Merry Christmas and What's Under The Tree. (Unwrapped Update)

How to fit a Mini Jumbo 777X onto the airport runway, Jetway  or gate without calling on the bulldozers, scaffolding, and Jack hammer crews for a biennial disruption of airport  operations?

Could Boeing pull another rabbit out of the hat for Christmas?  Click & Check out prior blog on this topic.

A design is in the offing that makes more sense, than building new airport configurations around the world. When you can build a mini Jumbo easier that fits all airports anywhere.  Boeing has not announced the 777X and is still working on several fronts with its customers, engineers, and marketers as it gains the sweet spot to sell airplanes that will overwhelm the market with a solution for all players.

The next cool idea is under study before my 2015 deadline for the Aviation Renaissance (AR),  which I have set arbitrarily, to announce another sea change event for aviation. The first one was the 787 type announce in 2003. Where Leonardo Da Vinci rolled over and said, "Whoa "! This one will be "the bigger is not better, but better is best", accomplishment. The incorporation of everything 787 pioneered, is going into the 777X on a right sized scale, leaving the Wright Brothers to building bicycles for a living, if they were alive to do so. 

The folding wing mini Jumbo concept is under serious review.

These are my talking points for the 777X:

• Enhanced engine performance from 787 project.
• All plastic larger barrel hull design
• Extended wing geometry for fuel economy, flight and  load performance.
• Commonalities with Boeing suite of aircraft.
• Lessons Learned From 787 translate into new design efficiencies for 777X

Let The Aviation Renaissance Begin!

Okay, Art Meet Function, Function Dance with Science.

Music Please, The AR Ball Begins

Leonardo da Vinci Started It All

Make a bigger airplane with a small foot print mini Jumbo. Adding folding wings and a wider barrel that will fit into the 787 slots at airports is another game changer.  Adding a right sized wing makes a more flexible aircraft for engineers to optimize lift, and cruise performance. The optimized engine variant with weight saving non metal hulls, could revolutionize air travel once more leaving the  A-380 at the gate before Airbus turns a profit on its behemoth white elephant. Not only to mention the ill fated A-350, as a loser out on performance and passengers, Boeing has time to get it right on the 777X. My question for Boeing as follows: is the 777X just a feign for what really is intended, the 797X? Boeing's 777-300 can sustain a graceful ride into the sunset for the next 5-7 years with tweaks and improvements. Charting towards the 797 course and a 2020 timeline for the 797-X. My own wonder is more about what they will call the line of aircraft after exhausting the 7X7 numbering sequence, rather than coming up with a new renaissance aircraft for 2020.

Large airports in the world  set airplanes  to an international standard referred to as Code E — which limits the wingspan to 213 feet. A folding wing accepts this standard easily.

The Airbus A380 double-decker jet, with a wingspan of 262 feet, is a category higher, Code F.

Airbus A-380 is limited to a few airports that have spent millions on an airport configuration for Code F .

A code E mini Jumbo with folding wings will enable the 777X that all 767,777.787.747 currently serve. This allows Boeing to better market a business plan serving 200-450 passengers per departure.  Leaving the A-380 in its own niche market found in those airports big enough to park it.

One question remains for Leonardo.  What where you thinking when you drew a (blue print) sketch of a round corkscrew wing? Or was this the product of too many grapes pouring out ones corkscrewed, cork bottle stopper, into one's cup? The Era of AR has begun, everyone enjoy the party!

Fly On 787

Air India's Sees A Cash Flow Change With 787

Air India, my favorite disgruntled Boeing customer sees a cash induction for each "787 Induction". Now that Air India is operating a long legged flight route to Germany from India.

Fill These Seats And Problem Solved, For Air India

Travel Biz Link and Quote:
"Air India, which is struggling to make money on international routes, has managed to turn around its loss-making Delhi-Frankfurt sector after it deployed Boeing's 787 Dreamliners on this route since October this year, as per an ET report. The national carrier, which has ordered 27 Dreamliners, maintains that the superior technology of this aircraft will help the company reduce maintenance and fuel cost. “The airline is able to save at least Rs 20 lakh per flight after the Dreamliner is deployed. After four long loss-making years, we are making profit on this route now,” said a top Air India official, who didn't wish to be identified."

