What's Next? F-51 Mustang II!

Long ago,  back in 1995, there was an F-22 idea. Now in 2020, there is a sixth Gen possibility because of the F-22, and F-35 Lightning II. The tale of the tape reports  there are 168 F-22 assigned to the military, one crashed and two in a storage status while having 13 USAF to play with if need be in storage. The total comes 185 (186 built) F-22's for the last 20 years. The F-35 Lightning II is a strong spin-off for the F-22 all-purpose warfighter. It gets its roots from the WWII P-38 Lightning which was unparalleled, during WWII. It chewed up the Pacific and then the German ground movement not prepared for defense from its own ME 109's. The P-38 was that significant.

Now we are the 6th generation threshold where CAD computers can tough it out with a new breed superseding the F-22. MY proposal is simple:

Build 300 F-51 Mustang II's for the USAF(200) and (Navy's 100) a few (?) with a lift mechanism for the UNSMC austere capability for its amphibious force offloading ships from the USS 6 America class Landing Ship Dock without an amphibious deck included. It would have the capability of the world's toughest fighter not unlike the F-22's own chops. Invisible to radar imaging and exceptional situational awareness and having extreme offensive capabilities when like to all other weapon systems in the battlespace. If a prototype was built now it would be just in time by 2030. Of course new engines!

Embraer and Boeing Still at It!

A deal or "redo” in April is still an aviation Item. It is reported Embraer will come to terms with Boeing for its "E" series of aircraft such as its E-172, CNBC: “Embraer Chief Executive Francisco Gomes Neto said it was still early to discuss such opportunities as the company is studying a new five-year plan. He added that partnerships could involve products, engineering, and production.” 

 • Brazilian planemaker Embraer said it expects to sign new strategic partnerships in the future. 

 • The announcement comes after Boeing abruptly canceled a deal in April to take over the company’s commercial jet division. 

 • Embraer Chief Executive Francisco Gomes Neto said it was still early to discuss such opportunities as the company is studying a new five-year plan. 

Motley Fool: 

 “Embraer was left at the altar by Boeing and is now attempting to find a new partner for that $4 billion deal. Triumph is attempting to shed poor-performing businesses after years of underwhelming results but faces uncertain demand for the remaining units it would like to sell. GE has cut its overall workforce by about 10%, but some bears argue the company's cash issues are even worse than investors realize.”

When Customers Want A 777X going forward?

Boeing is stumped about who will buy the 777X going forward here are my candidates: 

 • Emerging new airlines 

 • Freight companies never considered 

 • Legacy airlines with long legs in place 

 • Expect a dozen 777X orders from emerging new Airlines like Vietnam's Bamboo 

 • Volga will order 6 and will go for the 777F 

 • American based airline who has not weighed-in like United or Delta are 6 hanging orders at this time. 

• Then 2024 is a fleet renewal for the 777-300-ER for a total 0f 20 units in play as an estimation

The A-380 Died When Travel Itself Was Not The Point

The A-380 was a marvelous concept and a technological feat only scouted by the 747 lines of aircraft.  However, the 747 had a long run before the A-380 showed up and a point to point model for travel was "what people wanted". The beach chair instead of the A-380 seat chair. The A380 was not the vacation but the destination came back into vogue. The long airport lines, customs, or inspection was no longer what passengers wanted. The passengers wanted about 300 in line acknowledging time was money more than a crowd going for the same beach for which an A-380 could land.

In other words, the real estate did not grow in Martinique so it could allow a bigger crowd to begin its vacation from the opposite departure gate before embarking to paradise. The vacation starts at the beach, and not at the jetway. People's vacation starts with a brochure not the airplane seats for 500 people at a crowded airport! The A-380 was a bad idea for people wanting to escape each year. It was a bad idea if conducting business from a budget account of $19.99 beach towels or toilet paper. It was a bad idea sleeping in first-class when a passenger had a Swiss alps lodge awaiting a long winter's nap just two hours away.

The A-380 was a bad idea period. Economy for the masses once a day didn't cut it for the profit line when filling up the A-380 with Jet-A. A smaller jumbo could in effect get a passenger to its destination to a business or vacation destination while not trying to make a journey as part of the vacation.

Here comes Change From A Boeing Perspective

Harold.Net Article:

Boeing lines up plane sales once meant for Russian carrier

The detail on how Boeing resold the Volga airplanes is contained in a written declaration to the court by Maria Akiyama, a Boeing Commercial Airplanes director who was Volga’s principal contact on the contracts.

• On May 4, Boeing “finalized the resale of the 747-8F airplane Volga refused and has scheduled delivery of the plane to Customer A,” Akiyama states.

• Customer A is likely UPS, which is the only remaining airline with 747-8s on order, and would likely be willing to take Volga’s remaining order for three more 747-8s if the Russians walk away.

• The court filings also include an April 2 purchase agreement with another unnamed airline, Customer B, to purchase two of the three 777Fs originally meant for the Volga.

• The agreement outlines a series of “credit memos” for the two 777Fs, with all financial details redacted, that likely stipulate the discounts Boeing is providing. And an additional memo makes clear the deal is conditional on an agreement to purchase multiple Boeing models.

