its no start A330-NEO, which isn't an option for most serious players. The A350-1000 is a quick and dirty response to anything Boeing with plastic or metal wings. Bigger is not better, even when the bigger is going to be significantly smaller than Boeing's better 777-X. The leaders of said European companies and Desert like countries should take a vacation and clear its collective heads before listening to the same sales pitch one more time as it signs on the Airbus bottom lime.

A concluding observation is for a perfect ordering storm is waiting for Boeing. The factors contributing to this storm is as follows:

• Financial numbers demonstrate a companyis in the plus from 787's
• Financial Resources are made available
• A definitive defensive plan for more 787 is required as routes become available.
• Resupply and fleet expansion are the same thing. The first Born 787's (phase I) buy more follow-on 787's. 

This storm is forming for the last half of 2014 as Boeing begins to run the inventory of back ordered 787-8's decked to the "nines" going out the door at 6-4 split a month. Most of, or,  if all the factory and supply issues are retired and under permanent observation as part of quality control measures. 10 months is more than duable at Boeing has mapped a reasonable production rate. It just a matter of time before Boeing arrives to that 10 a month benchmark 

Boeing's 1st Quarter Revenue Deposits From Its Delivery (Sticky Note :<)

  Boeing's First Quarter Numbers For Aircraft Delivery 

737	747	777	787	Total

1.  35                     6         4         45   January

2.  36          2         8         4         50   February

3.  44          2        10       10        66   March
--------------------------------------------------

T# 115       4         24      18       161   *Totals  

Projecting the Year  Based on First Quarter Performance X's 4

     460       16       96       72        644  GT 

*Production as a Simple Projection:

The 787 should deliver closer to 100 units and the 737 will deliver closer to 60 more units. In all a more accurate probablity of 700 + aircraft for Boeing is a better number than just extrapolating 1st quarter numbers times 4. The trend on the 737 is at 42 a month from this point forward, and the 787 trends towards 10 a month during the second half of the year without question.  

  

LOT Makes Money On "The Dreamliner Effect"

The DreamLiner Effect is simple. Buy Dreamliners and make money.

Travel Agent Central;  Link, and Publication Credit.

LOT Polish Airlines Achieves Profitability in 2013, First Time Since 2008

April 3, 2014
Even though LOT has taken many administrative actions affecting many processes and staffing. An audit pointed out weaknesses, where LOT responded and acted through change management. The central core change was the 787 it has purchased. LOT projected in 2012 that it needed to go through an effect-change by structural decisions towards profitability. The first big item affecting the bottom line was the 6, 787's it purchased as the core of its fleet. It makes money. LOT then address a more efficient way to run its business.
Five years ago LOT did not have a way out of its dismal position. The change management would not be enough to over come its loses during operations. It would probably fail.Enter the "Game Changer", the Boeing 787. Combining a change management approach with the Game Changer has made LOT profitable. It is at the cross road of breaking out as an airline leader, and carefully anticipates each subsequent Dreamliner in how it will play in its fleet.
The problem comes into play as more airlines acquire the Dreamliners. The market place has taken notice and is placing its Dreamliners near LOT's airspace. Airlines like Norwegian and British Airways are plying the same destinations. 
LOT needs to carefully decide where the DreamLiner needs to go, just as they have stated. Its becoming a "DreamLiner Chess Match".  LOT considers how the 787 Queens Bishop can cover Chicago. Norwegian Airlines move its 787 like pawns on the chess board with seasonal coverage in resort regions of the world. Japan Airlines builds its chess board with 787 castle like routes. Each route is run with precision and the returns are computed directly to its financials. That is a quick review of what the DreamLiner has done for them. Least we not forget Ethiopian, the jury is in and they are guilty of being successful with the DreamLiner before and after its debilitating fire at London/Heathrow. 
The Dreamliner chases off competition from (those) other market beaters. Passengers are getting use to a DreamLiner experience and are now considering it the expectation of air travel. The Boeing problem occurs when a 787 Glitches and the passengers are booted off the 787, because of a false code. While the 787 is checked, they may find themselves on an A330 replacement. I would call that experiance a "Does Not Meet Expectations 787 Depression", (DNME787D). 
LOT has a few chess pieces in the game. They are critical for its survival of where they will place them on the world game board. Each 787 follow-on delivery is vital to its profit margin for years to come. The LOT "Board" has some skin in the game, and is destined not to loose. In 2012, I mentioned the Airlines to watch and what they did with its 787. Those particular early 787's  affected each customer's bottom line. The short list was and still remains import, as a bell weather result for the 787 financial impact.