For those folks who are not in tune with foreign currency translation. The brief analysis is R's 20 lakh equals about $44,000 per flight savings. Even though the 787 does not hold as many seats as the 777-200, the main complaint coming from operations is canceled since, "Air India is not filling all those seats on the 777".  When that day comes Air India will be ready to order some -10's.

Back in November, 2012 on an earlier Blog, I said this about a hypothetical flight from Frankfurt, Germany to Kyoto, Japan using  the A-330 vs. the 787.

" The difference in cost is now a  difference between (25,760 gals., for the A-330)- (19,000 gals, for the B-787) equaling 6760 gallons in fuel savings flying the Boeing aircraft.  6760 (gal) X $2.969 a gallon cost provides the airline with savings on one-way of about $20,000, and $40,000 round trip." 

Since Air India is reporting a $44,000 round trip operational savings on the Delhi to Frankfurt round trip. The 6,600 mile round trip includes all operational costs not just fuel. Fuel savings of 20% and operations of 30% savings. This is an exceedingly good number for Air India.  They will want more aircraft now! However, they need more money now!  The Government of India has its hand in everything Air India.  Showing these numbers through the press may light up some bulbs in the government's thinking, on how they can get more loaded airplanes on long legged routes. There is money for everybody flying the 787.

Who's On First What's On Second For The 787

Uresh is the ultimate eyes, ears, and throat of Boeing's factory floor for the 787. His All Things 787 can be found through clicking on the hyper link.  Uresh has the journalistic high ground of knowing from raw numbers what is happening at both Everett and Charleston plants. I admire and acknowledge his due diligence for giving us all the latest confirmed numbers of what's happening  in those plants. An observer, like Sherlock Holmes may deduce with extreme accuracy what is going on behind the curtain with those aircraft. I like to use his score card just to illustrate this point.

Status Snapshot								Disposition Total
								Testing Complete	1
								Undergoing Fatigue Testing	1
								To be assembled in Everett	23
								To be assembled in Charleston	7
								Parts Arriving	3
								Undergoing final assembly	10
								Storage	8
								Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	12
								Change Incorporation and Re-Work	9
								Pre-Flight Prep	4
								Pre-Delivery Flight Tests	5
								Non Customer Flight Tests	0
								Ready for Delivery	3
								Delivered	46
								TOTAL	132

My fast production flow analysis::

10 aircraft are being built not ready for delivery but will be out the door by February and delivered by spring.

8 aircraft are built, on hold in various stages of final completion and could be out the door rather quickly depending on face saving status of customer.

9 Aircraft are going through the do-over process in various stages from its redo work orders, all are assembled and are on the cusp of sitting outside.

27- The number of aircraft that are residing behind the curtain waiting for the final stage calls for 2013 is going to make for stout delivery months through June of 2013
==================================================

Early January and February ready for delivery  numbers

4-  are out of the great Boeing Barn awaiting its dance partner for B-1 flights
5-  are spending time  doing wraps-up before its ready for delivery stamp and have already cycled B-1's
3-  are there for customers to fly away.

12- aircraft have been invited to the customer flight line dance and should go out in the next 35 days. Pending customer cash flow, induction availability, and customer work force readiness.

Rumor is that Boeing hired more valet attendants for spring break-up of its flight line.

(Update) Boeing's All Electric Problem Generates More Smoke

First there was fire in the 787 control panels, back on its last runs, during test completion of the long delayed project. Then there was a United Aircraft reporting a generator fault and diversion flight because the number six generator failed, and Qatar's number 6 generator shut down on its 3rd Aircraft delivery flight. In total a test copy, two United aircraft and a Qatar unit all experiencing "all electric problems", when flying the 787. What does this hold for Boeing's aspirations in selling this Bird to the whole world? Let us quickly refine the inference.