• “In recognition of Customer’s partnership with Boeing as a 777 and 787 customer in [REDACTED], Boeing will issue to Customer a multi-model aircraft credit memorandum in the amount of [REDACTED], contingent on Customer executing definitive agreements to purchase (i) Model 777-9 aircraft and (ii) additional Model 787 aircraft no later than June 30, 2020.”

• The 777-9 is the first version of the new 777X, which began flight tests in January.

• There are a limited number of potential airline customers that fit the above details. The latest issue of Cargo Facts, an air freight trade publication, speculates that Customer B is most likely either All Nippon Airways (ANA) of Japan, EVA Air of Taiwan, or one of the large Chinese state airlines.

• Boeing declined to comment on sales discussions with customers.

The 777X Is Not A Bad Idea

The newly minted 777X was rolled out in the midst of the COVID-19 debacle. So panic-stricken food stampers don't want to fill its seats but the affluent will come anyways since they believe, "if it is built they will come" frame of mind since they own a cabin in Wyoming anyways and they are not the problem. The homeless are the problem! humankind is pathetic as shopping carts filled will toilet paper make people somehow safe!

Come on people, I overestimated how panic can drive industry from toilet paper to the 777X range of technology for people who have proven its humanity to humanity. I can't buy Epsom salts for my bath but I can buy a ticket to Singapore on a 777X during 2021 with the affluent sitting feet away near the front door of that aircraft. 

It somehow has better toilet paper in the first class/Business section where the premium economy gets junior mints for its trouble of going for $100 less than the pointy end of the airplane. Somehow we are all safer paying less for more in an 8,000-mile airplane riding on the same air the passengers all breathe.

The 777X doesn't stop Covid-19 but it does get you to Switzerland's ski slopes and stows your equipment of furs and skies near an airport in Pasadena, CA. Isn't the human race grand when it storms the airport gate with a roll of toilet paper? Idiots! I want my Epsom salts and candles for the bath you are getting when spending money from someone working to make you rich.

The 777X Full Circle

It is time to go full circle with the 777X Back in 2012 I started with: 

The 777X Project Is Going Underground Call It Project X

It was December 30, 2012, almost eight years ago I appreciated the Boeing 777  from this posting blog site. It was the beginning of this blog. And now we have the 777X mega bird going through test flights, with everything 787 at its fingertips for its parts bin, plus a wider cabin than the Airbus XWB A350 family of Airbus aircraft. Link-back above to gain an appreciation for 2012 renderings and data with the new 777X which is longer and wider than that first summary report for the 777-300-ER offered in late 2012.

Notice the 2012 777X had no folding wings but had everything else in the size constraints. Shuttle little changes have made the 777X much improved since 2012's estimations. Dig into the 2012 blog article and know that the 777X is going to rock the aviation world opposite of what COVID-19 has done to it.

Oblige Boeing!

Qatar is demanding Boeing and Airbus to Oblige and remix its order with either maker and both makers are dithering with that consideration. The first maker to blink wins in this case, as the Boeing 777X program is at stake for Boeing and the A350-1000 is the potential loser after all votes are counted for new orders.

I Told you so Link

Boeing is well-positioned for talks as its 777X program is several years out before the first delivery of its 777X  can occur. Boeing must extend and offer further out for its 777X to 2024 which it should easily be able to do going forward. Having a robust order book is more important at this point in time rather than having itself a "Boeing" marketing pride moment.

Face it, Boeing, you have been played by COVID-19 and was burnt. You are another victim of the invisible enemy. You must regroup and face reality by starting with new orders compliant with its customer's needs for success. That is to say, that is your source for success is "customer's success". Sell a new or muted order number to Qatar, as Al Baker, who has recognized for itself without dithering or hassles from the old status book it must abandon in face of this crisis. Take your hits now and move forward as more hits are on the way!

The new norm is taking or acquiring what's available and making wise decisions. The acquisition process has new rules and it changes daily! Be ready for what's available or possible in "reality" with your prime customers like Qatar. Firm an order with Covid-19 outliers. 

Boeing should hope for 10 777X ordered with an option for 40 more over the next five years aligning a possible future. Instead of demanding 40 firm 777X orders with 10 options, while hoping for a world-beating order book that will be wrought with customer risks. 

Advertise this approach while partnering with your aviation customers. The world will want a Boeing product more than Airbus because of these philosophically embedded approaches to the current reality. High ground is the key ground until Covid-19 ceases to exist.

Bigger, Wider, and Longer Is Out,The 787 Is In

Where does that leave the A350? Not in the primary order book for airlines. The 777X, 747, and A-380 are all in the infirmary status where the A-380 became terminal. The 787-8 order book may have a resurgence during these troubled times of pandemic. Fill seats is the 787's strength while flying to the far reaches of the globe. A 240 seat 787-8 is what the aviation doctor ordered, not the 300 seats A-350 type.

 I Told you so Link

Look to see the next big order being consumed by the airlines ordering the 787 and not the A-350. Its lower risk and higher ROE using the 787 machines is better than the A-350 which has a higher risk basis than the 787.

Trump is RIGHT! Mark Zuckerberg DEFENDS him in interview.