• Ethiopian
• LOT
• Japan Airlines
• ANA

I also said Air India, would be something not to watch as it was in so much turmoil, and remains so. 
Then Japan Airlines blinked. It will be interesting to watch them as they finally establish its 787 fleet. Look at its bottom line number before they take delivery of the A350, and watch the side by side operational numbers. JAL's blinking has failed a reflex for the eye lid back open.
If everyone of those early customers who were skidding around the loss meter is now substantially flying above the P/L line, then the case is made that the 787 lifted up those same customers by the boot straps in a turbulent market place and makes them money.

3MM average (corrected/updated)

Goal +/-                         01/2014 02/2014  *03/2014  *Projected Mo
Month Deliveries              4             4              10 8
3 M-M-avg                         8.0            6.3          6.0 7
Production Goal               10             10           10 10
Production Trend (+/- )   2.0             -3.7        -4.             -3

Wow, what a month. The moving average absorbs the FAA audits, factory configuration changes in Charleston, and the wing crack issue by putting out 10 787's. Further development on the 787-9 has offered another copy for preparation for flight, as Boeing begins to back fill 787-9's for its customers. Once it has completed testing by this June the moving average will climb easily to 10.

End of April will show Boeing slowly climbing out its hole of about 8 units delivered and gradually rising Moving average towards 10. Boeing will reach the 3MM of 10 by the end of June. All current problems will be resolved on the factory floor by then, baring any new reported issues.

As one can speculate Boeing is overly ambitious about hitting the 10 a month pace. Moving ten units a month out the factory door doesn't necessarily translate to 10 a month moved off its property, when cash is exchanged with its customers. A broader scope is for a financial impact from delivery, and the narrower scope goes out from the factory an efficiency standard for production managers. The ten a month goal is factory production only. The 10 a month moving average goal is an expectation of complete 787 sold to its customers, which is a proper way to look at the revenue stream from each facility.

Looking above at the chart, the Moving Average at the end of March shows an increase to a seven average, since it moved 9 units in March. The traded aircraft hits the bank as a revenue value entered into the accounting books. Boeing would like to average 10 paydays a month on the 787 program and will reach that goal by end of June. Investors should heed this revenue stream. If Boeing continues its advance on its aircraft through production and actual delivery then investors can monitor more closely the financial health of this project. I would expect that an average of ten units will enable Boeing a projection of Break-even in a more accurate manner. At break-even, Boeing will have the high ground for its investors as well as with its marketing team.

Flight Global Explains How The ANA/Airbus Single Aisle Order Sums It Up For Airbus.

Airbus Order Analysis excerpt: Flight Global

"Airbus will be pleased to have dislodged Boeing as ANA’s single-aisle vendor, having lost out to the US manufacturer a decade ago. That 2003 737 deal was a surprise at the time, as ANA was already established as an A320 customer and had been expected to stick with Airbus.

The airline retains 15 A320s delivered in the 1990s, but the majority of its single body fleet comprises 737NGs, with 37 in service, Flightglobal’s Ascend Online database shows.

However, orders for the 777X series were already outstripping those for the A350-1000. Airbus order data to the end of February lists 189 commitments for the -1000, while – assuming the ANA deal is firmed – Boeing has already garnered 300 orders for the revamped 777.

To an extent, the A350-1000 does not compete directly with the 777-9X, ceding around 30 seats and 200nm (370km) of range to its rival, but Airbus will nonetheless have pitched it to ANA. Save for theA380, it could offer nothing else."

The April Fools Day Winging IT Post Corn Beef Day Expose'

Flight Global exposes the Airbus Conundrum very clearly in the last paragraph above, where it is wedged between the rock and the hard spot of wide bodies. The Japan Airline order from last year, now becomes a one off anomaly in Asia as Boeing successfully wooed ANA with the Boeing wide body order. ANA was given solid assurances for upping the 787-9 orders. It has the most 787 flying of any single company in the world. Therefore, it has the best operational data of any airline over the last three years. Even Qatar or Air India can' match ANA numbers with its smaller fleets. ANA went ahead and ordered a substantial Amount of 787-9 with 14 units for fleet renewal of replacing its older 777 types in its fleet. As stated in the Flight Global article, Long ago Boeing wrestled away from Airbus by selling a fleet of single aisle 737 back in the 1990's. Airbus has now flipped ANA back against the MAX. Since the single aisle market is so volatile, it is possible to take some consolation that the MAX is several years behind the NEO for an ANA earlier first delivery. By the time these new NEO's are delivered the delivery books for both manufacturers are stuffed. 