Redundancy, due diligence, and extensive test process have won the day so far. Without it,  would be told a different story. I believe these lessons are not lost on Airbus. Had Boeing rushed through three years of delays and did not conduct a copious amount of work on an all new technology aircraft, I would not want to think how it would magnify the risk.

Is it the generator, or the a newly designed power panels? That is the question before Boeing. So far they have endured the angst of Akbar Al Baker from Qatar, and the disappointment from United's management. But to the Boeing Company's relief, they have been manageable progressions of teething its new aircraft, that is so different than anything before flown.  The 787 looks likes a metal aircraft until its wings lift skyward, has the same isles to walk down, and even the seats are close enough together to make money and remind passengers its an airplane after-all. Faking passengers into thinking, "Nothing new here, just newer and more convenient passenger gimmicks in play".

The 2010 panel fire established the importance of doing it right the first time. A redesign of the area forces out the opportunity of sloppy mistakes causing a fire, or other problems in the most critical area of the "all electric architecture" design.

Generator Fault events 2-4 (recent in the news for United and Qatar) are the reporting errors (faults), causing to shut down the aircraft's generator #6,  because something wrong is detected, and therefore # 6 ceases operation. This is a built-in safety mode after detection of fault.  Boeing and everybody else would like to know what happened from the control panel to the generator.  Software, switching, or firmware glitch? Installation problems, inferior parts, or design problem? These are all the questions needing answers, and goes beyond just the basics. Redundancy saves the day, but it also could be a redundancy tuning problem.  That is just one example of what engineers are asking of its programs, controlling all electrical flows with continuous back-up systems. Having this preventative redundancy system, protects from catastrophic failures, is done through its sequencing through various check-offs of its systems, and may cause a minor blip shutting down a generator in an irregular manner.  What you don't want is a cycling of that type of problem that will shut down other generators in succession over time during a flight. Once again Boeing and its partners have a lot to test, even after its 3 years of delays. This problem sounds glitchy and can be solved with some extra testing, workings and implementation.

Qatar's concern is a underlying challenge of Boeing, for an aircraft performing as advertised. The CEO, Al Baker does give recognition for the aircraft's performance and general nature of a fine aircraft. His own fire is not for the electric control panel but for principals of having a 100% working copy of the 787 for its customers.  Boeing is doing its job of extinguishing that fire with its hat-in-hand extinguishers, by continuing forward with Quality Management (QM) of continuous improvement through the birthing stages of a new technology.  Continuous Improvement works and is found in the leading manufacturers in the world. The built-in safety measures allows Boeing to continue on this path. Risk are mitigated and solutions are found, refined and implemented.  This is what Boeing is saying, when it states in a dismissive manner to a problem, that any new project has these types of problems during the start-up, and "we" will deal with them immediately, even after three years of delay. A strong downplay is too much by Boeing, as is a strong overplay by a customer.

Those close to the situation, probably know what happened already, but need to validate that assumption with a real replication of the incidents. I would not be surprise to see "a in storage test 787" flying again soon, focus on some customer concerns, and electrical testing issues. Boeing will validate the problem and certify the fix.  Right now "All Things 787"  has its score card at 0 Non Customer Flights. That may change soon.


Update 12/22/12:

ZA005 is now on the flight schedule! Do not know if this is related to electrical issues for testing. It is in the Non-Customer Flight Category. I can assume ZA005 is rolled out for flight testing for any new issues that Boeing is going to resolve. Note that ZA005 is a GE, and United/Qatars are GE's. So far the Rolls equipped aircraft have not shown an electrical issue like the recent GE powered ships.  Boeing could be testing systems on ZA005 comparing to the faulted systems on the delivered GE powered aircraft, in order to determine what is different on delivered aircraft with its test model. Definitely checklist items for problem solving is on board the ZA005 along with any other new upgrades for testing.