My Blog List

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Oblige Boeing!

Qatar is demanding Boeing and Airbus to Oblige and remix its order with either maker and both makers are dithering with that consideration. The first maker to blink wins in this case, as the Boeing 777X program is at stake for Boeing and the A350-1000 is the potential loser after all votes are counted for new orders.

I Told you so Link

Boeing is well-positioned for talks as its 777X program is several years out before the first delivery of its 777X  can occur. Boeing must extend and offer further out for its 777X to 2024 which it should easily be able to do going forward. Having a robust order book is more important at this point in time rather than having itself a "Boeing" marketing pride moment.

Face it, Boeing, you have been played by COVID-19 and was burnt. You are another victim of the invisible enemy. You must regroup and face reality by starting with new orders compliant with its customer's needs for success. That is to say, that is your source for success is "customer's success". Sell a new or muted order number to Qatar, as Al Baker, who has recognized for itself without dithering or hassles from the old status book it must abandon in face of this crisis. Take your hits now and move forward as more hits are on the way!


The new norm is taking or acquiring what's available and making wise decisions. The acquisition process has new rules and it changes daily! Be ready for what's available or possible in "reality" with your prime customers like Qatar. Firm an order with Covid-19 outliers. 

Boeing should hope for 10 777X ordered with an option for 40 more over the next five years aligning a possible future. Instead of demanding 40 firm 777X orders with 10 options, while hoping for a world-beating order book that will be wrought with customer risks. 

Advertise this approach while partnering with your aviation customers. The world will want a Boeing product more than Airbus because of these philosophically embedded approaches to the current reality. High ground is the key ground until Covid-19 ceases to exist.





Monday, June 1, 2020

Bigger, Wider, and Longer Is Out,The 787 Is In

Where does that leave the A350? Not in the primary order book for airlines. The 777X, 747, and A-380 are all in the infirmary status where the A-380 became terminal. The 787-8 order book may have a resurgence during these troubled times of pandemic. Fill seats is the 787's strength while flying to the far reaches of the globe. A 240 seat 787-8 is what the aviation doctor ordered, not the 300 seats A-350 type.


Look to see the next big order being consumed by the airlines ordering the 787 and not the A-350. Its lower risk and higher ROE using the 787 machines is better than the A-350 which has a higher risk basis than the 787.

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Trying new google blogger out

Blogger activates on the laptop by using the Blogger tab at the top. 


"Winging It" Tab on the top line header.

Orange +  sign starts blank sheet.

> publish

Eye+  preview or create  posting activator

Disk symbol save


Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Let's Not Forget Ryan Air 200 seat 737 Max 200

The airplane that got away did not getaway. Boeing is building a Max 200 for Ryan Air by the hundreds as soon as Boeing starts-up it 737 Max production program. The 2020 count should be 55 units in 2020 when there is none to date. 125 are scheduled going forward but what if this is Boeing's answer to COVID-19. Maybe it is having 200 seats on a 737 is the answer as airlines reconfigure its alignments from the threat of this insidious virus.


Galley changed, and bathrooms adjusted, but people going from LA to NYC remains efficient and money is made. The Max 200 is the engine that could of, should of, and would of at this time. Dam first class and full airplanes ahead as Covid-19 die into the history of the aviation market place.


Tuesday, May 26, 2020

The Chapter 11 Stopwatch

LATAM group filed chapter eleven bankruptcy today. That is to say, it gets some protection from its old failing business model assuring a newly reorganized business model during the COVID-19 crises stays viable. Chapter 7 US Bankruptcy is a forced sell-off protection of assets against overwhelming debt on the balance sheet, Chapter eleven is more directed towards an organizational reorganization of a company's operations by eliminating debt through sell-offs. Well, LATAM just proposed to the US Chapter 11 bankruptcy law today, as it attempts to protect it from failure as a company. Counting 19 leased aircraft would be returned immediately. Mostly the Airbus types for 15 and 4 Boeing 787 types going back to the lessor. The bleeding has just begun. Airbus and Boeing's product is being sent to the bench until COVID-19 is solved. A sell-off of owned airframes could follow pending economic realities.



"However, the company, carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), felt the bankruptcy protection route would be the best option for a turnaround. Under Chapter 11 protection, the airline’s management team will remain intact. The provisions of bankruptcy protection will help in reducing disruptions to the carrier’s operations while protecting the interests of shareholders as its balance sheet is restructured to fit the present demand scenario.
 