Boeing (Dreaming) will have to deal with that by out producing Airbus at closer to fifty a month to fill the single aisle market with loads of Boeing 737 MAX types. They may want to consider a 32 a month NG line side by side with a 32 a month Max line for the next seven years. That would actually catch Airbus and sell more airplanes for an impatient market place. ANA considers the differences on the NEO vs MAX are small enough to get one NEO sooner rather than one MAX later. The MAX has to climb rapidly out of its R & D bunker rather quickly. The NG won't compete with the NEO in a head to head match, only as the NG can from a capitalization perspective. Its cheaper monthly interest cost buying the NG over both the MAX and NEO, and a cheaper NG with a diminished interest expense, off-sets its higher cost of operations. Flying an airplane with a smaller performance margin is paid for with the capitalization savings during its service.

An example of the capitalization model in simple numbers is as follows: 

How the  better performance aircraft cost more at the bank and has an off-set by higher interest expense costs, against that improved performance. However, an NG fleet may compete well with the NEO on the bottom line for that reason. Buying new equipment recharges a company's depreciation schedule. ANA needs to consider newer aircraft sooner, since the depreciation on older aircraft loses a tax affect as it ages. Airbus is closer to being ready than Boeing while ANA needs the pole positon for single aisle tax benefits. 

NG Purchase Price:                                          NEO Purchase Price

50 Million                                                            70 Million

-Annual Interest Cost on 50 Million                +Annual Interest Cost on 70 Million 

+Increased Net fuel/operation NG/NEO          - Decreased Fuel cost on NEO over NG

NEO Comparison For ANA customers.

NG keeps it fresh for RyanAir





RyanAir approaches its 170 Boeing 737NG purchases with a model that will compete on the bottom line with both the Max and NEO. Once those newly ordered 170 need fleet replacing, the MAX or NEO capitalization will have decreased by then, and warrant purchasing the newer generation aircraft at a cheaper than today's price.

ANA has taken the high road by model type, going with a guarantee of being closer to the front of the NEO line if they chose Airbus over Boeing. Airbus went stumping just to crack back into Japan's market. It has covered both wide body and single aisle with two different Japanese airlines. Boeing was in there slugging it out with Airbus for orders. In the Japan Airlines case, they were too late to the horse race gate. In the second attempt they won the race with Airbus with the wide body order exposing Airbus as a pretender not a contender. The A350-1000 is about as far out for delivery as the 777-9. With all things even Boeing won. What ANA also won was a great deal is made with Boeing using the threat of Boeing loosing another close call in its special market found in Japan. The ANA order with Boeing, exposes Airbus' Achilles heal with a thin line up.

Boeing to start demolition May 1 for 777X Everett wing plant

Boeing to start demolition May 1 for 777X Everett wing plant

So begins the onslaught of the 777X in Puget Sound Region. The Puget Sound Journal lays out the wing plant spot. Once 1.5 to 3.5 Billion $samolie are laid out for another ginormous 1.2 million square foot building, the dump trucks will roll and dump where those four buildings now stand in the Blue circle.  Reading assignment is given by opening the above Link and is required by all Aviation students.  The big building in the top middle center with the Iconic black and silver roof is where everything happens in Everett building for big aircraft.

3 million pound autoclave ovens, need a deep base of harden underlayment provided by thousands of dump truck loads of hard material and cement that will support three monster ovens and autoclave machines. 

A written report by aviation enthusiast is due in the Morning.

Bending Numbers Like Beckham Makes a Compelling Case In Japan

The recent ANA order has brought out the Analyst spirit in an Airbus weighted curve for the NEO and a Logical replete for the  777-9. The A350-1000 does not meet the 777-9 nine in an open market.  Several references  of a less than optimal 787-8 is now a secondary option when new orders will be opened in the next 5 years sounds like more Airbus Think Tank verbiage. Boeing has the future high ground in the orient with the 787-9 and 787-10.

Read Link:

ANA Goes Shopping: Our Analysis of the Order

After reading this article I don' t no where the numbers come from for the NEO aircraft for a model not yet in service. I don't know the Max numbers as well. However, I do know each airline customer lining up for a Max or NEO purchases get to gloat over its choice.  I tried to come to a conclusion for the ANA case on the NEO, from a seat cost per passenger and the distance range for the NEO. This being called an analysis, does not give a citation on raw numbers, but agrees with ANA's sensibility on how it will replace old equipment with new NEO's and New 777-300, -9's.

The Airbus A350 -1000  can't hold up against the 777-9. ANA filled its play book with more 787-9, as it will replace all older 767's in time. Where does this leave JAL with its wide bodies from Airbus? It leaves them hoping the Airbus sales team told them the truth about the Bus.