First is a quick review of 2013 findings:
It was found that Boeing has a star player, The 787:
- The Battery Fires found Boeing production delayed but not out.
- The multiple glitches reported found the 787 indoors too many times.
- Norwegian Airlines requested remedial assistance from Boeing
- Japan Air Lines Slapped Boeing in the face with an Airbus A350 Order
- Air India started acting like a real airline with Boeing's many 787 problems
- 182 new 787 orders is an Indication the 787 is a sound and valued business venture.
- Boeing is resolute with its 787 out of belief rather than the other option of "do over"
The second star player is the 737 MAX and it was found:
- The 737 had an enormous year orders, about 797 orders and counting.
- Design progress is an indication Boeing has a target better than the NEO
- It was found that a sufficient number of customers agree.
- Ryan Air has its own strategic plan using the NG (175 ordered)
- Dual Flight Feathers is the new Black.
- The 737 Max is doable and on time, not fashionably late with this model.
The Final Stars are the 777-8 and 777-9
- Boeing found on paper it can beat Airbus with a wider aspiration in a metal body.
- It was found that the right launch customer is the best recommendation.
- More 777 orders are ready for 2014
- The 777 is going to be built on the "Best of Boeing" called "wings and things".
- 280 orders and commitments are on paper
2014 Recommendation:
Boeing must keep its head and not do "Crazy Ivans" in the boardroom. They have a well thought out strategy, "don't fix it if ain't broke" is your 2014 mission statement.
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Now for the 2014 peanut gallery, "2014 strategic out look".
The 787 program will see a diminishing glitch factor in the program by June 2014 it will have to implement its marketing swagger, once again, by announcing the 787 is the "New Black" for airlines seeing red during 2013 when it grounded the 787. The 787 will have nearly 200 787 in the air by end of 2014, before the A350 is delivered. The question is, will Airbus carry the fear that the A350 can't match the 787 on any level? The reliability question will be retired and the 787 will reach its true fulfillment of the most advanced and reliable aircraft ever built. The 787 is the new standard for passengers and that they will measure everything against the 787. By year's end, more aircraft from Boeing take-off with more people flying on them, also by the end of 2014 it could be said that Part I of the Boeing 787 Marketing Strategy will be anchored into the company's big picture game plan. Another 100 787's will be booked with confidence in the aircraft, its just not a good concept with amazing promise, its a reality with a budding legacy. The A350 and A330 becomes old before everyone eyes as the 787 dominance emerges. The press has to go back to school and learn new words besides "three years late" or "glitch". Writing it over 500 hundred times doesn't make a article worthy of a pay check.
The Max is the airplane no one saw coming and will surpass expectation before it is built. Boeing is great at doing what it does, continuous improvement cycle will make the Max better than the paper airplane it sold to its customers. Boeing tends to error on the side of conservative estimates. The Max in 2014 will show in test it will exceed the sales pitch by several percentage points. The engine and aircraft refinements will make the NEO just a customer preference with Airbus not the lead in the Market. Another technological advancement on the Max will be revealed before the end of 2014 that will excite single aisle crowd. Boeing is secretly targeting putting its best with the best, i.e. Renton with the MAX and Everett and the 777. Boeing is going to fix Charleston in 2014-15 and turn it into an "Everett" like success it needs.
The 777 in 2014 will see ground breaking infrastructure in the NW region with a wing plant and other ancillary production points needed for the program. Its not just for the life of the 10 year union contract, it will enable Boeing to go to the next stage in manufacturing advanced aircraft for both the military and commercial aviation. Boeing has a defense industry plan and new technologies developed in the commercial, share a military application when completed. The 777 technology is a synergistic core for other applications throughout the corporation. As is the 737 has been applied to the military and 767 is is new tanker program. Therefore, placing the new 777 in the NW supports Boeing's "other" ventures such as drone technology is found in commercial applications. Especially the zero visibility landing and take-offs for commercial aircraft. The NW in the future will become the US Air Force key resource center.
In conclusion 2014 will be a reconciliation year for the 787 and a hay maker year for the 737 and an ah ha moment for the 777-8 and -9 as customers really examine the the proposal, boosting another 150 sales beyond the the first 280 sold and in the file drawer. It is concievable that the 737 will continue sales numbers in 2014 where Airbus will realize that both the A350 and NEO will be second choice aircraft after customers make comparisons on the bottom line.
Go back to the mid-late 1990s, and Airbus and Boeing reached opposite decisions about whether it was worth putting several billions into developing a 747 successor. Boeing opted for a relatively cheap rewinging and upgrade to produce the 747-8 and Airbus went for the 380. Boeing reckoned on a market of around 700 aircraft by 2030, Airbus reckoned 1700+. By 2006, market estimates by independent experts were in the 400-800 range.
Developing the A380 cost about €11Bn. It's at 259 orders, some 8 1/2 years after it's first flight. It's never yet hit the production rates that were forecast when the programme was launched, and by next year, it looks like Airbus will be having to build "white-tail" aircraft - i.e. built in advance of orders.
The original breakeven point (i.e. recovering development and production costs) was supposed to be 270 aircraft, but as development was delayed and the dollar:euro exchange rate fell, that rose and when anyone last made an announcement it was north of 400 units - that was in 2006.
Things have got worse since then. Sales and production have both been slower, there have been fixes needed to things like wing cracks, and production costs have risen. It's also probable that there's been much heavier discounting of aircraft than originally anticipated, as Airbus needs to fill production slots. there have been claims of discounts as high as 40% against list price.
Airbus is now only saying that the aircraft will break even on a unit basis (i.e the sales price will be higher than the production cost) in about 2015 (based on comments in 2010). Every aircraft delivered until then will have made a loss for Airbus. Note that it's only AFTER unit breakeven that any contribution is made to recover development and finance costs.
There have been 61 net orders over the last five years - a rate of 12/year. The delivery rate is about 20-25/year (and was originally supposed to be 30+)
They've been utterly quiet on when programme breakeven will happen for several years now. On a reasonable commercial guess, allowing for Airbus carrying the €11bn development cost on the books, plus delivering over 100 aircraft at a loss, plus the fact that Emirates has them by the balls and will be driving a VERY hard bargain for the aircraft they're taking, that breakeven point will have now to be well above the 400 forecast in 2006 - doing some crude numbers, and assuming the white-tails at best break even, I suspect north of 600 units.
Oh, and of the aircraft currently on order, 30 are for an airline in receivership - "Kingfisher" of India.
Sooner or later, Airbus is going to have to take a huge write-down on the development cost of the A380. Which is going to mean that the French, German, UK and other governments will lose all of their launch-aid loans.
It's a hellish impressive pain - but it's looking like a commercial disaster." End Quote
Exactly my friend!