LATAM Airlines, which competes with the likes of Copa Holdings CPA in the Latin American aviation space, secured funding from its shareholders, including two of its largest — the Cueto and Amaro families, and Qatar Airways — to provide up to $900 million in debtor-in-possession financing. Major U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines DAL also has a 20% stake in LATAM Airlines. Notably, LATAM Airlines has approximately $1.3 billion in cash on hand. Both Copa Holdings and Delta Air Lines carry a Zacks Rank #3.


LATAM Airlines, which reduced capacity by 95% in April and May due to the drop in demand, so far has not received government support. Presently, the carrier and its affiliates are in talks with the governments of Chile, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru for additional financial aid.
Apart from LATAM Airlines, Colombian airline Avianca Holdings AVH, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), filed for bankruptcy protection earlier in the month due to demand slump and high debt burden. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


Shares of LATAM Airlines have plunged more than 68% since the beginning of February due to coronavirus-led travel demand woes. The industry has declined by 54.1% in the period.



It stands to reason both Airbus and Boeing are in the Laurel and Hardy days of transportation for a new and advanced 757 offering or A-321 parry. Airbus has nothing announced for its case but is working big on a new line-up soon as its custom, and Boeing will go big using its off-the-shelf technology it holds as a life vest during storms. Airbus is ready to send forward its C-series it had bought from Bombardier.


Commercial Aviation is in a "Sea Change" today and it will spool up with a convenient solution using fewer model types having more effectiveness through seats and efficiency. In other words, it will mitigate risks with sweet spot aircraft they were trending towards anyways with right sight efficiency and purpose. A prediction is single-aisle 757's, which will go 180 seats and a 4,000-mile range. and an A-321 doing the same as a new 757. A New 767 is in play using 787-300 standards competing with the A-330 NEO but just nipping at the A-330-NEO edges of range and seats. That would be 240 seats and 5,000 miles.
Gone would be the 737's 50-year-old concept.

I was thinking back in 2012 re-do

Monday, May 25, 2020

Boeing's Resurgance

Amid 737 Crisis, COVID-19, and bungling the product line in such a disfigured manner, Boeing has squandered its lead over Airbus. One can only think amateurs are running the show in some kind maniacal self -promoting manner. If I were president of BA stock, I would hire a psychiatrist first, then an engineer from some American aviation engineering college secondly. It would be a more effective and efficient Idea than what the Boeing Boondoggle is doing now. Come on now boys make some money from the common sense venue at the next trade show

Sunday, May 24, 2020

LOOKING BACK 6 YEARS ON THE A-380

Emirates could be Last Dog A-380 Standing But biggest 777X Holder

Since the pandemic arrival, some airlines have stored their A-380 fleet or returning the A-380 to its lessors. Emirates has the world's largest fleet having 115 units. You could say it's the order that built the A-380. 


Emirates has not announced a fleet reshuffling as demand on the A-380 will increase each time an airline scrubs out its own A-380. Emirates is well positioned with its A-380 during the next 3 years because the A-380 market is dying. The result will be the same with a question, will the A-380 used market emerge?


With the customer love about the superjumbo, Airbus can't or isn't at this time able to revive the concept, and Boeing is offering a niche blaster with its 777X's. Even though Boeing's 777X order book looks stalled and looks anemic, the 777X is a follow-on of the ever-popular 777-300ER. Once Emirates keeps its A380 fleet intact at around 115 units Boeing will sell 777X in onesie and twosies per airshow. The 777X order book will grow because that 777 niches will be exposed from the A-380 death-wake with a very capable aircraft. It takes a long-time to expend the 777-ER so airline needs a backfill and that is the 777X but at a higher price which will cause the airline to run to ground any of its 777-300ER's on inventory before ordering a replacement aircraft.


Emirates again can again wait a while before contemplating fleet renewal aspirations for the right price and time for the super Jumbo niche. Ten years into the is a safe time subset for Emirates to play with its fleet cards. An additional 777X order will come at the five-year mark as the A-380 handwriting on the wall turns into a Boeing order voucher/contract for 40 777X's.


Can Boeing wait for this opportunity to unfold? Yes it can! The order unfolding will occur from customer pressure. Emirates and Etihad. Etihad has already booked 25 and Emirates 115. The North American group is keeping its powder dry until after the first 777X delivery is completed and several years of operation are in the books. During 2024 the predictive number for the 777X is 60 777X's ordered for the year from various customers.